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Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week May 22, 2017–May 28, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Special counsel appointed in Russia probe

  • UK’s May unveils election manifesto

  • Merkel’s prospects bright after state elections

  • Corruption scandal touches Brazil’s president

The Week ahead:

  • Flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices are released globally on Tuesday, 23 May

  • The Bank of Canada meets to set interest rates on Wednesday, 24 May

  • The minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting are released on Wednesday, 24 May

  • Preliminary UK gross domestic product data are released on Thursday, 25 May

  • Preliminary US GDP data and durable goods orders are reported on Friday, 26 May

  • The G7 summit begins in Taormina, Sicily, on Friday, 26 May

For the week,Global equities saw little net change this week, but there was a good bit of volatility midweek as political chaos intensified in Washington. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 2.25% from 2.34% a week earlier while West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to $50.30 a barrel from $47.50 last week amid signs OPEC and major producers such as Russia will retain output curbs through March of 2018. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), jumped as high as 15.50 at midweek before slipping to 11.90 on Friday. The week began at a placid 10.80.

NIFTY- 9,427.90
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,276barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,644 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.64

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key indices clocked modest gains in the week ended Friday, 19 May 2017 as hopes rose for a possible interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after the latest data showed a sharp fall in headline retail inflation and after reports suggested monsoon rains are expected to arrive on the southern Kerala coast two days ahead of schedule boosting sentiment. Good monsoon rains will further ease inflation going forward. 

Goods and services tax (GST) Council finalising GST rates for the goods and services further aided sentiment. The Sensex gained in four out of five sessions of the week. The Sensex and the Nifty, both hit fresh record highs on intraday as well as on closing basis during the fortnight. 

The S&P BSE Sensex gained 276.77 points or 0.91% to settle at 30,464.92. The Nifty 50 index rose 27 points or 0.28% to settle at 9,427.90. The gains of Nifty were less compared with Sensex's gains in percentage terms.
The Mid-Cap index fell 1.41%. The Small-Cap index dropped 1.93%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,Macroeconomic data, Q4 results of India Inc., trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in week ahead. 
The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month May 2017 series to June 2017 series. The near month May 2017 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, 25 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.89%. The company launched new Dzire sedan nationally on 16 May 2017. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017. The petrol variant of the vehicle is priced between Rs 5.45 lakhs to Rs 8.41 lakhs and diesel variant between Rs 6.45 lakhs to Rs 9.41 lakhs ex-showroom Delhi.

Bajaj Auto fell 0.73%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 13.44% to Rs 862.25 crore on 8.7% decline in total revenue from operations to Rs 5212.83 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during market hours on Thursday, 18 May 2017.

Tata Steel surged 12.05%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. The company reported consolidated net loss of Rs 1168.02 crore in Q4 March 2017, lower than net loss of Rs 3041.88 crore in Q4 March 2016. The company's consolidated net sales rose 29.6% to Rs 33424.09 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017.

Lupin rose 4.84%. The company launched Cialis (tadalafil), an oral PDE5 inhibitor, for the treatment of erectile dysfunction (ED) in adult males. Cialis was shown to improve erectile function compared to placebo upto 36 hours following dosing. The product is currently marketed in over 100 countries. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 16 May 2017.

Hindustan Unilever gained 2.81%. The company's net profit rose 6.19% to Rs 1183 crore on 6.39% rise in total income to Rs 8969 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 17 May 2017.

State Bank of India rose 3.7%. The bank's net profit rose 122.72% to Rs 2814.82 crore on 7.83% increase in total income to Rs 57720.10 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during trading hours on Friday, 19 May 2017. 
Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 112342.99 crore as on 31 March 2017 as against Rs 108172.32 crore as on 30 December 2016 and Rs 98172.80 crore as on 31 March 2016. The ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances stood at 6.9% as on 31 March 2017 as against 7.23% as on 31 December 2016 and 6.5% as on 31 March 2016. The ratio of net NPAs to net advances stood at 3.71% as on 31 March 2017 as against 4.24% as on 31 December 2016 and 3.81% as on 31 March 2016. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,data on Markit flash Eurozone composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May, indicating health of the combined manufacturing and services sectors for that month will be announced on Tuesday, 23 May 2017. Markit Flash US Composite PMI for May will be announced on the same day. Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI for May, indicating health of the manufacturing sector will also be announced on that day. Data on new home sales in US for April, measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale for that month will be announced on Tuesday, 23 May 2017.
The Federal Open Market Committee will issue minutes of its previous policy meet held early this month on Thursday, 24 May 2017. The Federal Reserve had left its influential interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on 3 May 2017, citing a recent slowdown in growth that it said was likely transitory. The preliminary figures of US' Q1 gross Domestic Product will be announced on Friday, 26 May 2017.


Global Economic News:

Trump visits allies as pressure builds at home
US president Donald Trump embarked on his first overseas trip as president today, leaving behind a swirl of controversy in Washington. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Vatican before a stop in Sicily for the G7 summit. On Wednesday, the US Department of Justice appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate Russia’s intervention in the 2016 presidential election as well as any improper contact between Russian agents and the Trump campaign. Revelations that Trump disclosed extremely sensitive intelligence to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador during an Oval Office visit last week added to the firestorm.


Tory platform says no Brexit deal better than bad one
UK prime minister Theresa May unveiled the Conservative Party manifesto on Thursday, setting the stage for the general election on 8 June. On Brexit, the manifesto says that no deal is better than a bad one and that the United Kingdom seeks an agreement with the European Union that would take the UK out of the single market and customs union but continue close ties through a comprehensive trade and customs agreement. Meanwhile, the UK this week reported that its unemployment rate stands at 4.6%, its lowest level since 1975.


Merkel’s party flexes muscles
German chancellor Angela Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, has performed extremely well in German state elections in recent months. This potentially paves the way for Merkel to retain her post when Germany holds federal elections in late September. The CDU won the regional vote in Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, last weekend, unseating the Social Democrats in state elections for the third time since March. Earlier concerns over Merkel’s unpopular immigration stance appear to have faded amid a solid German economic recovery.


Brazil’s Supreme Court authorizes Temer bribery investigation 
Brazilian president Michel Temer, who came to office after the impeachment and removal from office of his predecessor, DilmaRousseff, was placed under investigation by the nation’s Supreme Court this week after allegations surfaced that Temer was taped condoning the bribery of a witness in a major corruption scandal. Temer, in a nationwide address, vowed not to resign, saying he did not buy anyone’s silence. In the wake of the allegations, stocks and the Brazilian real both plunged on fears the recent economic rebound could stall amid fresh political uncertainty.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Macron appoints center-right PM, pledges to overhaul Europe
After being sworn in on Sunday, French president Emmanuel Macron on Monday appointed Édouard Philippe as prime minister. Phillipe is a member of the Republicans, and his appointment is an effort to woo support from the center-right in case Macron’s En Marche! party fails to secure a majority in next month’s parliamentary elections. Later in the week, during a meeting with European Council president Donald Tusk, Macron vowed to work for the overhaul of Europe. Tusk praised Macron, saying Europe needs his energy, imagination and courage.


Japan’s growth picks up steam
Japan’s economy grew 2.2% in the first quarter of the year, its fifth straight quarter of growth, the longest string of gains in over a decade. Exports and domestic demand were both solid.
As of 17 May, with 458 companies in the S&P 500 Index having reported, Q1 earnings are expected to increase 15% from a year ago. Excluding energy, earnings are seen growing 10.7%. Revenues growth is estimated at 7.2%, falling to 5.3% ex energy.


NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANITRANS

106.25

HINDUNILVR

1022.00

ITC

295.50

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


CRISIL

1853.35

DIVISLAB

603.90

GLENMARK

658.00

RCOM

30.30

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


ADANI TRANSMISSION

17.80

tATA STEEL

12.05

CEAT LTD

9.17

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


GLENMARK

-13.10

BHARAT FINANCIAL

-12.62

SREI INFRA

-11.69



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (22May)
Month Bill Auction
Tuesday (23 May)
New Home Sales 
Wednesday (24May)
MBA Mortgage Applications& Existing Home Sales
Thursday (25May)
Natural Gas Report
Friday (26May)
Consumer Sentiment


Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd For Target Rs.542.00

After a strong up move, ZEEL has retraced closer to its support zone of moving averages on daily chart and consolidating around the same. Traders should not miss this chance and utilize to initiate fresh longs in the given range.


Recommendation 
Buy Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited  @520-524  Stoploss 510 Target 542.


Domestic Market Overview 
Markets may see some recovery, GST rate specific actions to be in limelight 
The Indian markets reeling under global pressure slumped and major benchmarks dropped close to a percent in the last session. Today, the start is likely to be mildly in green and some recovery can be seen after the sharp fall of last trade. Traders will be cheering the GST Council finalising tax rates of goods and services under the four-slab structure with essential items of daily use being kept in the lowest bracket of 5 percent. The Council fixed the rates for over 1200 items under the Goods and Services tax. Lots of daily consumption items such as milk, fruit and vegetables, jaggery or gur, foodgrain and cereals have been exempted from tax, while others such as sugar, tea, coffee, edible oil, mithai, and newsprint have been placed in the lowest slab of 5 per cent. Luxury cars will attract 28 per cent GST plus a cess of 15 per cent, while small petrol cars will face 28 per cent plus 1 per cent cess, and diesel small cars 28 per cent tax plus 3 per cent cess. Consumer durables, which now face a total tax of about 32 per cent, will be taxed in the 28 per cent slab.


The panel will discuss tax rates for gold and some other items today and could meet one more time if necessary to decide rates on remaining items. There will be sector specific buzz based on GST rates and steel stocks may see some uptrend as the GST rate on coal has been fixed at 5 percent. The move will bring down the input cost and would lead to stabilisation of prices. There will be some buzz in banking sector too, as the RBI has eased the norms of setting up bank branches and said branches manned by either bank’s staff or its business correspondents where services are provided for a minimum of four hours per day for at least five days a week will be called a banking outlet. There will be lots of important earnings announcements too to keep the markets in action.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,300

9,338

9,365

9,427.90

9,468

9,520

9,600

Nifty loose firm momentum and tanks around 100 points from previous session’s close. It tested support of upward sloping trend channel and closed near the same in the end. The trend strength indicator (RSI) came out of an overbought state now on the daily scale.A breach below 9400 could distort the firmness & hence could seen as a strong support area. Momentum traders should maintained as a trailing stop strategy for existing shorts.
Bank Nifty: Low made  was 22660 and close was at 22700 so bulls were able to hold the low of gann angles, holding the same we can bounce back towards 22820/22940/23110. Bearish below 22600 for a move towards 22500/22350. Bank Nifty made high of 22900 doing our target as discussed. Also Low made was 22628, so bulls were able to protect 22600 and close above 22700 suggesting bulls are still in game as bank nifty holding on to gann angles, Bulls above 22800 can see next move towards 22940/23110. Bearish below 22600 only, As per time analysis expect a trending move in next 2 days. 

Conclusion: 
Markets, in line with global peers, reacted sharply to the news that the US President tried to influence federal investigation, raising doubts over his policies ahead. Mostly sectoral indices, barring IT, ended lower and settled around the day’s low. Besides, caution ahead of the beginning of the two-day GST meet also induced the participants to book some profit.
Markets are slightly overheated after the recent rally and finally got the reason to lighten up. We feel 9350 would be crucial mark in Nifty ahead and any decisive slide below that level will derail the momentum. However, traders should see this as intermediate correction, which is normal and healthy for sustainability of the broader trend.

Know the proper timing when to invest

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If you are able to know how to invest in the stock market then you can always get good profits from the market. You have to get in hold of a good website where you can get to find many useful information of the market. If you fail to find the right time to invest in the market then you might have to lose all your money. You cannot just invest your money in the stocks and lose it. You need to know that it takes quite a long time to understand the market well. You also need to know about the working and functioning of the different concepts of the market so that you can clear all your doubts in the market. 

If you fail to understand the market then you would be solely responsible for all your losses that you incur in the market. In case you feel that you have understood the market well then you can surely reap profits from your invested cash in the stocks. So try to gather as much knowledge as possible by reading books on stock market or even watching the business news. In thus way you can know the market scenario and the right time to invest in the market. You should get to know the proper timing when to invest.

 

Do not be impatient

You might have seen people who lose their money investing in the stocks. One of the main reasons why they fail in the market is that they do not have enough patience when they invest in the market. You need to have good patience when it comes to investing in the market so that you remain on a much safer side. You should also not try to get influenced by your ignorant friends to invest in the market. They do not have any good knowledge of the market and they try to invest blindly. In such cases you have to lose your money investing in the wrong stocks. So the more research you make in the market, the more knowledge you can gain in the market. You have to get to know about the past performances of the different stocks in the market so that you can get the one that would help you in getting some good profits from the market. You can also get to know about the online stock trading where buying and selling of stocks is done all online. This type of trading is very popular because it helps in saving a lot of your time and money. 

 

Plan your decisions accordingly

You have to make your decisions very carefully and you should also try to determine which types of investments would be profitable for you. You have to know the advantages of both long term and short term investments. If you are ready to invest in the short term investment then you can go for day trading. But you should know that there are some investors who feel this type of trading to be very risky. So you should know all the important information of day trading. You would be glad to find that you have invested in the right stocks. You might lose some of your money in the market but this should not let you feel down. You should try to have good confidence on yourself and try to know what went wrong in the previous stocks that you incurred losses in the market.

 

Visit genuine websites

You have to make sure that you try to visit genuine websites so that you do not fall prey to websites that might try to rob off your money. You can have a look at the comments or feed backs of the different visitors so that you can know which would be the best website. You should try to put your best foot forward in order to reap the ultimate benefits from the market.

 

Thus you have to know the proper timing when to invest. If you are able to get the right time to invest then you would not have to worry about anything regarding your investments in the market.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week May 15, 2017–May 21, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Trump agenda tougher sell after Comey firing

  • Macron cruises to French presidency

  • South Korea elects new president

  • Volatility touches multi-decade lows

  • IMF expected to rejoin Greek bailout

The Week ahead:

  • China reports retail sales and industrial production data on Monday, 15 May

  • US industrial production is released on Tuesday, 16 May

  • Japan releases its Q1 gross domestic product figures on Wednesday, 17 May

  • The United Kingdom releases its April retail sales report on Thursday, 18 May

For the week,Global equities were little changed on the week amid presidential elections in France and South Korea and fresh political turbulence in Washington. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, at 2.34%, saw scant net change on the week. West Texas Intermediate crude oil firmed modestly, to $47.50 a barrel from last week’s $45.50.

NIFTY- 9,400.90
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,062 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,015 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.31

MARKET ROUND UP 
Key equity benchmark indices registered strong gains in the week ended Friday, 12 May 2017. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index scaled record highs on the back of domestic and global cues. 
The market sentiment was boosted by chief of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reportedly commenting that India may likely receive higher monsoon rainfall than previously forecast. A good monsoon would positively impact rural incomes which in turn could give a boost to mass consumption sectors like FMCG, two-wheeler industry etc. A substantial part of the country derives income from agriculture and allied sectors. 
The Sensex rose 329.35 points or 1.1% to settle at 30,188.15. The Nifty 50 index advanced 115.60 points or 1.24% to settle at 9,400.90. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.92%, under performing the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.12%, outperforming the Sensex. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,the government will announce industrial production data for the month of March 2017 after market hours on Friday, 12 May 2017. The data on inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) or retail inflation for April 2017 will also be announced after market hours on that day.

The data on inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) for April 2017 is also slated to release after market hours on Friday, 12 May 2017. India's trade data for the month of April 2017 is scheduled on Monday, 15 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
Asian Paints declined 1.21%. The company's consolidated net profit rose 10.4% to Rs 462.22 crore on 8.9% rise in revenue from operations to Rs 4416.23 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 11 May 2017.

TCS advanced 1.86%. The company announced that it has opened its first Drones Research Lab in the US at its Seven Hills Park Innovation center located in Cincinnati, Ohio to address the rapidly expanding demand for unmanned aerial vehicles and business solutions across industries. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 5 May 2017.TCS announced that South Africa's Mercantile Bank successfully transformed its banking operations with TCS BaNCS Digital. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 10 May 2017.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was down 1.32%. The company said that Department of Telecommunications, Ministry of Communications, Government of India has granted unified license dated 2 May 2017 to the company with national long distance and internet service provider-category A service authorizations for providing telecom services. The license is valid for 20 years. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 9 May 2017. 

Lupin rose 0.29%. The company issued clarification to the media news after market hours on Tuesday, 9 May 2017. The company said that recently its Aurangabad facility underwent an inspection by the USFDA. The inspection was completed on 26 April 2017, subsequent to which, the USFDA issued Form 483 citing eight observations. The company is in the midst of putting together a response to address the observations. 

DrReddys Laboratories declined 0.66%. The company's consolidated net profit rose 175.37% to Rs 337.60 crore on 5.32% decline in net sales to Rs 3498.50 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during trading hours on Friday, 12 May 2017. 

Tata Motors was up 2.54%. Tata Motors Group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) declined 4% to 73,691 units in April 2017 over April 2016. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 10 May 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential election with about 66.1% of the votes, against 33.9% for rival Marine Le Pen. The victory on Sunday, 7 May 2017 for the 39-year-old Macrona staunch supporter of the European Union is likely to placate anxious global market investors, who have fretted for weeks that far-right candidate Le Pen would win and make good on promises to yank France out of the EU, potentially unsettling the eurozone and world markets.
The International Monetary Fund said Asia's economic outlook faces significant uncertainty and downside growth risks from any sudden tightening in global financial conditions or rise in protectionist trade policies. The IMF, which in April raised its 2017 Asia-Pacific growth forecast to 5.5% from its previous October forecast of 5.4%, said loose monetary and fiscal policies across most of the region would underpin domestic demand. India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in the FY 2018 and 7.7% in FY 2019 after disruptions caused by demonetization, the IMF said.

Global Economic News:

Legislative calendar grows more challenging for Trump
President Donald Trump’s health care reform and tax cut agenda have faced significant legislative headwinds for some time, but those headwinds stiffened considerably after the president removed from office embattled Federal Bureau of Investigation director James Comey. Measures that require a 60-vote majority in the 100-seat United States Senate will be extremely difficult to enact given the charged political environment. Republicans, with 52 senators, hold a slim majority.

Macron outperforms expectations
Centrist Emmanuel Macron was expected to easily beat right-wing populist Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election, but his margin of victory proved to be even larger than expected. Macron received 66% of the vote to Le Pen’s 34%. He must now forge a governing majority in the National Assembly, with two-round parliamentary elections scheduled for 11 June and 18 June.

South Korea’s president aims for warmer North Korea relations
Newly-elected South Korean president Moon Jae-in took office on Wednesday and vowed to resolve the security crisis on the Korean peninsula as soon as possible, including by traveling to Pyongyang, under the right conditions. On the economic front, Moon is expected to push for the reform of South Korea’s conglomerate system, as well as to seek higher corporate taxes.

Greek bailout may secure IMF backing
Concerns over the sustainability of Greek debt have caused in the International Monetary Fund to bypass the past several rounds of funding for the indebted Euro zone member. But the IMF looks likely to rejoin the bailout in the weeks ahead, and continues to push European authorities to grant Greece debt relief. An agreement is expected at a meeting of Euro group finance ministers on 22 May.

US consumer perks up
US retail sales expanded at the fastest rate in three months in April, while prior months’ data were revised higher. Strong labor markets and modestly rising wages are supporting consumption. Consumer prices in the US remain subdued, rising 0.2% in April after falling 0.3% in March. Core CPI rose 0.1% in April, and was up 1.9% versus a year ago.

Bank of England leaves policy untouched, lowers outlook
The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at their rate-setting meeting on Thursday but the Monetary Policy Committee slightly downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2017 to 1.9% from an earlier 2% outlook. Governor Mark Carney allowed in a press conference that the BOE “has not modeled” for a disorderly Brexit process. Carney also said that if the Brexit process goes smoothly, the Bank may need to hike interest rates faster than the market expects.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

VIX bounces from 24-year lows
Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Index (VIX), fell to its lowest level since 1993 this week amid unusually calm equity trading conditions. The VIX, at 10.6 on Friday morning 12 May, is running at roughly half of its twenty-year average, according to Reuters. Analysts are struggling to explain the unusually placid market environment, with one well-known pundit this week pinning the blame on social media. The VIX slipped as low as 9.7 on Monday 8 May.


As of 11 May, with 457 of the S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings are expected to increase 14.7% in Q1 versus a year ago. Excluding energy, earnings are expected to grow 10.4%. Revenues are expected to grow 7.3%, or 5.3%, excluding energy. The next-twelve-months P/E ratio is 17.8%, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ALBK

92.50

CENTURYTEX

1218.20

DLF

209.40

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


DRREDDY

2525.25

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):


ADANI TRANSMISSION

22.40

CG POWER

17.23

UNITED SPIRITES

14.64

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


DENA BANK

-13.76

GLENMARK

-10.27

YES BANK

-7.76



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (15May)
Housing Market Index
Tuesday (16 May)
Housing Starts 
Wednesday (17May)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday (18May)
Jobless Claims
Friday (19May)
No Major Data


Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Majesco Ltd For Target Rs. 556.00 

STOCK IN FOCUS 
* Majesco’s stock rose by 2.4% yesterday, while the BSE Sensex was flat. While the company reported a disappointing 4QFY17, with revenue down 6.2% QoQ in USD terms, we believe underlying industry fundamentals and the key IBM partnership will enable Majesco to boost revenue growth in FY18E.

* Under-penetrated and significant market opportunity, highly rated products - Total addressable market for Majesco stands at ~US$ 25bn. Within this, the addressable market size for the US P&C market stands at US$ 9.25bn.
Majesco has also developed products for the L&A market; of the total estimated addressable market of US$25bn for Majesco, around US$15-16bn relates to the L&A market. We currently have a target price of Rs 556 on the stock.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,300

9,338

9,365

9,400.90

9,434

9,468

9,520

NIFTY began the session on lifetime- high tracking positive cues from Asian markets, but later index remained sideways during the day. Finally, after oscillating in 9,451-9,411 range, NIFTY closed the day at 9,422 mark with gain of 15 points.NSE Cash segment reported turnover of Rs25,387crore as compared to Rs24,298 crore earlier.Overall market breadth remained negative, where 672 stocks advanced against 986 declined stocks.Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where Media index emerged as a top gainer with the increase of 3.4% respectively. However, none of the sectoral indices reported loss of more than 0.5%

Bank Nifty made high of 22977 doing our target of 22940 and now holding 20700 we can move towards 23110.Bearish only below 22500. Hope traders are Enjoying this wonderful ride we are having in market. Dance till the music lasts. Bank Nifty finally closed below 22700 suggesting bulls are near the gann angle support holding the same we can again see an upmove towards 23000/23110.Bearish below 22500 for a move towards 22350/22100

Conclusion: 
Indian equity market following a breather in the last week regained its upward journey. With the statement from IMD that projected a normal monsoon provided the required impetus to push Nifty to pierce 9450 mark for the first time ever. Post a big rally, the market invariably faces a hurdle in the form of resistance at higher levels. This is a normal phenomenon in a bull market, which was very much in play during this week’s trade. In addition, Friday sell-off led by Banking stocks saw markets giving away some of the gains. Yes Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank stocks declined sharply on wide divergence between reported NPA and RBI assessed NPA. Pharma stocks remained under pressure as earnings continue to disappoint with latest Glenmark results reporting a wide miss on estimates.


Interestingly, BankNifty under performed against the benchmark index, and was the main reason for slowdown in index action post the breakout session on Wednesday. Furthermore, records kept tumbling on indices even as the global market rally and an historical low VIX contributed towards the gains.

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK MAY 08, 2017–MAY 14, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Payroll rebound boosts June Fed rate hike chances
  • Macron poised to win French presidential election
  • Brexit battle lines harden
  • European growth picks up

The Week ahead:

  • The French presidential election takes place on Sunday, 7 May
  • China reports foreign exchange reserves on Sunday, 7 May
  • China reports its trade balance on Monday, 8 May
  • ECB president Mario Draghi addresses the Dutch parliament on Wednesday, 10 May
  • The Bank of England meets to set interest rates on Thursday, 11 May
  • The US reports retail sales and its Consumer Price Index on Friday, 12 May

For the week,Global equities extended their gains this week against a backdrop of improved economic growth, particularly in Europe. Slumping commodity prices may prove worrisome down the road, however, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude falling to nearly a six-month low, ending the week near $45.50, down from $49.00 last Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose modestly, to 2.35%, up 4 basis points on the week. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), held steady near 10.

NIFTY- 9,285.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2,970barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,070 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.38

MARKET ROUND UP

Key indices settled with small losses as profit booking emerged after indices hit record highs in the recent past. The Sensex settled below the psychological 30,000 mark after regaining that mark during the week. The Nifty had hit record closing high on 4 May 2017.

Key indices had posted decent gains on 4 May 2017 that saw Nifty scaling record closing high on that day after witnessing listless trade in first two sessions of the week. However, drop on the final session of the week tracking weak global stocks caused indices to wrap the week with minor losses.

The market fell in two out of four sessions in truncated trading week. The market remained closed on Monday, 1 May 2017, on account of Maharashtra Day.

The Sensex declined 59.60 points or 0.19% to settle at 29,858.80. The Nifty 50 index skidded 18.75 points or 0.2% to settle at 9,285.30.

The BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 0.54%. The decline in the index was higher than the Sensex's drop in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.1%. The decline in the index was lower than the Sensex's fall in percentage terms.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,data released by Markit Economics during market hours on 4 May 2017 showed that the rate of increase in Indian service sector activity weakened in April 2017. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services PMI Business Activity Index was down at 50.2 in April, from 51.5 in March.

Market Economics in a press release issued during market hours on 2 May 2017, said that manufacturing conditions in India improved for the fourth straight month in April. However, the headline Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) remained unchanged at 52.5 in April as in March.

Meanwhile, the combined index of eight core industries comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 202.9 in March 2017, which was 5% higher compared to the index of March 2016. The data was released by the government on 1 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:

Tata Steel was down 3.53%. The company announced that Tata Steel UK has completed the sale of its speciality steels business to Liberty House Group for a total consideration of 100 million pounds. The announcement was made during market hours on 2 May 2017.

Housing finance major HDFC rose 0.61%. The company's net profit fell 21.58% to Rs 2044.20 crore on 7.7% decline in total income to Rs 8514.51 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during market hours on 4 May 2017.

ONGC dropped 1.56%. ONGC Videsh, a 100% subsidiary of ONGC announced that it has encountered exciting result in its well Mariposa-1 which is under drilling in CPO-5 block of Colombia. ONGC Videsh is the operator of the block and holds 70% participating interest and Amerisur Resources holds the remaining 30%. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

TCS gained 2.11%. The company said it has been selected by one of Europe's largest utilities companies Vattenfall-to provide IT services across multiple European operations including Swedan, Germany and the Netherlands. The announcement was made after market hours on 2 May 2017. The managed services agreement is a multi-year partnership in which TCS will be responsible for the development and maintenance of a large number of applications.

Wipro rose 0.88%. The company announced that it has joined Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) as a founding member. EEA is a collaboration of enterprises to promote, develop and implement enterprise grade Ethereum based blockchain applications across industries for specific business use cases. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

ICICI Bank surged 7.2%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. The bank's net profit jumped 188.5% to Rs 2024.64 crore on 10.8% decline in total income to Rs 16585.76 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on 3 May 2017.

Hero MotoCorp gained 1.38%. The company's total two-wheeler sales declined 3.5% to 5.91 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. The two-wheeler industry witnessed heavy retail off-take towards the end of March 2017 in view of the transition from BS III to BS IV vehicles. The announcement was made on 1 May 2017.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 1.88%. The company's total sales rose 19.5% to 1.51 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Domestic sales grew by 23.4% to 1.44 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Exports declined 29.4% to 6,723 units in April 2017 over April 2016. The announcement was made on Monday, 1 May 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,the US Federal Reserve on 3 May 2017, left monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and indicated it remains on track to deliver two more rate increases by year-end. The Fed said that it would not change its interest rate target this month. However, the Fed also stated that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, fuelling hopes among investors for future rate rises.

China's service sector expanded at the slowest pace in nearly a year, a private gauge showed on 4 May 2017, pointing to possible softness in the sector. The Caixin China services purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.5 in April--the lowest since May 2016--from 52.2 in March, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said.

China's nationwide factory activity expanded at a slower pace in April, with a private gauge falling to a seven-month low. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 50.3 in April from 51.2 in March, indicating a slower expansion of activity, Caixin Media Co. and research firm market said on 2 May 2017.

Global Economic News:

Nonfarm payrolls rebound
Friday’s US employment report was fairly upbeat, with 211,000 added to payrolls in April versus a downward revised 79,000 in March. The unemployment rate fell to a 4.4%, a 10-year low, though average hourly earnings were restrained, rising a less-than-expected 2.5%. The report paves the way for likely rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve at its June meeting. The Fed earlier this week held rates steady but said weakness in the US economy in the first quarter was likely transitory.

Macron holds formidable lead ahead of Sunday’s vote
Thirty-nine-year-old centrist Emmanuel Macron, seeking elective office for the first time, looks poised to win the French presidency on Sunday. He leads right-wing populist Marine Le Pen by an average of 20 points in opinion polls. The same polls proved quite accurate in the election’s first round, and showed that Macron bested Le Pen in Wednesday’s head-to-head debate. If Macron wins, as expected, two-round parliamentary elections in June will be critical for his fledgling En Marche! party, which will have to cobble together a working majority to allow Macron to govern effectively.

UK–EU divide widens ahead of negotiations
Explosive media reports this week documenting a meeting on 26 April between Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker show just how far apart the two sides are before Brexit negotiations begin in earnest. While the United Kingdom hopes to negotiate the terms of its divorce from the European Union and its future trade relations in parallel, the EU has made clear that exit terms must be well on their way to being ironed out before it will entertain trade talks. Also in dispute is how large a bill the UK will have to foot to exit the EU. Numbers as high as €100 billion were floated in the media this week. Prime Minster May will lead her party into elections on 8 June, so the public spat with the EU this week comes at a fortuitous time for her, as it plays well to the anti-EU faction of the UK electorate.

European economy kicks into gear
Economic growth in the Eurozone grew at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2017, outstripping US growth, which was an anemic 0.7% annualized rate over the same period. Purchasing managers' indices reported this week suggest that European growth might be accelerating further.

Health care reform bill emerges from US House
After months of Republican infighting, a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare emerged from the US House of Representatives this week. The bill will likely face a stiff challenge in the Senate, where lawmakers will attempt to fashion a bill under the so-called reconciliation rule that won’t require 60 votes for consideration. A Senate vote on the measure is expected to be some months away.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Largest-ever US municipal bankruptcy for Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico filed for a form of bankruptcy this week. The territory is weighed down by approximately $75 billion in debt, making the filing the largest in US history. Detroit’s $9 billion filing held the previous record. A decade-long recession, a shrinking population and a dramatically underfunded pension system forced the territory to seek protection from creditors.

As of 3 May, 357 of the 500 constituents of the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the first quarter. Earnings are expected to increase 14.2% from a year ago. Stripping out energy, earnings growth is 10%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to increase 7.2%. Ex energy, they are seen up 5.3%. The next-twelve-months earnings estimate for the S&P 500 is 17.7x.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

 

ALBK

90.30

ANDHRABANK

76.10

ARVIND

426.15

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

LUPIN

1248.30

RELIGARE

183.00

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):

GODREJ PROP

14.00

SREI INFRA

13.92

COROMANDEL INTE.

13.21

CANBK

11.22

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

TATA COMMUNICATION

-11.24

IPCA LABS

-9.62

RELIANCE COMMU

-9.57


Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (08May)

Labor Market Conditions

Tuesday (09 may)

NFIB Small Bussiness

Wednesday (10May)

MBA Mortgage Applications

Thursday (11 May)

Jobless Claims& Fed Balance Sheet

Friday (12May)

Consumer Price Index

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Hindustan Unilever Ltd For Target Rs.1,020.00

Derivative Ideas

* Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL. HUL's products include foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products and water purifiers.

* On the charts, it has marginally retraced from its 52-week high i.e. 954 and has formed a fresh buying pivot after consolidating in a narrow range.The chart looks upbeat from hereon and we believe that the prevailing momentum will continue ahead as well and expect of making a new record high soon.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,150

9,230

9,270

9,285.30

9,365

9,410

9,450


As expected Nifty consolidated and traded in a narrow range of 107 points throughout the week but hits new all time high by 10 points on the back of strong up-move in Banking stocks like ICICI Bank and PSU banks as the new ordinance to resolve the bad loans kept the sector in momentum. The result season was mixed with strong performance from ICICI Bank, HDFC, and Marico while muted results from Biocon, Bharat Finance, Dabur and JSW Energy.  Core sector output rose by 5% in March, recovering from the one-year low growth rate of 1% in February keeping the industrial segment in focus. Global markets also remained flat as FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged, hinting at hikes in the next meeting in June. Commodities continued to remain under pressure with dollar index trading at sub 100 levels.

 Nifty has ended flat down by 0.3% after hitting a new all time high at 9377 reversing the entire week gains on Friday to close at 9,285 levels.  There was sharp profit booking in high beta sectors and stocks during the week. Metals, Energy and Auto declined by 4.1%, 2.8% and 1.5% respectively, while IT and Bank Nifty gained by 1.4% and 1%, respectively for the week. CNX Midcaps and Small cap ended flat to negative after hitting an all time high. 

Conclusion:

We continue to believe markets would consolidate and also expect some correction to fill the gap level which was left near 9,225 levels. It could head for large correction if 9,000 gets broken on the downside as it is a very important level placed since the start of the up move from January 2017.  The option data also continues to suggest a strong support at 9000 with an OI of 50 lakhs shares in put options. On the upside 9400 has the highest OI of 55 lakhs shares in call options.  

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Nowadays you would find that people wish to get themselves involved in extra or part time activities that help them to earn some extra bucks apart from their business or office work. There are some sections of people who try to get involved in the shares and stocks. If you are too willing to invest in the stock market then you should know that you have to understand the different concepts that are associated with the market. There might be times when you would find that you have lost all your money even after getting the right type of research of the market. This is because stock market is full of risks and if you are someone who cannot handle risks in the market then you should not invest in the stock market. There might be times when you would get huge profits from the investment made in the stocks. So here you would be glad to have chosen the right stocks for you in the market. You have to make sure that unless you have all the knowledge of the market, you should not try to invest all your money in the market. So efforts should be taken in order to know how to go for winning your cash in the stock market

 

Can stock market be predicted?

Well you would find some people who try to make some prediction on the stock market. But you should know that one can never predict the stock market. There are some experts who try to make some guesses on the different stocks with the help of fundamental and technical analysis. But here too their prediction is not 100% correct. So you have to make sure that you do not try to make any prediction of the market. There are also some investors who try to have a look at the past performances of the different stocks. But you should know that the performances of the stocks always changes and so you cannot know whether the stock that have shown good performances in the past would continue to do the same today. Therefore the best thing that you can do in order to keep updates of all the latest information of the market is to watch the daily business news or read the daily newspaper. In this way you can keep good track of the market. Well you can also have a look at the stock charts or tables where you would come to know about the positions of the different stocks in the market.         You can also get good knowledge of the stocks by visiting different websites that gives updates on the market and its conditions.

 

Try to understand your investment goal

You should also try to know which type of stocks would be beneficial for you. There are both profitable and non profitable stocks that you can find in the market and so you need to know how to differentiate between these two types of stocks in the market. You have to decide whether to go for long term or short term investment in the market. If you feel that it would be more profitable for you to go for short term investment then you can go for day trading. But before you wish to go for this type of trading you should know the amount of risks that are involved. So you have to keep both your eyes open and look for the best profitable income by investing in the best stocks from the market.

 

Gain good confidence

Gaining good confidence from the market is very important in order to get the right type of stocks in the market. Even if you wish to go for online share trading then you should make sure that you have all the knowledge on how to buy or sell stocks and also how to select the best stocks for you from the market. If you happen to commit a small mistake then you would have to lose all your money. Thus you should always try to know how to go for winning your cash in the stock market

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Do you know that even a wrong attempt in choosing the non profitable stocks from the market might make you lose all your invested money in the market? Well, it is quite important to get the right type of stocks from the market by making the best research of the different stocks present in it. It is also important to make or decide all your investment in the stocks without any help from your friends as they might provide you information that is not right or outdated. So in this case you have to be very positive when you look forward to get the best type of stocks from the market. When you feel that the conditions of the stock market are not good then you should try to wait for a certain period of time and then invest in the share market accordingly. You should also be able to look at the past performances of the stocks so that you can have a good idea on the best stocks that you would be able to make the best income. If you are not ready to incur any loss or take any sort of risks then you should not try to invest in the market. This is because you need to know that the stock market is always full of risks and so there might be times when you find that you have got good amount of money and again in the course of time you would find that there was very heavy loss in your investment. Due to this unpredictability nature most of the people do not dare to invest in the stock market. Thus in order to make yourself more knowledgeable you need to get the proper information of the stocks and then try to invest in the stocks according to your requirement in the market.  Having the proper updates of the market can help you remain confident in the stocks and you would be able to get the best benefits out of it. You can also get to find stock charts that help you to look at the current positions of the different stocks. So in this case you should try to gather good knowledge on how to find the right stocks by researching the stock charts?

 

Try to research the stocks online

If you are not knowledgeable about the market then it would be quite difficult for you to get the best stocks from the market. You can also try to make a good insight into the market by knowing the past performances or history of the different stocks in the market. If you try to make any prediction then you would not be able to get hold of the stocks from the market. So in this case you have to know that unless you are quite clear of the stock market you would not be able to get the right type of profit. So in order to play safe in the stock market you need to find out whether you are willing to invest for your long term or short term. So you need to act accordingly in the market and make the right type of profits from the shares and stocks. Never try to make any mistakes in the market as it would ruin you financially and make you lose the entire amount of money that you have invested in the different stocks.

 

Put your best efforts in the market

You need to put the right type of efforts in the market in case you are serious about your stock investment in it. If you fail to choose the best investment for you then there would be a huge loss and so you need to know how to avoid making any mistakes in the market. You also need to identify the right type of stocks and also try to watch the daily business news. When you look at the stock charts you would be able to decide the best stocks for you. Thus you have come to know how to find the right stocks by researching the stock charts?

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 16, 2017–April 23, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • Trump may nominate Yellen to second term

  • Geopolitical tensions rise

  • Four candidates in French presidential mix

  • Fed chair: Economy healthy now

  • Canadian central bank head warns on house prices

The Week ahead:

  • China reports GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Monday, 17 April

  • The United States releases industrial production data on Tuesday, 18 April

  • The eurozone releases its consumer price index on Wednesday, 19 April

  • The Fed’s Beige Book is published on Wednesday, 19 April

  • The United Kingdom reports retail sales data on Friday, 21 April

  • US existing home sales data are released on Friday, 21 April

For the week,Global equities dipped this week with the intensification of geopolitical jitters over rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the possibility of a stronger US commitment to oust Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. A safe-haven bid pushed the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note down to its lowest point of the year at 2.25%. Oil prices continued their rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $53.25 from $52 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, jumped to 16 from 12.8 last week.


NIFTY- 9,150.80
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,423 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,418 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.41

MARKET ROUND UP 
Indian equity markets registered modest losses in the week ended Thursday, 13 April 2017, weighed by weak global cues. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex lost 245.16 points or 0.82% to settle at 29,461.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 47.50 points or 0.51% to settle at 9,150.80. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.82%. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.36%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 
Domestic bourses remain shut on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Dr. Baba SahebAmbedkarJayanti and Good Friday. 
Sentiment in global markets remained subdued during the week as investors were cautious amid geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. In recent days, the trading mood has been dented by heightened geopolitical tensions. 

Key benchmark indices suffered modest losses on Wednesday, 12 April 2017, amid volatile session of trade ahead of the release of key domestic economic data later in the day. The Sensex fell 144.87 points or 0.49% to settle at 29,643.48, its lowest closing level since 10 April 2017.

Key benchmark indices wrapped the trading week with moderate losses on Thursday, 13 April 2017, as sentiment was subdued after domestic data showed that industrial production contracted in February and consumer price inflation edged up in March. The Sensex declined 182.03 points or 0.61% to settle at 29,461.45, its lowest closing level since 28 March 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,industrial production declined 1.2% in February 2017 over February 2016, snapping 3.3% growth recorded in January 2017. The manufacturing sector's production dipped 2% in February 2017, mainly contributing to the dip in industrial production. 

The inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.81% in March 2017 (new base 2012=100), compared with 3.65% in February 2017. The CPI and IIP data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017. 

Major Action &Announcement:
BhartiAirtel was down 1.15%. The company said its DTH arm Airtel Digital TV launched Internet TV India's first hybrid STB, powered by Android TV, which brings the best of online content to the TV screen along with a bouquet of over 500 plus satellite TV channels. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Tata Motors declined 3.22%. The company said group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose 9% at 1.29 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 6% at 42,596 units in March 2017 over March 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India lost 2.79%. The company said its total production rose 10.29% to 1.53 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017. 

L&T fell 0.5%. The company said the power transmission and distribution business of L&T Construction has won its single largest order in the Middle East from their esteemed customer Kahramaa' - Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation - for its ongoing Qatar Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase XIII. 

NTPC declined 1.85%. The company said that Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture company between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has achieved financial closure on 10 April 2017 to set up 1320 megawatts (MW) (2 x 660 MW) coal based Maitree Super Thermal Power Project at Rampal in Bagerhat District of Khulna division, Bangladesh. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Infosys slumped 5.08%. The company said that consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fell 2.8% to Rs 3603 crore on 0.9% decline in revenue to Rs 17120 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q3 December 2016. The result was announced before market hours on Thursday, 13 April 2017.

Wipro lost 3.27%. The company said it has completed the acquisition of Brazilian IT service provider InfoSERVER. The impact of the buyout will reflect in the financials of the company from the Q1 June 2017, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.93%. RIL's subsidiary, Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced that the Jio Summer Surprise has been fully withdrawn, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China's consumer inflation rebounded slightly in March after slipping to a more than two-year low in the previous month, official data showed. China's consumer price index increased 0.9% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 0.8% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Japan's current account surplus stood at 2.81 trillion yen ($25.26 billion) in February, finance ministry data showed, the biggest surplus since March 2016. The result is the 32nd straight month of current account surpluses. This February's current account surplus was the largest on record for February.

Meanwhile, industrial production in the eurozone dropped unexpectedly in February from the month before, led by falling energy output, the European Union's statistics agency said. Output of the eurozone's factory, mines and utilities decreased by 0.3% from the month before, but rose by 1.2% from February last year, Eurostat said.

Global Economic News:

Trump shifts tone
US president Donald Trump sounded decidedly more moderate than he did during last fall’s campaign in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The president reversed course on multiple fronts. First, Trump said he may nominate US Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen to a second term after saying last fall that she was "toast" and he would replace her at the end of her term. He also reversed his opposition to the US Export-Import Bank, which finances US exports. Critics cite the bank as an example of “corporate welfare.” Additionally, the president shifted gears on NATO, saying the alliance is no longer obsolete because it has begun to fight terrorism. Finally, Trump said the United States will not label China a currency manipulator, thus breaking another campaign vow. The reversal may represent an attempt to entice China to increase pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

North Korea, Syria in spotlight
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean peninsula as the North Korean regime threatened a nuclear strike in response to any US aggression. North Korea is believed to be trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. This week, the US navy dispatched a carrier task force to the western Pacific in a show of force, while Chinese president Xi Jinping said that China is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. President Trump called on China to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor, saying if China won’t help, the US could act alone. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 nations continue to pressure Russia to abandon its support of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in the wake of last week’s chemical weapons attack on Syrian rebels which led to a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase by US forces.

Poloz: House prices can go down as well as up
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned of the growing role of speculation in the recent acceleration in Toronto-area house prices. The central banker said that prices had accelerated from percentages in the high teens to the 30% zone, adding there is no fundamental story that can explain the rise. “I think it is timely to remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up,” he said. Poloz also said that further rate cuts in Canada are no longer on the table.

EM debt issuance boomed in Q1
Borrowers in emerging markets raised a record $181 billion during the first quarter of the year. Corporates raised $119.1 billion, beating the Q1 2013 record, while sovereigns raised $61.5 billion, topping the year-ago quarter by over $16 billion, according to data from J.P. Morgan. Total emerging market debt rose to $55 trillion in 2016, equal to 215% of the collective GDP of emerging nations.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Four contenders vie for two spots in French runoff
For months, there have been three candidates in contention for the two spots in the second round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, the populist firebrand, has consistently led recent polls, trailed closely by centrist Emmanuel Macron. François Fillon, hampered by an ethics scandal, has held the third position most of the time. Now a fourth candidate, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has entered the fray and is in a virtual tie for third place with Fillon. The conventional wisdom is that Le Pen will be beaten handily in the second round by either Macron or Fillon, who are more centrist. But the emergence of Mélenchon could put an unexpected wrinkle into the process. First-round voting takes place on 23 April.

Yellen: Fed allowing economy to coast
Speaking at the University of Michigan, Fed chair Yellen said that the US economy is healthy and that the Fed is now shifting its focus, taking its foot off the accelerator and allowing the economy to “coast” for a while, saying a gradual path of interest rate increases can get us where we need to go. Yellen also opined on several bills that are working their way through Congress, expressing concern that the Fed could become subject to political pressure if the bills are signed into law.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ABB

1467.65

ATUL

2532.00

BAJAJFINSV

4634.85

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


 INDIABULLS REAL

19.13

PIRAMAL ENT.

16.68

RURAL ELECTRIFIC

12.57

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


ADANI POWER

-24.66

SOBHA

-9.71

VEDANTA

-9.16



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (17 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (18 Mar)
Housing Market Index
Wednesday (19 Mar)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications 
Friday (21 Mar)
Jobless Claims


Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd For Target Rs.2950.00 -

Derivative Ideas
The stock is consolidating after forming a bottom at 2755 levels with positive price action in the past few days confirming an uptrend. The key technical indicators has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock has closed above its short term averages
* The stock has strong support on its weekly charts holding the short and medium term averages and the positive divergence in the last few weeks candle confirms the up move.
*Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs. 2810 for target of Rs 2950 with a stop loss of Rs 2740.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened on a flat note today and traded with a downward bias. It has reached near the lower end of the 9180-9150 support range. On the hourly chart, the fall is appearing as a corrective one. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty seems to have formed a wedge on the hourly chart, whose implications are likely to be bullish. Thus, the next leg up could be around the corner. We are maintaining our positive view on the Nifty with a cautious approach. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, ie 9120 will be the subsequent support, with 9000-8980 being a major support area. On the way up, 9340 and 9500 are the short-term and medium-term targets, respectively.  

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,000

9,060

9,110

9,150.80

9,180

9,250

9,310

Nifty, after trading range bound for most part of the week, ended lower and lost nearly half a percent and finally settled at 9150.80.
* Existence of major hurdle around 9300 mark combined with weak global cues and anxiety ahead of earnings season capped upside; however, buying interest was witnessed in select index major amid volatility.
* In the coming week, we expect volatility to remain high due to ongoing earnings season and lingering geo-political issue.
* Considering all, we suggest participants maintaining stock specific approach and keep a check on the leveraged positions.

Conclusion:

Bank Nifty made low of  21551 so bulls held on to 21500 in today’s correction so we can continue the upmove towards 21850/21990 as we have weekly closing tomorrow, Friday being an holiday. Bearish below 21500 for a move towards 21400/21350. Bank Nifty continue to hold on to its gann angle suggesting bulls are holding the grip. Holding the low of 21600 BUlls can continue to see upmove towards 21800/21920/22000. Bearish on close below 21520 for a move towards 21400/21350/21230. New time cycle is starting from coming week (More Details in Weekly Analysis) so we can see good trending move in next 1-2 days.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 10, 2017–April 16, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • US March nonfarm payrolls rise 98,000

  • US launches missile attack against Syria

  • Trump, Xi hold summit

  • Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet

  • European manufacturing speeds up

  • South Africa suffers credit downgrade

The Week ahead:

  • Fed chair Janet Yellen participates in a discussion at the University of Michigan on Monday, 10 April
  • The UK consumer price index is released on Tuesday, 11 April
  • UK unemployment data are reported on Wednesday, 12 April
  • The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, 12 April
  • China reports its trade balance on Thursday, 13 April
  • The United States releases retail sales and consumer price data on Friday, April 14

For the week,Global equities were little changed this week despite an uptick in geopolitical jitters following the US missile strike on a Syrian airbase and a potential shift in tactics by the US Federal Reserve later this year. The lackluster employment report, coupled with the attack against Syria, helped push US 10-year Treasury notes to 2.28%, their lowest intraday yield of 2017, on Friday morning. Oil prices firmed after the attack, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $51.94, up from $50 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained subdued, at 12.8 on Friday versus 12 a week ago.


NIFTY- 9,198.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,362barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,665 gram
Rs/$-Rs 68.08

MARKET ROUND UP 
The market rose last week in line with overall positive sentiment in the market which has been riding on the passage of Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the strengthened position of government after the assembly elections. The improved macroeconomic numbers, such as sharp reduction in current account deficit, resulted in a lot of funds flowing into Indian equities - both from domestic and global institutions. The buying interest was not only in large-caps, but in mid and small-caps as well. 
In the week ended Friday, 7 April 2017, the Sensex rose 86.11 points, or 0.29% to settle at 29,706.61. The Nifty 50 index rose 24.55 points, or 0.27% to settle at 9,198.30. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 136.51 points, or 0.97% to settle at 14,233.16. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 350.17 points, or 2.44% to settle at 14,681.42.

Trading for the week began on a positive note. Market registered modest gains in the first trading session of the week on Monday, 3 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 289.72 points or 0.98% to settle at 29,910.22. Domestic bourses were closed on Tuesday, 4 April 2017 on account of Ram Navami.

Market registered decent gains in a volatile trade on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 64.02 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,974.24, its record closing high. 

Key benchmark indices registered small losses on weak global cues on Thursday, 6 April 2017. The Sensex fell 46.90 points or 0.16% to settle at 29,927.34, its lowest closing level since 3 April 2017.

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, 6 April 2017, kept the policy repo under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting on Thursday, 6 April 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy repo rate under the LAF unchanged at 6.25%.

Consequent upon the narrowing of the LAF corridor as elaborated in the accompanying Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies, the reverse repo rate under the LAF is at 6% per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.5%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of plus/minus 2%, while supporting growth, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, data released by Markit Economics during market hours on Thursday, 6 April 2017 showed that the Indian service sector moved further away from the demonetisation-related contractions seen towards the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India composite PMI output index increased to 52.3 in March, from 50.7 in February, signalling a quicker rise in private sector activity across the country.

Major Action &Announcement:
L&T said that the first 150 megawatts (MW) gas turbine for Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)'s 225 MW combined cycle (dual fuel) power plant at Sikalbaha in Chittagong district was synchronised with the national grid on 25 March 2017. The second 280 MW gas turbine for North West Power Generation Co (NWPGCL) combined cycle power plant of 360 MW capacity development project at Bheramara in Kushtia district was synchronised with the grid on 31 March 2017. Both these power plants are being executed by gas based power projects business unit of L&T Power based in Baroda, India. L&T Power is also executing an engineering, procurement and construction subcontract for another 400 MW gas based power plant at Bibiyana in Sylhet district, Bangladesh. It will be ready for commissioning in 2018-19.

Index pivotal Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 6.55% to Rs 1,405.55. RIL said that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has advised its telecom unit Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) to withdraw the 3 months complementary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise. Jio accepted this decision. It is in the process of fully complying with the regulator's advice, and will be withdrawing the 3 months complimentary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise as soon as operationally feasible, over the next few days. 

Car major Maruti Suzuki India rose 3.98% to Rs 6,263.95 after the company announced 8.1% rise in total sales to 1.39 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Total domestic sales rose 7.7% to 1.27 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Exports grew by 12.6% to 11,764 units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made on Saturday, 1 April 2017.

Sate-run NTPC rose 1.05% to Rs 167.70. The company announced that Unit#1 of 660 megawatts (MW) of Solapur Super Thermal Power Project has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of NTPC and NTPC Group has become 44,194 MW and 51,410 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,Overseas, geopolitical tensions intensified after the US military struck a Syrian airfield near Homs. US President Donald Trump said he ordered the missile strikes following the deadly chemical attack that took place earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve policy minutes, which were released on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The minutes had a slightly hawkish tone, as policymakers noted upside risk to the US economy. However, policymakers remain divided on whether inflation will rise to the Fed target of 2.0%. The minutes also stated FOMC members were in favor of taking steps to trim the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which has ballooned since the Fed implemented its aggressive quantitative easing program back in 2008. 

Global Economic News:

US nonfarm payrolls up less than expected
US payrolls expanded by 98,000 in March, well below the 180,000 consensus forecast. In addition, both January and February payrolls were downwardly revised. However, the unemployment rate dipped 0.2% to 4.5%, the lowest level since May 2007, while average hourly earnings rose 2.7% versus a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.

US attacks Syrian airbase 
In response to a chemical weapons attack in Syria by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the United States launched nearly five dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted at the airfield from which the attack is believed to have been launched. The missiles struck infrastructure at the airfield, according to the administration, but did not target chemical weapons storage facilities because of the potential for civilian casualties.

Trade, North Korea top Trump–Xi agenda
US president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s president, held talks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, late this week. The leaders discussed trade relations between the world’s two largest economies as well as security concerns, particularly over North Korea.

European manufacturing hits highest reading in nearly six years
Theeurozone purchasing managers’ index in March rose to its highest level in nearly six years, reaching 56.2 from 55.4. That’s the highest since April of 2011. European retail sales rose solidly for the second month in a row in February, rising 0.7%. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased to 57.2 in March from February’s 57.7.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Fed eyes balance sheet, stock valuations
The minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings rarely make much news, but the summary of the March meeting did so on several fronts. The committee discussed shrinking the Fed’s mammoth $4.5 trillion balance sheet beginning late this year by allowing some of the assets it acquired in the wake of the financial crisis to mature. However, the committee did not outline specifically how it will change its reinvestment policy. Those specifics are expected later in 2017. Also newsworthy was that members of the committee opined on asset valuations more directly than usual: “Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months.”

South Africa’s rating cut after Gordhan ousted
Credit rating agencies Standard and Poor’s and Fitch each downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating one notch to BB+ in the wake of the sacking of former finance minister PravinGordhan. Weakening standards of governance and public finances were to blame.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANIENT

119.35

ADANIPORTS

83.25

BAJAJFINSV

4288.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


 ADANI TRANSMISSION

26.42

SOBHA

21.43

NAVKAR

19.27

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


CONTAINER

-11.87

GSFC

-8.41

COX & KINGS

-8.08



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (10 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (11 Mar)
NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (12 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday (13 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment &Natural Gas Report 
Friday (14 Mar)
Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ambuja Cements Ltd For Target Rs.254.00 

Derivative Ideas
AMBUJACEM added around 7.2% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. On charts, it has witness upside breakout from Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. We suggest buying AMBUJACEM as per levels given below.

Strategy:
BUY AMBUJACEM APR FUTS BETWEEN 240-242, SL 237, TARGET 254.

Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty inched marginally higher in the holiday shortened week and settled closer to 9200, tracking mixed cues from domestic and global front.

* The coming week is also a holiday shortened one and we expect some decisive moves in stocks ahead of Q4FY17 corporate earnings. Besides, recent geo-political issue between the US and Syria will also remain on participants’ radar.
* Technically, we expect Nifty to consolidate further but the overall bias would remain on positive side. We suggest traders to use further profit taking to add quality stocks while keeping the leveraged positions hedged.

TECHNICAL VIEW:


S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

9,000

9,080

9,130

9,198.30

9,225

9,270

9,340

High made was 9268 again near the gann angles, and low made was 9218 so we made an INSIDE Bar candle today, Now plan remains the same buy above 9268 for a move towards 9312/9360/9410. Bearish below 9200 for a move towards 9130/9030. Nifty continue to trade below the gann angle as high made today was also 9250 so we are unable to close above the gann level of 9268, and we closed below 9200 so we are heading towards 9130/9070/9020 range. Bullish only on close above 9268. 

Conclusion:

The Nifty witnessed a minor setback, closing the week on a flat note. Since the last couple of sessions, the Index was taking support near the previous swing high of 9218. However, today, it has broken below 9218 and has fallen back below 9200. Structurally, the fall seems to be a retracement of the previous rise and is unlikely to develop into a larger fall. 9180-9150 is a crucial support zone from where the Nifty can start the next leg up. The overall trend continues to be positive from a short-term as well as medium-term perspective. 9340 and 9500 are short-term and medium-term targets, respectively. On the flip side, 9000-8980 is the major support area.

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Getting good advice

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Making the maximum benefits

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You need to understand the market situation very well when you try to make stock investment in the market. If you try to make any investment in the market without any clear knowledge of the market then you would not be able to make any profit from the market. There are stocks that have shown good profit in the market and you can then try to invest in it but you should always keep in mind that there are always some risks in the market and you cannot avoid the risks. If you try to make your investment in the market and that too without any proper study then you would have to face a huge loss of money.  Making the right and profitable investment in the market is not difficult if you really try your best to make good study or research. There are concepts that make you feel that it is not important but you should know that all concepts are very important in the market. 


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Do not dare to predict

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Make the perfect planning for your investment

You have to make the perfect plan for your stock investment in the market and this can be done by avoiding the decision made by your friends. In other words you need to make sure that you do not take any advice from your friends as they might provide you all the wrong information and you would have to lose your cash in the market. Investing for short term can also help you gain good amount of money but you need to know the risks in it. You would be glad of your own decision when you get the best profit from your stock investment. You should make sure of the stocks that it would bring good profits to you. Thus you should try to understand how to be responsible while investing in the market?

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