Events to watch this week
US March nonfarm payrolls rise 98,000
US launches missile attack against Syria
Trump, Xi hold summit
Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet
European manufacturing speeds up
South Africa suffers credit downgrade
The Week ahead:
- Fed chair Janet Yellen participates in a discussion at the University of Michigan on Monday, 10 April
- The UK consumer price index is released on Tuesday, 11 April
- UK unemployment data are reported on Wednesday, 12 April
- The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, 12 April
- China reports its trade balance on Thursday, 13 April
- The United States releases retail sales and consumer price data on Friday, April 14
For the week,Global equities were little changed this week despite an uptick in geopolitical jitters following the US missile strike on a Syrian airbase and a potential shift in tactics by the US Federal Reserve later this year. The lackluster employment report, coupled with the attack against Syria, helped push US 10-year Treasury notes to 2.28%, their lowest intraday yield of 2017, on Friday morning. Oil prices firmed after the attack, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $51.94, up from $50 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained subdued, at 12.8 on Friday versus 12 a week ago.
NIFTY- 9,198.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,362barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,665 gram
Rs/$-Rs 68.08
MARKET ROUND UP
The market rose last week in line with overall positive sentiment in the market which has been riding on the passage of Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the strengthened position of government after the assembly elections. The improved macroeconomic numbers, such as sharp reduction in current account deficit, resulted in a lot of funds flowing into Indian equities - both from domestic and global institutions. The buying interest was not only in large-caps, but in mid and small-caps as well.
In the week ended Friday, 7 April 2017, the Sensex rose 86.11 points, or 0.29% to settle at 29,706.61. The Nifty 50 index rose 24.55 points, or 0.27% to settle at 9,198.30. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 136.51 points, or 0.97% to settle at 14,233.16. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 350.17 points, or 2.44% to settle at 14,681.42.
Trading for the week began on a positive note. Market registered modest gains in the first trading session of the week on Monday, 3 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 289.72 points or 0.98% to settle at 29,910.22. Domestic bourses were closed on Tuesday, 4 April 2017 on account of Ram Navami.
Market registered decent gains in a volatile trade on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 64.02 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,974.24, its record closing high.
Key benchmark indices registered small losses on weak global cues on Thursday, 6 April 2017. The Sensex fell 46.90 points or 0.16% to settle at 29,927.34, its lowest closing level since 3 April 2017.
Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, 6 April 2017, kept the policy repo under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting on Thursday, 6 April 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy repo rate under the LAF unchanged at 6.25%.
Consequent upon the narrowing of the LAF corridor as elaborated in the accompanying Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies, the reverse repo rate under the LAF is at 6% per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.5%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of plus/minus 2%, while supporting growth, the RBI said.
Meanwhile, data released by Markit Economics during market hours on Thursday, 6 April 2017 showed that the Indian service sector moved further away from the demonetisation-related contractions seen towards the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India composite PMI output index increased to 52.3 in March, from 50.7 in February, signalling a quicker rise in private sector activity across the country.
Major Action &Announcement:
L&T said that the first 150 megawatts (MW) gas turbine for Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)'s 225 MW combined cycle (dual fuel) power plant at Sikalbaha in Chittagong district was synchronised with the national grid on 25 March 2017. The second 280 MW gas turbine for North West Power Generation Co (NWPGCL) combined cycle power plant of 360 MW capacity development project at Bheramara in Kushtia district was synchronised with the grid on 31 March 2017. Both these power plants are being executed by gas based power projects business unit of L&T Power based in Baroda, India. L&T Power is also executing an engineering, procurement and construction subcontract for another 400 MW gas based power plant at Bibiyana in Sylhet district, Bangladesh. It will be ready for commissioning in 2018-19.
Index pivotal Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 6.55% to Rs 1,405.55. RIL said that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has advised its telecom unit Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) to withdraw the 3 months complementary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise. Jio accepted this decision. It is in the process of fully complying with the regulator's advice, and will be withdrawing the 3 months complimentary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise as soon as operationally feasible, over the next few days.
Car major Maruti Suzuki India rose 3.98% to Rs 6,263.95 after the company announced 8.1% rise in total sales to 1.39 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Total domestic sales rose 7.7% to 1.27 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Exports grew by 12.6% to 11,764 units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made on Saturday, 1 April 2017.
Sate-run NTPC rose 1.05% to Rs 167.70. The company announced that Unit#1 of 660 megawatts (MW) of Solapur Super Thermal Power Project has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of NTPC and NTPC Group has become 44,194 MW and 51,410 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017.
Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,Overseas, geopolitical tensions intensified after the US military struck a Syrian airfield near Homs. US President Donald Trump said he ordered the missile strikes following the deadly chemical attack that took place earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve policy minutes, which were released on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The minutes had a slightly hawkish tone, as policymakers noted upside risk to the US economy. However, policymakers remain divided on whether inflation will rise to the Fed target of 2.0%. The minutes also stated FOMC members were in favor of taking steps to trim the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which has ballooned since the Fed implemented its aggressive quantitative easing program back in 2008.
Global Economic News:
US nonfarm payrolls up less than expected
US payrolls expanded by 98,000 in March, well below the 180,000 consensus forecast. In addition, both January and February payrolls were downwardly revised. However, the unemployment rate dipped 0.2% to 4.5%, the lowest level since May 2007, while average hourly earnings rose 2.7% versus a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.
US attacks Syrian airbase
In response to a chemical weapons attack in Syria by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the United States launched nearly five dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted at the airfield from which the attack is believed to have been launched. The missiles struck infrastructure at the airfield, according to the administration, but did not target chemical weapons storage facilities because of the potential for civilian casualties.
Trade, North Korea top Trump–Xi agenda
US president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s president, held talks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, late this week. The leaders discussed trade relations between the world’s two largest economies as well as security concerns, particularly over North Korea.
European manufacturing hits highest reading in nearly six years
Theeurozone purchasing managers’ index in March rose to its highest level in nearly six years, reaching 56.2 from 55.4. That’s the highest since April of 2011. European retail sales rose solidly for the second month in a row in February, rising 0.7%. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased to 57.2 in March from February’s 57.7.
GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS
Fed eyes balance sheet, stock valuations
The minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings rarely make much news, but the summary of the March meeting did so on several fronts. The committee discussed shrinking the Fed’s mammoth $4.5 trillion balance sheet beginning late this year by allowing some of the assets it acquired in the wake of the financial crisis to mature. However, the committee did not outline specifically how it will change its reinvestment policy. Those specifics are expected later in 2017. Also newsworthy was that members of the committee opined on asset valuations more directly than usual: “Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months.”
South Africa’s rating cut after Gordhan ousted
Credit rating agencies Standard and Poor’s and Fitch each downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating one notch to BB+ in the wake of the sacking of former finance minister PravinGordhan. Weakening standards of governance and public finances were to blame.
NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):
ADANIENT | 119.35 |
ADANIPORTS | 83.25 |
BAJAJFINSV | 4288.00 |
NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):
NOT YET IN (A) CAT | ------- |
MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
ADANI TRANSMISSION | 26.42 |
SOBHA | 21.43 |
NAVKAR | 19.27 |
MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
CONTAINER | -11.87 |
GSFC | -8.41 |
COX & KINGS | -8.08 |
Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (10 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions
Tuesday (11 Mar)
NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (12 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday (13 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment &Natural Gas Report
Friday (14 Mar)
Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales
Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ambuja Cements Ltd For Target Rs.254.00
Derivative Ideas
AMBUJACEM added around 7.2% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. On charts, it has witness upside breakout from Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. We suggest buying AMBUJACEM as per levels given below.
Strategy:
BUY AMBUJACEM APR FUTS BETWEEN 240-242, SL 237, TARGET 254.
Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty inched marginally higher in the holiday shortened week and settled closer to 9200, tracking mixed cues from domestic and global front.
* The coming week is also a holiday shortened one and we expect some decisive moves in stocks ahead of Q4FY17 corporate earnings. Besides, recent geo-political issue between the US and Syria will also remain on participants’ radar.
* Technically, we expect Nifty to consolidate further but the overall bias would remain on positive side. We suggest traders to use further profit taking to add quality stocks while keeping the leveraged positions hedged.
TECHNICAL VIEW:
S3 | S2 | S1 | NIFTY | R1 | R2 | R3 |
9,000 | 9,080 | 9,130 | 9,198.30 | 9,225 | 9,270 | 9,340 |
High made was 9268 again near the gann angles, and low made was 9218 so we made an INSIDE Bar candle today, Now plan remains the same buy above 9268 for a move towards 9312/9360/9410. Bearish below 9200 for a move towards 9130/9030. Nifty continue to trade below the gann angle as high made today was also 9250 so we are unable to close above the gann level of 9268, and we closed below 9200 so we are heading towards 9130/9070/9020 range. Bullish only on close above 9268.
Conclusion:
The Nifty witnessed a minor setback, closing the week on a flat note. Since the last couple of sessions, the Index was taking support near the previous swing high of 9218. However, today, it has broken below 9218 and has fallen back below 9200. Structurally, the fall seems to be a retracement of the previous rise and is unlikely to develop into a larger fall. 9180-9150 is a crucial support zone from where the Nifty can start the next leg up. The overall trend continues to be positive from a short-term as well as medium-term perspective. 9340 and 9500 are short-term and medium-term targets, respectively. On the flip side, 9000-8980 is the major support area.