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Events to watch this week

• US Q3 annual economic growth rate revised up
• Italian government rescues Monte deiPaschi
• Scotland threatens to leave UK
• BOJ upgrades assessment, leaves policy unchanged

The Week ahead:

• Japan releases consumer price and unemployment data on Monday, 26 December
• Japan reports retail sales data on Wednesday, 28 December
• US November pending home sales figures are released on Wednesday, 28 December

For the week,Global equities dipped modestly this week while US indices barely budged. The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average approached the psychologically significant 20,000 mark before pausing. US Treasury yields were down slightly on the week, falling to 2.53% from 2.58% a week ago. West Texas Intermediate crude lost about 75 cents on the week, ending around $52.50, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains historically low, at 11.60.

NIFTY- 7,985.75
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,595barrel
GOLD-Rs 27,002/10 gram
Rs/$-Rs 67.83

MARKET ROUND UP

Trading for the week ended on a positive note as key benchmark indices snapped a seven-day losing streak and settled with small gains after what was a volatile session of trade. The barometer index, the SandP BSE Sensex, gained 61.10 points or 0.24% to settle at 26,040.70. The Nifty 50 index rose 6.65 points or 0.08% at 7,985.75. The gains for the Nifty were lower than the Sensex's gains in percentage terms. After a subdued start to the session tracking weak Asian cues, indices reversed losses in early afternoon trade and consolidated further in the green in mid-afternoon trade. However, they pared gains in late trade, with the movement restricting within a narrow range throughout the session.

The Sensex gained 61.10 points or 0.24% to settle at 26,040.70, its highest closing level since 21 December 2016. The index rose 163.59 points or 0.62% at the day's high of 26,143.19. It lost 107.22 points or 0.41% at the day's low of 25,872.38, its lowest level since 24 November 2016.

The Nifty 50 index rose 6.65 points or 0.08% to settle at 7,985.75, its highest closing level since 21 December 2016. The index rose 43.50 points or 0.54% at the day's high of 8,022.60. It fell 37.05 points or 0.46% at the day's low of 7,942.05, its lowest level since 21 November 2016.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.4% and the BSE Small-Cap index dropped 0.04%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,Prime Minister NarendraModi on Saturday gave the green signal to a slew of infrastructure projects in Mumbai and Pune, besides inaugurating the new campus of SEBI's National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM) during his daylong visit to Maharashtra.

Modi was received by Governor C.V. Rao, Chief Minister DevendraFadnavis and other dignitaries on his arrival around noon by an IAF aircraft at the ChhatrapatiShivajiMaharaj International Airport here.

Major Action &Announcement:

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries rallied 2.6% after the company has informed BSE that one of the wholly owned subsidiaries of the company has acquired 13,000,000 Series B Preferred Stock of scPharmaceuticals Inc. (equivalent to 14.58% fully diluted equity stake on conversion) by way of allotment.

Wipro dipped 1%. The company announced that it has reached an agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to formally  resolve the previously disclosed six-year-old investigation.

Reliance Defence and Engineering Ltd rose 3.6% to Rs 55 after huge block deal. Around 12.3 million shares or 1.7% stake of the company changed hands in a single block deal. 

Welspun Enterprises plunged 4%. Welspun Enterprises a part of $2.3 billion Welspun Group, on Thursday announced plans to buy back up to 25% of its share capital at a price of Rs 62 per equity share.

Deepak Nitrite tanked 3.7% to Rs 85.80 after huge block deal. Around 3 million shares of the company changed hands in two block deal

JK Paper rose 2%.  JK Paper Ltd has now informed BSE that the Company has decided at its meeting of Committee of Directors held on December 22, 2016, to sell 20 per cent shareholding of OJPPL to OHC, one of the joint venture parties.

Suzlon Energy rose 0.29% after the company announced a joint venture with AMP Solar for the development and construction of a 15 MW solar PV project located at Achampet, Mahaboobnagar District, Telangana.

Tata Motors dropped 1.6%. The sentiments that prevailed at the Tata Motors extraordinary general meeting mirrored the EGMs at the storied group's other companies, with a majority of shareholders speaking in favour of Tata Sons' interim chairman Ratan Tata.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,European stocks were mixed with banks rising after two regional bellwethers settled US mortgage securities probes. Deutsche Bank's $7.2 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice over toxic mortgage securities sold in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis was nearly half of the fine initially levied in September. Credit Suisse also agreed to pay $5.3 billion to the DOJ to settle similar charges

In another boost to European financials, the Italian government approved a decree today, 23 December 2016, to bail out Monte deiPaschi di Siena after the world's oldest bank failed to win investor backing for a desperately needed capital increase. Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni said his Cabinet had authorised a 20 billion-euro ($20.9 billion) fund to help lenders in distress - first and foremost Monte deiPaschi.

Global Economic News:

US, UK growth revised higher
Already strong US gross domestic product figures were revised higher in the final reading for the third quarter. Originally reported at an annual rate of 3.3%, the economy grew 3.5%, according to an estimate by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Q4 growth looks to be somewhat less robust, with estimates in the 2.0% to 2.5% range at the moment. In the United Kingdom, Q3 growth was also revised higher. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the UK economy expanded 0.6% in the three months following the Brexit vote, up from an earlier 0.5% estimate.

Italy rescues world’s oldest bank
Italy’s government has authorized €20 billion bailout of that country’s third-largest lender, Monte deiPaschi di Siena, after the bank failed to raise sufficient capital in the financial markets to stay afloat. Monte deiPaschi has been in operation since 1742.

Scotland threatens to bolt UK
If the United Kingdom does not remain a member of the European Union’s single market, Scotland will hold another referendum on withdrawing from it, Scottish first
minister Nicola Sturgeon said this week. Scotland voted to remain within in the EU in last June’s referendum, as did Northern Ireland, but England and Wales produced large enough majorities to win the day for the Leave campaign. In 2014, Scotland held a referendum on independence that was defeated 55% to 45%.

BOJ upgrades economic outlook
The Bank of Japan upgraded its economic assessment, noting that a moderate recovery trend had continued while exports had picked up. Improved foreign demand was credited with the export boost, along with a weaker yen, which should help solidify the recovery, the bank said. The BOJ’s super-easy monetary policy was left unchanged.

Pair of European banks settle US mortgage cases
Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse each agreed to settle outstanding cases with the US Department of Justice involving the mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities dating back to the global financial crisis. Deutsche Bank settled for $7.2 billion, roughly half what the DOJ proposed in September. Credit Suisse agreed to pay roughly $5.3 billion. UK-based Barclays was unable to come to an agreement, and the DOJ has since filed suit in the matter.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Praxair and Linde agree to merge
After a two-year courtship, industrial gas giants Praxair and Linde have agreed to merge their operations. The combined value of the deal is $66.6 billion.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (26 Dec)
US Holiday, Market Closed
Tuesday(27 Dec)
Consumer Confidence

Wednesday(28 Dec)
Pending Home Sales Index
Thursday(29 Dec)
Jobless Claims
Friday(30 Dec)
Chicago PMI

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Sell REC Ltd For Target Rs. 120.00

The stock is making lower tops after forming a double top pattern at 140 resisting to cross the short term averages.The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning downwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakdown from current levels.

The stock has closed below its short term averages confirming the downtrend and the recent swing high will continue to act as strong resistance for the stock.

Recommendation

Short position can be initiated at Rs129-130 for target of Rs120 with a stop loss of Rs 134.

Indian Market Outlook:

Even as Nifty closed at 8000 levels this week, the Index tested levels of 7950 which is just 30 points shy of the previous month low of 7921. The benchmark Index remained weak in the last five trading sessions with FII's turning out as net sellers in the market. Nifty dropped almost 200 points from 8148 to 7953 in the course of the week's trading session.

This week the IT index was up by 2.26% expectation of growth backed by PM Mr. NarendraModi’s digital India stance post the demonetization.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty index traded with negative bias for most part of the week and finally concluded with cut of over 1.5%.

Technically, charts are still pointing toward further fall wherein 7900 spot is the immediate support. Also, we have derivatives expiry for the Dec month scheduled in the coming week and it’ll largely guide the market ahead , in absence of any major event.

Conclusion:

Nifty made low of 7942 but failed to close above 8000,Till we do not see closed above 8000 Bears have upper hand and high probability we can break swing low of 7916. Range of 7880-7900 is again the important zone, break of the range on downside move towards 7800/7700. Holding the same move towards 8130/8250.