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Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week Jan 16, 2017 – Jan 22, 2017

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Events to watch this week

  • December US core retail sales flat

  • China reports 2016 export drop

  • US small business optimism soars

  • World Bank projects modest 2017 growth uptick

The Week ahead:

  • US financial markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 16 January

  • The World Economic Forum in Davos begins on Tuesday, 17 January

  • The European Union reports consumer price data on Wednesday, 18 January

  • The United States reports consumer price data on Wednesday, 18 January

  • The European Central Bank holds a rate-setting meeting on Thursday, 19 January

  • China reports retail sales and gross domestic product figures on Friday, 20 January

For the week,Global equities extended gains this week as US financial firms kicked off the Q4 earning season with solid results. US 10-year Treasury note yields were steady at 2.42%. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped to $53 a barrel from $53.90 a week ago, and Global Brent crude dropped to $56 a barrel from $56.90. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) was steady at 11.20.

NIFTY- 8,400.35
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,586barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,385 gram
Rs/$-Rs 68.16

MARKET ROUND UP
The market edged higher last week, backed by positive global cues. The Sensex crossed the psychologically important 27,000 level. India's industrial production surged at 13-months high pace of 5.7% in November 2016 over November 2015, snapping 1.8% fall recorded in October 2016. The manufacturing sector's production jumped 5.5%, while mining output rebounded 3.9% after three months of decline, contributing to the increase in industrial production. The data was released by the government after market hours on Thursday, 12 January 2017.In the week ended Friday, 13 January 2017, the Sensex rose 478.83 points or 1.79% to settle at 27,238.06. The Nifty 50 index rose 156.55 points or 1.90% to settle at 8,400.35.

The BSE Mid-Cap index gained 317.31 points or 2.58% to settle at 12,639.03. The BSE Small-Cap index 249.52 points or 2.01% to settle at 12,689.85. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,Finance Minister ArunJaitley, in his address on the second day of vibrant Gujarat Global Investors Summit on Wednesday, 11 January 2017, on demonetization, said that difficult decisions initially pass through difficult phases as historic decisions have temporary pain attached to them.

Stressing the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), Jaitley said that most of the issues have been resolved, few critical issues are left which will be resolved in the next few weeks. He further added that GST Council is deliberative democracy in action and the impact of both GST and demonetization will be felt this year.

Major Action &Announcement:
Tata Steel was top gainer in the Sensex pack last week. The stock rose 6.36% to Rs 446.40 last week after the company announced that its total sales rose 27.45% to 29.94 lakh tonne in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The growth in sales was enabled by higher sales in the automotive segment, branded products and value-added products & scaling up of sales in new segments. The announcement was made during market hours on Monday, 9 January 2017.

Auto major Tata Motors rose 3.38% to Rs 514.65. Tata Motors Group's global wholesales rose 4% to 95,081 units in December 2016 over December 2015. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 10 January 2017. Tata Motors' subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover reported 12% rise in total retail sales to 55,375 units in December 2016 over December 2015. The announcement was made during market hours on 9 January 2017.

Software major TCS fell 1.38% to Rs 2,252. The company's consolidated net profit rose 2.9% to Rs 6778 crore on 1.5% increase in revenue to Rs 29735 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q2 September 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 12 January 2017. The results are as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

Infosys' consolidated net profit rose 2.8% to Rs 3708 crore on 0.2% fall in revenue to Rs 17273 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q2 September 2016. The consolidated net profit rose 1.5% to $547 million on 1.4% fall in revenue to $2551 million in Q3 December 2016 over Q2 September 2016. The results are as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

State-run NTPC advanced 4.36% to Rs 171.05 after the company signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rajasthan RajyaVidyutUtpadan and Rajasthan UrjaVikas Nigam for take-over of Chhabra thermal power plant stage-I (4x 250 MW) and stage-II (2x660 MW) of Rajasthan UrjaVikas Nigam. The announcement was made during market hours on Thursday, 12 January 2017.

US President-elect Donald Trump said in his first press conference late Wednesday, 11 January 2017 that pharmaceutical companies were getting away with murder with respect to drug pricing and promised a complete turnaround, making healthcare less expensive and better. He said that US is the largest buyer of drugs in the world, and yet, the country does not bid properly, prioritising bringing back drug industries back to the US. He added that US firms would start bidding and save billions. Trump also said he would repeal and replace Obamacarethe country's existing affordable healthcare legislation-shortly after price approvals, which could impact pharma companies.

Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,investors will look forward to the policies and actions of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose focus is on creating jobs and increasing spending in the US. If Trump's policies run into headwinds, then the domestic market may witness heightened volatility. China Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for December 2016 will be announced on Monday, 16 January 2017. China's Industrial Production data for December 2016 will be announced on Monday, 16 January 2017.
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for for December 2016 will be announced on Tuesday, 17 January 2017.

Global Economic News:

US holiday sales disappoint
US retail sales rose 0.6% in December, but were flat when excluding automobile and gasoline sales.

China’s 2016 exports fall
Exports from China fell for a second year amid persistent weakness in global trade. The possibility of disagreements with the United States over trade does not brighten the outlook for 2017. In 2016, exports fell 7.7% while imports slid 5.5%. There were some bright spots discernible, suggesting domestic demand is improving. Record amounts of oil, iron ore, copper and soybeans were imported in 2016.

Outlook upbeat for small businesses
The National Federation of Independent Businesses termed the jump in its small business optimism indicator “stratospheric” as the number of business owners who expect better business conditions jumped 38 points. The index rose to 105.8, its highest level since 2004. The increased optimism is leading to more business activity, such as capital investment, according to the group.

Global economy to expand 2.7% says World Bank
Despite stagnant global trade, subdued investment and heightened policy uncertainty, the World Bank expects global growth to expand at a 2.7% rate in 2017, up from 2.3% in 2016, a post-crisis low. Hoped- for fiscal stimulus from the US could generate fast growth, the bank said, though it cautioned that trade protection could have adverse effects.

Pace of US stimulus questioned
President-elect Donald Trump held a press conference this week but did not lay out a clear timeline or framework for the tax cuts and regulatory reforms he campaigned on. Markets are growing concerned that stimulus could come later than expected or be smaller in size than first envisioned. Trump did say that the Affordable Care Act would be repealed and replaced “essentially simultaneously.” The president-elect said that he would place his business interests in a trust and transfer control of his company to his two adult sons.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

BOE’s Carney: Brexit no longer biggest risk to stability
Bank of England governor Mark Carney said this week that Brexit is no longer the biggest single risk to financial stability in the United Kingdom. That’s a dramatic change in tune from the nation’s top central banker. Before the referendum in June, Carney warned of severe economic consequences if Britons voted to leave the European Union. Now, Carney says that the bank will very likely revise its economic forecast higher next month. The EU, Carney said, has more to lose from a “hard” Brexit than the UK.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

Adani Power

37.30

BEML

1245..00

NLINDIA

94.50

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):


RCOM

31.05

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


beml LTD

21.50

NLC INDIA

14.19

GUJMINERAL DEV

13.97

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:


OIL INDIA LTD

-26.42

CADILA HEALTHCARE

-7.99

RELAINCE COMMU

-7.10



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (16 Jan)
All Markets Closed
Tuesday(17 Jan)
Week Bill Anouncement& Month Bill Auction
Wednesday(18 Jan)
Consumer Price Index &MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday(19 Jan)
Jobless Claims& Natural Gas Report
Friday(20 Jan)
No Major Data

Fundamental Pick of the week:

BUY Tata power Ltd For Target Rs. 88.00

The stock rose to two and half month closing high post giving break-out from “Symmetrical Triangle” pattern.We believe the stock will surge in the near-term, as (i) substantial rise in volume on the break-out day and (ii) gradual rise in RSI & MACD post their positive cross-over is signaling strength in the stock and in favor of probable rebound.On the higher side, the stock will initially face resistance around prior swing high and monthly moving average thereafter.

Recommendation
Long position can be initiated in Rs79.50-79 range for target of Rs88 with a strict stop loss of Rs76.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened higher and ended the trading session on a positive note. It is approaching significant resistance levels. The 20 Week Moving Average (WMA) and the 50% retracement of the fall from 8968 to 7893 are converging at around 8430. It would be interesting to see if the bears manage to defend the crucial resistance level of 8430 or not. If the Nifty breaks and sustains above 8430, then a move towards 8510-8560 is likely. However, the Index is losing momentum on the upside. The hourly momentum indicator is already showing a negative divergence and has also given a negative crossover. Therefore, some caution needs to be maintained while initiating fresh long positions. The bulls will gain momentum if the Nifty breaks and sustains above 8430. The Index is interestingly poised at this moment. It continues to make higher top and higher bottom, indicating that the current uptrend can persist in the near term. Traders holding long positions in the Nifty should trail stop loss, as the momentum is weakening.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

8,265

8,315

8,361

8,400.35

8,449

8,499

8,540

Conclusion:

Nifty continue its uptrend now range of 8430-8435 is very important zone of resistance,crossing the same rally can extend towards 8600. Taking resistance in zone we can see downmove towards 8250. High made today was 8417 and low 8382 and close at 8407. As we have weekly closing tomorrow so bulls will be happy to close above the gann resistance zone as shown in below chart,bears will be happy to close below 8380. Close above 8440 can see next round of upmove towards 8555/8598. Bears below 8370 can move back towards 8270-8250 range.

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