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Events to watch this week

• Payroll rebound boosts June Fed rate hike chances
• Macron poised to win French presidential election
• Brexit battle lines harden
• European growth picks up

The Week ahead:

• The French presidential election takes place on Sunday, 7 May
• China reports foreign exchange reserves on Sunday, 7 May
• China reports its trade balance on Monday, 8 May
• ECB president Mario Draghi addresses the Dutch parliament on Wednesday, 10 May
• The Bank of England meets to set interest rates on Thursday, 11 May
• The US reports retail sales and its Consumer Price Index on Friday, 12 May

For the week,Global equities extended their gains this week against a backdrop of improved economic growth, particularly in Europe. Slumping commodity prices may prove worrisome down the road, however, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude falling to nearly a six-month low, ending the week near $45.50, down from $49.00 last Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose modestly, to 2.35%, up 4 basis points on the week. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), held steady near 10.

NIFTY- 9,285.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2,970barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,070 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.38

MARKET ROUND UP

Key indices settled with small losses as profit booking emerged after indices hit record highs in the recent past. The Sensex settled below the psychological 30,000 mark after regaining that mark during the week. The Nifty had hit record closing high on 4 May 2017.

Key indices had posted decent gains on 4 May 2017 that saw Nifty scaling record closing high on that day after witnessing listless trade in first two sessions of the week. However, drop on the final session of the week tracking weak global stocks caused indices to wrap the week with minor losses.

The market fell in two out of four sessions in truncated trading week. The market remained closed on Monday, 1 May 2017, on account of Maharashtra Day.

The Sensex declined 59.60 points or 0.19% to settle at 29,858.80. The Nifty 50 index skidded 18.75 points or 0.2% to settle at 9,285.30.

The BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 0.54%. The decline in the index was higher than the Sensex's drop in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.1%. The decline in the index was lower than the Sensex's fall in percentage terms.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,data released by Markit Economics during market hours on 4 May 2017 showed that the rate of increase in Indian service sector activity weakened in April 2017. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services PMI Business Activity Index was down at 50.2 in April, from 51.5 in March.

Market Economics in a press release issued during market hours on 2 May 2017, said that manufacturing conditions in India improved for the fourth straight month in April. However, the headline Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) remained unchanged at 52.5 in April as in March.

Meanwhile, the combined index of eight core industries comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 202.9 in March 2017, which was 5% higher compared to the index of March 2016. The data was released by the government on 1 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:

Tata Steel was down 3.53%. The company announced that Tata Steel UK has completed the sale of its speciality steels business to Liberty House Group for a total consideration of 100 million pounds. The announcement was made during market hours on 2 May 2017.

Housing finance major HDFC rose 0.61%. The company's net profit fell 21.58% to Rs 2044.20 crore on 7.7% decline in total income to Rs 8514.51 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during market hours on 4 May 2017.

ONGC dropped 1.56%. ONGC Videsh, a 100% subsidiary of ONGC announced that it has encountered exciting result in its well Mariposa-1 which is under drilling in CPO-5 block of Colombia. ONGC Videsh is the operator of the block and holds 70% participating interest and Amerisur Resources holds the remaining 30%. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

TCS gained 2.11%. The company said it has been selected by one of Europe's largest utilities companies Vattenfall-to provide IT services across multiple European operations including Swedan, Germany and the Netherlands. The announcement was made after market hours on 2 May 2017. The managed services agreement is a multi-year partnership in which TCS will be responsible for the development and maintenance of a large number of applications.

Wipro rose 0.88%. The company announced that it has joined Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) as a founding member. EEA is a collaboration of enterprises to promote, develop and implement enterprise grade Ethereum based blockchain applications across industries for specific business use cases. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

ICICI Bank surged 7.2%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. The bank's net profit jumped 188.5% to Rs 2024.64 crore on 10.8% decline in total income to Rs 16585.76 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on 3 May 2017.

Hero MotoCorp gained 1.38%. The company's total two-wheeler sales declined 3.5% to 5.91 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. The two-wheeler industry witnessed heavy retail off-take towards the end of March 2017 in view of the transition from BS III to BS IV vehicles. The announcement was made on 1 May 2017.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 1.88%. The company's total sales rose 19.5% to 1.51 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Domestic sales grew by 23.4% to 1.44 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Exports declined 29.4% to 6,723 units in April 2017 over April 2016. The announcement was made on Monday, 1 May 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,the US Federal Reserve on 3 May 2017, left monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and indicated it remains on track to deliver two more rate increases by year-end. The Fed said that it would not change its interest rate target this month. However, the Fed also stated that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, fuelling hopes among investors for future rate rises.

China's service sector expanded at the slowest pace in nearly a year, a private gauge showed on 4 May 2017, pointing to possible softness in the sector. The Caixin China services purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.5 in April--the lowest since May 2016--from 52.2 in March, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said.

China's nationwide factory activity expanded at a slower pace in April, with a private gauge falling to a seven-month low. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 50.3 in April from 51.2 in March, indicating a slower expansion of activity, Caixin Media Co. and research firm market said on 2 May 2017.

Global Economic News:

Nonfarm payrolls rebound
Friday’s US employment report was fairly upbeat, with 211,000 added to payrolls in April versus a downward revised 79,000 in March. The unemployment rate fell to a 4.4%, a 10-year low, though average hourly earnings were restrained, rising a less-than-expected 2.5%. The report paves the way for likely rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve at its June meeting. The Fed earlier this week held rates steady but said weakness in the US economy in the first quarter was likely transitory.

Macron holds formidable lead ahead of Sunday’s vote
Thirty-nine-year-old centrist Emmanuel Macron, seeking elective office for the first time, looks poised to win the French presidency on Sunday. He leads right-wing populist Marine Le Pen by an average of 20 points in opinion polls. The same polls proved quite accurate in the election’s first round, and showed that Macron bested Le Pen in Wednesday’s head-to-head debate. If Macron wins, as expected, two-round parliamentary elections in June will be critical for his fledgling En Marche! party, which will have to cobble together a working majority to allow Macron to govern effectively.

UK–EU divide widens ahead of negotiations
Explosive media reports this week documenting a meeting on 26 April between Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker show just how far apart the two sides are before Brexit negotiations begin in earnest. While the United Kingdom hopes to negotiate the terms of its divorce from the European Union and its future trade relations in parallel, the EU has made clear that exit terms must be well on their way to being ironed out before it will entertain trade talks. Also in dispute is how large a bill the UK will have to foot to exit the EU. Numbers as high as €100 billion were floated in the media this week. Prime Minster May will lead her party into elections on 8 June, so the public spat with the EU this week comes at a fortuitous time for her, as it plays well to the anti-EU faction of the UK electorate.

European economy kicks into gear
Economic growth in the Eurozone grew at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2017, outstripping US growth, which was an anemic 0.7% annualized rate over the same period. Purchasing managers' indices reported this week suggest that European growth might be accelerating further.

Health care reform bill emerges from US House
After months of Republican infighting, a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare emerged from the US House of Representatives this week. The bill will likely face a stiff challenge in the Senate, where lawmakers will attempt to fashion a bill under the so-called reconciliation rule that won’t require 60 votes for consideration. A Senate vote on the measure is expected to be some months away.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Largest-ever US municipal bankruptcy for Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico filed for a form of bankruptcy this week. The territory is weighed down by approximately $75 billion in debt, making the filing the largest in US history. Detroit’s $9 billion filing held the previous record. A decade-long recession, a shrinking population and a dramatically underfunded pension system forced the territory to seek protection from creditors.

As of 3 May, 357 of the 500 constituents of the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the first quarter. Earnings are expected to increase 14.2% from a year ago. Stripping out energy, earnings growth is 10%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to increase 7.2%. Ex energy, they are seen up 5.3%. The next-twelve-months earnings estimate for the S&P 500 is 17.7x.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (08May)

Labor Market Conditions

Tuesday (09 may)

NFIB Small Bussiness

Wednesday (10May)

MBA Mortgage Applications

Thursday (11 May)

Jobless Claims& Fed Balance Sheet

Friday (12May)

Consumer Price Index

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Hindustan Unilever Ltd For Target Rs.1,020.00

Derivative Ideas

* Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL. HUL's products include foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products and water purifiers.

* On the charts, it has marginally retraced from its 52-week high i.e. 954 and has formed a fresh buying pivot after consolidating in a narrow range.The chart looks upbeat from hereon and we believe that the prevailing momentum will continue ahead as well and expect of making a new record high soon.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

As expected Nifty consolidated and traded in a narrow range of 107 points throughout the week but hits new all time high by 10 points on the back of strong up-move in Banking stocks like ICICI Bank and PSU banks as the new ordinance to resolve the bad loans kept the sector in momentum. The result season was mixed with strong performance from ICICI Bank, HDFC, and Marico while muted results from Biocon, Bharat Finance, Dabur and JSW Energy.  Core sector output rose by 5% in March, recovering from the one-year low growth rate of 1% in February keeping the industrial segment in focus. Global markets also remained flat as FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged, hinting at hikes in the next meeting in June. Commodities continued to remain under pressure with dollar index trading at sub 100 levels.

 Nifty has ended flat down by 0.3% after hitting a new all time high at 9377 reversing the entire week gains on Friday to close at 9,285 levels.  There was sharp profit booking in high beta sectors and stocks during the week. Metals, Energy and Auto declined by 4.1%, 2.8% and 1.5% respectively, while IT and Bank Nifty gained by 1.4% and 1%, respectively for the week. CNX Midcaps and Small cap ended flat to negative after hitting an all time high. 

Conclusion:

We continue to believe markets would consolidate and also expect some correction to fill the gap level which was left near 9,225 levels. It could head for large correction if 9,000 gets broken on the downside as it is a very important level placed since the start of the up move from January 2017.  The option data also continues to suggest a strong support at 9000 with an OI of 50 lakhs shares in put options. On the upside 9400 has the highest OI of 55 lakhs shares in call options.  

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Events to watch this week

• Trump may nominate Yellen to second term

• Geopolitical tensions rise

• Four candidates in French presidential mix

• Fed chair: Economy healthy now

• Canadian central bank head warns on house prices

The Week ahead:

• China reports GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Monday, 17 April

• The United States releases industrial production data on Tuesday, 18 April

• The eurozone releases its consumer price index on Wednesday, 19 April

• The Fed’s Beige Book is published on Wednesday, 19 April

• The United Kingdom reports retail sales data on Friday, 21 April

• US existing home sales data are released on Friday, 21 April

For the week,Global equities dipped this week with the intensification of geopolitical jitters over rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the possibility of a stronger US commitment to oust Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. A safe-haven bid pushed the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note down to its lowest point of the year at 2.25%. Oil prices continued their rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $53.25 from $52 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, jumped to 16 from 12.8 last week.

NIFTY- 9,150.80
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,423 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,418 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.41

MARKET ROUND UP 
Indian equity markets registered modest losses in the week ended Thursday, 13 April 2017, weighed by weak global cues. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex lost 245.16 points or 0.82% to settle at 29,461.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 47.50 points or 0.51% to settle at 9,150.80. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.82%. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.36%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 
Domestic bourses remain shut on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Dr. Baba SahebAmbedkarJayanti and Good Friday. 
Sentiment in global markets remained subdued during the week as investors were cautious amid geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. In recent days, the trading mood has been dented by heightened geopolitical tensions. 

Key benchmark indices suffered modest losses on Wednesday, 12 April 2017, amid volatile session of trade ahead of the release of key domestic economic data later in the day. The Sensex fell 144.87 points or 0.49% to settle at 29,643.48, its lowest closing level since 10 April 2017.

Key benchmark indices wrapped the trading week with moderate losses on Thursday, 13 April 2017, as sentiment was subdued after domestic data showed that industrial production contracted in February and consumer price inflation edged up in March. The Sensex declined 182.03 points or 0.61% to settle at 29,461.45, its lowest closing level since 28 March 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,industrial production declined 1.2% in February 2017 over February 2016, snapping 3.3% growth recorded in January 2017. The manufacturing sector's production dipped 2% in February 2017, mainly contributing to the dip in industrial production. 

The inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.81% in March 2017 (new base 2012=100), compared with 3.65% in February 2017. The CPI and IIP data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017. 

Major Action &Announcement:
BhartiAirtel was down 1.15%. The company said its DTH arm Airtel Digital TV launched Internet TV India's first hybrid STB, powered by Android TV, which brings the best of online content to the TV screen along with a bouquet of over 500 plus satellite TV channels. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Tata Motors declined 3.22%. The company said group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose 9% at 1.29 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 6% at 42,596 units in March 2017 over March 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India lost 2.79%. The company said its total production rose 10.29% to 1.53 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017. 

L&T fell 0.5%. The company said the power transmission and distribution business of L&T Construction has won its single largest order in the Middle East from their esteemed customer Kahramaa' - Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation - for its ongoing Qatar Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase XIII. 

NTPC declined 1.85%. The company said that Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture company between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has achieved financial closure on 10 April 2017 to set up 1320 megawatts (MW) (2 x 660 MW) coal based Maitree Super Thermal Power Project at Rampal in Bagerhat District of Khulna division, Bangladesh. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Infosys slumped 5.08%. The company said that consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fell 2.8% to Rs 3603 crore on 0.9% decline in revenue to Rs 17120 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q3 December 2016. The result was announced before market hours on Thursday, 13 April 2017.

Wipro lost 3.27%. The company said it has completed the acquisition of Brazilian IT service provider InfoSERVER. The impact of the buyout will reflect in the financials of the company from the Q1 June 2017, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.93%. RIL's subsidiary, Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced that the Jio Summer Surprise has been fully withdrawn, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China's consumer inflation rebounded slightly in March after slipping to a more than two-year low in the previous month, official data showed. China's consumer price index increased 0.9% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 0.8% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Japan's current account surplus stood at 2.81 trillion yen ($25.26 billion) in February, finance ministry data showed, the biggest surplus since March 2016. The result is the 32nd straight month of current account surpluses. This February's current account surplus was the largest on record for February.

Meanwhile, industrial production in the eurozone dropped unexpectedly in February from the month before, led by falling energy output, the European Union's statistics agency said. Output of the eurozone's factory, mines and utilities decreased by 0.3% from the month before, but rose by 1.2% from February last year, Eurostat said.

Global Economic News:

Trump shifts tone
US president Donald Trump sounded decidedly more moderate than he did during last fall’s campaign in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The president reversed course on multiple fronts. First, Trump said he may nominate US Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen to a second term after saying last fall that she was "toast" and he would replace her at the end of her term. He also reversed his opposition to the US Export-Import Bank, which finances US exports. Critics cite the bank as an example of “corporate welfare.” Additionally, the president shifted gears on NATO, saying the alliance is no longer obsolete because it has begun to fight terrorism. Finally, Trump said the United States will not label China a currency manipulator, thus breaking another campaign vow. The reversal may represent an attempt to entice China to increase pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

North Korea, Syria in spotlight
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean peninsula as the North Korean regime threatened a nuclear strike in response to any US aggression. North Korea is believed to be trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. This week, the US navy dispatched a carrier task force to the western Pacific in a show of force, while Chinese president Xi Jinping said that China is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. President Trump called on China to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor, saying if China won’t help, the US could act alone. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 nations continue to pressure Russia to abandon its support of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in the wake of last week’s chemical weapons attack on Syrian rebels which led to a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase by US forces.

Poloz: House prices can go down as well as up
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned of the growing role of speculation in the recent acceleration in Toronto-area house prices. The central banker said that prices had accelerated from percentages in the high teens to the 30% zone, adding there is no fundamental story that can explain the rise. “I think it is timely to remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up,” he said. Poloz also said that further rate cuts in Canada are no longer on the table.

EM debt issuance boomed in Q1
Borrowers in emerging markets raised a record $181 billion during the first quarter of the year. Corporates raised $119.1 billion, beating the Q1 2013 record, while sovereigns raised $61.5 billion, topping the year-ago quarter by over $16 billion, according to data from J.P. Morgan. Total emerging market debt rose to $55 trillion in 2016, equal to 215% of the collective GDP of emerging nations.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Four contenders vie for two spots in French runoff
For months, there have been three candidates in contention for the two spots in the second round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, the populist firebrand, has consistently led recent polls, trailed closely by centrist Emmanuel Macron. François Fillon, hampered by an ethics scandal, has held the third position most of the time. Now a fourth candidate, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has entered the fray and is in a virtual tie for third place with Fillon. The conventional wisdom is that Le Pen will be beaten handily in the second round by either Macron or Fillon, who are more centrist. But the emergence of Mélenchon could put an unexpected wrinkle into the process. First-round voting takes place on 23 April.

Yellen: Fed allowing economy to coast
Speaking at the University of Michigan, Fed chair Yellen said that the US economy is healthy and that the Fed is now shifting its focus, taking its foot off the accelerator and allowing the economy to “coast” for a while, saying a gradual path of interest rate increases can get us where we need to go. Yellen also opined on several bills that are working their way through Congress, expressing concern that the Fed could become subject to political pressure if the bills are signed into law.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (17 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (18 Mar)
Housing Market Index
Wednesday (19 Mar)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications 
Friday (21 Mar)
Jobless Claims

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd For Target Rs.2950.00 -

Derivative Ideas
The stock is consolidating after forming a bottom at 2755 levels with positive price action in the past few days confirming an uptrend. The key technical indicators has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock has closed above its short term averages
* The stock has strong support on its weekly charts holding the short and medium term averages and the positive divergence in the last few weeks candle confirms the up move.
*Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs. 2810 for target of Rs 2950 with a stop loss of Rs 2740.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened on a flat note today and traded with a downward bias. It has reached near the lower end of the 9180-9150 support range. On the hourly chart, the fall is appearing as a corrective one. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty seems to have formed a wedge on the hourly chart, whose implications are likely to be bullish. Thus, the next leg up could be around the corner. We are maintaining our positive view on the Nifty with a cautious approach. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, ie 9120 will be the subsequent support, with 9000-8980 being a major support area. On the way up, 9340 and 9500 are the short-term and medium-term targets, respectively.  

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Nifty, after trading range bound for most part of the week, ended lower and lost nearly half a percent and finally settled at 9150.80.
* Existence of major hurdle around 9300 mark combined with weak global cues and anxiety ahead of earnings season capped upside; however, buying interest was witnessed in select index major amid volatility.
* In the coming week, we expect volatility to remain high due to ongoing earnings season and lingering geo-political issue.
* Considering all, we suggest participants maintaining stock specific approach and keep a check on the leveraged positions.

Conclusion:

Bank Nifty made low of  21551 so bulls held on to 21500 in today’s correction so we can continue the upmove towards 21850/21990 as we have weekly closing tomorrow, Friday being an holiday. Bearish below 21500 for a move towards 21400/21350. Bank Nifty continue to hold on to its gann angle suggesting bulls are holding the grip. Holding the low of 21600 BUlls can continue to see upmove towards 21800/21920/22000. Bearish on close below 21520 for a move towards 21400/21350/21230. New time cycle is starting from coming week (More Details in Weekly Analysis) so we can see good trending move in next 1-2 days.