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July PMI services growth slips to 4-month low on rising inflation

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The PMI decreased to 55.5 in July 2022 from 59.2 in June

July PMI services growth slips to 4-month low on rising inflation

The S&P Global  decreased to 55.5 in July 2022 from 59.2 in June, and below market consensus of 58.5, pointing to the weakest expansion in the sector since March, as weaker sales growth and inflationary pressures restricted the latest upturn in business activity.

But the index has been above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction for a year and July's reading was higher than the long-term average.

Moreover, despite sliding from an over 11-year high set in June, the relatively strong reading was underpinned by firm domestic demand.

"There were many positives in the latest results. Business activity continued to rise strongly, with a similarly robust uplift in new business as the offering of new services and marketing efforts bore fruit," said Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

There was, however, a noticeable loss of momentum for the Indian service economy as demand was somewhat curtailed by competitive pressures, elevated inflation and unfavourable weather."

Like many other countries, Asia's third largest economy has been grappling with soaring inflation - at a near-decade high - exacerbated by rising commodity prices. A weaker rupee has further bumped up imported inflation.

The  (RBI) embarked on its tightening cycle in May, later than most of its peers, but is expected to front-load subsequent hikes to combat inflation.

The new business sub-index was at a four-month low but faired well on historical standards as domestic demand remained firm. New export orders contracted for a 29th straight month, since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Most firms had enough manpower to handle current requirements leading to subdued job creation last month, much the same as in June.

Input prices rose sharply and stayed above the long-run average, despite softening to the slowest pace since February. Food, fuel, inputs, labour, retail, tool and transportation costs were all up.

Firms chose to pass some of the additional costs to customers and although that pace eased from an almost five-year high set in June it was still above trend.

The overall S&P Global India Composite  Output Index was strong at 56.6, supported by the factory  that rose to its highest since November. However, the composite PMI was at a four-month low and down from 58.2 in June.

Services growth falls in July as inflation and weather bite

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The fall in the services PMI comes after data released on August 1 showed the manufacturing index rose to an eight-month high of 56.4 in JulyServices growth falls in July as inflation and weather bite

India's services activity expanded again in July, although the S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slumped to 55.5 from an over 12 year high of 59.2 in June, data released on August 3 showed.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

"There was...a noticeable loss of momentum for the Indian service economy as demand was somewhat curtailed by competitive pressures, elevated inflation and unfavourable weather," noted Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

GST e-invoicing must for entities with Rs 10 cr turnover from Oct 1

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Presently, the process is mandatory for businesses with an annual turnover of Rs 20 cr and above

Goods and services tax, gst

The government has widened the ambit of e-invoicing for businesses by lowering the mandatory turnover threshold to Rs 10 crore from Rs 20 crore under the  (GST) regime. The new threshold starts October 1.

The move is aimed at digitising a higher volume of transactions, transparency in sales reporting, reducing errors and mismatches, automating data entry work, and improving compliance.

Sources said the government will further extend it to entities with a turnover of Rs 5 crore, seeking to plug revenue leakage and ease compliance.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) notified the rule late Monday amending the current threshold in line with the recommendations of the  Council.

'Business Standard' reported on July 4 about the government’s plans to make  e-invoicing mandatory for companies with a turnover of Rs 10 crore and then Rs 5 crore in the current financial year.

E-invoicing (electronic billing) started in October 2020 and was made mandatory for entities with a turnover of Rs 500 crore and above. This threshold was brought down to Rs 100 crore and later to Rs 50 crore in 2021 for business-to-business (B2B) transactions.

Taxpayers must generate invoices on their internal system or billing software and then report them to the invoice registration portal (IRP)--a requirement to get  (ITC).


Notices issued to three Chinese mobile companies for tax evasion: Nirmala Sitharaman

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Replying to supplementaries during the Question Hour, the minister said the three companies are Oppo, Vivo India and Xiaomi.sitharaman: Notices issued to three Chinese mobile companies for tax evasion:  Nirmala Sitharaman - The Economic Times

The government is looking into cases of alleged tax evasion by three mobile companies of China and notices have been given to them, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.

Replying to supplementaries during the Question Hour, the minister said the three companies are Oppo, Vivo India and Xiaomi.

The Department of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) has issued a notice to mobile company Oppo for total customs duty of Rs 4,389 crore and these are on the grounds of mis-declaration of certain goods leading to a short payment in customs duty, she said, adding, "duty evasion we think is about Rs 2,981 crore".

"Undervaluation of imported goods for the purpose of payment of customs duty, that we think is an evasion of Rs 1,408 crore," she said.

She said voluntarily they have come about to deposit Rs 450 crore, much against the demand of Rs 4,389 crore. Regarding the other companies, she said Xiaomi is another mobile company which deals with assembled MI mobile phones.

"Three show-cause notices have been issued to them and the approximate duty liability there is about Rs 653 crore.For the three show cause notices, they have been issued, they have deposited only Rs 46 lakh," the minister said.

The third company is Vivo India, for whom also there is a demand notice issued for Rs 2,217 crore for which they have deposited Rs 60 crore as voluntary deposit, she informed the House.

"Besides these, the ED is looking at 18 companies that were established by the same group Vivo and there they have voluntarily remitted Rs 62 crore as deposit but the parent company outside of India has the total sales of 1.25 lakh crore.

"Of the Rs 1.25 lakh crore total sales, Vivo has transferred through these 18 companies huge amounts of funds and it is believed that Vivo India has, in turn, remitted 0.62 lakh crore to its parent company which is outside India," Sitharaman said.

Irdai tightens anti-money laundering rules for insurance companies

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The guidelines come as the regulator is preparing the ground for a larger exposure of foreign companies and a wider range of domestic financial sector companies to enter the sector

Irdai tightens anti-money laundering rules for insurance companies

The  regulator has stiffened the anti-money laundering rules as part of consolidation of the guidelines for the sector.

The rules issued to consolidate and update guidelines on anti-money laundering replaces the assorted norms issued since 2013. The key change is that exemptions and relaxations from the guidelines for companies have been done away with. So no life, general, or health insurer can claim any relaxations to comply with the money-laundering rules, as set out by the Reserve Bank of India.

Also, the  Regulatory and Development Authority has made the level of risk assessment a function of the size of the business of the companies. So the “periodicity of conducting anti-money laundering and counter financing of terrorism programme review and compliance audit and risk assessment (shall) not be fixed but based on risk exposure by the insurer”.

The guidelines come as the regulator is preparing the ground for a larger exposure of foreign companies and a wider range of domestic financial sector companies to enter the sector. Globally, all regulators are upping the ante on these risks.

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Global slowdown, monetary tightening to weigh on India's rapid recovery, economists say

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While the government has said that there is zero chance of a recession, the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening is expected to curb activities.Global slowdown, monetary tightening to weigh on India's rapid recovery, economists  say

Although the recent spate of high-frequency data has raised hopes of a sustained economic recovery, experts see Asia’s third-largest economy facing headwinds from a slowing global growth and monetary tightening by its central bank.

India's manufacturing activity remains robust with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index hitting an eight-month high of 56.4 percent in July, indicating that price pressure has started to cool off.

This was supported by other fundamentals recorded in July. The month saw passenger car sales jumping 16 percent, while goods and services tax revenue spiked to its second highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore. Eight core industries continued to average 12.7 percent in June.

While the domestic demand recovery that will ensure that growth remains reasonably robust, there are several countervailing risks going ahead, economists pointed out.

Fears of a crisis worsened with the Indian currency being battered in recent weeks amid the global risk-off, slipping below the key psychological level of 80 to a dollar. Since India runs a perennial trade deficit, this also adds to the inflationary pressure in the economy.

While the Reserve Bank of India will strive to engineer a soft-landing for the economy, we think some growth sacrifice will be inevitable,” Rahul Bajoria, Barclays managing director and chief India economist, wrote in a note.

“A weakening global outlook, tightening domestic financial conditions and elevated energy costs could weigh on the recovery in the coming months. Spillovers from external weakness are visible in India’s new export orders, and this may dampen manufacturing sentiment in H2 2022,” he said.

The US Federal Reserve may continue to tighten the monetary policy despite conflicting economic signals and there is a renewed threat of a Chinese slowdown that may weigh on the overall growth. The International Monetary Fund last week cut its global growth forecast for 2022 by 40 basis points to 3.2 percent and by 70 basis points to 2.9 percent for 2023. The world could soon be on the brink of a recession, the agency warned.

While the Indian government has said that there is zero chance of a recession, the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening is expected to curb activities.

India’s central bank, which is meeting later this week, is widely expected to raise the key policy repo rate by at least 35 basis points as it seeks to curb inflation which has been hovering outside its tolerance ceiling for several months. Since early May, the central bank has increased the repo rate by 90 basis points to 4.9 percent.

The robust manufacturing PMI will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50 basis points this week, despite signs that price pressure in the manufacturing sector is past its peak, Adam Hoyes, Assistant Economist at Capital Economics, said.

Inflation is still running far above the RBI mandate at 7.01 percent in June and food prices should still drive the headline CPI inflation higher in July. "What’s more, there is a risk that output price rises do not cool off if firms decide to pass on more of their higher input costs. And output prices in the services sector were on the rise in June,” Hoyes said.

Taking out the base effects from the latest core industries data shows that India’s industrial sector is entering a weaker phase, Capital Economics said in a separate note.

Share Market Closing Note | Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 August, 2022:

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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note

Nifty ends above 17,300, Sensex reclaims 58,000 led by auto, power, oil & gas.Stock Market Today, June 21, 2022: Share Market Updates, Share Market News  Today, Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Today

All the sectoral indices ended on positive note with Auto, Power, and Oil & Gas indices gained 2-3 percent.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot close above 17300 level will result in some further upmove in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is likely to follow in the market. Avoid open short positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.10 PM

Just In:

Bank of England set for biggest interest rate rise in 27 years.

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Topic :- Time:2.10 PM

Nifty is zooming and banknifty is turning further bullish now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17320 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17280 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:1.45 PM

LME INVENTORY DATA:

Aluminum down by -2900MT

Copper up by 700MT

Lead down by -625MT

Nickel up by 174MT

Zinc down by -775MT

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

NATURALGAS Trading View:

NG is trading at 626.50.If it breaks and trade below 626 level then expect some further decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 627.80 level then some upmove can follow in NG.

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Topic :- Time:1.20 PM

Just In:

Indias manufacturing PMI hits 8-month high in July.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if now manages to trade and sustain above 17300 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17260 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty. Currently Nifty spot is trading at 17290.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 655.30.If it breaks and trade below 654.20 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 656.50 level then some upmove can be seen in Copper.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Nifty is trading in a range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17280 level then expect some upmove and below 17260 level some decline can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty is going strong now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17280 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17260 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Results on August 1

ITC, UPL, Zomato, Arvind, Bajaj Consumer Care, Barbeque-Nation Hospitality, Carborundum Universal, Castrol India, Escorts Kubota, Eveready Industries India, Indo Count Industries, Kansai Nerolac Paints, Max Financial Services, Prudent Corporate Advisory Services, Punjab & Sind Bank, The Ramco Cements, RateGain Travel Technologies, Thyrocare Technologies, Triveni Turbine, and Varun Beverages will be in focus ahead of June quarter earnings on August 1.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 August, 2022:

Nifty to trade volatile and is likely to follow global cues.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17200 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17100 level then some decline can be seen in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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US dollar wallows near 3-week low on bets for less aggressive Fed

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The dollar hung near a three-week low to major peers on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the US economy at risk of recession

united states

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar hung near a three-week low to major peers on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the U.S. economy at risk of recession.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts, edged 0.1% lower to 105.89, slipping back toward Friday's low of 105.53, a level not seen since July 5.

Data at the end of last week tossed the greenback in both directions, rising initially after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed the fastest inflation since 2005, only to sink after the final University of Michigan report - closely watched by Fed policymakers - showed slipping consumer inflation expectations.

The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Traders currently price about 31% probability that the Fed will keep its current 75 basis-point pace of rate hikes at its next meeting on Sept. 21, with 69% odds for a smaller half point increase.

"Markets look to be betting the Fed has done the lion's share of its task on inflation and will be receptive to slowing activity data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at NAB in Sydney, wrote in a client note.

The dollar slipped 0.22% to 132.925 yen, heading back toward the six-week low of 132.505 reached on Friday.

The currency pair is extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. long-term Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year hovering around 2.67% after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week.

The euro, however, edged 0.07% lower to $1.0218, continuing its consolidation near the middle of its range over the past week and a half.

Sterling was about flat at $1.2186, after hitting the highest since June 28 at $1.2245 on Friday. Markets are laying 67% odds for a half-point rate hike on Thursday, compared to 33% probability of a quarter-point increase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets policy on Tuesday, and is expected to deliver another half point increase, with traders seeing just a 16% chance of a smaller quarter point tightening.

The Aussie dollar slipped 0.19% to $0.69775 on Monday, but after touching a six-week high of $0.7032 in the previous session.

"Should the market continue to hear what it wants from the Fed, the Aussie can readily spend more time above $0.70," NAB's Nugent said.

"But $0.65-0.70 is still seen containing most of the price action in coming months."

Insignia Ventures raises $516 million, bets on Southeast Asian tech firms

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"We could have raised a much higher amount but we have learned that smaller, tighter funds do better," Insignia's founding managing partner Yinglan Tan said in a statement on Monday.Insignia Ventures raises $516 million, bets on Southeast Asian tech firms

Insignia Ventures Partners has raised $516 million for its latest funds as the Southeast Asia-focused early stage tech venture fund doubles down on the region's digital economy.

"We could have raised a much higher amount but we have learned that smaller, tighter funds do better," Insignia's founding managing partner Yinglan Tan said in a statement on Monday.

The fundraising includes $388 million for Insignia's third fund, $28 million for an entrepreneurs' pool that invests alongside the main fund and an Annex Fund I at $100 million, said the five-year-old firm that has backed more than 70 companies.

Venture capital firms have been ramping up investments in Southeast Asia as rising consumer adoption of digital platforms since the COVID-19 pandemic fuels startups across many sectors.

Insignia said investors for its third fund, which was oversubscribed, included sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and family offices from Asia, Europe and North America.

"We see a once-in-a-decade opportunity to capture outlier returns, as the winners become very obvious when the tide goes out," said Tan, referring to the weak market environment.

Like global peers, Southeast Asian tech firms have seen sharp declines in their share prices from late last year as investors baulk at higher valuations and slowing economies.

Insignia's portfolio companies include Southeast Asian car marketplace Carro, Indonesia's biggest tech firm GoTo, and Indonesian digital investment platform Ajaib.

GST collection rises to Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July, up 28% YoY

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At Rs 1.49 lakh crore, the July GST mop-up is the new second-highest amount collected in a month28% increase in GST collection in July, Rs 1.49 lakh crore in exchequer

India collected Rs 1.49 lakh crore as Goods and Services  Tax (GST) in July, posting an increase of 28 percent from the same month last year, the finance ministry said on August 1.

Compared to the money collected in June, the July GST mop-up was 3 percent higher.

"For five months in a row now, the monthly GST revenues have been more than Rs 1.4 lakh core, showing a steady increase every month," the finance ministry said in a statement.

Of the total GST collections, Central GST was Rs 25,751 crore, while State GST was Rs 32,807 crore. Integrated GST was Rs 79,518 crore and cess was Rs 10,920 crore.

The government settled Rs 32,365 crore to Central GST and Rs 26,774 crore to State GST from Integrated GST. As such, post settlement, the total revenue of the Centre and the States in July was Rs 58,116 crore and Rs 59,581 crore, respectively.

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