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Arvind Stock Research Report

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Text Box: Company Overview:Arvind has a strong focus on Research and Development for process improvement, cost reduction and new product development. This is evident in the fact that Arvind continuously modifies its production process to enhance flexibility on the use of various types and quality of cotton. To further meet customer needs, Arvind has also introduced a new dyeing and processing method for denims.

State-of-the-art technology and equipment have made Arvind one of the leading producers of denim in the world, paving the way for the Company to emerge as a global textile conglomerate. This cutting edge position comes to Arvind courtesy technologies such as Open-end Spinning, Foam Finishing, Mercerizing, Slasher-dyeing, Rope-dyeing, Air-Jet, Projectile and Wet Finishing. It’s only natural that Arvind quality fabrics are in high demand in the markets of Europe, US, West Asia, the Far East and Asia Pacific.

Continued traction in the brand portfolio

* Consolidated revenues rose by 15% yoy to Rs23bn. EBITDA margin was down 250bps yoy at 10.1%. APAT down 16% yoy at Rs756mn

* “Unlimited” and growth brands drove overall Brand and Retail (B&R) growth by 24% yoy to Rs7.6bn. Textile revenues grew 8% yoy to Rs14bn on the back of a robust volume growth in garmenting division. We expect revenue CAGR of 14.6% over FY16-19E

* EBITDA margins were impacted by weaker mix in favour of garmenting (in textiles) and EBO/LFS (in brands), investment in the internet business and advancement of end of season sale (EOSS). We expect EBITDA margin of 11.9/12.3/12.5% in FY17/18/19E.

 

Performance highlights:.

Branded apparel sustains growth trajectory; Margins impacted by one-offs

Arvind’s Q3FY17 revenue growth was in-line with our estimates, while EBITDA margins were impacted due to one-offs. Key highlights: 1) Consolidated revenues at Rs23.3bn were up 15% yoy, with textile revenues increasing 8% yoy and B&R revenues increasing 24% yoy. EBITDA at Rs2.4bn down 8% yoy. EBITDA margins corrected down by 250bps yoy to 10.1%, impacted by higher employee costs, weaker mix, and investment in the internet business. Lower interest burden was offset by lower other income resulting in APAT of Rs756mn, down 16% yoy.

Demonetisation impact wears off; Maintains guidance of 15% growth

Company has maintained its revenue growth guidance of 15% going forward, driven by 25% growth in the B&R division. Growth in textiles is expected to be subdued at c.8%. Operating leverage, localised sourcing and improved performance from “Unlimited”, growth brands and specialty retail are expected to partially offset weaker mix (which will weigh down EBITDA margins). We have built in a 14.6% revenue CAGR over FY16-19E. We expect consolidated EBITDA margins to decline by 70bps in FY17E and to improve by 40/20bps in FY18E/19E.

Financials :

 

Particulars

Dec-16

Sep-16

June-16

Revenue

1463.91

1484.16

1465.85

Other Income

16.75

31.47

23.62

Total Income

1480.66

1515.63

1489.47

Expenditure

-1280.43

-1310.29

-1247.96

Interest

-54.80

-57.40

-70.50

PBDT

145.43

147.94

171.01

Depreciation

-46.46

-45.59

-43.53

PBT

98.97

102.35

127.48

Tax

-27.32

-35.08

-40.03

Net Profit

71.65

67.27

87.45

Equity

258.36

258.36

258.24

EPS

2.78

2.60

3.39

 

Highlights the fact:

1)Company has maintained its revenue growth guidance of 15% going forward, driven by 25% growth in the B&R division.

2)Lower interest burden was offset by lower other income resulting in APAT of Rs756mn, down 16% yoy.

3)The B&R business is well placed with a strong portfolio of brands, and is expected to drive growth.

4)EBITDA margins were impacted by weaker mix in favour of garmenting (in textiles) and EBO/LFS (in brands), investment in the internet business and advancement of end of season sale (EOSS).

5)Consolidated revenues rose by 15% yoy to Rs23bn. EBITDA margin was down 250bps yoy at 10.1%. APAT down 16% yoy at Rs756mn.

6)We expect consolidated EBITDA margins to decline by 70bps in FY17E and to improve by 40/20bps in FY18E/19E.

 

Technically View:

 

The stock is currently trading around 50 days and 100 days, moving average that is all about good positive moov& uptrend signal on daily base. RSI &MFI is present at 48 and 68respectivally, which is uptrend& showing the sideways formation for the short term period. The stock is currently in the upward formation and when it hold above 400 then somemore upside is expecting with major support is found 330 level. MACD line is greaterthen signal line 10 day Avg Volume is very high.

 

 

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

 

While the revenue growth was in-line with our expectation, the impact of demonetisation on the trade channels, advancement of EOSS and investment in the internet business impacted profitability. The B&R business is well placed with a strong portfolio of brands, and is expected to drive growth. Owing to the weak profitability in the quarter and EBITDA mix moving in favour of low margin B&R and Garmenting segments, we have cut our EBITDA by 6%/4%/2% for FY17E/18E/19E respectively and consequently cut our EPS by 12%/8%/4% for FY17E/18E/19E. We maintain ACCUMULATE rating with revised price target of Rs450/share.

 

We retain our Buy recommend in this script with a price target of Rs 450 in the very short term outlook. So Entry would be around 380-370as recomanded in this counter.

WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK FEB 13, 2016 – FEB19, 2016

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Events to watch this week

  • IMF questions Greek debt sustainability
  • Trump promises “big league” tax reform
  • France’s Le Pen calls for return of the franc
  • China’s FX reserves extend drop
  • Brexit bill clears UK House of Commons
  • DOL rule survives court challenge

The Week ahead:

  • Japan reports Q4 preliminary gross domestic product on Monday, 13 February
  • The eurozone reports preliminary Q4 GDP on Tuesday, 14 February
  • The United Kingdom releases consumer price data on Tuesday, 14 February
  • The United States reports retail sales, industrial production and consumer price data on Wednesday, 15 February
  • The UK releases January employment data on Friday 17, February

For the week,Global equities extended gains this week as reflationary hopes were rekindled by talk of US tax cuts. Major US indices all reached record highs late in the week while yields on 10-year US Treasury notes, at 2.43%, changed little. Oil prices were steady too, with West Texas Intermediate crude holding at $54.10 per barrel and global Brent dipping to $56.66 per barrel from $57.10 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 10.9 from 11.15 last week.

NIFTY- 8,793.55
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,608barrel
GOLD-Rs 29,198 gram
Rs/$-Rs 66.88

MARKET ROUND UP

The market rose last week on firm global stocks. Buying ahead of December IIP data due on Friday, 10 February 2017, and optimism about corporate earnings steered the domestic market higher. A positive trend in Asia and Europe also boosted sentiment in the domestic market.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, 8 February 2017, decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains unchanged at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate at 6.75%.

In the week ended Friday, 10 February 2017, the Sensex rose 93.73 points or 0.33% to settle at 28,334.25. The Nifty 50 index rose 52.60 points or 0.60% to settle at 8,793.55.

The BSE Mid-Cap index gained 183 points or 1.38% to settle at 13,468.41. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 179.21 points or 1.34% to settle at 13601.31. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after its sixth bi-monthly monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, 8 February 2017, decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains unchanged at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the bank rate at 6.75%.

Major Action &Announcement:

Dr Reddy's Laboratories was the top Sensex loser last week. The stock fell 5.30% to Rs 2,975.20. The company's consolidated net profit fell 15.95% to Rs 492.30 crore on 5.43% fall in total income to Rs 3763.50 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced on Saturday, 4 February 2017.Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL's) consolidated earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) declined 13.07% to Rs 8793 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. EBITDA margin contracted to 23.7% in Q3 December 2016, from 25.5% in Q3 December 2015.

Cipla fell 4.77% to Rs 579.35. The company's Q3 net profit was boosted by other income on account of gain on sale of investment. Cipla's consolidated net profit rose 43.85% to Rs 374.83 crore on 18.08% rise in total income to Rs 3800.70 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. Cipla had divested its 16.7% stake in Chase Pharmaceutical Corporation to Allergan Plc. The Q3 December 2016 result includes gain on sale of investment of Rs 121 crore. The result was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 8 February 2017.

Lupin fell 1.75% to Rs 1,464.60. The company's consolidated net profit rose 20.69% to Rs 633.11 crore on 26.91% increase in total income to Rs 4586.45 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced during hours on Thursday, 9 February 2017.

Consolidated net sales rose 31.5% to Rs 4404.90 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. US formulation sales increased by 53.4% to $316 million in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. Japan sales increased by 20.3% to Rs 449.20 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015.

Power Grid Corporation of India fell 0.92% to Rs 199.85. The company's net profit rose 20.16% to Rs 1930.02 crore on 23.94% increase in total income to Rs 6787.51 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 9 February 2017.

NTPC fell 0.90% to Rs 170.40. The company's net profit fell 7.49% to Rs 2468.72 crore on 10.84% rise in total income to Rs 19646.09 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015. The result was announced during market hours on Wednesday, 8 February 2017.

Tata Steel fell 0.89% to Rs 467.75. The company reported consolidated net profit of Rs 231.90 crore in Q3 December 2016 as compared with net loss of Rs 2747.72 crore in Q3 December 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 7 February 2017. Total income rose 13.64% to Rs 28143.51 crore in Q3 December 2016 over Q3 December 2015.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,an official gauge of China's factory activity edged lower in January, though it stayed in expansionary territory, official data showed on Wednesday, 1 February 2017. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 51.3 in January from 51.4 in the previous month, pointing to a slight slowing of momentum.UK manufacturing PMI was reported at 55.9 in January 2017 compared with 56.1 in December 2016. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was reported at 55.2 in January 2017, highest since 2011.

Global Economic News:

Greek debt drama rekindled
Once again Greece faces a deadline to receive much-needed bailout funds from its international backers, but so far it has not fulfilled the terms of its prior commitments. With heavy debts coming due in April and July, Greece hopes to strike a deal at the last EU summit before the European election calendar kicks off in March. Finance ministers meet on 20 February, with Greece near the top of their to-do list. There is mounting concern that several European partners will not participate in the bailout any longer if the International Monetary Fund doesn't. The IMF this week called Greece’s debt burden unsustainable and called for debt forgiveness.

Le Pen lays out economic vision
Populist French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen formally kicked off her campaign this week, laying out her economic agenda. Le Pen called for pulling France out of the eurozone, reintroducing the franc and drastically curbing immigration. Le Pen has consistently led the polling in the first round of France’s two-round system but trails a variety of centrist challengers in the second round.

China’s reserves slip
Having peaked in 2015 at over $4 trillion, China’s foreign exchange reserves slipped below $3 trillion in January, according to government data. Beijing has been selling down reserve assets for the past 18 months to try to stem capital outflows from the Chinese mainland.

Commons backs Brexit
The UK House of Commons voted on Wednesday to allow the government to begin negotiations with the European Union. The bill now goes before the House of Lords, which can delay but not halt the triggering of Article 50.

Euro too low for Germany
German finance minister Wolfgang Schaüble this week acknowledged that the euro’s exchange rate with the US dollar is too low for Germany’s competitive condition but said that the European Central Bank must make policy for all of Europe, not just Germany. Tensions were inflamed both inside and outside the eurozone as Germany posted a record annual trade surplus, in excess of €250 billion. US president Donald Trump’s principal trade advisor commented recently that Germany has been manipulating the euro exchange rate in order to gain competitive advantage.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Trump consults with Asian leaders
US president Donald Trump spoke by phone for the first time with Chinese president Xi Jinping and reaffirmed the US commitment to the One China policy. That policy was called into question during the presidential transition, when Trump had direct contact with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, an apparent breach of protocol. Trump urged closer US–China ties in the call, according to the White House.

US earnings rebound
As of 7 February, Thomson Reuters reports that fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 Index are expected to increase 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2015. Of the 300 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported to date for the fourth quarter of 2016, 68% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. The Q4 2016 blended revenue growth estimate is 4.3%. The forward four-quarter (1Q17– 4Q17) P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.4.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):


ADANITRANS

69.65

BANKINDIA

138.70

BEML

1345.75


NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

NOT YET

----


MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

FIRSTSOUCE SOLUTION

21.55

UNITECH

16.11

JUSTDIAL

13.29


MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

UNION BANK

-10.43

NATIONAL ALUMIN

-9.48

INTELLECT DESIGN

-7.51



Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (13 Feb)
Month Bill Auction

Tuesday (14 Feb)
NFIB Small Business

Wednesday (15 Feb)
Retail Sales & MBA Mortgage Applications

Thursday (16 Feb)
Jobless Claims

Friday (17 Feb)
E-Commerece Retail Sales


Fundamental Pick of the week:

Derivative Ideas LIC Housing Finance Ltd For Target Rs.590.00

 

LICHSGFIN added around 1% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. On charts it is holding strong above its long term as well as short term moving averages on daily charts. We suggest doing a covered call as per levels given below.


Recommendation

BUY LICHSGFIN FEB FUTS BETWEEN 557-559 SL 549, TARGET 590.


Indian Market Outlook:

The Nifty traded in a narrow range throughout the day and was unable to close above 8800. However, it did manage to close in the positive territory for the day as well as for the week. On the lower side, the immediate support is at 8770, whereas the resistance is pegged at 8830, ie the trend line joining the recent highs. The overall trend in the short-term remains positive, as the Nifty is still trading above its crucial support levels. The Bank Nifty looks weaker in the short term compared to the Nifty, but if it manages to surpass the swing high of 20407, then it will gain further upward momentum. The momentum indicator KST has gone into a ‘sell’ mode for both the Indices, which is the only concern in the short term.


TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3

S2

S1

NIFTY

R1

R2

R3

8,670

8,718

8,744

8,793.55

8,840

8,890

8,930

 

Conclusion:


we are still holding 8681 suggesting bulls are still having upper hand eventhough we are not able to cross the gann arc, as shown in below chart. Bearish only on close below 8681 and bullish above 8840 in between choppy move continue.  High made today was 8822 and low made was 8771 so we did not break 8840 on Upside and 8681 on downside forming an inside day pattern suggesting choppy move to continue, Bulls should protect 8681 and till its protected move towards 8969 and above is quiet possible. Once the Gann arc as shown below is broken bulls will shown an impulsive move on upside. 

 

Making More Money with Stock Market

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This is tricky; or else one and all would have been rich. This requires a lot of lack of complaint, cleverness, know-how and a lot of preparedness or pro-activeness. So what is that hot products in the stock market? Well, it might be one that has suddenly sprung up in value, just out of nowhere! And it in point of fact takes places. It possibly will be a stock of a exceptionally inconsequential corporation yet the fact remains that might be doing remarkably well. So let us get to know how to go for making more money with stock market.

The Stock Market: what’s in store for you!

A stock market is as well known as an equity market. A stock market is an open market for the trading of company-held stock as well as their derivatives at a consented price. It is a large set of connections of several thousands of money-making transactions. It does not have a physical existence as an entity. Yet the fact remains that at one fell swoop the stocks are listed on an actually accessible unit known as the stock exchange. The mounted up worldwide derivatives bazaar has been retorted to be at about twenty times that number! This is an impenetrable amount because it is roughly 11 times the size of the whole global economy. It is unfeasible to analyze the worth of the derivatives market to a stock or a permanent income security, since it is stated in terms of values derived by concept. This essentially points to an authentic assessment. On top of all this, the huge percentage of derivatives quashes one another which simply connotes that a plagiarist gamble on the possibility of an event occurring or not occurring is pitted against a similar copied stake on the event not actually being non-occurring. Loads of such comparatively non liquid securities are valued as per the specific model in place of an actual price in the share market.

Stock market are always moving

You must have heard that stock markets are never still. Stock markets are always moving – effecting forever changing scenarios. This is the sole reason why the stock market is said to be volatile. It is very difficult or rather impossible to predict the stock market precisely. Sometimes it just booms and along with it the economy raises and at other times, bang, it just collapses. There is no warning for the investors. Whenever there is a boom in the stock market, people like to call it a bull run in the stock market. And when it is falling, people call it a bear run happening in the stock market.

 

 

 

Are you the right kind of person to enter the stock market: Do you have what it takes?

Before you say “Yes”, you will need to do a lot of research. You can transact any time – do not forget this; yet the fact remains that you only transact when you have all the prerequisites. Just like they articulate use up nine hours to grind your axe and one hour to slice the tree, in the same way you are doing great and prudently if you assign the most of your time to investigation more willingly than achievement. Even out the salient businesses. Fill up their stock market accounts. Select businesses that have the most excellent testimony of stock market revenue – there are loads of them everywhere. Have that eye. What’s more, be on the look out for the undeclared stocks. A few of them possibly will not have come under civic observation yet the fact remains that have been doing fairly healthy for themselves in the stock market. Take advantage of such prospects if you happen to encounter a few of these.

Take hold of the opportunity to take calculated risks

You need never be belligerent in the stock market. Being antagonistic may grant you huge gains upon a phase of time, yet the fact remains that all together, they also bring in huge hazards. In view of that have staying power and take calculated risks only. Your earnings might not be somewhat to show off yet the fact remains that it will at least be reliable and you will have that all of the essence accomplishment in the good deal which is not anything except a tranquility of perception.

This was a small session on making more money with stock market.

 

Sensex, Nifty close higher amid consolidation

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks trimmed losses to trade in green in late afternoon session amid positive global cues. Sentiments got some support with report that Indian economy attracted $4.68 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) in November 2016, up 60 per cent over the corresponding period last year of $2.93 billion. During April-November period of the current fiscal, FDI in the country grew to $32.49-billion against $24.81 billion in the same period previous year. However, upside remained capped as the Reserve Bank of India decided to hold the key repo rate at 6.25% for the second time in a row, changing its stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'. The central bank also cut the economic growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for the current fiscal from 7.1 per cent estimated earlier.Meanwhile, continuing its protectionist approach to support the domestic steel industry hit by cheap imports, the government has extended the anti-dumping duty on certain cold-rolled flat steel products from four nations including China and South Korea, by two months.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28329.70, up by 39.78 points or 0.14% after trading in a range of 28152.18 and 28469.48. There were 16 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index, while one stock remained unchanged.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.08%, while Small cap index was up by 0.28%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut up at 8778.40, up by 9.35 points or 0.11% after trading in a range of 8724.10 and 8821.40. There were 26 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Titan

425.15

8.07

JPassociat

13.92

6.67

FSL

45.95

6.61

MCleodrus

170.00

6.18

Losers

 

 

Jubilant

700.00

-6.40

Ramcocem

676.25

-5.36

Adanient

92.10

-5.20

JPassociat

13.08

-4.94

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1397

648

Declines

1190

811

 

Crporate Front: The Reserve Bank's decision not to cut key policy rates is slightly negative for Indian equities and rupee in the near term, says a Nomura report. "The surprising decision not to cut rates is slightly negative for India equities and INR in the near term; however, we maintain our medium-term view of INR outperformance and long INR position in our RV portfolio.


 

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1397: 1190, while 159 scrips remained unchanged.

Macroeconomic front: Government will this week launch a portal for bringing in more transparency and speed up mining-related activities in the country. The Mines Ministry has developed a portal which would facilitate in expediting the clearances associated with the mining blocks and help all stakeholders to track status of statutory clearances, an official statement said.

 

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in green as investors focused on earnings and took a cautious approach amid rising political uncertainty. Asian markets were trading in green although Japanese markets remained under pressure owing to the yen's overnight strength. Back home, in scrip specific development, Maharashtra Seamless traded higher after the company bagged prestigious ONGC order worth Rs 421 crore ($ 61 million) for supply of seamless casings to ONGC against stiff competition from domestic as well as foreign manufactures from China, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Argentina and others.


Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

29362.00

0.11

Silver

42371.00

0.06

Crude oil

3542.00

0.8

Natural Gas

212.70

0.42

Alluminium

123.65

0.37

Copper

394.40

-0.01

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were IT up by 1.47%, TECK up by 1.43%, Realty up by 1.13%, Power up by 0.64% and Consumer Durables up by 0.36%, while Metal down by 0.64%, Bankex down by 0.36%, PSU down by 0.17% and Capital Goods down by 0.15% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were BhartiInfratel up by 3.77%, Tech Mahindra up by 2.30%, AurobindoPharma up by 1.89%, TCS up by 1.87% and Power Grid up by 1.72%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.28%, Tata Steel down by 1.89%, Bank of Baroda down by 1.79%, Cipla down by 1.50% and Indusind Bank down by 1.22% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 0.8 points or 0.04% to 2,065.88, Jakarta Composite increased 6.18 points or 0.12% to 5,367.27, Shanghai Composite increased 16.2 points or 0.51% to 3,183.18, Hang Seng increased 40.01 points or 0.17% to 23,525.14 and Taiwan Weighted increased 46.93 points or 0.49% to 9,590.18. On the flip side, Nikkei 225 decreased 99.93 points or 0.53% to 18,907.67.

All European markets were trading in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 6.35 points or 0.09% to 7,195.17, France’s CAC increased 23.73 points or 0.5% to 4,790.33 and Germany’s DAX increased 56.34 points or 0.49% to 11,599.72.

 

US bond yields rise as expectations of large stimulus & monetary expansion on the cards!!

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Indian Indices: Asian markets traded flat to mildly negative with the Japanese 'Nikkei" again falling prey to the stronger yen which saw a brief one day bounce back. Gold prices rallied on the back of strong ETF buying as money chases defensives ahead of important monetary announcements in the US.


Nifty saw disappointment creep in as RBI maintained 'status quo' on policy rates. This saw Nifty & Bank Nifty correct sharply intraday only to recover all losses by the end of the day.With uneasiness @ 8800 expect another few days for consolidation before any break out takes place as earnings season nears its end. The RBI no change saw bond yields move up while rupee gained ground which would be the silver lining for foreign investors as the Rupee has been an outperformer in the emerging market basket.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28209.97, down by 79.95 points or 0.28% after trading in a range of 28184.21 and 28469.48. There were 8 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.35%, while Small cap index was down by 0.12%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8738.80, down by 30.25 points or 0.34% after trading in a range of 8729.15 and 8821.40. There were 16 stocks advancing against 35 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Justdail

427.40

5.82

SKFindia

1408.25

3.55

Polaris

162.90

2.74

Ajantaphar

1806.35

2.69

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Union bank

154.55

-7.32

RTNPower

7.60

-5.00

Eclerx

1416.45

-3.66

CUB

152.40

-3.64

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1703

639

Declines

673

785

 

Technical view: Nifty held on to 8700 which will act as strong support while 8820 continues to act as stiff resistance. Bank Nifty also held 20000 which now will act as strong support while 20576 continues to be a strong resistance.


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

8725

8840

Nifty

28160

28520

 

Trading ideas: Engineers India (Buy above Rs 159 for target of Rs 167, SL at Rs 155.5): After oscillating in a tight trading range for the past few weeks, Engineers India has finally broken out from a "Pennant" pattern on daily charts. The stock also managed to close above its short term 50-DMA placed at Rs 153.5. It an ideal price-volume breakout with oscillators indicating an upward range shift signalling positive momentum to continue. We advise to Buy Engineers India above Rs 159, stop loss at Rs 155.5 and Target of Rs 167.


Corporate SnippetsThe Government is mulling the merger of about half a dozen state-owned consultancy firms like Engineering Projects (India) Ltd with Engineers India Ltd (EIL) to create a mega consultancy firm that can take on the might of global giants like Bechtel.

Reliance Jiorubbished BhartiAirtel’s statement on providing 35,000 points of interconnect to the company as “malicious” and “misleading”.

Federal BankLimited has partnered with online data and information portal Commodity Online for the distribution of loans against warehouse receipts and collateral management services across the country. 

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were AurobindoPharma up by 1.38%, Power Grid up by 1.12%, HCL Tech up by 1.10%, Hero MotoCorp up by 1.07% and Tech Mahindra up by 0.77%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.99%, Bank of Baroda down by 2.70%, Tata Steel down by 1.99%, ICICI Bank down by 1.77% and BHEL down by 1.70% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 0.70%, IT up by 0.67%, TECK up by 0.52%, Realty up by 0.23% and Oil & Gas up by 0.07%, while Metal down by 1.38%, Bankex down by 0.92%, Capital Goods down by 0.77%, PSU down by 0.51%, Auto down by 0.51% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, barring Nikkei as investors grew more confident about the world’s second-largest economy. Japan’s core machinery orders rebounded more than expected in December from the prior month’s fall and are seen rising again this quarter - an encouraging sign of a pick-up in capital expenditure.

Global Signals: The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 5.91 points or 0.29% to 2,070.99, Shanghai Composite increased 12.58 points or 0.4% to 3,179.56, Jakarta Composite increased 20.1 points or 0.37% to 5,381.19, Taiwan Weighted increased 48.38 points or 0.51% to 9,591.63 and Hang Seng increased 76.74 points or 0.33% to 23,561.87.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 decreased 87.23 points or 0.46% to 18,920.37.Malaysia stock exchange was closed for the day on account of ‘Thaipusam’ holiday.

 

How NRI's can take advantage from Indian stock market

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Each and every NRI is capable of investing in the Indian equities market.Experts suggest that investing in Indian stock market is an exciting prospect as the market will be growing at a steady pace in the years to come in the future. For NRI’s wanting to invest in the stock market there are two option available. One of them is the direct route in which they could opt for investing in buying stocks of various listed companies while the other could be investing in mutual funds. For those people who want to directly buy the stocks, there is an option provided by the Reserve Bank of India called the Portfolio Investment Scheme which is available for non-repatriableand also repatriable basis. For those people who do not have a clear understanding of the stock market, mutual funds could be the best option. Any NRI wanting to invest in the Indian stock market through any of the above mentioned scheme does not require any kind of prior permission from the RBI.For NRI who prefer the direct route of making their investments in India, they can invest up to a limit of 5% of the total paid capital of any of the listed Indian companies. NRIs also have complete approval to invest in the secondary market where transaction of stocks takes place. One more added advantage is that NRI can also apply for Initial Public Offers (IPOs) of any company. The only requirement is that the company offering IPO must comply with the norms of offering shares to NRI’s.

The Initial beginning – For every NRI the first step to invest money in the Indian stock market would be to ensure that all the currency has to be in rupees (INR). Foreign currency is not accepted for investment in mutual funds in our country. So for making such investments every NRI needs to create bank account in any local Indian bank. One of those accounts is an NRE account, which is an account which has the option of sending money back to your country of residence. Foreign currency or Indian currency both can be used to open such an account. Another such account is known as the NRO account which is a non-repatriable type of rupee account. The last kind of account is the FCNR account which almost same as the NRE account. The only difference between the two is thatin FCNR account the money is help in the form of foreign currency.In case of the investment by residents, they have to submit some other documents which includethe PAN card as well as an address proof.

The appointment of PoA – Most of the times for NRI investors it is not possible to keep a track of their investment and conduct transactions according to the market situation. It is not possible because in most scenarios they are away and don’t get the time to react to market fluctuation.

                Mutual funds have a provision of power of attorney (PoA) where the he can take the decisions on his behalf. The only requirement is an original or the signed and verified copy of the PoA to be submitted to the issuing authority. Each and every PoA document should contain signatures the PoA holder as well as the NRI investor which would be verified before conducting any transaction.

Redeeming the earnings – Redemption of the funds is done through payment either in the form of cheques or in the form of cash directly to the bank account of the investor. All the earnings are paid in the form of Indian currency.

Taxation regulations – All the taxes which are payable by any investor who is a NRI are similar to the liabilities of any investor who is an Indian resident. In certain cases the NRIs are also liable to pay double taxes, once in their investing country which is India and once in their country of residence again. But if the Government of India has ascheme of avoidance of double taxation treaty (ADTT) with the country of residence of the NRI, then he won’t have to pay their taxes twice

Ability to buy IPO- All the shares which are issued in the form of initial public offerings (IPOs) don not come under PIS. For issuing IPO,the company which issues the IPO is liable to inform RBI about the quantity of shares which it has provided to any NRI.

Any of the shares which are acquired through the IPOs can be easily sold even without holding a PIS account.But each and every NRI has to provide all their bank details must furnish their bank details, for calculating the tax applicable onall the gains which they have been able to gain.

Dow Jones hits new highs as US$ rallies even as crude oil slumps which drags energy stocks

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Indian Indices: Asian markets will see a positive opening as the Japanese index gains with the yen weakening after 4 days of gains. The US$ rallied from oversold territory which saw stocks bounce back even as crude prices tumbled most in the last 3 months. This saw energy stocks drag the index lower from new highs even as financials outperformed.


Nifty saw volatility creep in ahead of the Central bank meeting today on interest rates. With consensus 25 basis point rate cut being priced in more emphasis will be on the policy outlook going forward with a 'dovish' stance being seen by most. Earnings beat by Bhel& Tata Steel should see more action on stocks as Nifty may remain range bound.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28341.70, up by 6.54 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 28305.91 and 28391.64. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.45%, while Small cap index was up by 0.33%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8779.25, up by 10.95 points or 0.12% after trading in a range of 8765.85 and 8782.85. There were 35 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index.

 

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Titan

424.10

7.80

JPASSOCIT

13.59

4.14

FSL

44.80

3.94

BFUTILITIE

409.50

3.88

Group ATopLosers

 

 

GMDCLTD

115.80

-3.50

Natcophar

758.55

-3.45

UBL

796.45

-2.58

Amtekauto

37.80

-2.45

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1703

918

Declines

673

555

 

Technical view: Nifty will see support around 8700 while 8800 will act as resistance, break either side will see further up or down side. Bank Nifty will face resistance around 20576 while 20000 will act as support.


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

8735

8840

Nifty

28220

28595

 

Trading ideas: IBULHSGFIN (Buy above Rs 830 for target of Rs 865, SL at Rs 814): Stock has broken out from a cup and handle pattern on daily charts recently and has carried forward the momentum swiftly. The strong move has been accompanied with a solid rise in traded volumes. Other momentum oscillators also indicate the current momentum is here to stay. Our analysis of weekly chart also suggests, the stock is trending up in a rising channel which further accentuates our positive bias on the stock.


Corporate Snippets:

In a major blow to liquor baron Vijay Mallya, the Karnataka High Court ordered winding of the United Breweries (Holdings) Limited, the parent company of UB Group for recovering dues payable by UBHL-promoted Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL)has commissioned the Mandali-Becharaji pipeline to supply natural gas for manufacturing in the North Gujarat plants of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) and Honda Motors Scooters India (HMSI).

Addressing the need of pacing up constructions with skilled labour that would result in quicker delivery and hand overs, PNB Housing Finance Limited (PNBHFL) has signed an MOU with CREDAI West Bengal to train 1000 construction workers in Kolkata and nearby villages.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Ambuja Cement up by 2.66%, ACC up by 2.32%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.09%, Hindalco up by 1.96% and Grasim Industries up by 1.78%.  On the flip side, Axis Bank down by 2.00%, ITC down by 1.23%, Dr. Reddy’s Lab down by 0.75%, Infosys down by 0.67% and Hindustan Unilever down by 0.64% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 3.13%, Auto up by 0.79%, Realty up by 0.78%, Metal up by 0.67% and Oil & Gas up by 0.49%, while FMCG down by 0.55% and Bankex down by 0.15% were the losing indices on BSE.

 

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, with pressure on oil prices hitting energy shares. A summary of opinions from January 30-31 meeting showed that Bank of Japan board members saw improvements in exports, consumer spending and capital expenditure but warned that it may take time for inflation expectations to pick up.

 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Jakarta Composite decreased 31.47 points or 0.58% to 5,350.01, KOSPI Index decreased 15.75 points or 0.76% to 2,059.46, Hang Seng decreased 10.9 points or 0.05% to 23,320.67, Shanghai Composite decreased 8.47 points or 0.27% to 3,144.62 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.16 points or 0.07% to 1,687.68.On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted increased 0.03 points or 0% to 9,554.59 and Nikkei 225 increased 46.13 points or 0.24% to 18,956.91.

 

Sensex falls, Nifty holds 8750 ahead of RBI policy

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks continued to trade sluggish in late afternoon session as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy meeting due tomorrow. The RBI is expected to conduct its sixth and final bi-monthly monetary policy review of the current fiscal on February 7-8, 2017. Profit booking coupled with mixed global cues and a weak rupee, pulled the markets lower. Sentiments also remained downbeat with Commerce Minister NirmalaSitharaman’s statement that the proposed changes in the regime for issuing H-1B visas for skilled workers by the US government will have an impact on Indian companies and the Commerce Ministry will soon hold a meeting with the industry to discuss its strategy for dealing with it.Further, agency noted that under the new guidelines, three of the 21 state-run banks-- Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and United Bank of India will have positive reserves, who had negative distributable reserves under the earlier guidelines. Further it said that banks are required to appropriate 25% of their annual net profits towards statutory reserve.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 28364.83, down by 104.12 points or 0.37% after trading in a range of 28334.61 and 28483.41. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading mixed; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.02%, while Small cap index was up by 0.21%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut down at 8768.30, down by 32.75 points or 0.37% after trading in a range of 8770.10 and 8809.30. There were 16 stocks advancing against 35 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Top Movers (Group A)

 

 

Company

Cmp

% chg

Gainers

 

 

Unitech

6.69

16.15

Amtekauto

38.70

11.05

FSL

43.35

9.61

Trent

260.00

6.30

Losers

 

 

Jubilant

700.00

-6.40

Ramcocem

676.25

-5.36

Adanient

92.10

-5.20

JPassociat

13.08

-4.94

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1397

648

Declines

1190

811

 

Crporate Front: Mutual fund industry's asset base rose to all-time high of Rs 17.37 lakh crore at the end of January primarily on account of strong inflows in equity, income and money market segments, reported PTI.

 

Market Sentiment:

The market breadth on BSE was positive in the ratio of 1397: 1190, while 159 scrips remained unchanged.

Macroeconomic front:

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has entered into four unilateral Advance Pricing Agreements (APAs) pertaining to the manufacturing, financial and information technology sectors. Four APAs were signed on Monday. The international transactions covered in these agreements include contract manufacturing, IT-enabled services and software development services," the Finance Ministry said in a statement here.

 

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading mostly in green with some encouraging company updates and gains in healthcare stocks helping to counter weakness in oil majors and eurozone banks. However, Asian markets were trading in red as economic and political uncertainty gripped global markets.


Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):

Commodity

Rs

% Chang

Gold

29248.00

0.19

Silver

42254.00

-0.08

Crude oil

3571.00

-0.22

Natural Gas

209.20

1.6

Alluminium

122.50

-0.45

Copper

391.80

-0.38

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 0.54%, Capital Goods up by 0.51%, Power up by 0.50%, Bankex up by 0.14% and PSU up by 0.10%, while Metal down by 0.96%, Auto down by 0.84%, TECK down by 0.24%, IT down by 0.24% and Oil & Gas down by 0.15% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 2.05%, BPCL up by 1.85%, BHEL up by 1.63%, Bank of Baroda up by 1.38% and BhartiInfratel up by 1.30%. On the flip side, Tata Motors - DVR down by 3.04%, Coal India down by 3.03%, Tata Motors down by 2.58%, ONGC down by 1.88% and Hindalco down by 1.58% were the top losers.

 

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Nikkei 225 decreased 65.93 points or 0.35% to 18,910.78, Hang Seng decreased 16.67 points or 0.07% to 23,331.57, Jakarta Composite decreased 12.33 points or 0.23% to 5,383.67, Shanghai Composite decreased 3.9 points or 0.12% to 3,153.09, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 2.47 points or 0.15% to 1,688.77 and KOSPI Index decreased 2.45 points or 0.12% to 2,075.21. On the flip side, Taiwan Weighted increased 16.55 points or 0.17% to 9,554.56.

European markets were trading mostly in green; Germany’s DAX increased 11.25 points or 0.1% to 11,521.09 and UK’s FTSE 100 increased 15.92 points or 0.22% to 7,188.07. On the flip side, France’s CAC decreased 1.48 points or 0.03% to 4,776.60.

 

 

US stocks see profit booking as US$ falls with bond yields while Gold sees safe haven buying!!

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Indian Indices: Asian markets opened mildly in the red as weakness in European markets & profit booking in the US indices saw money being taken off the table. The Japanese 'Nikkei" was the big loser as the US$ fell which saw the Yen hit near 3 month highs. Gold prices rallied to near term highs as safe haven buying emerged with equities seeing profit booking.


Nifty closed @ 5 month highs as it closed above 8800.The RBI policy on Wednesday will see near term volatility till the event, however the trend continues to be 'buy the fall' as any weakness is seeing buying. With mutual fund inflows the strongest ever in the last 5 years expect retail participation to continue to drive indices higher albeit at a slower pace as nearness to 8900 will see caution prevail.


The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 28391.21, down by 48.07 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 28361.97 and 28483.41. There were 14 stocks advancing against 16 stocks declining on the index.The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.28%, while Small cap index was up by 0.45%.The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 8784.75, down by 16.30 points or 0.19% after trading in a range of 8773.55 and 8809.30. There were 21 stocks advancing against 30 stocks declining on the index.

 

MARKET INDICATORS

·           

 

Group ATopGainers

 

 

Company

Price (Rs)

% chg

Corpbank

54.20

10.95

ICRA

4379.85

7.0

Unitech

6.27

8.85

Trent

259.35

6.03

Group ATopLosers

 

 

Redington

103.10

-3.28

Muthootfin

342.00

-2.91

HDIL

68.60

-2.63

SREinfra

95.25

-2.56

Market Statistics

 

 

 

BSE

NSE

Advances

1703

770

Declines

673

693

 

Technical view: Nifty will find resistance around 8840 which is almost 80% of the retracement of the entire fall, while 8740 will act as support. Bank Nifty however is in blue sky territory with 20576 being the last resistance on the upside while 20200 acts as strong support.


INDEX PERFORMANCE

 

 

Indices

Support

Resistanes

Sensex

8775

8840

Nifty

28357

28569

 

Trading ideas :RCF (Buy above Rs 62 for target of Rs 68, SL at Rs 59): Stock has broken out from a bullish flag pattern on daily charts continuing its prior uptrend. Our analysis of weekly charts indicate, RCF has also broken out from a triple bottom pattern in first week of Jan 2016. We expect the current momentum to be carried forward as other momentum oscillators are also indicating strength in the current upmove. We advise to Buy RCF above Rs 62, stop loss at Rs 59 and Target of Rs 68.


Corporate SnippetsONGC’s decision to invest USD11.5bn in Andhra Pradesh, at a time when gas prices in India are falling, may put its cash flow under pressure.

NTPChas decided to shut down old polluting power plants of capacity totalling roughly 11GW and replace those with new ones which are highly efficient.

CESChas bagged the power distribution franchisee for Bikaner city in Rajasthan. It plans to invest Rs1.35bn in the network in three years and hopes to clock a turnover of around Rs4bn.

Nifty Movers:  The top gainers on Nifty were BHEL up by 2.74%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.59%, BPCL up by 1.45%, Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.11% and GAIL India up by 0.98%. On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 2.06%, Tata Motors - DVR down by 1.91%, Zee Entertainment down by 1.56%, ACC down by 1.49% and Bajaj Auto down by 1.41% were the top losers.The top gainers on Nifty were BHEL up by 2.74%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.59%, BPCL up by 1.45%, Kotak Mahindra Bank up by 1.11% and GAIL India up by 0.98%.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were PSU up by 0.57%, Oil & Gas up by 0.56%, Consumer Durables up by 0.55%, Metal up by 0.53% and Capital Goods up by 0.35%, while Auto down by 0.91%, IT down by 0.16%, TECK down by 0.15% and Bankex down by 0.10% were the losers on BSE.The top gainers on the Sensex were Sun Pharma up by 1.12%, ITC up by 0.85%, GAIL India up by 0.82%, Tata Steel up by 0.65% and Cipla up by 0.60%.

 

 

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, as global cues dampened sentiments with economic and political fears sent investors seeking shelter in the yen. China is expected to report on Tuesday that foreign exchange reserves fell for the seventh straight month in January but at a much slower pace as authorities’ tightened controls on capital outflows and the surging US dollar lost some steam.

 

Global Signals: The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 12.39 points or 0.05% to 23,335.85, Nikkei 225 decreased 12.1 points or 0.06% to 18,964.61, Shanghai Composite decreased 10.35 points or 0.33% to 3,146.63, Jakarta Composite decreased 9.05 points or 0.17% to 5,386.95, KOSPI Index decreased 3.44 points or 0.17% to 2,074.22 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 2.93 points or 0.17% to 1,688.31. On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted increased 9.4 points or 0.1% to 9,547.41.

 

Sensex, Nifty end at 5 month high AmjujaPharma up

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Company Overview:

 

Idea Cellular is an Aditya Birla Group Company, India's first truly multinational corporation. Idea is a pan-India integrated GSM operator offering 2G and 3G services, and has its own NLD and ILD operations, and ISP license. Idea has won spectrum to launch 4G services across 10 key markets and has initiated multiple steps towards introduction of 4G LTE services on 1800 MHz, in a phased manner from calendar year 2016 onwards.With revenue in excess of $5 billion; revenue market share of nearly 18.2% (as on Q4FY15); and subscriber base of over 165 million, Idea is one of the top 3 mobile operators. Idea is the sixth largest mobile operator in the world, based on number of subscribers in single country operations (GSMA Intelligence). Idea carries a traffic of over 2 billion minutes a day.

Idea has a deep rooted network across the length and breadth of the country comprising of over 1,49,196 cell sites covering 7,513 towns and 3,63,580 villages as on Q1FY16.

Investment Rationale:

Vodafone-Idea merger Telecom behemoth in the making:

Vodafone and Idea Cellular issued a press release on 30 January 2017 highlighting that they are in a preliminary discussion to explore merger opportunities. This deal is likely to have large-scale ramifications in the telecom industry, as the merged company may emerge as a leader with ~42% revenue market share and a strong broadband network. It would also help reduce their annual capex by ~20-25% and improve EBITDA margin by ~500bp. Assuming both Vodafone and Idea have an equal stake, the combined entity should be valued at ~7x EV/EBITDA, reducing leverage by 10-15%, albeit with a low posttaxRoCE of 5%. We believe Idea’s stock is not a play on valuation, but on the likely improvement in its market standing post the merger, which should address the key concern around its earnings visibility.

 

Performance highlights:.

Challenges: Spectrum and revenue caps remain the key hurdles :In our view, the deal could face two key challenges: India’s telecom M&A rules do not allow revenue and subscriber market shares above 50%. Similarly, spectrum holding in each band is not allowed above 50%. The merger company’s revenue/subscriber caps and spectrum caps may get triggered in 7 and 6 circles, respectively. However, the merged company’s revenue/subscriber share is more than 60% in only one circle – Kerala. In the rest of the circles, it is between 50% and 60%. This may get resolved once RJio starts charging subscribers and taking revenue market share.Based on the current 50% band-wise spectrum cap, the merged company has ~33 MHz of excess spectrum, of which ~15 MHz is 900 MHz paired spectrum. Based on latest spectrum valuation (pro-rata for the remaining license term), the merged company may be able to generate over INR75b from the excess spectrum. This should support the merged company’s cash outflow toward liberalizing the administered spectrum, which is ~20% of the merged company’s spectrum.

How would the combined entity look :The merged company should have revenue of INR745b (1HFY17 annualized), assuming 20% lower revenue due to the weak outlook and revenue market share shrinkage. We expect the merged company to garner healthy EBITDA margin of 35%, at ~500bp discount to Bharti India wireless’ FY17E EBITDA margin. This implies about 500bp margin improvement, which could potentially come from network synergies, employee costs and SG&A.Improving combined EBITDA could improve Idea’s leverage, albeit by a moderate 10-15%. Current net debt to EBITDA of 5x could reduce to ~4x. This would still remain high for the merged company.Assuming about 20% synergy on total assets as well as EBITDA synergies, the merged company’s post-tax RoCE could improve to 5%, from 3-4% for Idea and Vodafone.

Financials :

 

Particulars

2016

2015

2014

Revenue

35816.55

31279.47

26179.47

Other Income

183.44

452.34

---

Total Income

35999.99

31731.81

26179.47

Expenditure

-23992.29

-21606.06

-18856.16

Interest

-1797.96

-931.66

-624.79

PBDT

10209.74

9194.09

6698.52

Depreciation

-6199.50

-4855.01

-4093.24

PBT

4010.24

4339.08

2605.28

Tax

-1393.58

-1529.24

-915.97

Net Profit

2616.66

2809.84

1689.31

 

Highlights the fact:

* Vodafone and Idea currently are the second and third largest telecom operators, respectively, in the Indian telecom industry. We thus believe that the merged entity could emerge as an industry leader, with combined revenue and subscriber market share of 42% and 36%, respectively, and blended ARPU of INR178.

* Bharti and RJio currently hold the highest spectrum (20% of market) and cell sites. They are also the most aggressive players in the industry, given their deep network and low capacity utilization. However, the merged company could pose a major challenge with combined spectrum share of ~23% and broadband cell sites of over 1,60,000 (close to Bharti’s 1,70,000 sites and ~40,000 lesser for RJio).

* Post-merger, the three strong operators –  the merged company, Bharti and RJio – could be equipped with equal armory to compete in the market. This scenario could support our expectation of an improving competitive landscape and industry ARPU accretion in 2HFY18.

the merger should impact bharti infratel’s tenancies

 

We expactBhartiInfratel to grow tenancies and rental revenues at 7% and 9%, respectively, over FY16-19E. We believe if this deal goes through, it will impact BhartiInratel’s tenancies given that 85% of the tenancies are derived from the top three operators. As the merged company may pair down unwanted network overlaps between the two entiies, we suspect a one time 10% tenancy reduction. Also as the merged company may have higher geographical coverage, we expect ti to offer potentially 30-40% reduction in annual tenancy.

 

 

VALUATION & OUTLOOK:

 

Assuming Vodafone is an equal shareholder, the combined entity should be valued at about 7x EV/EBITDA, factoring in 500bp EBITDA margin improvement. Vodafone should fetch EV of INR917b and equity value of INR360b.

We have not changed our estimates for Idea on the back of limited clarity on the deal. We put the stock under review until we gather more clarity on the likelihood of the deal and the potential impact of the same on valuations and earnings. We believe Idea is no more a play on valuation at potentially ~7x EV/EBITDA for the merged company. If the deal goes through, the merged company’s wherewithal to stand in the highly competitive market will be a key monitorable. Given the merged company’s superior spectrum/network position, higher revenue market share and ~20-25% lower capex requirement, the high FCF could be used to strengthen its market position.

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