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Economic Survey 2022: Measures to cool global inflation to affect capital flows, pressure exchange rate

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India will need to be wary of imported inflation, especially from elevated energy prices, and likely withdrawal of liquidity by major central banks, the survey warns

Economic Survey 2022: Measures To Cool Global Inflation To Affect Capital  Flows, Pressure Exchange Rate

The impact of surging inflation, particularly in the US where it has risen to its highest since 1982, is hard to miss as one reads through the Economic Survey 2021-22.

The annual economic report card authored by principal economic adviser Sanjeev Sanyal and his team of advisers has warned that India will need to be wary of imported inflation, especially from elevated global energy prices.

The likely withdrawal of liquidity by major central banks over the next year may also make global capital flows more volatile, the authors wrote.

“Inflation has reappeared as a global issue in both advanced and emerging economies. The surge in energy prices, non-food commodities, input prices, disruption of global supply chains, and rising freight costs stoked global inflation during the year,” the survey said.

The survey, however, refrained from providing an estimate of where the consumer price index or the wholesale price index could settle even as it has forecast GDP growth at 9.2 percent in real terms in the current fiscal and 8-8.5 percent in the next.

The survey, which was tabled in the Lok Sabha on the eve of the Budget, has assumed that oil prices will average $70-75 a barrel in the new fiscal year.

The widely followed consumer price index (CPI) moderated as food prices cooled but the wholesale price index, which represents the prices that producers face, continues to be in double-digits.

The survey said the CPI inflation moderated to 5.2 percent in 2021-22 (April-December) from 6.6 percent in the corresponding period of 2020-21.

Also Read: Economic Survey 2022 pegs FY23 GDP growth at 8-8.5 percent

For the moment, the CPI index stays within the tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India. The CPI index for December 2021 provisionally printed a 5.6 percent rise from a year ago.

“Although the high WPI inflation is partly due to base effects that will even out, India does need to be wary of imported inflation, especially from elevated global energy prices,” the survey said, taking note of the cut in the excise duties on petrol and diesel by the Centre and value-added tax by states.

Also read: Economic Survey 2022: Resilience of India's exports to drive growth revival in 2022-23

Growth warning

This rise in inflation was bound to lead to an unwinding of pandemic-led stimulus, which would affect capital flows, put pressure on the exchange rate and slow down growth in emerging economies, it cautioned.

“The revival in inflation across the world now poses risks from both a tighter global liquidity condition and exchange rate volatility in global currency,” it said.

The impending scaling back of the stimulus had reignited fears of taper tantrums but India may not have to worry too much on this count, the survey said.

“India’s external sector—well supported by strong exports, capital inflows, low CAD and external financing requirements and high foreign exchange reserves, with various external vulnerability indicators well within manageable limits—is far better prepared this time to face any external shocks arising out of tightening of the monetary policy stance by the advanced economies in coming months,” the authors said.

Megha Engineering arm Drillmec to set up $200-million oil rigs hub in Telangana

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Meil's Italian arm says the global hub will have a manufacturing facility for oil rigs and ancillary equipment, an R&D centre, and a centre of excellenceMegha Engineering Arm Drillmec To Set Up $200-million Oil Rigs Hub In  Telangana

Global oil and gas rigs firm Drillmec SpA, the Italian arm of Megha Engineering & Infrastructures Ltd (Meil), is setting up a manufacturing hub at a cost of $200 million (approximately Rs 1,500 crore) in the outskirts of Hyderabad.

Drillmec SpA has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Telangana government on Monday morning in the presence of its chief executive officer Simone Trevisani, Telangana Industries Minister K Taraka Rama Rao and Industries Secretary Jayesh Ranjan.

The Meil arm said the global hub will include a manufacturing facility for oil rigs and ancillary equipment, a research and development centre, and a centre of excellence to impart training in cutting-edge technology.

Drillmec SpA, which had developed many innovative designs and acquired several patents globally, is primarily into design, manufacturing and supply of drilling and workover rigs for onshore and offshore applications, apart from a wide range of spare parts for drilling equipment.

The Telangana government’s industries and commerce department and Drillmec SpA have agreed to float a special purpose vehicle for setting up an equipment manufacturing unit, which could offer employment opportunities for around 2,500 people.

Hyderabad-headquartered multi-disciplinary conglomerate Meil, with Rs 18,770 crore revenues posted in the fiscal to March 2021 with an order book of over Rs 1.28 lakh crore by June 2021, has interests in defence, hydrocarbons, power, aviation, EV buses, irrigation and drinking water.

Drillmec SpA and Petraven SpA were the two Italian entities belonging to Trevi Group into the manufacture, design and operation of oil and gas rigs that Meil had acquired in 2020 for around Rs 720 crore.

These Italian acquisitions were aimed at an entry to foreign markets that also provides backward integration in the oil and gas projects worth around Rs 6,000 crore that the Hyderabad-based conglomerate secured from the Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) in 2019 for oilfields in Assam, Gujarat, Tripura and Tamil Nadu.

While Meil had secured a contract from ONGC to supply 47 rigs in all worth Rs 6,000 crore, Drillmec SpA had to date designed, manufactured and supplied nearly 600 oil and gas drilling rigs globally.

Meil had in April last year unveiled India’s first indigenously developed hydraulic rigs for the oil and gas sector where the advanced hydraulic technology helps in drilling oil wells to a depth of up to 6 kilometres from the surface. These rigs with a capacity of 1,500 horsepower were deployed at the Kalol oilfield near Ahmedabad for ONGC.

The company views that the indigenous development and manufacturing of drilling rigs would help India increase domestic oil production and reduce the oil import burden, thereby helping the domestic economy.

Drillmec SpA claims that its land-based drilling rigs are designed to work in harsh climatic conditions and environments and are capable of handling the most challenging client drilling programmes.

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Budget 2022 | FIIs, Retail investors in a tug-of-war over D-Street’s fate

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There is extreme positioning in the market heading into the Budget. FII is aggressively shorting but retail and HNI have build-up large long positions on the index (Nifty 50)Budget 2022: Tech Industry Seeks Relaxation in Tax Norms, Measures to Ease  Liquidity Flow

Foreign investors are heading into the Union Budget presentation on February 1 with considerable pessimism.

While the pessimism of foreign portfolio investors may not be entirely linked to the outcome of the Budget, it will have a considerable impact on how the market may behave on the day of the announcement and for the rest of February.

“There is extreme positioning in the market heading into the Budget. FII is aggressively shorting but retail and HNI have build-up large long positions on the index (Nifty 50),” said Bhavin Mehta, vice president at Dolat Capital Markets.

The long-short ratio, an indicator of sentiment among foreign investors in the equity derivatives segment, collapsed to 0.49 at the beginning of the February derivative series from nearly 2 at the beginning of the January series, data collated by Moneycontrol showed.

Foreign investors are starting the new derivative series with net shorts of 43,506 contracts on the Nifty 50 February futures reflecting their considerable pessimism for the Indian equity market in February. The driving force behind the negativity is the fear of considerable hikes in interest rates in the US and a possible contraction in the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet later in the year.

On January 26, the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the media that the US labor market was strong enough to withstand rate hikes while he also suggested that the tightening cycle this time around will be different from those seen in the past.

Brokerage firm Nomura now expects the US central bank to raise interest rates five times in the calendar year starting with a 50 basis points hike at the March monetary policy meeting. “Powell’s comments suggest the FOMC is beginning to coalesce around a more front-loaded policy rate response to elevated inflation, wages, and inflation expectations,” the brokerage firm said in a note on January 27.

The pessimism of FPIs is also visible in their position in the options contracts of the Nifty 50 index. FPIs increased their long positions in the put options of the Nifty 50 by 82,681 contracts while they enhanced their short positions in call options of the index by 72,219 contracts.

A put option gives the buyer an option, not an obligation, to sell a security at a pre-determined price and time. A call option gives the buyer an option, not an obligation, to buy a security at a pre-determined price and time.

Taking a contrarian stance to foreign investors, retail clients are heading into the Union Budget with net long positions on the Nifty 50’s February futures of 68,592 contracts, which is considerably higher than the net long bets of 5,336 contracts at the beginning of January futures and options series.

A post-Budget short squeeze in the offing?

Market participants are fairly confident that the Union Budget will not throw any curveballs towards investors and will stick with the expected narrative of growth push and fiscal prudence.

“We believe the government will focus on gradual fiscal consolidation while pushing public capex, creating a conducive environment for private capex, and raising resources via strategic divestments,” said brokerage firm Morgan Stanley.

The considerable quantum of short positions by foreign investors on the Nifty 50 futures contract for February makes them vulnerable to a brutal short squeeze if there are positive surprises in the Union Budget.

A short squeeze is a scenario wherein the price of a security moves sharply higher forcing participants who bet on its fall to hurriedly cover their losses, which in turn shoots the price even higher.

Derivative analysts are, however, skeptical of any short squeeze and do not expect the Budget to have much say in the direction of the market going ahead. “The way they are shorting the market, clearly FPIs are not at all looking at the Budget but beyond it. The extent of selling from them is making me cautious,” Mehta said.

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NeoCov virus found in bats: Are humans at risk? WHO responds

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Chinese researchers, in a study that is yet to be peer-reviewed, have said that NeoCov could pose a danger to humans if it mutates further.

NeoCov Virus Found In Bats: Are Humans At Risk? WHO Responds

NeoCov has been found to be closely related to the virus that caused the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). (Representational image)

Chinese researchers, in a study that is yet to be peer-reviewed, have said that a NeoCov, a type of coronavirus detected in bats in South Africa, could pose a danger to humans if it mutates further.

The study, available on preprint repository BioRxiv, has found that NeoCov resembles the virus that caused the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).

The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that further studies are need to ascertain whether the NeoCov will pose a risk to humans, Russia’s TASS news agency reported.

WHO added that it works closely with other agencies like the World Organization for Animal Health to respond to the dangers of “emerging zoonotic viruses”, according to TASS.

Meanwhile, in India, health experts say that there is no new risk of NeoCov jumping from animals to humans.

“The chances of it jumping I would say is 0.001, which statistically means unlikely,” Dr Jayprakash Muliyil, chairperson of the National Institute of Epidemiology’s Scientific Advisory Committee told The Indian Express. “We live with so many pathogens; there is no need to worry about it. It is good for those who want to scare people.”

Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology Director Anurag Agrawal told the newspaper that it is important to continue monitoring pathogens.

“Good to be aware but nothing to worry about, contrary to floating headlines,” he added.

Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of Maharashtra’s COVID-19 task force, tweeted: “NeoCov is an old virus closely related to MERS Cov which enter cells via DPP4 receptors. What's new? NeoCov can use ace2 receptors of bats but they can't use human ace2 receptor unless a new mutation occurs. Everything else is hype.”

Share Market Closing Note

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Sensex, Nifty end flat, wipe out all gains in sharp sell-off dragged by bank, auto stocks

Stock Market at Close: Among the sectors, the auto and banking indices are under pressure while the midcap and smallcap indices are trading in the green.


Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if holds above 17100 on closing basis then expect some further upmove in coming sessions and close below above mentioned level will result in some sluggish movement. Avoid open positions for Monday. Budget will be announced on Tuesday so expect wild moves in market. Stay with nil overnight position.


Topic :- Time:2.50 PM

Mid Market Wrap Up:

1. Air India seeks to settle a $1.2 bn lawsuit in US citing new owner

2. India, Philippines sign $375 million missile deal

3. $200 billion or 200 million: Nirmala Sitharaman faces an unpleasant choice on Tuesday

4. Kotak Bank Q3 profit rises 15% YoY to Rs 2,131 cr


Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 6527.If it manages to hold above 6505 level then expect it to rise till 6580-6605 levels and once it breaks and trade below 6505 level then some decline can follow in it.


Topic :- Time:2.15 PM

Just In:

SBI gets all approvals to set up Bad Bank: Chairman


Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Profit booking is gripping market now. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 17200 level then expect some further decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17240 level then some upmove can follow in the market.


Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

NATURALGAS Trading View:

NG is trading at 328.90.If it holds above 327 level then expect it to rise till 334-335 levels quite soon. Buy on decline till it holds above 327 is recommended in it.


Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

Nifty is rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17340 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 17300 level then some decline can be seen in the market.


Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 751.90.If it breaks and trade below 750 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 752.60 level then some upmove can follow in it.


Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

After gap up opening nifty is still trading on positive note. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17460 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17320 level then some decline can follow in the market.


Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

Begins for 28 Jan,2022:

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex up 600 points, Nifty above 17,300; MidCap index gains 2.5%

2. Google to invest $1 bn in Bharti Airtel, buy 1.28% stake for $700 mn

3. Maharaja set for take-off: Tatas get control of Air India, after 7 decades

4. Payout to be Rs 4k cr to return up to Rs 5 lakh to PMC depositors: Centrum

5. ONGC soars to a 32-month high, up 5% on improved outlook

6. Piramal Group planning to move Supreme Court against NCLAT order on DHFL

7. China halts several IPO plans as it investigates underwriter, law firm

8. MapmyIndia slips 11%, hits record low post December quarter results


Topic :- Time:12.45 PM

Just In:

Boat owner seeks SEBI approval for Rs 2,000-crore IPO.


Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 752.30.If it breaks and trade below 752.00 level then expect some quick decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 753.40 level then some upmove can follow in it.


Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Just In:







Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is highly volatile. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 16880 level then expect quick decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 16920 level then some pull back can follow in the market.


Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex down 1000 pts, Nifty near 17K; HDFC Bank, Infosys slip 2%

2. Investors poorer by Rs 4 trillion

3. Future Enterprises agrees to sell 25% stake in insurance JV to Generali

4.  India reports 286,384 new Covid-19 cases, 573 deaths in a day

5. Shriram Transport Finance sees vehicle financing on recovery road in FY23

6.  L&T Finance Holdings looks to hike retail share to 80% by FY26

7. Tata Sons board to meet on Thursday for debt-laden Air India takeover

8. LIC exits Air India debt at a profit, sells back entire Rs 3,800 cr holding


Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After gap down opening nifty is still trading in red zone. Nifty spot it breaks and trade below 16980 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17000 level then some upmove can follow in the market.

Please note: 

Big event of FED is already over. Market has already discounted the hawkish tone of Fed. Market is likely to remain volatile however outlook remains positive on market and Union Budget 2022. Every dip should be used as an opportunity to go long in the market.


Topic :- Time:10.30 AM

Fall just before budget is not new for Indian Indices. Have a look at this:

Pre Budget Fall in NIFTY-

Year 2020: 12450 to 11600

Year 2021: 14750 to 13600

Year 2022: 18350 to 16980 (Currently)

And every time Nifty made Fresh High after budget.

Lets see this time too


Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 27 Jan,2022:

More recover expected in the market today. Global cues to dictate trend. 

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain  above 17300 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 17220 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.


India's gold demand skyrockets to 797.3 tons in 2021: WGC

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WGC in its Gold Demand Trends 2021 Report said India’s total gold demand jumped to 797.3 tonnes in 2021, registering a massive 78.6 per cent jump from 446.4 tonnes during 2020.India's Gold Demand Skyrockets To 797.3 Tons In 2021: WGC

India’s gold consumption surged to 797.3 tonnes in 2021, on the back of recovery in consumer sentiments and pent-up demand post COVID-19-related disruptions and the bullish trend is set to continue this year as well, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

WGC in its Gold Demand Trends 2021 Report said India’s total gold demand jumped to 797.3 tonnes in 2021, registering a massive 78.6 per cent jump from 446.4 tonnes during 2020.

"The year 2021 revalidated the strength of conventional wisdom about gold and holds several lessons in revival that will shape policy thinking for years to come," WGC Regional CEO, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI.

Somasundaram further said "India’s gold demand recovered by 79 per cent to 797.3 tonnes chiefly a result of an exceptional fourth quarter demand of 343 tonnes that surpassed even our most optimistic expectation articulated in the third quarter and turned out to be the best quarter in our recorded data series".

Going forward, he said, this year COVID-19 and its future variants will remain a factor to watch as will price movements in gold, given global concerns on inflation, interest rate and geo-political developments.

"The spurt in demand that is, in part, a result of pent-up demand in the fourth quarter is less likely to be repeated this year, though the revival will continue to set a new normal above pre-pandemic levels".

"The next few years starting with 2022 will be years to watch for the effect of policy reforms, technology and industry collaboration to let gold evolve into a more transparent mainstream asset class," he stated.

For the full year in 2022, Somasundaram said if the current scenario continues without any further major disruptions then the total gold demand is likely to be around 800-850 tonnes.

The report further noted that jewellery demand during 2021 was up by 93 per cent at 610.9 tonnes, compared to 315.9 tonnes in 2020. Gold jewellery demand doubled year-on-year in 2021, surging past pre-pandemic levels to reach a six year high following a record fourth quarter demand of 265 tonnes, fuelled by weddings and festival season, underpin the resilience of gold demand following its deep-rooted socio-economic footprint in household finance, Somasundaram said.

In value terms, jewellery demand skyrocketed by 96 per cent to Rs 261,140 crores, from Rs 133,260 crores in 2020. He said, with the easing of lockdown restrictions in the second half and a successful progress of the vaccination program, economic growth altered consumer sentiment significantly, triggering spending and investments across the board during festivals like Dussehra and Dhanteras.

"This marked a remarkable recovery with many retailers reporting record sales volumes above even those of pre-pandemic levels and imports and exports rising in tandem. With more weddings yet muted celebrations, higher savings and pent-up demand boosted the jewellery market," he noted.

Many manufacturers reported stretched capacities and unusual waiting times, pointing to the robustness of recovery, he added. Meanwhile, the total investment demand for 2021, was up by 43 per cent at 186.5 tonnes in comparison to 130.4 tonnes in 2020, while in value terms, demand was up by 45 per cent at Rs 79,720 crores against Rs 55,020 crores in 2020, the report said.

However, total gold recycled in India in 2021, declined by 21 per cent to 75.2 tonnes, as compared to 95.5 tonnes in 2020, as per the WGC data. Total gold imported in India increased by 165 per cent in 2021 to 924.6 tonnes, compared to 349.5 tonnes in 2020.

"This surge in imports can mainly be attributed to manufacturers and retailers stocking up after clearing up their existing stocks following the implementation of hallmarking norms," Soma sundaram said.

Gold investment demand in the fourth quarter also surged to an eight-year high of 79 tonnes, softer prices in November coupled with a positive outlook about future prices adding impetus to retail investments, he said. He said digital gold savings also rose impressively due to their ease and safety, a pointer to altering future buying behaviour in investment gold.

How to popularise the Budget while earning trillions in revenues

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If the finance minister introduces this wonderful scheme, she will reserve her place in history as the most innovative finance minister ever How To Popularise The Budget While Earning Trillions In Revenues

Dear Finance Minister,

One of the great injustices in the world is insufficient appreciation of the importance of the union budget. Hardly anyone listens to the budget speech and the only thing most people are bothered about is whether their taxes have gone up or down. Nobody, apart from economists and the media, gets worked up over the fiscal deficit. Most people have no clue about the difference between the primary and revenue deficits. Why, just the other day I came across a guy who said he was under the impression that GDP stood for Glorious Drinking Party, which is why he thought we were celebrating India’s having the world’s highest GDP growth rate.

It’s all very disheartening, especially because the task of a finance minister is by no means an easy one. You have to take into account the incessant demands of the middle classes for tax concessions, of the masses for more welfare, of businessmen for more incentives. You have to listen politely to the contradictory advice dished out with reckless abandon by economists, read the fulminations of pundits in the op-ed pages, all the while keeping a wary eye on the rating agencies. And of course, you have a duty to brighten the prospects of your party being re-elected in the imminent state elections.

Furthermore, you have to raise revenues to cater to all these demands while doing your best to avoid increasing taxes and keeping the fiscal deficit under control. You have, in short, the unenviable task of squaring a circle.

But perhaps I can be of assistance. No, no, there is no need to recoil with horror---I am not going to lecture you on asset monetisation and privatisation and listing bonds abroad and so on. But I do have a modest proposal which will serve the twin purposes of both popularising the budget and earning trillions in revenue in the process. The aim is to spread knowledge about the budget to the masses, kindle their interest in it, while at the same time raising funds to meet development and welfare needs. Why, you could even cut taxes.

Simply put, my plan envisages allowing people to bet on the budget. They could bet on what the fiscal deficit could be as a percentage of GDP, what the revenue deficit should be, on the growth in tax revenues envisaged, on budgeted growth in capital expenditure, on the level of internal and extra-budgetary resources, on whether the level of deductions under Section 80 C should be increased, on whether the standard deduction will go up and by how much. In short, they could bet on any number in the budget. Indeed, they could even bet on who you will quote in your speech—Thiruvalluvar or the Mahatma or Tagore. But we shouldn’t allow betting on unrelated things, such as how long your speech is.

The best way to collect these bets is through the post offices spread across the length and breadth of the country. Postmen can readily be turned into bet collectors---it’s an easy job and they are likely to be familiar with the process, since many of them must be queuing up to get lottery tickets every week to supplement their meagre income.

Thanks to the marvels of technology, the bets placed can instantly be collated at a central office. On Budget Day, a certain percentage, say 25 percent, will be deducted from the corpus and the balance distributed to the winning tickets. What’s more, the winners could also be taxed---just as gains from horse racing and other games of skill are taxed now. Keep the minimum betting amount low, so as to increase volumes, and you will be able to garner trillions in revenues.

Within weeks of implementing this grand scheme, people all over the country will be going around with the budget papers in their hands, trying to figure out what the heck it all means. Within months, they would know all about the types of deficits, about the amounts allocated to various departments, about the rates of growth of taxes, about the level of disinvestment receipts, even about section 80JJA.

And you can rest assured that on Budget Day the entire nation will listen with bated breath to every word you utter. In fact, they will study every word you say closely throughout the year, so that they can place the right bets when the budget comes around.

I think PMBJP (Prime Minister’s Betting Janata Programme) would be the right name for this wonderful scheme. And the system could easily be extended to the state budgets, after changing the name to CMBJP, of course.

As for those who may have objections to betting, think of the huge increase in financial literacy such a system would lead to. Think of it as an educational project on which the public would only be too willing to pay.

It will be wonderful if you introduce this scheme in your forthcoming budget. If you do, I am certain you will reserve your place in history as the most innovative finance minister, not just in India, but all over the world.

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Budget should focus on bridging widened inequality in economy, creating jobs: D Subbarao

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Subbarao also opined that experience shows export promotion behind protectionist walls is seldom competitive, so there is a case for reducing the tariffs.

The upcoming Budget should focus on creating jobs and bridging the widened inequality in the economy besides accelerating growth, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Thursday while observing that given the continuing need to raise spending on education, health and infrastructure, there is not much leeway for tax cuts.

Subbarao also opined that experience shows export promotion behind protectionist walls is seldom competitive, so there is a case for reducing the tariffs.

"Accelerating growth is the objective of every Budget as it should be of this one. But this Budget should pay special attention to bridging the widened inequality in the economy," he told PTI in an interview.

While noting that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused enormous distress to the low-income segments who operate in the informal economy, Subbarao said the upper income segments have not only been able to protect their incomes but have in fact been able to grow their savings and wealth.

Citing the latest World Inequality Report which had said that India is among the most unequal countries in the world, he said,” Such wide inequality is not only morally wrong and politically corrosive, but it will also dent our long-term growth prospects.”

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Union Budget 2022-23 in Parliament on February 1.

“We need job intensive growth. If there is a theme for this Budget, it should be jobs,” he said.

The former RBI Governor pointed out that jobs have been lost because of the growth slowdown and also because of the shift in activity from the labour-intensive informal sector to the capital-intensive formal sector.

“Growth is necessary to generate jobs, but not sufficient,” he said, adding that there is a need for stronger emphasis on improving the ease of doing business through governance reforms so that investment becomes a promising option for both domestic and foreign investors.

Subbarao pointed out that raising the level of exports is good not just for balance of payments reasons but also from a jobs perspective because export production is labour intensive.

“Experience shows that export production behind protectionist walls is seldom competitive. There is a case therefore for rolling down the tariffs,” he said.

Asked if there is any scope for reduction in taxes in the upcoming Budget as that will provide some relief to the poor, Subbarao said as per media reports, this year’s tax collections will be better than the budgeted target which, he said, will be largely offset by lower privatization proceeds and higher expenditure on food and fertilizer subsidies.

“So, the net positive impact on the fiscal deficit is likely to be marginal,” he said. Also, Subbarao noted that the tax buoyancy the country saw this year will dissipate next year as the informal sector revives.

“Besides, given the continuing need to raise spending on education, health and infrastructure, I don’t believe there is much leeway for tax cuts,” he argued.

Asked whether the government should continue with stimulus measures in order to stimulate growth, Subbarao said in the last Budget, the finance minister committed to a fiscal consolidation path of reducing the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025/26.

“I believe it’s important to operate within that space. Any deviation from the fiscal consolidation path will impair credibility, dent investor sentiment and hurt our growth prospects.” he said.

Asked how big a concern is inflation, Subbarao said inflation has remained in the upper reaches of the RBI’s target band for much of the last two years.

Going forward, he said there will be pressure on inflation because of an unfavourable base effect, rising commodity prices and output price hikes by firms.

“Controlling inflation can go a long way to redress the distress of the poor,” Subbarao observed.

On the risk of stagflation, he  said he thinks that’s being too alarmist.

“Yes, inflation has been persistent over the last two years but note that it is still within the RBI’s target band.  RBI should be able to bring it down to the mid-point of the target band by normalizing the policy,” Subbarao said.

Stagflation is defined as a situation with persistent high inflation combined with low growth.

Retail inflation in India rose to 5.59 per cent in December 2021, while the wholesale price-based inflation eased to 13.56 per cent last month.On economic growth, he said if Omicron remains mild, mobility restrictions are likely to be targeted and decentralized.

“In the base case scenario therefore, we should achieve 9.2 per cent growth for the full year. If in fact these assumptions about Omicron do not hold, there will be a downside risk to the 9.2 per cent growth estimate,” Subbarao said.

Crash in new-age tech IPO stocks sours sentiment in unlisted market

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The meltdown seen in stocks of some of the biggest initial public offerings of last year seems to be driving investors away from the unlisted space as well. Dealers pointed to a sharp decline in trade volumes and investor interest in companies close to going publiclisting gains: Strong listing gains driving retail investors by hordes to  IPOs - The Economic Times.

“As the broader market is giving up the gains before the Union Budget, the unlisted markets too have failed to recover from the recent lows. One rarely sees a rapid fall in unlisted markets as most participants are long-term investors. Hence, if the broader market extends the losses, we may see a rub-off effect in unlisted space but at a slower pace,” said Manan Doshi, Co-Founder of

The sentiment in the unlisted space turned after the disastrous debut of One97 Communications, parent of Paytm, on the bourses in November that saw the stock plunge 27 percent from the issue price. Paytm has lost nearly 51 percent since listing, eroding over Rs 70,000 crore of its market value.

In recent sessions, dealers warned of volumes drying up scorched by a simmering sell-off in both global and domestic markets amid fears of interest rate hike in the US and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.

The fears around higher interest rates have hit the shares of new-age technology stocks like Paytm, Zomato, PB Fintech, Nykaa and CarTrade Tech hardest as the net present value of their future earnings sees a sharp downgrade when interest rates rise.

“It was a known fact that there was a good amount of froth in the unlisted markets and as the NASDAQ and the Indian new listings (especially new-age ones) corrected heavily, the unlisted markets also got spooked,” said Aditya Kondawar, COO of JST Investments.

In addition to the broader market sell-off, the disappointment around issue price of recent public offerings like PB Fintech and AGS Transact Tech has also mellowed risk appetite of investors in the unlisted space.

Both PB Fintech and AGS Transact were traded at Rs 1200 and Rs 220 a share in the unlisted market before their IPO. Their IPO price band came in much lower at Rs 980 and Rs 175 a share, respectively.

The pressure on unlisted stocks has not been as much as that in the officially listed space. Shares of API Holdings traded at Rs 107 in unlisted market at the end of December and quoted Rs 98 apiece on January 27. Ixigo-owner Le Travenues Technologies also traded unchanged at Rs 104 during this period.

Shares of Sterlite Power Transmission are down to Rs 1,260 from Rs 1,390 apiece, while those of Mobikwik Systems fell to Rs 860 from Rs 900. HDB Financial, an HDFC Bank arm, has risen to Rs 900 from Rs 895 but Tamilnad Mercantile bank declined to Rs 625 from Rs 640.Kondawar expects the unlisted market to find its mojo back once the listed space reflects some signs of risk appetite among investors. “They will return to vibrancy once the listed markets return to euphoria because while unlisted markets see a lot of interest from long-term investors, in the past few years, investors have been also getting to unlisted markets to make a quick buck,” he said.

Budget 2022 | Six measures the chemical sector expects

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In order to leverage its full potential, some of the bottlenecks and issues in the chemical sector need to be addressed. While in recent years the government has taken several steps in this direction, further support is requiredunion budget: India Budget 2022: Economists prescribe tax relief, higher  capex - The Economic Times

The chemical industry in India is a major sector manufacturing around 80,000 products, and employing ~2 million people. The sector size is estimated to be around $178 billion in FY19, of which specialty chemical is estimated to be around $32 billion.

The industry is poised to witness healthy growth over the next few years driven by growth in domestic consumption, and demand from export market, partly supported by growing diversification of supply chain being adopted by global players under the ‘China+1’ strategy. The growth in sector will aid in achieving government policies such as ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’, and ‘Make in India’

However, in order to leverage the opportunity to its full potential, some of the bottlenecks and issues need to be addressed, which includes anomalies in duty structure, high dependence on imported feedstock for specialty chemicals, low R&D spend, and expected tightening of environmental norms and regulations. While in recent years the government has taken several steps to address some of these issues, further support is required.

Some of these measures, which can be addressed in Budget 2022 are:

Rationalisation Of Duty Structure: The industry has faced duty structure anomalies arising from free trade agreements (FTAs) with several countries, leading to an inverted duty structure for several downstream and intermediate products. This had also resulted in insufficient capacity creation for these products which are used as feedstock for specialty/value-added products.

Further, high duties on key raw materials and building blocks, which are not available domestically, impacted the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers. While, in recent years some of the duty structure related issues have been addressed, such as reduction in basic customs duty on Naphtha from 4 percent to 2.5 percent in Budget 2021, and some of the anomalies under the FTAs have been rationalised.

However, further rationalisation in duty structure is needed, with reduction in duties for key raw materials and building blocks, and addressing the instances of an inverted duty structure by increasing duties on intermediates/downstream product to encourage domestic production of value-added products.

Incentives For Exports: Incentives for boosting exports in the chemical sector can be announced. Schemes such as Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RODTEP) can be extended to the chemical sector as well.

Production Linked Incentives (PLI) Schemes: Extension of the PLI schemes for more chemical segments would support the domestic manufacturing sector, and encourage capacity additions. Currently the PLI scheme has been extended to the Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and key starting materials (KSMs).

Cluster-Based Development: Any fiscal incentives/budgetary allocation for cluster-based development under existing programmes such as PCPIR/plastic parks (Petroleum, Chemicals and Petrochemicals Investment Region) or other such programmes will also help in domestic capacity creation. Such cluster-based development will also be beneficial for environmental and social risk management, due to shared facilities enabling better compliance with tightening environmental norms.

Research and Development: In order to produce more value added products, it will be necessary for the domestic industry to increase its R&D spend. Any incentives/rebates for R&D-related capital expenditure by the industry will be favourable.

Schemes For MSME Sector: MSMEs account for significant share of domestic chemical manufacturing, and specific schemes targeting this segment to enable technology upgrade, and ESG compliance (domestic and exports) can help the MSME sector move up the chemical value chain, increase its product offerings, and improve competitiveness.

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