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Events to watch this week

• Trump may nominate Yellen to second term

• Geopolitical tensions rise

• Four candidates in French presidential mix

• Fed chair: Economy healthy now

• Canadian central bank head warns on house prices

The Week ahead:

• China reports GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Monday, 17 April

• The United States releases industrial production data on Tuesday, 18 April

• The eurozone releases its consumer price index on Wednesday, 19 April

• The Fed’s Beige Book is published on Wednesday, 19 April

• The United Kingdom reports retail sales data on Friday, 21 April

• US existing home sales data are released on Friday, 21 April

For the week,Global equities dipped this week with the intensification of geopolitical jitters over rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the possibility of a stronger US commitment to oust Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. A safe-haven bid pushed the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note down to its lowest point of the year at 2.25%. Oil prices continued their rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $53.25 from $52 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, jumped to 16 from 12.8 last week.

NIFTY- 9,150.80
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,423 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,418 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.41

MARKET ROUND UP 
Indian equity markets registered modest losses in the week ended Thursday, 13 April 2017, weighed by weak global cues. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex lost 245.16 points or 0.82% to settle at 29,461.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 47.50 points or 0.51% to settle at 9,150.80. 

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.82%. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.36%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. 
Domestic bourses remain shut on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Dr. Baba SahebAmbedkarJayanti and Good Friday. 
Sentiment in global markets remained subdued during the week as investors were cautious amid geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. In recent days, the trading mood has been dented by heightened geopolitical tensions. 

Key benchmark indices suffered modest losses on Wednesday, 12 April 2017, amid volatile session of trade ahead of the release of key domestic economic data later in the day. The Sensex fell 144.87 points or 0.49% to settle at 29,643.48, its lowest closing level since 10 April 2017.

Key benchmark indices wrapped the trading week with moderate losses on Thursday, 13 April 2017, as sentiment was subdued after domestic data showed that industrial production contracted in February and consumer price inflation edged up in March. The Sensex declined 182.03 points or 0.61% to settle at 29,461.45, its lowest closing level since 28 March 2017. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,industrial production declined 1.2% in February 2017 over February 2016, snapping 3.3% growth recorded in January 2017. The manufacturing sector's production dipped 2% in February 2017, mainly contributing to the dip in industrial production. 

The inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.81% in March 2017 (new base 2012=100), compared with 3.65% in February 2017. The CPI and IIP data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017. 

Major Action &Announcement:
BhartiAirtel was down 1.15%. The company said its DTH arm Airtel Digital TV launched Internet TV India's first hybrid STB, powered by Android TV, which brings the best of online content to the TV screen along with a bouquet of over 500 plus satellite TV channels. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Tata Motors declined 3.22%. The company said group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose 9% at 1.29 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 6% at 42,596 units in March 2017 over March 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India lost 2.79%. The company said its total production rose 10.29% to 1.53 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017. 

L&T fell 0.5%. The company said the power transmission and distribution business of L&T Construction has won its single largest order in the Middle East from their esteemed customer Kahramaa' - Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation - for its ongoing Qatar Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase XIII. 

NTPC declined 1.85%. The company said that Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture company between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has achieved financial closure on 10 April 2017 to set up 1320 megawatts (MW) (2 x 660 MW) coal based Maitree Super Thermal Power Project at Rampal in Bagerhat District of Khulna division, Bangladesh. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Infosys slumped 5.08%. The company said that consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fell 2.8% to Rs 3603 crore on 0.9% decline in revenue to Rs 17120 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q3 December 2016. The result was announced before market hours on Thursday, 13 April 2017.

Wipro lost 3.27%. The company said it has completed the acquisition of Brazilian IT service provider InfoSERVER. The impact of the buyout will reflect in the financials of the company from the Q1 June 2017, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.93%. RIL's subsidiary, Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced that the Jio Summer Surprise has been fully withdrawn, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,China's consumer inflation rebounded slightly in March after slipping to a more than two-year low in the previous month, official data showed. China's consumer price index increased 0.9% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 0.8% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Japan's current account surplus stood at 2.81 trillion yen ($25.26 billion) in February, finance ministry data showed, the biggest surplus since March 2016. The result is the 32nd straight month of current account surpluses. This February's current account surplus was the largest on record for February.

Meanwhile, industrial production in the eurozone dropped unexpectedly in February from the month before, led by falling energy output, the European Union's statistics agency said. Output of the eurozone's factory, mines and utilities decreased by 0.3% from the month before, but rose by 1.2% from February last year, Eurostat said.

Global Economic News:

Trump shifts tone
US president Donald Trump sounded decidedly more moderate than he did during last fall’s campaign in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The president reversed course on multiple fronts. First, Trump said he may nominate US Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen to a second term after saying last fall that she was "toast" and he would replace her at the end of her term. He also reversed his opposition to the US Export-Import Bank, which finances US exports. Critics cite the bank as an example of “corporate welfare.” Additionally, the president shifted gears on NATO, saying the alliance is no longer obsolete because it has begun to fight terrorism. Finally, Trump said the United States will not label China a currency manipulator, thus breaking another campaign vow. The reversal may represent an attempt to entice China to increase pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

North Korea, Syria in spotlight
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean peninsula as the North Korean regime threatened a nuclear strike in response to any US aggression. North Korea is believed to be trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. This week, the US navy dispatched a carrier task force to the western Pacific in a show of force, while Chinese president Xi Jinping said that China is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. President Trump called on China to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor, saying if China won’t help, the US could act alone. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 nations continue to pressure Russia to abandon its support of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in the wake of last week’s chemical weapons attack on Syrian rebels which led to a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase by US forces.

Poloz: House prices can go down as well as up
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned of the growing role of speculation in the recent acceleration in Toronto-area house prices. The central banker said that prices had accelerated from percentages in the high teens to the 30% zone, adding there is no fundamental story that can explain the rise. “I think it is timely to remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up,” he said. Poloz also said that further rate cuts in Canada are no longer on the table.

EM debt issuance boomed in Q1
Borrowers in emerging markets raised a record $181 billion during the first quarter of the year. Corporates raised $119.1 billion, beating the Q1 2013 record, while sovereigns raised $61.5 billion, topping the year-ago quarter by over $16 billion, according to data from J.P. Morgan. Total emerging market debt rose to $55 trillion in 2016, equal to 215% of the collective GDP of emerging nations.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Four contenders vie for two spots in French runoff
For months, there have been three candidates in contention for the two spots in the second round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, the populist firebrand, has consistently led recent polls, trailed closely by centrist Emmanuel Macron. François Fillon, hampered by an ethics scandal, has held the third position most of the time. Now a fourth candidate, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has entered the fray and is in a virtual tie for third place with Fillon. The conventional wisdom is that Le Pen will be beaten handily in the second round by either Macron or Fillon, who are more centrist. But the emergence of Mélenchon could put an unexpected wrinkle into the process. First-round voting takes place on 23 April.

Yellen: Fed allowing economy to coast
Speaking at the University of Michigan, Fed chair Yellen said that the US economy is healthy and that the Fed is now shifting its focus, taking its foot off the accelerator and allowing the economy to “coast” for a while, saying a gradual path of interest rate increases can get us where we need to go. Yellen also opined on several bills that are working their way through Congress, expressing concern that the Fed could become subject to political pressure if the bills are signed into law.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are: 
Monday (17 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions 
Tuesday (18 Mar)
Housing Market Index
Wednesday (19 Mar)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications 
Friday (21 Mar)
Jobless Claims

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd For Target Rs.2950.00 -

Derivative Ideas
The stock is consolidating after forming a bottom at 2755 levels with positive price action in the past few days confirming an uptrend. The key technical indicators has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock has closed above its short term averages
* The stock has strong support on its weekly charts holding the short and medium term averages and the positive divergence in the last few weeks candle confirms the up move.
*Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs. 2810 for target of Rs 2950 with a stop loss of Rs 2740.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened on a flat note today and traded with a downward bias. It has reached near the lower end of the 9180-9150 support range. On the hourly chart, the fall is appearing as a corrective one. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty seems to have formed a wedge on the hourly chart, whose implications are likely to be bullish. Thus, the next leg up could be around the corner. We are maintaining our positive view on the Nifty with a cautious approach. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, ie 9120 will be the subsequent support, with 9000-8980 being a major support area. On the way up, 9340 and 9500 are the short-term and medium-term targets, respectively.  

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Nifty, after trading range bound for most part of the week, ended lower and lost nearly half a percent and finally settled at 9150.80.
* Existence of major hurdle around 9300 mark combined with weak global cues and anxiety ahead of earnings season capped upside; however, buying interest was witnessed in select index major amid volatility.
* In the coming week, we expect volatility to remain high due to ongoing earnings season and lingering geo-political issue.
* Considering all, we suggest participants maintaining stock specific approach and keep a check on the leveraged positions.

Conclusion:

Bank Nifty made low of  21551 so bulls held on to 21500 in today’s correction so we can continue the upmove towards 21850/21990 as we have weekly closing tomorrow, Friday being an holiday. Bearish below 21500 for a move towards 21400/21350. Bank Nifty continue to hold on to its gann angle suggesting bulls are holding the grip. Holding the low of 21600 BUlls can continue to see upmove towards 21800/21920/22000. Bearish on close below 21520 for a move towards 21400/21350/21230. New time cycle is starting from coming week (More Details in Weekly Analysis) so we can see good trending move in next 1-2 days.

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The Monetary Policy Committee in its first Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy review, held on 6 th April 2017, kept the borrowing rates unchanged at 6.25 percent. The committee however hiked reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in a bid to drain excess liquidity from the system. Speaking about liquidity, there was approximately Rs. 7,956 billion of excess cash in the banking system in January’17 which now stands close to Rs. 4,806 billion (March’17). This decline was majorly due to RBI’s tooling i.e. Market Stabilization Scheme which helped the central bank to absorb excess cash of around Rs. 3,141 billion by the end of March’17.

According to the RBI staff projections, the inflation rate which currently is at 3.65 percent is projected to rise at 4.5 percent in the first half of 2017-18 and thereafter at 5 percent. Reason behind this upsurge in consumer prices could be attributed to the rising probability of an El Niño event which could boost food inflation. Implementation of 7 th Pay Commission and GST bill along with global developments are other factors for the inflation uptick.

With respect to economic growth, gross value added growth is projected to strengthen to 7.4 percent in 2017-18 from 6.7 percent in 2016-17 primarily due to - rebound in consumer spending, credit growth, recent proposals in the Union Budget which could stimulate capital expenditure, roll-out of GST bill and the upsurge in IPO’s which augurs well for investment and growth.

MPC clearly spells out higher upside risks to inflation. Average CPI is projected to be higher at 4.5% in H1FY18, currently at 3.7% in Feb’17, to 5.0% in H2FY18. Currently, demonetization spillovers has suppressed the headline inflation numbers. Headline inflation is likely to edge higher as the temporary impact of demonetization on perishable food items fades out and core inflation (4.8% YoY in Feb’17) inches up along with cyclical upswing in demand. The factors that are expected to reinforce inflationary pressure include

a) deficient south west monsoon & higher MSPs reinforcing food inflation,

b) increase in HRA as recommended by 7th pay commission is likely to push baseline inflation trajectory by 100-150bps,

c) initial effect from implementation of GST,

d) farm loan waivers by state governments,

e) policy focus to revive demand particularly from increase in budget allocation towards rural & affordable housing,

f) narrowing of output gap as remonetisation progresses,

g) spillover of improving global prospects on commodity prices,

h) rising inflation in advance economies due to reflationary policies,

i) currency impact arising from normalization of monetary policy in advance economies, especially US Fed and

j) protectionism policies adopted across the world.

On growth front (real GVA), the outlook is seen favorable at 7.4% vs 6.7% on the back of

a) gainingremonetisation,

b) reflationary fiscal policies, specially targeted towards rural demand and

c) cyclical upturn in global growth.

According to the RBI governor, global trade volumes are finally improving which means that global demand is no more anaemic in nature. The world’s largest economy i.e. the United States of America is on growth path since all its important economic datasets on labour market, inflation and growth have come on a positive note. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the direction of US macro-economic policies with potential global spill over. The governor also feels that emerging markets are gradually improving on hardening commodity prices, easing recessionary pressures in Russia/Brazil and stabilized Chinese policy stimulus.

The demonetization effect on the economy is finally easing. This can be observed from the rebound seen in manufacturing and service PMI data since demonetization. Both the PMI data lingered close to 49.6 and 46.8 in December’16 and has finally increased to 52.5 and 51.5 respectively in March’17 due to pickup seen in demand for new orders and output. This has benefitted the Index of industrial production (IIP) data which surged to 2.7 percent in January’17 from previous months -0.1 percent. Overall business sentiment is expected to improve in Q1 of 2017-18 on the back of a sharp pick up in both domestic and external demand y | June 7, 2016 www.angelcommodities.com Page 2 RBI Monetary Policy Update 06 April 2017 About the inflation rate, since the last two months the consumer prices have been increasing, all thanks to increase in the prices of sugar, fruits, meat, fish, milk and processed foods. Kerosene prices have also been increasing on the back of reduction in subsidies. With respect to balance of trade, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $8.9 billion in Feb-17 from previous month’s deficit of $9.8 billion due to lower crude oil prices. The above strong macro-economic datasets along with the resounding win of BJP party in Uttar Pradesh elections along with the clearance of GST bill in the LokSabha has led to a sudden surge in inflows which has acted as a positive factor both for Indian markets and its currency. The annual growth rate which was at 7.4 percent in September’16 quarter expanded by mere 7 percent owing to the demonetization move. The Monetary Policy Committee expects economic activities to recover in the second half of 2017-18.

Summing up

The no-change-in-policy was mainly undertaken to guard the Indian economy against any potential flare-up in inflation. Post this event, the Indian Rupee spot has been continuously appreciating and is currently trading at 64.51 levels while writing. USDINR spot is likely to appreciate even more in the near term as uncertainty with respect to Trump’s fiscal policies will keep the American currency pressurized in turn favouring the Indian currency

Liquidity to normalize by Q2FY18 RBI’s has reinforced its earlier outlook of re-emergence of inflationary pressure with a mild hawkish overtone. Hence, even the marginal market expectation of rate easing and softening of Gsec yields has been ruled out. The pace of remonetisation will provide reinforcement to domestic demand and growth outlook. Our projections indicate that complete normalization of demonetization, including reprinting of notes and meeting normalized demand will be achieved by end of Q1FY18, i.e. eight months post demonetization announcement. Expected upside risk to inflation can enhance the hawkish tenor of the RBI’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, prospects of rising global rates led by the Fed’s normalization will condition RBI’s policy outlook, in our view.

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