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New data show Fed's inflation debate still unresolved

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New data released on Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index rising in September at a 4.4 percent annual rate versus 4.2 percent in August, continuing a run of inflation at levels not seen in 30 years

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Image Source: Reuters)

New data released on Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index rising in September at a 4.4 percent annual rate versus 4.2 percent in August, continuing a run of inflation at levels not seen in 30 years


The inflation debate is going to shift to wages very, very quickly," Lazar said, and whether increases in productivity and an increase in the number of people looking for work help ease rising compensation costs or temper their potential impact on prices.

The U.S. central bank meets next week to update its views about monetary policy, as officials balance their hope to support the economy with low interest rates for as long as possible against concerns inflation may be moving too fast.

Here's how the inflation story has evolved:

Higher prices ahead

Fed officials knew early this year that inflation would rise as the global economy rebounded from the pandemic. But where some economists felt record levels of federal spending would produce persistent price increases, most Fed officials expected a fleeting episode driven at first by simple math - the "base effects" of a weak economy returning to normal - along with some inevitable bumps in the reopening.

At their March 16-17 policy meeting, Fed officials marked up their inflation outlook for 2021. Powell, speaking in a news conference after the release of the policy statement and economic projections, said those "relatively modest increases in inflation ... will turn out to be a one-time sort of bulge ... There was a time when inflation went up, it would stay up. And that time is not now."

By September, however, inflation was running at twice the Fed's 2 percent target, and officials' projections moved higher.

Powell's own language shifted. "As the reopening continues, bottlenecks, hiring difficulties, and other constraints could again prove to be greater and longer lasting than anticipated, posing upside risks to inflation," he told reporters after the end of the central bank's Sept. 21-22 policy meeting.

Some policymakers have pinpointed the end of the year as the moment when inflation needs to ease, or they'll worry they got it wrong.

Powell and many others still think that will happen, but on a longer timetable than first anticipated, with September data showing little evidence of the expected slowdown.

Broad-based increases?

"The spike in inflation is so far largely the product of a relatively narrow group of goods and services that have been directly affected by the pandemic and the reopening of the economy," Powell said in his August remarks.

He cited the fact that alternate inflation measures which toss out the strongest price influences remained moderate. But those measures have moved higher since he spoke, reflecting broader price increases.

Waning influence of outliers

Policymakers, Powell said, are also "directly monitoring the prices of particular goods and services most affected by the pandemic and the reopening, and are beginning to see a moderation in some cases."

Powell cited the well-known example of used autos. Used vehicle prices rose at a record pace over the summer, and that has in fact eased. But he also mentioned that price hikes for durable goods in general should moderate, and by some measures that has not yet happened. Inflation for durable goods rose 7.3 percent in September on an annual basis, versus 7 percent in August.

Wages

"Today we see little evidence of wage increases that might threaten excessive inflation," Powell said in August. "We will continue to monitor this carefully."

The costs of compensation jumped 1.3 percent for the three months ending in September, the largest increase since 2001, leaving the Fed to assess whether the adjustment of labor supply and demand is near its end, or only beginning. Compensation costs for the hard-hit food and accommodations industry rose more than 7 percent on an annual basis.

Expectations

"Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory," Powell said. An argument can be made that the Fed is paying more attention to expectations than inflation itself, though measurement of them is less certain. They have been drifting higher, and if that continues it would be of particular concern.

'Global disinflationary factors'

Perhaps the most faith-based aspect of Powell's August speech was his reference to the global influence of technology, demographics, and smooth world supply chains in anchoring prices.

"While the underlying global disinflationary factors are likely to evolve over time, there is little reason to think that they have suddenly reversed or abated," Powell said. "It seems more likely that they will continue to weigh on inflation as the pandemic passes into history." The truth of that will depend on developments far outside the Fed's control, from the global flow of capital to China, for example, as the rule of Chinese leader Xi Jinping evolves, to the impact of climate change mitigation efforts that are still in their infancy.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

Share Market Closing Note Sensex, Nifty end on a positive note

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Nifty ends below 17,700, Sensex falls 677 pts; IT drags, PSU banks gain:

Benchmark indices ended on weak note for the third consecutive session on October 29 with Nifty closing below 17,700 level.


Share Market  Closing Note 

At close, the Sensex was down 677.77 points or 1.13% at 59,306.93, and the Nifty was down 185.60 points or 1.04% at 17,671.70. About 1326 shares have advanced, 1836 shares declined, and 157 shares are unchanged.

Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and L&T were among the major Nifty losers. Gainers included UltraTech Cement, Maruti Suzuki, Cipla, Dr Reddys Laboratories and Shree Cements.

Among sectors, bank, IT energy, power and oil & gas indices ended in the red, while buying was seen in the realty, pharma, metal and auto names. The BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended with marginal change.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if manages to close above 17680 level then expect some quick bounce back in the market in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is likely to follow. Avoid open positions for Monday.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 6219.If it breaks and trade below 6200 level then expect some decline in it and it it manages to trade and sustain above 6235 level then some upmove can be seen in CRUDEOIL.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

Railways withdraws decision on IRCTC convenience fee, stock recovers:

IRCTC on Thursday said it has been asked to share 50% of its revenue earned as convenience fee from bookings on its website

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is still trading in a very small range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17840 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 17800 level then some decline can be seen. As nifty is range bound avoid big trades and trades and trade with proper levels

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Topic :- Time:12.45 PM

Just In:

PM Narendra Modi arrives in Italy for G20 Summit.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 746.If it breaks and trade below 744 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 747.20 level then some upmove can be seen in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 17806.If it manages to trade and sustain above 17820 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17780 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex, Nifty volatile; Nykaa IPO subscribed nearly 2x so far

2. CarTrade slips 7%, stock at new low on second straight quarterly loss

3. Railway ministry asks IRCTC to share 50% of revenue from convenience fee

4. IndiGo Q2 results: Loss widens 20% to Rs 1,435 cr on rising crude oil

5. Fuel prices raised for 3rd straight day, petrol touches Rs 108.64 in Delhi

6. Reliance Jio pays Rs 10,792-crore spectrum dues to DoT

7. RBL Bank tanks 15% on disappointing Q2 nos, stock down 37% from 52-wk high

8. Sebis investor charter to be notified next month, wont be legally binding

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Also Read:- What is the key purpose to invest in the stocks?

Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After negative opening nifty is now trading flat. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17880 level then expect some further upmove and if it breaks and trade below 17840 level then some decline can see in it.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 29 Oct,2021:

Yesterday there was huge sell off in the market, changing sentiments from positive to negative. Avoid following rumours and trade as per market trend.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17880 level then expect some quick recovery in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17800 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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Mark Zuckerberg clarifies why Facebook is rebranding as Meta

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Mark Zuckerberg predicts that Metaverse will not going to be “huge” until the second half of this decade at earliest as the median median age of the people who use the company’s products gets older.


Facebook has now officially changed its identity to Meta. [Image: Facebook/Mark Zuckerberg]

Facebook has now officially changed its identity to Meta reflecting the company’s broader ambitions related to metaverse, dubbed as the next big computing platform.

According to Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook is perceived as only a social media company but has now become more than that. He believes that while others are trying to work on how people interact with technology, the company, now called Meta, is striving to build technologies so that people can interact with each other.

According to Zuckerberg, while many would question the timing of the metaverse conversation amid the recent controversy, he said that he believes in “what we are building and technology can make life better”.

A trove of internal documents leaked by a Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen detailed the social giant's various missteps and struggle in moderating content, especially in multilingual countries like India, its biggest market with over 340 million users.

The idea of metaverse is to make it more immersive where, instead of communicating through the mobile apps, people can feel each other’s presence.

This would mean digital avatars, one each for different occasions, creating your own space, making it easy to teleport from one platform to another, and also building security and safety features built into the platform. One can get into the metaverse through virtual reality platforms, AR glasses, computer or even phone. The company already has its own virtual reality platform, Horizon, an online gaming tool.

Here are more details on ambitions of Meta

Speaking on the reason behind the rebrand, Zuckerberg told The Verge in an interview that after acquisition of apps including Instagram and Whatsapp, there was “a lot of confusion and awkwardness about having the company brand be also the brand of one of the social media apps.”

“That’s a concern that I think people shouldn’t have to have. People had concerns that, “If I sign into Instagram with this or if I sign into WhatsApp with it, does that mean that my data is somehow gonna get shared over here in a way that I didn’t want?” he added.

Also Read:- What is the key purpose to invest in the stocks?

 Zuckerberg said that while there's financial reporting and segment reporting but the company isn’t making organisation changes yet. “That might be something that I’ll consider in the future, but I don’t think that’s something that’s near term on the horizon,” he said.

Zuckerberg said that he sees himself as the CEO of the company in the next five years and has no plans to step down. “And I’m pretty young. I have a lot of energy. But certainly at some point I’m not [going to be] running the company,” he told the publication.

 Zuckerberg said that the timing of the rebranding effort has nothing to do with the recent leaks that has left the company’s reputation surrounded by bad press. It had “nothing to bear on this. Even though I think some people might want to make that connection, I think that’s sort of a ridiculous thing. If anything, I think that this is not the environment that you would want to introduce a new brand in.”

Zuckerberg predicts that Metaverse will not be “huge” until the second half of this decade at earliest as the median median age of the people who use the company’s products gets older. He said that the target demographic will be young adults from 18 to 29 years of age.

 Asked about whether Metaverse will support NFTs, smart contracts and cryptocurrencies, Zuckerberg told The Verge that the company is supportive of it.

“One of the big questions that people are going to have about virtual goods in the metaverse is, “Do I really get to own this thing? Or is it just content that someone can basically just take away from me in the future?” And I’m pretty sensitive to that, given all the pressures that we’ve had to try to navigate around censorship and what’s the definition of something that’s harmful versus when you have to get in the way of people being able to express something,” he said adding that it becomes a lot more sensitive when there’s money and ownership involved.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

India's gold demand bouncing back to pre-COVID levels, rises 47% in September quarter to 139 tonnes: WGC

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India’s gold demand has seen a 47 per cent year-on-year jump in the July-September quarter to 139.1 tonnes, following strong rebound in economic activity and recovering consumer demand, the World Gold Council said in a report.



According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand in India is bouncing back to pre-COVID levels and going forward the outlook looks bullish.

The country’s overall demand stood at 94.6 tonnes during the September quarter of 2020, the WGC’s Q3 Gold Demand Trends 2021 report said, adding that in terms of value, India’s third quarter gold demand went up by 37 per cent to Rs 59,330 crore, compared to Rs 43,160 crore a year ago.

"This reflects a combination of low base effect and return of positive trade and consumer sentiments. This is primarily driven by what appears to be a firm grip on the pandemic with higher vaccination rates and falling infection rates, leading to a strong rebound in economic activity,” WGC Regional CEO, India, Somasundaram PR told PTI.

Going forward, imports might not be very significant in the fourth quarter as little bit of stocking up for the festive season has already taken place during the third quarter of 2021, he stated.

"Looking ahead with restrictions being gradually lifted across the country, retail demand is bouncing back to pre-COVID levels. With the upcoming festive and wedding season, there is all the more enthusiasm towards gold demand, and we anticipate it to be the busiest gold-buying season since the start of COVID,” said Somasundaram.

He further said that demand for digital gold has also increased manifold, innovative tech initiatives, tie-ups with digital gold and UPI platforms by leading jewellers has brought about a substantial increase in volume of buyers and investors preferring online purchases.

"In the months ahead, soaring commodity prices and logistical costs are expected to impose further pressures and the RBI has already adjusted its inflation expectations higher. Rising inflation tends to drive gold demand.

"Gold is perceived as a strong hedge against inflation and decades of data supports this assumption. While we have not made any forecast for the rest of the year, barring any unexpected twist in tale, we could see a sharp spike in demand in the last quarter of 2021, and is likely to be one of the best quarters in a decade,” he added.

As per the report, total jewellery demand in India for the quarter under review increased by 58 per cent to 96.2 tonnes, compared to 60.8 tonnes during the July-September quarter of 2020.


While in value, jewellery demand grew by 48 per cent at Rs 41,030 crore, as against Rs 27,750 crore a year ago.

Total Investment demand for the third quarter increased by 27 per cent to 42.9 tonnes, from 33.8 tonnes in the same quarter of 2020.

In value terms, gold Investment demand in July-September went up 19 per cent to Rs 18,300 crore, from Rs 15,410 crore a year ago, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the total gold recycled in India declined by 50 per cent to 20.7 tonnes in the period under review, compared to 41.5 tonnes in the same period of last year.

Meanwhile, the total gold recycled in India declined by 50 per cent to 20.7 tonnes in the period under review, compared to 41.5 tonnes in the same period of last year.

Total net bullion imports, without taxes, in the third quarter surged by 187 per cent to 255.6 tonnes, from 89 tonnes in the same quarter of 2020.

"While gold jewellery and investment demand for bars and coins also grew in a quarter that tends to be seasonally subdued due to monsoons and inauspicious periods like Pitru-Paksha when buyers stay away from buying gold. Softer gold prices have also generated significant consumer interest ahead of seasonal demand,” Somasundaram said.

Gold prices during the third quarter averaged at Rs 42,635 per 10 grams, compared to Rs 45,640 in the same quarter of 2020 and Rs 43,076 during the April-June 2021, he noted.

Also Read:- What is the key purpose to invest in the stocks?

Trade activity witnessed during various buyer-seller meets and anecdotal feedback from manufacturers indicate that the fourth quarter festive season could be the best in several years, with strong imports much ahead of the third quarter demand demand, he noted.

He said a 50 per cent drop in gold recycling also underlines strong consumer intent to hold gold rather than sell it, aided by a robust institutional market for loan against gold that continues to grow.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

Nirmala Sitharaman will attend the G-20 joint meeting of finance and health ministers in Rome.

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Union Finance Minister Smt. @nsitharaman embarks on an official visit to attend #G20 Joint Finance & Health Ministers meeting in #Rome to discuss measures to strengthen #COVID19 #PandemicPrevention, #preparedness & #response. The meeting precedes #G20RomeSummit, the Finance Ministry tweeted.