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The Indian market has been witnessing volatility in the last few session as the earnings season kicked off for the Indian Inc. Concerns over US-China trade deal, stressed financial sector and expectation of a further stimulus by the government have also added kept investors on their toes.

Analysts expect the earnings to remain tepid this quarter. Meanwhile, some of the companies have already declared their earnings for the quarter ended September 2019.HUL, Infosys and Avenue Supermarts are the three companies which got a pat on the back from the brokerages after their Q2FY20 results.

Avenue Supermarts

D-Mart operator, Avenue Supermarts posted a 47.54 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 322.63 crore, while revenue increased 22.26 percent to Rs 5,998.90 crore. Its EBITDA rose 32.3 percent to Rs 515.4 crore and EBITDA margin was up 8.66 percent.

ICICIdirect reiterated reduce rating on the stock with a revised target price to Rs 1,700 from previous target price of Rs 1,450.

On the back of recent corporate tax rate cut, it revises earnings estimates upwards by 15 percent.

Hindustan Unilever

FMCG major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) registered 21 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 1,848 crore. Its EBITDA was at Rs 2,443 crore, up 21 percent. The domestic consumer segment of the company grew by 7 percent with underlying volume growth at 5 percent.

Prabhudas Lilladher retained it accumulate rating but raised the target to Rs 2,083 from Rs 1,967 per share.

It has cut company's FY20 and FY21 EPS by 1.1 percent and 2.6 percent despite 5 percent volume growth and strong margin expansion on account of delayed rural recovery despite good monsoons, limited scope to increase margins from the current level and liquidity issues in trade channels.

ICICIdirect maintained its hold rating on stock with a target price of Rs 2,075.

Broking house feels that the company is best placed within the sector to use this windfall to balance between strengthening its competitive position and improving profitability.

Infosys

The company reported a 5.8 percent sequential growth in Q2FY20 with its net profit at Rs 4,019 crore. Revenue during the quarter rose 3.8 percent QoQ to Rs 22,629 crore, while in dollar terms revenue rose 2.5 percent at $3,210 million.

KR Choksey has reiterated accumulate rating on Infosys and revised target price to Rs 893 per share (previous target Rs 792) with an upside potential of 10 percent.

The brokerage house expects the company to continue this momentum

going forward as it plans to invest heavily in the expansion of digital segment in the areas like Data Analytics, Cloud computing and IoT.

ICICIdirect has maintained its hold rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 885.

It expect revenue growth to moderately surpass the upper guided band and margins are likely to see an improving trajectory from here on . They expect margins to expand to 23 percent in FY21E.

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.

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The newly formed Jal Shakti Ministry will create 3.75 million jobs for women across the country.

Speaking at the Bloomberg Equality Summit, Smriti Irani, Union Minister of Women and Child Development and Textiles, said the government’s mission is to employ five women each across 750,000 villages to be trained to ensure water quality, maintain water hygiene and turn water into an enterprise.

“Under the Jal Shakti Ministry, there will be massive employment generation for women in the districts identified. At present, we have found water-related challenges in 256 districts. We are involved in training women across these districts,” she added.

On female labour-force participation

India has a female labour force participation rate of 27 percent, which is among the lowest in the world. Talking about steps to improve this scenario, Irani said the government is taking a series of initiatives to empower women.

“One of the biggest challenges for women was access to credit. Through the Jan Dhan Yojana, about 199 million women (out of 370 million accounts) have had their bank accounts opened in the last five years. Similarly, there were 200 million loans disbursed as part of the Mudra scheme. Of this, around 70 percent beneficiaries were women,” she added.

The idea, she said, is to empower women at the grass root level. Talking about an older initiative when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Irani said he had encouraged villages to come as one unit and vote for women leaders in local Panchayats. Wherever women were elected as representatives, those villages got additional government funding.

On formal jobs, Irani said the government has increased the maternity leave to 26 weeks, and it was now the responsibility of companies to ensure that these women are not left behind when it comes to promotions.

In male-dominated professions, Irani said the number of women employed is seeing an increase. Citing the example of chartered accounts, Irani said that from the late 1940s (when Institute of Chartered Accountants of India was set up) till 2014, India only had 50,000 female chartered accountants. "However, that number rose to 75,000 between 2014 and 2019, and is estimated to touch 150,000 over the next five years."

When prodded on the government’s future focus areas, Irani said the unorganised sector has been a cause of concern, despite the higher female labour force participation, as they offered lesser medical benefits and pay.

On safety and health

Irani said the primary objective of the government is to ensure the safety of women and children. "The government has funded setting up of 1,023 fast track courts where all the pending cases relating to safety of women and child can be expedited."

Going forward, she said the government's focus will be on dealing with crimes against women in a more stringent manner. “The perception was that an all women police station was an answer to every challenge. However, we are working towards ensuring that every police station in our country has desk exclusively manned only for the safety of women in that district/area.”

On healthcare, the Women and Child Development Minister said the Ayushman Bharat (health insurance) scheme has ensured that women who have otherwise been reluctant to seek medical care do so without any hesitation.

Under this scheme, the government aims to provide health insurance cover of Rs 5 lakh to 50 crore Indians free of cost. This includes families from lower income groups that fall under the socio-economic caste census (SECC) data of 2011.

Citing data, Irani said that within a year of the health insurance scheme’s launch, 530,000 women have been tested for cervical cancer and 300,000 for breast cancer and are being treated.

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.

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India’s industrial output contracted by 1.1 percent month-on-month (MoM) in August, according to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the government on August 9.

Industrial output, or factory output, is the closest approximation for measuring economic activity in the country's business landscape.

Manufacturing output, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, fell 1.2 percent in August, against a 4.2 percent rise in July.

Mining grew 0.1 percent in August against a growth of 4.9 percent in July.

For the April-June period, the eight infrastructure sectors averaged 3.6 percent growth. Exports contracted 1.7 percent during the same period.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the March quarter slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 percent, down from 6.6 percent in the December quarter. Annual GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent for the year that ended on March 31 from 7.2 percent in the previous year.

Factory output, which is measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), contracted in March 2019. This was its first such contraction in 21 months, showing declining momentum of both investment and consumption. Even core industries productions of steel, electricity, coal and cement are falling or have been stagnant in recent quarters.

The national income data have reinforced signs that were emanating from a slew of shop-end data, such as car and consumer goods sales, often seen as proxy indicators to gauge trends in household spending.

To combat the slowdown, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman  announced a cut in corporate tax rates in September, bringing it down to 22 percent from 30 percent for existing companies, and to 15 percent from 25 percent for new manufacturing companies.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund cut India’s gross domestic product growth forecast for 2019-20 by 20 basis points to 7.3 percent, followng similar action by the Asian Development Bank and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

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Observing that the GST regime is based on 'one nation, one tax theory', the Bombay High Court quashed a Maharashtra Sales Tax order that had refused refund of input tax credit to the duty-free shops at the Mumbai international airport.

Noting that these shops are eligible to get refund of the input tax credit on the entire amount of Goods and Services Tax (GST) paid, the high court said the imposition of local taxes on these outlets would hamper foreign trade.

A division bench of justices Ranjit More and Bharati Dangre quashed and set aside the January 10 order passed by the Deputy Commissioner of Sales Tax (Mumbai) refusing to refund the input tax credit to the petitioner (owner of duty free shops in Mumbai International Airport Limited-MIAL) pursuant to the sale of duty-free goods from the shops at the departure area of the airport.

The bench noted that the previous order was arbitrary and against the provisions of Article 286 of the Constitution.

Under this article, no state shall impose tax on supply of goods that takes place outside of the state territory and in cases where the supply is made in the course of import into India or in the course of export out of India.

In its order dated October 7, the high court bench noted that if a duty free shop, which caters to international passengers, is subjected to local taxes by the state then the price of the goods, which are supposed to be free of taxes and duties, will go up.

"This would prevent the duty free shops in India from competing with the duty-free shops at international airports elsewhere in the world. This will hamper and prejudicially affect our foreign trade, and augmentation and conservation of foreign exchange," the court stated.

Challenging the sales tax order, the petitioner argued in the high court that duty-free shops at the Mumbai international airport cannot be saddled with burden of taxes or restrictions.

The petitioner had told the court that they get refund of input tax credit pursuant to sales from their other duty free shops in the departure area of other international airports within India.

"The GST regime is based on 'one nation, one tax theory'. The authorities in the state of Maharashtra cannot give a discriminatory treatment, particularly when the refund has been and is being granted in several other states," the bench said in its order.

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Banks, both private and public sector ones, will remain closed on October 8 on account of Dussehra.

The month of October has eight holidays in total, including the working offs on Saturdays and Sundays. There are, however, regional variations, with banks in Kolkata having an extra off on October 7 on account of Maha Navami/Ayudha Pooja.

October 2 was the first bank holiday this month, and the last one for most cities will be on October 28 for Diwali.

Keep these things in mind while planning your finances in October. As the bank holidays have come after the weekend, chances are that ATMs in your areas may run out of cash. Hence, be sure to make provision for cash contingency.

Some banking services like IMPS, NEFT amd RTGS are available even on holidays although with different rules and regulations.

Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) is available throughout the year including on Sundays and bank holidays. However, the timings and transaction limits for IMPS may vary from bank to bank.

National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) services are not possible on holidays, as declared by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In case of any transactions made on such days, the amount is debited on the same day but credited to the beneficiary's account on the next working day.

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Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

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