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Rupee recovers from record lows to end 7 paise higher at 77.47 against dollar

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After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data.Rupee recovers from record lows to end 7 paise higher at 77.47 against  dollar

The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets.

After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data.

However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on the account of Buddha Purnima.

The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.41 per cent to 103.75.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, surged 0.74 per cent to USD 115.09 per barrel.

''The Indian rupee depreciated on Tuesday on a surge in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, soft tone in the US Dollar and risk-on sentiments in global markets have cushioned the downside,'' said Praveen Singh, AVP- Fundamental currencies and Commodities analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

Wholesale price-based inflation soared to a record high of 15.08 per cent in April mainly on account of spiralling prices of food, fuel and other commodities, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates in upcoming monetary policy review next month.

Dollar declined on positive undertone in the risk assets and weak economic data.

''However, overall shaky risk sentiments and concerns over global economic recovery may cap sharp upside. Tensions due to the Ukraine war may also weigh on the Rupee,'' Singh said, adding that the rupee may trade in the range of 76.80-78.30 in the next couple of sessions.

The commerce ministry on Friday said India's merchandise exports surged 30.7 per cent to USD 40.19 billion in April on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as the trade deficit widened to USD 20.11 billion during the month.

On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 1,344.63 points or 2.54 per cent higher at 54,318.47, while the broader NSE Nifty jumped 417.00 points or 2.63 per cent to 16,259.30.

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers in the capital market on Monday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,788.93 crore, as per stock exchange data.

Finance ministry didn't claim inflation hurts rich more than poor, says PIB

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The claim and counterclaim over inflation come at a time when retail inflation rose to an eight-year high in April to 7.8 per cent

sitharaman

The government on Monday disputed reports that the finance ministry had claimed that inflation hurts the rich more than the poor.

“A Tweet with the picture of Union  @nsitharaman is being circulated claiming that the Finance Ministry has stated-'Inflation will affect the rich more than the poor in 2022.' The Claim is fake. @FinMinIndia has not given such statement,” the Press Information Bureau (PIB)’s fact check division posted on its Twitter account.

The monthly economic review for April published by the finance ministry last week said: “Seen over a longer time horizon, inflation in India’s economy has not been as much a challenge as is sensed from month-to-month changes. CPI Inflation during FY 2021-22 averaged 5.5 per cent, 50 basis points below the upper limit of the RBI MPC’s inflation band, and lower than 6.2 per cent for FY 2020-21. While inflation is expected to be elevated in 2022-23, mitigating action taken by the Government and RBI may reduce its duration. Evidence on consumption patterns further suggests that inflation in India has a lesser impact on low-income strata than on high-income groups.”

A query sent to the finance ministry spokesperson didn't elicit any response till press time.

Under the current mechanism, the  has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

The claim and counterclaim over inflation come at a time when retail inflation rose to an eight-year high in April to 7.8 per cent, even as industrial growth continued to falter amid rising risks from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

The data released by the National Statistical Office showed the food inflation rate in April spiralled to 8.38 per cent as prices of edible oil and vegetables shot up by 17.3 per cent and 15.4 per cent, respectively. Fuel inflation also breached the double-digit mark at 10.8 per cent in April over rising retail prices of petrol, diesel, and cooking gas even as crude oil prices softened compared to March.

Need to reduce taxes on oil in collaborative manner: CII President Sanjiv Bajaj

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In an interview to PTI, he said taxes on petrol and diesel were increased by the government at a time when the price of crude oil in the international market was low and the same needed to be reversed.Need to reduce taxes on oil in collaborative manner: CII President Sanjiv  Bajaj

Making a strong case for reduction in taxes on petrol and diesel, CII President Sanjiv Bajaj on Tuesday said it should be done in a collaborative manner between the Centre and states with a view to containing the rising inflation.

In an interview to PTI, he said taxes on petrol and diesel were increased by the government at a time when the price of crude oil in the international market was low and the same needed to be reversed.

"Very clearly one of our prime constituents of inflation is oil. We've seen the rise on the ground of oil prices resulting in petrol prices. We've seen the impact on inflation and this needs to be urgently addressed.

"We know taxation, both Centre and states, is very high and it is something which we have seen when oil prices fell, at that time rates were increased. Now that oil prices have gone up, we believe that there is a case for this to be discussed ...in a collaborative manner, because eventually we are doing this for one country," said Bajaj. The CII president also said the three contentious agri bills that were rolled back earlier "should be reviewed but in proper consultation and then taken forward".

Asked what impact the rollback of certain reforms in the past related to land acquisition and farm laws has on business sentiment in terms of policy stability especially on foreign investors eyeing India, Bajaj termed these as two different issues and said, with respect to foreign investors one should not do anything retrospectively.

"As far as farm laws and labour laws are concerned we believe that for this country to create its rightful position as a manufacturing hub for the world, we need modern labour laws. This requires the right kind of consultation and discussion with all stakeholders and we would at least support for the government to take this up in earnest, do it once more with the right consultations because we do believe it is important," he emphasized.

He argued that for the country's own food security, security of farmers, for ensuring streamlining of the number of steps from farm to fork, unnecessary intermediaries and their costs should be removed, and the agri bills also should be reviewed but in proper consultation and then taken forward.

On reports of High Networth Individuals (HNIs) leaving India, the CII president said, "We have to create over here an environment where India can prosper, Indian business can prosper. We don't then have to worry about a few people leaving".

He observed that people could have left due to many different reasons. "What we can do as a country is to create the right environment and as I said the current government has been doing that. To create the right environment where we attract business, we attract investment and that automatically should attract more and more people not only to not leave but to want to come to India," the CII president said.


India's petrol, diesel sales rebound in May as pick-up in economic activity

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Petrol sales grew 14 per cent during the first half of May when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand rose 1.8 per cent

fuel

India's petrol and diesel consumption jumped in May as pick up in the economic activity as well as the start of the harvesting season aided the return of demand, a preliminary industry data showed on Monday.

Petrol sales grew 14 per cent during the first half of May when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand rose 1.8 per cent. Cooking gas LPG, which last month saw consumption declining because of high prices, posted a 2.8 per cent rise in sales during May 1-15.

Petrol sales by state-owned fuel retailers, which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, at 1.28 million tonnes during May 1-15 were 59.7 per cent higher than the same period last year and 16.3 per cent higher than the period in 2019, preliminary industry data showed.

The consumption was 13.9 per cent more than the 1.12 million tonnes of sales in the first half of April 2022.

Diesel, the most-used fuel in the country, saw.

sales jumping 37.8 per cent year-on-year to 3.05 million tonnes in the first half of May. This was, however, 1.5 per cent lower than sales in April 2019. It was 1.8 per cent higher than 2.99 million tonnes of consumption during April 1-15 this year.

Industry sources said consumption in May is higher because of demand returning after high prices in the previous month cut demand. Also aiding the demand was the start of the harvesting season.

Another factor was the low base effect. April saw consumption drop due to a Rs 10 per litre hike in petrol and diesel prices after an over four-month hiatus.

Cooking gas, whose prices were hiked by Rs 50 per cylinder on March 2022 and on May 7 each, too saw a dent in consumption because of the rate increase. Sales of 1.05 million tonnes of LPG during May 1-15 was 5.4 per cent lower when compared to the year-ago period. It was 12 per cent lower than the same period of May 2020 but 9.4 per cent higher than 2019.

Month-on-month LPG demand was up 2.8 per cent when compared with 1.02 million tonnes sales in the first half of April 2022.

 (ATF) sales rose 83.5 per cent to 500,400 tonnes in May 1-15 to 251,400 tonnes but was 18.7 per cent less than pre-COVID levels of 2019. They were, however, 7.7 per cent more than the sales in the first half of April 2022.

ATF sales are expected to continue to pick up with the complete opening up of air travel.

LIC share lists with 9.4% discount, stock debuts on BSE at Rs 867

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Investors must be aware that the business of insurance is long term in nature and therefore experts recommend investors to stay with the company for the long termLIC share lists with 9.4% discount, stock debuts on BSE at Rs 867

India’s largest life cover provider Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) made a lacklustre debut on the bourses on May 17, with declining nearly 9.4 percent after its initial public offering was subscribed nearly three times last week.

The stock opened at Rs 867.20, against an issue price of Rs 949 on the BSE and touched a high and a low of Rs 886.80 and Rs 860.10, respectively. At 10.05am, the scrip was trading at Rs 883.40 on BSE, down 7 percent from its issue price of Rs 949 a share. India's benchmark Sensex rose 0.62% to 53224 points.

Corrections in the equity markets globally seem to have hit the listing for the biggest public issue in the history of the Indian capital market. The situation was worsened by mounting inflationary pressure, stricter lockdowns imposed in China to combat Covid outbreak, and an unabated war on Ukraine by Russian forces.

After the debut in the market, LIC has become the fifth most-valued Indian listed firm with a market capital of Rs 5.71 trillion. Reliance Industries Limited is the nation's most valued firm with an MCap of Rs 16.42 trillion followed by TCS, HDFC Bank and Infosys Ltd.

While lower valuation, compared to peers, is positive, accumulated losses of Rs 6,028 crore, losing market share, weak digital presence and the perception that not all decisions taken by the largest life insurer in the country are not in sync with shareholder interests are worrying analysts.

“The valuation at Price to Embedded Value of 1.1 had discounted the above concerns but investors must be aware that the business of insurance is long term in nature and therefore we recommend investors to stay with the company for the long term,” said Aayush Agrawal, Senior Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.

LIC had offered a discount of Rs 60 to its eligible policyholders while a discount of Rs 45 was offered to retail investors and employees which means the issue price is set at Rs 889 per share for its policyholders and Rs 904 per share for retail investors and employees.

Experts believe that even if there is a discounted listing, a category of investors will make some listing gains as the likelihood of the stock listing at a discount higher than the discount offered by LIC to these investors is bare minimum.

“LIC would be an outstanding stock to hold on to and it could become a constant compounder in people’s portfolios and has an exciting path ahead where many passive indices tracking India will include it in their baskets,” said Sonam Srivastava Founder, Wright Research. She recommends investors to hold on to the LIC shares.

The Rs 21,000-crore public issue was oversubscribed 2.95 times with bids worth Rs 45,000 crore received across investor categories.

The strongest response for the IPO came in from the LIC policyholders who submitted bids worth 6.12 times their allocated portion. In terms of total applications received, the policy holders accounted for 60 percent of the applications.

Strong response was also received from eligible employees of LIC who subscribed 4.40 times the portion reserved for them. The issues portion reserved for retail employees was subscribed 1.99 times. The non-institutional category witnessed subscription worth 2.91 times, while qualified institutional buyers’ category saw subscription of 2.83 times.

LIC is the largest life insurer in India across the parameters of GWP (gross written premium), NBP (new business premium), number of individual policies issued, and the number of group policies issued. It has a market share of 61.4 percent in NBP (individual and group), compared to the nearest competitor, which has a market share of 9.16 percent on an NBP basis (individual and group).

It is ranked fifth globally by life insurance GWP and 10th globally in terms of total assets. As at December 31, 2021, LIC had 2,048 branch offices and 1,559 satellite offices in India, covering 91 percent of all districts in the country. LIC has over 13.5 lakh agents who bring most of the new business.

At the end of FY21, LIC had assets under management (AUM) worth Rs 37,46,404.47 crore, a year-on-year growth of 10 percent from an AUM of Rs 34,14,174.57 crore in the previous financial year. During this period, the net profit of LIC jumped to Rs 2,974.14 crore from Rs 2,710.48 crore. For the period ended December 31, 2021, LIC had a total AUM of Rs 40,90,786.78 crore and reported a net profit of Rs 1,715.31 crore.

LIC has been consistently losing market share to private peers. The insurer holds 64 percent market share in terms of total life insurance premium. It grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 percent during FY16-21, while private insurers grew at 18 percent.

The government of India will still be the largest shareholder and key manager even after the IPO. Thus any future government intervention might be detrimental to shareholders.

LIC doesn’t have a strong digital presence and 90 percent of its policies are sold by agents. If this trend continues, then total cost is likely to increase for LIC, going forward.

However, Nitesh Shah, CEO-Wealth, Elara Securities India, believes that the long term prospects of LIC are very strong as it is the leading market player with more than 60 percent market share in life premium collection and listing of stock will also make LIC the most valuable and one of the largest market cap company on Indian Stock exchanges.

He bets his money on the stock from a long-term perspective.

When risk premiums are high, vertical spread is the way to go: Shubham Agarwal

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Option premiums do rise or fall with absolutely no change in Price or Time also. This happens when the assumption of risk among option traders, especially option sellers go up.When risk premiums are high, vertical spread is the way to go: Shubham  Agarwal

Options are great instruments to dodge the risk. With a capacity to create a pay-off where there is no limit on the amount of money you can make but there is still comfort on the potential loss. It always stays limited to the premium we pay.

However, for getting this kind of comfort we do have to be careful about a few things other than just the price movements. If you are guessing about Time, you are right but that is not it. Yes, we do have to make sure that we execute the entry and exit in a timely fashion so that the decline in premium that certainly happens with the passage of time does not hurt us.

Here we are talking about one more aspect. That aspect is the risk premium. Option premiums do rise or fall with absolutely no change in Price or Time also. This happens when the assumption of risk among option traders, especially option sellers, goes up.

Taking the recent example of Nifty, we saw a down move in Nifty in recent weeks. As a result, the risk of falling rose significantly. This has created a significant impact on the Option Premiums as well. Just to give an approximation, the Nifty Option closest to the current level of index with the same time to expiry a few weeks back was roughly 50 percent cheaper than now.

This rise in premium due to rise in risk level will definitely help Option Buyers. However, after a fall like this one, if Nifty witnesses a comeback and rises the risk premiums will go down pushing the Option Premiums also down. The exact opposite scenario.

To avoid that there is a very simple solution. Convert you Option Buy position into a Vertical Spread position. Vertical Spread here means, Buy and Sell into Options of same Kind (Call/Put), same underlying stock/index and same expiry.

We can create this by Buying a Call/ Put with strike close to current market price and simultaneously Selling Higher Strike Call/ Lower Strike Put.

How to Create a Vertical Spread

Stock X @ 100

Buy Call 100 @ 5

Sell Call 110 @ 3

Net Premium Paid = 2

Max Profit = 110- 100 – 2 = 8 (Difference of Strikes minus the Net Premium Paid)

Max Loss= 2 (Net Premium Paid)

Yes, we are losing out on the unlimited profit potential but at the same time we are bringing down our initial cost significantly. Also, the drop in risk premium will now happen in both the options at the same time so no need to worry about that either.

When do we do this?

One of the easiest to access indicators of Risk Premium is India VIX. An index that gives you a number representation of riskiness in the market. If India VIX goes up by more than 20-30 percent from the recent low, convert your Option Buy Trades into Vertical Spreads. India VIX is computed by NSE and is available for free over the internet.

Finally, Vertical Spread is just the tip of the iceberg. There are a lot of combinations of options like this that can help us with such problems that could potentially ruin our profit potential.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Mukesh Ambani, Britain's Issa brothers face off in final battle for Boots

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Issa brothers are going up against Mukesh Ambani, who's been working on a bid for the Boots drugstore chain together with buyout firm Apollo Global Management IncPhoto: Bloomberg


Britain’s billionaire Issa brothers and Indian tycoon  are preparing to face off in the final battle for the  drugstore chain, one of the UK high street’s most recognizable names.

The Issas are seen as the party to beat ahead of next week’s deadline for proposals, after they submitted the highest offer in the first round, people with knowledge of the matter said. The duo are going up against Ambani, who’s been working on a bid together with buyout firm Apollo Global Management Inc.

Bidders are now sizing up Boots’ billions in pension guarantees -- which they’ll have to take on -- as they figure out how much they can pay for the business, the people said. They’re also working around the clock to arrange financing in a difficult market, which has gotten that much tougher due to the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation and rising interest rates, according to the people.

That’s a lot to sort through, and suitors are getting a few extra days to firm their bids up after the chain’s owner Walgreens  Alliance Inc. pushed back the May 16 deadline to later in the week, the people said.

Empire Builders

A deal would fit in well with the Issas’ empire-building ambitions. In recent years, they’ve gone on an acquisition spree that’s turned their main company EG Group into a global gas station and convenience store colossus. They’ve snapped up UK supermarket operator Asda Group Ltd. and the Leon chain of fast casual restaurants.

The brothers, who are pursuing  together with TDR Capital, seem to have found a neat solution to the financing issue: they’re considering piling more debt onto Asda and selling some of the supermarket chain’s assets to help fund the acquisition, people with knowledge of the matter said this month.

The emergence of Ambani, first revealed by Bloomberg News in April, promises to keep the race competitive. Apollo is known to be wary of overpaying on deals, which has led it to lose auctions for British  like Asda and packaging firm RPC Group Plc. Teaming up with India’s second-richest person could give it more firepower: Ambani is an experienced operator who’s keen to expand the retail arm of his conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd.

One outstanding question is how close Walgreens will be able to get to its asking price of 7 billion pounds ($8.5 billion). Bidders had pegged its worth around 5 billion pounds, though it’s possible they will boost their proposals following due diligence, the people said. The  drugstore unit being sold by Walgreens -- which has the Boots chain in the UK at its core -- also includes a smattering of retail operations elsewhere, plus attractive private-label brands like No7 Beauty Co.

Litmus Test

Retail-focused private equity firm Sycamore Partners has also been touted as one of the suitors still remaining. Representatives for Walgreens and the bidders declined to comment.

The Boots sale has emerged a litmus test for dealmaking in the UK as credit markets become increasingly fragile. The easy financing conditions that supported a series of debt-fueled takeovers of British  last year have mostly come to an end. Indeed, banks that funded the private-equity buyout of Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc had to sell some of the debt at a steep discount and are now facing losses, Bloomberg News has reported.

Whoever comes out on top, the hard work will just be getting started. Boots has a sprawling network of more than 2,200 stores across the UK, many of which need sprucing up. The high street has been hit by slowing demand in recent years, and they’ll need to refocus Boots’ business to adapt to these changing consumer habits.

There’s also the cost of living crisis to contend with. UK retailers have warned of “clouds on the horizon” after recording a sharp slowdown in sales as higher prices cut into spending power.

Rupee hits a fresh intra-day low, cuts losses as RBI intervenes

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Gold reserves increase by over 100 tonnes in two years

Rupee

 hit a fresh intra-day low on Thursday as it breached the 77.5/$ mark on the back of strengthening of the US dollar, before intervention from the  (RBI) helped cut its losses.

The  ended the day at 77.43/$, before touching a low of 77.63/$, losing 18 paise or 0.24 per cent from its previous close of 77.24/$.

 fell to a fresh all-time low today (Thursday) as the dollar continued to strengthen. But losses remained restricted as the  intervened to curtail volatility of the currency. Dollar strengthened after inflation in the US rose in April,” said Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Rupee had hit an all-time closing low on May 5 when it hit 77.47/$.

Rupee came under pressure as investors pulled out from riskier assets following the global uncertainty caused by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. The currency has depreciated 2.1 per cent against the dollar in FY23 so far and depreciated 4 per cent in 2022.

The central bank has beefed up its intervention across foreign exchange market – spot, futures and off-shore – to slow the fall in rupee. As a result, the foreign exchange reserves fell by $45 billion since September 2021.

chart

“USDINR spot touched a fresh all-time high after higher-than-expected inflation print in the US pushed US dollar Index to a fresh 20-year high,” said Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities Ltd.

“Weakness in equities was an add-on force for the US dollar. We suspect the  might have sold dollars to stem the decline in the rupee. Overall view is of a range, between 77.2 and 78.2 on spot,” Banerjee said.

Total forex reserves have fallen below $600 billion, and the market expects reserves to go down further before it increases. Total foreign exchange reserves were at $597.7 billion for the week ended April 29.

In the half yearly report on management of foreign exchange reserves, released on Thursday, the  has said its net forward assets stood at $65.79 billion as at the end of March 2022.

The RBI has increased its gold reserves over the last two years by over 100 metric tonnes, the report on management of foreign reserve said.

As at end-March 2022, the RBI held 760.42 tonnes of gold, as compared to 653.01 tonnes same time in 2020, while in 2021 the amount was 695.31 metric tonnes.

The value of gold reserves increased to $42.7 billion as of March 2022, from $30.9 billion two years back.

The report noted that at the end of December 2021, foreign exchange reserves cover of imports (on balance of payments basis) declined to 13.1 months from 14.6 months at end-September 2021. The country has foreign exchange reserves of $633 billion as on December 31.

“The ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to reserves, which was 16.5 per cent at end-September 2021, increased to 18.1 per cent at end-December 2021,” the report said. The ratio of volatile capital flows (including cumulative portfolio inflows and outstanding short-term debt) to reserves increased from 64.1 per cent at end-September 2021 to 65.0 per cent at end-December 2021.

At Rs 2898 crore, Delhi records highest ever GST collection for April

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This is the city's highest-ever GST collection for April, they said.

At Rs 2898 crore, Delhi records highest ever GST collection for April

Delhi registered a record GST collection of Rs 2,898 crore in the first month of financial year 2022-23, officials said on Thursday. This is the city's highest-ever GST collection for April, they said.

The record GST collection is also a sound indicator of the national capital's economy recovering fast after the devastation caused by the three waves of COVID-19 during the past two years, they said.

The GST collection in April 2021-22 was Rs 2,325 crore, while it was a meagre Rs 320 crore in 2020-21.

India to send trade delegations to 9 countries to boost wheat exports

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Government plans to push wheat exports, even as domestic prices reach decadal highs, raising retail prices of Atta as well.Govt To Send Trade Delegations To 9 Nations For To Boost Wheat Exports - BW  Businessworld

India will soon be sending trade delegations to at least nine wheat importing nations to explore the possibilities of boosting wheat exports. The move comes amid widespread loss of yield in major wheat growing states, and low response to public procurement by farmers who continue to sell at much higher prices to traders.

The Centre will send trade delegations to Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Turkey, Algeria, and Lebanon to promote Indian wheat, the Commerce and Industry Ministry said on May 12.

The move is part of the government's efforts to export 10 million tonnes of wheat in 2022-23, amid rising global demand, it said. Not more than 10 days after the Ukraine crisis began, the Centre began discussions with various countries, including Egypt, Turkey, China, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran on commencing wheat exports. Initial shipments have also begun to some of these nations.

The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), under the Commerce & Industry Ministry, has also planned to organize a series of sensitization meetings on exports in major wheat-growing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, it said.

APEDA has set up a task force on wheat exports that include officials from various ministries such as Shipping and railways, and exporters. APEDA officials said that Indian farmers, traders and exporters have been advised to follow all the quality norms of importing countries so that India emerges as a reliable supplier of wheat globally.

Exports moving ahead

According to estimates by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), India has exported a record seven million tonne (MT) of wheat in 2021-22, which is valued at $2.05 billion. Out of the total shipment, around 50 percent of wheat was exported to Bangladesh in the last fiscal.

Recently, Egypt, which is one of the world’s biggest importers of wheat, had agreed to source wheat from India. Egyptian authorities have now allowed India into the list of accredited countries which can export wheat to the country. Egypt imported 6.1 MT of wheat in 2021, of which 80 percent were from Russia and Ukraine.

APEDA has already communicated to exporters to register with Egypt’s public procurement agency – General Authority of Supplies and Commodities, which manages wheat and sugar imports to the north African country.

In April, domestic wholesale wheat prices rose to a decadal high. Prices have risen by 5-7 percent in March and April. However, they are yet to catch up with the export prices, which remain at record highs.

Slow procurement

Currently, farmers are not willing to sell to the government since the procurement prices being offered by private traders and exporters are much higher, multiple traders in the wheat exporting hub of Ahmedabad said.

Last week, the government revised its wheat production estimate for the 2021-22 crop year (July 2021-June 2022) downwards by 5.7 percent. National production is now estimated to be 105 million tonnes, down from 111.5 million tonnes.

As a result of heatwave conditions in March, both the quality and weight of output suffered in Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. These states have reported a fall in yield by up to 15 percent as sudden changes in temperature and climatic conditions have led to the grains shrivelling.

For the ongoing 2021-22 crop year, the government had last year hiked the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat by Rs 40 to Rs 2,015 per quintal. The MSP, however, is way lower than the going rate of Rs 2,400-2,500 per quintal as of February 11 at most major wholesale markets across the country.

As a result of this and the flurry of exports, the procurement target for the 2022-23 wheat marketing year (April-March) has also fallen to 19.5 million tonnes, down from the earlier target of 44 million tonnes. As of May 8, procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other government agencies stood at 17.5 million tonnes.

Food Corporation of India (FCI) data show that the combined stockpile of wheat had risen to a record 603 lakh tonnes in July 2021. The level currently stands at 303 lakh tonnes, data shows.

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