Blog for Stock tips, Equity tips, Commodity tips, Forex tips: Sharetipsinfo.com

Amid opposition from rich nations, India has called for inclusion of ‘therapeutics and diagnostics’ — testing and treatment of a disease — as part of the temporary patent waiver agreement that can pave the way for the future need to tackle any crisis.

Twenty months ago, India and South Africa had urged the World Trade Organisation (WTO) member nations to agree to temporarily waive some sections of Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) to ramp up production of vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. The draft agreement, however, falls short of the original proposal and includes only vaccines.

At the 12th ministerial conference at Geneva, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said there was a need to redouble efforts and commence negotiations on therapeutics and diagnostics, since the pandemic was far from over, particularly for the developing and least-developed countries. Besides, it is too late in the day if only vaccines are included as the pandemic has run its initial course, he said.

“While vaccines were for preventive need, we need to ramp up manufacture of therapeutics and diagnostics to achieve a comprehensive test and treat strategy or workable waiver or let’s say an enhanced, compulsory licensing, as we say, can deliver in some measure what it was set out to achieve. Vaccines are no longer in scarcity and affordable stocks available across the world,” Goyal said at the thematic session on ‘Response to Pandemic’.

ALSO READ: WTO MC12: Piyush Goyal backs people-first approach to world trade

“In the course of my discussions, it has been indicated that many countries do not favour supporting what has been asked. Well, if it’s only vaccines that we are looking at providing, I think it's too late in the day for that,” the minister said, adding that it was unfortunate that the profits of the pharmaceutical behemoths prevail over global growth.

India and South Africa and 63 co-sponsors had initially made the TRIPS waiver proposal to help middle- and low-income nations get access to Covid-19 vaccines and drugs. However, the discussions reached a deadlock in the TRIPS Council — a body responsible for monitoring the operation of TRIPS agreement.

The minister said the draft text from these discussions did not reflect what India as a co-sponsor of the waiver proposal had envisaged. The commencement of text-based negotiations allowed the larger membership to engage in discussions on the texts. “I was really hopeful that the remaining concerns with this text would have been resolved and reconciled. For India, a consensus-based outcome is of paramount importance,” he said.

Goyal also said India had made several compromises to enable submission of a ‘clean’ document on the “Response to Pandemic” at the ministerial.

The compromises include the TRIPS automaticity clause, which was not accepted, extensive dilution of the language on intellectual property, and tech transfer, among others. “I hope that the flexibility that we have shown will pave the way for its acceptance and be replicated in other tracks for a successful MC-12,” he said.

Outcome on WTO’s response to the pandemic, which includes the TRIPS Waiver proposal, is one of the priority items for MC12.

Demonetisation in November 2016 was a challenge for many businesses, especially the small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It was, however, a boon for banks that saw a large growth in their deposits. Cash stashed away by households found its way into bank accounts. From 2015 onwards, industrial credit slowed down very sharply to hit a several decades low of around 5 percent in 2017, and after a blip up in 2018, continued slowing down.

This trend of deposit growth being higher than credit growth goes back to the financial year 2015. Deposits growth remained at double digit throughout this period. With deposit growth at double digit, and credit growth between 5 and 7 percent, banks were floating on easy liquidity.

As the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unleashed additional liquidity and policy rate cuts that saw them hit all-time lows. For bank managers, the real challenge in the last five years was finding credit growth, and managing the impact of the pandemic on credit quality and on the organisation. For almost eight years, growing deposits was not a challenge.

This easy period of deposits for banks is coming to an end, and in the next couple of quarters we are likely to see the beginning of an intense competition for deposits. The RBI is on a clear and aggressive path of rate hikes and liquidity squeezing. The May and June policy rate hikes by the RBI’s MPC will be followed by similar hikes in August and September. Higher rates will ultimately be transmitted by banks on both sides of the balance sheet — in the pricing of loans, and deposits.

In the past, increasing policy rates were beneficial for banks as the transmission was asymmetric — quicker and larger for loans than that for deposits. In this cycle, it is likely to be different, and we may see sharper pricing up for deposits than loans. This relatively larger and quicker rate transmission on the deposit side will be driven by four factors.

First, credit growth will remain strong. While consumer credit will slow down due to higher interest rates, the demand for working capital from business will remain strong. Rising commodity prices are driving working capital demand as the cost of inventory has gone up. There are some early signs of capex revival which may further drive credit demand. After nearly five years, we are seeing credit growth in double digits. The policy of withdrawal of liquidity along with high credit growth will mean that the demand for deposits will increase.

Second, households are facing serious inflation that will dent savings. In addition to cost-of-living increases, households will see increase in the costs of borrowing. Over the last seven years as the industrial credit growth stagnated, banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) have lent freely to households, and these consumer loans now form a larger share of the banks’ loan book than industrial credit. This expansion of consumer credit has been primarily in the top two income deciles of households which also are the biggest contributors to household savings.

From 2019, regulations have mandated the interest rate on all the consumer loans to be linked to external benchmark such as the repo rate or T-bill yields. These loans will, therefore, be priced sharply upwards. In case of longer maturity loans such as home loans, lenders will try to keep the monthly payments constant by extending the maturity of the loans. However other loans that constitute nearly 50 percent of consumer borrowing, such as personal (unsecured loans), vehicle loans, etc. will all see increase monthly repayments. The net effect of these rate hikes will be that households that contribute most to the banking deposit base will see their net savings (savings after loan repayments) shrink significantly.

Third, as the rate cycle peaks around October/November, debt mutual funds will become a very attractive alternative to investors. The yields on five-year AA corporate bonds have already started inching closer to 10 percent, and with the forthcoming policy rate hikes these yields will further go up. High-quality corporate bonds funds comprising AAA and AA rated papers, could start delivering double-digit yields as the rate cycle peaks. This would entice high network individuals (HNIs) and institutional depositors to move their money from deposits to these funds. Bear in mind that funds, held over three years, provide a sizeable tax advantage over deposits.

Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has seen a very rapid increase in the adaption of digital tools — mobile apps especially – to conduct banking transactions. Thanks to these tools, opening new accounts and moving money between them is way easier now than was the case even three years ago. These tools, thus, make deposits much more fungible than before. It is much easier to woe a depositor by offering a higher rate than was the case just a few years ago. Digital technologies have also made it much easier now to move money from deposits to mutual funds.

The net effect of these factors is that the deposit market is now much more contestable. It is also important to note that over the last five years, several new players – the small finance banks and payment banks – have entered as competitors for deposits. Even the handful of deposit-taking NBFCs that have not focused much on raising retail deposits in an era where wholesale funding from banks and bond markets was very aplenty and cheap, would become active and aggressive in raising deposits.

Intensifying competition for deposits will mean that the cost of deposits will go up, and it will dent margins, unless the cost hike is passed on to the borrowers. Given the nascence of credit growth, it seems unlikely that there will be full pass through of deposit rate increases to loans. Bank margins will come down.

After a long time, bankers will realise that theirs in a unique business that must compete on both sides of the balance sheet. They will have to get ready to face something they haven’t for a very long time: intense competition for deposits.

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at the same annual average rate during the terms of the United Progressive Alliance and National Democratic Alliance governments, at least until the coronavirus pandemic struck.

According to new data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India's GDP grew at an annual average rate of 6.8 percent from 2004-05 to 2013-14—the 10 years Manmohan Singh was the prime minister (PM).

In the first six years of Narendra Modi's tenure as PM—before the pandemic struck and pushed India into a recession—India's GDP again grew by 6.8 percent on an average from 2014-15 to 2019-20.

If the two pandemic-hit years of 2020-21 and 2021-22 are taken into account, the average GDP growth rate under Modi drops to 5.4 percent.

The recently-released annual GDP growth data stretches back to 1951-52. Until now, comparable growth rates for the current GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year was available only till 2005-06.

The current GDP series, introduced by the statistics ministry in early 2015, attracted heavy criticism as it showed a big jump in growth even as high-frequency indicators painted a grimmer picture. For instance, the new series raised the GDP growth rate for 2013-14 to 6.9 percent from 4.7 percent under the previous series.

This number has subsequently been revised down to 6.4 percent.

The statistics ministry attributed the revision to a shift in focus to measuring value-addition based on a wider dataset of corporate earnings from volume-based growth in manufacturing.

However, comparison across years was difficult as the new series only provided growth rates starting from 2012-13. This led to calls for a 'back series'.

Back series controversy

In July 2018, the Sudipto Mundle-led committee on real sector statistics, set up by the National Statistical Commission, said India clocked a growth of 10.8 percent in 2010-11 as per the new GDP series. This was higher than the 8.9 percent estimated under the old series.

Further, the committee's estimates showed GDP growth averaged 8.0 percent per year during the 10 years of the Singh government as per the new series, while growth in Modi's first four years as PM averaged 7.3 percent per year.

These numbers spilt over into the political arena, with the Congress saying the data proved "like-for-like, the economy under both UPA terms outperformed the Modi govt (sic)".

However, a month later in August 2018, the statistics ministry said the GDP back series given by the committee on real sector statistics was not official but only "experimental results".

The official GDP back series, released in November 2018, showed GDP grew 7.4 percent per year on average from FY15 to FY18. Meanwhile, the annual average GDP growth rate for the last nine years of Singh's tenure as PM was revised to 6.7 percent, leading to another outcry and accusations of political interference in the calculation of India's official statistics, especially with the 2019 general elections just around the corner.

Full comparability

The numbers now released (external link) by the statistics ministry allow comparisons to be made across several decades. Some of the striking highlights are as follows:

The 6.6 percent contraction in the GDP in 2020-21 is the largest ever since 1951-52. The next worst year was 1979-80, when the GDP contracted by 5.2 percent.

>> Since 1951-52, India's GDP has contracted on six occasions: by 6.6 percent in 2020-21, 5.2 percent in 1979-80, 2.6 percent in 1965-66, 0.6 percent in 1972-73, 0.4 percent in 1957-58 and 0.1 percent in 1966-67.

>> The 2021-22 GDP growth rate of 8.7 percent is India's fourth-highest since 1951-52. The highest rate of growth of 9.6 percent was recorded in 1988-89. As such, India has never hit double-digit growth when it comes to real GDP.

The finance ministry has come out with draft SoP for facilitating e-commerce jewellery exports through courier route, as it looks to provide a simplified regulatory framework for manufacturers and traders who want to export jewellery.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has invited feedback and suggestions from stakeholders by June 14 on the Standard Operating Procedure (SoP) for implementation of a simplified regulatory framework to facilitate export of jewellery made of precious metals and imitation jewellery through e-commerce in courier mode.

The CBIC also proposes to amend the Courier Imports and Exports (Electronic Declaration and Processing) Regulations, 2010, and related forms and come out with a notification prescribing conditions for reimport of returned jewellery and has invited views from stakeholders on the same.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had in the 2022-23 Budget announced implementation of a

simplified regulatory framework to facilitate export of jewellery through e-commerce.

Subsequently stakeholder consultations, including those with the Express Industry Council Of India (EICI), Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), e-commerce operators, members of the trade, officers working in the Directorate General Of Export Promotion, Directorate General of Systems and Customs field formations, have been held.

"The feedback received through the aforesaid consultations showed that a simplified regulatory framework is required for e-commerce exports of Jewellery through courier mode. This can be implemented through an SoP for bringing uniformity and certainty on the process and steps to be followed to facilitate such exports via International Courier Terminals (ICTs)," the CBIC said inviting comments on the draft SoP.

"This SoP is applicable on e-commerce export of jewellery made of precious metals (whether or not studded or set with precious or semi-precious stones) .... and imitation jewellery .... In the initial phase, the SoP will be implemented on ECCS (Express Cargo Clearance System) at ICT Mumbai, ICT Delhi and ICT Jaipur," the CBIC added.

AMRG & Associates Senior Partner Rajat Mohan said export of jewellery would bring foreign exchange to the country and contribute to the net disposable income of Indian designers, artisans, and skilled job workers.

"Integrating and easing jewellery export through e-commerce platforms would boost the livelihood of millions of people engaged in the sector," Mohan further said.

The new rules stipulate that jewellery export through courier mode is permitted only after receipt of full advance and photos of the export jewellery, product package/outer covering, product listing on the e-commerce platform and Hallmark certificate are uploaded on the customs system.

Reimports of physically damaged or defective Jewellery exported through courier mode are permitted subject to several conditions to keep menace makers at bay. Such restrictions are imposed to ensure that the original consignee returns initially shipped damaged goods to the original exporter within a short span of time," Mohan said.

KPMG in India Partner (Indirect Tax) Abhishek Jain said the jewellery manufacturers and traders involved in/ or intending to export jewellery out of India should closely study these SOP(s) and notifications and provide their suggestion in a timely manner.

He said that the member countries of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have let down the people of the LDCs (least developed countries) and developing nations.

"My country ramped up supplies of medical products to provide medical and health items globally. Unfortunately, the WTO could not respond with alacrity. We have let down the people of the LDCs and developing countries. The rich countries need to introspect! We need to bow our heads in shame for our inability to respond to the pandemic in time," he said.

Goyal is leading the Indian delegation for the 12th Ministerial Conference (MC) of the WTO. MC is the highest decision-making body of the WTO, and it is meeting after a gap of over four years. The meeting is being held in the backdrop of the Ukraine-Russia war and the global food and energy crisis.

He said the pandemic reinforced the importance of 'One Earth One Health', calling for global solidarity and collective action. The minister also said India strongly believes that the WTO should not negotiate rules on non-trade-related subjects like climate change and gender, which legitimately fall within the domain of other inter-governmental organisations.

The pandemic has reinforced once again the need and efficacy of food stockholding for the public good, he added. A permanent solution to the issue of public food stocks, which has already been delayed, should be the topmost priority for MC-12 before the members of the WTO move to new areas.

Nothing is more important than this for the people of the world," he noted. On the proposed agreement on fisheries subsidies, the minister said the right to life and livelihood of traditional fishermen cannot be curtailed in any manner.

On the contrary, he said, those nations responsible for depleted fish stock should assume responsibility, having exploited the oceans for far too long by giving subsidies.

"In conclusion, let me say that when the world is facing severe challenges and expects the WTO to deliver solutions, the MC12 must send a strong message that the rich care for the poor, vulnerable and marginalised people and that we have come together to give them a better future. The WTO should embrace a people-first approach to trade," he added.

India's fuel consumption jumped 23.8% in May from a year earlier, continuing a recovery from a relatively low base in 2021 when the world's third biggest oil consumer was in the grip of a second wave of COVID-19.

Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, totalled 18.27 million tonnes last month, according to data from the Indian oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

Last month's increase was the biggest year-on-year jump since April 2021. Consumption also rose modestly, by 0.4%, from April.

The yearly increase is "because of a lower base, as demand in May 2021 was low due to high COVID cases at that time," although the monthly rise was surprising, said Refinitiv analyst Ehsan Ul Haq.

"However, high oil prices are likely to have an impact on consumption in the next few months. High fuel prices do not bode well for motorists all over the world," he added.

Consumption of diesel rose 31.7% in May year-on-year to 7.29 million tonnes and was up about 32.6% from two years earlier.

Sales of gasoline, or petrol, were 51.5% higher than a year earlier at 3.02 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, daily gasoil sales of Indian state refiners declined in May from April as lower consumer spending curtailed truck movement in the country, preliminary fuel sales data showed on June 1.

India's gasoline sales have been rising since the country eased pandemic lockdowns, as people continued to prefer using personal vehicles over public transport for safety reasons and to avoid heatwaves.

India's retail inflation likely slipped modestly in May, according to a Reuters poll, but probably stayed well above the central bank's upper tolerance limit for a fifth consecutive month as surging food costs offset a drop in fuel prices due to cuts in fuel tax.

DOMESTIC SALES (in million tonnes):

2022 2022 2022 2021 2021 2021

May April March May April March

Diesel 7.29 7.20 7.70 5.53 6.68 7.23

Petrol 3.02 2.80 2.91 1.99 2.39 2.74

LPG 2.17 2.16 2.48 2.16 2.11 2.26

Naphtha 0.91 1.09 1.14 1.25 1.24 1.28

Jet fuel 0.60 0.55 0.54 0.27 0.41 0.47

Kerosene 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.16

Fuel Oil 0.54 0.52 0.59 0.42 0.51 0.51

Bitumen 0.70 0.76 0.94 0.66 0.83 1.01

TOTAL 18.27 18.20 19.83 14.76 16.60 18.63

NOTE: Total figures may not tally because not all items are included in the table, and numbers are rounded. The numbers for previous months may have been revised.

A YouTuber, who posted a video which used special effects to show him beheading former BJP spokesperson Nupur Sharma, has apologised for the content.

Faisal Wani, who runs the YouTube channel “Deep Pain fitness”, said in an apology video on June 11 that he did not intend to hurt anyone.

“Like the earlier video was made viral, I hope that this (apology) clip will also be circulated widely,” the man said. “If I have hurt anybody’s feelings, I am extremely sorry.”

Nupur Sharma has caused a huge controversy by making derogatory remarks about Prophet Muhammad during a recent television debate.

Her comments led to massive outrage in India as well as in foreign countries. Many Muslim nations have condemned her remarks.

Amid fierce backlash at home and abroad, the BJP suspended Sharma as its national spokesperson.

India and Iran have "surveyed" the possibilities of settling trade transactions in rupee or through barter system, along with discussing a need to establish a banking mechanism, foreign minister of the Middle Eastern country, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said on Thursday.

New Delhi and Tehran have also agreed to "precipitate" investment in the Chabahar Port which is being developed with the help of India, the visiting minister said.

"Yesterday, we discussed with Indian high officials as a special need with my colleague the external (affairs) minister on the need to establish a banking mechanism," Abdollahian said at an event organised by the World Trade Centre here.

The two sides "surveyed" the possibility of trade in local currency, including rupee, or otherwise barter, he added.

He said there are existing mechanisms within the framework of international law which can help in reviving the "banking and financial interaction", pointing out that Tehran has implemented such a mechanism with a dozen countries already.

Abdollahian, who is on a three-day visit to India, addressed industry representatives in the financial capital. His arrival was delayed due to another round of meeting with Indian Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar on Thursday morning, as per organisers.

"As we speak, we've in mind recognised legal mechanisms that can be conducive for development of trade between india and Iran," the Iranian foreign minister said.

There are "ample opportunities" for India and Iran irrespective of the "unilateral sanctions" imposed by the US, which will not last for long, he added.

Abdollahian, who met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on Wednesday, said New Delhi and Tehran have agreed to "delineate a long term roadmap".

He further said Modi is "way forward" on such thinking about a long-term partnership, and stressed during the meeting that both the countries are already implementing the roadmap even before formalising it.

The foreign minister said there were detailed and forward looking discussions on economic and trade aspects, adding that Indo-Iranian trade was centuries old.

He also said Chabahar Port is a very reliable infrastructure asset and added that it is already functional with help from Indian investment.

"We agreed to precipitate the investment in this port," he said, adding that discussions were also held on energy.

A "special heed" was paid to the capacities in oil, petroleum and gas that exists within Iran, he said.

Iran has kept the domestic trade routes across the country ready and active to help the cause of trade, especially amid the war triggered by Russian invasion of Ukraine, he added.

Indian markets opened over 1% lower tracking a fall in global equities as investors remain concerned about the global economy while awaiting key data on US retail inflation.

At 9.55 am, the benchmark Sensex was down 1.3% or 711 points to 54608 points while the Nifty was 1.24% or 205 points lower at 16274 points.

This comes after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.94 percent, the S&P 500 lost 2.38 percent and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.75 percent overnight. Among Asian shares, Nikkei was down 1.3%, Hang Seng was trading flat, Topix down 1%, Kospi down 1.3%, Jakarta fell 1.2%, and the Philippines lost 2%.

"Global markets are falling as investors remain concerned about the global economy while awaiting key data about inflation. The combination of slowing growth and rising prices has raised concerns of stagflation where growth stalls but inflation drives up prices. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to impact market sentiments," said Mitul Shah, head of research at Reliance Securities.

Here is a detailed look at the factors sending Indian markets lower:

India data: Investors will wait for April factory output data today and consumer price index data for May on Monday. A Bloomberg poll expects factory output for April to rise 5% year on year from 1.9% a month ago and CPI to grow 7.1% for May versus 7.79% in April.

US CPI data: Investors are waiting for US CPI inflation data for May today.   They expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates by 50 basis points next week, especially if data confirms an elevated inflation reading.

ECB meeting: The European Central Bank on Thursday confirmed its intention to hike interest rates for the first time since 2011 and downgraded its growth forecasts. ECB aims to raise key interest rate by 25 basis points at the July meeting and targets a further hike in the September meeting, saying the scale of that increment would depend on the evolving trajectory of the medium-term inflation outlook. It has also ended its bond buying stimulus.

Crude oil: Currently trading over $120 bbl fuelled by intensifying geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and tightening by global central banks. As oil boils, India's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8% or $43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9% or $23.91 billion in FY21, according to India Ratings.

RBI policy: Reserve Bank of India signalled more rate hikes to come in its inflation fight. On Wednesday, RBI raised the key interest rate for a second straight month and pledged to withdraw the pandemic-era accommodation as it steps up its fight to tame prices that have been running above its target band since the beginning of the year. In the latest move, the rate setting panel unanimously raised the repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 4.90%.

Covid cases: Investors were also worried by Covid cases rising in India. The nation registered its highest daily spike in nearly three months with 7,584 new Covid cases as the country witnesses a fresh surge in several parts. Maharashtra, the state most affected, recorded 2,813 cases, the sharpest rise any state saw in 24 hours. This was followed by Kerala, which recorded 2,193 cases