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India’s economic activity showed early signs of cooling off in June as acute price pressures, rising interest rates, and a falling rupee dampened sentiment after a strong showing the previous month.

Softer increases in factory orders dragged the manufacturing sector, pushing the needle on a dial measuring so-called ‘Animal Spirits’ back to 5, from 6 earlier. The gauge, based on eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News, uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility. A move to left signifies a loss of momentum.

Pent-up consumption had powered revival in Asia’s third-largest economy, but rising prices, due in part to the war in Ukraine and supply disruptions, thwarted the nascent recovery. The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by 90 basis points in two moves to temper price gains and is scheduled to hold its next review from August 2-4.

India’s rupee fell past 80 to a dollar as foreign investors pulled out money amid monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. A declining currency may also prevent a faster pass-through of commodity slump, thereby delaying revival.

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed India’s services activity rising to the highest level in more than a decade. At the same time, expansion in manufacturing slowed, pulling down the S&P Global India Composite PMI Index a tad in June.

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Having bucked a global dash to tighten monetary policy for a year, Asian central banks find themselves scrambling to catch up in order to tackle rising inflation and defend weakening currencies.

Market analysts suspect Indonesia, the last remaining dove in emerging Asia, may be the next to move by pushing interest rates higher on Thursday, as policymakers rush to convince investors they are tackling rising prices.

Singapore and the Philippines surprised markets with unscheduled tightening announcements last week, underlining the growing urgency among policymakers to act.

Asia has lagged as the rest of the world, including emerging markets, began lifting rates as early as last June, after the U.S. Federal Reserve kicked off an accelerated timeline for its policy tightening.

While relatively subdued inflation allowed central banks in Asia to remain dovish in a bid to support the post-pandemic economic recovery, that led to weakening currencies and capital outflows, even as the war in Ukraine exacerbated price pressures globally.

"Have central banks been too slow to act? Yes, I know, it's a common question," Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said at a conference on Tuesday.

"And I don't want to sound defensive on behalf of my colleagues elsewhere but very few people saw this coming. The markets didn't see it.

"The climb in inflation has been quite rapid. It was unusually fast ... And many thought the bigger risks were on the downside on growth and so did not see this coming."

Currencies and bonds have borne the brunt. Among the worst hit, the Philippine peso is down more than 10% year-to-date, and just off a nearly 17-year low of 56.53 per dollar. Yields on the country's government bonds have spiked about 200 basis points (bps) since the start of the year.

The Thai baht has fallen more than 10% this year, and Thailand snapped a five-month streak of foreign investment into equities to lose $816 million in June.

A large part of the selling has been a response to rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar - factors beyond domestic policymakers' control, giving Asia an excuse to hold off on rate hikes.

But central banks are suddenly finding they can no longer ignore rising food and oil prices. Thailand and Indonesia saw inflation hit multi-year highs this month.

Even South Korea, which began raising rates as early as August 2021, saw prices hit a 24-year high in June, triggering a record half-point rate hike last week.

"What I suspect they're doing at this stage is really (to) still focus on fighting inflation for the next few months, because that's where the concern is," said Euben Paracuelles, chief ASEAN economist at Nomura.

He added that rising global headwinds and the risk of recession in major economies complicated the policy challenge at a time when inflation was at the start of a sharp pickup in Southeast Asia.

PEER PRESSURE

India, which first saw its central bank raising rates by 40 bps in an off-cycle move in May, has logged six straight months of foreign investor equity outflows, contributing to a record drop in the rupee.

The historically volatile Indonesian rupiah is actually only down around 5% versus the dollar for the year, although it saw its largest monthly fall of 2.2% in June.

It has to some extent been helped by resource-rich Indonesia's improved trade position and the fact foreigners now hold less than a fifth of its high-yielding bonds.

Others, such as the Philippines and Thailand, are far more vulnerable owing to their current account deficits and, in the latter's case, reliance on a tourism sector still struggling following the COVID pandemic.

"Indonesia has been, for the most part, able to hold off on rate hikes. But I actually think they'll hike ... just because everybody has tightened already," said Nicholas Mapa, senior economist at ING.

Yet, only 11 out of 29 economists polled by Reuters expect Bank Indonesia to raise rates on Thursday.

"The room to keep growth-supportive monetary policy is definitely coming to a close very imminently," said UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja, referring to central banks that have yet to raise rates.

A senior director at the Bank of Thailand said last week that the central bank is highly likely to raise its key policy rate in August, adding that the bank is ready to intervene if the baht weakens too much.

"At the end of the day, we are dealing with a much tighter global monetary policy landscape, so there's definitely compulsion for central banks in general to raise rates," said OCBC economist Wellian Wiranto.

Karnataka has topped the India Innovation Index, according to the Niti Aayog. Telangana and Haryana are second and third in the ranking, respectively, the government’s top thinktank said on July 21.

Among the North-Eastern and hilly states, Manipur is the best performer, followed by Uttarakhand and Meghalaya. Chandigarh has topped the ranking for the Union Territories and city-states, followed by Delhi.

The third edition of the India Innovation Index 2021 is set against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has disrupted the global socio-economic landscape.

The edition solidifies the scope of innovation analysis in the country by adopting the framework of the Global Innovation Index and expanding the number of indicators from 36 to 66 across seven key pillars.

India’s economic activity showed early signs of cooling off in June as acute price pressures, rising interest rates, and a falling rupee dampened sentiment after a strong showing the previous month.

Softer increases in factory orders dragged the manufacturing sector, pushing the needle on a dial measuring so-called ‘Animal Spirits’ back to 5, from 6 earlier. The gauge, based on eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News, uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility. A move to left signifies a loss of momentum.

Pent-up consumption had powered revival in Asia’s third-largest economy, but rising prices, due in part to the war in Ukraine and supply disruptions, thwarted the nascent recovery. The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by 90 basis points in two moves to temper price gains and is scheduled to hold its next review from Aug. 2-4.

India’s rupee fell past 80 to a dollar as foreign investors pulled out money amid monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. A declining currency may also prevent a faster pass-through of commodity slump, thereby delaying revival.

Below are details of the dashboard. (For an alternative gauge of growth trends, follow Bloomberg Economics’ monthly GDP tracker -- a weighted index of 11 indicators.)

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed India’s services activity rising to the highest level in more than a decade. At the same time, expansion in manufacturing slowed, pulling down the S&P Global India Composite PMI Index a tad in June.

Demand in India’s dominant services sector strengthened after a wider reopening from the pandemic, but elevated input costs risk roiling sentiment and hurting demand. “Middle-to-high income households are likely to prioritize spending on contact intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, at the cost of consumer durables,” according to ICRA Ltd. Chief Economist Aditi Nayar.

Exports

India’s trade deficit widened to a record $26.2 billion in June as imports rose faster than exports, raising concerns about a further slide in the rupee and a bigger current account deficit. Petroleum products, coal, and gold primarily contributed to the rise in inbound shipments, while exports took a hit amid fears of a global recession.

Besides the US and Europe, the risk of recession is rising in Asian economies too, as higher prices spur central banks to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Consumer Activity
After several months of decline, India’s automobile sector recovered amid an easing semiconductor crisis. Key segments, including passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and utility vehicles, rose, driven by demand for personal mobility.

Other indicators of consumer demand also showed a pick up, with bank credit growing 13.16 per cent at the end of June, from 12.12 per cent in May. However, surplus liquidity in the banking system is dropping as the central bank mops up excess supply extended during the pandemic.

Industrial Activity

The industrial activity also showed momentum. Factory output rose to a one-year high of 19.6 per cent in May from a year ago, helped by manufacturing and electricity production. The output of eight key infrastructure industries climbed 18.1 per cent in May, the highest jump in more than a year. Both the data are published with a one-month lag.

Source: business standard

India’s economic activity showed early signs of cooling off in June as acute price pressures, rising interest rates, and a falling rupee dampened sentiment after a strong showing the previous month.

Softer increases in factory orders dragged the manufacturing sector, pushing the needle on a dial measuring so-called ‘Animal Spirits’ back to 5, from 6 earlier. The gauge, based on eight high-frequency indicators compiled by Bloomberg News, uses a three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility. A move to left signifies a loss of momentum.

Pent-up consumption had powered revival in Asia’s third-largest economy, but rising prices, due in part to the war in Ukraine and supply disruptions, thwarted the nascent recovery. The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by 90 basis points in two moves to temper price gains and is scheduled to hold its next review from Aug. 2-4.

India’s rupee fell past 80 to a dollar as foreign investors pulled out money amid monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. A declining currency may also prevent a faster pass-through of commodity slump, thereby delaying revival.

Below are details of the dashboard. (For an alternative gauge of growth trends, follow Bloomberg Economics’ monthly GDP tracker -- a weighted index of 11 indicators.)

Business Activity

Purchasing managers’ surveys showed India’s services activity rising to the highest level in more than a decade. At the same time, expansion in manufacturing slowed, pulling down the S&P Global India Composite PMI Index a tad in June.

Demand in India’s dominant services sector strengthened after a wider reopening from the pandemic, but elevated input costs risk roiling sentiment and hurting demand. “Middle-to-high income households are likely to prioritize spending on contact intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, at the cost of consumer durables,” according to ICRA Ltd. Chief Economist Aditi Nayar.

Exports

India’s trade deficit widened to a record $26.2 billion in June as imports rose faster than exports, raising concerns about a further slide in the rupee and a bigger current account deficit. Petroleum products, coal, and gold primarily contributed to the rise in inbound shipments, while exports took a hit amid fears of a global recession.

Besides the US and Europe, the risk of recession is rising in Asian economies too, as higher prices spur central banks to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Consumer Activity
After several months of decline, India’s automobile sector recovered amid an easing semiconductor crisis. Key segments, including passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and utility vehicles, rose, driven by demand for personal mobility.

Other indicators of consumer demand also showed a pick up, with bank credit growing 13.16 per cent at the end of June, from 12.12 per cent in May. However, surplus liquidity in the banking system is dropping as the central bank mops up excess supply extended during the pandemic.

Industrial Activity

The industrial activity also showed momentum. Factory output rose to a one-year high of 19.6 per cent in May from a year ago, helped by manufacturing and electricity production. The output of eight key infrastructure industries climbed 18.1 per cent in May, the highest jump in more than a year. Both the data are published with a one-month lag.

The Centre has no plans to subsidise the export of pulses, minister of consumer affairs, food, and public distribution Piyush Goyal has said.

"There is no proposal to offer export subsidies for pulse traders," Goyal said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha Day 3 of the monsoon session on July 20.

The comments come amid reports that exporters want a cash subsidy to boost trade.

The Economic Times reported in June that exporters and traders had asked for a 10 percent cash subsidy to boost channa exports at a time when prices had fallen below the minimum support price (MSP) on the back of record production.

"We are awaiting a reply from the government," The Economic Times quoted Bimal Kothari, chairman of Indian Pulses and Grains Association, as saying. Kothari added that India had a "huge" stock of channa.

In his response in the Lok Sabha, Goyal also said free import of tur and urad dal until the end of FY23 was decided "after carefully analysing production, availability, prices and market conditions to protect the interest of domestic farmers while ensuring adequate availability at reasonable prices for all the consumers across India".

Prices having been searing in India for several years now, with the headline retail inflation at 7.01 percent in June, the 33rd consecutive month it stayed above the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent. It was also the sixth month in row that inflation was above the 6 percent upper-bound of the 2-6 percent tolerance range. The government and the central bank have been forced to take steps to ease the price pressure.

India has cut a windfall tax on diesel and aviation fuel shipments by 2 rupees a liter, according to a government notification.

New Delhi also cut the tax on domestically produced crude to 17,000 rupees a tonne, effective July 20.

Amid uproar in Parliament, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday took to Twitter to clarify the decisions taken by the GST Council in its 47th meeting last month in Chandigarh. The Council recommended reconsidering the approach for the imposition of GST on specified food items like pulses, cereals, flour etc, said Sitharaman in a Twitter thread.

The FM tweeted that certain items including pulses/daal, wheat, rye, oats, maize, rice, aatta/flour, suji/rawa, besan, puffed rice, curd/lassi when sold loose and non pre-packed or pre-labeled, will not attract any GST.

Sitharaman pointed out that this is not the first time these food articles are being taxed and that states were collecting significant revenue from foodgrain in the pre-GST regime. "Punjab alone collected more Rs 2,000 cr on food grain by way of purchase tax. UP collected Rs 700 cr," she tweeted.

"All states were present in GST Council when this issue was presented by the Group of Ministers on Rate Rationalisation in the 47th meeting held in Chandigarh on Jun 28, 2022. All States, including non-BJP States (Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala) agreed with the decision. This decision of the GST Council is yet again by consensus," she said.

"Further, the GoM that recommended these changes was composed of members from West Bengal, Rajasthan, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Goa & Bihar and was headed by CM of Karnataka. It carefully considered this proposal, taking into account the tax leakage," added Sitharaman.

"This decision was a much-needed one to curb tax leakage. It was considered at various levels including by officers, the Group of Ministers, and was finally recommended by the GST Council with the complete consensus of all members," said FM in her concluding tweet.

Lok Sabha proceedings were adjourned on Tuesday amid protests by opposition members over imposition of GST on some new items and on price rise issue.

As soon as the House reassembled at 2 pm, opposition members belonging to the Congress, Trinamool Congress, DMK and others came to the well of the House carrying placards to protest against price rise and imposition of the GST on some new items.

After laying of papers by the members, Kirit Premjibhai Solanki, who was on the chair adjourned the House for the day.

Godrej Consumer Products will invest Rs 100 crore over the next three years to spread mass awareness about green lifestyles, a top official said on Tuesday.

The brand, which has launched a ready-to-mix body wash aimed at reducing plastic usage, will spend the money to promote better plastic consumption, its managing director and chief executive Sudhir Sitapati told reporters here.

Amid the widespread regulatory actions like the ban on single-use plastics, Sitapati said banning plastics is not the answer to the current challenges.

He said plastic has solved a lot of problems and democratised consumption by making it possible for people from different strata of society to use various products.

Activist Afroze Shah said corporates need to do more when it comes to sustainability, and also stressed that it is the management of plastic where we need to direct our efforts. Sitapati said the product launched on Tuesday – christened as "Godrej Magic Bodywash” – uses only 16 per cent of plastic by weight and the company aims to reduce it further to 8 per cent in a few years.

The Indian rupee touched another record low as foreign investors continued to sell the nation’s equities.

The rupee declined to 80.0125 per dollar on Tuesday. The currency has been buffeted by nearly $30 billion of foreign outflows from the nation’s equities so far this year -- a record sum -- and concerns over a deteriorating current-account deficit amid elevated oil and commodity prices.

India policymakers have sought to arrest the currency’s decline with a raft of measures -- from intervention to raising duties on gold imports -- with a weaker rupee adding to imported inflation pressures. Other emerging market currencies are also feeling the heat as a hawkish Federal Reserve lures capital toward the US.

The currency has declined 7% this year as a shortfall in India’s current account -- the broadest measure of external finances -- will

probably widen to 2.9% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending March 31, according to a Bloomberg survey in late June, nearly double the level seen in the previous year.

India’s central bank is for an orderly appreciation or depreciation in the currency and is intervening in all market segments to curb volatility, Governor Shaktikanta Das said earlier this month.

Strategists at Nomura Holdings Inc and Morgan Stanley continue to remain bearish on the rupee, forecasting the currency may decline to 82 to a dollar by September.

The Reserve Bank of India has foreign-exchange reserves of almost $600 billion, which it has been deploying to protect the rupee. Authorities have raised duties on gold import and raised levies on petroleum exports. The monetary authority has also announced measures to draw more forex inflows into the country and allowed rupee settlement of trade.