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When the Reserve Bank of India adopted a formal retail inflation target and turned into an inflation-targeting central bank just like its developed economy peers, little did it anticipate a potential failure only six years into the job. To be fair, pretty much every inflation-targeting central bank globally is staring at an embarrassing failure this year and some have even tasted it already.

The RBI is mandated by law to keep retail inflation in a 2-6 percent band and it will fail to do so if retail inflation averages above 6 percent for three consecutive quarters. The odds of this happening are high after the inflation print of 6.7 percent for July.

Most private economists have pegged their forecasts at around that of the RBI or slightly below. But none expects Consumer Price Index inflation to slip below the 6 percent mark.

FY24 could be a lot more forgiving on the inflation front as the base effect itself could bring down progressive readings. Economists expect average inflation to be about 5 percent for the next year.

While that would bring inflation within the mandated band, in spirit the RBI would consider a win only when the coveted 4 percent medium-term target is reached. Economists expect it will take another six quarters at least for headline retail inflation to drop to 4 percent.

Global commodity inflation would continue to weigh heavily but fiscal policy, and the strength and unevenness of economic recovery would be determinants of inflation as well, making the journey to 4 percent arduous for the RBI.

Push becomes shove

Some factors that have capped the surge in inflation are from the fiscal side. Whether it was the restriction of imports of important food grains or a cut in taxes on fuel, the government has done its bit to keep retail prices from rising unbridled in the wake of the global surge in them.

Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays, pointed out that a lot of what the RBI can do depends on how much the government reverses its fiscal policy measures.

“There are a lot of fiscal tools at play in managing inflation. Some of these tools may have to be reversed,” he said.

The government plans to bring most goods under the ambit of the goods and services tax. GST has been increased for several items, which may feed into inflation as manufacturers hike market prices to absorb the tax impact. Then there is the government’s fiscal deficit itself, which needs to be brought down.

Bad side of good news

India’s economic recovery has gained traction, in a relief to policymakers. Under the pleasing recovery is weak consumption demand, which prevents demand-led inflation.

However, this has to be seen through the lens of pricing power. Companies have been able to increase prices and prevent a sharp erosion of their profit margins despite weak consumption demand.

The uneven K-shaped economic recovery has meant that large listed manufacturers dominate the pricing decisions of items while the universe of small businesses buckles under pressure.

“The companies that are big and dominate industry also supply much of the consumption goods and services while a large part of small business are involved as suppliers to big companies. So a few large companies determine the pricing of goods and they can easily hike prices,” said an economist at foreign bank, requesting anonymity.

The upshot is that even if consumption demand isn’t as robust as it was before the pandemic, there is no guarantee that prices will come down. Eventually, demand for higher wages will feed into inflation.

That brings us to inflation expectations, something the RBI must monitor at all times. Household inflation expectations have cooled off in recent months, but they remain elevated. Confidence that prices may come down is shaky yet. Until expectations show a sustained drop, the outlook on retail inflation is likely to remain clouded.

Apple supplier Foxconn has signed a $300 million memorandum of understanding with Vietnamese developer Kinh Bac City to expand its facility in the north of the country to diversify and boost production, state media said on Saturday.

The Taiwanese company's new factory, on a plot of 50.5 hectares (125 acres) in Bac Giang province, will generate 30,000 local jobs, the Tuoi Tre newspaper said.

Foxconn, formally called Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, and Kinh Bac City did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The move follows a report this week that Foxconn has started test production of the Apple Watch in northern Vietnam.

Foxconn, which has been in Bac Giang for 15 years, has moved part of its iPad and AirPods production to Bac Giang's Quang Chau Industrial Park, Tuoi Tre reported. It did not say which type of products would be produced at the new factory or its capacity.

The Vietnamese government said last year Foxconn had invested $1.5 billion in the Southeast Asian country.

India is better placed on the growth-inflation-external balance triangle for 2022-23 than it was two months ago, on the back of government policy response and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy actions, the finance ministry's monthly economic review said on Friday.

On the price situation, the review said in absence of any further shocks, the downward movement of global commodity prices along with the RBI's monetary measures and the government's fiscal policies are expected to cap inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Softening of inflationary pressures in India is further on the anvil as the prices of important raw materials such as iron ore, copper and tin that feed into the domestic manufacturing process, globally trended downwards in July 2022, it noted.

Headline retail inflation eased to 6.7 per cent in July 2022 from 7.01 per cent in the previous month.

Despite global headwinds, the IMF forecasts

India's economy to grow at a robust rate of 7.4 per cent in 2022-23, the highest among major economies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a growth rate of 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal.

The buoyant performance of some high frequency indicators during the first four months of 2022-23 is consistent with IMF's forecast.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and eight core industries points towards strengthening of industrial activity, while PMI Manufacturing touched an 8-month high in July with marked gains in growth of new business and output, it said.

On the external front, it said, post the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, an increase in uncertainty among investors has led to capital outflows, not just from India alone but from the group of emerging market economies (EMEs) as a whole.

Thus, apart from India, the currencies of several EMEs also depreciated against the US dollar. Between January and July of 2022, foreign portfolio investors pulled out USD 48.0 billion from EMEs, it said.

The report added that global investor confidence in India's economic landscape is further endorsed by net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remaining robust at USD 13.6 billion in Q1 of 2022-23, as compared to USD 11.6 billion during the corresponding period of the last year.

India's growth outlook for 2022-23, though lower than projections made before the outbreak of the conflict in Europe which resulted in sharply higher price for crude oil and other essential commodities, is still comfortably high and confirms the recovery of animal spirits and economic growth from the pandemic-induced contraction in 2021-22, it said.

Observing that private sector and banking sector balance sheets are healthy and there is appetite to borrow and to lend respectively, the report said barring further adverse shocks to commodity prices and thus India's terms of trade, economic growth will consolidate and retain its momentum into 2023- 24.

As and when the Indian private sector embarks on the long-awaited capital expenditure cycle, building on the government's capital expenditure of recent years, it said, India's potential and estimated economic growth performance in the rest of the decade will inevitably be revised higher.

Petrol and diesel prices held steady on August 19, the latest price notification issued by fuel retailers showed. The prices have stayed unchanged for more than a month.

Petrol in Mumbai is being sold for Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel for Rs 94.27. Petrol and Diesel in Delhi costs Rs 96.72 and Rs 89.62 a litre. Petrol and diesel are priced at Rs 102.63 and Rs 94.24 in Chennai and at Rs 106.03 and Rs 92.76 in Kolkata.

Oil marketing companies are reportedly incurring a loss of Rs 13.08 a litre on petrol and Rs 24.09 on diesel. India meets 80 percent of its fuel needs through imports.

According to a circular issued by the Centre, the export duty on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) was hiked to Rs 2 per litre from nil while the export duty on diesel was hiked by two rupees to Rs 7 per litre from Rs 5 per litre.

The changes will come into force on August 19, 2022.

In the previous review meets, the export duties on petrol and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) were removed by the government.

Oil edges higher on optimism for firmer crude demand

Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Friday, extending a rally into a third day, as investors weighed hopes for strong fuel demand after a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude stocks, brushing off worries about a global economic slowdown

Brent crude futures climbed 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $96.66 a barrel by 0030 GMT after settling 3.1% higher on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.65 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2%, following a 2.7% increase in the previous session.

Still, the benchmark contracts were headed for weekly losses of about 1.5%.

"The oil market gained as bullish U.S. weekly data bolstered optimism for improved fuel demand for the near-term," said Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst with Rakuten Securities.

India's worst period of macro instability is possibly over, and both consumer inflation and trade deficit are expected to moderate albeit gradually, Morgan Stanley said.

"Global commodity prices were largely steady last month, with the exception of oil prices which continued to decline," Upasana Chachra, chief India economist at Morgan Stanley, said in the note on Wednesday.

"We believe the worst of macro instability is behind us now, though moderation in inflation and narrowing of India's trade deficit will be gradual."

The note pointed out that the indexes measuring global commodity prices, food prices and metal prices had stabilised in August and were down 9%-25% from their peak. Oil prices, meanwhile, had declined 8% month-on-month.

"These fuel-related global commodities constitute 13.2% of India's CPI (consumer price index) and 33.8% of the WPI (wholesale price index) basket," Chachra said. The rupee had also been relatively stable in August, she said.

Chachra reckons India's consumer inflation rate will rise to 7%-7.2% in August and remain at 7% in September before moderating gradually. The inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band for seven straight months.

The research house reckons India's trade deficitit likely peaked at $30 billion in July. The record trade deficit has prompted economists to revise India's current account deficit and balance of payments projections.

"We believe that lower commodity prices and a partial roll back of taxes on petroleum products will help improve the trade balance trend," Chachra said.

Telecom companies were issued allocation letters within hours after paying the first installment for 5G spectrum, prompting Bharti Enterprises Chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal to praise the government for the ease of doing business.

“No fuss, no follow up, no running around the corridors and no tall claims. This is ease of doing business at work in its full glory. In my over 30 years of first-hand experience with the DoT (Department of Telecommunications), this is a first! Business as it should be,” Mittal said in a statement on Thursday.

Telecom companies paid over Rs 17, 873 crore towards 5G spectrum dues.

Nearly half of the amount (Rs 8,312.4 crore) was paid by Bharti Airtel, which made advance payments for four years to free up cash for future investments.

Mittal said Airtel was provided the allocation letter for the designated frequency bands within hours of payment. E band allocation was given along with spectrum as promised.

“Leadership at work—right at the top and at the helm of telecom. What a change! Change that can transform this nation – power its dreams to be a developed nation,” Mittal said in his statement.

Airtel, which plans to roll out commercial 5G service later this month, acquired 19,867 MHz of spectrum in various bands worth Rs 43,084 crore in the recent auction of 5G spectrum. This includes spectrum in 3.5 GHz, 26 GHz, and certain low and mid-bands.

India’s government is studying a slower retirement of aging coal-fired power plants as it also adds newer sites, a move that would keep fossil fuel capacity higher for years and potentially stall efforts to hit climate goals.

Officials are considering a proposal to shutter less than 5 gigawatts of existing capacity by the end of the decade as the nation grapples with surging electricity demand and a global energy shortage, according to people familiar with the matter. That compares with plans drawn up in 2020 that proposed shuttering about 25 gigawatts by the same date.

Spokespeople for India’s power ministry and environment ministry didn’t respond to emails and text messages seeking comment.

India currently has about 204 gigawatts of coal power capacity and the plans under discussion would see that total expand to more than 250 gigawatts over the next decade, according to two of the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are private. No final decisions have been made, the people said.

“Any rupee invested in new coal infrastructure takes India away from its net zero goals,” said Sunil Dahiya, an analyst with the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which supports the faster adoption of less-polluting fuels. “It will load the power system with redundant capacities and hinder investments in clean power projects.”

A pipeline of 30 gigawatts of coal projects that are in advanced stages of construction should be used to replace old and inefficient plants, and India should prioritize investments in expanding its grid and on decarbonization projects, Dahiya said.

Under the proposals being considered, India’s coal plants -- which currently account for almost 70% of electricity generation -- would continue to handle peak evening power demand, even as solar and wind projects become increasingly able to fulfill day-time requirements, according to the people.

The world’s third-largest emitter doesn’t envisage hitting net-zero until 2070, and is aiming only for half of its electricity generation capacity to use clean fuels by 2030, giving the nation scope to continue relying on coal for decades more. Together with China, India frustrated efforts to set a date to phase out the use of unabated coal power at last year’s Glasgow climate talks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government aims to build 500 gigawatts of clean power capacity by 2030, and to ultimately become a global hub for solar, energy storage and green hydrogen. In the shorter term, ministers are seeking to ensure stable energy supply to consumers and industry.

With gas prices stubbornly high, many new hydropower projects proving too complex and a planned roll-out of renewables in its early stages, policymakers see a need to extend reliance on the country’s coal fleet. Other nations globally have also been responding to high demand and severe shortages of natural gas by burning more coal.

Telecom operator Bharti Airtel has paid Rs 8,312.4 crore to the Department of Telecom towards dues for spectrum acquired in the recently concluded 5G auctions, the company said on Wednesday.

With the payment, Airtel has paid four years of 2022 spectrum dues upfront.

Airtel said it believes that this upfront payment, coupled with the moratorium on spectrum dues and AGR (adjusted gross revenue)-related payments for four years, will free up future cash flows and allow Airtel to dedicate resources to single-mindedly concentrate on the 5G rollout.

Telecom tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal's Bharti Airtel made a successful bid of Rs 43,039.63 crore.

"This upfront payment of 4 years allows us to drive 5G rollout in a concerted manner given our operating free cash flow. Airtel also has access to Rs 15,740.5 crore in capital from the rights issue, which is yet to be called.

"With the ideal spectrum bank, best technology and adequate free cash flow, we are excited to bring to the country a world-class 5G experience," Bharti Airtel MD and CEO Gopal Vittal said in the statement.

The company had an option to pay Rs 3,848.88 crore upfront and the rest in 19 annual instalments.

The country's biggest ever auction of telecom spectrum received a record Rs 1.5 lakh crore worth of bids, with Mukesh Ambani's Jio cornering nearly half of all the airwaves sold with Rs 87,946.93 crore bid.

Over the last one year, Airtel said it has also cleared Rs 24,333.7 crore of its deferred spectrum liabilities much ahead of scheduled maturities.

Indian government bonds may be added to a global index next year, triggering passive inflows of about $30 billion that will help the country to finance its current account and fiscal deficits, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The nation’s sovereign bonds may be added to JPMorgan’s GBI-EM Global Diversified bond index with an initial 10% weightage, analysts Danny Suwanapruti and Santanu Sengupta wrote in a note to clients. India’s $1 trillion sovereign bond market is one of the biggest among emerging markets not to be part of any global index.

Goldman’s optimism comes even as the index inclusion has largely gone on the back burner after New Delhi desisted from making any tax changes for foreigners that would have helped Indian bonds settlement on international clearing platforms like Euroclear. The analysts wrote that both Chinese and Indonesian government bonds though not Euroclearable are part of the JPMorgan index.

“Adding India, which is a large, deep and high-yielding market, would help to diversify as well as boost the average yield of the overall index,” the analysts wrote. “Such a move would be beneficial to various stakeholders, including EM investors and the Indian government.”

Account openings for foreigners are still cumbersome in India but can be addressed by a longer lead time for inclusion, according to the note. The country has also made some progress on operational issues, like posting margin requirements and extended settlement timings, the analysts wrote.

Government bond yields fell sharply and the rupee notched up hefty gains on Wednesday as a steep decline in crude oil prices over the last few days eased concerns over high domestic inflation and India’s trade deficit, dealers said.

A decline in domestic headline retail inflation to a five-month low in July also bolstered the appetite for bonds, dealers said.

Yield on the 10-year benchmark 6.54 per cent 2032 paper was last at 7.21 per cent, 8 basis points lower than previous close.

Bond prices and yields move inversely. A decline of one basis point on the 10-year bond yield corresponds to a rise in price of around 7 paise.

At 10:00 am IST, the rupee was at 79.29 per US dollar as against 79.66 at previous close.

Bond and currency markets resumed trading on Wednesday after an extended weekend break as markets were shut on Monday and Tuesday for Independence Day and Parsi New Year, respectively.

Brent crude futures plummeted around 3 per cent on Tuesday, dropping to 6-month lows, as concerns over slowing global economic growth reduced demand for the commodity.

The most active Brent crude contract rose marginally on Wednesday, trading 0.1 per cent higher at $92.47 per barrel by 0035 GMT, Reuters reported.

From a 14-year high of around $140 per barrel in March, crude oil prices have cooled significantly, easing the pressure on India’s import bill and inflation.

“Rupee has opened on a stronger note today following a more than 5 percent decline in crude oil prices over the long weekend and the current risk on sentiment leading to a rally in US and Indian equities but expect some pressure on rupee from a weakening yuan,” Mecklai Financial Services wrote.