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The euro rose to a four-month high against the dollar on Wednesday on hopes European Union leaders may agree on stimulus and deepening fiscal integration to shield the economy from the pandemic.

The dollar was on the defensive, particularly against other growth-leveraged currencies such as the Australian dollar, following an uptick in U.S. inflation and news of progress in vaccine development for COVID-19.

The euro rose to $1.1400 (EUR=), after reaching its highest level since March 10 at $1.1423 earlier in the trade.

Against the yen, the common currency hit one-month high of 122.47 (EURJPY=) while it had scaled a two-week high of $0.91125 British pound the previous day and last stood at 90.690 pence (EURGBP=D4).

"Germany, France and Italy have all taken severe lockdown steps and as a result the coronavirus now appears to be under control. The economy could be gradually recovering," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo Branch manager of State Street (NYSE:STT) Bank and Trust.

The euro has been helped by hopes the European Union could agree at its summit later this week on a rescue financing package that will limit the economic damage to the bloc from the coronavirus pandemic.

The euro's strength helped to push the dollar index (=USD) to one-month low at 96.056. The index last stood at 96.225.

The dollar extended losses on Tuesday after U.S. consumer prices rebounded 0.6% month-on-month, the most in nearly eight years, in June, easing worries about deflationary pressures from the economic downturn.

Further boosting investors' risk appetite, Moderna Inc's (O:MRNA) experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed it was safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers in an ongoing early-stage study, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.

Against that backdrop, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose 0.24% to $0.6992 .

Sterling, however, underperformed after data showed Britain's economy was recovering more slowly than forecast.

Gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in May after falling by a record 20.8% in April, well below forecasts in a Reuters poll.

The pound last traded at $1.2567 .

The yen stood at 107.28 yen per dollar , little changed after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and maintained its stance that the economy would gradually recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market has so far taken the latest heightening in U.S.-China tensions in its stride.

President Donald Trump signed legislation and an executive order to hold China "accountable" for the national security law it imposed on Hong Kong.

Trump also signed a bill approved by the Congress to penalise banks doing business with Chinese officials who implement the new security law.

In response, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Wednesday it will impose retaliatory sanctions on U.S. individuals and entities.

"While there are increasing doubts on whether Hong Kong will remain an open market, investors think this is a very long-term issue," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui (NYSE:SMFG) Trust Bank.

Diplomatic battles between the two big powers have intensified on several other fronts, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, military operations in the South China Sea and trade.

The onshore yuan ticked up 0.05% to 7.0040 per dollar

The Canadian dollar bounced back from a two-week low, changing hands at C$1.3604 per U.S. dollar , despite the prospect of travel restrictions between Canada and the United States being extended.

The Canadian central bank is expected to leave rates on hold at a policy announcement on Wednesday, with investors likely to focus on the bank's outlook for the economy and potential guidance on its bond-buying program.

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The dollar has gained some buyers in early European trade Thursday, as tensions between China and the U.S. flared up again overnight, but gains against the euro have been limited ahead of the European Central Bank meeting.

At 3:10 AM ET (0710 GMT), the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, stood at 97.502, up 0.3%. However, the index is still down about 5% from its March peak, when the coronavirus pandemic had caused a sprint to this safe haven.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 109.03, GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2533 and EUR/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.1210.

Overnight, the U.S. administration suspended flights into its country by Chinese airlines effective from June 16, reciprocating after China had barred American carriers from entering its airspace.

Relations between the two countries soured after China’s approval of the enactment of national security laws in Hong Kong and Macau last month.

Still, EUR/USD remains above the 1.12 level that it broke through on Wednesday for the first time since mid-March. 

The currency has been bolstered by hopes for European Union-wide fiscal support measures after Germany last month threw its weight behind the idea of a European Union recovery fund, breaking away from its long-held tradition to resist moves towards fiscal integration in the currency bloc.

This prompted the European Commission to propose a 750 billion euro recovery fund, with the money divided into 500 billion euros given to EU countries as grants and the remaining 250 billion euros would be available as loans. 

The European Central Bank had been undertaking a lot of the heavy lifting needed to support the region’s weakest economies prior to this, and is still expected to offer up more largesse later Thursday.

"I suspect the market has already priced in an increase of about 500 billion in the PEPP and in the near-term, there is risk of a correction," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

"The market could react positively if the ECB expands the target of its bond purchase or scrap its limit on each country. But in terms of the total size, it is hard to expect a positive surprise now," he said.

The ECB delivers its policy decision at 1145 GMT and ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a news conference at 1230 GMT.

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The dollar was up on Thursday morning, with investors turning to the safe-haven asset as U.S.-China tensions flared up overnight.

In its latest move, the U.S. suspended flights into the U.S. by Chinese airlines effective from June 16 after China barred American carriers from re-entering China.

Relations between the two countries soured after China approved the enactment of national security laws in Hong Kong and Macau last month.

Hong Kong’s Legislative Council has started voting on national anthem bill, a precursor to the national security laws.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies gained 0.21% to 97.465 by 12:12 AM ET (5:12 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair was up 0.11% to 109 and the USD/CNY pair was up 0.20% to 7.1260.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.33% to 0.6896. Australia’s Bureau of Statistics said earlier in the day that retail sales for April fell by a seasonally adjusted 17.7% in April.

The bureau also said that GDP fell 0.3% during the first quarter of 2020 on Wednesday.

The NZD/USD pair slid 0.09% to 0.6413 and the GBP/USD pair lost 0.28% to 1.2536.

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The U.S. dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia after increasing optimism over a global economic recovery from COVID-19 increased investor risk appetite.

Investors focused on countries continuing to loosen lockdown measures and restarting their economies, despite the ever-growing number of COVID-19 cases and no cure.

There are almost 6.4 million global cases of the virus as of June 3, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies fell 0.24% to 97.427 by 11:49 PM ET (4:49 AM GMT) as investors retreated from the safe-haven asset.

“The U.S. dollar is generally weak... The economy recovery story is the main factor.

The USD/JPY pair was down 0.05% to 108.61. The yen is also considered a safe-haven asset.

The USD/CNY pair rose 0.16% to 7.1107. China’s Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading for May was 55, indicating a return to growth for the country’s services sector for the first time since January.

The AUD/USD pair gained 0.66% to 0.6939 even after the Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s GDP fell 0.3% during the first quarter of 2020.

Daiwa Securities’ Ishizuki remained optimistic about the AUD, saying that “The Australian dollar has a lot of room to run because there are still a lot of shorts that need to be covered.”

The NZD/USD pair rose 0.71% to 0.6413 and the GBP/USD pair gained 0.31% to 1.2588.

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Traders in India are yearning for the central bank to backstop the rupee and sovereign-bond markets after Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit rating to the lowest investment grade.

“This is definitely not welcome news and we could see some more foreign outflows,” said Ashish Vaidya, head of trading at DBS Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “There will be a knee-jerk selloff in the rupee and bonds but we expect the RBI to jump in to curb any bouts of undue volatility.”

India’s long-term foreign-currency credit rating was cut to Baa3 from Baa2, Moody’s said in a late evening statement on Monday, citing policy challenges in addressing a prolonged slowdown and the deteriorating fiscal position. The outlook remains negative, it said.

The cut brings Moody’s rating on India on par with S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings Ltd., both of which have a BBB- rating. Any downgrade by S&P and Fitch will hurt flows to a nation that relies on imported capital to fund investment. Already, global funds have yanked $14 billion from rupee bonds this year, the highest in emerging Asia.

READ: Foreigners Feel India’s Bonds Just When It Needs Them Most

An RBI spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

“The RBI will have to come out with an explicit support for the bond market after this development, otherwise it’s going to be very tough,” said Vijay Sharma, executive vice president for fixed-income at PNB Gilts Ltd. He expects benchmark yields to climb by 15-20 basis points on Tuesday,

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The dollar was on the defensive on Tuesday as investors stuck to hopes of a global economic recovery despite heightened concerns over U.S.-China tensions and mass protests in many U.S. cities over the death of a black man in police custody.

The U.S. dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies (=USD) stood at its weakest level since mid-March, at 97.790.

The euro fetched $1.11295 (EUR=), little changed so far on Tuesday but holding near a 2-1/2-month high of $1.1154 touched on Monday.

Sterling traded at $1.2491 , having hit a one-month high of $1.2506.

U.S. manufacturing activity eased off an 11-year low in May and although the reading was weaker than forecast, it fit into markets' expectations that the worst of the economic downturn was behind as businesses reopen.

"There are some potential flash points such as U.S. demonstrations and China-U.S. tensions. But, on the whole, the market is still moderately risk-on," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

Against the safe-haven yen, the dollar was at 107.57 yen , stuck in a well-worn range between 106 and 108 over the last several weeks.

President Donald Trump said on Monday he was deploying thousands of heavily armed soldiers and law enforcement to halt violence in the U.S. capital and vowed to do the same in other cities if mayors and governors fail to regain control of the streets.

The protests erupted over the death of George Floyd, a 46-year-old African-American who died in Minneapolis police custody after being pinned beneath a white officer's knee for nearly nine minutes.

Market risk sentiment was hurt only slightly on Monday when Bloomberg reported that China had told state-owned firms to halt purchases of soybeans and pork from the United States, raising concerns that the trade deal between the world's two biggest economies could be in jeopardy.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy bet on the strength of the Chinese economy, fetched $0.6794 , having reached its highest levels since late January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets later on Tuesday.

The Chinese yuan stood flat at 7.1230 per dollar in offshore trade, near its highest levels in almost two weeks.

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The dollar was on the defensive on Tuesday as investors stuck to hopes of a global economic recovery despite heightened concerns over U.S.-China tensions and mass protests in many U.S. cities over the death of a black man in police custody.

The U.S. dollar's index against a basket of six major currencies (=USD) stood at its weakest level since mid-March, at 97.790.

The euro fetched $1.11295 (EUR=), little changed so far on Tuesday but holding near a 2-1/2-month high of $1.1154 touched on Monday.

Sterling traded at $1.2491 , having hit a one-month high of $1.2506.

U.S. manufacturing activity eased off an 11-year low in May and although the reading was weaker than forecast, it fit into markets' expectations that the worst of the economic downturn was behind as businesses reopen.

"There are some potential flash points such as U.S. demonstrations and China-U.S. tensions. But, on the whole, the market is still moderately risk-on," said Kyosuke Suzuki, director of forex at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

Against the safe-haven yen, the dollar was at 107.57 yen , stuck in a well-worn range between 106 and 108 over the last several weeks.

President Donald Trump said on Monday he was deploying thousands of heavily armed soldiers and law enforcement to halt violence in the U.S. capital and vowed to do the same in other cities if mayors and governors fail to regain control of the streets.

The protests erupted over the death of George Floyd, a 46-year-old African-American who died in Minneapolis police custody after being pinned beneath a white officer's knee for nearly nine minutes.

Market risk sentiment was hurt only slightly on Monday when Bloomberg reported that China had told state-owned firms to halt purchases of soybeans and pork from the United States, raising concerns that the trade deal between the world's two biggest economies could be in jeopardy.

The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy bet on the strength of the Chinese economy, fetched $0.6794 , having reached its highest levels since late January.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets later on Tuesday.

The Chinese yuan stood flat at 7.1230 per dollar in offshore trade, near its highest levels in almost two weeks.

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Forecasters are calling for a second-quarter GDP contraction of at least 30%, according to the Blue Chip survey, while the model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (GDPNow) calls for an much steeper 52% retrenchment. Yet, the S&P 500 index is down less than 7% this year after rallying more than 35% from its low point of March 23. There seems to be a huge disparity between the economy and the stock market.

There is a way to reconcile both numbers, however, if the economy turns around quickly and ends up the year nearly unchanged. In that case, the stock market rally would be justified and could even have some more room to go. Admittedly, this seems hard to believe right now. But is it possible?

Current economic numbers look decidedly dismal. As I showed in my previous post, some have shattered records by huge margins. Second-quarter GDP forecasts are correspondingly bleak. The contraction estimated by the GDPNow model is much worse than the Blue Chip average, but with numbers that large, the margin of error is certainly huge.

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 The safe-haven yen gained sharply, but the dollar held onto hefty overnight gains against other currencies on Wednesday, as fears over the coronavirus pandemic kept markets frazzled despite massive injections of liquidity by central banks.

The yen JPY= rose 0.8% to 106.80 per dollar with a flight to safety in the Asia afternoon as stock markets around the region extended losses. MKTS/GLOB

The pound and euro were ahead, but struggled to win back more than a fraction of the ground ceded to the dollar on Tuesday. The Aussie and kiwi languished below 60 cents.

Markets have crumbled this month as investors liquidated nearly everything for cash - driving up the dollar's value and the cost of borrowing the greenback abroad.

"Funding strains are still there, and I think that is what's spooking the market still," said Moh Siong Sim, currency analyst at the Bank of Singapore.

The world is adopting a war footing as the pandemic spreads and country after country announces draconian lockdowns. The virus has killed over 8,000 people globally, while the total number of cases is approaching 200,000, a Reuters tally shows.

While crisis is also being met with massive fiscal and monetary policy measures, there are only tentative signs that it is working.

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday made its biggest injection of dollar funds since 2008, helping to reduce the cost of dollars, relfected in cross-currency basis swap spreads. spread on dollar/yen swaps JPYCBS3M= narrowed to around -58 basis points from 120 basis points on Tuesday.

Three-month euro/dollar cross-currency basis swap spreads EURCBS3M=ICAP had also fallen back overnight to 39 basis points from as high as 120 basis points.

But it failed to improve market sentiment.

"The newsflow is about as fluid as we have seen," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.

"It mirrors that of the (2008) financial crisis if not worse ... it's very difficult to deal with this and I think FX traders don't really know where to look at the moment."

The pound GBP= pared some gains to sit 0.4% higher at $1.2094 and the euro EUR= was steady at $1.1007.

Export exposed currencies fared much worse.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 has lost nearly 15% against the greenback this year and fell below 60 cents for the first time since 2003 overnight. It last stood at $0.5930, while the kiwi NZD=D3 was $0.5942.

Traders have also been watching volatility in the U.S. Treasury market to get a sense of the demand for dollars.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR soared 34 basis points overnight, the largest single-day rise since 2004. US/

"It all stems from a shortage of US dollars," said Gunter Seeger, senior vice president in investment-grade fixed income at New York asset manager PineBridge Investments.

"People are very, very nervous," Seeger said.

"Everyone's nervous about the virus, about oil prices, about their job, about everything."

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