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Markets to make a positive
start reacting to assembly results and IIP data
The
Indian markets before going for a long weekend made a flat closing with a
positive bias. Today, the start is likely to be in green and the traders will
be rejoicing the assembly election outcome, which was mostly on the expected
lines. A strong election win in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh has raised
the probability of the BJP winning the 2019 general elections as well, putting
sense of stability among investors. Traders are also likely to get support from
the economy front, where the industrial production bounced back into expansion
in January, kicking off the financial year’s last quarter on a positive note.
The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January from a year ago,
the second fastest monthly growth this financial year. However, there will be
some cautiousness too, with the RBI warning of a possible spike in inflation
and stressing the need to make digital payments “safe and secure”, even as it
felt that the adverse and transient impact on the economy has “by and large”
dissipated already. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data to be released
later in the day for further cues. The banking stocks will keep buzzing, as the
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has discussed options on resolution of bad loans
with RBI Governor Urjit Patel and other top officials in finance ministry but
creation of a 'bad bank' to hold such loans seemed not on top of alternatives.
Indian benchmarks end
marginally higher ahead of assembly elections results
Indian
benchmark indices give up most of their early gains to close marginally higher
on Friday, amid profit taking in selective frontline stocks. Today’s session
largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved
only sideways in a tight band ahead of Assembly poll results of five states on
Saturday. Sentiments got some support after various exit polls suggested the
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may comfortably
cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to
it. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain
power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. Further,
investors got some comfort with the report that the government's revenue
collection from indirect tax during April-February grew by an impressive 22.2%,
while that of direct tax rose by 10.7%. Total direct and indirect tax
collections at February end stood at Rs 13.89 lakh crore, 81.5% of the target
of Rs 16.99 lakh crore, as per the revised estimate for 2016-17.
However,
gains remained capped with CRISIL’s report that a revival in private sector
investment cycle is likely to be deferred to fiscal 2019 as there is ample
headroom in capacity utilization, stretched balance sheets and just a moderate
pick-up in demand. In the next fiscal year ending March 2018, CRISIL predicts
only a mild recovery due to an absence of fiscal and monetary stimuli and
unsupportive global environment. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks gained traction on
the report that the government is set to go for 5G spectrum auction this year
-making an early move to initiate rollout of latest communications
technologies. The government will also go for a fresh auction in 700 MHz band,
which drew a blank last year as companies complained of high reserve price.
Further, some auto stocks surged after the Vehicle sales across categories
registered a marginal increase at 17,19,699 units in February 2017 from
17,03,736 in the same month last year. Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose by
9.01% y-o-y to 255,359 units in February, while Sales of commercial vehicles
moved up 7.34% to 66,939 units in February. On the other hand, shares of gold
loan companies like Manappuram Finance edged lower after the Reserve Bank of
India (RBI) said NBFCs cannot lend more than Rs 20,000 in cash against gold.
Earlier, NBFCs were allowed to disburse high value loans of Rs 1 lakh and above
against gold only through cheque.
Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday
The US
markets closed mostly higher on Monday, as investors refrained from making
sizable bets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is widely expected to
deliver an interest-rate increase. With no economic data, investors were
instead focusing on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that
kicks off Tuesday. Investors will be eager to glean signals about the timing
and pace of future rate increases from the FOMC’s policy statement. The market
is pricing in about three rate increases of a quarter of a percentage point
each for 2017. The market sees an 88.6% probability that the policy-setting
Federal Open Market Committee will vote for an interest-rate Wednesday,
according to data from the CME Group. Expectations for a rate increase were
cemented after solid February nonfarm-payroll data on Friday. According to a
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released showed that a measure of US
inflation expectations mostly flattened in February after having risen in the
previous two months. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly
influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, showed that year-ahead
inflation expectations were flat at 3 percent last month. The three-year ahead
reading edged up to 3 percent, from 2.9 percent in January.
The Nasdaq
was up 14.05 points or 0.24 percent to 5,875.78, S&P 500 gained 0.87 points
or 0.04 percent to 2,373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.5
points or 0.10 percent to 20,881.48.
January IIP surges to 2.7% against -0.4% in December
In a
positive surprise, industrial output rose to 2.7% in January as compared to
-0.4% in December. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2016-17
over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.6 percent.
Govt releases the draft rules for security of prepaid
payment instruments
In a bid to
make electronic payments more secure, the government has released the draft
rules for transactions made through prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) like
mobile wallets, smart cards and paper vouchers. The draft IT (Security of
Prepaid Payment Instruments) Rules 2017, formulated by the Ministry of
Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) will ensure adequate integrity,
security and confidentiality of electronic payments effected through PPIs. Till
date, these instruments are not governed by norms or rules, as far as cyber
security issues are concerned.
As per the
draft rules, the PPIs need to ensure end-to-end encryption of the data
exchanged. Besides, the e-PPI issuers should assist customers with regard to
secure use of the prepaid payment instruments and should have a privacy policy
posted on its website.
They will
also have to appoint a chief grievance officer, whose contact details will have
to be prominently displayed on the website and procedure by which customers or
any other person who suffers as a result of violation of these rules can make
complaints to the Grievance Officer.
Furthermore,
the PPI issuer will also need to establish a mechanism for monitoring, handling
and follow-up of any cyber incidents and breaches. The rules also specify that
every wallet issuer should review its security measures at least once a year,
and after any major security incident or breach, or before a major change to
its infrastructure or procedures. The last date for submittingcomments on the
draft is March 20.
Indian govt continue to engage with Trump administration
on H1B visa issue
In order to
ease the worries of Indian professionals over H1B visa, the government has said
that the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and added that
they would continue to engage with both members of the US administration as
well as members of the US Congress on their interests and concerns pertaining
to not just H1B visa but other issues as well.
Talking on
the discussions held between Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar with his interlocutors in the US last week, External Affairs Ministry
Spokesperson Gopal Baglay has said that there was a strong recognition as well
as respect for Indian skills and contribution of the Indian technological
manpower to the US economy. He also said it has been India's view that the
presence of skilled Indian professionals is positive for the US economy as
well, particularly when the US seeks to build a stronger economy. He pointed
out that there are other advantages from the presence of Indian professionals
in the US like backward linkages.
Calling the
H1B visas a trade and business issue, Baglay further said that their views have
been clearly conveyed to the concerned US interlocutors. He also said that the
government believes that the plans of the US Administration for the US economy
present an opportunity for the two countries to further consolidate their
strong economic partnership.