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Banking sector research report-Sharetipsinfo

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As per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s banking sector is sufficiently capitalised and well-regulated. The financial and economic conditions in the country are far superior to any other country in the world. Credit, market and liquidity risk studies suggest that Indian banks are generally resilient and have withstood the global downturn well.

Indian banking industry has recently witnessed the roll out of innovative banking models like payments and small finance banks. The central bank granted in-principle approval to 11 payments banks and 10 small finance banks in FY 2015-16. RBI’s new measures may go a long way in helping the restructuring of the domestic banking industry.

Market Size

The Indian banking system consists of 26 public sector banks, 25 private sector banks, 43 foreign banks, 56 regional rural banks, 1,589 urban cooperative banks and 93,550 rural cooperative banks, in addition to cooperative credit institutions. Public-sector banks control nearly 80 percent of the market, thereby leaving comparatively much smaller shares for its private peers. Banks are also encouraging their customers to manage their finances using mobile phones.

Standard & Poor’s estimates that credit growth in India’s banking sector would improve to 11-13 per cent in FY17 from less than 10 per cent in the second half of CY14.

Healthy Growth of Banking Sector - Deposits

  • During FY06–16, deposits grew at a CAGR of 11.47 per cent and reached 1.46 trillion in FY16.
  • Strong growth in savings amid rising disposable income levels are the major factors influencing deposit growth.
  • Deposits under PradhanMantri Jan DhanYojana (PMJDY), have also increased. As of October 2016, US$ 6,755.5 million were deposited, while 249.8 million accounts were opened.

Healthy Growth of Banking Sector - Credit

  • Credit off-take has been surging ahead over the past decade, aided by strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing consumerism and easier access to credit.
  • In March FY16, total credit extended surged to US$ 1,016 billion.
  • Demand has grown for both corporate and retail loans; particularly the services, real estate, consumer durables and agriculture allied sectors have led the growth in credit.

Offers protection in adverse conditions.

Our initial study of PradhanMantriFasalBimaYojana (PMFBY) shows it offers hope to banks lending to agriculture in adverse conditions. The new scheme has seen ~100% increase in the sum insured in FY2017, greater interest from private insurance players and higher participation of farmers. Strict timelines, mandatory use of technology and a relatively transparent mechanism amenable to quick/easy audits could effectively reduce the risk of sharp rise in impairments for banks. 

Significant increase in outlay; more than the cumulative allocation in all previous years

There are some positive signs that the lending to agriculture is taking a better form that should lower the “volume” risk associated to famers as new schemes offer greater protection. The government has modified the crop insurance program under the new scheme, PMFBY, which is seeing greater levels of participation by all segments. The government has budgeted to spend `130 bn in FY2017 for the scheme as compared to the initial budget of `55 bn, which is ~6X increase over FY2016 and similar to the total funds allocated to the scheme since FY1997. The budget for FY2018 is lower at `90 bn but we wait to see the year end given that the focus is to increase the area under the scheme to ~50% over the next two years from ~25% currently.

100% increase in sum insured gives comfort, but a few more years needed to ensure stability

We are seeing some early success of the scheme as there has been more than 100% growth in premium in FY2017 across key players like Agriculture Insurance Corporation, ICICI Lombard,HDFC Ergo. The total sum insured has doubled in the Kharif crop for 2016 to `1.4 tn and one should expect this to have increased further as some bottlenecks resulted in select states that did not implement it last year. The government is extending this scheme for non-loan farmers as well giving a wider business opportunity for private insurers. FY2017 may not be a good test case as there is likely to be lower claims given the bountiful rainfall witnessed. Private insurance companies gave away a substantial portion of risk to reinsurers and we need a stronger reinsurance market till market players get confident in the underlying data.

Banks stand to benefit as well; a weak monsoon is probably of lesser concern

The key objective of the note is to understand the impact on bank’s portfolio given the spate of debt waiver announcements. In a prudish manner, the success of this scheme will imply that volume related risks have been taken away. This also implies banks are relatively better off during the weak monsoon but a surplus monsoon, as in FY2017 creates ‘price-risk’ where the current solution is not effective. A strong commodity derivatives market along with adequate infrastructure for post-harvest storage could be useful to address a part of these risks.


Key investments and developments in India’s banking industry include:

  • RBL Bank Limited, an Indian private sector bank, has raised Rs 330 crore (US$ 49.6 million) from a UK-based development finance institution CDC Group Plc, which will help RBL to strengthen the capital base to meet future requirements.
  • The State Bank of India (SBI) signed an agreement with The World Bank for aRs 4,200 crore (US$ 625 million) credit facility, aimed at financing grid connected rooftop solar photovoltaic (GRPV) projects in India.
  • JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in United States by assets, plans to expand its operations in India by opening three new branches in Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai in addition to its existing branch in Mumbai.
  • Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), an investment management company, has bought a large stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd from Japan-based Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
  • India’s first small finance bank called the Capital Small Finance Bank has started its operations by launching 10 branch offices in Punjab, and aims to increase the number of branches to 29 in the current FY 2016-17.
  • FreeCharge, the wallet company owned by online retailer Snapdeal, has partnered with Yes Bank and MasterCard to launch FreeCharge Go, a virtual card that allows users to pay for goods and services at online shops and offline retailers.
  • Exim Bank of India and the Government of Andhra Pradesh has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to promote exports in the state.
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited has bought 19.9 per cent stake in Airtel M Commerce Services Limited (AMSL) for Rs 98.38 crore (US$ 14.43 million) to set up a payments bank. AMSL provides semi-closed prepaid instrument and offers services under the ‘Airtel Money’ brand name.
  • Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd, a microfinance services company, has raised Rs 312.4 crore (US$ 45.84 million) in a private placement from 33 domestic investors including mutual funds, insurance firms, family offices and High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs)).
  • India's largest public sector bank, State Bank of India (SBI), has opened its first branch dedicated to serving start-up companies, in Bengaluru.
  • Global rating agency Moody's has upgraded its outlook for the Indian banking system to stable from negative based on its assessment of five drivers including improvement in operating environment and stable asset risk and capital scenario.


Indian Pharma Sector-Research Report-Sharetipsinfo

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Indian Pharma Market remains sluggish; focus now shifts to GST impact

* The Indian Pharma Market’s (IPM) growth remained subdued in May’17, with the overall growth rate at 7%. We attribute the ongoing slowdown partly due to the continuing government intervention in the sector.

* The key reasons for the poor sector growth has been the declining price growth and softer volume growth. Declining price growth is attributed to the crackdown on FDCs (Fixed Dosage Combinations) where companies had greater leeway in pricing.

* Weak volume growth in the past has been a function of anemic economic activity. We believe some of the recent tepid volume trend may also be due to demonetization.

* The past 3 years’ data clearly shows that price growth has declined in the Indian market since early CY16 and is now the lowest for nearly 18 months. This despite the WPI index (on which price revisions are indexed) rising over the same period. We believe that the weakness in price growth seems to have coincided with the government’s unsuccessful crackdown on FDCs, which constitute c45% of the IPM by value. While the move was stayed by courts, our discussions with industry players clearly indicate that most companies are now trying to move away from the lucrative FDC-led growth model. We believe this has had a significant impact on the overall price growth in the sector.

* Surprisingly, volume growth has also been sluggish. Overall volume growth, which averaged well over 5-5.5% in CY16, is well below 3% in YTD CY17. Weak volume growth usually is accompanied by either muted economic growth or poor underlying wage growth. The only data shoring up the overall IPM seems to be NI growth, which though trending downward, is still healthy at c5%. We have detailed the impact on continuing govt. led crackdown impacting sector growth in our note titled Healthcare industry in government crosshairs dated 5th May 2017.

* We believe that the street would focus on the extent of disturbance caused by the impending GST implementation and its impact on the industry growth. This would last only for a quarter, but post that we expect focus to return to whether IPM growth can revert to mid-teens, which given the above data appears difficult. We believe that in the medium term, the overall IPM growth would be sluggish for most companies.

* May 2017: Domestic pharma market grew by 7% (as per IMS)

* IPM reported sales of Rs97.6bn in May’17, a growth of 7% against 6% in Apr’17.

US FDA shows it has a bark and a bite

* New US FDA commissioner acts on his promise to limit access to opioid substances by requesting Endo Pharma to withdraw opioid brand Opana ER from the market

* The new regime at FDA had specifically highlighted abuse of opioid medicines and faster generic approval timelines with lower backlogs as key targets for the agency

* Indian generic industry has limited exposure to Opioids space but with the agency showing that it is serious about pursuing its agenda, should be cause for concern for the entire generic industry from an increasing competitiveness perspective.



The US FDA last week has asked Endo Pharma (ENDO) to withdraw its opioid painkiller Opana ER (oxymorphone hydrochloride) from the market on the grounds that risks from the product far outweigh its benefits (Link here). Opioid addiction is a public healthcare crises in USA where by painkiller/controlled substances are often misused for addiction. To put this in context, in India similar reasons have been expounded by the government in order to restrict or ban (unsuccessfully) certain codeine based syrups.

* While the Indian generic companies has limited exposure to Opioid business (largely with SUNP and CDH), the development is still very important from the perspective of the US FDA getting more serious on the issues it has highlighted to resolve. The new US FDA commissioner Scott Gotlieb has been quite vocal on two specific issues 1). To limit or restrict access to Opioid drugs in order to contain the opioid epidemic plaguing US healthcare system & 2).to get the FDA to step up the pace of generic approvals including streamlining the approval process to allow ANDA filings to jump queues, prioritize ANDA applications where drug costs are high, eliminate within a year the backlog of 2640 generic drug applications etc. We have written extensively on this earlier in our note titled Radical moves by new US FDA head for shorter generic timelines dated June 7, 2017.

* While ENDO likely to explore legal options in order to continue the Opana franchise, the FDA acting against Endo shows its strong intent to pursue the objectives set out under the new regime at the agency. Note that this is the first time that FDA has taken steps to remove a currently marketed opioid product from the market place.


Have a Nice Day  !!

US stocks hit new highs even as Trump reforms see little progress, while oil hits fresh 6 month low. Globally this week to see decision on Brexit and Trump legislation-could be decisive for market trend going forward.

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Major headlines:

·         Trade partners worried over cash flow in run up to GST

·         Asia stocks shake off Wall Street blues, sterling steady before Brexit talks

·         India to allow late filling in first two months of GST


Indian Indices: Asian markets opened in the green led by the Japanese 'Nikkei", which traded above 20000 as the weaker ‘Yen’ aided gains. With important decisions like Brexit and Trump legislation, this week could be decisive in marking the market trend for the next few weeks and months.

Nifty saw weakness creep in the second half as Pharma, IT and Metals counters dragged the Nifty lower. This week could see Nifty break the small range it has been in for over 3 weeks as global and local cues emanate a decisive trend. For today expect Financials, Banks and Auto stocks to see buying while Pharma and IT to remain under pressure.  

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31184.44, up by 128.04 points or 0.41% after trading in a range of 31163.35 and 31247.69. There were 20 stocks advancing against 10 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index gained 0.08%, while Small cap index was up by 0.11%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9618.30, up by 30.25 points or 0.32% after trading in a range of 9618.25 and 9638.75. There were 32 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty is range bound between 9560-9660 and this week should see breakdown or breakout of the range. Bank Nifty also finds support around 23300 while 23750 acts as resistance, either side breakdown/out will see further direction.


COLPAL (BUY Above 1096 with Stop Loss at 1077.5 for Target of 1133): The stock has been consolidating for over seven trading sessions and has finally broken out from a Flag Pattern on the daily charts. The price outburst has been accompanied with credible volumes. Other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum is here to stay.


India’s forex reserves slipped USD11.5mn, to stand at USD381.156bn in the week to June 9. In the previous week, they had risen USD2.4bn to touch a record-high of USD381.167bn. Gold reserves remained unchanged at USD20.095bn. (BL)

The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has expressed its inability to meet its revenue target of Rs473.05bn for FY18 and has asked the finance ministry to revise the projection to Rs295.24bn almost a 40% fall. (BS)

Corporate India's mergers and acquisition deals stood at USD1.89bn in May, taking the year to date tally to USD35.44bn. (BL)


Net income tax collection till June 15 grew at a healthy 26.2% to Rs1.01trn from across the country as of June 15 this fiscal from Rs 800.75bn in the year ago period.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Adani Ports up by 1.98%, BhartiInfratel up by 1.88%, Reliance Industries up by 1.44%, Tata Steel up by 1.31% and TCS up by 1.27%. On the flip side, Cipla down by 1.43%, AurobindoPharma down by 1.24%, Yes Bank down by 1.17%, Lupin down by 1.11% and Tata Motors down by 1.02% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Energy up by 0.81%, FMCG up by 0.67%, Metal up by 0.60%, Telecom up by 0.57% and Consumer Durables up by 0.54%, while Realty down by 0.94% and Healthcare was down by 0.61% were the only losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly in green at this point of time, as traders took some comfort with a member of the US president’s legal team stating that President Donald Trump isn’t under investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller. The US markets ended modestly in red in the last session on another round of downbeat economic data.


Global Signals:Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index gained 7.75 points or 0.33% to 2,369.58, Jakarta Composite rose 13.49 points or 0.24% to 5,737.13, Shanghai Composite increased 20.61 points or 0.66% to 3,143.77, Taiwan Weighted surged 85.04 points or 0.84% to 10,241.77, Nikkei 225 added 129.58 points or 0.65% to 20,072.84 and Hang Seng was up by 241.53 points or 0.94% to 25,868.02.

On the flip side, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI was down by 2.72 points or 0.15% to 1,788.59.



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Major headlines

·         No plan to issue next list of defaulters any time soon

·         IT spend in indian banking and securities industry to grow 8.6% in 2017

·         TDP MP incident at Vizag airport to be probed

Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks remained range-bound in late afternoon session, though some good buying was being witnessed in Realty, FMCG and Consumer Durables stocks amid higher European markets. There was some optimism as India's exports grew 8.32 per cent to $24.01 billion in May, mainly on account of robust performance by sectors like petroleum, chemicals, engineering goods as well as gems and jewellery. 

Some support also came with the report that India has moved up six places from 66th in last year to reach 60th position in this year's Global Innovation Index (GII), an annual global ranking that assesses the innovation capabilities of 127 countries. 

However, gains were limited as the current account deficit (CAD) soared to $3.4 billion or 0.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017, from $0.3 billion a year ago. Meanwhile, India Inc's foreign investment witnessed a sharp 56 percent decline at $1.26 billion in May this year.

The BSE Sensex is currently shut down at 31056.40, down by 19.33 points or 0.06% after trading in a range of 31059.41 and 31182.73. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.18%, while Small cap index gained 0.36%.

The CNX Nifty is currently closed up at 9588.05, up by 10.00 points or 0.10% after trading in a range of 9575.40 and 9615.85. There were 29 stocks advancing against 21 stocks declining on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged.




Top Movers (Group A)





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CrporateFront: Following the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) identifying 12 accounts that are responsible for 25 per cent of non-performing assets (NPAs), the central bank on Friday said it has no plans to come out with a next list any time soon.
"If you look at it (NPAs), RBI had a detailed circular. Twelve cases have been referred for resolution by Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC). Other (bad loan) cases, banks are encouraged to resolve in six months' time," RBI Deputy Governor S.S. Mundra said.


Macroeconomic front: Dismissing all talk of job losses in Indian information technology (IT) industry as being "motivated", the government on Friday outlined its vision for building the sector into a $1 trillion economy by 2022 that would become a global hub of low-cost digital technology.
"There has been a lot of debate, and by any standards of economy, this talk of job decline in the IT sector is motivated," Electronics and Information Technology Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said while addressing the industry leaders at an event here to launch work on the blueprint to realise a $1 trillion IT economy.


On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in green as investors digested news of a fresh disbursement to Greece and focus on wider political events. Asian markets were also trading in green.  Back home, in scrip specific development, Filatex India jumped higher after the company completed financial closure with the lenders for Rupee and Foreign Currency Loan for capacity expansion project.

Commodity Updates:

Commodity Prices (MCX):



% Chang







Crude oil



Natural Gas









Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gainers on the Sensex were ITC up by 2.22%, Tata Motors up by 1.86%, GAIL India up by 1.02%, Axis Bank up by 0.81% and NTPC up by 0.69%. On the flip side, Lupin down by 4.41%, Wipro down by 1.97%, Cipla down by 1.80%, Sun PharmaInds. down by 1.61% and Dr. Reddys Lab down by 1.07% were the top losers.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Motors - DVR up by 2.69%, ITC up by 2.27%, Tata Motors up by 1.92%, AurobindoPharma up by 1.41% and BhartiInfratel up by 1.31%. On the flip side, Lupin down by 4.26%, Wipro down by 2.34%, Cipla down by 2.07%, Indiabulls Housing down by 1.91% and Sun PharmaInds. down by 1.60% were the top losers.


Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in green; KOSPI Index increased 0.18 points or 0.01% to 2,361.83, Hang Seng increased 61.15 points or 0.24% to 25,626.49, Taiwan Weighted increased 68.38 points or 0.68% to 10,156.73 and Nikkei 225 increased 111.44 points or 0.56% to 19,943.26. On the flip side, Jakarta Composite decreased 47.85 points or 0.83% to 5,728.43, Shanghai Composite decreased 9.32 points or 0.3% to 3,123.17 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 0.11 points or 0.01% to 1,789.90.

All European markets were trading in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 24.93 points or 0.34% to 7,444.29, France’s CAC increased 52.84 points or 1.01% to 5,269.72 and Germany’s DAX increased 56.1 points or 0.44% to 12,747.91.


US stocks recover losses as US Dollar regains strength while yields rise in tandem. Oil prices slump again as demand concerns see concerted weakness.

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Major headlines:

·         In latest sign of crude glut, ageing supertankers used to store unsold oil

·         India equity markets open marginally higher

·         Indian’s GST launch spawns tech cottage industry for compliance


Indian Indices: Asian indices opened in the green as overnight US stocks staged a sharp pull back even as Tech stocks saw weakness. The US Dollar rose along with bond yields while oil prices saw weakness. Friday will see quiet trade as the week will see most indices close with losses after almost 3 months of relentless gains.

Nifty saw selling from foreign investors get absorbed by local mutual funds as liquidity is seeing all minor corrections get bought into. FMCG and Pharma saw value buying while Auto, Banks and Media saw selling. For today expect more range bound consolidation with select pockets of mid-cap stocks/sector outperforming with Aviation stocks hitting fresh 52 week highs.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31128.69, up by 52.96 points or 0.17% after trading in a range of 31092.19 and 31182.73. There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.47%, while Small cap index gained 0.63%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9600.80, up by 22.75 points or 0.24% after trading in a range of 9593.00 and 9615.85. There were 32 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty did break the support around 9580 and tested 9560, which if broken can see Nifty test 9500 on the downside, while 9670 acts as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also saw a lower bottom around 23311 which if broken can see test of 23000, while 23700 will act as resistance on the upside.


Delta Corp (BUY Above 167 with Stop Loss at 163.5 for Target of 174): The stock has been in a strong recovery mode since hitting its 200-DMA in late May 2017. After consolidating for over three trading sessions the stock has broken out from a flag pattern on the hourly charts. The price outburst has also been accompanied with credible volumes. Other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum will further persist.


India’s current account deficit (CAD) in the fourth quarter widened to USD3.4bn, or 0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP), against USD0.3bn (0.1% of GDP) in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2015-16, owing to a widening trade deficit. (BS)

Petrol price was cut by Rs1.12/l and diesel by Rs1.24/l, the last of the fortnightly revisions after which daily correction in rates in step with cost will be implemented. (BS)

Country's trade deficit further widened to USD13.84bn in May, its highest in two-and-a-half years, on higher gold imports.

India Inc's foreign investment witnessed a sharp 56% decline at USD1.26bn in May this year.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were AurobindoPharma up by 2.51%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.05%, ITC up by 1.67%, Tata Motors up by 1.27% and Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.15%. On the flip side, Wipro down by 2.28%, Dr. Reddy’s Lab down by 1.23%, Lupin down by 1.13%, Bank of Baroda down by 0.97% and Cipla down by 0.95% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.48%, FMCG up by 0.83%, Consumer Durables up by 0.68%, Basic Materials up by 0.65% and Industrials up by 0.49%, while IT down by 0.51%, Healthcare down by 0.49% and TECK down by 0.33% were the only losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and offered a more upbeat view on private consumption and overseas economies, signaling its confidence that the recovery was gaining momentum. In a widely expected move, the BOJ maintained the 0.1 per cent interest it charges on a portion of the excess reserves that financial institutions park with the central bank.

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 2.63 points or 0.15% to 1,792.64, Taiwan Weighted increased 60.72 points or 0.6% to 10,149.07, Hang Seng increased 101.52 points or 0.4% to 25,666.86 and Nikkei 225 increased 148 points or 0.75% to 19,979.82.On the other hand, Jakarta Composite decreased 27.61 points or 0.48% to 5,748.67, Shanghai Composite decreased 9.35 points or 0.3% to 3,123.13 and KOSPI Index decreased 0.96 points or 0.04% to 2,360.69.


NBFC Sector research report=ICICI Prudential Life by Sharetipsinfo

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NBFC SectorOverview :

ICICI Prudential Life boosts industry growth.

ICICI Prudential Life delivered 100% individual APE growth in May 2017, pushing private sector growth to 46%, which would have been 30% otherwise. We expect ICICI Life’s high growth to moderate in 2HFY18 on a high base. On the other hand, HDFC Life’s low base will benefit from June 2017 leading to higher (20% yoy in May 2017) growth over the next 10 months. Other players continue to deliver steady (about 20-30%) growth.

High growth for most; ICICI Life pulls up industry growth rate

Most large private players reported 20-30% growth in APE; high growth at ICICI Prudential Life (up 100% yoy) lifted private sector individual APE growth to 46%; excluding ICICI Prudential Life, the rest of the private sector reported 30% individual APE growth. LIC remained muted at 5% yoy. Overall industry was up 24% in individual APE during the month.

ICICI Prudential Life will moderate in 2H

According to the management of ICICI Prudential Life, the business is now in a secular growth mode across channels and doing away with seasonal trends. While individual APE growth was 100%, ticket size growth in individual non-single segment was 52% yoy, flat qoq, i.e. about half its yoy growth was driven by volumes. The company reported Rs5.7 bn of individual APE in May 2017; it has maintained a run-rate of Rs5-6 bn since November 2017. ICICI Life’s management expects the run-rate to continue or trend up marginally throughout the year and as such yoy growth rate in 2H will be lower.

Behavioral pattern of deposits and interest rates is not straightforward

As against the expectations of a strong inverse correlation between savings deposit growth and interest rates and a positive correlation between growth in term deposits and interest rates, the data too are not playing out in India. Urban/metro region shows this relationship in savings but not term (see Exhibits 32-33). Rural and semi-urban shows in term deposits but not in savings (see Exhibits 28-31). We believe that a combination of new depositors coming to the fold, especially in rural and semi-urban as well as weak performance by nonhouseholds, especially in urban markets, could explain this contradiction.

20-30% growth in individual APE for most large players

* HDFC Life delivered 20% yoy growth, following a long period of subdued growth. Its base was a bit large at 43% growth in May 2016. The company has delivered average growth of 3% between June 2016 and March 2017. As such, we expect yoy growth rate to be significantly higher from June 2017 onwards. One of the reasons for low growth for HDFC Life was slowdown at HDFC Bank due to streamlining of its KYC process; this is now back on track. HDFC Bank’s partnership with Birla SL may take away some share of the banks franchise though the terms of the agreement are not yet clear.

* Max Life remains steady with 22% growth in May 2017; this compares with 25% growth in FY2017. Interestingly, its ticket size is reducing – down 11% yoy, 19% qoq. This may likely be due to increase in policies in the protection segment and lower share of unit-linked policies.

* Reliance Life delivered moderate (15%) growth; the company has been shifting its focus on traditional business from unit-linked policies leading to slow growth/yoy decline in last few months. Interestingly, the company reported 47% growth in average ticket size in the individual non-single segment even as its ticket size at Rs28,000 is lowest amongst large players.

* Bajaj Life and Birla SL remained strong with 67% and 32% growth respectively. Both reported about 35% growth in average ticket size.



Private sector up in group business; single business remains strong for LIC


LIC continues to have high share of single premium (81% in May 2017in its overall business)

; the ratio has been stable for last two years.


Private players have generally been selective in this segment; the share of single premium of private players was 40% in May 2017: 35-40% for last three years. The ratio has been highfor Bajaj Life, Birla SL and HDFC Life at about 60%.


In the group business, the share of private players has been stable at about 18-19%.

increased to 25% from 19% in the last two financial years. Bajaj Allianz Life lost share to

ICICI Prudential Lifeon mom basis.


Have a Nice Day  !!

Federal Reserve raises rates and indicates 1 more hike in 2017. Bond yields and oil fall to fresh 8 month lows as inflation falls and hurts growth prospects.

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Major headlines:

·         Bajaj Auto reduces bike prices

·         India South Korea sign $10 bn funding agreement for infra projects

·         Gold gains as stocks fall; weak U.S data spurs safe haven demand


Indian Indices: Asian indices opened mixed as oil weakness hurt the Australian index while the US Dollar rebound saw the Japanese 'Nikkei' open in the positive. With equity markets hitting fresh highs expect some consolidation as the US President Trump reforms agenda seems to get delayed and could see sentiment weaken.

Nifty saw a strong pullback mid session as investors bought Financials, PSU banks and Reality on the back of aggressive steps announced by Government on loan defaulters. Rupee strength, lower bond yields and inflation, all bode well for lending cycle to resume as credit growth still appears a lag indicator on the economy. 

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31164.72, up by 8.81 points or 0.03% after trading in a range of 31113.43 and 31229.44. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.15%, while Small cap index was up by 0.53%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9610.10, down by 8.05 points or 0.08% after trading in a range of 9589.40 and 9621.40. There were 20 stocks advancing against 31 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty has seen 9580 act as strong support on the downside while 9700 act a strong resistance on the upside. Break either side will see Nifty chart further course. Bank Nifty also sees support around 23350 while 23750 will act as resistance on the upside.


Godrej Properties (BUY Above 552 with Stop Loss at 542.5 for Target of 571): After consolidating in a narrow trading band for eight trading sessions, Godrej Properties has broken out from a channel pattern on the daily charts. The price volume breakout was witnessed after the stock bounced back convincingly from its 15-Day EMA support zone. Other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum is likely to extend.


The wholesale price index based inflation eased to 2.17% in May this year from 3.85% in April. The government is working on a proposal to merge the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) with Central Board for Excise and Customs (CBEC) to promote ease of doing business for exports and imports. (BL)

The Union Cabinet has decided to introduce a Financial Resolution and Deposit Insurance Bill to provide for a comprehensive resolution framework to deal with bankruptcy situation in banks, insurance companies and financial sector entities. (BL)

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) internal advisory committee (IAC) had identified 12 accounts that covered about 25% of the banking system’s non-performing assets for immediate resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. The Centre’s plans to shed stake in Air India, appear set for take off, if a Cabinet note is anything to go by.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were AurobindoPharma up by 5.41%, Dr. Reddy’s Lab up by 1.71%, Sun Pharma up by 1.68%, Cipla up by 1.19% and Reliance Industries up by 1.14%. On the flip side, BPCL down by 2.38%, GAIL India down by 1.63%, Coal India down by 1.34%, Indian Oil Corporation down by 1.32% and HCL Tech down by 1.18% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.36%, Healthcare up by 1.25%, Telecom up by 0.50%, Power up by 0.35% and FMCG up by 0.34%, while Oil & Gas down by 0.58%, PSU down by 0.35%, Bankex down by 0.28%, IT down by 0.28% and TECK down by 0.19% were the losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, with investors in Japan looking ahead to a central bank policy review to conclude on Friday. China’s central bank left interest rates for open market operations unchanged, shrugging off an overnight increase in the US Federal Reserve’s key policy rate. 

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 253.37 points or 0.98% to 25,622.53, Nikkei 225 decreased 58.31 points or 0.29% to 19,825.21, KOSPI Index decreased 14.03 points or 0.59% to 2,358.61, Jakarta Composite decreased 12.99 points or 0.22% to 5,779.91 and Shanghai Composite decreased 0.46 points or 0.01% to 3,130.21.On the other hand, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 0.39 points or 0.02% to 1,792.74 and Taiwan Weighted increased 2.46 points or 0.02% to 10,074.92.


US indices hit fresh highs as money rotates out of Tech and into Financials. US Dollar trends lower along with oil as Fed rate hike gets discounted today

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Major headlines:

·         Banks shares edge higher on RBI action on defaulters

·         Asia shares lag record Wall Street, Cautious of Fed plans

·         Gold edges higher, all eyes on Fed



Indian Indices: Asian markets open in the green as overnight positive US cues see value buying, however most await on the sideline as Fed meet today to be crucial. Overnight oil cooled off further while US bond yields also saw weakness. Globally investors turn cautious as overheating in equities sees little room for complacency.

Nifty saw second half weakness give away all the gains and end marginally in the red. Metals, Auto and select Energy stocks saw weakness while Reality, Financials and Pharma witnessed buying as the Nifty drifted after a firm opening. For today expect select buying in stock/sector specific while the index remains range bound. 

the S&P BSE Sensex, was up 15.24 points or 0.05% at 31,118.73. The Nifty 50 index was down 6.10 points or 0.06% at 9,600.80. Shares from cement and metal & mining sectors declined. Investors chose to stay on the sidelines and awaited clarity on the Federal Reserve's future path for US policy.

Domestic stocks saw a quiet start to the day's trading session with the key benchmark indices trading on a flat-to-positive note in early trade.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.35%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.04%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.





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Technical view: Nifty now finds support closer to 9580 which if broken can trigger a sharp fall while 9700 acts as strong resistance on the upside.



DHFL (BUY Above 441 with Stop Loss at 434.5 for Target of 454): The stock has been stuck in a trading range for over two weeks and has finally broken out from a consolidation pattern on the daily charts. The stock has surged smartly on the back of credible volumes. DHFL has rebounded from its short term moving averages support zone, which further accentuates our bullish stance on the stock.


The government is working on a new industrial policy with a view to promoting and developing frontier technologies, innovation and enhancing competitiveness of domestic products. (BL)

The statistics ministry is set to change the base year of national accounts to 2017-18 from 2011-12 after completion of the household consumer expenditure survey and labour force data by the end of 2018. (BS)

In the last trading session, markets gave away the opening gains and closed at the lowest point. Nifty 9500PE & 9700CE remained under selling pressure as the open interest continue to soar higher, indicating of the new floor and ceiling for Nifty during the June F&O expiry.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 312 Cr.FIIs index future long short ratio at 3.3 vs 4.3x.


Nifty Movers: Metal and mining stocks declined. Vedanta (down 1.3%), JSW Steel (down 0.23%), Tata Steel (down 0.97%), Steel Authority of India (Sail) (down 1.06%), Hindustan Zinc (down 1.15%), Jindal Steel & Power (down 1.55%), Hindalco Industries (down 1.55%) and NMDC (down 0.88%) edged lower. Hindustan Copper (up 1.96%) and National Aluminium Company (up 0.31%) rose.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: Copper edged lower in the global commodities market. High Grade Copper for July 2017 delivery was currently up 0.04% at $2.5975 per pound on the COMEX. Cement stocks declined. ACC (down 1.31%), Ambuja Cements (down 0.91%), UltraTech Cement (down 1.07%) and Shree Cement (down 0.37%) fell. Grasim Industries was off 0.21%. Grasim has exposure to the cement sector through its holding in UltraTech Cement.




On the global front: On the global front, Asian stocks were trading lower as investors awaited clarity on the Federal Reserve's future path for US policy after a likely rate rise later in the day. In US, the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at records yesterday, 13 June 2017, as technology shares rebounded following a two-day decline.


Global Signals: The US Federal Reserve's two-day meet ends today, 14 June 2017 and investors expect the central bank to raise interest rates for the third time since December. Super-low unemployment, gains in factory output and other economic data pointing to a recovery in the US economy have led investors to believe that the Fed will lift rates.



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Domestic Market View :

Market mood to remain cautious on the last trading day of week

The Indian markets showing a lackluster trade ended marginally in red in the last session. Today, the start is likely to remain cautious and traders will be eyeing the major global developments following the mixed cues after an exit poll suggested British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative party not getting majority. On the domestic front traders will be getting some support with UN trade report that despite stagnant foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $ 44 billion in 2016, India will most likely remain most favoured destination due to its attractiveness among MNCs for cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Meanwhile, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has expressed concern over growing protectionism in global markets and felt that India needs open markets to grow at 8-10%. He said that the biggest beneficiaries of the open market policy or globalisation have been middle income countries and the continuation of this is in their interest. There will be some buzz in the power and coal stocks on report that India’s coal imports in May declined 6 per cent due to lacklustre demand from the power sector and sufficient supply of domestic fuel.

Indian benchmarks settle with moderate losses; Nifty ends below 9650 mark

It turned out to be a lethargic performance from Indian benchmark indices on Thursday, as they failed to snap the session in the green territory and settled marginally below the neutral line. Today’s session largely remained characterized by choppiness, as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band for most part of the day, as investors and foreign funds were adopting a cautious approach, ahead of key political and economic events in the U.S. and Europe. Sentiments remained subdued after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised concerns over the possibility of fiscal slippages due to the farm loan waivers. RBI Governor Urjit Patel said unless that state governments' budgets allow that fiscal space to go in for a loan waiver, it would be risky to tread on that path. RBI also cut the economic growth projection to 7.3% for the current fiscal from 7.4% earlier. The central bank, however, used a less hawkish tone and reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) in its second bimonthly momany liquor stocks gained traction after Karnataka state government decided to send a proposal to the union government seeking to denotify the national highways (NH) pass through urban local bodies in Karnataka as local roads. Likewise, shares of steel companies were trading higher in an otherwise subdued market on the expectations of a revival in consumption during the current financial year 2017-18. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1328 shares on the gaining side against 1351 shares on the losing side, while 177 shares remained unchanged.netary policy for financial year 2017-18.

Traders turned anxious after chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian expressed his unhappiness over the Reserve Bank's inflexibility on interest rates. He warned that real policy rates are becoming tighter and rising at a time of low inflation and slowing growth. However, losses remained capped with UNCTAD’s latest report that India would be the top prospective foreign direct investment (FDI) destination globally after the US and China. It also said that an improved economic outlook in major Asian economies such as India, China is likely to lift investor confidence and help boost FDI inflows by about 15 percent in 2017


Global Market Overview 

Asian markets end mixed on Thursday

Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Thursday as investors awaited directional cues from three big upcoming events today and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its latest interest rate decision later today, with traders on the lookout for any hints of policy changes on rate and stimulus outlook. Polls have opened in the UK with the latest polls predicting a narrow victory for Theresa May's party over the main opposition Labour Party. Former FBI Director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee also remained in the spotlight after he confirmed media reports that President Donald Trump demanded his loyalty and asked him to drop at least part of the bureau's investigation of former National Security Adviser Mike Flyn. Japanese shares ended lower as the yen edged higher in late Asian deals on a report that the Bank of Japan was re-calibrating its communications to acknowledge it is thinking about how to handle a withdrawal from its monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, Chinese shares ended higher after Chinese exports and imports data topped expectations. Exports advanced 8.7 percent year-on-year in dollar terms in May, faster than the 7.2 percent increase economists had forecast. Imports climbed 14.8 percent, much above expectations for 8.3 percent growth.

US markets closed higher following Comey's testimony

The US markets closed higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index finishing at a record, marking its 38th all-time closing high in 2017. The former FBI Director James Comey’s appearance in front of the US Senate Intelligence Committee concluded without any significant revelations. The street had signaled that above events don’t appear to threaten the stock market’s extended push into record territory, which has been driven by President Donald Trump’s promises of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation.

The Dow Jones added 8.84 points or 0.04 percent to 21,182.53, Nasdaq was up 24.38 points or 0.39 percent to 6,321.76, while S&P 500 edged higher by 0.65 points or 0.03 percent to 2,433.79

Economy Overview 

Indiato be one of the top prospective FDI destination: UNCTAD


The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in its latest report ‘World Investment Report 2017’ has saidthat India would be the top prospective foreign direct investment (FDI) destination globally after the U.S. and China. The report however noted that although new liberalization efforts continue to improve the investment climate in India, tax-related concerns remain a deterrent for some foreign investors.


UNCTAD report said that an improved economic outlook in major Asian economies such as India, China is likely to lift investor confidence and help boost FDI inflows by about 15 per cent in 2017. Besides, it has said that the country’s renewed policy efforts to attract FDI may also contribute to higher inflows in 2017, adding that foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly relying on cross-border M&As (mergers and acquisitions) to penetrate the rapidly growing Indian market.


It said that in major recipients such as China, India and Indonesia, renewed policy efforts to attract FDI could contribute to an increase of inflows in 2017. However, the report found that FDI in India remained almost flat in year 2016 at about $44 billion, up only 1 per cent from 2015. At the same time India's outward FDI declined by about third from $7.572 billion in 2015 to $5.12 billion in 2016. UNCTAD has also reported that FDI inflows to developing Asia shrank by 15 per cent to $443 billion in 2016, the first decline since 2012.

Record jumpin FDI from $34,487 billion to $61,724 billion since 2013: Modi


Giving an overview of his three-year-old government, Prime Minister NarendraModi has said that there has been a record jump in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from $34,487 billion to $61,724billion since 2013. Terming India a bright spot in the cloudy global

economy, he said that doing business here has been made easier and the tax regime is more predictable and stable. He pointed out that the goods and services tax (GST) regime is also going to have long standing benefits for the nation.

Talking about his 'guiding tenet-reform to transform', Modi said that the reform agenda of government is comprehensive and inclusive, covering all sections of society, all regions of India and all aspects needing attention. He also said that it was a matter of immense happiness that a friendly spirit of competition has developed among the states for accelerating reforms and getting more investment.


On matters related to next-gen infrastructure for a new India, PM said that they are giving the added push to infrastructure projects with a special emphasis on timely completion. Adding further, he said that the government’s goal is a new India, powered by the skills and talent of the youth. He also said that substantial ground has been covered in the last three years and India is poised to scale newer heights of progress.

Farm loan waivers may harm country’s fiscal health, spur inflation: RBI


Raising concerns over the recent spate of farm loan waivers across the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel has said that rush for such actions may harm the country’s fiscal health and may have inflationary spillovers. He said that past episodes have shown when there are significant fiscal slippages they do permeate through inflation sooner or later.

Markets ignore UK elections, pound weakness &Comeytestification and hit fresh highs. Global risk levels at highest levels since 2008 as scramble for equities sees markets in heavily overbought zone.

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Indian Indices: US markets hit fresh new all time highs as the Dow Jones nearly hit 21300 on the upside. The weakness in UK Pound saw strength in US Dollar, which further prompted buying in the S&P while the Nasdaq fell heavily after rising nonstop for the last 9 days. Asian indices saw profit taking on opening bell with the Japanese 'Nikkei" down over 150 points as North Korean rhetoric saw weak sentiment prevail.

Nifty saw last hour buying led by Metals and select Auto stocks drive the index higher even as the broader market saw corrections. For today expect range bound trade on the Nifty while stock/sector outperformance continuing. Expect defensive buying in Pharma and select mid-caps to be the theme today while selling in PSU banks and Financials may be witnessed in the light of further farm loan waivers being announced by states.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 31132.97, down by 129.09 points or 0.41% after trading in a range of 31070.65 and 31225.43. There were 11 stocks advancing against 19 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.14%, while Small cap index was down by 0.09%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9625.30, down by 42.95 points or 0.44% after trading in a range of 9606.40 and 9647.05. There were 19 stocks advancing against 32 stocks declining on the index.




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Technical view: Nifty sees resistance closer to 9700 while 9580 will act as strong support, any breach either side could see Nifty chart way forward. Bank Nifty also sees strong resistance around 23750 while 23500 act as strong support.


Eros International (Buy Above 233.5 with Stop Loss at 229.25 for Target of 242): After being in the declining mode for over three weeks, the stock has broken out from a declining trend line. The strong bounce is seen after Eros found support at its 200-DMA. The up-thrust in price is seen on the back of smart uptick in volumes. In addition, other oscillators also indicate that the current momentum may extend further.

Derivative Snippets :

Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC)is keen to acquire HPCL in a Rs422.54bn deal after finding Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL) too expensive to buy.

In the last trading session, markets ended on a positive note as the banking stocks continued to shine. Bank Nifty 23500CE witnessed marginal short selling as the open interest increased by ~68k shares, making 23500 level as an important support for Bank Nifty.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 101 Cr.

FIIs index future long short ratio at 4.3 vs 5.6x with a significant addition of short positions to the tune of ~14k contracts, indicating of a minor correction.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Sun Pharma up by 1.35%, Mahindra & Mahindra up by 1.21%, GAIL India up by 1.15%, Vedanta up by 0.76% and Tata Steel up by 0.70%. On the flip side, Wipro down by 2.83%, Bank of Baroda down by 2.13%, Larsen & Toubro down by 1.41%, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone down by 1.24% and Tata Motors - DVR down by 1.19% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 0.90%, Metal up by 0.48%, Healthcare up by 0.39%, Telecom up by 0.19% and Consumer Disc up by 0.15%, while IT down by 0.84%, Capital Goods down by 0.78%, TECK down by 0.66%, Industrials down by 0.58% and Bankex down by 0.52% were the losing indices on BSE.



On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in red, as central bank meetings ahead and uncertainty over the chances for a coalition government in Britain turned investors cautious. In a report, Economic and Social Research Institute said that Japan’s Core Machinery Orders fell to -3.1%, from 1.4% in the preceding month.

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 319.7 points or 1.23% to 25,710.59, Nikkei 225 decreased 111.75 points or 0.56% to 19,901.51, Taiwan Weighted decreased 72.22 points or 0.71% to 10,127.43, KOSPI Index decreased 25.07 points or 1.05% to 2,356.62 and Shanghai Composite decreased 14.77 points or 0.47% to 3,143.63.On the other hand, Jakarta Composite increased 32.09 points or 0.57% to 5,707.61.Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange is closed on account of National holiday.


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