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Nifty Opening Note

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Indian Stock Market Trading View For 15 Feb,2021:

Global cues will play critical role. Nifty is likely to turn volatile as the day progresses. 

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 15220 level then expect some further up move and if it breaks and trade below 15140 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.


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Govt collects Rs 1,492 crore equalisation levy between April 2020 - January 2021

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In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Hardeep Singh Puri said the equalisation levy collection stood at Rs 338.6 crore in 2016-17, Rs 589.4 crore in 2017-18 and Rs 938.9 crore in 2018-19.Representative image

The government collected Rs 1,492 crore worth equalisation levy between April 1, 2020 and January 30, 2021, Parliament was informed on Friday.

In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Hardeep Singh Puri said the equalisation levy collection stood at Rs 338.6 crore in 2016-17, Rs 589.4 crore in 2017-18 and Rs 938.9 crore in 2018-19.

The collection was Rs 1,136.5 crore in 2019-20 and Rs 1,492.7 crore in 2020-21 (up to January 30).Equalisation levy was first introduced by Finance Act, 2016, at the rate of 6 per cent on payments for digital advertisement services received by non-resident companies without a permanent establishment in India, if these exceeded Rs 1 lakh a year.

He also said the US has put out investigation reports on Digital Services Tax (DST) against three countries -- India, Italy and Turkey -- on January 6. The findings are that the DST in these countries discriminates against US companies and burdens or restricts US commerce.

To a query on whether the government is taking steps to remedy the concerns raised, Puri said "such issues are a part of an economic relationship, and feature in the regular bilateral engagements between India and the US".

Replying to another question, he said India is presently "not" negotiating any FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with the US but was engaged with America to arrive at a 'shared understanding' on some of the market access issues faced by exporters on both sides.Separately, the minister said that to support Indian rice bran oil processors to improve technology and equipment for optimum extraction of rice bran oil in the country, the Department of Food and Public Distribution is working with other ministries concerned.

The country's import of rice bran oil stood at 71,580 tonnes during April-November 2020-21.

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Interview | Solar power can overtake coal in India within 10 years, says IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol

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India is set for explosive growth when it comes to solar, Fatih Birol told Moneycontrol in an exclusive interview.

At a time when the global energy market is facing a drop in demand due to COVID-19 pandemic, turning immune to the situation, the renewable sector has seen a growth. An India Energy Outlook report for 2021 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that going by the current momentum, the electricity sector in India is on the cusp of a solar revolution. 

In an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol, Fatih Birol, IEA’s Executive Director expressed hope that solar energy will overtake coal within the next ten years. He also batted for the usage of hydrogen, carbon capture storage and clean natural gas to reduce the dependency on coal.

Edited excerpts: 

Q. India is talking about introducing a hydrogen mission. A lot of focus is there on solar too. How are you seeing this scenario? 

Hydrogen can make the decarbonised system much more cleaner. When it comes to solar, India is set for explosive growth. Today, less than 5 percent of India’s electricity generation is coming from solar and 70 percent from coal. Our numbers show that due to extra-ordinary cost-competitiveness of solar and right policies, renewables, mainly solar can overtake coal within the next ten years. 

It is a huge change and wonderful news for India in terms of its economy and air pollution in the cities. 

Q. What is your take on India’s steps towards making energy accessible to the common man? 

When people ask me whether or not India will be able to steer its economy and energy sector in a successful way, I say absolutely yes. I have two reasons to say this. First, when I released our first India Energy Outlook in 2015, I said India is moving to the Centre stage of world energy. Today, without hesitation I can say that India has arrived at the centre stage of the world energy. The second reason is that India added 900 million electricity connections since 2000, it has never been the case in the history of any country. In my view, it is a history written in the world energy sector. 

Implementation of LED is a big step towards energy efficiency improvement and an example for many countries and the Ujjwala program that brought clean fuel for millions of people are the reasons why I believe that India can have a much brighter, affordable and cleaner energy future. 

Q. India is targeting to become a gas-based economy. Is it a strategy in the right direction? 

Today, the share of gas in India’s energy mix is 6 percent. It is one of the lowest in the world. There are ambitions of the government to increase this. We expect growth, mainly in industry and city gas distribution, for cooking and transport sector. This can definitely improve the air quality and displace coal, which is good news. 

It is very important that this gas comes from the countries where we have control over methane emissions. I believe the share of gas in India will increase significantly. When we talk about coal, we talk about the electricity sector. But a lot of coal is used in iron and steel, cement and others, we have to decarbonise them and make them environment friendly. Gas can play an important role here. 

Q. How can India bring down the share of coal in its energy basket? 

Coal has a huge share of 70 per cent of electricity generation in India. For electricity generation, continuous support for renewables, especially solar, coupled with battery storage is needed to decarbonise the power sector. We use a lot of coal in India also for iron and steel and cement, here we can use, hydrogen, carbon capture storage and clean natural gas to reduce the dependency on coal. 

If India goes in this direction, it will not only be god for the Indian economy and energy sector, but the country can be a pioneer by setting a new model of clean growth. 

Q. With vaccines in place, do you see the global energy demand recovering?  

If we can bring the pandemic under control, we can see recovery in the global energy sector. I believe coal is very difficult to recover because of lesser emphasis on coal. The oil will recover in a few years, but renewables proved to be Covid immune in 2020. Although global energy declined by 5 per cent in 2020, renewable energy saw an increase. In 2021, it will increase significantly. 

Q. How do you rate India’s steps towards ensuring energy security? 

India is making good steps in the right direction. For example, I can remember that during the low oil prices, India was one of the countries that put a lot of oil in their stocks. Our numbers show that the reliance on imported oil in India will go up substantially as a result of road transport, especially trucks, which is a major contributor to oil imports in India. Trucks in many countries, we use for freight. I think it may be a very good idea to transfer a big chunk of it to railways, which can run by electricity. It will be good for energy security, reducing pollution and will be good for the Indian economy. 

I am following the developments in the Indian Railways sector, I can say it is an outstanding success in terms of logistical transformation to what kind of energy it is using and the way it is modernised. It can be a model for many countries. 

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Govt to soon bring bill on crypto currencies: MoS Finance Anurag Thakur

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Replying to a question in the Upper House, Anurag Thakur said regulatory bodies like RBI and SEBI do not have any legal framework to directly regulate crypto currencies as they are not currencies, assets, securities or commodities issued by identifiable users.

Image: Wikipedia/Government of India


The government will soon bring a bill on crypto currencies as existing laws are inadequate to deal with issues concerning them, Minister of State For Finance Anurag Thakur told Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.

Replying to a question in the Upper House, Thakur said regulatory bodies like RBI and SEBI do not have any legal framework to directly regulate crypto currencies as they are not currencies, assets, securities or commodities issued by identifiable users.

"The existing laws are inadequate to deal with the subject,” he said.

The government had formed an Inter-Ministerial Committee which has given its report on issues related to virtual currencies.

There was also a meeting of the Empowered Technology Group.The Committee of Secretaries chaired by the Cabinet Secretary has also given its report.

"A bill (on crypto currencies) is being finalised and it will soon be send to the Cabinet. We will soon be bringing a bill,” Thakur said.

In view of the risks associated with Virtual Currencies (VCs), including Bitcoins, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through a circular in April 2018, had advised all the entities regulated by it not to deal in VCs or provide services for facilitating any person or entity in dealing with or settling VCs.However, Supreme Court, vide judgement dated March 4, 2020, had set aside the RBI’s circular.To another question regarding Chinese companies in the country, the minister said as of now, there are around 92 companies registered in the country.

Out of them, 80 Chinese companies are actively working in India.

Growth, inflation outlook portends 'more than full recovery' in 2021-22: FinMin report

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The latest Economic Survey projected growth rate to rebound to 11 percent during 2012-22 while the Budget estimated real GDP to be between 10-10.5 percent.

India Economy

India Economy

Painting a rosy picture of the economy, the finance ministry's monthly report on Tuesday said growth and inflation outlook for 2021-22 portends more than full recovery, and that the country has become the COVID-19 vaccine hub of the world.

"The structural reforms and the policy push under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Mission along with the slew of measures announced in the Union Budget 2021-22 towards achieving broad-based inclusive growth will strengthen the fundamentals of the economy and bring it back on to a strong and sustainable growth path in the year ahead," the ministry's Monthly Economic Report said.

Growth and inflation outlook in 2021-22, "portends more than full recovery", it added. Indian economy is estimated to contract 7.7 percent in the current financial year, mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic.

The latest Economic Survey projected growth rate to rebound to 11 percent during 2012-22 while the Budget estimated real GDP to be between 10-10.5 percent. "FY 2021-22 will be the year to rebuild with the IMF projecting growth of output at 11.5 percent, Economic Survey at 11 percent and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 10.5 percent.

"With the IMF keeping India's growth projections elevated at 6.8 percent in FY 2022-23, India is back as the fastest growing major economy in the world," it said. The Survey pitched for growth through counter cyclical fiscal policy emphasising that growth alone is the answer to sustaining the public debt burden of the country, the report said.

The Survey was presented in Parliament on January 29 and the Budget on February 1. The Budget implemented the counter cyclical fiscal policy by raising the target of fiscal deficit to 6.8 percent of GDP, more than double the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) target, the report said.

With the expanded borrowing programme mostly meant for funding the enhanced capital outlay, the Budget has set in place the multiplier impact on growth to support the prescribed fiscal deficit target of 4.5 percent of GDP in 2026 under the fiscal glide path. The report noted that various measures taken by the government since March 2020 against the pandemic ensured minimum loss of life.

"Early lockdown, health-infra ramp up, gradual unlocking, blanket testing, social distancing, calibrated fiscal stimulus to minimise supply side disruptions and revive demand and structural reforms pursued diligently by government since March, 2020 have now come to fruition to limit the fatality rate to globally one of the lowest at 1.2 percent," it said.According to the report, with each day ending with positive COVID-19 cases falling to new lows and economic activity levels attaining new peaks, India has worked its way around the pandemic through the will of the brave people and astute policy interventions by the government.

"The fact that complacency is far from settling in is demonstrated by India administering close to four million doses of COVID-19 vaccine within a span of two weeks since 16th January, 2021 to become the fifth largest inoculated country in the world. "India has not only become the vaccine hub of the world but has also extended assistance to more than 90 nations requesting doses for stocking up," it noted

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Interview | RBI plan to hike CRR to impact borrowing cost for corporates, others, says Joseph Thomas of Emkay

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The RBI's monetary policy complements the Budget in its tone, intent and actions, says Thomas. The measures taken for retail investors are also good but the government should hasten the setting up of a separate debt management office.

Emkay Wealth Management's head of research  Joseph Thomas says the Reserve Bank of India's plan to hike the cash reserve ratio (CRR) will have an impact on the cost of borrowing for corporates as well as other borrowers.

In its final bi-monthly monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India left repo rates unchanged at 4 percent and kept the stance “accommodative” on February 5. The reverse repo rate was also kept steady at 3.35 percent and so were marginal standing facility and bank rate at 4.25 percent.

The central bank, however, announced a two-phase plan to restore CRR to 4 percent, a move expected to have an impact on the cost of credit.

"The extended marginal standing facility (MSF) relaxation is good for liquidity and nothing prevents the RBI from injecting liquidity into the system whenever it is required, in its assessment. So, that remains at the core of the accommodative policy," Thomas says in an interview to Moneycontrol's Sunil Shankar Matkar. Edited Excerpts:

Q: What is your reading of RBI policy, especially after Budget 2021? What does the accommodative stance indicate now?

The monetary policy complements the Budget in many ways, in terms of its tone, intent, and the underlying message and actions. The base rate, that is the repo rate, is kept unchanged, and the framework for the provision of liquidity remains the same. In short, the policy remains accommodative. RBI is generally expected to follow the accommodative stance of the policy till sustainable economic growth emerges. The only factor that can bring about changes in this policy is a sustained rise in the price level, the probability of which is very small at this juncture.

Q: The RBI expects FY22 GDP growth at 10.5 percent. It has a strong conviction that in FY22, India will undo the damage of COVID. Do you feel the growth expectations can be achieved or surpass in FY22?

The estimates of GDP growth for FY22, from all major agencies, both domestic and international, have been in the range of 10 to 11 percent. While this growth may not be surpassed, it is almost certain that it may not be substantially lower than that too, given the pick-up in general economic activity, and the rebound in manufacturing and industrial activity.

There are possible disruptors like a second or third wave of the pandemic engulfing our country as also other major countries, escalation of the border issues with China, a steep rise in interest rates, etc. But conviction abounds, in our ability to have better control of things, and thereby, grow much faster.

Q: The RBI has revised its CPI inflation projection to 5-5.2 percent for the first half of FY22 against 4.6-5.2 percent earlier, while the CPI inflation projection has been revised downwards to 5.2 percent for Q4FY21 from 5.8 percent earlier. What is your view? 

The RBI projection of inflation is based on RBI's assessment of the economic conditions, and they also hold surveys on various aspects of the economy, including expected inflation. In the latest survey, the responses summed up to expectations of slightly moderate inflation in the immediate term and more or less the same level of inflation over the next one year or so. RBI estimates are based majorly on this.

On food inflation, we may see lower prices in the coming months due to a better supply of fruits and vegetables after a good winter crop and a better kharif harvesting season but the prices of pulses may remain high. In the non-food category, one thing that may potentially cause some trouble is fuel prices. Brent is already close to $60 a barrel. This may not be good for the general price level as fuel prices have a cascading effect on all major items of consumption. Therefore, the inflation projections, overall, look quite conservative but close to realistic.

Q: The RBI said CRR normalisation opened up space for more options to inject liquidity and announced a two-phase normalisation for CRR. It will gradually restore the CRR to 3.5 percent in March and 4 percent in May. It extended MSF relaxation for another six months. What is your view?

There are shades of rationalising the liquidity management in the RBI policy. The CRR will be hiked by 1 percent-from 3 percent to 4 percent, to the pre-pandemic level-in two phases. This is happening between March and May, so not very far this day. We should note that any CRR measure will have an impact on the credit multiplier. This is a measure which will have an impact on the cost of credit. Lending by banks and also their borrowings will become more expensive over a period of time. It also has implications for the quantum of liquidity because to the extent of the hike in CRR, an equivalent amount of money, by way of a certain percentage of the net time and demand liabilities of the banks, will go into the RBI as part of CRR with the central bank. To that extent, liquidity will get curtailed.

To state this more directly, this measure will have an impact on the cost of borrowing for the corporates as well as other borrowers. The extended marginal standing facility relaxation is good for liquidity, and nothing prevents the RBI from injecting liquidity into the system whenever it is required, in its assessment. So, that remains at the core of the accommodative policy.

Q: The RBI decided to include NBFCs in TLTRO on-tap scheme and will provide funds from banks to NBFCs under on-tap TLTRO. It will incentivise new MSME loans by banks. Will it help NBFCs?

The very objective of Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) is targeted funds, or credit delivery, by banks, making investments into different types of borrowing instruments of specific sectors, which require liquidity support. NBFCs are an integral part of the larger banking and financial services domain and they satisfy a need that is important to our economic growth. The RBI statement is very clear on this, "Given that NBFCs are well recognised conduits for reaching out last-mile credit and act as a force multiplier in expanding credit to various sectors, it is now proposed to provide funds from banks under the TLTRO on Tap scheme to NBFCs for incremental lending to these sectors."

Coming to the MSME financing, the RBI has given the benefit to banks by way of a deduction of the amount advanced from the NTDL for the purpose of CRR maintenance and this would help the banks to offer more credit at a better rate to MSMEs but the success of this programme will depend on the initiative and action of the banks.

Q: Retail investors can now access primary and secondary government bond market. Retail investors can open gilt accounts with the RBI. Is it a surprise? How should retail investors go about with gilt funds?

The objective of the RBI in this is to provide direct access to retail investors. It is not that access has not been there so far. They could access the market through their advisers or brokers and get the government securities purchased and credited to their sub-SGL accounts or demats.

What comes with the new thing is direct access with and through the RBI. This may encourage many investors to open accounts with RBI and start investing. Another useful feature of this action is that it is a reform to the existing system. Under the current set-up, the retail investors accessing markets through brokers or their banks, as the case may be, used to get a retail price for a small lot or an odd lot, which is often much higher than a wholesale price, or a large lot or market lot price. This differentiated pricing for small and odd lots will be eliminated almost completely, which will bring in more efficiency in the market access for small investors.Gilt funds are a good avenue and mode for investing into gilts and they work on NAV, which is common for all investors as of a specific investment date. Gilts funds pickup larger market lots and therefore, they do not have the disadvantage of differentiated pricing. The RBI action is a step in the right direction. But considering the large number of accounts that they may have to open for retail investors, and which need to be maintained and serviced, it would be better if the long-awaited transformation of the debt management function of the RBI into a separate office of debt management of the GOI is realised sooner than later.

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Budget 2021 'booster rocket' for economy, will make this decade 'Roaring 20s' for India: Jayant Sinha

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The impact of this Budget will be that the country will not only see a very strong recovery this fiscal, but also in the following years, India will continue to grow at 7 to 8 percent, said Jayant Sinha, who was the minister of state for finance in the first term of the Modi government.

Jayant Sinha

Jayant Sinha

Describing the 2021-22 Budget a "booster rocket" for the economy, BJP leader Jayant Sinha on Friday said it will place India on the path of non-inflationary growth and make this decade "Roaring 20s" for the country.

This Budget has focused on supply-side investment and this is going to ensure that the country has a non-inflationary growth for very long period of time, Sinha, who chairs the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance, said.

"This budget is a booster rocket for the economy. The country is proceeding on a V-shaped recovery path and will immensely benefit from this booster rocket. It will firmly place the country on a non-inflationary growth trajectory, which is going to sustain for a very long period of time," he told PTI.

The impact of this Budget will be that the country will not only see a very strong recovery this fiscal, but also in the following years, India will continue to grow at 7 to 8 percent, said Sinha, who was the minister of state for finance in the first term of the Modi government.

"This budget and the reforms which were carried out by the Narendra Modi-led government in the last six years, will make this decade a decade of Roaring 20s for India," he said.

'Roaring 20s' refers to the decade of the 1920s, which followed after war devastation and the 1918 Spanish Flu. In that decade, the US and several European nations saw prosperity and economic boom.

Talking about fiscal deficit, which is pegged at 9.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Sinha said fiscal deficit numbers this year includes the spending on the Food Corporation of India (FCI), and those were extra budgetary receipts.

The former Union minister said besides looking at fiscal deficit, it is also important to note where those extra resources were used.

Lot of those resources were used for providing relief to the poor and the marginalised during the coronavirus-induced lockdown. These resources were used to help people during the challenging time, he said.

Sinha also asserted that mega reforms were announced in the Budget, including setting up of an asset reconstruction company and an asset management company to clean up non-performing assets in the banking sector. Setting up of textile parks was also announced, he said.

On disinvestment of Air India, Sinha, who also held the civil aviation portfolio in the previous government, said the intent of the Centre is clear and it is to do a strategic sale of the national carrier.There were issues related to non-core assets, core assets and subsidiaries of the airline, now all those have been dealt with, he said underlining that the disinvestment of Air India is a complicated process.

Read Also:- Budget 2021 lays foundations of $5 trillion economy

He also said for disinvestment of the carrier, the government will also take note of market conditions and also of the aviation sector which has been deeply impacted by COVID-19 pandemic.

Budget relief for middle class , business in wakeup of Covid-19 And Now Get High Accuracy Tips For Indian Stock Market Tips For Sure Profit.



RBI Monetary Policy: Here's where you can watch the announcement live.

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Most economists expect the MPC to vote in favour of a pause on February 5 and continue with the accommodative policy stance.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy today after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) finishes a three-day meeting.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will make statement on the MPC's decision at 10 am. A post-policy press conference will be held at 12 pm.The RBI Governor's statement and the press conference can be viewed live on the RBI's YouTube channel.

Most economists expect the MPC to vote in favour of a pause on February 5 and continue with the accommodative policy stance, Moneycontrol reported.During the previous policy, the MPC had left the repo rate unchanged at 4 percent.

The MPC's decision comes just days after the Union Budget for 2021-22. During the Budget, the government said it will borrow Rs 12.05 lakh crore from the market in FY22, lower than the Rs 12.80 lakh crore estimated for the current fiscal year.

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Indian rice rates scale 3-year peak; Vietnam hit by container shortage

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Top exporter India's 5 percent broken parboiled variety were quoted at $402-$408 per tonne, its highest since May 2018.

Robust demand from across Asia and Africa sent Indian rice export prices to a three-year peak this week, while Vietnamese exporters struggled to ship due to high freight prices fuelled by a container shortage.

Top exporter India's 5 percent broken parboiled variety were quoted at $402-$408 per tonne, its highest since May 2018.

"Along with traditional buyers, China and Vietnam are also buying from India. There's huge demand," said an exporter based at Kakinada in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

Andhra Pradesh will use a deepwater port to export rice for the first time in decades amid a global grain shortage, according to a government order seen by Reuters, which could raise shipments this year by a fifth.

Neighbouring Bangladesh, which has been grappling with limited supply, also bought more than 110,000 tonnes from India with more on its way, a senior Food Ministry official said.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's 5 percent broken rice prices rose to $510-$515 per tonne from $505-510 last week on thin supply.

"Trade is very slow as most of us are already off for the Lunar New Year holiday, and buyers have suspended signing new contracts waiting for the new harvest," a trader based in the Mekong Delta province of An Giang said.

The harvest of the winter-spring crop, the largest of the year, will peak in late February or early March, traders said.

Shipments were also being hampered by high freight charges due to a container shortage.

"Shipments to regional ports have been facing delays, and we can't even book ships for European and African ports," a trader said.

Thailand's 5 percent broken rice prices jumped to their highest level since early April at $535-$564 per tonne, amid concerns over low supplies, while exporters eyed a tender from Iraq, traders said.

Iraq's trade ministry said it intended to procure rice from international suppliers this week.

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Will the RBI Monetary Policy spoil the Budget party on February 5?

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Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das

Union Budget 2021, with a sharp focus on growth revival, cheered investors in Indian markets.

Abundant liquidity, promise of massive infra push and announcement on privatisation ticked all the right boxes for stock markets. The next big trigger is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy outcome on February 5.

Most economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the rate-setting panel, to vote in favour of a pause on February 5 and continue with the accommodative stance.

That wouldn’t be a surprise for markets.

In the previous rounds, the MPC has left enough hints to convey that reviving growth is the priority and the panel will remain on an accommodative stance "as long as necessary". After a growth supportive Union Budget, the MPC is unlikely to spoil the party too soon.

In all likelihood, the RBI is expected to announce a pause and continue with the accommodative stance.

What needs to be watched is the central bank's move on the liquidity front. The RBI may announce some early measures to gradually drain the excess liquidity from the banking system. When and how is the question.

“Considering the threat arising from surplus liquidity on inflation, we expect the RBI to focus on squeezing excess liquidity from the system,” said M Govinda Rao, Chief Economic Adviser at Brickwork ratings.

“As there is an unprecedented slump in economic activities caused due to the pandemic, the MPC is likely to continue with its accommodative monetary policy stance and hold the repo rate unchanged at 4 percent till the time the economy gets back to the growth trajectory,” Rao said.

A rate cut is out of question for now.

Since March 2020 (when the pandemic began), the MPC has cut the key lending rate, repo, by 115 basis points. Since February 2019, the rate cuts amount to 250 bps. One bps is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Banks have significantly passed on the benefit of rate cuts to end borrowers subsequently. Still, the central bank may wait to see the full transmission of the policy rates before acting further.

How will the RBI drain the excess liquidity?

That will be a tricky decision.

Bond markets are already spooked with the elevated market borrowings that have accompanied a growth-focused budget. The government will borrow Rs 12.05 lakh crore from the market in 2021-22, lower than the Rs 12.80 lakh crore estimated for the current financial year.

According to the Revised Estimate, the gross borrowing for the current financial year was raised to Rs 12.8 lakh crore as against the Budget Estimate of Rs 7.8 lakh crore, registering an increase of 64 percent.

“The unintended financial tightening amid a nascent growth recovery is neither optimal nor desirable at the current juncture. The upcoming RBI policy will likely to be vociferous on communication on being the heavy-duty balancing factor in Gsec demand-supply ahead,” said Emkay Research in a note.

“We reckon there seems much ado about fiscal dominance of the monetary policy in the current context and monetary policy complementarity is presently needed,” said the note.

The yield on 10-year bonds jumped 15 bps following the Budget announcement. In this context, the RBI may not want to disturb the markets further with harsh tightening measures. Still, the central bank may announce certain measures such as MSS Bonds to manage the liquidity situation, economists expect.

The RBI governor, in the recent past, has acknowledged the fact that a premature withdrawal of liquidity will be detrimental to growth. Markets are pinning hopes on this promise. Madan

 Sabnavis, Chief Economist of CARE Rating agency, said the central bank is unlikely to announce measures to tighten liquidity in this policy.

There is good news on the inflation front. India's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the country's retail inflation, eased to 4.59 percent in December versus 6.93 percent in November, within the RBI's upper band of 6. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) or the inflation in the food basket, eased to 3.41 percent in the month of December, down from 9.50 percent in November. That is a comforting factor for the rate-setting panel.The economy is growing, albeit, slowly. The latest PMI data signals some optimism in the recent months. Bank lending has picked up slowly and restructuring figures show companies are showing better-than-expected recovery. But, the overall growth scenario remains fragile. The economy, facing a contraction this year, is severely hit by the pandemic. Sudden withdrawal of liquidity could hurt the recovery process and spook financial markets.

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