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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted imports from Europe's second-largest nation, spiking edible oil prices

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Author of Tata: The Global Corporation that built Indian Capitalism spoke of how India and its old business houses managed to work the earlier geopolitical minefield to their advantage

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 Share Market Closing Note

Benchmark indices whipsawed in trade on Thursday, the day of weekly F&O expiry, as geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia remained unabated. Besides, Brent crude prices above $120 per barrel also added to investor woes. 

The frontline S&P BSE Sensex gyrated 690 points intra-day before settling at 57,596, down 89 points or 0.15 per cent. The Nifty50, on the other hand, ended at 17,223, down 23 points or 0.13 per cent. The 50-share index had touched an intra-day high and low of 17,292 and 17,091, respectively. 

Dr Reddys Labs (up nearly 5 per cent) was the top Nifty gainer today, followed by Coal India, Hindalco, Cipla, NTPC, JSW Steel, Tech M, and RIL. On the downside, Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, Titan, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Maruti Suzuki, Divis Labs, BPCL, Tata Consumer Products, BPCL, and M&M slipped between 1 per cent and 3 per cent, keeping a lid on the upside.

The broader markets, on the contrary, held their ground and outperformed the headline indices. The BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices added up to 0.3 per cent amid gains in Zee Entertainment, Mindtree, Jindal Steel, Mphasis, Glenmark Pharma, Suven Pharma, Ganesh Housing, Future Retail, and Dish TV.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot close above 17260 level then expect some upmove in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is likely to be seen in the market. Avoid open positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.40 PM

Just In:

Moscow stock exchange partially reopens after one-month closure

Trading resumed for only around 30 of the largest companies that make up the ruble-denominated MOEX Russia Index, which saw early gains of up to 10 percent.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 8823.If it manages to hold above 8780 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 8780 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is likely to turn volatile now in last hours. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17200 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17160 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty. Currently Nifty is trading at 17195.

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Topic :- Time:1.55 PM

Just In:

1. Anil Ambanis fire sale stretches, frustrating some of his lenders.

2. Paytm shares jump 13% after freefall, still at 72% discount to issue price

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Topic :- Time:1.40 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 51850.If it manages to trade and sustain above 51900 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 51800 level then some decline can follow. Overall Buy from dips should be the approach till evening session.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

FDI inflow to India declines to $74.01 billion in 2021:

Total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to India declined to $74.01 billion in the calendar year 2021, which is 15 per cent lower from $87.55 billion recorded in the previous year, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said on Wednesday.

The FDI inflow includes equity inflow, equity capital of unincorporated bodies, re-invested earnings and other capital.

FDI is largely a matter of commercial business decisions and FDI inflow depends on a host of factors such as availability of natural resource, market size, infrastructure, political and general investment climate as well as macro-economic stability and investment decision of foreign investors. In calendar year 2021, the FDI inflow decreased by 15 per cent as compared to calendar year 2020, Minister of State in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Som Parkash said in a written reply in the Lok ..

To promote FDI, the Government has put in place an investor-friendly policy, wherein most sectors except certain strategically important sectors are open for 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route. Further, the policy on FDI is reviewed on an ongoing basis, to ensure that India remains attractive and investor-friendly destination, the minister said.

Changes are made in the policy after having consultations with stakeholders including apex industry chambers, associations, representatives of industries/groups and other organizations. The government has recently undertaken a number of reforms across sectors. In the recent past, reforms in the FDI policy have been undertaken in sectors such as Insurance, Petroleum & Natural Gas, Telecom etc, the minister added.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is likely to turn volatile now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17200 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 17160 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 824.If it manages to trade and sustain above 825 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 822.80 level then some decline can follow in Copper.

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Topic :- Time:12.10 PM

Just In:

Nirmala Sitharaman to introduce Finance Bill in Lok Sabha today.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty spot is trading at 17200.If it breaks and trade below 17180 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17240 level then some upmove can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex recovers 600pts from low, Nifty nears 17,300; IT leads

2. Invesco backs Zee, Sony merger, decides against pursuing litigation | Zee surges 15%

3. 2 years after Covid, Indian economy hopping from one crisis to another

4. No bar on Maruti to make electric vehicles: Chairman R C Bhargava

5. Rajesh Jain, pioneer of Indias dotcom era, preps IPO for second startup

6. Suven Pharma gains 5% to hit record high; stock rallies 18% in three days

7. 5-day rally halts! L&T Finance down 7% on profit-taking post L&T stake hike

8. Nelco freezes at 5% upper circuit on strategic pact with Omnispace

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 24 March,2022:

More trouble for Russia expected in the form of sanctions and more restriction. Joe Biden to meet Nato members.Russia might take more agressive stand. CRUDEOIL, NATURALGAS and Oil based stocks will remain in focus. Weekly expiry will result in volatile trend. 

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17280 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17200 level then some decline is expected to follow in the share market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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The share touched a 52-week high of Rs 968.55 and a 52-week low of Rs 178.85 on 19 October 2021 and 19 April 2021 respectively.

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The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) on Thursday said it has appointed Hisashi Takeuchi as the new Managing Director and CEO with effect from April 1, 2022.

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Invesco will continue to monitor the proposed merger's progress. If the merger is not completed as currently proposed, Invesco retains the right to requisition a fresh EGM, it said

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The increase in PNG rates comes on the heels of oil marketing companies hiking petrol and diesel prices after a 137 day freeze.

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Consumers in Asia’s third-largest economy are feeling the bite as companies pass on a surge in costs since the invasion, battling the first hikes in five months this week in the prices of diesel and petrol, as well as more expensive vegetable oils.

Many Indians are cutting down on fried food and even vegetables as the Ukraine war inflates the prices of items from edible oils to fuel, threatening a sputtering recovery in the consumption-based economy after two years battling COVID-19.

Consumers in Asia’s third-largest economy are feeling the bite as companies pass on a surge in costs since the invasion, battling the first hikes in five months this week in the prices of diesel and petrol, as well as more expensive vegetable oils.

"God only knows how we will manage this level of price rise,” said Indrani Majumder, the sole earner in a family of four in the eastern city of Kolkata, adding that the past two years of the pandemic had brought a halving in salaries.

These days her family eats more boiled food to save on the cost of edible oil, she said. It is just one of almost a dozen homes were people said they were taking similar steps.

India’s economy expanded at a pace slower than expected in the quarter from October to December, and economists forecast a further dent to growth in the current one, as high fuel prices bring a jump in inflation.

Private consumption contributes the largest share of gross domestic output, at nearly 60 percent.

But since the invasion late in February, which Russia calls a special operation, Indian firms have raised prices of milk, instant noodles, chicken and other key items by about 5 percent to 20 percent.

About 800 million of a population of nearly 1.4 billion received free government supplies of staple foods during the pandemic, and even small price rises now can mean a knock for their budgets.

Families’ finances could stay anaemic for the third year in a row, warned Pronab Sen, formerly India’s chief statistician.

”The process of rebuilding savings was only beginning post the pandemic,” he added.

"Because of this latest shock, they will have to cut back on consumption.”

DARKENING PICTURE

Surging global prices of crude have prompted companies in the import-dependent nation to raise retail prices of petrol and diesel twice this week. India imports 85 percent of its crude oil, which has seen prices rise nearly 50 percent this year.

The South Asian nation is also the world’s biggest importer of edible oil, shipping in nearly 60 percent of its needs.

But the price of palm, the country’s most widely consumed edible oil, has jumped 45 percent this year. And supplies of sunflower oil, which Ukraine and Russia produce in large quantities, have been disrupted.

Some wholesalers said their sales of edible oil had fallen by a quarter in the past month as prices rose.

These factors helped keep India’s retail inflation in February above the central bank’s comfort level of 6 percent for the second month in a row, while the wholesale rate was more than 13 percent.

”The timing of input price inflation could not have been worse in the context of a slowing consumption trend,” financial services firm Jefferies said in a note.

The central bank has said it is monitoring crude and commodity prices ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in early April. But markets do not expect the Reserve Bank of India to change key rates, as it looks to prioritise growth.

This stance compares with global central banks, which have either raised rates or are weighing whether to do so to curb inflation. For instance, policymakers of the U.S. Federal Reserve called this week for big rate hikes in May.

For consumers, there is little relief in sight.

The Confederation of All India Traders estimates input costs for makers of consumer durables and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) to rise another 10 percent to 15 percent this month as fuel prices rise, an expense destined to be passed on to the final consumer.

In Kolkata, vegetable vendor Debashis Dhara said higher transport costs would bump up vegetable prices by a further 5 percent this week. His sales have already halved since February.

India’s Mother Dairy and Amul raised milk prices by nearly 5 percent this month, while FMCG companies such as Hindustan Unilever and Nestle are charging more for items such as instant noodles, tea and coffee.

Broiler chicken prices have jumped nearly 45 percent in six months to a record 145 rupees ($1.90) a kg this week, as key feed ingredients corn and soymeal have become costlier after supplies from the Black Sea region were affected.

Fertiliser prices have shot up to a record $150 a tonne since Russia, one of the biggest producers, rolled tanks and soldiers into Ukraine.

"It has become very difficult to manage our monthly budget,” said Archana Pawar, a housewife in the financial capital of Mumbai.

"This kind of price rise is forcing us to cut down consumption.”

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Consumers in Asia’s third-largest economy are feeling the bite as companies pass on a surge in costs since the invasion, battling the first hikes in five months this week in the prices of diesel and petrol, as well as more expensive vegetable oils.

Many Indians are cutting down on fried food and even vegetables as the Ukraine war inflates the prices of items from edible oils to fuel, threatening a sputtering recovery in the consumption-based economy after two years battling COVID-19.

Consumers in Asia’s third-largest economy are feeling the bite as companies pass on a surge in costs since the invasion, battling the first hikes in five months this week in the prices of diesel and petrol, as well as more expensive vegetable oils.

"God only knows how we will manage this level of price rise,” said Indrani Majumder, the sole earner in a family of four in the eastern city of Kolkata, adding that the past two years of the pandemic had brought a halving in salaries.

These days her family eats more boiled food to save on the cost of edible oil, she said. It is just one of almost a dozen homes were people said they were taking similar steps.

India’s economy expanded at a pace slower than expected in the quarter from October to December, and economists forecast a further dent to growth in the current one, as high fuel prices bring a jump in inflation.

Private consumption contributes the largest share of gross domestic output, at nearly 60 percent.

But since the invasion late in February, which Russia calls a special operation, Indian firms have raised prices of milk, instant noodles, chicken and other key items by about 5 percent to 20 percent.

About 800 million of a population of nearly 1.4 billion received free government supplies of staple foods during the pandemic, and even small price rises now can mean a knock for their budgets.

Families’ finances could stay anaemic for the third year in a row, warned Pronab Sen, formerly India’s chief statistician.

”The process of rebuilding savings was only beginning post the pandemic,” he added.

"Because of this latest shock, they will have to cut back on consumption.”

DARKENING PICTURE

Surging global prices of crude have prompted companies in the import-dependent nation to raise retail prices of petrol and diesel twice this week. India imports 85 percent of its crude oil, which has seen prices rise nearly 50 percent this year.

The South Asian nation is also the world’s biggest importer of edible oil, shipping in nearly 60 percent of its needs.

But the price of palm, the country’s most widely consumed edible oil, has jumped 45 percent this year. And supplies of sunflower oil, which Ukraine and Russia produce in large quantities, have been disrupted.

Some wholesalers said their sales of edible oil had fallen by a quarter in the past month as prices rose.

These factors helped keep India’s retail inflation in February above the central bank’s comfort level of 6 percent for the second month in a row, while the wholesale rate was more than 13 percent.

”The timing of input price inflation could not have been worse in the context of a slowing consumption trend,” financial services firm Jefferies said in a note.

The central bank has said it is monitoring crude and commodity prices ahead of its next monetary policy meeting in early April. But markets do not expect the Reserve Bank of India to change key rates, as it looks to prioritise growth.

This stance compares with global central banks, which have either raised rates or are weighing whether to do so to curb inflation. For instance, policymakers of the U.S. Federal Reserve called this week for big rate hikes in May.

For consumers, there is little relief in sight.

The Confederation of All India Traders estimates input costs for makers of consumer durables and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) to rise another 10 percent to 15 percent this month as fuel prices rise, an expense destined to be passed on to the final consumer.

In Kolkata, vegetable vendor Debashis Dhara said higher transport costs would bump up vegetable prices by a further 5 percent this week. His sales have already halved since February.

India’s Mother Dairy and Amul raised milk prices by nearly 5 percent this month, while FMCG companies such as Hindustan Unilever and Nestle are charging more for items such as instant noodles, tea and coffee.

Broiler chicken prices have jumped nearly 45 percent in six months to a record 145 rupees ($1.90) a kg this week, as key feed ingredients corn and soymeal have become costlier after supplies from the Black Sea region were affected.

Fertiliser prices have shot up to a record $150 a tonne since Russia, one of the biggest producers, rolled tanks and soldiers into Ukraine.

"It has become very difficult to manage our monthly budget,” said Archana Pawar, a housewife in the financial capital of Mumbai.

"This kind of price rise is forcing us to cut down consumption.”

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Lebanon bought the bulk of its wheat from Ukraine until Russia invaded, and the World Bank has warned it is one of a number of developing countries that face near-term wheat supply shortages as a result.