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Bond yields down 5 basis points on rate hike delay, inflation woes and weak factory output

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The RBI on Monday cancelled its forthcoming weekly auction for the second straight week on the back of comfortable cash balances and improved sentiments

Bond yields down 5 basis points on rate hike delay, inflation woes and weak  factory output

The government 10-year bond yield fell nearly 5 basis points on Tuesday as, according to analysts, rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India might be delayed in the face of weak factory data and higher inflation. This was the seventh consecutive sessions when the bond yields fell.

The RBI on Monday cancelled its forthcoming weekly auction for the second straight week on the back of comfortable cash balances and improved sentiments.

The 10-year bond yield dropped 5 bps to hit a low of 6.62 percent from its previous close of 6.667. Bond yields and prices move in opposite direction.

"The combination of weakening growth, in line with inflation and Omicron fears may potentially delay the monetary policy normalisation in India," Motilal Oswal said in a note to investors. Since the central bank kept the key policy rates unchanged after the bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee review earlier this month, a decision on raising the reverse repo rate now looks postponed to the next meeting scheduled in April.

The November index of industrial production data released recently grew only 1.4 percent on-year. This was half-way to analysts' estimate of 2.8 percent.  Retail inflation, although, picked up to 5.6 percent year-on-year for January, stayed lower than the analysts' consensus of 5.8 percent.

According to Barclays India, within target inflation means accommodative monetary policies could run for a slightly longer horizon. While the RBI may choose to normalise the policy corridor over the next six months, we expect repo rate hikes to only begin from Q3 2022, with risks of furtehr delays. "We still expect policy rate hikes of 50 basis points , which should push the repo rate to 4.5 percent by the end of 2022," Barlays report said.

Yields were under pressure since the beginning of the year due to expected policy tightening by global central banks and continued rising crude oil. After the Union Budget 2022, bond yields surged sharply due to a record borrowing programme announced and a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit target.

Rupee was trading at Rs 75.48 a dollar, up 0.16% from its previous close on Tuesday.

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How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch

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It’s always a good idea to have goal-specific portfolios There is no shortage of good mutual fund schemes in India, many being part of MoneyControl’s own curated MC30 list.

How to build your mutual fund portfolio from scratch

But how should you carefully pick a few of these to build a healthy mutual fund portfolio?

There can be many ways to do this. But I suggest you start with the lens of goal. It might sound boring, but that is the most effective approach in my view. Unless, you have too many goals, it’s always a good idea to have goal-specific portfolios to help you properly keep track of the goal-based investments. And if nothing else, it is still advisable to keep retirement savings separate from the rest of your financial goals. That way, you will give retirement planning the importance that it deserves.

Let’s take a simple example.

Suppose you want to save for three major goals: i) Down payment for the house purchase in four years’ time; ii) Daughter’s higher education in 7 years, and finally iii) Own retirement in 20 years.

Saving for different goals

You did some number crunching to find out what is the right amount to invest for different goals based on proper asset allocations rules. So it might seem something like this:

-For House down payment in 4 years - Rs 25,000 per month at 100 percent Debt: 0 percent Equity

-For Daughter’s Higher Education in 7 years - Rs 20,000 per month at 50 percent Debt: 50 percent Equity

-For Retirement in about 20 years - Rs 30,000 per month at 70 percent Equity: 30 percent Debt

I am sure you know what the above allocations are suggested. For long-term goals, a larger equity component is advised as it helps generate inflation-beating returns. But in the short-term, equity can be quite volatile and hence, short-term goals are best handled by debt in the portfolio. And what about medium-term goals? A simple combination of equity and debt can be used for such goals.

So now you know the precise amounts and how much of that is to be distributed between equity and debt. Now comes the question, as to how to build a solid mutual fund portfolio around this.

Let’s pick one goal at a time.

House Down payment goal (4 years)

This is a short-term goal and hence managed purely (or preliminary) via debt instruments. So choosing 1 one fund from the below category options should serve this goal’s requirements:

- Low / Short Duration / Conservative Hybrid fund (1 fund) - 100 percent

Daughter’s Higher Education Goal (7 years)

This is a medium-term goal. So a combination of debt and equity can be used. I have suggested 50:50 but one can even have 60-65 percent in equity initially if one’s risk appetite is suitable.

For such a requirement, the MF selection can be as follows:

- Large Cap Fund / Flexicap fund (pick 1 fund) - 50 to 60 percent

- Low / Short Duration fund (1 fund) - 40 to 50 percent

Or if you want, you can simply take the below one fund option:

- Aggressive Hybrid Fund / Dynamic Allocation Fund (1 fund) - 100 percent

After a few years, when this medium-term goal starts becoming a short-term goal, you will then have to consider gradually reducing the equity component to reduce the risk of getting poor (negative) returns near the goal day.

Retirement Goal (15-20 years)

This is a critical long-term goal. First, for the debt side of the portfolio, best to maximize your EPF and PPF. If that is not sufficient, consider increasing EPF via the VPF route. Or you can also look at using NPS as a debt tool with proper allocation in schemes G and C.

With respect to equity, for which about 70 percent allocation is suggested, you can opt for the following:

- Large Cap Index funds (1-2 funds) - 30 percent to 50 percent

- Flexicap fund (1 fund) - 20 to 30 percent

- Large & Midcap fund / Midcap fund (1 fund) - 20 percent to 30 percent

- International fund (1 fund) - 10 percent to 20 percent

So that is how you build your mutual fund portfolio that takes care of different goals and provides proper diversification across assets, fund categories, and investment styles.

Coal India says to up supply to non-power sectors driven by buffer stock

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Coal India has over 37 million ton of coal at its pitheads and therefore, it is considering increasing supply to consumers other than power companies.
Coal India says to up supply to non-power sectors driven by buffer stock

Coal India Limited (CIL) is gearing up to scale up its supply to the non-power sector as the state-run company has managed to create “sufficient buffer stock”, providing these sectors with much relief after they have struggled with shortage of the fuel.

CIL is currently supplying around 3.4 lakh ton coal per day to non-power sector (NPS),  which has been the average supply to this segment. Now, CIL has over 37 million ton (MT) of coal at its pitheads and therefore, it is considering increasing supply to consumers other than power companies, the miner said in a statement on February 12. 

Industry bodies representing fertiliser, aluminium, textile, sponge iron and captive power producers, among others, had reportedly made a representation to the prime minister seeking relief from the coal shortage they were facing. CIL said that despite prioritization of coal supply to the power sector and facing other challenges, the company supplied 101.7 MT till January in FY22, which accounts for 97% of the same period last year’s quantity to non-power sector customers. 

“CIL has sufficient buffer stock to increase supply to the non-power sector.  Coal availability is not a problem,” said a senior executive at Coal India.   

CIL’s dispatch to non-power sector in April-January in FY22 stood at 101.7 MT, up 8.2 percent in corresponding period of a pre-pandemic period in FY20. In FY19, when CIL recorded the highest ever total coal despatch since its inception, supply to the non-power sector grew by 11 percent over 91.5 MT.

In April-January of FY21, coal despatch to non-power sector was 105 MT, higher by a little over 3 MT compared to the same period of FY22. “The reasons for increased despatch during the Covid ravaged year were several. As the power sector regulated coal intake for the major part of FY21, due to demand disruption caused by Covid, CIL scaled up supplies to the non-power sector segment. Further, NPS customers also opted to lift higher volumes of coal as CIL’s e-auction sales were capped at notified price for the first half of FY21,” Coal India said.

Typically, non-power sectors import around 170 MT of coal for blending with domestic coal. But in FY22, the spiraling international coal prices proved to be a hindrance for importing requisite quantities giving rise to scarcity of coal at their end.

“FY22 has witnessed an unprecedented surge in power generation, the growth rate being the highest in a decade, necessitating the need to meet the power sector’s coal demand on a national priority. Riding on robust economic recovery, total coal-based power generation till January 2022 of the fiscal in progress grew by 11.2% on year-on-year comparison. Whereas domestic coal-based generation was up by 17% during this period. Bulk of the coal supply to the power sector was met by CIL on priority,” CIL said. 

Coal India said that in the same ten months ended January 2022, power generation by 14 imported coal-based power plants had declined 48 percent. “Meeting the resultant generation gap fell on domestic coal-based generators requiring enhanced indigenous coal supply. CIL supplied to the tune of around 20 MTs of this additional demand. In other words, imports were curtailed to that extent,” said CIL.

Forex reserves rise to $631.953 billion

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In the previous week ended January 28, the reserves had declined by $4.531 billion to $629.755 billion. It touched a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in the week ended September 3, 2021.Forex reserves rise to $631.953 billion

The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.198 billion to $631.953 billion in the week ended February 4, RBI data showed. In the previous week ended January 28, the reserves had declined by $4.531 billion to $629.755 billion. It touched a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in the week ended September 3, 2021.

During the reporting week, the surge in the foreign exchange reserves was on account of a rise in the Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), a major component of the overall reserves, and gold reserves, according to Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly data released on Friday. FCA increased by $2.251 billion to $568.329 billion in the week ended February 4.

ALSO READ: RBI cautions against unauthorised forex trading platforms

Expressed in dollar terms, FCA include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the foreign exchange reserves. Gold reserves declined by $210 million to $39.283 billion in the reporting week, the data showed.

The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased by $98 million to $19.108 billion. The country's reserve position with the IMF rose by $59 million to $5.233 billion in the reporting week, as per the data.

MC Interview | Barclays India's Rahul Bajoria: RBI is prioritising growth

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Inflation is expected to moderate in FY23, although rising international commodity prices – especially crude oil – remain a source of key upside risk, Barclays India's Rahul Bajoria said.India volatile rains may impact inflation, Barclays' Bajoria says

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates unchanged on February 10 and decided to continue its accommodative stance in the backdrop of elevated inflation.

The RBI is prioritising growth, Rahul Bajoria, managing director and chief India economist at Barclays India, told Moneycontrol in an interview. The central bank consistently emphasised maintaining an accommodative stance until sustainable growth is secured. Edited excerpts:

What is the message the RBI is giving out on supporting growth?

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the RBI has followed a policy of prioritising growth. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) has also consistently emphasised maintaining an accommodative policy stance until growth is secured on a durable/sustainable basis. Clearly, the growth slowdown that the country has endured during the pandemic is unprecedented and would require coordinated support from both monetary and fiscal authorities.

While evaluating the central bank’s measures to support growth, we must also consider all the moves it had undertaken over the last few years. In addition to keeping policy rates at low levels, the RBI has also undertaken significant liquidity infusion, provided subsidised credit to targeted segments, and also provided regulatory forbearance for sectors battered by the pandemic.

Such a growth-supportive stance from the central bank is consistent with our forecast of a short-lived hiking cycle with the terminal rate likely settling at 4.5 percent in the current cycle.

Since there is record borrowing from the bond market, how do you see the impact after the policy?

As governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised in the post-policy press conference, it’s important to appreciate that there is no extra/off-budget borrowing that is being undertaken this year. So, to an extent, the increased government’s fiscal deficit/market borrowing only marks a switch to the government’s account from the PSU side.

Now, as far the government’s borrowing plans this year are concerned, the RBI has reiterated its commitment as the government’s debt manager to ensure the borrowing programme is completed in a smooth and non-disruptive manner. The move to increase limits under the voluntary retention route to Rs 2.5 trillion (Rs 2.5 lakh crore) from Rs 1.5 trillion remains incrementally positive.

How much room does the government have to support economic growth?

We believe that the growth/revenue estimates presented in the budget are on the conservative side. Any upside surprise on revenue, which is very likely given the historical tax buoyancy for direct taxes in our country, could be used to further step up its expenditure. The government has prioritised capital expenditure this year and that remains a key positive due to the high multiplier effect. Further, the extension of Rs 1 trillion in loans to the state governments for capex-linked spending also could provide a boost to infrastructure and growth in the economy.

The budget seems to be highly inflationary. Will it not defeat the goal of boosting economic growth?

We do not agree with the assessment that the budget has anything significant to stoke inflation pressures in the economy. Yes, the fiscal deficit has increased, but as explained earlier, a large part of the increase in headline fiscal deficit remains a switch from off-budget items to on-budget spending.

In fact, fiscal resources were used to reduce inflation pressures in the economy. Be it the tax cuts on motor fuels and duty cuts on imported edible oils, the government has utilised/sacrificed fiscal resources to ensure that retail price pressures remain contained.

Overall, we believe that inflation in India is currently largely driven by imported components and as such, we expect inflation to moderate to 4.5 percent in FY23 from an average of 5.4 percent in FY22. The rise in international commodity prices – especially crude oil – remains a source of key upside risk.

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US inflation might have hit a new 40-year high in January

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Economists have forecast that when the Labor Department reports January’s inflation figures Thursday, it will show that consumer prices jumped 7.3 percent compared with 12 months ago, according to data provider FactSet. That would be up from a 7.1 percent year-over-year pace in December and would mark the biggest such increase since February 1982.

US inflation might have hit a new 40-year high in January | Arab News

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (RBI MPC) struck a surprisingly dovish chord yet again in this policy, choosing to keep all the key rates unchanged, including the Reverse Repo Rate.

The Repo-Reverse Repo policy corridor had widened since the onset of the pandemic, from the conventional 25 bps to 65 bps, as the RBI gave the much-needed liquidity boost in 2020 to manage financial stability during the pandemic. There was a wide consensus among market participants this time, that given the ongoing liquidity normalization by the RBI, it would hike the reverse repo rate by a modest 15 bps to perhaps even 25 bps. However, the RBI has chosen to stay on the sidelines for now, citing downside risks to the economy from the Omicron wave and therefore focusing more on ensuring a strong and sustainable economic recovery rather than fighting the current inflationary trends.

Also read - RBI’s dovishness delights stock market but risks lurk

On the inflation front, the RBI finds the current high prints of CPI inflation to be more on account of unfavourable base effects rather than any structural trend, and expects the CPI to moderate in the second half of FY 2022-23. What is noticeable is that the RBI, at this point in time, does not seem to be too concerned about the persistent high global oil prices (although it views this as a risk) and is also somewhat disregarding the widespread global concerns around inflation and the consequent rise in global interest rates, with central bankers of developed nations already tightening their belts and starting to raise policy rates.

In the policy statement, the MPC was silent on how the central bank proposes to manage the enhanced government borrowing programme that is going to kick in, starting April, pursuant to the expansionary Union Budget announced earlier this month. Debt markets will be wary about the increased supply in the new financial year, and will want clarity around the extent to which the RBI will support the borrowing through OMOs, G-SAPs, Operation Twist, etc. The RBI has probably put off this discussion for the April policy.

Also read: RBI takes another step towards policy normalisation by restoring liquidity framework

On the liquidity front, the RBI is satisfied that the liquidity injection measures undertaken by it over the past couple of years have achieved the desired objective of maintaining financial stability through the pandemic. While the RBI has already undertaken the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to suck out excess liquidity from the money markets, it is now looking to rebalance liquidity on a dynamic basis. While on the one hand the accommodative stance continues (for now), on the other hand, given the ongoing liquidity surplus (though lower than in 2021), the RBI proposes to restore the pre-pandemic liquidity management framework. Towards this, it will use variable rate repos (VRRs) and variable rate reverse repos (VRRRs) of 14 days as the main liquidity management tools, with intermittent fine-tuning, and limiting the use of the fixed-rate reverse repo and MSF windows. Given this shift, the overnight rates are likely to settle somewhere near the repo rate.

Also read: RBI Monetary Policy | Governor Das’ crypto warning has a message for government

To summarise, the RBI is possibly buying some time before it decides about moving out of its accommodative stance and graduating towards a more directional change in interest rates. The debt markets have reacted positively to the pause in this policy; however, the celebration could be short-lived. The key ponderables in the near-term for the markets would be (a) how the RBI will manage the escalated borrowing in the next year and maintain an orderly yield curve, and (b) the global inflation trends and the Fed aggressive posture on the one hand and a soft and accommodative RBI on the other hand, and the likely impact on foreign debt flows as well as the Rupee. The enhancement of the Voluntary Retention Route limits may give some relief to the g-sec markets, in absence of any firm guidance on inclusion of Indian debt securities in the global bond indices.

RBI possibly buying time before moving out of accommodative stance: Unmesh Kulkarni of Julius Baer India

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On the liquidity front, the RBI is satisfied that the liquidity injection measures undertaken by it over the past couple of years have achieved the desired objective of maintaining financial stability through the pandemic.

RBI possibly buying time before moving out of accommodative stance: Unmesh  Kulkarni of Julius Baer India

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (RBI MPC) struck a surprisingly dovish chord yet again in this policy, choosing to keep all the key rates unchanged, including the Reverse Repo Rate.

The Repo-Reverse Repo policy corridor had widened since the onset of the pandemic, from the conventional 25 bps to 65 bps, as the RBI gave the much-needed liquidity boost in 2020 to manage financial stability during the pandemic. There was a wide consensus among market participants this time, that given the ongoing liquidity normalization by the RBI, it would hike the reverse repo rate by a modest 15 bps to perhaps even 25 bps. However, the RBI has chosen to stay on the sidelines for now, citing downside risks to the economy from the Omicron wave and therefore focusing more on ensuring a strong and sustainable economic recovery rather than fighting the current inflationary trends.

Also read - RBI’s dovishness delights stock market but risks lurk

On the inflation front, the RBI finds the current high prints of CPI inflation to be more on account of unfavourable base effects rather than any structural trend, and expects the CPI to moderate in the second half of FY 2022-23. What is noticeable is that the RBI, at this point in time, does not seem to be too concerned about the persistent high global oil prices (although it views this as a risk) and is also somewhat disregarding the widespread global concerns around inflation and the consequent rise in global interest rates, with central bankers of developed nations already tightening their belts and starting to raise policy rates.

In the policy statement, the MPC was silent on how the central bank proposes to manage the enhanced government borrowing programme that is going to kick in, starting April, pursuant to the expansionary Union Budget announced earlier this month. Debt markets will be wary about the increased supply in the new financial year, and will want clarity around the extent to which the RBI will support the borrowing through OMOs, G-SAPs, Operation Twist, etc. The RBI has probably put off this discussion for the April policy.

Also read: RBI takes another step towards policy normalisation by restoring liquidity framework

On the liquidity front, the RBI is satisfied that the liquidity injection measures undertaken by it over the past couple of years have achieved the desired objective of maintaining financial stability through the pandemic. While the RBI has already undertaken the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auctions to suck out excess liquidity from the money markets, it is now looking to rebalance liquidity on a dynamic basis. While on the one hand the accommodative stance continues (for now), on the other hand, given the ongoing liquidity surplus (though lower than in 2021), the RBI proposes to restore the pre-pandemic liquidity management framework. Towards this, it will use variable rate repos (VRRs) and variable rate reverse repos (VRRRs) of 14 days as the main liquidity management tools, with intermittent fine-tuning, and limiting the use of the fixed-rate reverse repo and MSF windows. Given this shift, the overnight rates are likely to settle somewhere near the repo rate.

Also read: RBI Monetary Policy | Governor Das’ crypto warning has a message for government

To summarise, the RBI is possibly buying some time before it decides about moving out of its accommodative stance and graduating towards a more directional change in interest rates. The debt markets have reacted positively to the pause in this policy; however, the celebration could be short-lived. The key ponderables in the near-term for the markets would be (a) how the RBI will manage the escalated borrowing in the next year and maintain an orderly yield curve, and (b) the global inflation trends and the Fed aggressive posture on the one hand and a soft and accommodative RBI on the other hand, and the likely impact on foreign debt flows as well as the Rupee. The enhancement of the Voluntary Retention Route limits may give some relief to the g-sec markets, in absence of any firm guidance on inclusion of Indian debt securities in the global bond indices.

The debt markets were actually prepared for a reverse repo rate hike in this policy, and it was possibly an opportune time to do the “shift”. So was this a missed opportunity?

RIL invests Rs 50.16 crore in Bengaluru-based EV tech company Altigreen

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RNEL will buy compulsorily convertible preference shares of the Bengaluru-based company, which Altigreen is an electric vehicle technology and solutions company for commercial last mile transportation through 2-,3-, 4-wheeled vehicles.

RIL acquires 54% stake in robotics firm - Hindustan Times

Reliance Industries' arm Reliance New Energy Limited (RNEL) has entered into an agreement to invest Rs 50.16 crore in Altigreen Propulsion Labs Private Limited (Altigreen), the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate said Thursday.

RNEL will buy compulsorily convertible preference shares of the Bengaluru-based company, which Altigreen is an electric vehicle technology and solutions company for commercial last mile transportation through 2-,3-, 4-wheeled vehicles. The transaction is proposed to be completed before March 2022.

“The investment is part of our Company's strategic intent of collaborating with innovative companies in New Energy and New Mobility ecosystems,” RIL said.

RIL did not disclose the stake that it will acquire upon the conversion of the shares in Altigreen.

Altigreen has developed an E3 vehicle and its vehicles are built in-house in Bangalore on a 100% indigenous mobility platform. It currently has presence in 60 countries with 26 global Patents.

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Budget capex not as high as it sounds: CRISIL Research

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The research wing of the agency said, if one excludes the Rs 1 lakh crore of loans to states for capex included in the headline figure of Rs 7.50 lakh crore or 2.91 per cent, the actual spend in FY23, will go down to 2.58 per cent of GDP, which is barely at par with the revised estimate of FY22.

Budget capex not as high as it sounds: Crisil Research, Infra News, ET Infra

Amid FY23 Union Budget’s focus on investments, leading domestic credit rating agency CRISIL on Wednesday said that the capital expenditure is ”not as high as it sounds”.

It, however, was quick to add that considering that governments usually tend to cut capex during a crisis, the government has maintained its focus on growth-spurring initiatives amid the pandemic.

The research wing of the agency said, if one excludes the Rs 1 lakh crore of loans to states for capex included in the headline figure of Rs 7.50 lakh crore or 2.91 per cent, the actual spend in FY23, will go down to 2.58 per cent of GDP, which is barely at par with the revised estimate of FY22.

The report also pointed out that the overall number showing a rise has been ’offset’ through a reduction in internal and extra budgetary resources (IEBR), which funds capex of central public sector enterprises (CPSEs).

IEBR has been budgeted at 1.82 per cent of GDP for the next fiscal, much lower than the pre-pandemic average (fiscals 2018-20) of 3.33 per cent, it said, attributing the same to poor capex execution by CPSEs lately.

The overall central capex for FY22 which is the sum of effective budgetary capex and IEBR, would remain intact at 5.96 per cent of GDP for next fiscal, the same as pre-pandemic average between 2018-20.

It can be noted that many quarters had hailed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman for her budget speech that mentioned an over 35 per cent jump in capex for FY23, to help revive growth, which has suffered in the pandemic.

Additionally, on the revised estimates for FY22, showing a rise in capex to 2.60 per cent from the budget estimate of 2.39 per cent, the CRISIL report explained that this is due to a one-time expenditure of Rs 51,971 crore towards Air India’s liabilities.

Noting that the government has been able to fully spend its capex budget, the report said in the last two fiscal, a bulk of expenditure happened in the last quarter and made a plea for frontloading of the committed money to help the demand process.

The mix of the capex budgeted for FY23 favours employment, the report said, noting the focus on roads and highways and railways sectors.However, the commitment to defence, another jobs-intensive area, has softened a bit, it said.

It also said that the states will have to "make haste" in utilizing the space offered by the Union Budget by doubling down on their commitment and make full use of the increased capex loans.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to address RBI board on February 14

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The meeting has been scheduled for February 14 where she would be addressing the board members and talk about announcements made in the Budget to perk up growth hit by three waves of COVID-19, sources said.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to address RBI board on Feb 14 |  Business Standard News

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to address the post-budget meeting of the RBI’s central board on Monday and highlight key points of the Union Budget 2022-23, including the fiscal consolidation roadmap and high capex plan.

It has been a custom that the finance minister addresses the RBI board, consisting of RBI Governor and existing four deputy governors, after the budget.

The meeting has been scheduled for February 14 where she would be addressing the board members and talk about announcements made in the Budget to perk up growth hit by three waves of COVID-19, sources said.

The Budget 2022-23 presented earlier this month estimates a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 11.1 percent.

The government expects this growth to be fuelled by a massive capital spending programme outlined in the Budget with a view to crowd-in private investment by reinvigorating economic activities and creating

The finance minister raised capital expenditure (capex) by 35.4 percent for the financial year 2022-23 to Rs 7.5 lakh crore to continue the public investment-led recovery of the pandemic-battered economy. The capex this year is pegged at Rs 5.5 lakh crore.

The spending on building multimodal logistics parks, metro systems, highways, and trains is expected to create demand for the private sector as all the projects are to be implemented through contractors.

With regard to borrowing, the government plans to borrow a record Rs 11.6 lakh crore from the market in 2022-23 to meet its expenditure requirement to prop up the economy.

This is nearly Rs 2 lakh crore higher than the current year’s Budget estimate of Rs 9.7 lakh crore.

Even the gross borrowing for the next financial year will be the highest-ever at Rs 14,95,000 crore as against Rs 12,05,500 crore Budget Estimate (BE) for 2021-22.

Fiscal deficit — the excess of government expenditure over its revenues — is estimated to come down to 6.4 percent of GDP next year as against 6.9 percent pegged for the current fiscal ending March 31.

The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the status quo on the key policy rate in its next bi-monthly monetary policy to be announced on Thursday in view of elevated level of inflation.

Experts, however, are of the opinion that RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) may change the policy stance from 'accommodative' to 'neutral' and tinker with the reverse-repo rate as part of the liquidity normalisation process.

The MPC has been mandated by the government to keep the inflation in the range of 2-6 percent.

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