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After India's economy contracted by a sharp 7 percent in 2020, Goldman Sachs pegged the economy to grow at 8 percent in 2021 and 9.1 percent in 2022.

It earlier estimated India's economic growth to 11.1 percent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022.

It expects consumption and investment to be the key drivers of growth in 2022.

"We expect consumption to be an important contributor to growth in 2022, as the economy fully re-opens driven by a notable improvement in the virus situation and adequate progress on vaccination," Goldman Sachs said in a report.

"We also expect government capital spending to continue, see nascent signs of a private corporate capex recovery, and a revival in housing investment," it added.

The brokerage also forecasts the headline CPI inflation to increase to 5.8 percent in 2022 from 5.2 percent in 2021, led by an increase in core inflation as manufacturers pass on input cost increases to consumers as demand recovers with full economic re-opening.

Santanu Sengupta, India economist, Goldman Sachs said," Given higher oil prices and the domestic demand recovery, the current account is going to open up and the deficit in our estimation is going to go up from 0.9 percent of GDP to 1.5 percent of GDP."

The brokerage also expects cumulative 75 basis points of repo rate hikes in 2022. 

"India did a lot in terms of  liquidity loosening, keeping the banking system liquidity in surplus throughout the Covid period, and it had cut reverse repo rate. So, what you're seeing now is the reversal of that liquidity loosening. So, the banking system liquidity will get tighter over time. And at some point of time, the policy corridor will be narrowed that that is the reverse reverse repo rate will be hiked," said Sengupta.

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The Union minister inaugurated work pertaining to health, education, urban infrastructure and disaster management — amounting to Rs 130.49 crore, an official spokesman said.

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The GST hike was notified by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) on November 18

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The European Commission, which conducted the investigation, has set duties of 10.2% for Indonesia’s IRNC and 20.2% for other Indonesian producers, the EU official journal said on Thursday.

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Several decisions that are part and parcel of monetary policy are no longer within the purview of the RBI’s monetary policy committee 

The Report on Currency and Finance published in February 2021 made an extraordinary statement that, “in its endeavour to achieve the policy rate voted upon by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), decisions involving a change in the RR (Reverse Repo) and the MSF (Marginal Standing Facility) rate and announcements thereof may be shifted out of the MPC resolution to the Reserve Bank’s Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies”.  Accordingly, while the Policy Repo Rate (PRR) alone remains in the preserve of the Monetary Policy Committee,  the MSF rate, Fixed Reverse Repo Rate (FRRR) as also the width of the corridor move to the domain of RBI.  This means that, with no public debate, the powers of the Monetary Policy Committee were drastically clipped.

Indeed, Jayanth Varma’s exasperation in the MPC minutes on August 6, 2021 was evident when he said, “if the reverse repo rate does not fall within the remit of the MPC, then the announcement of this rate should be in the Governor’s statement and not in the MPC’s statement”.

While such a step is flawed and the powers should be restored to the MPC at the earliest, it could be interesting to understand the possible compulsions that drove RBI to such an extreme step and its ramifications.

The one year ahead mean inflation expectations of urban households started breaching 9 per cent from November 2019 onwards.  From May 2020 onwards, they increased to 10 per cent consistently before reaching 11.5 per cent in July 2021.  In sync, retail inflation, which had breached 4 per cent in October 2019, surged ahead to 7.6 per cent by January 2020.  Thereafter, during 2020-21, average retail inflation at 6.2 per cent stood stubbornly higher than the upper tolerance threshold level of 6.0 per cent for eight consecutive months ending November 2020.  Core inflation has also persisted at around 6 per cent during recent times.

Amid this rising inflationary backdrop for almost two years (though it owed much to supply disruptions and other extraneous factors), apparently RBI was unable to convince some external members of MPC to continue with unprecedented accommodative monetary policies, which probably led to constraining the MPC’s jurisdiction.

Though no reason was offered behind such an unprecedented step, one elite argument is sometimes heard that the MPC’s jurisdiction is narrow i.e., achieving 4 per cent inflation in a stable manner while supporting growth.  The mandate for RBI is, however, very wide e.g., achieving financial stability, issuance of currency, maintaining integrity in the banking system, financial market and payment system, etc.  On closer scrutiny, this argument merely tries to create a smokescreen and puff up the role of RBI while undermining that of the MPC.  We often forget the simple truth that achieving low and stable inflation is the best medicine for ensuring financial stability, as also help achieving the RBI’s other mandates.

The RBI initially made the width of the corridor between the repo and reverse repo rates asymmetric--the gap between PRR and FRRR (the lower part of the corridor) was widened from 25 bps to 40 bps on March 27, 2020, leading to increase in total width of the corridor from 50 bps to 65 bps.  On April 17, 2020, FRRR alone was further reduced by 25 bps to 3.75 percent thereby taking the total width wider to 90 bps, without consulting the MPC.

Apart from not changing the PRR at 4.00 per cent since May 22, 2020, RBI started injecting enormous amount of liquidity. It introduced discretionary sector-specific measures from 2020-21 e.g., Targeted Long Term Repo Operations (TLTRO) 1.0 and TLTRO 2.0, Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) including OMO purchases, Refinance to NABARD, SIDBI, etc., term liquidity for emergency health services and so on.  These led to a primary liquidity injection of as much as Rs. 10 lakh crore thereby generating, with a money multiplier of 1.5, additional system liquidity of about Rs. 15 lakh crore during this period, on top of substantial amount of foreign inflows into the economy.

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That accommodative monetary policy is required during the unprecedented pandemic years is incontrovertible.  What is, however, puzzling is that despite keeping PRR unchanged, RBI’s extra-ordinary accommodative stance continued even with adjusted non-food credit growth stagnating around a mere 6 percent and then sterilizing surplus liquidity.  In fact, RBI had to progressively increase its Variable Reverse Repo Rate (VRRR) auctions from Rs. 2 lakh crore during April-July 2021 to Rs. 4 lakh crore on September 24, 2021 apart from using fine tuning operations and fixed rate Reverse Repo operations for sterilizations. Nevertheless, outstanding net durable surplus liquidity skyrocketed from Rs. 3.9 lakh crore on May 22, 2020 to Rs. 11.8 lakh crore on October 22, 2021.

The pertinent point is, therefore, whether such over-activism in liquidity injection was warranted.  In fact, RBI’s resolve to anchor retail inflation to 4 per cent is getting contaminated with its over-activism.  However, such over-activism has been a win-win-win situation for the Government (financing of the ballooning of net borrowing in 2020-21, and in 2021-22 by RBI through G-SAP and OMOs), the banking sector (exchanging of its illiquid securities with liquid securities from RBI) as well as RBI (building of additional stock of government securities for sterilising surplus liquidity in the absence of Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS).

Further, RBI’s diligence in anchoring the operating target (weighted average call rate) to the PRR has got unhinged, as it has been prevailing consistently below the FRRR for long now.  Similarly, its transmission of monetary impulse flows rather from discretionary liquidity injections to lending/deposit rates of banks instead of from PRR.

On instruments of sterilization, VRRR auctions up to 14/28 days, fine tuning operations and FRRR are poor substitutes compared to the longer term securities issued under MSS.  Shelving MSS is leading to RBI becoming the likely depository of illiquid securities.  It is difficult for a government with a large deficit to launch MSS, but given the geo-political situation, India could receive huge inflows going forward.  Hence, RBI’s incremental approach may prove inadequate.

The least the RBI should do now is retreat from exceptional liquidity, anchor inflation expectations, retrieve its operational independence and of course restore the MPC’s powers.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

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Many of the iPhone 13 models, including the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro Max, have a longer wait time on several online and offline channels.

Apple may sell over 80 million units of the new iPhone 13 models during the first fiscal quarter of 2022, according to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. The analyst believes that the company will achieve the feat despite the ongoing chip shortage.

Ives in his investor note viewed by AppleInsider stated that the demand for iPhone 13 series is surpassing supply by 15 percent. Many of the iPhone 13 models, including the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro Max, have a longer wait time on several online and offline channels. A recent report claimed that the gap between supply and demand will last until February 2022. However, despite the constraints, Ives estimates over 80 million units being shipped by Appel during the fiscal quarter.

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“Despite the chip shortage and Rubik's Cube logistics that Apple (and every other technology, auto, and retail vendor) is dealing with we are seeing tremendous demand trends both in the US and China for iPhone 13 which is a positive sign that Apple could exceed selling 80 million iPhone units in the quarter with stronger Pro versions driving higher ASPs," Ives said. The analyst further stated that Apple is on track to sell around 40 million iPhone units between Black Friday and Christmas, which could represent a record holiday pace for the company.

The iPhone 13 models received some major upgrades in the camera and battery department, with the Pro models getting major display upgrades as well. Apple launched the four iPhone 13 models with a larger battery, a faster A15 Bionic chip, up to three camera sensors on the back, each packing a larger sensor.

The iPhone 13 price in India starts at Rs 79,900 for the base 128GB storage. iPhone 13 mini, on the other hand, is available for Rs 69,900. iPhone 13 Pro Max price in India starts at Rs 1,29,900 for the base 128GB model, whereas the iPhone 13 Pro India price starts at Rs 1,19,900.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

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Benchmark indices ended on negative note on November 16 with Nifty below 18000 dragged by the bank, pharma, oil & gas and metals stocks.

At close, the Sensex was down 396.34 points or 0.65% at 60,322.37, and the Nifty was down 110.30 points or 0.61% at 17,999.20. About 1496 shares have advanced, 1639 shares declined, and 122 shares are unchanged.

Shree Cements, Reliance Industries, Hindalco Industries, Tata Consumer Products, SBI were among the major Nifty losers. However, gainers included Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp and Tech Mahindra.

Among sectors, the PSU Bank index shed 2 percent, while Nifty Bank, Energy and Pharma indices down 1 percent each. However, Auto index added over 2 percent. The BSE midcap index was down 0.22 percent, while the smallcap index ended with marginal gains.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if manages to close above 18000 level then expect some sharp rise in the market in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some decline can be seen. Avoid open short sell positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.50 PM

Just In:

China overtakes US in wealth gain over last two decade.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

NATURALGAS Trading View:

NG is trading at 380.If it manages to hold above 377 level then expect it to rise till 384-385 levels quite soon and if it breaks and trade below 377 level then some decline can be seen in it. Buy from every decline is recommended in NG for today.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is still range bound.Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 18080 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 18040 level which is acting as immediate support then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 6064.If it manages to trade and sustain above 6080 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 6040 level then some decline can happen in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is still trading with minor losses however it is likely to show good upmove and set the right roads for PAYTM shares listing on 18 Nov. 

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 18100 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 18060 level then some decline can follow in the market. 

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Just In:

ED arrests Lalit Goyal, chairman of IREO Group in an alleged money laundering case.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 737.45.If it breaks and trade below 737 level then expect some further decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 738.50 level then some upmove can be seen in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is showing some strength now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 18100 level then expect some further upmove and if it breaks and trade below 18060 level then some decline can be seen in the market. Use all lows as an opportunity to go long in the market.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex at days low, down 300 pts; RIL falls 2%, SBI 1.5%

2. Indian Railways likely to reduce passenger fares by around 15%

3. Lenders to sell Videocon Oil Ventures, Amtek Auto debt to NARCL

4. Centres tax devolution to states doubled to Rs 95K cr in Nov: FM

5. Trade group to protest against e-com websites, alleges drug sale

6. Policybazaar surges 16% after strong debut, up 43% against issue price

7. Fundraising to conclude in current fiscal, says Vodafone Idea

8. NIIT surges 41% in one week on strong Q2 results

9. Auto shares in focus; Motherson Sumi, Varroc, Sharda Motor rally up to 10%

10. More middle-class Indians making big gains from bourses than before

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After flat start nifty is now trading in red zone. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 18000 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 18040 level then some pull back can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For Today:

Nifty is likely to turn volatile as the day progresses. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 18140 level then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 18080 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has been included to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index in the emerging markets category for the fourth year in a row, according to the firm.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals' stock dropped over 3% intraday to Rs 516.45 on November 16 after Morgan Stanley maintained a "underweight" rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 554.

The main business should expand in the low to mid-teens with consistent margins, but cash conversion and speciality monetisation are the key value drivers, according to the report.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals been named to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) in the emerging markets category for the fourth year in a row, the business said on November 16.

Global investors, financial analysts, and other stakeholders see inclusion on this list as very prestigious, and it serves as a standard for investors that include sustainability considerations into their portfolios, according to the report.

Glenn Saldanha, Chairman and Managing Director of Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, said, "Our inclusion in the coveted Dow Jones Sustainability Indices (DJSI) for the fourth consecutive year is a validation of our commitment to sustainability and reiterates our consistent performance across all sustainability indicators."

The addition of the DJSI underscores our dedication to uphold our sustainability strategy, which incorporates Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles to benefit our operations, stakeholders, communities, and the world as a whole."

On our live blog, you can follow all of the market action.

Other brokerages have the following to say about the stock and the company:

Lilladher Prabhudas

Glenmark Pharma has been able to sustain a high run-rate of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation). Debt will continue to decline in FY23, owing to flat research and development costs and low capex requirements. While an increase in sales in the United States would be critical for earnings growth.

Over FY21-24E, we've assumed a 12 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in EPS.

Any prospective out-licensing arrangements at Ichnos' (R&D arm) will be critical in the short term for any further meaningful debt reduction. With a target price of Rs 600 per share and a 15x FY23E P/E ratio, we recommend "accumulate."

Motilal Oswal Motilal Oswal Motilal Oswal

We cut our EPS forecasts for FY22 and FY23 by 4% each, owing to a) reduced momentum in the US generics market due to product-specific difficulties, b) continued pricing pressure on the existing portfolio, c) higher raw material costs, and d) higher logistic expenses.

Over FY21–23E, we predict an 11 percent profitability CAGR, driven by a 3%/5%/11% sales CAGR in the US/DF/Europe segment.

We estimate return ratios to remain in the mid-teens as EBITDA margins remain constant. On a limited upside from present levels, we remain "neutral."

The management expects sales growth of 10-15% in FY22 and a margin of roughly 19%. Over FY21-23E, a 13 percent PAT CAGR would be aided by a healthy India and US outlook, as well as debt reduction. Maintain a "buy" rating with a target price of Rs 625 based on a 15x FY23 P/E ratio.

Glenmark Pharma was trading at Rs 518.50 on the BSE at 10:08 a.m., down Rs 17.25, or 3.22 percent.

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Insurance sector to remain highly competitive, and LIC is game for asserts Kumar

As the government pushes to list the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), the Chairman of the country's largest insurer sounded optimistic about meeting the March 2022 deadline,  Chairman, LIC, laid out the IPO road map for the insurance giant, highlighted the key challenges faced on the way to getting listed on the bourses and how LIC is preparing for heightened compliance and answerability to all shareholders and investors post listing. Apart from the IPO, stake sale of IDBI Bank is the other major task at hand for LIC. "Strategic investment in IDBI Bank has paid off," said LIC Chairman, elaborating why he sees value in the bank even going forward and how LIC would like to continue its relationship with IDBI even after the sale is concluded.

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He also gave an overview of the domestic insurance industry, flagging the high protection gap as a key challenge. While LIC continues to enjoy a 65 percent market share, it is eyeing a larger pie with its digital initiatives that are under way and an increased thrust on the bancassurance channel, the chairman said, as he shared the company's plan to tap the millennials. He believes that the sector will continue to be highly competitive, and LIC is ready for it. The chairman of the IPO-bound insurer sounded a bit cautious about the equity markets, even as LIC continues to be net buyer in the market despite booking profits over the past few months. He reiterated that LIC invests for the long haul and does not chase short-term gains.

Article Source:-  Moneycontrol

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Piyush Goyal said that merchandise exports during April-October this fiscal stood at $232 billion and total FDI during the first four months of this fiscal rose by 62 per cent.