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The government and corporates must work together for a quick economic recovery, State Bank of India Chairman Rajnish Kumar said, adding that investment in infrastructure, in particular, should be stepped up.

“The government and corporates have to open up their wallets to invest … their actions should go hand-in-hand for a quick economic recovery since the vital middle class remains cautious amid ongoing unlocking of the economy,” 

Kumar added that increase in expenditure by both parties is “important” as money brought into the system will give consumption demand and infrastructure investment a boost. He also noted that direct benefit transfer schemes had put money directly in the hands of people, thus boosting rural demand.

“The middle class also plays a pivotal role, and for that segment to spend, the fear of COVID-19 has to go away,” he said.

The state lender's chief added that since the loan moratorium achieved its limited purpose, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) now has to look at providing banks with restructuring relief “which would then determine who would qualify for a loan recast.”

“There is growing consensus that moratorium may not be needed, but there should be flexibility in loan repayments through restructuring and relaxing of provisioning norms for such rejig,” he noted and pointed out that the industry and bankers are keen to revive cash-strapped businesses and “future course of action should be left to the bank and the borrower.”

While economists have forecasted up to 10 percent contraction in GDP, Kumar was optimistic, stating that June saw fairly good recovery and many industries have “come back 75-80 percent of capacity utilisation levels.”

He, however, acknowledged that the lockdown has disrupted supply chains as some sourcing units may be in containment areas. “Overall, I believe we are in a much better position than where we were in April and May,” he said.

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Notwithstanding the rise in inflation of late, the Monetary Policy Committee may go in for another rate cut at its August's policy review to revive the economy, Barclays said on July 30.

The foreign brokerage analysts confirmed that the high inflation is adding confusion to the Reserve Bank of India's policy outlook, but pitched for a 0.25 percent cut to generate demand urging the central bank to "throw caution to the wind."

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation, surpassed the upper end of the RBI's target of 6 percent in June.

As per government data, retail inflation had increased to 6.09 percent in June, mainly on account of higher prices of food items. RBI mainly factors in the retail inflation while deciding its bi-monthly monetary policy.

The central bank has cut rates by a steep 1.15 percent in two actions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has adversely affected the economy.

A slew of other measures, especially to ensure greater liquidity, have also been introduced by RBI.

"We forecast the RBI will continue easing, by cutting the repo rate at least 0.25 percent at its next policy meeting," the analysts said, ahead of the meeting of the monetary policy committee to be conducted between August 4 and 6.

They added that the impact on the activity favours more easing measures rather than less, and for having the cuts faster rather than at a deliberate pace.

"We do not believe the argument of saving 'ammunition' for future cuts holds water, given the inherent lags in transmission of policy rates into lending rates," it added.

Meanwhile, Singaporean lender DBS Bank said it sees "slightly higher odds" for a pause in the rate cuts at the upcoming review of the monetary policy but added that there will be cuts of 0.50 percent between October to March 2021.

It pointed out that monetary policy committee rejig and a review of the inflation mandate will be the aspects to watch out for, but added that it does not anticipate any change from the current practice of headline consumer price inflation as the main anchor for the monetary policy.

Financial sector health will also be a priority at the monetary policy review, it said, pointing to the grim estimates of a record surge in the stock of dud assets presented by the RBI's financial stability report last week.

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Students need not stick to the traditional three-year or four-year degree programmes under the National Education Policy(NEP) 2020 approved by the Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Under the NEP, a student can decide whether to complete the full-year programme for entry and exit.

If one year is completed, a student can get a certificate. If the student completes two years, a diploma would be provided. If the three-year or four-year programme is completed, then the degree will be awarded.

A single regulator for higher education will be set up for this purpose.

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The domestic sugar production is likely to go up by 12 per cent to 30.5 million tonnes (MT) during the sugar year 2021, beginning October, due to availability of sugarcane in Maharashtra and Karnataka, according to a report.

The sugar production in India is likely to increase by 12.1 percent to 30.5MT YoY in sugar year (SY) 2021, after adjusting for the impact of the diversion of B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice for ethanol manufacture, ICRA said in a report.

The production is likely to increase in SY2021, because of higher production in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which was adversely impacted in the previous year due to drought.

In addition, heavy rainfall and waterlogging during the last year (August – September 2019) adversely impacted the sugarcane crop in a few regions of Maharashtra and North Karnataka for SY2020, the report said.

ICRA expects the closing stocks for SY2020 at around 11.0 - 11.5MT after considering the consumption of 25MT (decline of 3.8 percent YoY) and exports of 5-5.5MT.

This along with higher sugar production for SY2021 is likely to result in domestic sugar availability of around 42MT.

In the light of the continuing sugar surplus scenario in the domestic market, continued government support would be critical for industry's profitability, it added.

“This increase in production is majorly driven by the increase in cane availability in Maharashtra and Karnataka in SY2021. The domestic sugar consumption was adversely impacted by the nationwide lockdown owing to COVID-19 pandemic due to loss of demand on account either closure or limited operations of several beverage/food manufacturing units during April-May 2020," ICRA Ratings Senior Vice President and Group Head Sabyasachi Majumdar said.

He said, with the easing of lockdown rules, the consumption is back to pre-COVID levels in June-July 2020.

"While we expect a decline in the sugar consumption in SY2020, the same is likely to go back to 26MT levels in SY2021. The closing stocks are expected at around 10.5-11.0MT for the SY2021 season, which is higher when compared to the normative sugar stock levels," he added.

Without considering the impact of the diversion of B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice for ethanol manufacture in SY2020, the production is expected to be around 32MT, the report stated.

In Maharashtra, production is expected to increase by 64 percent YoY at 10.1MT and in Karnataka, by 26 percent YoY to around 4.3MT in SY2021.

In UP, production is likely to decline by 3 percent YoY to 12.3MT, the report added.

In SY2020, the production was higher by around 0.5-0.6MT than anticipated because the cane which was generally used by the local gur and khandsari manufacturers, got diverted to sugar mills with the former's operations prematurely shut due to the lockdown, it said.

Meanwhile, the report said that the exports were on the lower side during the lockdown period given the modest port operations owing to the logistics issues and labour shortage, but the pace picked up in May-June 2020.

ICRA expects exports of around 5-5.5MT for SY2020.

Assuming the government continues support for exports for SY2021, considering the surplus scenario in the domestic market, exports are likely to be similar to the SY2020 figures, it added.

The sugar prices moderated closer to MSP ( minimum selling price) levels of Rs 31 per kg in March – May during lockdown period and then picked up to Rs 32-32.5 per kg in June.

The pick-up in consumption and pace of sugar exports is likely to support the sugar prices in the near term.

However, given the sugar surplus scenario, any significant increase in the sugar prices is ruled out, the ICRA report added.

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The government plans to auction five to six mineral blocks, including iron ore and bauxite mines, in Madhya Pradesh over the next three months, according to an official. Of the 11 blocks that were put on sale by the state recently, there were takers for only five blocks and six mines received no interest from bidders.

"The six blocks had no bidders as they are commercially not viable and do not have very good market value," the official said.

Of these mines likely to be auctioned in the three months' time in Madhya Pradesh, there will be two bauxite blocks, one iron ore and one rock phosphate, he said.

The state saw auction of one mineral block in FY 2016-17, five mines in 2018-19 and two blocks in the last fiscal.

Of the eight blocks auctioned, three are limestone mines, two are graphite, two are diamond and one iron ore block.

Total revenue from the blocks to the government over a period of 50 years is expected at Rs 28,415.60 crore.

The Centre had last month asked each state having mineral resources to identify at least five new mining projects for auction with pre-embedded clearance on a pilot basis with a view to expediting the sale process as well as operationalisation of the blocks.

The mines ministry has released guidelines for the auction of mineral blocks with pre-embedded clearances as it explores ways to address the key issue of delay in mining production due to lack of various approvals such as forest and environment permissions.

The identified blocks would be auctioned along with other blocks without pre-embedded clearances.

Under the guidelines, the Centre has asked states to set up a project monitoring unit (PMU) to complete the preparatory work for obtaining requisite clearances, approvals and related work.

The unit would obtain all the clearances for starting a mining project.

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India's electricity generation during the first half of July fell at a slower pace than in June, provisional government data showed, as industries and commercial establishments opened up after further following gradual easing of lockdowns.

Power generation fell 3.1 percent in the first 15 days of July compared with the same period last year, a Reuters analysis of daily load despatch data from federal grid operator POSOCO showed, compared with a 9.9 percent fall in June.

In the second half of June, electricity generation declined 5.3 percent.

While power use has picked up from previous months when India was under a strict lockdown, electricity demand - which is impacted by seasonal changes - is still lower when compared with the same periods from the previous year.

Industries and offices account for over half of India's annual power use. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been citing electricity consumption to show there are "greenshoots" in the Indian economy.

Major industrial states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat in the west and Tamil Nadu in the south continued to witness steep drops in electricity use amid higher incidence of coronavirus cases.

However, many states with smaller yet significant industrial profiles saw growth in power demand for the first time since Modi announced a nationwide lockdown in March.

The northern state of Uttar Pradesh - India's most populous and home to the largest number of medium and small scale enterprises (MSMEs) in the country - witnessed a 10.1 percent growth in electricity use.

Other states including Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh - all of which are known for MSMEs - saw an uptick in power demand.

Seasonal factors including hot weather could have fuelled higher power demand.

The states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have also seen a rise in coronavirus cases in the recent days, which could impact power demand. Bihar has also announced a lockdown beginning Thursday and ending July 31.

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Contracting for the fourth straight month, India's exports declined by 12.41 per cent to $21.91 billion in June mainly due to drop in shipments of petroleum, textiles, engineering goods, and gems and jewellery items. Imports too plunged 47.59 per cent to $21.11 billion in June, leaving a trade surplus of $0.79 billion, compared to a deficit of $15.28 billion in the same month of the last year, according to the data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Wednesday.

During April-June 2020, exports fell by 36.71 per cent to $51.32 billion, while imports shrank by 52.43 per cent to $60.44 billion.

The trade deficit stood at $9.12 billion during the two months of the current fiscal.

Oil imports dipped 55.29 per cent to $4.93 billion in June. Gold imports in June plunged by 77.42 per cent to $608.7 million.

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The government is working on creating a "genuine" single window clearance mechanism and mapping the entire land bank available for the industry and industrial development, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday. The minister also said that the government is looking at ways to promote manufacturing of electronic products like LED televisions, CCTVs and is "very keen" to have a semiconductor FAB plant in India.

Besides, to capture  IT services exports data, the ministry is thinking of creating a framework by which it can capture that data.

Goyal said that he has tasked the officers to look at some framework by which the ministry can capture data of IT services exports.

"We are working in DPIIT (Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade) to create the framework of a genuine single window where you do not open doors behind that single window. We are also working on mapping the entire land bank available for industry and industrial development," he said while addressing industry representatives of electronics and software exports.

The minister said that sufficient land is available and "we can make sure that it is available at competitive prices, we can even talk to states".

He added that states can be consulted on issues like affordable power and water supply if the electronics industry wants to set up an entire ecosystem in a state.

"Talk to DPIIT, pick up an area of your choice, where the entire ecosystem can be created and supported and we are willing to go that extra mile whatever it takes to create such a cluster of industry and it should be world-class," he said.

Regarding the demand of export incentives under MEIS (merchandise exports from India scheme), he said the ministry is working on Remission of Duties or Taxes on Export Product (RoDTEP), "so I do not know whether MEIS can really sustain or continue beyond December 2020 or when RoDTEP come to your industry".

He said that no industry can sustain in the long run on "these clutches" and industries which are not dependent on the government are flourishing.

The success of IT, BPO and software is largely because they remain free of government intervention and "to my mind that is what we should gradually move and push towards in the electronics sector also".

He added that the government does not have that kind of endless resources to be able to give that to any and every sector, "so we will have to gradually move towards more and more self-sustainable projects".

He asked the industry to work on creating some clusters where the whole ecosystem can be created with all necessary testing labs, common services, getting plug and play infrastructure to units and ensuring online clearances".

"We really want to see (semiconductor) FAB (plant) coming up quickly. I would urge you to apply your mind and tell us what the government needs to do for that," he said adding "We can even think of setting up a plant near a power plant," he added.

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Given the severity of the country's economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a scope for more near term fiscal support in India, especially for vulnerable households and SMEs, a top IMF official said.

A comprehensive and successful implementation of the existing support measures (in particular, food provision to households) is of paramount importance, said Vitor Gaspar, Director of the International Monetary Fund's Fiscal Affairs Department to PTI.

“Given the severity of the economic situation, in the near-term there is room for more fiscal support, particularly for vulnerable households and SMEs (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises),” he said.

Over the medium-term, India will continue to have a very limited fiscal space, and a credible and well-communicated consolidation plan will be urgently needed once the coronavirus pandemic subsides, Gasper said.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 in India has been substantial and broad-based, he said, adding that high frequency indicators point to a sharp decline in economic activity, as reflected in the industrial production, business sentiment (in the purchasing managers index), vehicle sales and trade.

In the June World Economic Outlook (WEO), growth in fiscal year 20/21 was revised down to -4.5 per cent, he said.

The downward revision compared with the April WEO was driven primarily by the continued rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in India.

“This led the International Monetary Fund to make specific two adjustments. First, the assumed length of the partial lockdown was extended somewhat. Second, and more important, we made more conservative assumptions about the speed of recovery given that the health crisis has not yet been contained,” Gasper said in response to a question.

He said that the near-term growth outlook in India continues to be clouded by the global and domestic slowdown and uncertainties relating to the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the senior IMF official, India's general government fiscal deficit is projected to reach 12.1 per cent of the GDP in fiscal year 20/21, primarily due to weak tax revenues, as well as a denominator effect associated with the negative projected nominal GDP growth -- as with all other macro variables, estimates are highly uncertain.

“Consistent with this, and the deterioration in economic activity, India's public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach about 84 per cent this fiscal year,” Gasper added.

According to Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, the contagion has infected over 12 million people and killed more than 554,000 across the world.

The US is the worst affected country with over 3.1 million cases and more than 1,33,000 deaths. India's COVID-19 caseload stands at 7,93,802 with 21,604 deaths.

The COVID-19, which originated in China's Wuhan city in December last year, has also battered the world economy with the International Monetary Fund saying that the global economy is bound to suffer a "severe recession".

Scientists are racing against time to find a vaccine or medicine for its treatment.

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The Union Cabinet on July 8 approved, among many other things, the proposal to extend the scheme for payment of the employer and employee's provident fund (PF) contribution for three months until August. Under this, the government will make the entire 24 percent contribution towards Employees' Provident Fund (EPF).

The move will offer huge relief to around 3.67 lakh employers and 72.22 lakh employees.

The proposal for extension of this scheme had been announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in May. She had, at the time, announced that the scheme under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMKGY) would be extended for another three months till August.

Addressing media persons following a Cabinet meeting earlier on July 8, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said the decision has been taken in order to facilitate a higher take-home salary for employees and to provide them a breather in payment of PF dues.

Under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan package, the payment of 12 percent of employer and 12 percent employee contribution was made into EPF accounts by the Centre. The benefit was earlier available for the months of March, April and May.

For the salary months of June, July and August, the scheme will cover all the establishments having up to 100 employees, with 90 percent of such employees earning a monthly wage less than Rs 15,000.

The idea behind the move, according to the government, is to offer support to workers and businesses who continue to face financial hardships in light of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown that followed.