WEEKLY NIFTY TRADING VIEW FOR THE WEEK MAY 08, 2017–MAY 14, 2017

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Events to watch this week

Payroll rebound boosts June Fed rate hike chances
Macron poised to win French presidential election
Brexit battle lines harden
European growth picks up

The Week ahead:

The French presidential election takes place on Sunday, 7 May
China reports foreign exchange reserves on Sunday, 7 May
China reports its trade balance on Monday, 8 May
ECB president Mario Draghi addresses the Dutch parliament on Wednesday, 10 May
The Bank of England meets to set interest rates on Thursday, 11 May
The US reports retail sales and its Consumer Price Index on Friday, 12 May

For the week,Global equities extended their gains this week against a backdrop of improved economic growth, particularly in Europe. Slumping commodity prices may prove worrisome down the road, however, with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude falling to nearly a six-month low, ending the week near $45.50, down from $49.00 last Friday. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose modestly, to 2.35%, up 4 basis points on the week. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), held steady near 10.

NIFTY- 9,285.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 2,970barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,070 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.38

MARKET ROUND UP

Key indices settled with small losses as profit booking emerged after indices hit record highs in the recent past. The Sensex settled below the psychological 30,000 mark after regaining that mark during the week. The Nifty had hit record closing high on 4 May 2017.

Key indices had posted decent gains on 4 May 2017 that saw Nifty scaling record closing high on that day after witnessing listless trade in first two sessions of the week. However, drop on the final session of the week tracking weak global stocks caused indices to wrap the week with minor losses.

The market fell in two out of four sessions in truncated trading week. The market remained closed on Monday, 1 May 2017, on account of Maharashtra Day.

The Sensex declined 59.60 points or 0.19% to settle at 29,858.80. The Nifty 50 index skidded 18.75 points or 0.2% to settle at 9,285.30.

The BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 0.54%. The decline in the index was higher than the Sensex's drop in percentage terms. The BSE Small-Cap index shed 0.1%. The decline in the index was lower than the Sensex's fall in percentage terms.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,data released by Markit Economics during market hours on 4 May 2017 showed that the rate of increase in Indian service sector activity weakened in April 2017. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services PMI Business Activity Index was down at 50.2 in April, from 51.5 in March.

Market Economics in a press release issued during market hours on 2 May 2017, said that manufacturing conditions in India improved for the fourth straight month in April. However, the headline Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) remained unchanged at 52.5 in April as in March.

Meanwhile, the combined index of eight core industries comprising nearly 38% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) stood at 202.9 in March 2017, which was 5% higher compared to the index of March 2016. The data was released by the government on 1 May 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:

Tata Steel was down 3.53%. The company announced that Tata Steel UK has completed the sale of its speciality steels business to Liberty House Group for a total consideration of 100 million pounds. The announcement was made during market hours on 2 May 2017.

Housing finance major HDFC rose 0.61%. The company's net profit fell 21.58% to Rs 2044.20 crore on 7.7% decline in total income to Rs 8514.51 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced during market hours on 4 May 2017.

ONGC dropped 1.56%. ONGC Videsh, a 100% subsidiary of ONGC announced that it has encountered exciting result in its well Mariposa-1 which is under drilling in CPO-5 block of Colombia. ONGC Videsh is the operator of the block and holds 70% participating interest and Amerisur Resources holds the remaining 30%. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

TCS gained 2.11%. The company said it has been selected by one of Europe's largest utilities companies Vattenfall-to provide IT services across multiple European operations including Swedan, Germany and the Netherlands. The announcement was made after market hours on 2 May 2017. The managed services agreement is a multi-year partnership in which TCS will be responsible for the development and maintenance of a large number of applications.

Wipro rose 0.88%. The company announced that it has joined Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) as a founding member. EEA is a collaboration of enterprises to promote, develop and implement enterprise grade Ethereum based blockchain applications across industries for specific business use cases. The announcement was made after market hours on 4 May 2017.

ICICI Bank surged 7.2%. The stock was the biggest gainer from the Sensex pack. The bank's net profit jumped 188.5% to Rs 2024.64 crore on 10.8% decline in total income to Rs 16585.76 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016. The result was announced after market hours on 3 May 2017.

Hero MotoCorp gained 1.38%. The company's total two-wheeler sales declined 3.5% to 5.91 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. The two-wheeler industry witnessed heavy retail off-take towards the end of March 2017 in view of the transition from BS III to BS IV vehicles. The announcement was made on 1 May 2017.

Maruti Suzuki India rose 1.88%. The company's total sales rose 19.5% to 1.51 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Domestic sales grew by 23.4% to 1.44 lakh units in April 2017 over April 2016. Exports declined 29.4% to 6,723 units in April 2017 over April 2016. The announcement was made on Monday, 1 May 2017.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,the US Federal Reserve on 3 May 2017, left monetary policy unchanged, as expected, and indicated it remains on track to deliver two more rate increases by year-end. The Fed said that it would not change its interest rate target this month. However, the Fed also stated that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, fuelling hopes among investors for future rate rises.

China's service sector expanded at the slowest pace in nearly a year, a private gauge showed on 4 May 2017, pointing to possible softness in the sector. The Caixin China services purchasing managers' index slipped to 51.5 in April--the lowest since May 2016--from 52.2 in March, Caixin Media Co. and research firm Markit said.

China's nationwide factory activity expanded at a slower pace in April, with a private gauge falling to a seven-month low. The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers' index dropped to 50.3 in April from 51.2 in March, indicating a slower expansion of activity, Caixin Media Co. and research firm market said on 2 May 2017.

Global Economic News:

Nonfarm payrolls rebound
Friday’s US employment report was fairly upbeat, with 211,000 added to payrolls in April versus a downward revised 79,000 in March. The unemployment rate fell to a 4.4%, a 10-year low, though average hourly earnings were restrained, rising a less-than-expected 2.5%. The report paves the way for likely rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve at its June meeting. The Fed earlier this week held rates steady but said weakness in the US economy in the first quarter was likely transitory.

Macron holds formidable lead ahead of Sunday’s vote
Thirty-nine-year-old centrist Emmanuel Macron, seeking elective office for the first time, looks poised to win the French presidency on Sunday. He leads right-wing populist Marine Le Pen by an average of 20 points in opinion polls. The same polls proved quite accurate in the election’s first round, and showed that Macron bested Le Pen in Wednesday’s head-to-head debate. If Macron wins, as expected, two-round parliamentary elections in June will be critical for his fledgling En Marche! party, which will have to cobble together a working majority to allow Macron to govern effectively.

UK–EU divide widens ahead of negotiations
Explosive media reports this week documenting a meeting on 26 April between Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker show just how far apart the two sides are before Brexit negotiations begin in earnest. While the United Kingdom hopes to negotiate the terms of its divorce from the European Union and its future trade relations in parallel, the EU has made clear that exit terms must be well on their way to being ironed out before it will entertain trade talks. Also in dispute is how large a bill the UK will have to foot to exit the EU. Numbers as high as €100 billion were floated in the media this week. Prime Minster May will lead her party into elections on 8 June, so the public spat with the EU this week comes at a fortuitous time for her, as it plays well to the anti-EU faction of the UK electorate.

European economy kicks into gear
Economic growth in the Eurozone grew at an annualized pace of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2017, outstripping US growth, which was an anemic 0.7% annualized rate over the same period. Purchasing managers' indices reported this week suggest that European growth might be accelerating further.

Health care reform bill emerges from US House
After months of Republican infighting, a bill to repeal and replace Obamacare emerged from the US House of Representatives this week. The bill will likely face a stiff challenge in the Senate, where lawmakers will attempt to fashion a bill under the so-called reconciliation rule that won’t require 60 votes for consideration. A Senate vote on the measure is expected to be some months away.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Largest-ever US municipal bankruptcy for Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico filed for a form of bankruptcy this week. The territory is weighed down by approximately $75 billion in debt, making the filing the largest in US history. Detroit’s $9 billion filing held the previous record. A decade-long recession, a shrinking population and a dramatically underfunded pension system forced the territory to seek protection from creditors.

As of 3 May, 357 of the 500 constituents of the S&P 500 Index have reported earnings for the first quarter. Earnings are expected to increase 14.2% from a year ago. Stripping out energy, earnings growth is 10%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to increase 7.2%. Ex energy, they are seen up 5.3%. The next-twelve-months earnings estimate for the S&P 500 is 17.7x.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ALBK	90.30
ANDHRABANK	76.10
ARVIND	426.15

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

LUPIN	1248.30
RELIGARE	183.00

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):

GODREJ PROP	14.00
SREI INFRA	13.92
COROMANDEL INTE.	13.21
CANBK	11.22

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

TATA COMMUNICATION	-11.24
IPCA LABS	-9.62
RELIANCE COMMU	-9.57

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (08May)

Labor Market Conditions

Tuesday (09 may)

NFIB Small Bussiness

Wednesday (10May)

MBA Mortgage Applications

Thursday (11 May)

Jobless Claims& Fed Balance Sheet

Friday (12May)

Consumer Price Index

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy Hindustan Unilever Ltd For Target Rs.1,020.00

Derivative Ideas

* Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) is an Indian consumer goods company based in Mumbai, Maharashtra. It is owned by Anglo-Dutch company Unilever which owns a 67% controlling share in HUL as of March 2015 and is the holding company of HUL. HUL's products include foods, beverages, cleaning agents, personal care products and water purifiers.

* On the charts, it has marginally retraced from its 52-week high i.e. 954 and has formed a fresh buying pivot after consolidating in a narrow range.The chart looks upbeat from hereon and we believe that the prevailing momentum will continue ahead as well and expect of making a new record high soon.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3	S2	S1	NIFTY	R1	R2	R3
9,150	9,230	9,270	9,285.30	9,365	9,410	9,450

As expected Nifty consolidated and traded in a narrow range of 107 points throughout the week but hits new all time high by 10 points on the back of strong up-move in Banking stocks like ICICI Bank and PSU banks as the new ordinance to resolve the bad loans kept the sector in momentum. The result season was mixed with strong performance from ICICI Bank, HDFC, and Marico while muted results from Biocon, Bharat Finance, Dabur and JSW Energy. Core sector output rose by 5% in March, recovering from the one-year low growth rate of 1% in February keeping the industrial segment in focus. Global markets also remained flat as FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged, hinting at hikes in the next meeting in June. Commodities continued to remain under pressure with dollar index trading at sub 100 levels.

Nifty has ended flat down by 0.3% after hitting a new all time high at 9377 reversing the entire week gains on Friday to close at 9,285 levels. There was sharp profit booking in high beta sectors and stocks during the week. Metals, Energy and Auto declined by 4.1%, 2.8% and 1.5% respectively, while IT and Bank Nifty gained by 1.4% and 1%, respectively for the week. CNX Midcaps and Small cap ended flat to negative after hitting an all time high.

Conclusion:

We continue to believe markets would consolidate and also expect some correction to fill the gap level which was left near 9,225 levels. It could head for large correction if 9,000 gets broken on the downside as it is a very important level placed since the start of the up move from January 2017. The option data also continues to suggest a strong support at 9000 with an OI of 50 lakhs shares in put options. On the upside 9400 has the highest OI of 55 lakhs shares in call options.

US stocks recover intraday losses as Oil hits 6 month lows, undertone remains cautious as all eyes on jobs data due today with yields rising despite weakness in commodities.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened flat as most markets recovered intraday losses yesterday and will trade with caution ahead of the jobs data from the US and weakness in energy stocks. With the Japanese 'Nikkiei' closed for holidays the other markets are seeing huge divergences with the Chinese index losing ground while South Korea and India hitting new highs daily.

Nifty saw a strong break above 9350 with PSU banks and large corporate lenders leading even while commodity stocks lead the decline. Foreign investors selling continues to be a dampener with now 'euphoric' local mutual funds buying sending mid and small cap stocks into extremely stretched valuation zones. For today, expect Nifty to settle around all time highs while mid-cap stocks to continue to outperform with financials being the clear outperformers.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29977.95, down by 148.26 points or 0.49% after trading in a range of 29972.13 and 30176.55. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index declined 0.23%, while Small cap index was down by 0.07%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9319.65, down by 40.25 points or 0.43% after trading in a range of 9317.05 and 9377.10. There were 17 stocks advancing against 34 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Federalbnk*	119.35	6.18
*Canbk*	409.35	5.22
*CentralBak*	115.60	5.14
*Finolexind*	577.00	4.30
*Group ATopLosers*
*HCC*	43.80	-5.71
*Tatacomm*	668.05	-5.20
*Vedl*	222.00	-4.50
*Hindalco*	185.70	-3.48

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*29940*	*30151*
*Nifty*	*9320*	*9365*

Technical view: Nifty now finds strong support around 9300 while 9400 will be the first resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty is in blue sky territory and can see 23000 where there will be resistance, while 22500 will act as strong support on the downside.

Pidilite Industries (BUY Above 740 for Target of 760, Stop Loss at 725): The stock has broken out from a consolidation phase on the daily chart. The breakout has been accompanied with smart increase in volumes. Other oscillators are indicating that the current momentum is likely to prolong. We advise to Buy Pidilite for Target of Rs 760. Keep strict Stop Loss at Rs 725.

Derivative Snippets

Baba Ramdev-led Patanjali clocked a turnover of Rs 10,561 crore in 2016-17 and intends to become the largest Swadeshi company in the next 1-2 years. It aims to double its turnover and will invest about Rs 5,000 crore in setting up five new plants.

In the last trading session, markets continued to surge higher as ICICI Bank shimmered. Nifty Bank Future continued to form long positions as the open interest surged higher along with rising cost of carry. Huge short selling was witnessed in Nifty Bank 22500 monthly expiry put option strike along with long formation in 23000 call option strike, indicating of a continuation of this up trend.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 601 Cr.FII’s index future long/short ratio at 4.3x vs 5x.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Asian Paints up by 1.62%, Eicher Motors up by 1.27%, Indiabulls Housing up by 1.11%, Adani Ports up by 1.09% and Coal India up by 1.09%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 4.13%, GAIL India down by 2.12%, ONGC down by 2.01%, Infosys down by 1.29% and Larsen & Toubro down by 1.27% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The few gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Consumer Durables up by 1.14%, Consumer Disc up by 0.17%, Bankex up by 0.05% and Energy up by 0.04%, while Metal down by 1.75%, Basic Materials down by 1.03%, FMCG down by 0.91%, Capital Goods down by 0.88% and Utilities was down by 0.74% were the top losing indices on BSE.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were exhibiting mixed trend, with the Chinese market sliding for the fourth consecutive day, approaching near a level that would wipe out all of this year’s gains. The US markets remained in consolidation mood and made another flat closing in the last session.

Global Signals: Asian markets were trading mixed; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI rose 3.2 points or 0.18% to 1,761.87, Jakarta Composite increased 8.73 points or 0.15% to 5,678.17 and KOSPI Index was up by 21.57 points or 0.97% to 2,241.24.

On the flip side, Hang Seng declined 287.03 points or 1.16% to 24,396.85, Taiwan Weighted decreased 47.02 points or 0.47% to 9,920.62 and Shanghai Composite was down by 21.27 points or 0.68% to 3,106.10.

US indices close flat as Fed leaves rates unchanged, commodities fall sharply as US Dollar gains ground with bond yields trading below 2.3%

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened flat to mildly negative as US stocks closed almost unchanged after the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged. Commodities had their biggest fall in recent times with the LME hitting fresh 3 month lows as copper prices plunged to 6 month lows. US Dollar saw return of strength as bond yields fell while oil prices also fell from intraday highs to close flat.

Nifty saw very narrow movements on Wednesday as markets lacked direction with 9350 being the proverbial turning point. Foreign investors booked profit while local mutual funds continued to buy with conviction. For today expect range bound trade with stock/sector movements being the order of the day as mid-cap profit booking seems to be on the cards.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 30085.00, up by 190.20 points or 0.64% after trading in a range of 30027.41 and 30098.82. There were 22 stocks advancing against 8 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices too were going neck-in-neck to the benchmarks; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.53%, while Small cap index gained 0.57%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9350.55, up by 38.60 points or 0.43% after trading in a range of 9341.25 and 9361.40. There were 26 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*IOB*	31.60	8.78
*ICICIBanK*	295.90	8.49
*CentralBak*	109.90	5.32
*Amtekauto*	39.85	3.91
*Group ATopLosers*
*Intellect*	132.20	-4.93
*Hathway*	42.40	-3.42
*Vedl*	232.35	-3.23
*DLF*	184.85	-2.94

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*29940*	*30151*
*Nifty*	*9320*	*9365*

Technical view: Nifty found strong support around 9270 while 9350 acts as resistance, any break either side will see the Nifty move higher or lower. Bank Nifty made lower lows and hit 22240 which should be the support while 22450 will act as minor resistance on the upside.

VIP Industries (BUY Above 210 for Target of 221, Stop Loss at 204.5): After consolidating for over four weeks, the stock has finally broken out from a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern on the daily chart. The price outburst has been accompanied with smart uptick in traded volumes. Even the RSI has reversed from the 60 mark indicating strength in the current price up move. We recommend to buy VIP Industries for target of Rs 221.

Derivative Snippets

Godrej Properties, has sold over 1,000 apartments across three new project launches - Godrej Origins at The Trees in Mumbai, The Suites at Godrej Golf Links in Greater Noida, and Godrej 24 at Hinjawadi, Pune - since March 2017.

In the last trading session, markets ended on a lacklustre note. PSU Banks took center stage as the Government gave positive signals on creation of Bad Bank to deal with NPA issues.Muted action was seen in Nifty option strikes as markets remained flat. Weekly Nifty Bank OTM option strikes remained under selling pressure, indicating of a range bound activity in today’s expiry day trading session.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 518 Cr.FII’s index future long/short ratio at 5x vs 5.2x.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were ICICI Bank up by 8.71%, Bank Of Baroda up by 1.90%, Indiabulls Housing up by 1.90%, SBI up by 1.74% and AurobindoPharma up by 1.71%. On the flip side, Hindalco down by 2.49%, Kotak Mahindra Bank down by 1.39%, BPCL down by 1.29%, Tata Motors down by 1.25% and Indian Oil Corp. down by 1.03% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Bankex up by 1.63%, Consumer Durables up by 1.19%, Capital Goods up by 0.74%, Healthcare up by 0.48%, PSU up by 0.47%, while Metal down by 0.93%, Realty down by 0.30%, Oil & Gas down by 0.22%, Auto down by 0.22%, IT down by 0.13% were the losing indices on BSE.

On the global front:The rupee though has made a marginally weak start against the US dollar after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and also signaled a further rate hike. The domestic steel stocks too are showing signs of strength despite the global metal stocks remaining under pressure amid inventory concerns in industrial metals. The government has approved a new policy that envisages Rs 10 lakh croreinvestment to create more capacity in the steel sector.

Global Signals:Most of the Asian markets were in red, Hang Seng decreased 101.43 points or 0.41% to 24,594.70, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined by 14.58 points or 0.82% to 1,757.93, Shanghai Composite was lower by 1.6 points or 0.05% to 3,133.75 and Taiwan Weighted was down by 1.48 points or 0.01% to 9,953.85.On the other hand, KOSPI Index was up by 16.1 points or 0.73% to 2,235.77 and Jakarta Composite gained 16.59 points or 0.29% to 5,663.95.

SENSEX, NIFTY VOLATILE; IT, PSU BANKS STOCKS RALLY; FED MEET EYED

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Indian Indices: Mirroring weak European and Asian markets, Indian equity benchmarks continued their lackluster trade in late afternoon session on the back of selling pressure in Healthcare, Oil & Gas and Metal stocks. Besides, investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of the two-day US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet, due later in the evening.

The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates, but may offer hints on the possibility of a rate hike in June. Back on domestic turf, sentiments remained downbeat with the UN report projecting that India’s growth to remain stable at 7.1% in 2017 before edging up to 7.5% in 2018. It further stated that if the US policies take a very severe protectionist turn and the trend spreads, the India’s growth could be affected by as much as 1.2 per cent in the coming years.

However, down side remained capped with the report that Prime Minister NarendraModi is reviewing the progress of the government’s agenda to curb black-money and tax evasion as well as the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 29894.80, down by 26.38 points or 0.09% after trading in a range of 29867.14 and 30020.59. There were 14 stocks advancing against 15 stocks declining on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged.The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.39%, while Small cap index was down by 0.02%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut down at 9311.95, down by -1.85 points or 0.02% after trading in a range of 9298.40 and 9346.30. There were 26 stocks advancing against 25 stocks declining on the index.

*MARKET INDICATORS*			·
*Top Movers (Group A)*
*Company*	Cmp	% chg
*Gainers*
*SREInfra*	103.80	10.37
*Intellect*	137.50	9.61
*Raymond*	788.75	8.78
*Godrejprop*	541.80	7.27
*Losers*
*Biocon*	1035.50	-4.75
*SunTV*	883.20	-4.36
*Ipcalab*	563.00	-4.25
*Amtekauto*	38.40	-4.24

INDEX PERFORANCE
*Index*	*Close*	*% Chg*
*Sensex*	*29,894.80*	*-0.09*
*Nifty*	*9,311.95*	*-0.02*

Crporate Front: The government is expected to come out with regulations for fintech (financial technology) space as the industry is likely to witness increased payments and lending activities, a study said. With payments and lending remaining priority areas, fintech interest grew in India during January-March quarter of 2017, global consulting firm KPMG said in its report.

Macroeconomic front: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved a loan of $160 million to finance a power project in India, the bank said on Wednesday. The project, co-financed with the World Bank, is part of the government's "24x7 Power for All programme" and will strengthen the power transmission and distribution system in Andhra Pradesh, Xinhua news agency reported.

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in red as investors digested the latest in Brexit negotiations and corporate earnings. Asian markets were also trading in red. Back home, in scrip specific development, Thomas Cook India traded higher after the company’s wholly owned subsidiary- Travel Corporation (India) entered into Joint Venture (JV) Agreement with DER Touristik Group to form a Joint Venture Company ‘TCI Go Vacation India’ to be operational from Delhi NCR.

Commodity Updates:

*Commodity Prices (MCX):*
*Commodity*	Rs	*% Chang*
*Gold*	*28547.00*	*-0.12*
*Silver*	*38673.00*	*-0.04*
*Crude oil*	*3092.00*	*0.16*
*Natural Gas*	*204.90*	*0.15*
*Alluminium*	*123.40*	*-0.28*
*Copper*	*367.85*	*-2.19*

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were IT up by 1.19%, Realty up by 1.02%, TECK up by 0.80%, Telecom up by 0.26% and Basic Materials up by 0.20%, while Healthcare down by 0.89%, Oil & Gas down by 0.83%, Metal down by 0.77%, Energy down by 0.51% and Bankex down by 0.45% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were BhartiInfratel up by 2.63%, Power Grid Corporation up by 2.31%, Ultratech Cement up by 2.12%, TCS up by 2.04% and Infosys up by 1.06%. On the flip side, Lupin down by 2.78%, AurobindoPharma down by 2.06%, Tata Power down by 1.73%, Zee Entertainment down by 1.67% and Hindalco down by 1.50% were the top losers.

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Jakarta Composite decreased 22.85 points or 0.4% to 5,652.96, Shanghai Composite decreased 8.37 points or 0.27% to 3,135.35 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 6.33 points or 0.36% to 1,772.14. On the flip side, Taiwan Weighted increased 14.06 points or 0.14% to 9,955.33 and KOSPI Index increased 14.23 points or 0.65% to 2,219.67.

All the European markets were trading in red; Germany’s DAX decreased 28.52 points or 0.23% to 12,479.38, UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 23.68 points or 0.33% to 7,226.37 and France’s CAC decreased 15.83 points or 0.3% to 5,288.32.

SENSEX INDICES RANGEBOUND WITH POSITIVE BIAS; NLS, SUN TV TOP MIDCAP GAINERS.

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Indian Indices: Indian equity benchmarks continued to trade in positive territory with small gains in late afternoon session amid lack of clear direction from global markets. Investors remained optimistic with the private report that a normal monsoon this year should continue to revive rural demand and allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates by 0.25 percent in August.

Some support also came with the report that investments in domestic capital markets via participatory notes (P-notes) have surprisingly surged to 4-month high of Rs 1.78 lakh crore at the end of March despite stringent norms put in place by Sebi to curb inflow of illicit funds. Besides, select public sector banking stocks were trading higher with the ICRA’s report that the RBI’s recent revision in the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework is positive for banking sector, given the operating and financial profile of some of the banks.

However, some caution prevailed over the ongoing fourth quarter results season, coupled with weak rupee against dollar. The rupee was trading at 64.62, 6 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.58 on Wednesday.

The BSE Sensex is currently closed at 29422.39, up by 85.82 points or 0.29% after trading in a range of 29341.68 and 29453.06. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.51%, while Small cap index was up by 0.97%.

The CNX Nifty is currently shut up at 9136.40, up by 32.90 points or 0.36% after trading in a range of 9102.65 and 9143.90. There were 31 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

*MARKET INDICATORS*			·
*Top Movers (Group A)*
*Company*	Cmp	% chg
*Gainers*
*Adanitrans*	81.35	7.04
*Concor*	1120.15	6.50
*ABB*	1380.55	6.14
*Edelweiss*	181.55	5.98
*Losers*
*JPassociat*	12.93	-7.58
*Unitech*	5.68	-5.96
*Religare*	218.35	-5.17
*Cox & King*	212.0	-4.13

INDEX PERFORANCE
*Index*	*Close*	*% Chg*
*Sensex*	*29,422.39*	*0.29*
*Nifty*	*9,136.40*	*0.36*

Crporate Front:

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), a leading rating agency, has estimates that Rs 560 billion out of total debt of Rs 1,730 billion could be refinanced at a lower borrowing cost across various infrastructure sub-sectors in its portfolio till FY19. Also, there could be a shift in the type of instruments issued for the purpose of raising capital in the sector largely to the capital market instruments, namely bonds, from the conventional term loans, said the rating agency.

Macroeconomic front:The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday fixed the reference rate of the rupee at 64.6364 against the US dollar and 69.3355 for the euro. The corresponding rates were 64.5443 and 69.1915 on Wednesday. According to an RBI statement, the exchange rates for the pound and the yen against the rupee were 82.8057 and 59.35 per 100 yens, respectively, based on reference rates for the dollar and cross-currency quotes at noon.

On the global front:

On the global front, European markets were trading in green as investors continued to weigh current political uncertainties and digested fresh corporate earnings. Asian markets were trading mixed. Back home, in scrip specific development, Network18 Media & Investments was trading higher after the company received an in-principle approval to sell/ transfer/ otherwise dispose off or transfer BURRP to any other entity including a related party/ getting a strategic investor.

Commodity Updates:

*Commodity Prices (MCX):*
*Commodity*	Rs	*% Chang*
*Gold*	*29225.00*	*-0.27*
*Silver*	*41862.00*	*-0.09*
*Crude oil*	*3322.00*	*-0.48*
*Natural Gas*	*206.40*	*-0.53*
*Alluminium*	*124.45*	*1.02*
*Copper*	*363.95*	*0.75*

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening:The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.87%, Consumer Durables up by 1.19%, Basic Materials up by 1.12%, Consumer Disc up by 0.75% and Industrials up by 0.68%, while Bankex down by 0.47%, Energy down by 0.42%, Telecom down by 0.37%, Oil & Gas down by 0.32% and Healthcare down by 0.20% were the top losing indices on BSE.

Top Nifty Movers:The top gainers on Nifty were Grasim Industries up by 4.73%, Bank of Baroda up by 2.32%, Indiabulls Housing Finance up by 2.15%, GAIL India up by 2.01% and HDFC up by 2.00%. On the flip side, Yes Bank down by 3.98%, ICICI Bank down by 2.16%, Indian Oil Corporation down by 1.99%, Tata Power down by 1.93% and Axis Bank down by 1.76% were the top losers.

Global Signals:

Asian markets were trading mixed; Shanghai Composite increased 1.41 points or 0.04% to 3,172.10, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 3.62 points or 0.21% to 1,742.57, KOSPI Index increased 10.75 points or 0.5% to 2,149.15 and Hang Seng increased 231.1 points or 0.97% to 24,056.98. On the flip side, Jakarta Composite decreased 11.43 points or 0.2% to 5,595.09, Taiwan Weighted decreased 7.25 points or 0.08% to 9,632.69 and Nikkei 225 decreased 1.71 points or 0.01% to 18,430.49.

All European markets were trading in green; UK’s FTSE 100 increased 1.64 points or 0.02% to 7,116.00, Germany’s DAX increased 2.54 points or 0.02% to 12,018.99 and France’s CAC increased 30.92 points or 0.62% to 5,034.65.

US stocks fell to 2 month lows as bond yields slumped while Gold continues to see safe haven buying.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened on a mixed note with Australia and Japan opening in the green after seeing losses for the last 3 days. The other markets continued to see weakness as US indices closed in the red after triple digit losses on the Dow Jones. Oil prices fell along with US bond yields while Gold continued to witness protection buying.

Nifty closed flat after seeing narrow movements through the session with 9100 being the key. Bank Nifty drifted lower as PSU banks saw selling accentuate after seeing a big rally last week. For today expect OMC and Energy stocks to see buying while Banks and Financials may continue to see profit booking.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29425.80, up by 89.23 points or 0.30% after trading in a range of 29341.68 and 29442.24. There were 16 stocks advancing against 14 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.67%, while Small cap index was up by 0.91%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9133.50, up by 30.00 points or 0.33% after trading in a range of 9102.65 and 9135.95. There were 33 stocks advancing against 18 stocks declining on the index

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Indiacem*	191.95	10.00
*Sobha*	391.00	6.93
*NLCINDIA*	107.15	5.20
*Oberoirlty*	403.00	5.53
*Group ATopLosers*
*Yesbank*	1552.00	-3.33
*Hathway*	43.50	-3.12
*IRB*	248.60	-1.78
*Powergrid*	207.05	-1.94

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*29170*	*29850*
*Nifty*	*9060*	*9260*

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 9075 which was the low for yesterday while 9150 will act as resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also sees support @ 21470 while 21700 will act as resistance on the upside. Any breach and close below 9075 and 21470 will accentuate the fall on both indices.

JISLJALEQS (Buy Above 108 for Target of 116, Stop Loss at 104.5):Jain Irrigation has broken out from an inverse head and shoulder pattern on the daily charts. The stock has convincingly sustained above the 50-DMA. Other momentum oscillators indicate strength in the current up move. The breakout was also accompanied with highest ever daily volumes witnessed in the stock over the past few years. We advise to Buy JISJALEQS above Rs 108, Stop Loss at Rs 104.5 and Target of Rs 116.

Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, Nifty ended on a lacklustre note. Bank Nifty 20APR2017 expiry ATM/OTM call and put option strikes were under selling pressure, indicating of a range bound close to the weekly expiry contracts..

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 673 Cr. FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.4x v/s 2.7x. Long positions to the tune of ~33k contracts were created in index put options.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were GAIL India up by 4.37%, Grasim Industries up by 3.51%, HDFC up by 2.52%, Bank of Baroda up by 2.29% and ONGC up by 1.53%.

On the flip side, Yes Bank down by 3.72%, ICICI Bank down by 1.80%, Axis Bank down by 1.59%, Tata Power down by 0.76% and NTPC down by 0.64% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Realty up by 1.49%, Consumer Durables up by 1.17%, Basic Materials up by 1.04%, PSU up by 0.76% and Oil & Gas up by 0.63%, while Bankex down by 0.34% was the sole loser on BSE.The top gainers on the Sensex were GAIL India up by 4.12%, HDFC up by 2.54%, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone up by 1.50%, ONGC up by 1.45% and HDFC Bank up by 1.03%.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian shares were trading mostly in green, as signs of resilience emerged in some markets, while steadying commodity prices - especially for oil - prompted some bargain hunting among investors. Japan reported that March exports rose 12% on year, against a 6% increase projected by analysts for the fourth consecutive month of gains, while imports rose 15.8%, well above the 10.4% increase seen. The trade surplus came in at 615 billion yen, wider than the 576 billion yen increase seen.

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in green; FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI increased 2.34 points or 0.13% to 1,741.29, KOSPI Index increased 9.87 points or 0.46% to 2,148.27, Nikkei 225 increased 64.01 points or 0.35% to 18,496.21 and Hang Seng increased 101.26 points or 0.43% to 23,927.14.On the other hand, Taiwan Weighted decreased 6.43 points or 0.07% to 9,633.51, Jakarta Composite decreased 5.68 points or 0.1% to 5,600.83 and Shanghai Composite decreased 1.49 points or 0.05% to 3,169.20.

US indices fall in tandem with global weakness as UK elections, metals selloff gathers momentum. Gold, Yen see defensive buying as investors turn cautious.

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Indian Indices: Asian indices opened weak in tandem with the European selloff, which saw the Dow Jones also close lower by over 120 points. LME weakness in UK followed by the snap decision of elections saw the British Pound rally smartly, which hurt equities with metals leading on the way down. For today expect caution to be the buzzword as currencies, bond yields and equities chart out the course for the remainder of April with 'risk off' trade gathering momentum.

Nifty saw a very sharp intraday reversal and closed in the red after being up over 70 points during the morning session. The selloff was led by foreign investors as global cues turned weak and Nifty failed to sustain even the previous day's low. Mid-caps led the fall with further correction on the cards today also.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 29351.15, up by 32.05 points or 0.11% after trading in a range of 29241.48 and 29373.55. There were 18 stocks advancing against 12 stocks declining on the index.

The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.48%, while Small cap index was up by 0.48%.

The CNX Nifty is currently trading at 9113.55, up by 8.40 points or 0.09% after trading in a range of 9079.50 and 9120.50. There were 31 stocks advancing against 20 stocks declining on the index.

MARKET INDICATORS			·
*Group ATopGainers*
*Company*	Price (Rs)	% chg
*Cesc*	907.85	5.67
*MRPL*	121.65	5.55
*Hathway*	39.30	4.94
*RTNPower*	9.02	4.52
*Group ATopLosers*
*Nationlum*	68.65	-6.54
*Jindalstel*	114.00	-4.00
*Polaris*	218.00	-3.11
*NLCIndia*	102.00	-2.67

INDEX PERFORMANCE
*Indices*	*Support*	*Resistanes*
*Sensex*	*29170*	*29850*
*Nifty*	*9060*	*9260*

Technical view: Nifty finds strong support @ 9050 with 9150 now acting as strong resistance on the upside. Bank Nifty also finds 21750 as the hurdle on the upside while 21500 will act as support.

BPCL (Sell April Future Below 725, for Target of 703 and Stop Loss at 736): The stock has formed a Doji as well as a shooting star kind of a candle stick pattern indicating uncertainty in the current trend. If BPCL slips below previous day’s low we expect a fresh bout of downside pressure on the stock. Momentum indicators also suggest exhaustion at current juncture, which further accentuates our bearish stance on the stock for short term.

Derivative Snippets

In the last trading session, Nifty ended on a negative note as the closing hour selling pressure weigh in. Nifty OTM call option strikes witnessed continued short selling, while short covering was seen in ATM/OTM put option strikes, indicating of a further correction up to the support zone of 9050 levels.

FIIs were net sellers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs 931 Cr.

FII’s index future long/short ratio at 2.7x. Long positions to the tune of ~18k contracts were created in index put options.

Nifty Movers: The top gainers on Nifty were Tata Power up by 3.53%, Power Grid up by 2.87%, BhartiInfratel up by 2.51%, NTPC up by 2.01% and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone up by 1.91%. On the flip side, Indiabulls Housing down by 1.58%, Axis Bank down by 1.34%, TCS down by 0.75%, Bosch down by 0.68% and Infosys down by 0.56% were the top losers.

Top Sectoral& Stock Screening: The gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Utilities up by 1.79%, Power up by 1.76%, Basic Materials up by 0.55%, Metal up by 0.52% and Industrials up by 0.43%, while IT down by 0.35%, Bankex down by 0.26%, TECK down by 0.16% and Oil & Gas down by 0.02% were the losing indices on BSE.

On the global front: On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly higher on Tuesday as tensions over the situation on the Korean Peninsula softened somewhat following U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's departure from South Korea for Japan. While weak commodity prices weighed on resources stocks, strong post-Easter finish on Wall Street provided upward momentum. In overnight trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index advanced 0.9%, while S&P500 index rose 0.86% and Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.89%.

Global Signals:The Asian markets were trading mostly in red; Hang Seng decreased 140.73 points or 0.59% to 23,783.81, Taiwan Weighted decreased 114.11 points or 1.17% to 9,632.45, Shanghai Composite decreased 35.92 points or 1.12% to 3,160.79, KOSPI Index decreased 7.61 points or 0.35% to 2,140.85 and FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI decreased 1.54 points or 0.09% to 1,739.06.On the other hand, Nikkei 225 increased 7.05 points or 0.04% to 18,425.64 and Jakarta Composite increased 29.03 points or 0.52% to 5,606.52.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 16, 2017–April 23, 2017

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Events to watch this week

Trump may nominate Yellen to second term
Geopolitical tensions rise
Four candidates in French presidential mix
Fed chair: Economy healthy now
Canadian central bank head warns on house prices

The Week ahead:

China reports GDP, retail sales and industrial production on Monday, 17 April
The United States releases industrial production data on Tuesday, 18 April
The eurozone releases its consumer price index on Wednesday, 19 April
The Fed’s Beige Book is published on Wednesday, 19 April
The United Kingdom reports retail sales data on Friday, 21 April
US existing home sales data are released on Friday, 21 April

For the week,Global equities dipped this week with the intensification of geopolitical jitters over rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and the possibility of a stronger US commitment to oust Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad. A safe-haven bid pushed the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note down to its lowest point of the year at 2.25%. Oil prices continued their rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $53.25 from $52 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, jumped to 16 from 12.8 last week.

NIFTY- 9,150.80
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,423 barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,418 gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.41

MARKET ROUND UP
Indian equity markets registered modest losses in the week ended Thursday, 13 April 2017, weighed by weak global cues. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex lost 245.16 points or 0.82% to settle at 29,461.45. The Nifty 50 index fell 47.50 points or 0.51% to settle at 9,150.80.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.82%. The BSE Small-Cap index advanced 1.36%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
Domestic bourses remain shut on Friday, 14 April 2017, on account of Dr. Baba SahebAmbedkarJayanti and Good Friday.
Sentiment in global markets remained subdued during the week as investors were cautious amid geopolitical tensions in Syria and North Korea. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the civil war in Syria and nuclear capabilities of North Korea. In recent days, the trading mood has been dented by heightened geopolitical tensions.

Key benchmark indices suffered modest losses on Wednesday, 12 April 2017, amid volatile session of trade ahead of the release of key domestic economic data later in the day. The Sensex fell 144.87 points or 0.49% to settle at 29,643.48, its lowest closing level since 10 April 2017.

Key benchmark indices wrapped the trading week with moderate losses on Thursday, 13 April 2017, as sentiment was subdued after domestic data showed that industrial production contracted in February and consumer price inflation edged up in March. The Sensex declined 182.03 points or 0.61% to settle at 29,461.45, its lowest closing level since 28 March 2017.

Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,industrial production declined 1.2% in February 2017 over February 2016, snapping 3.3% growth recorded in January 2017. The manufacturing sector's production dipped 2% in February 2017, mainly contributing to the dip in industrial production.

The inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.81% in March 2017 (new base 2012=100), compared with 3.65% in February 2017. The CPI and IIP data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
BhartiAirtel was down 1.15%. The company said its DTH arm Airtel Digital TV launched Internet TV India's first hybrid STB, powered by Android TV, which brings the best of online content to the TV screen along with a bouquet of over 500 plus satellite TV channels. The announcement was made during market hours on Wednesday, 12 April 2017.

Tata Motors declined 3.22%. The company said group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover rose 9% at 1.29 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 6% at 42,596 units in March 2017 over March 2016.

Maruti Suzuki India lost 2.79%. The company said its total production rose 10.29% to 1.53 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017.

L&T fell 0.5%. The company said the power transmission and distribution business of L&T Construction has won its single largest order in the Middle East from their esteemed customer Kahramaa' - Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation - for its ongoing Qatar Electricity Transmission Network Expansion Plan-Phase XIII.

NTPC declined 1.85%. The company said that Bangladesh India Friendship Power Company (BIFPCL), a 50:50 joint venture company between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) has achieved financial closure on 10 April 2017 to set up 1320 megawatts (MW) (2 x 660 MW) coal based Maitree Super Thermal Power Project at Rampal in Bagerhat District of Khulna division, Bangladesh. The announcement was made during market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Infosys slumped 5.08%. The company said that consolidated net profit as per International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) fell 2.8% to Rs 3603 crore on 0.9% decline in revenue to Rs 17120 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q3 December 2016. The result was announced before market hours on Thursday, 13 April 2017.

Wipro lost 3.27%. The company said it has completed the acquisition of Brazilian IT service provider InfoSERVER. The impact of the buyout will reflect in the financials of the company from the Q1 June 2017, it added. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.93%. RIL's subsidiary, Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) announced that the Jio Summer Surprise has been fully withdrawn, following the advice of Telecom Regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 11 April 2017.

Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,China's consumer inflation rebounded slightly in March after slipping to a more than two-year low in the previous month, official data showed. China's consumer price index increased 0.9% in March from a year earlier, compared with a 0.8% gain in February, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Japan's current account surplus stood at 2.81 trillion yen ($25.26 billion) in February, finance ministry data showed, the biggest surplus since March 2016. The result is the 32nd straight month of current account surpluses. This February's current account surplus was the largest on record for February.

Meanwhile, industrial production in the eurozone dropped unexpectedly in February from the month before, led by falling energy output, the European Union's statistics agency said. Output of the eurozone's factory, mines and utilities decreased by 0.3% from the month before, but rose by 1.2% from February last year, Eurostat said.

Global Economic News:

Trump shifts tone
US president Donald Trump sounded decidedly more moderate than he did during last fall’s campaign in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday. The president reversed course on multiple fronts. First, Trump said he may nominate US Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen to a second term after saying last fall that she was "toast" and he would replace her at the end of her term. He also reversed his opposition to the US Export-Import Bank, which finances US exports. Critics cite the bank as an example of “corporate welfare.” Additionally, the president shifted gears on NATO, saying the alliance is no longer obsolete because it has begun to fight terrorism. Finally, Trump said the United States will not label China a currency manipulator, thus breaking another campaign vow. The reversal may represent an attempt to entice China to increase pressure on North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

North Korea, Syria in spotlight
Tensions continued to mount on the Korean peninsula as the North Korean regime threatened a nuclear strike in response to any US aggression. North Korea is believed to be trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US mainland. This week, the US navy dispatched a carrier task force to the western Pacific in a show of force, while Chinese president Xi Jinping said that China is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. President Trump called on China to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor, saying if China won’t help, the US could act alone. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 nations continue to pressure Russia to abandon its support of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in the wake of last week’s chemical weapons attack on Syrian rebels which led to a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airbase by US forces.

Poloz: House prices can go down as well as up
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned of the growing role of speculation in the recent acceleration in Toronto-area house prices. The central banker said that prices had accelerated from percentages in the high teens to the 30% zone, adding there is no fundamental story that can explain the rise. “I think it is timely to remind folks that prices of houses can go down as well as up,” he said. Poloz also said that further rate cuts in Canada are no longer on the table.

EM debt issuance boomed in Q1
Borrowers in emerging markets raised a record $181 billion during the first quarter of the year. Corporates raised $119.1 billion, beating the Q1 2013 record, while sovereigns raised $61.5 billion, topping the year-ago quarter by over $16 billion, according to data from J.P. Morgan. Total emerging market debt rose to $55 trillion in 2016, equal to 215% of the collective GDP of emerging nations.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Four contenders vie for two spots in French runoff
For months, there have been three candidates in contention for the two spots in the second round of the French presidential election. Marine Le Pen, the populist firebrand, has consistently led recent polls, trailed closely by centrist Emmanuel Macron. François Fillon, hampered by an ethics scandal, has held the third position most of the time. Now a fourth candidate, leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has entered the fray and is in a virtual tie for third place with Fillon. The conventional wisdom is that Le Pen will be beaten handily in the second round by either Macron or Fillon, who are more centrist. But the emergence of Mélenchon could put an unexpected wrinkle into the process. First-round voting takes place on 23 April.

Yellen: Fed allowing economy to coast
Speaking at the University of Michigan, Fed chair Yellen said that the US economy is healthy and that the Fed is now shifting its focus, taking its foot off the accelerator and allowing the economy to “coast” for a while, saying a gradual path of interest rate increases can get us where we need to go. Yellen also opined on several bills that are working their way through Congress, expressing concern that the Fed could become subject to political pressure if the bills are signed into law.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ABB	1467.65
ATUL	2532.00
BAJAJFINSV	4634.85

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

NOT YET IN (A) CAT

-------

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

INDIABULLS REAL	19.13
PIRAMAL ENT.	16.68
RURAL ELECTRIFIC	12.57

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

ADANI POWER	-24.66
SOBHA	-9.71
VEDANTA	-9.16

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (17 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions
Tuesday (18 Mar)
Housing Market Index
Wednesday (19 Mar)
Housing Starts
Thursday (20 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Friday (21 Mar)
Jobless Claims

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd For Target Rs.2950.00 -

Derivative Ideas
The stock is consolidating after forming a bottom at 2755 levels with positive price action in the past few days confirming an uptrend. The key technical indicators has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock has closed above its short term averages
* The stock has strong support on its weekly charts holding the short and medium term averages and the positive divergence in the last few weeks candle confirms the up move.
*Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs. 2810 for target of Rs 2950 with a stop loss of Rs 2740.

Indian Market Outlook:
The Nifty opened on a flat note today and traded with a downward bias. It has reached near the lower end of the 9180-9150 support range. On the hourly chart, the fall is appearing as a corrective one. In terms of price pattern, the Nifty seems to have formed a wedge on the hourly chart, whose implications are likely to be bullish. Thus, the next leg up could be around the corner. We are maintaining our positive view on the Nifty with a cautious approach. On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the previous rise, ie 9120 will be the subsequent support, with 9000-8980 being a major support area. On the way up, 9340 and 9500 are the short-term and medium-term targets, respectively.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3	S2	S1	NIFTY	R1	R2	R3
9,000	9,060	9,110	9,150.80	9,180	9,250	9,310

Nifty, after trading range bound for most part of the week, ended lower and lost nearly half a percent and finally settled at 9150.80.
* Existence of major hurdle around 9300 mark combined with weak global cues and anxiety ahead of earnings season capped upside; however, buying interest was witnessed in select index major amid volatility.
* In the coming week, we expect volatility to remain high due to ongoing earnings season and lingering geo-political issue.
* Considering all, we suggest participants maintaining stock specific approach and keep a check on the leveraged positions.

Conclusion:

Bank Nifty made low of 21551 so bulls held on to 21500 in today’s correction so we can continue the upmove towards 21850/21990 as we have weekly closing tomorrow, Friday being an holiday. Bearish below 21500 for a move towards 21400/21350. Bank Nifty continue to hold on to its gann angle suggesting bulls are holding the grip. Holding the low of 21600 BUlls can continue to see upmove towards 21800/21920/22000. Bearish on close below 21520 for a move towards 21400/21350/21230. New time cycle is starting from coming week (More Details in Weekly Analysis) so we can see good trending move in next 1-2 days.

RBI SHIFTS POLICY STANCE FROM ACCOMMODATIVE TO NEUTRAL ON FEAR OF INFLATION-Research Report-ShareTipsInfo

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RBI shifts policy stance from accommodative to neutral on fear of inflation

The Monetary Policy Committee in its first Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy review, held on 6 th April 2017, kept the borrowing rates unchanged at 6.25 percent. The committee however hiked reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in a bid to drain excess liquidity from the system. Speaking about liquidity, there was approximately Rs. 7,956 billion of excess cash in the banking system in January’17 which now stands close to Rs. 4,806 billion (March’17). This decline was majorly due to RBI’s tooling i.e. Market Stabilization Scheme which helped the central bank to absorb excess cash of around Rs. 3,141 billion by the end of March’17.

According to the RBI staff projections, the inflation rate which currently is at 3.65 percent is projected to rise at 4.5 percent in the first half of 2017-18 and thereafter at 5 percent. Reason behind this upsurge in consumer prices could be attributed to the rising probability of an El Niño event which could boost food inflation. Implementation of 7 th Pay Commission and GST bill along with global developments are other factors for the inflation uptick.

With respect to economic growth, gross value added growth is projected to strengthen to 7.4 percent in 2017-18 from 6.7 percent in 2016-17 primarily due to - rebound in consumer spending, credit growth, recent proposals in the Union Budget which could stimulate capital expenditure, roll-out of GST bill and the upsurge in IPO’s which augurs well for investment and growth.

Inflationary pressure to re-emerge along with higher growth

MPC clearly spells out higher upside risks to inflation. Average CPI is projected to be higher at 4.5% in H1FY18, currently at 3.7% in Feb’17, to 5.0% in H2FY18. Currently, demonetization spillovers has suppressed the headline inflation numbers. Headline inflation is likely to edge higher as the temporary impact of demonetization on perishable food items fades out and core inflation (4.8% YoY in Feb’17) inches up along with cyclical upswing in demand. The factors that are expected to reinforce inflationary pressure include

a) deficient south west monsoon & higher MSPs reinforcing food inflation,

b) increase in HRA as recommended by 7th pay commission is likely to push baseline inflation trajectory by 100-150bps,

c) initial effect from implementation of GST,

d) farm loan waivers by state governments,

e) policy focus to revive demand particularly from increase in budget allocation towards rural & affordable housing,

f) narrowing of output gap as remonetisation progresses,

g) spillover of improving global prospects on commodity prices,

h) rising inflation in advance economies due to reflationary policies,

i) currency impact arising from normalization of monetary policy in advance economies, especially US Fed and

j) protectionism policies adopted across the world.

On growth front (real GVA), the outlook is seen favorable at 7.4% vs 6.7% on the back of

a) gainingremonetisation,

b) reflationary fiscal policies, specially targeted towards rural demand and

c) cyclical upturn in global growth.

On global markets

According to the RBI governor, global trade volumes are finally improving which means that global demand is no more anaemic in nature. The world’s largest economy i.e. the United States of America is on growth path since all its important economic datasets on labour market, inflation and growth have come on a positive note. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the direction of US macro-economic policies with potential global spill over. The governor also feels that emerging markets are gradually improving on hardening commodity prices, easing recessionary pressures in Russia/Brazil and stabilized Chinese policy stimulus.

Overview of Indian economy

The demonetization effect on the economy is finally easing. This can be observed from the rebound seen in manufacturing and service PMI data since demonetization. Both the PMI data lingered close to 49.6 and 46.8 in December’16 and has finally increased to 52.5 and 51.5 respectively in March’17 due to pickup seen in demand for new orders and output. This has benefitted the Index of industrial production (IIP) data which surged to 2.7 percent in January’17 from previous months -0.1 percent. Overall business sentiment is expected to improve in Q1 of 2017-18 on the back of a sharp pick up in both domestic and external demand y | June 7, 2016 www.angelcommodities.com Page 2 RBI Monetary Policy Update 06 April 2017 About the inflation rate, since the last two months the consumer prices have been increasing, all thanks to increase in the prices of sugar, fruits, meat, fish, milk and processed foods. Kerosene prices have also been increasing on the back of reduction in subsidies. With respect to balance of trade, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $8.9 billion in Feb-17 from previous month’s deficit of $9.8 billion due to lower crude oil prices. The above strong macro-economic datasets along with the resounding win of BJP party in Uttar Pradesh elections along with the clearance of GST bill in the LokSabha has led to a sudden surge in inflows which has acted as a positive factor both for Indian markets and its currency. The annual growth rate which was at 7.4 percent in September’16 quarter expanded by mere 7 percent owing to the demonetization move. The Monetary Policy Committee expects economic activities to recover in the second half of 2017-18.

Summing up

The no-change-in-policy was mainly undertaken to guard the Indian economy against any potential flare-up in inflation. Post this event, the Indian Rupee spot has been continuously appreciating and is currently trading at 64.51 levels while writing. USDINR spot is likely to appreciate even more in the near term as uncertainty with respect to Trump’s fiscal policies will keep the American currency pressurized in turn favouring the Indian currency

Outlook:

Liquidity to normalize by Q2FY18 RBI’s has reinforced its earlier outlook of re-emergence of inflationary pressure with a mild hawkish overtone. Hence, even the marginal market expectation of rate easing and softening of Gsec yields has been ruled out. The pace of remonetisation will provide reinforcement to domestic demand and growth outlook. Our projections indicate that complete normalization of demonetization, including reprinting of notes and meeting normalized demand will be achieved by end of Q1FY18, i.e. eight months post demonetization announcement. Expected upside risk to inflation can enhance the hawkish tenor of the RBI’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, prospects of rising global rates led by the Fed’s normalization will condition RBI’s policy outlook, in our view.

Weekly Nifty Trading View for the Week April 10, 2017–April 16, 2017

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Events to watch this week

US March nonfarm payrolls rise 98,000
US launches missile attack against Syria
Trump, Xi hold summit
Fed to begin shrinking balance sheet
European manufacturing speeds up
South Africa suffers credit downgrade

The Week ahead:

Fed chair Janet Yellen participates in a discussion at the University of Michigan on Monday, 10 April
The UK consumer price index is released on Tuesday, 11 April
UK unemployment data are reported on Wednesday, 12 April
The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, 12 April
China reports its trade balance on Thursday, 13 April
The United States releases retail sales and consumer price data on Friday, April 14

For the week,Global equities were little changed this week despite an uptick in geopolitical jitters following the US missile strike on a Syrian airbase and a potential shift in tactics by the US Federal Reserve later this year. The lackluster employment report, coupled with the attack against Syria, helped push US 10-year Treasury notes to 2.28%, their lowest intraday yield of 2017, on Friday morning. Oil prices firmed after the attack, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $51.94, up from $50 a week ago. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), remained subdued, at 12.8 on Friday versus 12 a week ago.

NIFTY- 9,198.30
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,362barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,665 gram
Rs/$-Rs 68.08

MARKET ROUND UP
The market rose last week in line with overall positive sentiment in the market which has been riding on the passage of Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the strengthened position of government after the assembly elections. The improved macroeconomic numbers, such as sharp reduction in current account deficit, resulted in a lot of funds flowing into Indian equities - both from domestic and global institutions. The buying interest was not only in large-caps, but in mid and small-caps as well.
In the week ended Friday, 7 April 2017, the Sensex rose 86.11 points, or 0.29% to settle at 29,706.61. The Nifty 50 index rose 24.55 points, or 0.27% to settle at 9,198.30. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 136.51 points, or 0.97% to settle at 14,233.16. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 350.17 points, or 2.44% to settle at 14,681.42.

Trading for the week began on a positive note. Market registered modest gains in the first trading session of the week on Monday, 3 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 289.72 points or 0.98% to settle at 29,910.22. Domestic bourses were closed on Tuesday, 4 April 2017 on account of Ram Navami.

Market registered decent gains in a volatile trade on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The Sensex had risen 64.02 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,974.24, its record closing high.

Key benchmark indices registered small losses on weak global cues on Thursday, 6 April 2017. The Sensex fell 46.90 points or 0.16% to settle at 29,927.34, its lowest closing level since 3 April 2017.

Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday, 6 April 2017, kept the policy repo under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.25%. On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation at its meeting on Thursday, 6 April 2017, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy repo rate under the LAF unchanged at 6.25%.

Consequent upon the narrowing of the LAF corridor as elaborated in the accompanying Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies, the reverse repo rate under the LAF is at 6% per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.5%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of plus/minus 2%, while supporting growth, the RBI said.

Meanwhile, data released by Markit Economics during market hours on Thursday, 6 April 2017 showed that the Indian service sector moved further away from the demonetisation-related contractions seen towards the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India composite PMI output index increased to 52.3 in March, from 50.7 in February, signalling a quicker rise in private sector activity across the country.

Major Action &Announcement:
L&T said that the first 150 megawatts (MW) gas turbine for Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)'s 225 MW combined cycle (dual fuel) power plant at Sikalbaha in Chittagong district was synchronised with the national grid on 25 March 2017. The second 280 MW gas turbine for North West Power Generation Co (NWPGCL) combined cycle power plant of 360 MW capacity development project at Bheramara in Kushtia district was synchronised with the grid on 31 March 2017. Both these power plants are being executed by gas based power projects business unit of L&T Power based in Baroda, India. L&T Power is also executing an engineering, procurement and construction subcontract for another 400 MW gas based power plant at Bibiyana in Sylhet district, Bangladesh. It will be ready for commissioning in 2018-19.

Index pivotal Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 6.55% to Rs 1,405.55. RIL said that the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has advised its telecom unit Reliance JioInfocomm (Jio) to withdraw the 3 months complementary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise. Jio accepted this decision. It is in the process of fully complying with the regulator's advice, and will be withdrawing the 3 months complimentary benefits of Jio Summer Surprise as soon as operationally feasible, over the next few days.

Car major Maruti Suzuki India rose 3.98% to Rs 6,263.95 after the company announced 8.1% rise in total sales to 1.39 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Total domestic sales rose 7.7% to 1.27 lakh units in March 2017 over March 2016. Exports grew by 12.6% to 11,764 units in March 2017 over March 2016. The announcement was made on Saturday, 1 April 2017.

Sate-run NTPC rose 1.05% to Rs 167.70. The company announced that Unit#1 of 660 megawatts (MW) of Solapur Super Thermal Power Project has been commissioned. With this, the commissioned capacity of NTPC and NTPC Group has become 44,194 MW and 51,410 MW respectively. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 7 April 2017.

Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,Overseas, geopolitical tensions intensified after the US military struck a Syrian airfield near Homs. US President Donald Trump said he ordered the missile strikes following the deadly chemical attack that took place earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve policy minutes, which were released on Wednesday, 5 April 2017. The minutes had a slightly hawkish tone, as policymakers noted upside risk to the US economy. However, policymakers remain divided on whether inflation will rise to the Fed target of 2.0%. The minutes also stated FOMC members were in favor of taking steps to trim the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which has ballooned since the Fed implemented its aggressive quantitative easing program back in 2008.

Global Economic News:

US nonfarm payrolls up less than expected
US payrolls expanded by 98,000 in March, well below the 180,000 consensus forecast. In addition, both January and February payrolls were downwardly revised. However, the unemployment rate dipped 0.2% to 4.5%, the lowest level since May 2007, while average hourly earnings rose 2.7% versus a year ago, down from 2.8% in February.

US attacks Syrian airbase
In response to a chemical weapons attack in Syria by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the United States launched nearly five dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted at the airfield from which the attack is believed to have been launched. The missiles struck infrastructure at the airfield, according to the administration, but did not target chemical weapons storage facilities because of the potential for civilian casualties.

Trade, North Korea top Trump–Xi agenda
US president Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s president, held talks at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, late this week. The leaders discussed trade relations between the world’s two largest economies as well as security concerns, particularly over North Korea.

European manufacturing hits highest reading in nearly six years
Theeurozone purchasing managers’ index in March rose to its highest level in nearly six years, reaching 56.2 from 55.4. That’s the highest since April of 2011. European retail sales rose solidly for the second month in a row in February, rising 0.7%. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased to 57.2 in March from February’s 57.7.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Fed eyes balance sheet, stock valuations
The minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meetings rarely make much news, but the summary of the March meeting did so on several fronts. The committee discussed shrinking the Fed’s mammoth $4.5 trillion balance sheet beginning late this year by allowing some of the assets it acquired in the wake of the financial crisis to mature. However, the committee did not outline specifically how it will change its reinvestment policy. Those specifics are expected later in 2017. Also newsworthy was that members of the committee opined on asset valuations more directly than usual: “Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures. It was observed that prices of other risk assets, such as emerging market stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, and commercial real estate, had also risen significantly in recent months.”

South Africa’s rating cut after Gordhan ousted
Credit rating agencies Standard and Poor’s and Fitch each downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating one notch to BB+ in the wake of the sacking of former finance minister PravinGordhan. Weakening standards of governance and public finances were to blame.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

ADANIENT	119.35
ADANIPORTS	83.25
BAJAJFINSV	4288.00

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

NOT YET IN (A) CAT

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MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

ADANI TRANSMISSION	26.42
SOBHA	21.43
NAVKAR	19.27

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

CONTAINER	-11.87
GSFC	-8.41
COX & KINGS	-8.08

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (10 Mar)
Labor Market Conditions
Tuesday (11 Mar)
NFIB Small Business
Wednesday (12 Mar)
MBA Mortgage Applications
Thursday (13 Mar)
Consumer Sentiment &Natural Gas Report
Friday (14 Mar)
Consumer Price Index & Retail Sales

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Derivative Ambuja Cements Ltd For Target Rs.254.00

Derivative Ideas
AMBUJACEM added around 7.2% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. On charts, it has witness upside breakout from Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern on daily charts. We suggest buying AMBUJACEM as per levels given below.

Strategy:
BUY AMBUJACEM APR FUTS BETWEEN 240-242, SL 237, TARGET 254.

Indian Market Outlook:
Nifty inched marginally higher in the holiday shortened week and settled closer to 9200, tracking mixed cues from domestic and global front.

* The coming week is also a holiday shortened one and we expect some decisive moves in stocks ahead of Q4FY17 corporate earnings. Besides, recent geo-political issue between the US and Syria will also remain on participants’ radar.
* Technically, we expect Nifty to consolidate further but the overall bias would remain on positive side. We suggest traders to use further profit taking to add quality stocks while keeping the leveraged positions hedged.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

S3	S2	S1	NIFTY	R1	R2	R3
9,000	9,080	9,130	9,198.30	9,225	9,270	9,340

High made was 9268 again near the gann angles, and low made was 9218 so we made an INSIDE Bar candle today, Now plan remains the same buy above 9268 for a move towards 9312/9360/9410. Bearish below 9200 for a move towards 9130/9030. Nifty continue to trade below the gann angle as high made today was also 9250 so we are unable to close above the gann level of 9268, and we closed below 9200 so we are heading towards 9130/9070/9020 range. Bullish only on close above 9268.

Conclusion:

The Nifty witnessed a minor setback, closing the week on a flat note. Since the last couple of sessions, the Index was taking support near the previous swing high of 9218. However, today, it has broken below 9218 and has fallen back below 9200. Structurally, the fall seems to be a retracement of the previous rise and is unlikely to develop into a larger fall. 9180-9150 is a crucial support zone from where the Nifty can start the next leg up. The overall trend continues to be positive from a short-term as well as medium-term perspective. 9340 and 9500 are short-term and medium-term targets, respectively. On the flip side, 9000-8980 is the major support area.