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Global slowdown, monetary tightening to weigh on India's rapid recovery, economists say

2. August 2022 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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While the government has said that there is zero chance of a recession, the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening is expected to curb activities.

Although the recent spate of high-frequency data has raised hopes of a sustained economic recovery, experts see Asia’s third-largest economy facing headwinds from a slowing global growth and monetary tightening by its central bank.

India's manufacturing activity remains robust with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index hitting an eight-month high of 56.4 percent in July, indicating that price pressure has started to cool off.

This was supported by other fundamentals recorded in July. The month saw passenger car sales jumping 16 percent, while goods and services tax revenue spiked to its second highest level of Rs 1.49 lakh crore. Eight core industries continued to average 12.7 percent in June.

While the domestic demand recovery that will ensure that growth remains reasonably robust, there are several countervailing risks going ahead, economists pointed out.

Fears of a crisis worsened with the Indian currency being battered in recent weeks amid the global risk-off, slipping below the key psychological level of 80 to a dollar. Since India runs a perennial trade deficit, this also adds to the inflationary pressure in the economy.

While the Reserve Bank of India will strive to engineer a soft-landing for the economy, we think some growth sacrifice will be inevitable,” Rahul Bajoria, Barclays managing director and chief India economist, wrote in a note.

“A weakening global outlook, tightening domestic financial conditions and elevated energy costs could weigh on the recovery in the coming months. Spillovers from external weakness are visible in India’s new export orders, and this may dampen manufacturing sentiment in H2 2022,” he said.

The US Federal Reserve may continue to tighten the monetary policy despite conflicting economic signals and there is a renewed threat of a Chinese slowdown that may weigh on the overall growth. The International Monetary Fund last week cut its global growth forecast for 2022 by 40 basis points to 3.2 percent and by 70 basis points to 2.9 percent for 2023. The world could soon be on the brink of a recession, the agency warned.

While the Indian government has said that there is zero chance of a recession, the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening is expected to curb activities.

India’s central bank, which is meeting later this week, is widely expected to raise the key policy repo rate by at least 35 basis points as it seeks to curb inflation which has been hovering outside its tolerance ceiling for several months. Since early May, the central bank has increased the repo rate by 90 basis points to 4.9 percent.

The robust manufacturing PMI will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50 basis points this week, despite signs that price pressure in the manufacturing sector is past its peak, Adam Hoyes, Assistant Economist at Capital Economics, said.

Inflation is still running far above the RBI mandate at 7.01 percent in June and food prices should still drive the headline CPI inflation higher in July. "What’s more, there is a risk that output price rises do not cool off if firms decide to pass on more of their higher input costs. And output prices in the services sector were on the rise in June,” Hoyes said.

Taking out the base effects from the latest core industries data shows that India’s industrial sector is entering a weaker phase, Capital Economics said in a separate note.

Share Market Closing Note | Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 August, 2022:

1. August 2022 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Topic :- Share Market Closing Note

Nifty ends above 17,300, Sensex reclaims 58,000 led by auto, power, oil & gas. Stock Market Today, June 21, 2022: Share Market Updates, Share Market News Today, Sensex, Nifty, Share Prices Today

All the sectoral indices ended on positive note with Auto, Power, and Oil & Gas indices gained 2-3 percent.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot close above 17300 level will result in some further upmove in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement is likely to follow in the market. Avoid open short positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.10 PM

Just In:

Bank of England set for biggest interest rate rise in 27 years.

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Topic :- Time:2.10 PM

Nifty is zooming and banknifty is turning further bullish now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17320 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17280 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:1.45 PM

LME INVENTORY DATA:

Aluminum down by -2900MT

Copper up by 700MT

Lead down by -625MT

Nickel up by 174MT

Zinc down by -775MT

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

NATURALGAS Trading View:

NG is trading at 626.50.If it breaks and trade below 626 level then expect some further decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 627.80 level then some upmove can follow in NG.

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Topic :- Time:1.20 PM

Just In:

Indias manufacturing PMI hits 8-month high in July.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if now manages to trade and sustain above 17300 level then expect some further upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17260 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty. Currently Nifty spot is trading at 17290.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 655.30.If it breaks and trade below 654.20 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 656.50 level then some upmove can be seen in Copper.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Nifty is trading in a range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17280 level then expect some upmove and below 17260 level some decline can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty is going strong now. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17280 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17260 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Results on August 1

ITC, UPL, Zomato, Arvind, Bajaj Consumer Care, Barbeque-Nation Hospitality, Carborundum Universal, Castrol India, Escorts Kubota, Eveready Industries India, Indo Count Industries, Kansai Nerolac Paints, Max Financial Services, Prudent Corporate Advisory Services, Punjab & Sind Bank, The Ramco Cements, RateGain Travel Technologies, Thyrocare Technologies, Triveni Turbine, and Varun Beverages will be in focus ahead of June quarter earnings on August 1.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 August, 2022:

Nifty to trade volatile and is likely to follow global cues.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17200 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17100 level then some decline can be seen in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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US dollar wallows near 3-week low on bets for less aggressive Fed

1. August 2022 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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The dollar hung near a three-week low to major peers on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the US economy at risk of recession

By Kevin Buckland

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar hung near a three-week low to major peers on Monday as markets continued to wager that the Federal Reserve has less tightening to do with the U.S. economy at risk of recession.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts, edged 0.1% lower to 105.89, slipping back toward Friday's low of 105.53, a level not seen since July 5.

Data at the end of last week tossed the greenback in both directions, rising initially after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed the fastest inflation since 2005, only to sink after the final University of Michigan report - closely watched by Fed policymakers - showed slipping consumer inflation expectations.

The big economic focus for this week will be the monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday.

Traders currently price about 31% probability that the Fed will keep its current 75 basis-point pace of rate hikes at its next meeting on Sept. 21, with 69% odds for a smaller half point increase.

"Markets look to be betting the Fed has done the lion's share of its task on inflation and will be receptive to slowing activity data," Taylor Nugent, a markets economist at NAB in Sydney, wrote in a client note.

The dollar slipped 0.22% to 132.925 yen, heading back toward the six-week low of 132.505 reached on Friday.

The currency pair is extremely sensitive to changes in U.S. long-term Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year hovering around 2.67% after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week.

The euro, however, edged 0.07% lower to $1.0218, continuing its consolidation near the middle of its range over the past week and a half.

Sterling was about flat at $1.2186, after hitting the highest since June 28 at $1.2245 on Friday. Markets are laying 67% odds for a half-point rate hike on Thursday, compared to 33% probability of a quarter-point increase.

The Reserve Bank of Australia sets policy on Tuesday, and is expected to deliver another half point increase, with traders seeing just a 16% chance of a smaller quarter point tightening.

The Aussie dollar slipped 0.19% to $0.69775 on Monday, but after touching a six-week high of $0.7032 in the previous session.

"Should the market continue to hear what it wants from the Fed, the Aussie can readily spend more time above $0.70," NAB's Nugent said.

"But $0.65-0.70 is still seen containing most of the price action in coming months."

Insignia Ventures raises $516 million, bets on Southeast Asian tech firms

1. August 2022 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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"We could have raised a much higher amount but we have learned that smaller, tighter funds do better," Insignia's founding managing partner Yinglan Tan said in a statement on Monday.

Insignia Ventures Partners has raised $516 million for its latest funds as the Southeast Asia-focused early stage tech venture fund doubles down on the region's digital economy.

"We could have raised a much higher amount but we have learned that smaller, tighter funds do better," Insignia's founding managing partner Yinglan Tan said in a statement on Monday.

The fundraising includes $388 million for Insignia's third fund, $28 million for an entrepreneurs' pool that invests alongside the main fund and an Annex Fund I at $100 million, said the five-year-old firm that has backed more than 70 companies.

Venture capital firms have been ramping up investments in Southeast Asia as rising consumer adoption of digital platforms since the COVID-19 pandemic fuels startups across many sectors.

Insignia said investors for its third fund, which was oversubscribed, included sovereign wealth funds, university endowments and family offices from Asia, Europe and North America.

"We see a once-in-a-decade opportunity to capture outlier returns, as the winners become very obvious when the tide goes out," said Tan, referring to the weak market environment.

Like global peers, Southeast Asian tech firms have seen sharp declines in their share prices from late last year as investors baulk at higher valuations and slowing economies.

Insignia's portfolio companies include Southeast Asian car marketplace Carro, Indonesia's biggest tech firm GoTo, and Indonesian digital investment platform Ajaib.

GST collection rises to Rs 1.49 lakh crore in July, up 28% YoY

1. August 2022 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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At Rs 1.49 lakh crore, the July GST mop-up is the new second-highest amount collected in a month

India collected Rs 1.49 lakh crore as Goods and Services Tax (GST) in July, posting an increase of 28 percent from the same month last year, the finance ministry said on August 1.

Compared to the money collected in June, the July GST mop-up was 3 percent higher.

"For five months in a row now, the monthly GST revenues have been more than Rs 1.4 lakh core, showing a steady increase every month," the finance ministry said in a statement.

Of the total GST collections, Central GST was Rs 25,751 crore, while State GST was Rs 32,807 crore. Integrated GST was Rs 79,518 crore and cess was Rs 10,920 crore.

The government settled Rs 32,365 crore to Central GST and Rs 26,774 crore to State GST from Integrated GST. As such, post settlement, the total revenue of the Centre and the States in July was Rs 58,116 crore and Rs 59,581 crore, respectively.

Manufacturing activity improves in July, PMI rises to 8-month high of 56.4

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India's manufacturing activity improved in July as S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an eight-month high of 56.4. HSBC H1 pre-tax profit falls, says to pay quarterly dividends

In June, India's manufacturing PMI was at a nine-month low of 53.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

This is the 13th consecutive 50-plus print for the manufacturing PMI.

"The Indian manufacturing industry recorded a welcome combination of faster economic growth and softening inflation during July," noted Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Output expanded at the fastest pace since last November, a trend that was matched by the more forward-looking indicator new orders." De Lima added.

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5G spectrum auction: Day 4 sale at Rs 232 crore; bidding to continue

30. July 2022 sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Analysts say that the war will end if one of the players blinks

On the fourth day of the ongoing spectrum auction, the government earned an incremental revenue of Rs 232 crore. The bidding continues as telcos are engaged in a race for spectrum in the 1800 MHz band in just one circle: Uttar Pradesh (East). The 1800 MHz band is meant mostly for 4G services.

After 23 bidding rounds, with seven on Friday, the government’s total revenue from the auction has touched Rs 149,855 crore. The bidding will resume on Saturday.

The price of the spectrum increased by more than 44.8 per cent over the base price of Rs 18.65 crore per block (each block of 0.2 MHz). And the demand continued to be in excess of supply, like it was on Thursday, with telcos collectively bidding for 75 blocks while the availability remains at 54.

While the government was able to rustle up a final bid amount of Rs 145,000 crore on day one in four rounds, it added only Rs 4,855 crore in the next three days after additional 19 rounds. In the last two days, the revenue has gone up by just Rs 401 crore.

ALSO READ: Has the 5G auction been a success?

Analysts say that the war will end if one of the players blinks. The telcos have made a total demand for 15 MHz of spectrum. This is much more than what is available (10.8 MHz). The excess demand is for 4.2 MHz, based on the numbers.

With 16 MHz of spectrum in 1800 MHz band in the UP (East) circle, Bharti Airtel is clearly looking to hit the 20 MHz mark, say analysts. They point out that Reliance Jio, with 10 MHz, might be wanting to double its spectrum. Even Vodafone Idea, with 10 MHz, may be in the race for the same in this circle.

Despite the auction hitting the fifth day, the price of the 1800 band in UP (East) at Rs 135.09 crore per MHz is still cheaper than the reserve price in the 2021 auction, experts explain. It was at Rs 153 crore a MHz then. So there may be a lot of action still left.

From the operators’ perspective, UP (East) for Bharti accounts for a substantial 10.2 per cent of its total subscriber market share. Bharti is ahead of Reliance Jio in the circle. However, it accounts for 7.6 per cent of Bharti’s overall revenue share. In the case of Jio, which is number two in the circle, it accounts for 8 per cent of its overall subscriber base and 7.19 per cent share of its revenues. For Vodafone Idea, however, it accounts for 7.82 per cent of its overall subscriber base but only 4 per cent of its overall revenues.

Except in UP (East), the base price in these auctions is equivalent to the market price, prompting industry stakeholders and analysts to point at a ‘’faulty’’ structure. This is mainly due to the steep base price

Speed up release of undertrial prisoners: PM Narendra Modi

30. July 2022 sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Addressing the first All India District Legal Services Authorities Meet here, Narendra Modi also said that ease of justice was as important as ease of doing business and ease of living.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 16 urged the judiciary to speed up the release of undertrials languishing in various jails awaiting legal aid. Addressing the first All India District Legal Services Authorities Meet here, he also said that ease of justice was as important as ease of doing business and ease of living.

"There are several undertrials in jails awaiting legal aid. Our District Legal Services Authorities can take up the responsibility of providing legal assistance to undertrials," the prime minister said.

Modi urged district judges attending the conference to speed up the release of undertrials using their offices as chairpersons of district-level undertrial review committees.

The prime minister noted that the National Legal Services Authority has started a campaign in this matter and urged the Bar Council of India to align more lawyers with this effort.

Share Market Closing Note | Indian Stock Market Trading View For 29 July2022

29. July 2022 sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Share Market Closing Note

Stock market highlights: Benchmark indices settled near the days high on Friday as investors lapped up metal and IT shares, along with index heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC twins, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Finance. Share Market Highlights: Sensex ends 246 pts higher, Nifty above 16300; ICICI Bank, Axis Bank lead gains | The Financial Express

The S&P BSE Sensex soared 712 points, or 1.25 per cent, to end at 57,570, while the Nifty50 shut shop at 17,158, up 229 points or 1.35 per cent. In the broader market, the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices, too, added over 1 per cent each.

Sectorally, the Nifty Metal index climbed 4 per cent, followed by the Nifty IT index (2 per cent). Public sector banks were the only losers with the Nifty PSB index down 1.2 per cent.

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Topic :- Time:3.15 PM

Nifty spot close above 17140 level will result in some further upmove in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement will follow.

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Topic :- Time:2.45 PM

Just In:

New fund offer (NFO) review: Quant Large Cap Fund NFO will be open for subscription until August 3. investments.

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Topic :- Time:2.20 PM

Just In:

Ashok Leyland Q1 result |Profit at Rs 68 crore, revenue up 145%.

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Topic :- Time:2.10 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17100 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 17060 level then some decline can follow in Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

ZINC Trading View:

ZINC is trading at 290.60.If it breaks and trade below 290.30 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 291.00 level then some upmove can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.15 PM

Just In:

Textile exporters reach out to big Australian companies.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17120 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 17080 level then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 51640.If it manages to hold above 51550 level then expect some quick upmove in it and it is likely to test 51850 level soon. Buy on decline till it holds above 51550 level. Once it breaks and trade below 51550 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.10 PM

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17120 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17080 level then some decline can be seen in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex up 500 pts; Tata Steel surges 7%, Dr Reddys sheds 4%

2. PM Modi to launch Indias first international bullion exchange in Gujarat

3. First global gold exchange in India aims to create regional bullion hub

4. Rupee gains vs dollar as weak US GDP data softens Fed rate hike view

5. Irdai may offer more flexibility to insurers in corporate agency tie-ups

6. ReNew to invest $8 billion to set up green hydrogen plant in Egypt

7. SBI Life Insurance rallies 9.5%, hits new 52-week high on strong Q1 results

8. Ashok Leyland soars to a 4-year high, up 6% ahead of June quarter results

9. TVS Motor surges 10%, hits all-time high post strong June quarter results

10. Centre likely to allow 1.2 MT additional sugar exports this season

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After gap up opening nifty is trading little volatile now in a range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17080 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17020 level then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Results on July 29 and July 30

HDFC, NTPC, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Indian Oil Corporation, Ashok Leyland, DLF, Emami, Exide Industries, Nazara Technologies, Piramal Enterprises, CARE Ratings, CarTrade Tech, Cholamandalam Investment, CreditAccess Grameen, Deepak Fertilisers, Easy Trip Planners, 3i Infotech, Great Eastern Shipping, GMR Infrastructure, Godrej Agrovet, Heritage Foods, JK Paper, Mahindra Logistics, Metro Brands, Rain Industries, Route Mobile, Strides Pharma Science, Star Health and Allied Insurance Company, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, VST Industries, and Zydus Wellness will be in focus ahead of June quarter earnings on July 29.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 29 July2022:

USA is officially into recession state now. However it is already discounted. Stock specific action expected in the market. Result figures to be monitored.

Nifty future if manages to trade and sustain above 16960 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16880 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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PNB raises asset quality guidance, aims to lower net NPA to 3.5% by March

29. July 2022 sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Gross NPAs reduced to 11.27% in April-June quarter from 14.33% a year ago; eight accounts worth Rs 2,486 cr will be transferred to NARCL

State-owned Punjab National Bank has raised its asset quality guidance and seeks to lower net non-performing assets (NPA) to 3.5 per cent by March 2023-end from 4.28 per cent on June 30, 2022.

The Delhi-based lender had earlier projected lowering net NPA to sub-4 per cent level by end of the current fiscal.

“...On account of actions taken by the bank, net NPA is going to be reduced to 3.5 per cent definitely by March 2023. I’m confident of achieving this number," PNB managing director Atul Kumar Goel said at the post-earnings press conference.

In April-June, PNB’s net NPAs declined to 4.28 per cent from 5.84 per cent a year ago and 4.8 per cent in January-March 2022. In absolute terms, the net NPA of the banks stood at Rs 31,744 crore on June 2022, versus Rs 38,581 crore in June 2021.

The lender’s gross NPAs reduced to 11.27 per cent in April-June from 14.33 per cent a year ago. Gross NPAs, in absolute terms, stood at Rs 90,167 crore on June 2022 as compared to Rs 1.04 trillion in June 2021. PNB seeks to bring down gross NPAs to single digits by the end of the current financial year, Goel said.

The bank has formed a team of about 300 officials who monitor all NPA accounts, Goel said. It is attempting to improve recoveries from bad loans and is monitoring all accounts including those on which Sarfaesi or NCLT proceedings are underway, he added.

Goel said the bank has made recoveries of over Rs 7,000 crore in April-June, and it expects to recover Rs 8,000-9,000 crore every quarter. It wants to ensure that its recoveries are higher than slippages, he added.

The lender has identified eight accounts worth Rs 2,486 crore that will be transferred to the National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL). All banks collectively are expected to transfer bad loans of Rs 50,000 crore to NARCL, Goel said, who is also chairman of Indian Banks Association, and is spearheading the rollout of the government-backed asset reconstruction company.

On Friday, the bank reported a 70 per cent decline in net profit to Rs 308.4 crore in April-June. Goel said the dip was caused by a fall in treasury profit due to a rise in interest rates and mark-to-market losses. Treasury profit dropped from Rs 1,118 crore in June 2021 quarter to Rs 573 crore in April-June 2022, Goel said.

In April-June 2022, PNB took a hit of Rs 1,409 crore in MTM losses while in the June 2021 quarter, there was a reversal of MTM of about Rs 301 crore, he added.

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