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CBI arrests ex-NSE GOO Anand Subramanian over alleged irregularities

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Subramanian was questioned for days in Chennai before the agency decided to arrest him, the officials said

CBI arrests ex-NSE GOO Anand Subramanian over irregularities in National  Stock Exchange

The CBI has arrested former Group Operating Officer of Anand Subramanian after expanding its three-year probe into the co-location scam in the exchange in view of "fresh facts" that emerged in a damning report referring to a mysterious Yogi which was guiding actions of former CEO Chitra Ramkrishna and other irregularities, officials said on Friday.

Subramanian was taken into custody late Thursday night in Chennai, Tamil Nadu, they said.

He was questioned for days in Chennai early this week during which he was found evasive in his responses to the sleuths which prompted the (CBI) to examine him in custody, the officials said.

The agency will produce him before a court in Chennai for his transit remand to bring him to Delhi, they said.

Once the plea is granted, the CBI will bring him to the national capital and produce him before a special court for seeking his custodial remand for questioning in connection with the case at its headquarters, they added.

An audit report allegedly referred to Subramanian as a mysterious Yogi, but it was dismissed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in its report on February 11, the officials said.

Ramkrishna, who succeeded former CEO Ravi Narain in 2013, had appointed Subramanian as her advisor who was later elevated as Group Operating Officer (GOO) at a fat pay cheque of Rs 4.21 crore.

Subramanian's controversial appointment and later elevation besides crucial decisions were guided by an unidentified person who Ramkrishna claimed was a formless mysterious Yogi dwelling in Himalayas, a probe into Ramkrishna's email exchanges during the Sebi-ordered audit showed.

It was alleged in an audit that Subramanian was the Yogi, but dismissed that claim in its final report on February 11.

Ramakrishna had left the NSE in December 2016.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India on February 11 has charged former (NSE) CEO Ramkrishna and others with alleged governance lapses in the appointment of Subramanian as the chief strategic advisor and his re-designation as group operating officer and advisor to MD.

has levied a fine of Rs 3 crore on Ramkrishna, Rs 2 crore each on NSE, Subramanian, former NSE MD and CEO Ravi Narain, and Rs 6 lakh on V R Narasimhan, who was the chief regulatory officer and compliance officer.

The CBI, which was probing the co-location scam since 2018 against a Delhi-based stock broker, swung into action after the Sebi report which showed alleged abuse of power by the then top brass of the NSE, the officials said.

The agency expanded its probe and grilled Ramkrishna, Narain and Subramanian in connection with the scam, they said.

The central probe agency had booked stock broker Sanjay Gupta, owner and promoter of Delhi-based OPG Securities Pvt. Ltd, in 2018 for allegedly making gains by getting early access to the stock market trading system, the officials said.

The agency was also probing unidentified officials of the Sebi and the NSE, Mumbai, and other unknown persons.

"It was alleged that the owner and promoter of said private company abused the server architecture of NSE in conspiracy with unknown officials of NSE. It was also alleged that unknown officials of NSE, Mumbai had provided unfair access to said company using the co-location facility during the period 2010-2012 that enabled it to login first to the exchange server of Stock Exchange that helped to get the data before any other broker in the market," the CBI has alleged in the FIR.

Read Also|  Isn’t it a good idea to look at the markets when there is blood on the Street?

Isn’t it a good idea to look at the markets when there is blood on the Street?

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War presents a unique opportunity to buy quality cheap and smart investors got to be greedy when others are fearful.

Isn't it a good idea to look at the markets when there is blood on the  Street?
War jitters have been short-lived, recovery predictable- Inflation bigger concern than war in Ukraine- Ukranian conflict unlikely to involve multiple nations now- Correction an opportunity to buy Blue Chip stocks- Indian recovery gaining momentum – earnings story intact- Be greedy when others are fearful

War is never a pleasant reality for anyone and, since equity markets hate uncertainty, the formal attack on Ukraine by Russia after weeks of posturing, met with jitters in global markets. Mirroring the global sentiment, the Indian benchmark Nifty went into a tailspin with a single-day fall of close to 5 percent on Thursday.

Drawing from history …

Geopolitical conflict tends to cause market volatility, at least in the beginning. Logically, investors may assume that the volatility will continue throughout the war period. However, history shows that this isn’t the case.

From the beginning of World War II to its end, the US benchmark Dow was up more than 50 percent, over 7 percent per year. During both the combined world wars periods, the stock market grew 115 percent.

The Vietnam War and the two Gulf wars are examples of conflicts that brought about extremely short-lived drops followed by long upward trajectories.

On an average, the S&P 500 (US) had been 6.5 percent in the negative territory for 3 months following an armed conflict (either global or smaller), and around 13 percent in the positive zone 12 months after the said conflict. But there are times when the market reactions have been more positive.

Investors can, therefore, see some discerning trends here. War and conflict bring sudden crashes, varying in their degrees and depths. But usually, the recovery is relatively solid and predictable.

Markets worry more about inflation than a WW III

The reason why the current geopolitical tension is so crucial is because the armed conflict coincides with one of the highest threats of inflation since World War II. The Covid-led supply disruption, coupled with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, had already pushed inflation in most nations much beyond the comfort zone. Moreover, with a key commodity and crude exporter at the heart of this conflict, the escalation in commodity prices is here to stay.

However, Ukraine being neither a member of the EU or the NATO, we do not see the Western powers getting involved on the ground at this stage. However, harsher western sanctions on Russia cannot be ruled out. The sanctions imposed so far are wide-ranging but they fall short in terms of severity. Russia is reasonably well prepared to face sanctions and the only meaningful blow could be the exclusion of Moscow from the global payment system. But given Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, a drastic escalation in tension, involving others, is improbable. In a larger war, it's possible to see trade disruptions, but a localised conflict in Ukraine is unlikely to incrementally affect global supply chains.

While every time market capitulates it seems “this time is different”, going by history, the armed conflict in Ukraine will not have a much long-term impact on the markets. Rather, we will continue to be led by the Fed and its policy changes with regard to inflation and overall interest rates. After a long run-up in global equities, war could be a perfect excuse to take profits.

Rather than worrying to catch the bottom, investors should gradually start nibbling at good quality stocks.

What to buy as the guns fire and markets capitulate?

Investors cannot take refuge in fixed-income instruments as rising inflation is bad for bonds.

So the focus should be on bargain-buying quality companies. Investors should look for at least a 10-20 percent undervaluation to conservative fair value for investments. Once this principle is followed, a 5-10 percent drawdown in the general market won't really matter, given the historical appreciation within 12 months.

Companies with business moat, leadership position, and solid balance sheets should be looked into — in short, buy the Blue Chip stocks that you don't get cheap unless there's a drop. This is not the time to experiment with the next multi-bagger.

Isn’t US rate hike round the corner?

The geopolitical jitters could delay the intensity of the US rate hike. Emerging markets, including India, have already seen FII outflows that could aggravate in the coming months.

However, unlike the past, when FIIs used to rule the bourses, the long-term journey of Indian markets will ride on domestic liquidity. India’s changing demographics, with a young population having no social security benefits, and negative real interest rates augur well for domestic inflows into equities. The record number of new demat accounts and the soaring monthly contribution to SIPs (systematic investment plans) stand testimony to the same. This domestic liquidity should provide downside support to equities.

Earnings, which we believe is the ultimate driver of equities, are also looking strong. The recovery from Covid’s deadly second wave and the short-lived third wave has been swift. The recovery is gathering momentum across sectors. Monsoon, which has a great bearing on the rural economy, consumption, and agri-related businesses, is also expected to be normal. Order bookings of capital goods companies are looking up and, after two years of disruption, discretionary consumption is making a comeback while supply chain issues are easing. However, commodity prices remain a niggling worry.

We do not expect any major negative earnings impact on the Nifty in the next couple of years, as the two heavyweight sectors — financials and technology — look to be in fine fettle. Riding on the recovery and better asset quality, we expect financials to manage the marginal pressure on interest margin. The unprecedented demand for digitisation and the gradual easing of talent shortage augur well for technology earnings, while currency depreciation could be a feather in the cap. The diversified heavyweight conglomerate Reliance Industries should continue to benefit from the recovery in all its businesses. With very little weightage of cyclicals, we rule out a meaningful downgrade to Nifty earnings.

The correction is beginning to take away the froth from the market’s valuation. The gap between the bond yield and the earnings yield is down to 1.38 percent, showing that markets are fast entering the value zone.

From the peak of October 21, the benchmark Nifty index has fallen close to 12 percent. However, over 66 percent of the stocks in the BSE 500 have corrected more. So a bottom-up stock picker can land a bargain.

However, if investors are little more risk averse, buying into the Nifty index gradually, with every correction, is a great way of building long-term wealth.

From a top-down perspective, we would go with export-oriented sectors, ranging from technology to chemicals. Leaders from the financial pack and high-touch sectors benefitting from Covid recovery could see strong earnings. The discretionary as well as the non-discretionary consumption should benefit from the normalisation of demand. On the industrial side, companies with order-book visibility, lean balance sheet with minimum leverage, and companies gaining from Atmanirbhar Bharat and, hence from the various PLI (production linked incentive) schemes, should be on the radar

War presents a unique opportunity to buy quality cheap and smart investors got to be greedy when others are fearful.

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Putin announces military operation in Ukraine to 'protect' civilians

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In a televised address, Putin said the action comes in response to 'threats' coming from Ukraine

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping

Russian President on Thursday announced a military operation in and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen.”

He said the attack was needed to protect civilians in eastern – a claim the U.S. had predicted he would falsely make to justify an invasion

In a televised address, Putin accused the U.S. and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demand to prevent from joining NATO and offer Moscow security guarantees. He said Russia's goal was not to occupy Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden denounced the “unprovoked and unjustified” attack on Ukraine and said the world will “hold accountable.”

As Putin spoke, big explosions were heard in Kyiv, Kharkiv and other areas of Ukraine.

A full-blown Russian invasion could cause massive casualties and topple Ukraine’s democratically elected government. And the consequences of the conflict and resulting sanctions levied on could reverberate throughout the world, affecting energy supplies in Europe, jolting global financial markets and threatening the post-Cold War balance on the continent.

He said the Russian military operation aims to ensure a “demilitarization” of Ukraine. Putin urged Ukrainian servicemen to “immediately put down arms and go home.”

Putin announced the military operation after the Kremlin said rebels in eastern Ukraine asked for military assistance to help fend off Ukrainian “aggression." The announcement immediately fueled fears that Moscow was offering up a pretext for war, just as the West had warned.

A short time later, the Ukrainian president rejected Moscow’s claims that his country poses a threat to Russia and said a Russian invasion would cost tens of thousands of lives.

“The people of Ukraine and the government of Ukraine want peace,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an emotional overnight address, speaking in Russian in a direct appeal to Russian citizens. “But if we come under attack, if we face an attempt to take away our country, our freedom, our lives and lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. When you attack us, you will see our faces, not our backs.”

READ MORE: Ukrainian president pleads for peace amid growing fears of Russian attack

Zelenskyy said he asked to arrange a call with Putin late Wednesday, but the Kremlin did not respond.

In an apparent reference to Putin’s move to authorize the deployment of the Russian military to “maintain peace” in eastern Ukraine, Zelensky warned that “this step could mark the start of a big war on the European continent.”

“Any provocation, any spark could trigger a blaze that will destroy everything,” he said.

He challenged the Russian propaganda claims, saying that “you are told that this blaze will bring freedom to the people of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian people are free.”

The United Nations Security Council quickly scheduled an emergency meeting Wednesday night at Ukraine's request. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the separatists’ request “a further escalation of the security situation.”

Anxiety about an imminent Russian offensive against its neighbor soared after Putin recognized the separatist regions' independence on Monday, endorsed the deployment of troops to the rebel territories and received parliamentary approval to use military force outside the country. The West responded with sanctions.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the rebel chiefs wrote to Putin on Wednesday, pleading with him to intervene after Ukrainian shelling caused civilian deaths and crippled vital infrastructure.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the separatists' request for Russian help was an example of the sort of “false-flag” operation that the U.S. and its allies have expected Moscow to use as a pretense for war.

"So we’ll continue to call out what we see as false-flag operations or efforts to spread misinformation about what the actual status is on the ground,” she said.

Earlier in the day, Ukrainian lawmakers approved a decree that imposes a nationwide state of emergency for 30 days starting Thursday. The measure allows authorities to declare curfews and other restrictions on movement, block rallies and ban political parties and organizations “in the interests of national security and public order.”

READ MORE: Ukraine's parliament approves state of emergency amid Russia tensions

The action reflected increasing concern among Ukrainian authorities after weeks of trying to project calm. The Foreign Ministry advised against travel to Russia and recommended that any Ukrainians who are there leave immediately.

“For a long time, we refrained from declaring a state of emergency ... but today the situation has become more complicated,“ Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council head Oleksiy Danilov told parliament, emphasizing that Moscow's efforts to destabilize Ukraine represented the main threat.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the Russian force of more than 150,000 troops arrayed along Ukraine’s borders is in an advanced state of readiness. “They are ready to go right now,” Kirby said.

The latest images released by the Maxar satellite image company showed Russian troops and military equipment deployed within 10 miles of the Ukrainian border and less than 50 miles from Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv.

Early Thursday, airspace over all of Ukraine was shut down to civilian air traffic, according to a notice to airmen. A commercial flight tracking website showed that an Israeli El Al Boeing 787 flying from Tel Aviv to Toronto turned abruptly out of Ukrainian airspace before detouring over Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. The only other aircraft tracked over Ukraine was a U.S. RQ-4B Global Hawk unmanned surveillance plane, which began flying westward early Thursday after Russia put in place flight restrictions over Ukrainian territory.

Another wave of distributed-denial-of-service attacks hit Ukraine’s parliament and other government and banking websites on Wednesday, and cybersecurity researchers said unidentified attackers had also infected hundreds of computers with destructive malware.

Officials have long said they expect cyberattacks to precede and accompany any Russian military incursion, and analysts said the incidents hew to a nearly two-decade-old Russian playbook of wedding cyber operations with real-world aggression.

READ MORE: Ukraine hit by more cyberattacks, destructive malware amid Russia tensions

In other developments, Russia evacuated its embassy in Kyiv; Ukraine recalled its ambassador to Russia and considered breaking all diplomatic ties with Moscow and dozens of nations further squeezed Russian oligarchs and banks out of markets.

President Joe Biden allowed sanctions to move forward against the company that built the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and against the company’s CEO.

“As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate,” Biden said in a statement.

Germany said Tuesday that it was indefinitely suspending the project, after Biden charged that Putin had launched “the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine” by sending troops into the separatist regions. The pipeline is complete but has not yet begun operating.

Putin said Tuesday that he had not yet sent any Russian troops into the rebel regions, contrary to Western claims, and Donetsk rebel leader Denis Pushilin insisted Wednesday there were no Russian troops in the region, even though a local council member claimed the previous day they had moved in.

Already, the threat of war has shredded Ukraine's economy and raised the specter of massive casualties, energy shortages across Europe and global economic chaos.

European Union sanctions against Russia took effect, targeting several companies along with 351 Russian lawmakers who voted for a motion urging Putin to recognize the rebel regions and 27 senior government officials, business executives and top military officers.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has shrugged off the sanctions, saying that “Russia has proven that, with all the costs of the sanctions, it is able to minimize the damage.”

In Ukraine's east, one Ukrainian soldier was killed and six more wounded after rebel shelling, the Ukrainian military said Wednesday. Separatist officials reported several explosions on their territory overnight and three civilian deaths.

Facing a barrage of criticism at the 193-member United Nations General Assembly, Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, warned Ukraine that Russia will monitor a cease-fire in the east and emphasized that “no one intends to go softly, softly with any violators.”

“A new military adventure” by Kyiv “might cost the whole of Ukraine very dearly,” he warned ominously.

After weeks of rising tensions, Putin's steps this week dramatically raised the stakes. He recognized the independence of the separatist regions, a move he said extends even to the large parts of the territories now held by Ukrainian forces, and had parliament grant him authority to use military force outside the country.

Putin laid out three conditions that he said could end the standoff, urging Kyiv to renounce its bid to join NATO, to partially demilitarize and to recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine long has rejected such demands.

Article Source:- business-standard.

Moody's raises India 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.5% from 7%

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The upward revision in the growth forecast for 2022 means the rating agency sees India growing 8.4 percent in FY23 - 60 basis points faster than what the Reserve Bank of India has forecast Moody's raises India 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.5% from 7%

Moody's Investors Service has raised its GDP growth forecast for India for the current calendar year to 9.5 percent from 7 percent, citing a stronger-than-expected economic recovery from the national lockdown of 2020 and the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2021.

The  GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been retained at 5.5 percent.

The calendar year forecasts translate into a projection of 8.4 percent growth for FY23 and 6.5 percent for FY24. The FY23 projection is 60 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 7.8 percent. However, the central government's Economic Survey for 2021-22 estimated a real GDP growth rate of 8-8.5 percent for the next financial year, with the 2022 Budget assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 11.1 percent.

"Sales tax collection, retail activity and PMIs (Purchasing Managers Indices) suggest solid momentum. However, high oil prices and supply distortions remain a drag on growth," Moody's said on February 23 in an update to its Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 report.

"As is the case in many other countries, the recovery is lagging in contact-intensive services sectors, but it should pick up as the Omicron wave subsides. With most remaining restrictions now being lifted with the improvement in the COVID situation, including the reopening of schools and colleges for in-person instruction across various states, the country is on its way to normalcy," Moody's added.

The rating agency said that its growth forecast of 9.5 percent for 2022 assumed "relatively restrained sequential growth rates". As such, it sees some upside potential.

It added that 2022 Budget prioritised growth, while the RBI's monetary policy remained supportive.


India will have 20-30 new energy, tech companies which will grow as big as RIL in 10-20 years: Mukesh Ambani

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Mukesh Ambani said that India can emerge as an export hub for green energy, driven by three factors– entrepreneurial spirit, proactive and forward-looking policy support and action from the government, and assured financing options. India can emerge as a green energy export hub and superpower, driven by the entrepreneurial spirit, government policies and availability of financing options, Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani said on February 23.

Mukesh Ambani says these 20-30 companies can become as big as Reliance  Industries in 10-20 years - The Financial Express

Speaking at the ‘Asia Economic Dialogue 2022’, Ambani said that India’s clean and green energy sector has the potential of half a trillion dollars of export in the next 20 years.

In the last 20 years, we were known for India’s emergence as an IT superpower; the next 20 years, I believe, along with technology, will mark our emergence as a superpower in energy and life sciences,” Ambani said.

He said that India can emerge as an export hub for green energy, driven by three factors– entrepreneurial spirit, proactive and forward-looking policy support and action from the government, and assured financing options.

“I foresee at least 20-30 new Indian companies in the energy and tech space which will grow as big as Reliance, if not bigger, in the next 10-20 years,” he said.

Ambani also said that energy transition will determine geopolitical transition in the 21st century, as new fuel would replace conventional fuel.

“When India becomes not only self-sufficient in green and clean energy, but also a large exporter, it will help India emerge as a global power,” Ambani said.

He said that energy transition would boost job creation, and lead to foreign exchange savings on energy and electronics import bills.

Last year, RIL announced an ambitious clean energy plan that will entail three parts, that include, Rs 60,000-core investment in four giga-factories to manufacture and fully integrate all critical components for the business; Rs 15,000-crore infusion in the value chain, partnerships, and future technologies.

Ambani said that India needs to address three challenges– the country must increase energy output at an affordable price to drive double-digit GDP growth, it must increase the share of green and clean energy, it must achieve the goal of ‘Self-reliance or Atmanirbhar Bharat’.

Green hydrogen would be a priority, as Ambani said the group aims to offer hydrogen energy at under $1 a kg in a decade.  

Read Also | RBI's digital currency: What the global experience holds for India

Dubai adds to striking architecture with Museum of Future

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Dubai opened its Museum of the Future on Tuesday, a structure it touts as the world's most beautiful building.Dubai adds to striking architecture with Museum of Future

The museum is a seven-storey hollow silver ellipse decorated with Arabic calligraphy quotes from Dubai's ruler. It takes pride of place on Sheikh Zayed Road, the city's main highway.

The building's striking facade was lit up by a colourful laser light show in the evening as crowds gathered outside to catch a glimpse.

It was officially opened later by Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, whose vision of the future has been credited as the driving force behind the museum.

While the museum's contents are yet to be revealed, it will exhibit design and technology innovations, taking the visitor on a "journey to the year 2071", organisers said.

Roadside signboards described the museum -- just minutes away from the world's tallest construction, the Burj Khalifa -- as the "most beautiful building on Earth" ahead of its gala opening.

It is the latest addition to the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) collection of flashy architecture and comes after the $7-billion Expo world fair, featuring a swathe of futuristic designs, opened on Dubai's outskirts on September 30.

The UAE's capital Abu Dhabi is home to another landmark design, a branch of France's Louvre museum, whose licence was extended by a decade last year to 2047 at a cost of 165 million euros ($186 million).

After French President Emmanuel Macron opened the Louvre Abu Dhabi in late 2017, it attracted about two million visitors in its first two years before Covid hit.

The UAE is a major oil exporter but also a big player in business, trade, transport and tourism, diversifying to reduce its reliance on crude.

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RBI's digital currency: What the global experience holds for India

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India's upcoming Central Bank Digital Currency may be seen in some quarters as a way to replace the public's thirst for private cryptocurrencies. However, the implications are far more significant for non-retail payments

RBI's digital currency: What the global experience holds for India

Digital Rupee | In Budget 2022, the Union government introduced Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) which will give a big boost to digital economy. It is proposed to introduce Digital Rupee based on blockchain and other technologies, and will be issue by the Reserve Bank of India starting this year. (Image: Shutterstock)

In a little more than a year, discussions on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have moved from the fringe to the mainstream. In India, legal enablers for a digital currency have been put in place via the Finance Bill, 2022. All eyes are now on the Reserve Bank of India.

What will the RBI's CBDC look like?

The Finance Bill lays down the likely framework. It proposes that the CBDC "should also be regarded as bank notes". As such, the CBDC ought to be what the name suggests: a currency in all aspects except form.

The proposed change should put to bed certain other questions. Currency notes don't offer interest, so there is no reason for the RBI's CBDC to do so. There are counterviews, most visibly from Sweden's central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, which argued that a non-interest paying CBDC would effectively place a zero lower bound on all interest rates in the economy and thereby limit monetary policy.


For India, positive rates may be a more pertinent territory but if the RBI's views are anything to go by, its CBDC will not carry any interest.

"Basically, digital currency is like a physical rupee only. There is no difference between these two," RBI deputy governor T Rabi Sankar said at the post-monetary policy media briefing on February 10.

The absence of an interest rate should ease fears of CBDCs competing with bank deposits, a balance that central banks don't wish to upend.
KEY DESIGN FEATURES
COUNTRYINTEREST ON CBDCQUANTITATIVE CURBSANONYMITY
The BahamasNoYesFor lower tier
CanadaUndecidedUndecidedUndecided
ChinaNoYesFor lower tier
Eastern Caribbean Currency UnionNoYesFor lower tier
SwedenUndecidedExploringUndecided
UruguayNoYesYes, but traceable

A recent paper by the International Monetary Fund found limited competition between CBDCs and bank deposits. The IMF examined six CBDC projects at an advanced stage and noted that central banks with CBDC projects "have committed to not jeopardising financial stability and avoiding any sudden shifts to the structure of the financial system".

Measures to ensure stability include the CBDC not offering any rate of interest and a cap on the quantity of digital currency that can be held, especially by those who opt for a lower-threshold CBDC wallet that offers the most anonymity.

Also Read: Budget 2022 | Explained: What is Digital Rupee, when will it come and how’s it different from private cryptocurrencies? 10 critical questions answered

Which rupee is which?

There has been confusion about the operational aspects of a CBDC. How would one differentiate between a normal rupee in a bank account that can be used to complete a transaction via internet banking or Unified Payments Interface and a digital rupee or CBDC?

One can turn to The Bahamas for some clarity.

The Central Bank of The Bahamas launched its CBDC, the Sand Dollar, in October 2020. Sand Dollars are held in secured digital wallets, or e-wallets, and can be accessed through a mobile app or physical payment card. Authorised agents enroll users via their proprietary applications.

Users must decide their level of CBDC engagement. The basic e-wallet tier has a holding limit of $500, with a monthly transaction limit of $1,500. Operating under this tier doesn't require the user to furnish any government identity proof. However, it means tier-I e-wallets can't be linked to bank accounts.

Tier-II e-wallets can be linked to bank accounts. They have a far higher holding limit of $8,000 and a monthly transaction limit of $10,000. These facilities require a government issued identity proof for enrolment.

There is a distinction between Bahamian dollars held in a bank account and Sand Dollars in the e-wallet. But they can be moved from one to the other, provided users are willing to give up anonymity and enrol under the higher tier.

If digital and physical currencies are fungible, they should be treated equally on the RBI's balance sheet, with the former also likely to fall under the 'notes issued' head on the liabilities side and backed in full by one financial asset or the other, be it foreign securities or gold.

Retail failure?

The retail frenzy around private cryptocurrencies has been one reason for the speed with which central banks have worked on their CBDCs. However, a CBDC can't be a direct replacement for a private cryptocurrency because of the different purposes they would serve. With no fluctuations in the value of CBDCs, there would be no demand for them as an investment for people to make a quick buck.

More importantly, CBDCs would compete with other modes of payment that have proliferated in the past few years: mobile wallets, UPI, and Immediate Payment Service (IMPS), among others.

Throw in the preference for cash when it comes to small-value transactions and there seems to be no real reason for a non-interest bearing CBDC to gain widespread public acceptance.

The experience in Nigeria, which got its own CBDC, the eNaira, in late 2021, seemingly confirms this view.

"The eNaira has basically been a flop," Alexander Onukwue, Quartz's West Africa correspondent, told Moneycontrol. "Nobody talks about it, nobody talks about using it because it doesn't seem clear what it is supposed to do differently than the normal naira."

The Bahamas' Sand Dollar has perhaps fared better, with the IMF saying there were about 20,000 active e-wallets. With The Bahamas population of just under 400,000, a 5 percent adoption rate is not too shabby.

In value terms, however, the numbers are microscopic. There were $303,785 worth of Sand Dollars in circulation as of December 31, amounting to 0.06 percent of the value of notes in circulation.

Cross-border transactions

Where CBDCs can make a real splash is in cross-border transactions.

According to EY, cross-border payments are expected to hit $156 trillion in 2022, with business-to-business payments accounting for almost 97 percent of them. These payments are expensive and can take several days to settle.

According to this Bank of England chart, which depicts an international payment involving a not-so-common currency pair, the less common the currencies involved, the greater will be the number of correspondent banks needed to complete the payment. At each stage, there will be fees charged and operational delays, including something as simple as normal business hours.

How would a CBDC solve this? Enter Project Dunbar.

The Bank for International Settlements' Project Dunbar brought together the central banks of Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Africa to test a multi-CBDC platform for settling international transactions.

Commercial banks would be able to use the various CBDCs issued to pay each other directly in CBDCs of different currencies. This would make cross-border transactions faster and cheaper as it would do away with the need for intermediaries like correspondent banks.

Of course, it would be quite impossible for all CBDCs to be settled on a single platform. But as the Monetary Authority of Singapore observed in April 2021, such a model would still be beneficial for certain regions.

Project Dunbar is not the only experiment being conducted to test the applicability of CBDCs for international transactions. Others such as Project Jura have been successfully completed with encouraging results.

Closer to India, the Asian Development Bank has set out to connect the central banks of the ASEAN+3 nations—Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, China, and South Korea—via blockchain technology to make their cross-border securities transactions faster and more secure.

While the implications of CBDCs for areas such as monetary policy may not be entirely clear at the moment, it may be that the need to quash the get-rich-quick temptation of private cryptocurrencies could pave the way for a more efficient global payments system.

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Tata Housing to invest $36 million to develop 2 residential projects in Maldives

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Tata Housing, which entered the Maldives market around a decade ago, has already completed a social housing project in the island country in partnership with the Maldives government.Tata Housing to invest $36 million to develop 2 residential projects in  Maldives

Tata group's realty firm Tata Housing on Wednesday announced an investment of USD 36 million (around Rs 270 crore) to develop two luxury residential projects in Maldives. The company will construct around 117 housing units in these two projects.

In a statement, Tata Housing said it has launched another international project in Maldives. Tata Housing, which entered the Maldives market around a decade ago, has already completed a social housing project in the island country in partnership with the Maldives government.

"With an investment of approximately USD 36 million, Tata Housing will develop 2 residential projects at Nadhee and Odean in the city of Male, which will offer approximately 117 units of luxurious 3 bedroom apartments in the region," it said.

Strategically located at Majeedhee Magu City Centre Road, the retail and residential luxury hub of the island, the project is developed in a public-private partnership with the Government of Maldives.

Tata Housing plans to develop these two residential plots with a total development area of 2.52 lakhs square feet, and aims to redefine quality residences in the region. Both projects are in close proximity to the airport.

Commenting on the development, Sanjay Dutt, MD & CEO, Tata Housing & Tata Realty and Infrastructure Ltd, said, "We are excited to launch the second phase of our projects in Maldives. Nadhee & Odean will be the pride of Male City and Maldives Citizens. It is a premier residential development."

Tata Housing is committed towards delivering unmatched spaces and elevating the living experience of its homebuyers, he added.

"This development will be followed by Island developments in the near future," Dutt said. Although Maldives is fast growing, he said the Male City needs more to meet the appetite of growth of Maldives as an economy and the rising standards of its citizens.

"We are committed to play our part as a responsible real estate development company," Dutt said. Tata Realty & Infrastructure Ltd, a subsidiary of Tata Sons, is one of the leading real estate developers in India with an extensive portfolio of over 50 projects across 15 cities spanning commercial properties as well as residential projects.

Tata group is a global enterprise, which operates in more than 100 countries across six continents. Tata's is one of India's largest conglomerates, with annual revenue of over USD 100 billion, employing over 800,000 people worldwide.

Also Read | Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market currencies, says Fitch Ratings

Fuel prices on February 23: Petrol, diesel prices today in Mumbai, Delhi and other cities

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On November 3, the Centre went for the deepest excise duty cut ever to cool prices from record highs, reducing the duty on petrol by Rs 5 and on diesel by Rs 10.

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Petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged on February 22, a notification issued by state-owned fuel retailers showed, with no change in rates for more than 100 days now.

The last rate cut was by Delhi when it reduced the local sales tax, or the value-added tax (VAT), on petrol from 30 to 19.4 percent from December 1 midnight, bringing down the price by around Rs 8 to Rs 95.41 a litre. Diesel price remains unchanged in the national capital at Rs 86.67 a litre.

A few state governments are providing some relief. Nagaland which decreased the tax on petrol and other motor sports from 29.80 percent to 25 percent per litre, saving Rs 2.22 per litre. Diesel tax rates were also reduced from Rs 11.08 to Rs 10.51 per litre. Other states like West Bengal, Rajasthan, Assam, and Meghalaya have lately slashed their petrol and diesel rates.

On November 3, the Centre had gone for the deepest excise duty cut ever to cool retail prices from record highs, reducing the duty on petrol by Rs 5 and on diesel by Rs 10. Many states and union territories followed the Centre's led to give further relief to consumers.

Also Read | Oil nears $100: Petrol, diesel price hike coming after elections

In Mumbai, a November 4 cut reduced the price of petrol to Rs 109.98 a litre, which remains unchanged. Diesel is at Rs 94.14 a litre.

In Kolkata, petrol and diesel prices remained at Rs 104.67 and Rs 89.79. Petrol sold at Rs 101.40 and diesel at Rs 91.43 in Chennai.

The states and union territories cut VAT after the Centre reduced excise duty include Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Sikkim, Mizoram, Daman and Diu, Karnataka and Puducherry.

States that have, so far, not lowered VAT are largely opposition ruled states including Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. TMC-governed West Bengal, Left-ruled Kerala, TRS-led Telangana and YSR Congress-ruled Andhra Pradesh have also not cut VAT.

Also Read | Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market currencies, says Fitch Ratings

The Congress-ruled Punjab has seen the biggest drop in petrol prices after it slashed VAT the most. The union territory of Ladakh has seen the biggest drop in diesel rates.

Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market currencies, says Fitch Ratings

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"Rapid monetary tightening in the US could weaken emerging market currencies and pose multiple policy risks"Faster pace of US monetary tightening may pressure emerging market  currencies, says Fitch Ratings

Currencies of emerging market (EM) nations could come under "significant depreciation pressure" in 2022 if US monetary policy is tightened at a faster clip, Fitch Ratings said in a note on February 21.

The ratings agency added that exchange rate pressures could force EMs into taking monetary policy decisions they would not make otherwise, with risks also emanating from an increase in the interest burden on their dollar-denominated debt.

"A number of EMs, such as Brazil, Chile, Poland, and Russia, have raised policy rates ahead of the US tightening cycle, reducing the potential for capital outflows. In past cycles, EM rate increases often lagged behind those in the US. Inflation in the US is also higher than it has been in decades, making real interest rates there less attractive," Fitch Ratings said.

"Nonetheless, we believe that there is still a risk that EM exchange rates could come under greater pressure this year as US monetary tightening progresses. An increase in global risk aversion could also increase capital flows into US assets."

Fitch said its EM exchange rate index has shown "a marked depreciation" against the US dollar in recent months, although this is largely due to two countries: Turkey and Argentina. Both, Fitch said, are vulnerable as their foreign-currency debt is large.

Fitch's EM exchange rate index weighs emerging economies by the value of their outstanding foreign-currency government debt.

US inflation is at 40-year high, forcing both markets to recalibrate their expectations of how much the central bank may raise interest rates by in 2022. Fitch expects the US federal funds rate target range to be raised by 100 basis points this year and by a similar amount in 2023.

In December 2021, it expected the US central bank to effect a 25-basis-point rate hike in 2022 and a 50-basis-point one in 2023.

An increase in foreign-currency debt burden for EMs due to a stronger greenback would come at a time when government debt has risen across the world to deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic. According to Fitch, the median EM foreign-currency government debt had risen to 31 percent of GDP by the end of 2021 from 18 percent in 2013.

"Policymakers in EMs may feel pressure to raise rates to attract capital inflows or to prevent depreciation that might threaten inflation targets, or financial stability where balance sheets are exposed to exchange-rate risk. This could weigh on growth outlooks, at least in the near term, and so complicate the task of fiscal consolidation for EMs in the wake of the pandemic," Fitch warned.

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