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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.

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India’s industrial output contracted by 1.1 percent month-on-month (MoM) in August, according to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the government on August 9.

Industrial output, or factory output, is the closest approximation for measuring economic activity in the country's business landscape.

Manufacturing output, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, fell 1.2 percent in August, against a 4.2 percent rise in July.

Mining grew 0.1 percent in August against a growth of 4.9 percent in July.

For the April-June period, the eight infrastructure sectors averaged 3.6 percent growth. Exports contracted 1.7 percent during the same period.

India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the March quarter slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 percent, down from 6.6 percent in the December quarter. Annual GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent for the year that ended on March 31 from 7.2 percent in the previous year.

Factory output, which is measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), contracted in March 2019. This was its first such contraction in 21 months, showing declining momentum of both investment and consumption. Even core industries productions of steel, electricity, coal and cement are falling or have been stagnant in recent quarters.

The national income data have reinforced signs that were emanating from a slew of shop-end data, such as car and consumer goods sales, often seen as proxy indicators to gauge trends in household spending.

To combat the slowdown, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman  announced a cut in corporate tax rates in September, bringing it down to 22 percent from 30 percent for existing companies, and to 15 percent from 25 percent for new manufacturing companies.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund cut India’s gross domestic product growth forecast for 2019-20 by 20 basis points to 7.3 percent, followng similar action by the Asian Development Bank and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

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Observing that the GST regime is based on 'one nation, one tax theory', the Bombay High Court quashed a Maharashtra Sales Tax order that had refused refund of input tax credit to the duty-free shops at the Mumbai international airport.

Noting that these shops are eligible to get refund of the input tax credit on the entire amount of Goods and Services Tax (GST) paid, the high court said the imposition of local taxes on these outlets would hamper foreign trade.

A division bench of justices Ranjit More and Bharati Dangre quashed and set aside the January 10 order passed by the Deputy Commissioner of Sales Tax (Mumbai) refusing to refund the input tax credit to the petitioner (owner of duty free shops in Mumbai International Airport Limited-MIAL) pursuant to the sale of duty-free goods from the shops at the departure area of the airport.

The bench noted that the previous order was arbitrary and against the provisions of Article 286 of the Constitution.

Under this article, no state shall impose tax on supply of goods that takes place outside of the state territory and in cases where the supply is made in the course of import into India or in the course of export out of India.

In its order dated October 7, the high court bench noted that if a duty free shop, which caters to international passengers, is subjected to local taxes by the state then the price of the goods, which are supposed to be free of taxes and duties, will go up.

"This would prevent the duty free shops in India from competing with the duty-free shops at international airports elsewhere in the world. This will hamper and prejudicially affect our foreign trade, and augmentation and conservation of foreign exchange," the court stated.

Challenging the sales tax order, the petitioner argued in the high court that duty-free shops at the Mumbai international airport cannot be saddled with burden of taxes or restrictions.

The petitioner had told the court that they get refund of input tax credit pursuant to sales from their other duty free shops in the departure area of other international airports within India.

"The GST regime is based on 'one nation, one tax theory'. The authorities in the state of Maharashtra cannot give a discriminatory treatment, particularly when the refund has been and is being granted in several other states," the bench said in its order.

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Banks, both private and public sector ones, will remain closed on October 8 on account of Dussehra.

The month of October has eight holidays in total, including the working offs on Saturdays and Sundays. There are, however, regional variations, with banks in Kolkata having an extra off on October 7 on account of Maha Navami/Ayudha Pooja.

October 2 was the first bank holiday this month, and the last one for most cities will be on October 28 for Diwali.

Keep these things in mind while planning your finances in October. As the bank holidays have come after the weekend, chances are that ATMs in your areas may run out of cash. Hence, be sure to make provision for cash contingency.

Some banking services like IMPS, NEFT amd RTGS are available even on holidays although with different rules and regulations.

Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) is available throughout the year including on Sundays and bank holidays. However, the timings and transaction limits for IMPS may vary from bank to bank.

National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT) services are not possible on holidays, as declared by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In case of any transactions made on such days, the amount is debited on the same day but credited to the beneficiary's account on the next working day.

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Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

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The RBI on Tuesday began its rate-setting huddle amid widespread expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das would slash benchmark interest rate to revive the sagging economy.

The Governor has already hinted that the benign inflation provides room for further monetary policy easing while space for fiscal space is limited.

The government has already announced a series of measures including steepest cut in corporate tax, rollback of enhanced surcharge on Foreign Portfolio Investors, among others to jump-start growth which hit a six-year low of 5 per cent during the first quarter of the current fiscal.

The six-member MPC is scheduled to announce the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy for 2019-20 on Friday, October 4, after a three-day meeting. There is no meeting of the panel due to national holiday on October 2, which marks birth anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi.

The central bank has already slashed the repo rate four times consecutively this year amounting to 110 basis points in aggregate.

At its last meeting in August, the MPC reduced the benchmark lending rate by an unusual 35 basis points to 5.40 per cent.

The upcoming MPC meeting comes in the backdrop of the RBI's mandate to banks to link their loan products to an external benchmark, like repo rate, for faster transmission of reduction in policy rates to borrowers, from October 1.

Ahead of the meeting, the Das-headed Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC) sub-committee took stock of the prevailing macroeconomic situation.

Earlier, the RBI Governor had said the government has little fiscal space, giving hopes that the central bank may provide more monetary stimulus to prop up the economy.

The government's fiscal space has been squeezed on account of cut in rates of corporate tax as well as lowering of GST rate on various goods. Revenue collection too has been below the Budget estimates.

Experts opine that another rate cut is on the cards as the government's hands are tied and the onus of taking initiatives now rests with the central bank.

Shanti Ekambaram, President, Consumer Banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank, said with inflation still within the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent, the MPC has the headroom to cut the repo rate further.

"However, the recent volatility in crude oil prices and the fiscal measures announced by the government will have an impact on inflation in the medium term and the fiscal deficit. Hence, we expect the MPC to be more measured in its response with a rate cut of 20-25 basis points in the October policy," she said.

According to NAREDCO president Niranjan Hiranandani, there is expectation of a further 50 basis points repo rate cut in the backdrop of muted inflation which stands lower than the expected 3.2 per cent.

The further reduction of repo rate will not only bring down the lending rates but also incentivise investment and boost consumption, he said.

While economic activities are showing sings of sluggishness, the policy makers are drawing solace from the fact that retail inflation remains in the comfort zone of the central bank.

Retail inflation inched up to 3.21 per cent in August but remained within the RBI's comfort zone. The RBI has been mandated by the government to ensure that inflation remains below 4 per cent, with deviation of 2 per cent on either side.

Experts and industry feel low inflation provides enough headroom for the RBI to further lower the policy rate, especially when festive season has just started. People make huge purchases during Navratras and Diwali.

With liquidity concerns in the NBFC sector almost taken care of, the real estate sector too is hopeful that the RBI will go in for the much needed rate cut to boost demand for affordable housing.

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The dollar rose to within touching distance of a new two-year high in early trading on Tuesday, surging against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key cash rate to an all-time low of 0.75%.

The dollar rose almost a cent against the Aussie after the RBA’s move, which came after the economy grew at its slowest rate in a decade in the second quarter, another spillover from the U.S.-China trade war that has damped Chinese demand for Australian commodities. It also hit a new 10-year high against the kiwi.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six developed currencies, rose to as high as 99.21, close to the two-year high of 99.33 that it hit last month. That was when it hit a 10-year high against the Aussie – a level that looks set to be tested soon.

“Further price movements may depend on Governor (Philip) Lowe's remarks at a dinner in Melbourne later today, in which he may choose to finesse expectations for future rate movements or provide more clarity on the focus on consumer spending, as opposed to the recent focus on the labour market,” Robert Carnell, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ING, said in a note to clients.

The dollar also rose against the yen after a worse than expected Tankan survey, while it inched higher against the euro and sterling as crunch time approached in the Brexit drama. The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will send his detailed plans for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland to the EU on Tuesday after his speech to the Conservative Party’s annual conference.

According to the Irish state broadcaster RTE, the plans involve a string of customs clearance centers set a few miles back from the border. That effectively creates a hard border in all but name, and thus effectively breach the Good Friday Agreement that the U.K. and EU have both promised to respect.

By 3:30 AM ET, the euro was at $1.0890, up 10 ticks from a new two-year low that it hit at the start of trading. The pound was back below $1.2300, while both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona also came under pressure after sharp drops in their national purchasing managers indexes indicated contraction in both countries’ manufacturing sectors.

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Ambani further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully fundedReliance Infrastructure (RInfra) which is sitting on a debt of Rs 6,000 crore, is on track to reduce leverage even further as it focuses to be an asset-and capital-light entity, the company said on Monday.

Addressing the shareholders at the AGM, chairman Anil Ambani also said the group's defence businesses will also follow an asset- and capital-light model.

"Our intent is to reduce the debt further. At present we are have around Rs 6,000 crore of debt but with a large networth," the RInfra chairman said, adding the will focus on the domestic market and take up more complex infrastructure and transportation projects.

"We hope to become one of the top five defence companies among the private players in the country, serving the needs of self-reliance and technological advancement and becoming a global supplier. Our defence business in partnership with global leaders will ensure optimum utilisation," he said.

He further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully funded.

"Going forward, both the growth engines of E&C and defence businesses will remain asset and capital light without the need for any further large capital infusion," he said.

On the defence opportunity, he further said the defence budget of Rs 3 trillion is a great opportunity for domestic players. "Of the Rs 3 lakh crore budget, Rs 1 trillion is for purchase of new weapons platforms and military hardware. This is a great opportunity for us to participate." The company has its presence in the defence business through two of its joint ventures with French firms Dassault Aviation and Thales.

"Both these joint ventures are operational and the factories are located in Mihan in Nagpur. Both are exporting high technology and high-value products to global markets in both civil as well as defence and aerospace area," he said.

Sounding bullish on the infrastructure space, given an outlay of Rs 100 trillion over the next five years, he said the country's infrastructure needs are very vast.

The government has announced Rs 100 lakh crore investment in infrastructure over the next five years and RInfra will participate in these large scale opportunities and projects which are complex, he said.

The company has bagged a few large orders including the Rs 7,000 crore Versova-Bandra Sealink project and a few metro projects in the megapolis.

On the Delhi Metro arbitration award which is around Rs 5,000 crore, he said, the company had already won the case five years ago and is still waiting to receive the amount.

The transaction of the proposed sale of Delhi-Agra toll roadway, which is expected to fetch RInfra Rs 3,600 crore, is likely to be closed in the next few weeks, he said.

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The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) on Tuesday reported a 24.4 per cent decline in sales at 1,22,640 units in September.

The company had sold 1,62,290 units in September last year, MSI said in a statement.

Domestic sales declined by 26.7 per cent at 1,12,500 units last month as against 1,53,550 units in September 2018, it added.

Sales of mini cars comprising Alto and WagonR stood at 20,085 units as compared to 34,971 units in the same month last year, down 42.6 per cent.

Sales of compact segment, including models such as Swift, Celerio, Ignis, Baleno and Dzire, fell 22.7 per cent at 57,179 units as against 74,011 cars in September last year.

Mid-sized sedan Ciaz sold 1,715 units as compared to 6,246 units earlier.

Similarly, sales of utility vehicles, including Vitara Brezza, S-Cross and Ertiga, declined marginally at 21,526 units as compared to 21,639 in the year-ago month, MSI said.

Exports in September were down by 17.8 per cent at 7,188 units as against 8,740 units in the corresponding month last year, the company said.