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Indian equity markets commenced the week on a sluggish note as the benchmarks showcased an unenthusiastic performance on Monday and settled with moderate cuts of over quarter percent. Marketmen turned cautious over the Centre's future reform policies in view of appointment of Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Minister of the country's most populous state. The MP from Gorakhpur, who lacks administrative experience, was unanimously elected the BJP legislature party leader at a meeting of the newly elected MLAs, in a move that took many by surprise. Sentiments remained subdued with a report that the all India Consumer Sentiments Index, measured by the BSE and CMIE, has hit a one-year low at 92.25 compared to 99.65 a year ago. This comes even as the wholesale price index based inflation jumped up to a 39-month high of 6.55%. However, losses remained capped with the report that the Cabinet approved four bills to implement a planned Goods and Services Tax (GST) bills, paving the way for Prime Minister NarendraModi to implement the landmark tax reform from July. The four bills are likely to be taken up by Parliament this week and a separate state GST bill in state assemblies later. Some support also came with the report that the implementation of GST is likely to be fiscally neutral and its impact on inflation is expected to be less than 20 basis points. Further, India has begun the process of dismantling some of the last remaining controls in the foreign direct investment (FDI) framework. The department of economic affairs (DEA) has floated a draft Cabinet note for inter-ministerial consultation to scrap the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), in line with a plan announced by finance minister ArunJaitley in his February 1 budget.

The benchmark got off to a sedate opening tracking the dismal leads prevailing in Asian markets following Wall Street's declines and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism. Thereafter, the indices traded in tight range below neutral line with moderate losses for most part of the session. Finally, the NSE Nifty, took a cut of over quarter percent to settle below the crucial 9,150 support level, while BSE Sensex slipped by over hundred points and closed above the psychological 29,500 mark.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Monday

Asian equity markets ended mixed on Monday following Wall Street's decline and the G20's decision to drop a pledge to avoid trade protectionism, while the Federal Reserve's less hawkish-thanexpected comments continued to weigh on the dollar. Chinese stocks bucked the weak trend to close higher, as gains among energy stocks offset declines in the realty sector. China's property market picked pace in February despite the government announcing a raft of measures to temper speculative demand, data showed on Saturday. Japanese markets were closed for the Vernal Equinox holiday.

US markets closed mostly lower on Monday

The US markets closed mostly lower on Monday, as investors were reluctant to make big bets without major economic or corporate news. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates twice more this year after a policy tightening last week and it could be more or less aggressive depending on inflation and fiscal policies from the Trump administration. The public comments from Evans were among the first since the US central bank lifted its policy rate a notch last week, as expected. It also forecast roughly two more moves in 2017 in a nod to low unemployment and some inflation pressures. Evans, who is a voter on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year and supported last week’s move, also echoed a comment from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested the central bank could try to push inflation, now at 1.7 percent, above a 2-percent target. Evans added that while that level of growth could be reached in any given year, he said it was hard to imagine given the economy is already doing well, the labor market is very strong, and sectors like automobile sales are at all-time highs. There is room to get inflation up to 2 percent and in fact going beyond 2 percent a little bit to make sure we get there, and that it’s a symmetric inflation objective.

On the economy front, the Chicago Fed national activity index rose more-than-expected last month. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said that Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.34, from -0.02 in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from -0.05.

MARKET SYNOPSIS

* Yesterday, NSE-NIFTY witnessed sharp decline in the initial trade and later spent entire session oscillating in narrow range. Finally after registering high of 9,168 and low of 9,116 levels closed the day at 9,127 mark with loss of 33 points.

* NSE Cash segment has reported turnover of Rs22,650crore as compared to Rs31,890 crore earlier.Overall market breadth turned negative, where 787 stocks advanced against 860 declined stocks.

* Mixed trend was observed across all the sectoral indices during the day, where none of the sectoral indices reported gain of more than 0.5%. However, IT index emerged as a top loser with the decrease of 1.1%. 

NSE-NIFTY OUTLOOK

NSE-NIFTY slipped to three day low as index failed to continue prior daily up-trend. As mentioned earlier, our technical view will remain positive on NIFTY, but some decline or sideways movement cannot be ruled out before index resumes the uptrend and records fresh high, as (i) negative market breadth, (ii) overbought indicators and (iii) lack of positive trigger in market are signaling the same. On the lower side, NIFTY will find immediate support around break-out line (i.e. placed around 9,120 level) and in case of further fall, psychological mark-9,000 will continue to work as key support level. On the higher side, index major resistance observed around 9,200 and then at 9,500 levels.

As for the day, support is placed at around 9,050 and then at 9,000 levels, while resistance is observed at 9,170 and then around at 9,220 levels.

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Events to watch this week

• Federal funds rate target raised to 0.75%–1.00%

• BOJ and BOE leave rates unchanged

• China snugs monetary policy

• UK parliament passes Brexit bill

• Dutch populists fare worse than expected

The Week ahead:

• The United Kingdom reports inflation data on Tuesday, 21 March

• The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, 21 March

• The US reports existing home sales data on Wednesday, 22 March

• Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks on Thursday, 23 March

• Global flash purchasing managers' indices are released on Friday, 24 March

For the week,Global equities rose this week after the US Federal Reserve indicated it will raise rates gradually and the populist Freedom Party fared worse than expected in Dutch elections. The US 10-year note yields fell to 2.51% from 2.58% a week ago despite this week’s hike in interest rates from the Fed. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were little changed, holding below $50 per barrel on continued high inventories. Global Brent was steady at $52. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), stayed about the same, at $11.20.

NIFTY- 9,160.05
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,197barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,519 gram
Rs/$-Rs 65.48

MARKET ROUND UP 
Domestic stock markets registered strong gains in the truncated week ended Friday, 17 March 2017, on the back of thumping victory for the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, surged 702.76 points or 2.42% to settle at 29,648.99. The Nifty 50 index jumped 225.50 points or 2.52% to settle at 9,160.05. The market was closed on Monday, 13 March 2017 for holi.

The Sensex settled well above the psychological 29,000 level while the Nifty breached the crucial 9,000 mark and settled at a record closing.The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 3.94%. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 3%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The ruling party at the centre, the BJP, had put up a decent show in remaining three states polls viz. Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa while it succumbed to Congress party in Punjab.
The election results could provide a much needed boost to BJP to accelerate the pace of reforms, including the rollout of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST), slated to be implemented from 1 July 2017.

Key benchmark indices closed with small gains on the final trading session of the week on Friday, 17 March 2017. The Sensex rose 63.14 points or 0.21% to settle at 29,648.99, its highest closing level since 29 January 2015. 

Macro Economic Front: 
On the Economic Front,the all-India general CPI inflation increased to 3.65% in February 2017, compared with 3.17% in January 2017. The data was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.
Another data showed that India's exports rose 17.48% at $24.49 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. Imports rose 21.76% to $33.38 billion in February 2017 over February 2016. The data was announced after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Major Action &Announcement:
State Bank of India (SBI) rose 0.75%. The bank said that its Central Board at a meeting held on 15 March 2017 accorded its approval for raising of equity capital uptoRs 15000 crore during the year ending 31 March 2017 (FY 2017) through various modes as may be decided at the opportune time. The announcement was made after market hours on Wednesday, 15 March 2017.

Axis Bank advanced 0.28%. The bank said that it has reviewed and decided to keep the marginal cost based lending rates (MCLRs) of the bank unchanged across the tenors, effective from 18 March 2017. The one yea MCLR stands unchanged at 8.25%. The announcement was made after market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017. 

TCS declined 0.59%. The company announced that its customer, Bank Yahav, is successfully operational with the TCS BaNCS Universal Banking platform, in a first of its kind for the Israeli market. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. 

Wipro rose 3.5%. The company announced the launch of the Wipro HOLMES Cloud BOT - a continuously learning digital consultant, that leverages Wipro's BoundaryLess Data Center solution. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.

L&T advanced 3.94%. The company said that L&T Realty has executed share purchase deal for selling its entire stake of 51% in L&T South City Projects to Pragnya Group for a consideration of Rs 190 crore. The announcement was made after market hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017.L&T announced during market hours on Thursday, 16 March 2017 that L&T Electrical & Automation FZE won a major order worth Rs 500 crore from Qatar Rail Company (QRAIL) for Phase I of Doha Metro.

Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) was up 0.49%. The company said that its board of directors accorded approval for various investment proposals aggregating to Rs 1197.10 crore. The announcement was made on Saturday, 11 March 2017. 

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) rose 3.39%. The company said that US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) will lift the import alert imposed on the company's Mohali facility. The announcement was made during trading hours on Tuesday, 14 March 2017. The Mohali facility was inherited by Sun Pharma as part of its acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories in 2015. 

Global Front: 
In Overseas Markets,US Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected without accelerating its timeline for future tightening. The Fed raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point and continued to project two more increases this year. Fed said that it would raise the benchmark federal-funds rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%.
The People's Bank of China raised the interest rates it charges commercial banks in the money market on the seven-day, 14-day and 28-day loans--also known as reverse repurchase agreements or repos--each by 0.1 percentage point. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left policy unchanged on Thursday, 16 March 2017, sticking with its expansionary measures even though other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are shifting away from years of unusually aggressive stimulus. 

Global Economic News:

Fed hikes rates, expects continued gradual rise 
The US Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee pushed policy rates up a further quarter of a percent at its 15 March meeting and indicated that it expects to hike rates twice more this year. Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed’s economic forecasts have not changed since the last rate hike in December and that the pace of future rate hikes would be gradual. Yellen also said the Fed has confidence that the economic recovery is robust and is resistant to shocks. Despite the Fed hiking rates at two of its last three meetings, financial conditions are easier today than they were on the day of the Fed’s December hike: Equity prices are higher, the 10-year US Treasury note yield is lower, the dollar is weaker and corporate bond spreads are narrower.

BOJ and BOE stand pat; China raises short-term rates
While the Bank of Japan is not in a position to hike rates anytime soon, the Bank of England might be closer to a hike than markets expected. One member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kristin Forbes, voted to hike rates by 0.25% on Thursday, and several other members indicated they would consider voting to hike rates if activity or inflation picks up further. With Brexit looming, the BOE finds itself in a policy bind given the potential for economic and market volatility because the process is unfolding at a time when inflation pressures appear to be rebounding. In the wake of the Fed’s hike, the People’s Bank of China raised its reverse repo rate 10 basis points in an effort to keep the USD/CNY exchange rate stable and limit capital outflows. Thursday’s hike was the second this year. However, China’s official monetary policy benchmark deposit rate remains unchanged. 

UK parliament passes Brexit bill
After several weeks of legislative wrangling, the UK parliament this week passed the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill and the queen has given Royal Assent, clearing the way for the government to begin negotiations to leave the EU. The two-year process is expected to be triggered by the end of this month.
G20 finance ministers meet
US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to meet with his G20 counterparts for the first time this weekend in Germany. Trade and currency issues will no doubt be at the top of the agenda. Mnuchin met with German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Thursday, with Mnuchin vowing to avoid trade wars while seeking to secure reciprocal trading arrangements.

GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS

Dutch populist party underperforms expectations
Support for Geert Wilder’s Freedom Party faded in the final days of the Dutch general election campaign with his party finishing a distant second to the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte. Wilders had led in the polls for several months, but his party secured just 20 seats in the Dutch parliament versus 33 for Rutte’s party. Rutte will now need to forge a coalition with several other parties, a process which is expected to be lengthy, as Rutte has ruled out including the Freedom Party in any coalition. In addition to eyeing the performance of populist factions, observers monitoring the electoral performance of populist factions report increasing political fragmentation in Europe. For example, the Netherlands now has 13 parties claiming seats in parliament, with the leading party garnering only 21% of the vote.

NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):

NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):

MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:

Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (20 Mar)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 
Tuesday (21 Mar)
Week Bill Auction 
Wednesday (22 Mar)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday (23 Mar)
New Home Sales & Jobless Claims 
Friday (24 Mar)
PMI Composite Flash

Fundamental Pick of the week:
Buy Lupin Ltd For Target Rs.1,520.00
The stock has made a strong bottom in the last few weeks at sub 1400 with strong volumes and positive price action in the last few days.

The key technical indicators and RSI has also reversed turning upwards and as the stock is in poised for a breakout from current levels.The stock has closed near its short term averages confirming the uptrend and the recent swing high of 1550 could be tested in the next few weeks.
Thus, for trade, long position can be initiated for target of Rs 1520 with a stop loss of Rs 1415.

Indian Market Outlook:
Market on March 17, 2017 
The Nifty opened gap-up above 9200 but could not build upon the early gains. The Index declined throughout the day and closed just above the daily upper Bollinger Band. Nevertheless, this is a minor correction and the larger trend still remains positive. In terms of the wave structure, the rally is getting sub-divided into lower degree waves and has the potential to sustain. The weekly close confirms the bullish inside bar breakout on the weekly chart, which indicates that the mediumterm trend is in favor of the bulls. Short-term and medium-term targets on the upside are 9230 and 9500, respectively. On the flip side, 9060-9000 will act as a key support area from a short-term perspective.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

Other technical observations 
On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- day moving average (DMA) and the 40-DEMA, ie 8947 and 8806 respectively. The momentum indicator is in a bullish mode on the daily chart.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 20- hour moving average (HMA) and the 40-HEMA, ie 9134 and 9081 respectively. The hourly momentum indicator is in a bearish mode. 

Bank Nifty View
Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. High madewas 21336 and low made was 21127 so bulls broke 21300 with gap up but bears became active and pushed the bank nifty below 21300, but bulls also did not let 21000 break so the range trade continues. Weekly close above 21000 is a very bullish sign as we have the Highest Weekly close. Long above 21300 for a move towards 21450/21500.Bearish below 21000 for a move towards 20800/20600. 

Conclusion:

The Indian equity markets zoomed after BJP’s overwhelming victory in Uttar Pradesh. The week that went by was a historic one for Nifty and Sensex in terms of new achievements. Nifty breached its all time high and crossed 9200, however, the 9200 mark acted as resistance for the benchmark index. Sensex too soared 616 points in a day on Thursday and closed at the peak level at 29,586. Foreign investors have renewed confidence after the UP elections results boosted hope of further reforms. On the other hand, as widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time in 3-months. Interestingly, Nifty sectoral indices set new records as the market negated the US Fed rate hike and continued with the upward momentum.

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Markets to make a positive start reacting to assembly results and IIP data

The Indian markets before going for a long weekend made a flat closing with a positive bias. Today, the start is likely to be in green and the traders will be rejoicing the assembly election outcome, which was mostly on the expected lines. A strong election win in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh has raised the probability of the BJP winning the 2019 general elections as well, putting sense of stability among investors. Traders are also likely to get support from the economy front, where the industrial production bounced back into expansion in January, kicking off the financial year’s last quarter on a positive note. The index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in January from a year ago, the second fastest monthly growth this financial year. However, there will be some cautiousness too, with the RBI warning of a possible spike in inflation and stressing the need to make digital payments “safe and secure”, even as it felt that the adverse and transient impact on the economy has “by and large” dissipated already. Traders will be eyeing the inflation data to be released later in the day for further cues. The banking stocks will keep buzzing, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has discussed options on resolution of bad loans with RBI Governor Urjit Patel and other top officials in finance ministry but creation of a 'bad bank' to hold such loans seemed not on top of alternatives.

Indian benchmarks end marginally higher ahead of assembly elections results

Indian benchmark indices give up most of their early gains to close marginally higher on Friday, amid profit taking in selective frontline stocks. Today’s session largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band ahead of Assembly poll results of five states on Saturday. Sentiments got some support after various exit polls suggested the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may comfortably cross the majority mark of 202 in the 403-seat UP Assembly, or come close to it. As for other states, most exit polls said the BJP was likely to retain power in Goa and wrest power from the Congress in Uttarakhand. Further, investors got some comfort with the report that the government's revenue collection from indirect tax during April-February grew by an impressive 22.2%, while that of direct tax rose by 10.7%. Total direct and indirect tax collections at February end stood at Rs 13.89 lakh crore, 81.5% of the target of Rs 16.99 lakh crore, as per the revised estimate for 2016-17. 

However, gains remained capped with CRISIL’s report that a revival in private sector investment cycle is likely to be deferred to fiscal 2019 as there is ample headroom in capacity utilization, stretched balance sheets and just a moderate pick-up in demand. In the next fiscal year ending March 2018, CRISIL predicts only a mild recovery due to an absence of fiscal and monetary stimuli and unsupportive global environment. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks gained traction on the report that the government is set to go for 5G spectrum auction this year -making an early move to initiate rollout of latest communications technologies. The government will also go for a fresh auction in 700 MHz band, which drew a blank last year as companies complained of high reserve price. Further, some auto stocks surged after the Vehicle sales across categories registered a marginal increase at 17,19,699 units in February 2017 from 17,03,736 in the same month last year. Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose by 9.01% y-o-y to 255,359 units in February, while Sales of commercial vehicles moved up 7.34% to 66,939 units in February. On the other hand, shares of gold loan companies like Manappuram Finance edged lower after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said NBFCs cannot lend more than Rs 20,000 in cash against gold. Earlier, NBFCs were allowed to disburse high value loans of Rs 1 lakh and above against gold only through cheque.

Asian markets made a mixed closing on Thursday

The US markets closed mostly higher on Monday, as investors refrained from making sizable bets ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting that is widely expected to deliver an interest-rate increase. With no economic data, investors were instead focusing on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that kicks off Tuesday. Investors will be eager to glean signals about the timing and pace of future rate increases from the FOMC’s policy statement. The market is pricing in about three rate increases of a quarter of a percentage point each for 2017. The market sees an 88.6% probability that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will vote for an interest-rate Wednesday, according to data from the CME Group. Expectations for a rate increase were cemented after solid February nonfarm-payroll data on Friday. According to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released showed that a measure of US inflation expectations mostly flattened in February after having risen in the previous two months. The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the US central bank, showed that year-ahead inflation expectations were flat at 3 percent last month. The three-year ahead reading edged up to 3 percent, from 2.9 percent in January.

The Nasdaq was up 14.05 points or 0.24 percent to 5,875.78, S&P 500 gained 0.87 points or 0.04 percent to 2,373.47, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 21.5 points or 0.10 percent to 20,881.48.

January IIP surges to 2.7% against -0.4% in December

In a positive surprise, industrial output rose to 2.7% in January as compared to -0.4% in December. The cumulative growth for the period April-January 2016-17 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 0.6 percent.

Govt releases the draft rules for security of prepaid payment instruments

In a bid to make electronic payments more secure, the government has released the draft rules for transactions made through prepaid payment instruments (PPIs) like mobile wallets, smart cards and paper vouchers. The draft IT (Security of Prepaid Payment Instruments) Rules 2017, formulated by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) will ensure adequate integrity, security and confidentiality of electronic payments effected through PPIs. Till date, these instruments are not governed by norms or rules, as far as cyber security issues are concerned.

As per the draft rules, the PPIs need to ensure end-to-end encryption of the data exchanged. Besides, the e-PPI issuers should assist customers with regard to secure use of the prepaid payment instruments and should have a privacy policy posted on its website.

They will also have to appoint a chief grievance officer, whose contact details will have to be prominently displayed on the website and procedure by which customers or any other person who suffers as a result of violation of these rules can make complaints to the Grievance Officer.

Furthermore, the PPI issuer will also need to establish a mechanism for monitoring, handling and follow-up of any cyber incidents and breaches. The rules also specify that every wallet issuer should review its security measures at least once a year, and after any major security incident or breach, or before a major change to its infrastructure or procedures. The last date for submittingcomments on the draft is March 20.

Indian govt continue to engage with Trump administration on H1B visa issue

In order to ease the worries of Indian professionals over H1B visa, the government has said that the steps taken by the US were aimed at illegal immigration and added that they would continue to engage with both members of the US administration as well as members of the US Congress on their interests and concerns pertaining to not just H1B visa but other issues as well.

Talking on the discussions held between Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar with his interlocutors in the US last week, External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Gopal Baglay has said that there was a strong recognition as well as respect for Indian skills and contribution of the Indian technological manpower to the US economy. He also said it has been India's view that the presence of skilled Indian professionals is positive for the US economy as well, particularly when the US seeks to build a stronger economy. He pointed out that there are other advantages from the presence of Indian professionals in the US like backward linkages.

Calling the H1B visas a trade and business issue, Baglay further said that their views have been clearly conveyed to the concerned US interlocutors. He also said that the government believes that the plans of the US Administration for the US economy present an opportunity for the two countries to further consolidate their strong economic partnership.