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Odisha registers Rs 1,019 crore OGST collection during August 2022

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The progressive collection of OGST till August 2022 is Rs 6,267.93 crore against Rs 4,836.75 crore in the same period last year, with a growth rate of 29.59 per cent.Odisha Registers 17% Growth In Gross GST Collection In Aug - Gross, Odisha,  Registers - Odisha registers 17% growth in gross GST collection in Aug

Odisha has registered OGST collection of Rs 1,019.81 crore during August 2022 against Rs 956.47 crore in the same period previous year, with a growth of 6.62 per cent, an official said.

The progressive collection of OGST till August 2022 is Rs 6,267.93 crore against Rs 4,836.75 crore in the same period last year, with a growth rate of 29.59 per cent.

The gross collection of GST during August, 2022 is Rs 3,883.90 crore as against Rs 3,316.55 crore during August, 2021 with a growth of 17.11 per cent. The progressive collection of Gross GST till August, 2022 is Rs 20,366.77 crore against Rs 16,977.92 crore with a growth rate of 19.96 per cent, he said.

Similarly, the total collection of VAT (petrol and liquor) is Rs 933.62 crore during August, 2022 as against Rs 884.22 crore during August 2021 with growth rate of 5.59 per cent.

Of the total VAT, the collection from petroleum products is Rs 750.11 crore during August, 2022 against Rs 727.73 crore collected during August 2021 with growth of 3.08 per cent.

Similarly, the collection from liquor is Rs 183.51 crore during August 2022 against Rs 156.49 crore collected during August 2021 with a growth rate of 17.27 per cent.

The state has also registered a growth of 18.37 per cent in profession tax with a collection of Rs 21.72 crore. during August 2022 against collection of Rs 18.35 crore during August 2021.

During the current fiscal (up to August), 20,269 new tax payers have been brought under the GST fold, the official said, adding that the total e-waybill generated during August 2022 was 15.81 lakh against 14.35 lakh during August 2021 witnessing a growth of 10.17 per cent.

Green bond framework almost ready, govt looking for "very attractive" discount: FinMin source

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The Centre has been assisted by the World Bank in framing the guidelines for the sovereign green bonds, which were announced by the finance minister in her FY23 budget speech.Green bond framework almost ready, govt looking for "very attractive"  discount: FinMin source | Flipboard

The framework for India's proposed sovereign green bond is almost ready and the instrument will be issued in the second half of the current financial year, a senior finance ministry official said.

"We have spoken to the World Bank. They are providing us with some guidance. We are getting the framework vetted by a second party that is completely independent," the official told Moneycontrol on condition of anonymity.

"It should be part of the H2 borrowing calendar," the official added.

The Centre will announce its borrowing schedule for the second half of FY23 at the end of September.

Announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her FY23 budget speech in February, the green bonds will be part of this year's record gross borrowing budget estimate of Rs 14.95 lakh crore.

No hike in market borrowing

With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) switching certain government securities just a couple of days before the presentation of the budget and the Centre pegging its first-half borrowing at Rs 8.45 lakh crore, the second-half borrowing amount works out to be Rs 5.86 lakh crore.

The finance ministry official quoted above said there was no reason why the Centre would increase its stated borrowing programme in October 2022-March 2023.

"Unless there are new expenditures which come up between now and the end of FY23, we will meet the fiscal deficit target," the official added.

The central government has set itself a fiscal deficit target of Rs 16.61 lakh crore, or 6.4 percent of GDP, for FY23. Data released on August 31 showed the government's finances to be in good shape in April-July, with the fiscal deficit at only a fifth of the full-year target at the end of the first third of the year. Comfort on the receipts front has also allowed the Centre to frontload the transfer of funds to states.

Green bond rates

The official was insistent the government wanted a "very fine rate" on the green bonds when they are finally issued.

"A discount of 2 basis points, 5 basis points, or 10 basis points is not enough. We are already borrowing from the market. And putting an entirely new framework for green bonds into place takes effort. So it should be worth the effort. We would like to see a very, very attractive discount (on prevailing government bond yields)."

Further, the sale of green bonds in subsequent years would depend on the interest rate demanded at the maiden issue.

"The rates should give us some value for the effort we put in. The discount should incentivise me to issue more of these bonds," the official argued.

When asked if the framework for the green bonds provided any incentives to investors so that they would ask for lower interest rates, the official said there was not going to be any such feature as the demand for these bonds had come from the market.

"The government is borrowing and is committed to provide resources to these green projects in any case," the person said, adding that the list of these projects is ready.

“We just have to figure out which of them would lead to the quickest absorption of money because we are not inclined to keep the funds with us."

A final call is also to be made on whether the government will disclose the full list of projects which will be financed through the proceeds of these green bond issuances.

"I think that should be necessary. If we tell the investors where the money is going, they will be more convinced," the source added.

1-year median MCLR rise moderates in August, up 40 bps since June

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Foreign banks have raised it the most, median rate up 90 bps; just 20-bp rise for private banksBank

The rise in one-year median marginal cost of fund-based lending rate (MCLR) of commercial banks moderated to 10 basis points (bps) in August from a hike of 15 bps in July. It has risen 40 bps since June.

This comes on the back of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising the repo rate by 140 bps to 5.4 per cent in the current tightening cycle.

Anil Gupta, co-group head, financial sector ratings at ICRA, said banks will be calibrated in revising the MCLR, as they have to be competitive vis a vis other sources of borrowings, i.e. bonds and external commercial borrowings. Also, they have leeway in passing on cost of funds to borrowers.

Bankers, too, indicated that the MCLR would continue to rise but not to the extent of the increase in the policy rate. Besides, much of the MCLR-linked lending is to corporate houses, which have access to other sources of funding, the bankers pointed out, explaining the reason for the moderation in the  in August.

Thus far in financial year 2022-23 (FY23), the one-year median MCLR for commercial banks has risen by 40 bps from 7.25 per cent in April to 7.65 per cent in August, according to data from the RBI.

The current  are still lower than the rates that prevailed in the previous monetary tightening cycle of 2018, when they had moved from 8.3 per cent in February 2018 to 8.8 per cent in January 2019.

Also readICICI Bank, Bandhan Bank, Karnataka Bank increase MCLR across tenors

This was done in anticipation of rate hikes by the RBI, which had increased the policy repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25 per cent in June 2018, then again by 25 bps to 6.5 per cent in August 2018.

The current increase in the MCLR is a reflection of banks passing on the rise in cost of funds to borrowers, especially after the RBI raised the repo rate by 40 bps in May in an off-cycle policy review.

Different pace

Among the banking groups,  raised the one-year MCLR by 90 bps in the five-month period from 6.10 per cent in April to 7 per cent in August.

The pace was moderate for public sector banks, with median one-year MCLR rising by 40 bps to 7.65 per cent in August, from 7.25 per cent in April. For private sector banks, the median rise was just 20 bps in the period at 7.53 per cent in August.

While lending rates rose by 25 bps in the April-July period, the domestic term deposit rates rose only 19 bps from 5.03 per cent in April to 5.22 per cent in July. Since deposit rates rise with a lag, banks are still in a position to absorb some increase in the cost of funds.

In the 2018 cycle, the weighted average domestic term deposit rates grew from 6.54 per cent in January 2018 to 6.91 per cent in January 2019.

Prakash Agarwal, director and head – financial institutions, India Ratings, said term deposit rates will continue to rise, but banks will be circumspect in raising them. Those with weaker deposit franchise and lower share of Current Account and Savings Account (CASA) may have to offer higher rates to attract funds.

In the current cycle,  have marched ahead of their public and private sector rivals in terms of raising interest rates. Their weighted average domestic term deposit rates rose by 67 bps from 3.42 per cent in April to 4.09 per cent in July. State-owned banks hiked their term deposit rates by 16 bps to 5.27 per cent, and private lenders by 17 bps to 5.3 per cent, the RBI data showed.

MCLR trajectory of banks in 2022 (in %)

MonthsPublic sectorPrivate sectorForeign banksAll banks
January7.258.156.057.25
February7.258.226.057.2
March7.258.356.177.25
April7.258.336.17.25
May7.358.356.057.25
June7.438.356.67.4
July7.558.56.917.55
August7.658.5377.65
Source – RBI

Indian Bank hikes MCLR by 0.10% across tenors from September 3

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State-owned Indian Bank has revised the marginal cost of funds-based lending rates (MCLR) by 0.10 per cent across tenors from Saturday, which will make most of the consumer loans costlierIndian Bank

State-owned  has revised the marginal cost of funds-based lending rates (MCLR) by 0.10 per cent across tenors from Saturday, which will make most of the consumer loans costlier.

It has also revised the lending rates benchmarked on treasury bills.

The Asset Liability Management Committee (ALCO) of the bank has reviewed the Benchmark Lending Rates and decided on an upward revision in MCLR and TBLR across various tenors, the lender said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.

The benchmark one-year MCLR will be 7.75 per cent from September 3 against the existing rate of 7.65 per cent.

The one-year rate is used to fix most consumer loans such as auto, personal and home loans.

The overnight to six months tenor MCLRs are raised by 0.10 per cent each in the range of 6.95 to 7.60 per cent.

Besides, the lender also revised the treasury bills benchmark lending rate (TBLR) in the range of 5.55 per cent to 6.20 per cent for various tenors.

Real Estate | Phasing of projects can lead to home buyers being short-changed

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A recent notification in Haryana, proposing that single licence projects be allowed to be split into phases has consumers up in arms Real Estate | Phasing of projects can lead to home buyers being short- changed

Can a project that was granted a single licence be split into phases without being unfair to existing buyers? Can completed phases be delinked from newer ones, which can then be redesigned without the approval of existing allottees?

These issues were first discussed at the Urban Development Conclave in February, where KK Khandelwal, Chairman, Gurugram Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA), raised the issue of the difficulty in getting the consent of two-thirds of the allottees for any changes in the design of unbuilt phases. Three RERA chairmen — from Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Rajasthan — indicated that the pro

Why Redesign?

The bigger issue is why does a project have to be redesigned after RERA registration? The first reason is that with new policies such as transit oriented development (ToD), extra floor area ratio (FAR) is offered to developers building along these corridors. Also, there is extra built-up area available by way of transfer of development rights (TDR), which a developer can utilise on this project, if the supporting infrastructure is available. A third reason why designs need to be changed is because of rapid changes in consumer preferences, necessitating changes to make the project more saleable in the present scenario.

Going by past experience, these design changes have been detrimental to those already residing in the vicinity. The prime example is that of the Supertech twin towers that were demolished on August 28 by a Supreme Court order because they violated the minimum setback principles from existing towers, thus spoiling their environment, and ambience.

Two-Third Consent

In Haryana, a new proposed policy was uploaded, without much fanfare, by the Department of Town and Country Planning (DTCP) for suggestions from consumers on the draft notification issued on July 18. A policy for allowing phasing in licensed colonies and seeking consent from two-third of the allottees in case of revision in the layout plan/building plan for co-ordinated functioning of statutory authorities has in-principle been approved by the state government. The co-ordination was under the Haryana Development and Regulation of Urban Areas Act 1975; the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act 2016, and the Haryana Apartment Ownership Act 1983. It rests upon a January 25, 2021, notification by the DTCP.

The constitutional validity of this policy has been challenged in the Punjab and Haryana High Court.

The proposed policy applies to parts of projects in licensed colonies, which are yet to be registered with the RERA. The first objection by consumer bodies is to the clause, “An undertaking from the coloniser regarding such non-registration of the colony or such part of it shall be considered adequate along with such disclosure.” Consumer bodies say that this is in violation of the protection they receive under Section 14 of the RERA Act which mandates approval by two-thirds of existing allottees before any revision in the plan can be allowed. The policy seeks to redefine what amounts to revision of plans and which revision will require previous written consent of two-thirds of the allottees.

Short-Changing Buyers

So, what can happen when this proviso is enacted? Without any stipulation on the size or composition of each phase, consumers fear that a few completed towers would be converted into a completed phase, and they may lose their right to protest against injustice. While the entire colony was planned as a whole and complement each other in services, it is quite possible that the developer may place the sewage or garbage treatment facility close to the old, completed phase, and they may never be able to protest as they are part of a completed phase.

Also, if the developer consolidates a few extra acres adjoining the boundaries of the existing layout, they may well take the remaining land from the existing project(s) and turn that into a new phase/project. With greater FAR allowed because of the ToD policy and some TDR purchased from other developers, the new phase can be made premium, and viable.

However, it might infringe on the rights of the existing completed phases in terms of club house or other facilities, making those crowded and less premium. For instance, a Gurugram-based developer used the space for amenities to build another tower at the cost of promised amenities, by arbitrarily revising plans for the low-rise economically weaker section wing to a high-rise tower.

Problem Clause

There are parts of the notification which consumers are interpreting as developer-friendly. For instance, the one-sided developer-led disclosure clause quoted above seems to violate the rights of the consumer (home buyer). A simple disclosure by the coloniser (developer) to the authority, without any clause of intimation to existing consumers seems to reek of collusion. In an ideal world, the safeguard of RERA approval to the final plan seems all right, but with the lack of trust in the market, consumers are still wary.

The clause in the proposed amendment that a phase can be deemed complete with essential services, seems misleading as essential services have not been spelled out. Without that, developers do not have to follow any benchmark in minimum services.

Future projects can be planned in phases with clear announcement of services and facilities in each phase. The marketing then should also be in accordance with that. Consumers of the phase can then complain to RERA if the promised facilities are not provided. However, for legacy projects that have been planned and executed as single entities with common areas being shared across the project, phasing is a tricky business that can lead to consumers being short-changed.

Share Market Closing Note, Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 Sept,2022

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Share Market closing Note

Benchmark indices ended lower with Nifty below 17600 mainly dragged by IT, metal, power and oil & gas stocks.Share Market Today, Sensex, Nifty: Sensex rallies 418 points to settle at  60,260; financials, IT, FMCG stocks rally

At Close, the Sensex was down 770.48 points or 1.29% at 58,766.59, and the Nifty was down 216.50 points or 1.22% at 17,542.80. About 1904 shares have advanced, 1446 shares declined, and 142 shares are unchanged.

Hindalco Industries, Reliance Industries, ONGC, TCS and SBI Life Insurance were among top losers on the Nifty, while gainers were Tata Consumer Products, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors and Hero MotoCorp.

Except realty, capital goods, PSU bank and auto, all other sectoral indices ended lower.

BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 0.5% each.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if holds above 17520 level on closing basis then expect some further recovery in coming sessions and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement can follow. Avoid open positions for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is declining regularly. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 17480 level then expect some further decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17520 level then some upmove can follow in the Nifty. Currently nifty spot is trading at 17485.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 50230.If it manages to trade and sustain above 50260 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 50180 level then some decline can follow in Gold.

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Topic :- Time:1.20 PM

Just In:

Car dispatches up nearly 30% in August.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

Just In:

Jet fuel price slashed in Delhi after govt hikes windfall profit tax.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is declining again however its still rangebound and pull back can be seen soon. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 17550 level then expect some decline in the market and if it manages to trade and sustain above 17580 level then some upmove can follow in the market.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 642.If it manages to trade and sustain above 643.50 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 640.90 level then some decline can follow in it. 

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 642.If it manages to trade and sustain above 643.50 level then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 640.90 level then some decline can follow in it. 

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

After gap down opening nifty recovered a bit however it is still trading in red zone. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17620 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17580 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex trims early loss, down 350 pts; Nifty below 17,650

2. Manufacturing PMI dips slightly to 56.2 in August from 56.4 in July

3. NDTV says stake sale to Adani needs approval from tax authorities

4. Govt hikes windfall profit tax on export of diesel, jet fuel: FinMin

5. India Incs foreign investment declines over 50% to $1.11 bn in July

6. Amid Chinas slowdown, Asian manufacturing hubs see dip in demand

7. Markets log 3rd highest monthly FPI inflows since Covid outbreak in August

8. Ashok Leyland rallies 5% on bagging order for 1,400 school buses in UAE

9. Biocon sheds 4%, hits 52-week low as US FDA issues form 483 for 3 sites

10. Adani stocks outperform indices, Zomato down 57.8% in 2022 so far

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 01 Sept,2022:

Nifty is likely to remain volatile and is expected to follow global cues.

Nifty  spot if manages to trade and sustain above 17800 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 17720 level then some decline can follow in the Nifty. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.


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GST collection rises 28% in August to Rs 1.43 trillion: Finance Ministry

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The GST collection remained above the Rs 1.4-trn mark for the sixth straight month in August and the ensuing festival season will help continue the trend

The panel was expected to submit a report by last month and suggest various steps to raise revenue, including hiking the lowest slab and rationalising the slab

India's tax collection from the sale of goods and services soared 28 per cent to Rs 1.43 trillion in July aided by rising demand, higher rates, and greater compliance.

The  collection remained above the Rs 1.4-trillion mark for the sixth straight month in August and the ensuing festival season will help continue the trend.

Better reporting coupled with economic recovery has have a "positive impact on the  revenues on a consistent basis, the  said in a statement.

The gross  revenue collected in August 2022 is Rs 1.43 trillion of which CGST is Rs 24,710 crore, SGST is Rs 30,951 crore, IGST is Rs 77,782 crore (including Rs 42,067 crore collected on import of goods) and cess is Rs 10,168 crore (including Rs 1,018 crore collected on import of goods), the ministry said.

The revenues for the month of August 2022 are 28 per cent higher than the GST revenues of Rs 1,12,020 crore collected in August 2021.

"The growth in GST revenue till August 2022 over the same period last year is 33 per cent, continuing to display very high buoyancy. This is a clear impact of various measures taken by the Council in the past to ensure better compliance, the Ministry said.

The collection in August is, however, lower than Rs 1.49 trillion collected in July. The mop up was at a record high of Rs 1.67 trillion in April.

KPMG in India Partner Indirect Tax Abhishek Jain said, "The consistent high collections indicate upward economic trajectory despite fluctuating COVID cases and to some extent attributable to inflation and better compliance being ensured by the government."

N A Shah Associates, Partner, Indirect Tax, Parag Mehta said the collection increase is due to better compliance and the removal of various exemptions from July 2022.

"Further, with the festive season setting in, the collections for the next 2-3 months will also show an upward trajectory, Mehta said.

Deloitte India Partner MS Mani said the collections reflect the strength of the underlying economic factors.

"With the onset of the festival season, which is typically a large consumption driver for all businesses, the GST collections in the coming months would also be expected to be robust," Mani added.

Nexdigm, Director Indirect Tax, Sanjay Chhabria said higher collections are signs of recovery of trade & economy post the COVID-19 pandemic and we could continue to witness such higher tax buoyancy during the upcoming festivities in the country.

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said looking ahead, the YoY growth in GST collections is likely to remain well above 20 per cent in September 2022, before tempering down to 12-15 per cent in December quarter, on a normalising base, trending close to the nominal GDP expansion.

"We continue to foresee a considerable upside in the CGST collections relative to the FY2023 BE, more than offsetting the expected loss in excise collections," Nayar said.

Power Sector | When it comes to smart electricity meters, PGCIL must use latest technology

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As India grows, so does its power needs, and astute usage of power is crucial for India’s development. The decision to settle for outdated technology will hamper India’s growth in the years to comeSmart grids: the next step for energy in Latin America

As India executes the world’s largest electricity smart-metering programme, aimed at reducing distribution losses, the industry is looking at new and cost-effective solutions. However, in what can be only seen as bureaucratic lethargy (even worse, disregard), news reports suggest of how State-run Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) has floated a smart-metering tender specifying that it needs to be in (now outdated) 2G and RF mesh tech. This stipulation is shocking for anyone in the know of things and have been following the technological developments in this sector. The PGCIL is showing Luddite traits through such a tender, and if it goes through, the decision has the potential to drag and deny the true speed of India’s power sector reforms.

Unlike the regular electromechanical meter, the state-of-the-art smart meter sends the data to the power distributor faster in real-time, which makes it easier for the supplier to manage the power supply, and, thereby, avoid leakages in the system. Fourth generation telecom technology has made such monitoring possible; and with 5G soon to be rolled out across India, this will improve.

The idea of smart grid, of which a smart meter is a sub-set, is to increase the efficiency of power usage by the introduction of bi-directional flow of information from utilities to consumers, and vice-versa. This can be possible by the introduction of ‘Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)’. The information about electrical consumption of a consumer is recorded in a timely manner, and this data is aggregated and analysed by ‘smart meters’ installed at consumer premises. The analysed data is communicated to utilities using the AMI. The AMI includes the advanced communication system, including home area networks (HAN), neighbourhood area networks (NAN), and wide area networks (WAN).

It is not as if it is only the power distributor’s hands that are strengthened. It is a two-way street. The consumers’ hands too are strengthened with the distributor alerting to wastage at the consumer end, which they can plug instantly — say, for example, a television drawing power though not in use; the same is the case with an air-conditioner that may not be in use, but power is consumed if the power switch of the appliance is not switched off.

Such alerts galvanise somnolent consumers into action, resulting in prevention of guzzling and heightened bills. Consumers can also monitor their consumption on a daily basis and accordingly initiate suitable measures as against the present norm of waking up with a shudder when the bill lands in our letterbox/inboxes. When metering becomes fairer and advanced like higher peak-time rates as in Malaysia, the utility of real time information would be even more — shifting peak loads to leaner times of the day wherever possible to avoid peak time tariffs. A smart meter also enables switching from conventional power to renewable energy (like solar) thanks to the two-way communication which is its centrepiece.

The PGCIL’s weak alibi is that the latest technology is as yet unproven. Really? One doesn’t have to go very far. The Tata Power Delhi Distribution, which supplies electricity in the north and north-west Delhi, last year chose the latest platform and connectivity technology — Narrow Band Internet of Things (NBIoT). This technology can work with 4G and 5G networks.

Surprisingly, the PGCIL has tweaked the technology requirement from the latest to the dated in the tender inviting bids for setting up 10 million smart meters just days before the bid closed on August 30.

The atavistic instinct for hurtling to obsolete technology is a throwback to State-run BSNL remaining a 2G service provider for long when its fleet-footed private sector competitors were progressing from generation to generation. The PGCIL cannot pivot, and smugly counter saying unlike in the telecom sector, in the power sector competing for custom is not yet on.

At any rate, it would be wasteful and cynical to embrace a dated technology, even if it is cheaper only to report sub-optimal results at the end of the day, when enthusiastic adoption of the state-of-the art tech can prevent the downside of such short-sighted courses of action. We are in a fortunate position to have requisite technology that can make a huge difference to the power sector.

As India grows so does its power needs, and astute usage of power is crucial for India’s development. Seen from such a prism, the decision to make good with outdated technology will hamper India’s growth in the years to come. Therefore, it would be foolish to embrace junked technology.

Manufacturing PMI edges down to 56.2 in August, inflation concerns ease

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At 56.2, India's manufacturing PMI for August has come in above 50 for the 14th month in a rowManufacturing PMI edges down to 56.2 in August, inflation concerns ease

India's manufacturing activity improved in August, although S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged down to 56.2 from eight-month high of 56.4 recorded in July.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

This is the 14th consecutive 50-plus print for the manufacturing PMI.

"A sustained improvement in demand conditions boosted new order intakes at Indian manufacturers during August, which in turn pushed output growth to a nine-month high. Production volumes were also supported by a pick-up in exports and upbeat projections for the year-ahead outlook.

Firms were at their most optimistic for six years," S&P Global said.

Surveyed firms also expressed optimisim on the prices front as "recent inflation concerns somewhat faded", as per S&P Global.

State of the economy: Q1 GDP hints at resilience amid rising rates

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Gross domestic product is estimated to rise 15.4% in the three months to June from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

State of the economy: Q1 GDP hints at resilience amid rising rates

India’s economy probably grew at the fastest rate in a year last quarter driven by healthy consumption, but the pace of expansion is seen slowing as policymakers prioritize rising prices over growth.

Gross domestic product is estimated to rise 15.4% in the three months to June from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s the fastest reading since the April-June quarter of 2021 and compares with a 4.09% expansion in the previous three months.

The Statistics Ministry is due to release the data for the first quarter of the fiscal year that started April 1 at 5:30 p.m. India time on Wednesday. Stock and bond markets will be shut on the day for a local holiday.

Resumption of activity in India’s dominant services sector, following the lifting of pandemic curbs, and a record jump in exports added to the momentum. The pace will likely moderate in coming quarters as the central bank raised rates by 140 basis points  this year to bring price gains under its 6% target ceiling.

The resilient growth backdrop means the RBI will retain its focus on containing inflation,” said Rahul Bajoria, an economist with Barclays Bank Plc. “That makes its policy choices relatively clear, in the short term,” he said, projecting another 50 basis points of rate hikes over two meetings in September and December.

The International Monetary Fund sees Asia’s third-largest economy sustaining its world-beating growth tag as the lender estimates a growth of 7.4% this year and 6.1% thereafter. A fast pace of expansion is crucial for India to attract investors and create jobs for its growing population.

Risk Factors

Besides rate hikes, a global slowdown will also weigh on the Indian economy. The US Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising rates until inflation comes under control may hurt Indian exports and thus drive domestic output lower.

The Indian rupee Tuesday dropped to a fresh record low and key stock gauges declined amid a global surge in risk-off sentiment after central bankers delivered a hawkish message at Jackson Hole.

Challenges also remain on the domestic front from rising prices of key staples such as rice and wheat amid factors such as climate change. If not contained, this could again fuel food inflation, which comprises about half of India’s consumer price index basket.

Exogenous forces will act as counterweights, including impact of the heatwave on farm output followed by uneven start to the monsoon, sharp rise in commodity prices impinging on corporate margins and an uncertain global environment,” said Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS Bank Ltd.

For now, indicators are giving mixed signals on activity going forward. While global demand is softening, government spending and a possible pick up in private investment is stoking hopes of a revival.

“As growth recovery progresses, capacity utilization in manufacturing sector has now risen,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist with IDFC First Bank Ltd. “This is likely to support improvement in investment, provided firms’ outlook on growth recovery remains positive.”

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