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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to address the post-budget meeting of the RBI’s central board on Monday and highlight key points of the Union Budget 2022-23, including the fiscal consolidation roadmap and high capex plan.

It has been a custom that the finance minister addresses the RBI board, consisting of RBI Governor and existing four deputy governors, after the budget.

The meeting has been scheduled for February 14 where she would be addressing the board members and talk about announcements made in the Budget to perk up growth hit by three waves of COVID-19, sources said.

The Budget 2022-23 presented earlier this month estimates a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 11.1 percent.

The government expects this growth to be fuelled by a massive capital spending programme outlined in the Budget with a view to crowd-in private investment by reinvigorating economic activities and creating

In the upcoming meeting, we expect Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to build a case for modest and measured policy tightening, in order to keep bond market sentiments in check.

Also read: Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

This central bank support to government borrowing was a great source of market comfort while it lasted. But for every stimulus sugar rush, there is a bitter tapering pill. The ongoing transition from pandemic to endemic means that excess monetary accommodation is being scaled back. A high level of “not so transitory” inflation is only serving to accelerate this process, as central banks increasingly find themselves falling behind the curve. In other words, monetary policy normalisation is closely following our exit from the pandemic.

On the other hand, the glide path to fiscal consolidation is a relatively slow process. Hence, government borrowings are likely to remain elevated. Absent central bank buying, bond markets will now have to absorb this high supply predominantly on their own. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is concluding its asset purchase programme by March and has already signalled monetary tightening soon after. The Bank of England has delivered two consecutive rate hikes and the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently put an end to its government bond purchases.

Also read: Cut in funds for welfare schemes; no steps for inflation or job creation: Shashi Tharoor on Budget

ided the necessary emphasis on capital spending, but that has come at the cost of a large borrowing programme for FY23. Even as headline inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target band, inflationary pressures persist as oil inches up towards $100 a barrel and WPI inflation remains in double digits. With policy normalisation already underway, RBI support to bond markets is expected to remain constrained. This has weighed on bond market sentiments. However, the recent sharp rise in bond yields may already have tightened the financial conditions a bit too hastily for RBI’s comfort.

In the upcoming meeting, we expect the monetary policy committee (MPC) to build a case for modest and measured policy tightening in order to keep bond market sentiments in check. We believe the MPC will gradually normalise the repo rate-reverse repo corridor (to 25 bps) over the next two meetings, starting with a 20 bps reverse repo rate hike in February. Subsequently, the MPC will change its accommodative policy stance to neutral, eventually embarking on a gradual rate hike cycle.

Also read: Budget 2022| PSUs are due for upwards re-rating, even with the lower disinvestment target: ICICI Prudential’s S Naren

In our view, MPC guidance on liquidity normalisation may also be equally unhurried, with the introduction of incrementally longer tenor VRRRs (variable reverse repo rate) over a period. Difficult as it may be, going forward, the RBI has to deftly and non-disruptively juggle its conflicting objectives on inflation, liquidity normalisation and management of the government’s borrowing program. Along the way, sometimes the market may remain orderly, but at times it may not.

Initiating the discussion on the Budget in the Lok Sabha, he said COVID-19 pandemic placed the citizens in unimaginable distress and they suffered a lot of pain due to loss of lives between March and May last year.

In this context, he said, the presentation of a budget annually cannot merely be seen as purely routine economic exercise, rather it is an instrument through which the government of the day presents a political vision to manage the economy, heal the country and to set it on the path to recovery.

There is a “significant slashing of the MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) scheme, more tokenism in credit support for the MSME sector, no changes in the personal income tax regime and no relief in terms of addressing rising inflation, no targeted efforts for job creation”, he said.

The budget has proposed creation of “inadequate” 60 lakh jobs in five years which is “a far cry from the 2 crore jobs the government had promised in the equally illusory ‘acche din’  (good days)”, Tharoor said.

He added that there are reductions in the budget for social welfare programmes, schemes for crop insurance, MSP (minimum support price) and fertlisers, which have leD many farmer groups to term this Budget a “revenge budget”.

The Congress leader also claimed a huge dip in the incomes of lakhs of people in the last five years.

While the wealth of thw richest 100 Indians soared by Rs 57 lakh crore, 4.7 crore Indians slipped into extreme poverty, he said, adding that the government has not recognised the problems which they have caused and the widespread anguish they have inflicted on the common people.

The Congress leader said that the budget has not meet the expectations of the middle class and the poor.

He said there were three broad expectations the nation had from the budget. The first one was that the government would acknowledge the problem the nation is facing, acknowledge that the country is facing unprecedented levels of unemployment which has left countless citizens, specially young and dynamic working age population, with little prospects for a brighter tomorrow, Tharoor said.

The government, he said, admitted that one-fifth of India’s population has plunged a staggering 53 per cent in the last five years in terms of their income.

The government should have also acknowledged that the Indian middle class has been left defenceless in the face of rising inflation, shrinking incomes and the consequent acceleration in household debt, besides recognising the widespread distress and anguish in the agrarian economy, he said.

On the contentious farm laws, he said the legislations drove hundreds of farmers to sit for protest in cold winters, harsh summer sun and in the soaking monsoon rain, in a cause for which over 670 of them gave their lives.

The former minister criticised the government for allegedly having scant regard for the fundamental conventions or institutions of the country that have traditionally guided India’s democracy.

Citing a couplet, he said, “We have been left bitterly disappointed by this government’s unwillingness to offer even a token recognition of the problems they have caused, of the widespread anguish they have inflicted upon the aam aadmi, the unemployed youth, our farmers who are still facing the existential crisis caused by this government.” This House, he said, has not forgotten the prime minister’s talk about zero budget natural farming, because his government “has left zero” in the budget for farmers.

Further, the Congress leader said the people were expecting the government to announce some concrete actions and corrective measures to address the “multi-pronged calamities” that it had caused them.

“… and an expectation to address the increasing unemployment crisis and declining labour force participation by developing targeted measures for job creation and strengthening existing job guarantee schemes like MNREGA,” he noted.

The people, the Congress leader said, were also expecting it to mitigate the impact of the pandemic induced crisis, reduction in income tax or at least raising the exemption slab to Rs 5 lakh.

On inflation, he said there is an unprecedented rise in the prices of basic commodities.

Tharoor said the government repeatedly increased excise duty on fuel and was not able to tackle the issue of increase in prices of basic commodities like LPG cylinders, pulses and edible oils.

LPG prices in Delhi gone up from Rs 502 to Rs 899, he said, adding “is that the ecosystem they would like to talk about?” “And where our farmers are concerned, (there was) an expectation to fix the cracks in our MSP and offer them support in terms of procurement of basic commodities like fertilisers at a time when the prices of raw materials are sky rocketing. Sadly, this government’s budget has given the nation exactly the opposite,” he said.

Tharoor also alleged that the government has failed to address the concerns of the common people.

Public-sector unit stocks remain undervalued and a re-rating looks highly likely, said S Naren.

The CIO of ICICI Prudential AMC was discussing the impact of the lowering of the disinvestment target on PSUs.

The discussions were on whether the government may have scaled down its plans after not being able to execute its earlier, more ambitious one. Also, if any further delay could have the government holding on to companies that aren’t competitive and losing an opportunity to sell in a bull market. 

Naren didn’t seem too worried about the companies losing value.

“They  remain undervalued, though a part of the undervaluation was corrected in the last 12 to 18 months,” he said.

The interest in value stocks and decent performance by the PSUs over the last few years will lead to their rerating, he said.  

“There was a lot of interest in growth stocks till some point of time. But, today,  across the world, you're seeing interest in value stocks making a comeback. (Therefore) many of the PSU stocks got re-rated over a period of time and a lot of further revaluation will happen as global yields go up. Over the last few years, any of these companies have actually seen decent performance. In the last six to seven years, many of them have not made serious capital allocation mistakes,” he said.

Private sector companies have faltered in and even have vacated sectors in which they had thought they could easily beat the PSUs, he pointed out.

“If you look at sectors such as power, for example, many of the private sector power companies did much more serious power-capital allocation mistakes than the public sector players. In  fact, most of the private sector players have actually walked out of the sector. There are so many sectors where the private sector thought that it could make money very easily, but they bid wrongly and now they have exited the space, leaving the space for the public sector. So, I think there's a lot of opportunity and a lot of rerating is yet to happen,” he said.

“Recently, a Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) circular said that, if the government is coming out with any policy changes that could affect the stocks, they should think about it before they take any such decision… such are very, very positive for the re-rating of the sector,” he said. 

The pricing of the PSUs is also attractive, he said. “Many of them are still available at very attractive dividend yields and low PE and compared to the market which trades at very high PE,” he said.

Here are some of the other takeaways from his talking points.

*Unique situation with “under-budgeted” revenue.

You've got under-budgeted revenue, maybe even under-budgeted some kinds of expenditure… its a unique situation. If the LIC IPO goes through, you'll have a much lower fiscal deficit than what has been budgeted by the government. So, I think it's a new government that is really trying to surpass what it is committing to in a budget. And that's a very different situation from where we used to have at one point of time,” he said. 

* Asset allocation will be essential to make money this year.

“If you don't do active management, and if you don't do asset allocation, it will be very difficult to make money this year. That was a call we gave at the start of the year in December. And we continue to retain that view till the time the Fed settles and says that they are through with tightening, that they are now comfortable. Till that point of time, we will remain a big believer in both asset allocation and active management,” he said.

He said this is all more important since the “the global central bank bull market” ended in November 2021. 

The Centre will move the issue of bringing aviation turbine fuel (ATF) under the GST net for discussion in the next meeting of the GST Council, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Sunday, while noting that rising global fuel prices are a "concern".

When the GST was introduced on July 1, 2017, amalgamating over a dozen central and state levies, five commodities of crude oil, natural gas, petrol, diesel and ATF were kept out of its purview given the revenue dependence of the central and state governments on this sector. Sitharaman, in a post-Budget discussion with industry chamber Assocham, said a final decision of inclusion of ATF in GST will be taken by the Council, which comprises finance ministers from central and state governments.

ALSO READ: Budget 2022: Thermal power companies eye coal-cess cut, signals on GST for electricity

"It is not with … (the Centre) alone, it has got to go to the GST Council. The next time we meet in the Council, I will put it on the table for them to discuss it," she said. The next meeting of the Council is expected by either in end-February or in March. Sitharaman was responding to views expressed by SpiceJet Founder Ajay Singh where he sought the support of the Union finance minister in bringing ATF under the GST regime.

"Oil is at USD 90, the rupee is at 75 to a dollar and, therefore, the civil aviation sector has become chronically ill. Your kind support (in bringing ATF into GST) in this process will be extremely helpful," Singh said. Currently, the central government levies excise duty on ATF while state governments charge VAT. These taxes, with excise duty, in particular, have been raised periodically with rising oil prices.

Including oil products in GST will not just help companies set off tax that they paid on input but will also bring about uniformity in taxation on the fuels in the country. "Of course just not for the airline but the global price of fuel is now a concern for all of us, more so for airlines which have not seen a complete head-up post the pandemic," Sitharaman said.

She said she will speak with the banks to see what best can be done for the airline sector. "You also spoke about the industry status to be given so that it can help attain better banking assistance. I will have a word with banks on that," she said. Singh in his remark had said banks instead of being supportive to stressed sectors are withdrawing facilities from these sectors. "So, I request that there should be a message of support from the government.

"If for a period of 2/3 years these sectors could be put under priority lending or infra category that would help because today the banks are not there when we need them, they are in sectors which are doing well and that's creating a great deal of stress," Singh added. In her response, Sitharaman said, "There are serious problems for you, I understand. Just as we were thinking that the airline industry is going to revive we had Omicron come in and more than anything else states being very, very cautious have brought in again severe restrictions in movement of people and…internationally too the quarantine requirements are really hurting the airline industry just at a time when you are likely seeing a revival".

With regard to issues faced by the renewable energy sector, the minister said there is a need for more coordination between the states and the Centre and the difficulties that the sector faces because of legacy problems will be addressed first so that more investments can be attracted. "There are still very entrenched problems in this sector and that is what we are trying, layer by layer, to clear and the power minister is working together with all of us.

"Hopefully, the difficulties that the sector faces because of legacy problems we will address that and get that cleared out of the way so that futuristic finance and possibilities for better partnership can be worked out. This is not going to be long drawn. We would like to quickly sort this out," Sitharaman said. She said the power ministry is already working with the states to sort out the energy sector problems so that the commitments given in Glasgow by the Prime Minister are honoured.

In his address at the COP26 in Glasgow in November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced a bold pledge that India will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 and asserted that it is the only country that is delivering in letter and spirit the commitments on tackling climate change under the Paris Agreement. In his address at the Assocham post budget conference, ReNew Power Chairman and CEO Sumant Sinha said the boldest step was allocating Rs 19,500 crore in the Budget for the solar PLI scheme. It will position India as a great alternative manufacturing destination to China, he said.

Petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged on February 5 – a notification issued by state-owned fuel retailers showed. There has been no change for over 90 days.

The last rate cut was by Delhi which reduced the local sales tax or value-added tax (VAT) on petrol from 30 to 19.4 percent from December 1 midnight, bringing down the price by around Rs 8 to Rs 95.41 a litre. Diesel price also remains unchanged in the national capital at Rs 86.67 a litre.

On November 3, the Centre had gone for the deepest excise duty cut ever to bring down retail prices from record highs, reducing the duty on petrol by Rs 5 and on diesel by Rs 10. Many states and union territories followed the Centre's lead to give further relief to consumers.

In Mumbai, a November 4 cut reduced the price of petrol to Rs 109.98 a litre, which remains unchanged. Diesel is at Rs 94.14 a litre.

In Kolkata, petrol and diesel prices remained at Rs 104.67 and Rs 89.79. Petrol was at Rs 101.40 and diesel at Rs 91.43 in Chennai.

Petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged on February 04 – a notification issued by state-owned fuel retailers showed. There has been no change for over 90 days.

The last rate cut was by Delhi which reduced the local sales tax or value-added tax (VAT) on petrol from 30 to 19.4 percent from December 1 midnight, bringing down the price by around Rs 8 to Rs 95.41 a litre. Diesel price also remains unchanged in the national capital at Rs 86.67 a litre.

On November 3, the Centre had gone for the deepest excise duty cut ever to bring down retail prices from record highs, reducing the duty on petrol by Rs 5 and on diesel by Rs 10. Many states and union territories followed the Centre's led to give further relief to consumers.

In Mumbai, a November 4 cut reduced the price of petrol to Rs 109.98 a litre, which remains unchanged. Diesel is at Rs 94.14 a litre.

In Kolkata, petrol and diesel prices remained at Rs 104.67 and Rs 89.79. Petrol was at Rs 101.40 and diesel at Rs 91.43 in Chennai.

The states and union territories that had gone for VAT reduction after the excise duty cut by the Centre include Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Sikkim, Mizoram, Daman and Diu, Karnataka and Puducherry.

Others include Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Tripura, Gujarat, Nagaland, Punjab, Goa, Meghalaya, Odisha, Rajasthan, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Andaman and Nicobar, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana.

States that have so far not lowered VAT include are largely opposition ruled states including Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu. TMC-governed West Bengal, Left-ruled Kerala, TRS-led Telangana and YSR Congress-ruled Andhra Pradesh have also not cut VAT.

Congress-ruled Punjab, which is due for election by March, has seen the biggest drop in petrol prices after it slashed VAT the most. The union territory of Ladakh saw the biggest fall in diesel rates.

Budget 2022: A stable income-tax regime is good for equity markets