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Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Rise at Risk of Failing

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  • USDCAD rise marked by grinding price action, may fail
  • May fail, but still need to respect channel in the meantime
  • Specific levels and lines to watch in the days ahead


The U.S. Dollar has been rallying against the Canadian Dollar since last month, but the rise in USDCAD hasn’t been particularly strong and has slowed even further in recent sessions. Sluggish price action suggests a break to the downside could soon be in the works.

But before jumping the gun on shorts, the near-term upward technical structure still remains in place and needs to be snapped before sellers can start to gain the upper hand. Watch for a break of the lower parallel and a lower-low to unfold under last week’s low at 13184 (4-hr chart). Should this happen then a larger decline could be in store.

The initial target on a breakdown clocks in at the 2012 trend-line and July low (just above 13000), which should be in near confluence at the time price would arrive (daily chart). A decline to that point would be a very important test. Not only is it a long-term trend-line, but a failure to hold could lead to a sharp sell-off similar to 2017 as the grind higher since that year fully gives way to selling (weekly chart).

On the top-side, if the USDCAD can continue to maintain the channel, or at the least maintain its higher-high, higher-low form, then the next major obstacle beyond 13344 is the trend-line running down off the 2016 peak.


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Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 2-Week Highs, Sterling Edges Up

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The U.S. dollar was hovering near two-week highs against a currency basket on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from recent lows amid hopes that major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus.

The U.S. dollar index, against a basket of six major currencies was at 98.05 by 03:01 AM ET (07:01 GMT), not far from the two-week high of 98.20 reached on Friday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.57%, having pulled away from a three-year trough of 1.47% marked last week in the wake of global slowdown fears.

Falling yields last week caused the two-year/10-year Treasury curve to invert for the first since 2007, a phenomenon widely regarded as a recession signal that puts the Federal Reserve interest rate deliberations into focus.

"This week's main event is the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chairman (Jerome) Powell's speech," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

Powell will deliver a speech on Friday at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"What Powell has to say is in focus as the discrepancy remains between what he said on interest rates and what the markets have come to expect the Fed will do," Ishikawa said.

Powell said after the Fed lowered rates in July that the easing was not the start of a series of cuts. But market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next policy meeting in September have increased.

The euro was steady at 1.1092 while the British pound edged up 0.15% to 1.2166.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 106.37.

The Chinese yuan was slightly lower after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready yet to make a trade with China.

Traders were also cautious ahead of the debut of China's new benchmark lending rate on Tuesday, which was announced at the weekend.

The People’s Bank of China on Saturday unveiled interest rate reforms to help lower borrowing costs for companies and support slowing growth, which has been hit by the trade war with the U.S.

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Forex - USD Flat; Trump Wants Hong Kong Problems Solved Before Making Trade Deal

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The U.S. dollar was flat on Monday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of Fed minutes due later this week.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was largely unchanged at 98.072 by 12:37 AM ET (04:37 GMT).

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve this week as traders await fresh insights on how the central bank may respond to growing fears of a recession after the U.S. Treasury yield inverted last week. 

The Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting on Wednesday, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Friday. 

Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair slipped 0.1% to 7.0446. The People’s Bank of China sets the yuan’s reference rate at 7.0365 today, versus 7.0312 on Friday. 

Developments on the Sino-U.S. trade front were in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump insisted their trade war with China did no harm to the U.S. and that the economy is “doing tremendously well.”

“Our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they’re loaded up with money,” Trump said on Sunday. The president also reiterated that he is not ready to make a trade deal with China, hinting that he wants to see Beijing deal with the ongoing protests in Hong Kong first. 

“I would like to see Hong Kong worked out in a very humanitarian fashion,” Trump said. “I think it would be very good for the trade deal.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

Tech giant Huawei was also under the spotlight today as U.S. President Donald Trump said he does not want to do business with the company “at all because it is a national security threat.”

The Wall Street Journal and Reuters previously reported that the U.S. was preparing to extend a licence that would allow Huawei to buy parts from U.S. companies for 90 days. The current agreement will end today.
“We’ll see what happens. I’m making a decision tomorrow,” Trump said.

The USD/JPY pair was unchanged at 106.36. The safe-haven yen was under pressure earlier today on expectations that policymakers would unleash new stimulus amid slowing global economies.

On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China said it would improve the mechanism used to establish the loan prime rate so it could “use market-based reform methods to help lower real lending rates The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.1% to 0.6783, while the NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1%.

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Fiscal stimulus plans face a revenue roadblock

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With the Reserve Bank of India easing monetary policy, the theatre of action seems to have shifted to Delhi, with industry lobbies and a section of economists demanding a fiscal stimulus to boost the sagging fortunes of the economy. However, revenue constraints may limit the government’s ability to spend beyond what has already been proposed in the Budget, unless it resorts to extra-budgetary methods to boost public sector spending.

The latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) shows that the gross tax collections of the Union government in the quarter ended June grew at 1.4 percent over the year-ago period, the slowest pace since the slump following the global financial crisis in fiscal 2010. In the quarter ended June 2009, tax collections had fallen by 11.4 percent over the year-ago period. The last quarter was the worst June quarter in terms of tax collections since 2009.

The year-on-year growth rate required in the remaining part of the year (Jul-Mar) to meet the budget estimate for fiscal 2020 is now 22 percent. But even if it misses the target for the year, it does not necessarily mean that the deficit target would be missed, at least on paper. In past years as well, the government has missed revenue targets, and often made up the shortfall to a great extent by delaying payments and through off-budget financing.

However, it is worth noting that such methods are not sustainable, and over time, the government’s auditor (CAG) as well as the government’s creditors (bond markets) have become extremely wary of the government’s off-budget financing methods. They may not continue to look the other way as such accounting tricks are deployed each year to make deficit figures appear respectable. Already, speculation about a stimulus package has sent bond yields soaring (bond yields are inversely related to bond prices). If yields continue to rise, this could raise the government’s borrowing costs significantly, and negate the impact of a stimulus package.

The core challenge facing India’s public finances is its broken revenue generating system, which cannot be fixed without structural reforms. And the first item on the reform agenda must be the goods and services tax (GST).

The shortfall in the centre’s GST collections was as high as 22 percent in the last fiscal year, provisional data from CGA shows. Given the trend in monthly collections so far, the prognosis for GST collections does not appear bright for fiscal 2020 as well.

Despite pick up, GST collections remained below the required monthly rate in July


Hailed as the single biggest tax reform when it was implemented in July 2017, GST was expected to boost indirect tax revenues and improve compliance even while adding to growth

After two years of botched implementation, GST has failed to live up to its promise. A recent Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report shows how revenues have in fact slowed down after the introduction of the new tax.

The government’s revenues from goods and services (excluding petroleum and tobacco) in fiscal 2018, the first year of GST, fell 10 percent over the year-ago period (after these goods and services were subsumed under GST), the auditor’s report showed. With this, the growth in aggregate indirect taxes slowed down to 5.8 percent in fiscal 2018 from 21.3 percent in fiscal 2017.

While economic slowdown and GST rate cuts may partly explain the lacklustre growth in indirect tax collections, according to some economists, a complex structure may have also contributed to the disappointing revenues collected under GST. In an interview to Mint, the former chief economic advisor to the finance ministry, Arvind Virmani argued that a simpler single rate structure (along with exemptions and surcharges) would have simplified the compliance process and made tracing taxable transactions easier.

The complexity of GST returns that have to be filed by GST-payers and the technical flaws in the GSTN system has meant that tax compliance has not increased meaningfully in the post-GST era, the CAG report pointed out. The promise of a simplified tax compliance regime continues to remain elusive, it further added.

GST has not seen any significant improvement in tax compliance


The complex structure with many tax rates has made the system of input tax credit (ITC) --- the bedrock of the GST reform --- susceptible to fraud. Input tax credit is a refund businesses can claim for GST already paid on the goods and services purchased as business input. But a complicated tax rate structure with different tax rates applied to different goods and services (and in some cases different rates applied to the same product or service based on material or unit value) along with a complex set of rules has introduced several loopholes in the system.

For instance, GST rules allow real estate companies to choose between a lower rate of 5 per cent without input tax credit or a higher rate of 12 per cent but with input tax credit. Real estate companies can choose different options for different buildings (or towers) even within the same real estate complex provided they are registered separately under the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act. As a Business Standard report pointed out earlier this year, this allowed some real estate companies to game the system and claim higher input tax credit than they were entitled to, by opting for 5 percent tax on one tower and claiming refund for GST paid on the entire construction cost by opting for 12 percent GST on other towers.

Other reports of ‘briefcase firms’ have emerged which suggest that fake companies have been floated to issue fake invoices and fraudulently claim input tax credits.

When GST was first rolled out on July 1, 2017, it was visualized along with a self-regulating system of invoice matching, which was crucial for determining the final input tax credit (ITC) in a fair and correct manner. As per the original design, input tax credit was to be generated in the GST portal after reconciling invoice-wise details from returns filed by sellers with those filed by purchasers. But even after two years, such a system-verified and automated process has not become fully functional, the CAG report noted, underlining that this system is necessary to realize the benefits of the tax reform.

“It (automated invoice matching) would protect the tax revenues of both the Centre and the States, it would lead to proper settlement of IGST (Integrated Goods and Services Tax) and would minimise, if not eliminate, the tax official-assessee interface," the report said. “In fact, even “assessment" in the sense understood in the manual system may no longer be necessary (returns themselves can be generated by a system that matches invoices); and cases of evasion etc. can be traced by applying analytical tools and AI to the massive data that crores of invoices generate."

Unsurprisingly, the current system has led to tax leakages and errors in computation of tax revenues of both the Centre and the states. But it has also led to improper settlement of the IGST (paid for inter-state transactions), the auditor pointed out.

During fiscal 2018, Rs 2.12 trillion of IGST balance was unsettled due to incomplete information in the ledgers. This reflects delays in settlement of IGST to states. Owing to the huge unsettled balance in IGST, the GST Council in its 25th meeting held in January 2018 recommended advance settlement of Rs 35,000 crores to the Centre and the States on provisional basis, which left an unsettled balance of Rs 1.77 trillion. While the IGST funds are being transferred to states on an ad-hoc basis, these transfers are provisional in nature as the GSTN system has so far not allowed a calculation of the actual transfers that need to be made.

The CAG report also highlighted that during fiscal 2018, there was a shortfall of Rs 6,466 crores in transfer of GST compensation cess (meant for transfers to states) to the public account (where the government parks funds not belonging to it). The lower transfer to the public account inaccurately bumped up the government’s fiscal position at the end of the financial year.


If indirect taxes appear to be a mess, things do not appear bright on the direct taxes front either. While there was a spurt in the growth of direct tax collections after demonetisation, it slipped in fiscal 2019 according to the provisional tax receipt figures from CGA. The average growth in direct tax collections over the past five years was 12 percent compared to an average of 15 percent under the UPA II government (2009-2014).

Reforms such as the direct tax code which could have lent simplicity and stability to the direct tax system have remained pending for long years.

Unless the government reforms its tax structure to boost revenue collection, it will have to keep relying on off-budget funding or incur spending cuts. As a share of the budget estimate, the government’s spending in the first quarter of the current fiscal (quarter ending June) has already seen a sharp decline compared to the previous two years.

Government spent a smaller share of the annual estimated expenditure in Apr-Jun this year

capture 5

As the pressure to spend rises, and the government’s revenue projections become ever harder to achieve, would we witness new forms of tax adventurism once again?

Forex - Dollar Steady; Euro Recovers from Italy Shock; U.K. GDP Eyed

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The dollar was mixed within relatively narrow ranges Friday at the start of European trading, after the Chinese yuan defied some weak factory gate inflation data to end the week on a stable note.

In Europe, the euro recovered most of its Thursday losses after the eruption of the latest political crisis in Italy, where Matteo Salvini, the head of the right-wing populist Lega party, called for new elections in a move to cement his power. The reaction was more violent in the bond and stock markets, where Italian assets sold off dramatically.

By 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT), the euro was at $1.1188, up 0.2% from overnight lows. It was relatively unmoved by data for French industrial production in June, which fell by a greater-than-expected 2.3%, consistent with the dismal pattern in neighboring Germany.

The British pound remained under pressure ahead of second-quarter gross domestic product figures, which are due at 0830 GMT. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was reported on Thursday to be planning a general election in early November, days after the country’s scheduled departure from the EU.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was effectively unchanged at 97.403

The latest rant by President Donald Trump against the strength of the dollar and the Federal Reserve via Twitter on Thursday has had no lasting effect on the market, beyond reminding participants of the risk of intervention to depress the dollar.

“A currency war has not erupted – at least, not yet. But the danger is real,” said ING analyst Benjamin Cohen. “Relations between the world’s two largest economies could go from bad to much worse.”

Cohen noted that the Trump administration’s labeling of China as a currency manipulator may lead China to respond in kind to save face, through measures such as a ban on the export of rare earth elements vital for high-tech manufacturing.

Figures released earlier Friday showed China’s producer price inflation index turning negative for the first time in three years, stoking fears that it will ‘export deflation’ to the rest of the world as it did between 2012 and 2016.

The yuan, however, stayed well within the range it had traded in this week. On the mainland it fell by less than 0.1% to 7.0503 to the dollar, while in the less regulated offshore market, it rose fractionally to 7.0757. The discount to the People’s Bank of China’s fixing narrowed as the central bank pegged the yuan at a new 11-year low of 7.0136.

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'RBI policy to remain accommodative, more rate cuts likely in future'

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy stance is clearly pro-growth, which is critical to achieve the target of becoming a $5-trillion economy by 2025. Of late, the Indian economy has been going through a challenging phase. GDP growth, although still high in comparison to other major economies, has been falling short of expectations. Recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut the gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 7 per cent from 7.3 per cent for FY20.

RBI itself has cut the GDP growth target to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent for FY-20. It expects the first half of FY20 to clock growth of 5.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent and the second half to clock growth of 7.3 per cent to 7.5 per cent. But the risks are somewhat tilted to the downside.

The weakening of demand along with the liquidity crisis in non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are the two biggest challenges right now, and the central bank has clearly focussed on these two issues. It raised the ceiling for banks' exposure to a single NBFC to 20 per cent of the bank’s Tier-I capital, from 15 per cent earlier. It also relaxed the definition of priority sector lending, so that banks can lend to those NBFCs that further lend to such sectors. RBI has also announced the setting up of a central payments fraud registry to track the systems for frauds. It is expected to come up with detailed guidelines by the end of August to tackle the NBFC crisis. These measures, taken to increase flows to NBFC, is credit-positive and should enhance lending.

The inflation is firmly below the target level of 4 per cent, but there are clear signs of decline in consumption. The private sector is still hesitant on committing capital expenditure. The global economic condition has also been unfavourable for quite some time. The uncertainties of Brexit and the US-China trade war are persistent, along with the political turmoil in the Middle East. In this backdrop, RBI has been taking proactive measures to spur demand growth. This was the fourth consecutive cut in the repo rate, which now stands at 5.4 per cent. The economy is expected to start coming back to its high growth path as the benefits of rate cuts are gradually passed on. And as the balance sheets of banks become cleaner, we believe that they will accelerate the passing on of rate cuts to consumers and businesses.

Given the global economic outlook and the challenges on the domestic front, the economy may take some more time to start performing as per expectations, and therefore the policy stance is expected to remain accommodative. The inflation outlook remains benign, and therefore one can expect more rate cuts in the future.

EUR/GBP approaches 2019 highs near 0.9250

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  • EUR/GBP moves closer to YTD tops, trades around 0.9250/55.
  • UK advanced Q2 GDP disappointed estimates today.
  • UK’s M.Gove suggested a bank holiday on November 1.

EUR/GBP is now picking up extra upside traction and moves at shouting distance from yesterday’s 2019 highs in the 0.9250/60 band.

EUR/GBP bid after poor GDP figures

The Sterling is not only suffering from the rising uncertainty around Brexitand the clear possibility of a ‘no deal’ outcome, but it is also deriving extra weakness from miserable prints from advanced Q2 GDP figures released today.

In fact, the UK economy is now seen contracting 0.2% QoQ during the April-June period and it is expected to grow at an annualized 1.2%, both prints coming in noticeably below forecasts.

Further poor UK data saw Business Investment expected to contract at a quarterly 0.5% in Q2 and Manufacturing Production contracting at a monthly 0.2% during June. On the brighter side, Industrial Production contracted less than expected (0.1% MoM) and the trade deficit shrunk to £7.01 billion also in June.

On the Brexit front, preparations for a ‘no deal’ scenario stay on the rise, as M.Gove suggested earlier today a bank holiday on November 1 in order to mitigate the potential consequences to the banking system of the ‘hard’ UK-EU divorce.

What to look for around GBP

The outlook on the British Pound looks increasingly fragile pari passu with rising odds for a Brexit ‘no deal’ on October 31. In the meantime, the Irish backstop remains the exclusive obstacle for the resumption of talks between London and Brussels, although the subject appears relegated in light of preparations for the worst-case scenario. Back to the UK economy, poor flash Q2 GDP figures published today added to the already gloomy panorama from UK fundamentals, keeping the sour prospect for the economy and the currency unchanged. At last week’s BoE event, the central bank kept the monetary conditions unchanged, although it refuses to factor in a ‘no deal’ scenario in its projections. The BoE still sees a ‘soft Brexit’ outcome and reiterated that rates are seen increasing gradually in order to bring inflation to the bank’s target.

EUR/GBP key levels

The cross is advancing 0.47% at 0.9255 and faces the next up barrier at 0.9265 (2019 high Aug.8) followed by 0.9306 (2018 high Aug.29) and finally 0.9411 (monthly high Oct. 2009). On the flip side, a breach of 0.9088 (low Jul.31) would open the door to 0.9074 (21-day SMA) and then 0.9051 (high Jul.17).

EUR/USD is consolidating – Commerzbank

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According to Commerzbank, EUR/USD is consolidating just below resistance at 1.1285 and the 200 day ma at 1.1296 and the consolidation is viewed in a positive light.

Key Quotes

“Key resistance is 1.1360/77, the 2018-2019 down channel and the 55 week ma. A weekly close above this latter level is needed for us to adopt an outright bullish stance. Dips lower are likely to find some support circa 1.1150/06. Key support is the 1.0967 2018-2019 support line and below here lies the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

“The market will need to regain the 55 week ma and channel at 1.1360/77 to generate upside interest.”

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Government building consensus to announce relief measures for FPIs, NBFC sector

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The government is likely to come up with an announcement to provide some relief to FPIs and the NBFC sector.

A senior government official told Moneycontrol that the government is aware of the issue of surcharge on foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and it is building a consensus on the issue.

The official said, "Some relief for FPIs on higher surcharge may be announced soon. We are trying to build consensus on relief for FPIs surcharge issue."

In her maiden budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had proposed raising surcharge on the super-rich. This surcharge also increased the tax burden on FPIs as most are organised as non-corporate entities such as trusts and associations where taxation is similar as for individuals.

The announcement made way for the bears to take hold of the market as the average market capitalisation of the BSE-listed companies fell from Rs 151.35 lakh crore on budget day, to Rs 138.37 lakh crore on August 5, wiping out Rs 12.98 lakh crore.

Some relief measures on sectors like the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) would be announced by the government soon, the official said.

The official also said that relief for NBFCs along with measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for NBFCs are expected to have a multiplier effect on the economy.

On August 7, in its monetary policy, the RBI announced the setting up of a central payments fraud registry to track the systems for frauds and increasing exposure limits for lending banks to single NBFCs to 20 percent. The previous limit was 15 percent of the bank’s Tier-I capital.

The RBI also said that to boost credit flow to certain priority sectors, bank lending to registered NBFCs for on-lending to agriculture (investment credit) up to Rs 10 lakh; micro and small enterprises up to Rs 20 lakh; and housing up to Rs 20 lakh per borrower will be classified as priority sector lending.

Dollar slips as markets recover; China data helps

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LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower across the board on Thursday, as risk sentiment stabilized after resilient Chinese trade data and Beijing's efforts to slow a slide in the value of the renminbi encouraged investors to buy riskier currencies.

Data showed Chinese exports rose 3.3% in July from a year earlier, while analysts had looked for a fall of 2%, and policymakers fixed the daily value of the yuan at a firmer level than many had expected, even though it was beyond the 7 per dollar level for the first time since the global financial crisis.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was broadly steady at 97.58, but it weakened 0.1% versus the Australian dollar and the British pound

"The recent comments from Chinese officials suggest they want to stabilize their currency, otherwise a sharp currency drop may fuel capital outflows," said Manuel Oliveri, an FX strategist at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR) in London.

"The other factor helping risk sentiment is a growing swathe of central bank cuts."

This week, New Zealand joined India and Thailand in cutting interest rates, with market expectations growing that other major central banks will join in further easing monetary policy.

Indeed, market expectations for more than a quarter point rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September is still firmly baked into bond markets, despite an overnight bounce in global markets.

Those expectations forced the dollar to weaken also against the euro and the yen.

The yen was a tad firmer at 106.185 per dollar. It touched 105.500 yen overnight, its strongest level since Jan. 3, before pulling back slightly.

"The yen's appreciation versus the dollar may have slowed for now, but it stands to keep gaining in the longer term," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. "Its other peers, notably the antipodean currencies, have weakened severely and this provides overall support to the yen."

The kiwi nudged up 0.1% to $0.6452, following a slide to a 3-1/2 year low of $0.6378 on Wednesday after the rate cut.

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