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Thought Of The Day (24/5/2021)

24. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Thought Of the Day (22-5-2021)

22. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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IDBI Bank launches digital loan processing system for MSME, agri borrowers

21. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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The Loan Processing System (LPS) for MSME and Agri products seamlessly integrate with data fintech, bureau validations, document storage, account management, and customer notifications among others, IDBI Bank said in a statement.

IDBI Bank on Wednesday announced the launch of its fully digitized loan processing system, offering over 50 products to MSME and therefore the agriculture sector.

The Loan Processing System (LPS) for MSME and Agri products seamlessly integrate with data fintech, bureau validations, document storage, account management, and customer notifications among others, IDBI Bank said during a release.

These features of the fully digitized and automatic loan processing system are further aimed toward providing a superior tech-enabled banking experience to the bank's MSME and Agri customers, it said.

"LPS would carry a complete of quite 50 product lines and would offer a seamless credit lifecycle with over 35 interface touchpoints to several satellite systems," Suresh Khatanhar, Deputy director, IDBI Bank said.

He said the LPS integrates with the prevailing core database, human resource management system, and various other applications of the bank. This utility would considerably enhance the customer experience with improved turn-around time, Khatanhar said.

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Adani Green shares hit 5% upper circuit on acquisition of SB Energy's renewable portfolio

19. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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The deal is expected to enable Adani Green Energy to achieve its target renewable portfolio of 25 GW, four years ahead of the timeline, and takes the company’s present total renewable capacity to 24.3 GW and operating renewable capacity of 4.9 GW.

Adani Green Energy's share price spiked 5 percent at open on May 19 after the company said it will acquire the renewable portfolio from SB Energy.

Adani Green Energy will acquire 5 GW of renewable power portfolio from SB Energy India for a fully completed enterprise evaluation (EV) of $3.5 billion (approx Rs 26,000 crore).

The share purchase agreement was signed on May 19 for the acquisition of 100 percent interest in SB Energy from SoftBank Group and Bharti Group, which held 80 percent and 20 percent stake, respectively.

The stock was trading at Rs 1,257.95, up Rs 59.00, or 4.92 percent at 09:28 hours. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,258.85 and an intraday low of Rs 1,217.90.

SB Energy has a total renewable portfolio of 4,954 MW in four states. This is the largest acquisition in India's renewable space.

The deal is expected to enable Adani Green Energy to achieve its target renewable portfolio of 25 GW, four years ahead of the timeline, and takes the company’s present total renewable capacity to 24.3 GW and operating renewable capacity of 4.9 GW.

“This acquisition demonstrates Adani Green Energy’s intent to be the leader in sustainable energy transition globally and makes it one of the largest renewable energy platforms in the world. The closing of the transaction is subject to customary approvals and conditions,” a statement from the company read.

Tata Motors share price gains 2% ahead of Q4 results, brokerages forecast 5-fold jump in EBITDA

18. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Brokerages forecast a five-fold rise in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) on the back of a 40 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue.

Tata Motors share price gained 2 percent in the morning session on May 18 ahead of its Q4 results to be announced later in the day.

Brokerages expect a five-fold jump in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) on the back of a 40 percent year-on-year (YoY) growth in revenue.

The auto major reported a 90 percent rise in standalone volumes (India) to 1.91 lakh units for Q4 FY21 driven by strong passenger vehicle demand and recovery in commercial vehicle demand. Its subsidiary, the UK-based luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover, is expected to report a 2 percent YoY decline in volume (excluding China JV) but a 7-8 percent YoY increase (including China JV).

The stock was trading at Rs 326.85, up to Rs 5.75, or 1.79 percent, at 0943 hours. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 328.20 and an intraday low of Rs 324.10.

"During the quarter, the commercial vehicle segment has witnessed growth on the back of improved consumer sentiments, stable freight rates, and higher infrastructure demand. The passenger vehicle business witnessed strong growth on a low base with robust demand for personal mobility and new launches. The electric vehicle segment witnessed 3x growth on a YoY basis," said KR Choksey.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects JLR volumes to increase by 7 percent YoY (including China JV) and down 2 percent YoY (excluding China JV) in Q4 FY21. The brokerage further expects revenues (ex-China JV) to increase by 23 percent YoY led by a 2 percent YoY decline in volumes and a 25 percent YoY increase in the average selling price in Q4FY21 due to a positive geographical mix.

Tata Motors' share price has surged 75 percent in 2021. In the preceding 12-month period, the stock delivered a whopping 298 percent to its investors.

Fuel demand in COVID-hit India plunges in May

17. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Gasoline and diesel sales over May 1-15 fell by about 20%, while jet fuel consumption slumped by nearly 38%, versus April 1-15 levels, the data compiled by the state refiners showed.

Rates had already crossed the Rs 100-mark in several cities in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra and with the latest increase, prices in Mumbai too were inching towards that level.

Gasoline and diesel sales over May 1-15 fell by about 20%, while jet fuel consumption slumped by nearly 38%, versus April 1-15 levels, the data compiled by the state refiners showed.

"Trucking activity is almost half of what it used to be in normal times," SP Singh, a senior fellow at Indian Foundation of Transport Research & Training, said.

"Most of the business that they were getting from small and medium business has been hit due to lockdowns," Singh said, adding only a fraction of 5.5 million trucks is currently running on roads due to lockdowns.

Indian fuel demand had recovered to near pre-COVID levels in March but has been declining since April was given restrictions amid a staggering spike in infections to record highs.

India on Monday reported 281,386 new coronavirus infections over the last 24 hours, while deaths rose by 4,106. The South Asian nation's total caseload is 24.97 million with the death toll at 274,390, health ministry data showed.

Federal health officials have warned against any complacency over a "plateauing" in the rise of infections and urged states to strengthen their medical infrastructure and workforce.

India's demand for transportation fuels is expected to witness a sharper slump in May due to more impending restrictions, analysts say.

Due to a decline in local fuel sales, Indian refiners have started cutting crude processing and import State companies - Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd - own about 90% of India's retail fuel outlets.

Domestic fuel sales by state retailers over May 1-15, however, were higher versus a year earlier when there was a nationwide lockdown.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

Growth versus inflation tussle will dictate market trends going ahead

15. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Humongous liquidity infusion by the leading central banks (above $10 trillion) should have created inflation. But inflation had ceased to be a monetary phenomenon in the developed world for more than a decade now.At any given time the market will be pulled up or down by positive and negative triggers. That's why markets are volatile. When the positive triggers are dominant a bullish trend will be formed, and when the negative triggers weigh over positives, markets will turn structurally bearish. Even though long-term trends are established by GDP and earnings growth, in the short to medium-term, other factors like liquidity, interest rates, exchange rates and expectations around these macros can exert an undue influence on the market.

The important question now is: How are the markets likely to trend, going forward? Let's get the economy-market construct in perspective. In 2020 the global economy slipped into one of the worst recessions in modern history, triggered by unprecedented lockdowns all over the world. Panic reaction in markets in March 2020 led to one of the sharpest crashes in market history. But, starting April, markets started to climb up steadily aided by the unprecedented liquidity infusion by the leading central banks of the world, led by the Fed. The Discovery of vaccines to contain the pandemic and Fed's declared ultra-loose monetary stance to keep interest rates near zero through the end of 2023 gave fodder to the bulls which kept on charging. Globally markets scaled newer peaks. The economy-market disconnect was conspicuous; but the organized sector, which the market represents, started doing very well, justifying the bulls.

Humongous liquidity infusion by the leading central banks (above $10 trillion) should have created inflation. But inflation had ceased to be a monetary phenomenon in the developed world for more than a decade now. Instead of pushing up the prices of goods and services, liquidity pushed up the prices of assets like stocks.

But low CPI inflation and high asset price inflation cannot sustain for long. Even though the Federal Reserve declared that it will keep rates unchanged till the end of 2023 and that it will tolerate higher inflation, the markets started fearing the return of inflation. The US 10-year bond yield, perhaps the most important macro indicator in the world which can move global financial markets, started rising to lead to a mild sell-off in February 2021 and now on May 12.

Inflation data released in the US on Wednesday showed higher-than-expected numbers. YoY CPI inflation spiked to 4.2 percent, the highest since 2008. Core inflation climbed to 3 percent, the highest since 1996. Reacting to the worse-than-expected inflation numbers, US markets corrected sharply: The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P crashed by 2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 2.67 percent, respectively. The US 10-year yield rose above 1.69 percent.

inflation: Structural or transitory?

Economists and market experts are divided on the nature of this inflation. Some see it as transitory while others fear that it will become structural. The jury is still out on this. If inflation cools off in the coming months and the present growth momentum in the global economy continues, growth will trump inflation and the markets will bounce back. On the other hand, if inflation impulses get entrenched, the bond market will push up the yields, negatively impacting equity markets. This bond bears versus equity bulls fight have many more rounds to go. Globally markets are highly correlated. So monitor the US inflation numbers, bond yields, and market movements even while tracking the COVID data and macros back home.

Second COVID wave, lower GDP estimates – dilemma for fixed income investors: Anand Nevatia of TRUST AMC

13. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Whenever the economy starts to slow down, the central bank ensures easy monetary conditions along with a low-interest rate regime.

The second wave of COVID-19 is far more severe compared to the first wave. The average daily cases are touching approximately 4 lakh a day whereas only 2.5 percent of the population is vaccinated till now. Vaccine manufacturers are expected to increase production in the coming days as the US has relaxed restrictions on the export of raw materials to manufacture vaccines.

With a complete national lockdown in March 2020, it appeared that most of India escaped the first COVID-19 wave. The national lockdown severely affected the economy as was reflected in negative growth numbers in subsequent quarters. However, this time around, the decision of the lockdown was left on the states. Of the 28 states and 8 union territories, only about 16 have declared full lockdown while the others are on partial lockdown as of May 10, 2021. We are likely to see these numbers going up in the coming days given the increasing case numbers.

Most states are allowing essential activities to continue however, the lockdown does affect businesses at varying degrees. While the non-essential establishments see business coming to a complete standstill, the establishments in the essential services also go through a lower volume of business due to various logistical issues. There is a complete loss of demand for non-essential items as people start focusing on only essentials viz. food and grocery. This leads to a significant output gap as idle production capacity far exceeds the demand in the economy. This in turn leads to the postponement of CAPEX cycles, which affects the capital goods markets as well. This singular survival focus of the people not only impacts the manufacturing sector but also the services sector. The construction sector is a highly labor-intensive sector and will remain a key factor from an employment perspective. The second wave and consequent restrictions on non-essential domestic manufacturing could adversely affect exports.

While the GST collections until April 2021 (reflecting activity of March 2021) have been record-breaking, lower numbers are expected in the coming months as the economy starts reflecting the impact of lockdowns.

Post the first COVID-19 wave, as lockdowns were being lifted partially, some revival was witnessed largely due to the pent-up demand in the economy. A big contributor towards this revival was also the strong demand witnessed in the rural economy as rural India was largely able to avoid the dreaded virus. A key difference in the second wave is that this time rural India is also witnessing a large number of cases, and the impact is expected to be much larger as health facilities there are much lesser as compared to towns.

The coming months will start reflecting the impact of lockdowns in the economy and as a proactive measure, we also saw the Reserve Bank of India announcing a slew of measures to combat this expected slowdown in the last week. The true damage of COVID-19 induced lockdowns will be only realized once the pandemic starts to ebb away, however, in anticipation, we have had multiple agencies lowering their growth estimates for FY22.

Whenever the economy starts to slow down, the central bank ensures easy monetary conditions along with a low-interest rate regime. The RBI had brought down interest rates to record lows to combat the COVID-19 induced slowdown and had flushed the system with surplus liquidity. As the Indian economy had started showing some signs of revival, the RBI had started to withdraw some of this surplus liquidity but the impact of the second wave has made the central bank once again reassure the markets that it would maintain an accommodative stance for "as long as necessary" and till it witnesses durable growth in the economy.

The investors in the fixed income markets can therefore expect rates to remain low for at least a few quarters more before the rate cycle starts to reverse. The Indian Debt Capital markets have witnessed significant bouts of volatility in the last couple of years, be it market-driven or at times due to regulatory changes. The rates in the up to 1-year segment are too low and unattractive whereas the volatility on the longer end of the curve is something that is unpalatable for fixed income investors. In such scenarios, it would be prudent to lock investments into the tax-efficient roll-down products that not only present a natural hedge against a rising rate scenario but, also protect the investments from intermittent volatility.

Share Market Closing Note

12. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Benchmark indices fell 1 percent on May 12 on the back of weak global cues.

At close, the Sensex was down 471.01 points or 0.96% at 48690.80, and the Nifty was down 154.30 points or 1.04% at 14696.50. About 1571 shares have advanced, 1443 shares declined, and 151 shares are unchanged.

Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, IndusInd Bank, and HUL were among the top losers on the Nifty. Gainers included Tata Motors, Titan Company, Maruti Suzuki, Power Grid Corp, and UPL.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty PSU Bank index rose over 3 percent, while Nifty Bank, metal, and energy indices fell 1-3 percent.

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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 47595. If it manages to trade and sustain above 47620 levels then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trades below 47520 levels then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:1.10 PM

The very slow movement is there in the market today. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14780 levels then some upmove is expected and below 14760 levels some decline is possible. Currently, the nifty spot is trading at 14771.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 801. If it breaks and trades below 800 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 802.50 level then some further up move can be seen in it.

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Topic :- Time:12.20 PM

Just In:

Covaxin recommended by an expert panel for phase 2/3 trials on 2 to 18-years old.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14760 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14720 levels then some decline can follow. 14700 to act as spot support.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex dips 450 points; financials, IT stocks slip

2. Indias daily Covid deaths rise by record 4,205, says health ministry

3. Sebi plans to ease post-IPO lock-in for promoters, amend the definition

4. Covid-19 in numbers Cases 23,340,938 | Deaths 254,197 | Vaccination 175,235,991

5. L&Ts Q4 revenue expected to grow on the back of higher execution

6. State Bank of Indias Padmakumar M Nair named as CEO of proposed bad bank

7. Godrej Consumer soars 15% on Sudhir Sitapatis appointment as MD and CEO

8. Pipeline outage causes US gasoline supply crunch, panic buying

9. Siemens surges 10%, hits new high on strong March quarter results

10. Venkys (India) rallies 10%, hits 52-week high post Q4 results

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

Nifty is highly rangebound. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14760 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14720 levels then some decline can follow in it.

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Topic :- Time:10.10 AM

After the negative opening nifty is showing some strength. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14740 levels then expect some upmove and if it breaks and trade below 14700 levels then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic:- Results on May 12

Asian Paints, Lupin, UPL, Apollo Tyres, Tata Power, Avadh Sugar & Energy, Birla Corporation, Borosil Renewables, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries, GRM Overseas, Happiest Minds Technologies, HG Infra Engineering, Jindal Steel & Power, JSW Ispat Special Products, Kaycee Industries, Kennametal India, Khaitan Chemicals & Fertilizers, Mahindra Lifespace Developers, Mid East Portfolio Management, Orient Electric, Palash Securities, Pidilite Industries, Prince Pipes and Fittings, PTL Enterprises, Sagar Cements, Saregama India, SIL Investments, Sonata Software, Swiss Military Consumer Goods, Thambi Modern Spinning Mills, Trigyn Technologies, UPL, Vaibhav Global, Vardhman Concrete, Vikas WSP, Voltas and Yasho Industries will release quarterly earnings on May 12.

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Topic:- Stocks in News

Pennar Industries: SAIF India IV FII Holdings sold 31,81,239 equity shares (2.24 percent shareholding) via an open market transaction on May 7, reducing stake to 6.30 percent from 8.54 percent earlier.

Linde India: The company reported a higher consolidated profit at Rs 303.2 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 39 crore in Q4FY20; revenue rose to Rs 441.4 crore from Rs 377.2 crore YoY.

Kalpataru Power Transmission: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 174 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 31 crore in Q4FY20; revenue jumped to Rs 4,086 crore from Rs 3,527 crore YoY.

Infosys: The company announced a strategic collaboration with Britvic to accelerate its digital strategy.

Siemens: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 334.4 crore in Q2FY21 against Rs 175.7 crore in Q2FY20; revenue increased to Rs 3,483.7 crore from Rs 2,640.2 crore YoY.

Godrej Consumer Products: The company reported sharply higher consolidated profit at Rs 365.84 crore in Q4FY21 against Rs 229.9 crore in Q4FY20; revenue rose to Rs 2,730.74 crore from Rs 2,153.80 crore YoY.

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Topic:- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 12 May 2021:

Nifty is likely to trade volatile in a range. Another big breakout is likely to happen very soon in the market. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 14900 levels then expect some upmove in the market however 14950-14960 levels will act as good resistance for the market. Nifty spot if breaks and trade below 14800 level then some decline can follow in the market. Please note this is just an opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

Indian April fuel demand dips, coronavirus wave clouds outlook

12. May 2021 Sandeep Stock Market Research (0)

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Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, fell 9.4% to 17.01 million tonnes from March, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed on Tuesday.

India's April fuel demand slipped from the previous month as the world's third-largest oil consumer bore the brunt of raging coronavirus infections, with the prospect of further restrictions weighing on the outlook.

Consumption of fuel, a proxy for oil demand, fell 9.4% to 17.01 million tonnes from March, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas showed on Tuesday.

On a yearly basis, demand surged 81.5% from April 2020 lows, when consumption plunged to the lowest since 2006 as coronavirus restrictions during India's first wave-battered economy. This represents the biggest year-on-year increase since data going back to about 1999.

"India's second wave of virus infections and varying containment measures provides an uncertain outlook for the fuel demand," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA said.

India is nearing 400,000 infections a day and the second surge has increased calls for a nationwide lockdown and forced many states to impose tougher restrictions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resistance to a full lockdown has supported consumption in the short term, Moya said.

Fuel demand had reached pre-pandemic levels of around 18.8 million tonnes in March, the highest level since end-2019.

However, the pandemic has led the country's top state oil refiners to reduce processing runs and crude imports, company officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

This trend is likely to extend into May as Indian refineries are reducing their refinery runs, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that once mobility restrictions were lifted, demand should recovery swiftly.

Diesel consumption, a key parameter linked to economic growth in India, fell 7.5% to 6.68 million tonnes from the previous month but surged 105.5% year-on-year.

Gasoline, or petrol, sales fell 13.1% to 2.38 million tonnes in April- the lowest level since August 2020, and were 145% higher compared with the same period a year ago.

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