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Finance Ministry releases Rs 13,386 crore to 25 states as grant to RLBs

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Tied grants are released to the agricultural local bodies (RLBs) for improving two services -- Sanitation and maintenance of open-defecation free (ODF) status and provide of beverage , rainwater harvesting and water recycling.

The Finance Ministry on Tuesday said it's released about Rs 13,386 crore to 25 states for providing grants to rural local bodies (RLBs).

Tied grants are released to the agricultural local bodies (RLBs) for improving two services -- Sanitation and maintenance of open-defecation free (ODF) status and provide of beverage , rainwater harvesting and water recycling.

“The Department of Expenditure, Ministry of Finance, has on Monday released an amount of Rs 13,385.70 crore to 25 States for providing grants to the agricultural Local Bodies,” the ministry said during a statement.

Also, Read | Investment Diversification with Commodity Mutual Funds

This grant-in-aid is that the first instalment of Tied grants of the year 2021-22. The grants are released as per the recommendations of the 15th Finance Commission.

Tied grants are meant to make sure the supply of additional funds to the agricultural local bodies over and above the funds allocated by the Centre and states for sanitation and beverage under the Centrally Sponsored Schemes.


Mark Mobius suggests holding 10% in physical gold, says currencies globally to be devalued

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Mobius, who has over 30 years of experience at Franklin Templeton Investments, has cited the increased government expenditure in form of pandemic stimulus as the reason behind a likely devaluation of currencies.

File image of Mark Mobius (Source: CNBC)

Investors should keep 10 percent of their portfolio in physical gold as currencies across the world are set for a serious devaluation, veteran investor Mark Mobius was reported as saying on August 30.

Mobius, who has over 30 years of experience at Franklin Templeton Investments, has cited the increased government expenditure in sort of pandemic stimulus because of the reason behind a possible devaluation of currencies.

An "incredible amount" of cash would be printed thanks to the stimulus, thanks to which the currency devaluation globally are going to be quite significantly next year, Mobius told Bloomberg.

Also, ReadInvestment Diversification with Commodity Mutual Funds

Considering the above scenario, "10 percent of investments should be put into physical gold" at this stage, he said.

It is getting to be very, excellent to possess physical gold that you simply can access immediately without the danger of the govt confiscating all the gold,” Mobius was quoted as saying.

Mobius' remarks are available the backdrop of bullion rates decelerating following the worldwide rollout of vaccines. The rates had soared to record-high levels last year when lockdowns were imposed to combat the health crisis.

Spot bullion head reached $2,075 a few years ago, and has since, lost four percent of its value. In India, gold prices had breached Rs 56,000 in August last year, and are currently hovering around the Rs 50,000-mark.

Most economies across the planet have increased their expenditure so as to stimulate the economy jolted by COVID-19. The fiscal stimulus has boosted balance sheets maintained by central banks globally, resulting in inflation and a better fiscal deficit.


The Private Market Show | How to access global investments?

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In this episode, Jagruti shares her experience as an investor from a global perspective and shares her advice to avoid some pitfalls in angel investing. Tune in to the podcast for more

Private markets explained

This week, on the "The Private Market Show," we've Jagruti Bhikha. Donning multiple hats, Jagruti is an angel investor and therefore the Founder CEO of rising Together VC.

Rise Together aims to make a community of 100k angel investors who will provide financial and strategic partnerships to entrepreneurs across the planet.

In this episode, she shares her experience as an investor from a worldwide perspective, how she exited from her first investment and shares her advice on the way to avoid a number of the pitfalls associated with angel investing.

Jagruti also talks about how investors shouldn't be influenced by fear to participate within the innovation economy and her experience in investing as a lady. to understand more, tune to the podcast.

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9.5% GDP growth in FY22 achievable, above that will be difficult, says Satish Ramanathan of JM Financial

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Sectors such as financial advisory, insurance look attractive from a long-term point of view, Ramanathan says Satish Ramanathan, director & Chief Investment Officer- Equity, JM Financial Asset Management, says despite various lockdown-like restrictions and shortages that the businesses face, a 9.5 percent growth is achievable.

A high number would be difficult, as a large chunk of the service economy has been hit by the coronavirus, he says. So, a 9-9.5 percent GDP growth would be excellent news.

In an interview with Moneycontrol's Sunil Shankar Matkar, Ramanathan says investors should stick with their objective of long-term asset allocation across fixed income, equity, and other asset classes as suggested by their financial planner. Edited excerpts:

The market is at a record high. Which are the key drivers? does one think the rally will sustain? does one expect a serious correction within the coming months?

The Nifty continues to scale new highs, while midcap and smallcap indices have already experienced a pullback. The breadth of the market continues to be narrow and therefore the advance-decline ratio suggests that markets are tentative.

While markets and the economy are interrelated, they are doing not necessarily move together. From the Indian economy perspective, we believe that a big amount of restructuring has taken place over the past few years, setting the ground for a replacement cycle of consumption, CAPEX, and growth. the govt has been prudent and tried avoiding being too populist and has actually raised its tax levels to fund CAPEX and supply relief for Covid.

We believe that structurally all elements are in situ for corporate performance to still improve from here on. Free cash flows have increased also as debt levels have come down.

Benefits of lower interest rates are now trickling to midcap and smallcap companies also and that we are witnessing deleveraging by small companies also . However, market valuations are at levels where there's no room for disappointments, and considering that there's a big retail element during this rally, volatility is to be expected.


What should be the investor strategy now that the market is at a replacement high?


We recommend that investors stick with their objective of long-term asset allocation across fixed income and equity and other asset classes as suggested by their financial planner. We don't recommend altering weights during a significant manner.


Sure, there could also be bouts of correction which can be used as a chance to extend equity allocation, but is it a time to sell midcaps and move it to large caps— the solution is on a structural basis—not now.

We recommend investors still invest in a systematic manner either through SIPs or the other preferred route. Corrections are often either time-based or value-based and that we reckon that it's going to be more time- based this point. Lump-sum investments are often considered when there are significant moves within the market or into value-based themes as and when the environment is true.

Which are the sectors that have yet to participate within the run? Should investors invest in those sectors now?

Almost all sectors have participated during this rally, which has extended over 16 months now. we've had several reasons for every one of them moving up but the essential premise was that Indian companies will see a significant rise in pricing power and demand both internal and external. tons of this has played out and that we are now experiencing inflation in input costs eroding margins.

Further shortages, thanks to several reasons, have also caused output to drop resulting in some earnings downgrades also.

We will have an interest in investing in long-term sustainable sectors with an extended runway of growth. we discover sectors like financial advisory, insurance, and other such sectors attractive from a long-term point of view.

The primary market has been quite active for quite a year now and tons of companies have filed draft documents for IPOs in 2021. what proportion of money is going to be raised through these offers in 2021 and 2022?

A healthy IPO market is that the key to the long-run vibrancy of capital markets. New businesses and entrepreneurs who re-define business are key to improving capital allocation efficiency. therein sense, we believe that the IPO market which wasn't active for nearly a decade may come and sustain.

Valuations could also be debatable and there's an opportunity that one overpays during a fanatical market but that doesn't change the viability of the underlying business.

So as always, we'd like to try to do our homework before choosing which company to take a position in and know the underlying drivers of growth instead of using the IPO as a lottery.

Do you think the Indian economy can grow in double digits in FY22 against the RBI's growth forecast of 9.5 percent?


Given the varied lockdowns and shortages that the businesses face on several fronts, we believe that a 9.5 percent growth is achievable. To anticipate variety much high than this is able to be difficult, as long as large parts of our service economy are impacted. So, we are quite happy to possess a 9-9.5 percent GDP growth this year.

What we'd like to understand is that if there's an extra outbreak of Covid and therefore the damages thereof. Our vaccination program is proceeding smoothly without major hiccups and it's reasonable to assume that a big portion of our population is roofed with two doses by December 2021. this could cause some sustainability of growth.

Warren Buffett celebrates his birthday on August 30. Which of his investment strategies do you wish the most?

There are tons to find out from Warren Buffett's philosophy and elegance of investing but the one thing that impresses me most is—"never invest during a business you can't understand". Simple because it seems, it's deeply profound. As you ask questions, a variety of things start falling in situ and therefore the decision to shop for or to not buy becomes clearer. Simplicity and customary sense are usually underrated in investing.

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Investment Diversification with Commodity Mutual Funds

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In the article below we will study Investment Diversification with Commodity Mutual Funds

 

Do you know about investment diversification with commodity mutual funds? Well, this is a great topic to discuss!

We might all be familiar with the basic investment rule of never ever investing all our hard-earned money in a single product in the stock market - it would be utterly foolish to do so and risk the chance of losing it all on a bad day. Do not even consider putting all your money into the equal segment of stocks.  Asset allocation variation is an uncomplicated theory to comprehend. What is not effortless is making your mind up where to stretch your capital.  And for an assortment of rationales, a good number of citizens do not deem commodity mutual funds. This is quite natural human behavior.

Having a monetary analyst

For the most part the public tends to place every single one of their asset or retreat wealth in the stock market.  They may in one case put in money in the corporation they attend, or else pay money for stocks of businesses that they admire and have faith in (mostly large corporations), such as Microsoft, Toyota,  Sony, or else any corporation with the purpose of being well-liked.  Or else they are using an agency domicile for counsel and decide on and prefer from the agencies propositions.  Proviso they have a huge amount of cash in investments, they almost certainly have a monetary analyst. This consultant is supposed to encompass some of their cash in the bond market. This is all fine given that the investment is resonant in its diversification tactic. We can now safely say that the stock market is effortless to comprehend and for the most part people are contented with verifying their stock's feat at home on the internet. The bond market is a touch more hard-hitting to go behind everyday, and for the most part people simply pay money for the bond and hang around for their agent or counselor to suggest a transformation. 

About commodity mutual funds

It should be well-documented and remembered that the commodity and commodity mutual fund market is not exactly a cinch to start off with. The values of expensive items like fuel and bullion are easy to follow because they are a team of the for the most part all the rage commodities. At the same time, the prices of household items and food and cash crops are not that popular. Nevertheless commodity mutual funds are a big apparatus to put in speculation diversification to several assortments. They tender speculation guard from price rises, a scrawny currency and sways in the stock market. For a greater part of the most recent times, there has been a hefty augment of spending in commodity mutual funds accomplish to the terrible presentation of the stock market. So now it becomes anybody’s guess.

Stock dealers

By way of the bulky quantity of varieties in the share and mutual fund bazaar, stock dealers habitually do not delve into or propose commodity mutual funds. They almost certainly have durably adequate moments in time moving forward their stock selection picked up in any period of time, let alone trying to sell commodity products. For that reason, you need to do your own investigation into merchandise and commodity mutual funds.  They will be able to add significance to your withdrawal finance. It may be that you will have zeroed in on commencing to keep a quantity of spare currency away. The impetus is to set aside for your brood's institution finance, or else system a sequestration version, or possibly to salt away for an initial payment on a residence.  Every single one exceptionally first-class reason and you ought to be wished many happy returns to for your judgment in the share market. Furthermore you are accepting perception on the subject of investing in mutual funds. This is an additional first-rate pronouncement. But for the fact that you pursue the stock market or be familiar with a stockbroker who you rely on and who has an excellent reputation, the mutual fund bazaar is the top verdict. Thus we have known about investment diversification with commodity mutual funds.

Fair play and transparency will determine success of National Monetisation Pipeline

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Private monopolies holding considerable sway over large swathes of infrastructure assets worth billions of dollars may result in inequitable consequences which will linger for many years

Representative Image


In ordinary parlance, for a private or a household, to ‘monetize’ something often refers to the method of earning revenues or income from a resource that will have remained idle. So, one can monetize a neighborhood of the house by letting it out and earning income from it.

There also are instances where people even let loose car parking spaces in multi-storied apartments. this is often an instance of monetizing an idle parking lot through rental or lease income while retaining ownership.

One often comes across innovative monetization samples of assets, particularly from the planet of media. as an example , one would often encounter advertisements before, during or after popular videos on YouTube. These are sometimes mentioned as ‘pre-rolls, ‘mid-rolls and ‘post-rolls’. These are samples of earning money from idle assets (in this instance time or seconds) by embedding advertisements within the videos.

From a public policy standpoint, asset monetization involves the creation of the latest sources of revenue by unlocking the worth of previously unutilized or underutilized public assets.

Internationally, it's recognized that public assets are a big resource for all economies. Monetizing these assets that the government’s control, including public corporations, is widely held to be a really important, but inadequately explored, public finance option for managing public resources.

Many public sector assets are sub-optimally utilised and will be appropriately monetized to make greater financial leverage and value for the businesses , and of the equity that the govt has invested in them.

The objective, in theory a minimum of , of the government’s asset monetization programme, is to unlock the worth of investment made publicly assets that haven't yielded appropriate or potential returns thus far , creating yet unexplored sources of income for the corporate and its shareholders.

This would, besides yielding revenues, also contribute to a more accurate estimation of public assets which might help within the better financial management of state and public resources over time.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s asset monetization plan, which seeks to get revenues worth quite Rs 6 lakh crore may be a jumbo version of such plans.

\On August 23, minister of finance Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the govt will monetize assets worth Rs 6 lakh-crore between 2021-22 and 2024-25 under the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) scheme. the govt will still own the assets being given out under the NMP and can be returned to the govt after a period of your time .

According to the NITI Aayog, the government’s premier policy think-tank, asset monetisation under this program will involve various brownfield infrastructure assets across roads, railways, shipping, aviation, power, telecom, oil, and gas, and warehousing sectors.

“Asset monetization, supported the philosophy of ‘Creation through Monetisation’, will tap institutional investment and long-term patient capital into stable mature assets, in turn, generating financial resources for brand spanking new infrastructure asset creation,” it said in its two-volume guidebook on the NMP.

The key phrases here are ‘institutional investment’ and ‘long-term patient capital, something that the minister also underlined when she said that the govt won't unload any assets, but only utilize them during a better manner to get greater value and unlock resources for the economy.

On the face of it, a minimum of in terms of theoretical intent, there aren’t too many gaps within the plan. Given the ambitious fundraising targets through the asset monetization plan, one would be tempted to assume that the govt and public sector undertakings will rest on Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) to get revenues from these assets.

There has been a fairly successful demonstration of the proof of concept recently. In April, State-owned PowerGrid Corp of India Ltd (PGCIL) launched the general public offer of the primary Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) ever by a PSU.

InvITs are collective investment vehicles like mutual funds that allow direct investment by individuals and institutions in infrastructure projects to earn a little portion of the income as a return. InvITs, which are governed by the Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) enable infrastructure developers to monetize assets by pooling multiple assets under one trust structure.

The mega asset monetization plan, if properly structured, can enable significant funds to be due to private equity players into India’s infrastructure space through InvITs.

The key aspect, however, is going to be the planning of those InvITs. Private monopolies holding considerable sway over large swathes of infrastructure assets worth billions of dollars may result in inequitable consequences which will linger for many years. the principles of handing out these assets will necessarily need to be founded on principles of fair play and transparency as non-negotiable doctrines.

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Centre buys record 874 lakh tonnes of paddy thus far at MSP for Rs 1.65 lakh crore

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Paddy procurement within the ongoing KMS 2020-21 is constant smoothly within the procuring states. Kharif's marketing season runs from October to September.

 Representative Image. (Reuters)

The Centre has procured a record 873.68 lakh tonnes of paddy thus far within the 2020-21 marketing year ending September for nearly Rs 1.65 lakh crore.

Paddy procurement has reached at an all-time high level, surpassing the previous high of 773.45 lakh tonnes in KMS (Kharif Marketing Season) 2019-20, a politician statement said.

"About 129.03 lakh farmers have already been benefited from the continued KMS procurement operations with MSP value of Rs 1,64,951.77 crore," it said.

Paddy procurement within the ongoing KMS 2020-21 is constant smoothly within the procuring states. Kharif's marketing season runs from October to September.

The Centre has purchased 873.68 lakh tonnes of paddy (including Kharif crop 707.69 lakh tonnes and Rabi crop 165.99 lakh tonnes) till August 23 against 763.01 lakh tonnes within the corresponding period of the previous year.

The food ministry said that the rabi marketing season (RMS) 2021-22 has concluded in wheat procuring states.

Till August 18, a record quantity of 433.44 lakh tonnes of wheat has been procured as against 389.93 lakh tonnes within the year-ago period.

"About 49.20 lakh farmers have already been benefited from the continued RMS procurement operations with MSP value of Rs 85,603.57 crore," the statement said.

The Rabi Marketing Season runs from April to March. However, the majority of wheat procurement is completed during the April-June period.

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Share Market Closing Note

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Benchmark indices ended higher with Nifty above 16,600 led by the metal, pharma, banks, and power stocks.

At close, the Sensex was up 403.19 points or 0.73% at 55,958.98, and the Nifty was up 128.10 points or 0.78% at 16,624.60. About 2067 shares have advanced, 969 shares declined, and 122 shares are unchanged.


Bajaj Finserv, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, and Hindalco Industries were the top Nifty gainers. Britannia Industries, HDFC, Infosys, Asian Paints, and Nestle were among the top losers.

BSE midcap and smallcap indices gained over 1 percent each. Among sectors, except IT and FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the green.

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Topic :- Time:3.00 PM

Nifty spot if holds above 16600 on closing basis then expect some good sharp upmove in coming session and if it closes below above mentioned level then some sluggish movement can follow in the market. Avoid open position for tomorrow.

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Topic :- Time:2.30 PM

CRUDEOIL Trading View:

CRUDEOIL is trading at 4920. If it manages to trade and sustain above 4925 levels then expect some upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 4900 level then some decline can follow in it.


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Topic :- Time:2.00 PM

Nifty is flying high and Reliance has also joined the race. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16620 level then expect some quick upmove and if it breaks and trade below 16580 level then some decline can follow in the market.


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Topic :- Time:1.45 PM

Just In:

Home loans demand rise 26% in Jan-June.


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Topic :- Time:1.30 PM

GOLD Trading View:

GOLD is trading at 47493.If it breaks and trade below 47480 level then expect some further decline in GOLD and if it manages to trade and sustain above 47540 level then some upmove can be seen.

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Topic :- Time:1.20 PM

Bajaj Finserv gets SEBI approval for mutual fund business:

Financial services company Bajaj Finserv on Tuesday announced that the Indian market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has given its in-principal nod to the company for sponsoring a Mutual Fund. The company would also be setting an Asset Management Company (AMC).

Accordingly, the company would be setting up an Asset Management Company (AMC) and the Trustee Company, directly or indirectly i.e., itself or through its subsidiary in accordance with applicable SEBI Regulations and other applicable laws, Bajaj Finserv said in an exchange filing.

Shares of Bajaj Finserv were trading over 3% higher to ₹15,785 per share on the BSE in Tuesdays first half of the trading session. The stock has surged more than 75% this year (year-to-date) whereas its up over 140% in one year. Bajaj Finserv is focused on lending, asset management, wealth management and insurance services. 

The company was formed in 2007 as a result of its demerger from Bajaj Auto Limited to further the groups interest in financial services. Bajaj Finserv is the holding company for the businesses dealing with financial services of the Bajaj Group.

Rahul Sharma, Co-Founder, Equity99 said, The company plans to offer all financial services and deliver seamlessly through an app-based platform. The business would leverage the digital platform to provide low-cost, high-value services, and the company is expected to benefit from synergies & its customer database.

For the quarter ending June 2021, Bajaj Finserv reported an over 31% decline in consolidated net profit at ₹833 crore. The company had reported a net profit of ₹1,215 crore in the same quarter of the preceding fiscal. The consolidated total income also plunged to ₹13,949 crore in Q1FY22 as against ₹14,192 crore in the year-ago quarter. 

The SEBI approval for the mutual fund business for Bajaj Finserv comes at a time when MFs have become a popular mode of investment with the industrys assets under management (AUM) surging to an all-time high of ₹35 lakh crore in July-end.

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Topic :- Time:1.00 PM

Nifty is rising and is waiting for Reliance Industries to take market further up. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16580 level then expect some quick upmove in it and if it breaks and trade below 16540 level then some decline can follow in it. Once Reliance stock begins its wild run then nifty is likely to test 16600-16700 levels soon.

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Topic :- Time:12.30 PM

COPPER Trading View:

COPPER is trading at 706.80.If it breaks and trade below 706.00 level then expect some decline in it and if it manages to trade and sustain above 707.20 level then some upmove can follow in COPPER.

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Topic :- Time:12.10 PM

Just In:

Chemplast Sanmar shares list at Rs 525, a 3% discount to issue price.

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Topic :- Time:12.00 PM

Nifty is trading in range. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16560 level then expect some quick upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16520 level then some decline can follow in the market. Use all lows as an opportunity to go long in the market.

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Topic :- Time:11.30 AM

News Wrap Up:

1. Sensex jumps 150 points; Metal, PSU Bank indices rally

2. Bajaj Finserv gets Sebi nod to set up mutual fund; stock hits new high

3. Tata Sons seeks shareholders nod to raise Rs 40,000 cr in debt

4. DLF 3.0: Realtor ventures into new territories after four decades

5. FM Sitharaman gives Infosys September 15 deadline to fix I-T portal snags

6. Skymet dilutes southwest monsoon forecast for 2021 to below-normal

7. US FDA grants full approval to Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine

8. Zomato share price falls as lock-in period for anchor investors end

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Topic :- Time:11.00 AM

After positive start nifty is still going good. Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16560 level then expect it to rise further and if it breaks and trade below 16520 level then some decline can be seen in the market.

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Topic :- Stocks under F&O ban on NSE

1. Canara Bank

2. Vodafone Idea

3. NMDC

4. Sun TV Network

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Topic :- Stocks in News

Sical Logistics: The fifth meeting of the committee of creditors has been scheduled for August 25 through video conferencing.

Nandan Denim: Brickworks Ratings India has revised the outlook of the rating of long-term facilities of the company.

KPI Global: The company has successfully commissioned a new capacity of 5.44 MW (DC) in its existing solar power plant at Village-Sudi & Tancha, Ta-Amod, District- Bharuch.

Atul Auto: Credit rating agency CRISIL has assigned CRISIL A-/ Stable (downgraded from CRISIL A/Stable) to long-term bank facilities and CRISIL A2+ (downgraded from CRISIL Al) to short term bank facilities of the company.

Sanghvi Movers: ICRA upgraded the long-term rating to ICRA A from ICRA A- and also upgraded the short-term rating to ICRA A1 from ICRA A2-.

Eicher Motors: Siddhartha Lal has been reappointed as managing director of the company with effect from May 1, 2021.

NR Agarwal Industries: Production at Unit 2 (writing and printing) of the company has been temporarily shut down due to the lack of market orders.

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Topic :- Nifty Opening Note

Indian Stock Market Trading View For 24 Aug, 2021:

Stock specific action is expected in the market. Global cues will play critical role.

Nifty spot if manages to trade and sustain above 16560 level then expect some upmove in the market and if it breaks and trade below 16440 level then some decline can be seen in the market. Please note this is just opening view and should not be considered as the view for the whole day.

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MPC’s October meet may even see more active debate on definition, pace, mode of accommodation

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The minutes of the August meeting was of particular interest due to Professor Varma's 'dissent', the second in one year. “We expect VRRRs to be gradually increased further, either on tenor or amounts, to normalise liquidity skewness,” says Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Institutional Equities desk.

The August minutes of the Federal Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the met on August 4, 5 and 6 were more hawkish than the policy itself. The MPC determines the policy rate of interest required to realize the inflation target.

The dissenters, Professor Varma and Dr Saggar and Dr Goyal, made a case for the co-existence of (liquidity/policy) normalisation and an accommodative stance.

The other takeaway was that the expansion narrative was largely similar across the board, with members agreeing on the necessity for durable growth, though some split emerged on the persistence of inflation risks. We see FY22 inflation 30-35bps less than what the RBI had projected.

Do not see reverse repo rate hike

The October MPC may even see more active debate on definition/pace/mode of accommodation. We expect variable reverse repo rates (VRRRs) to be gradually increased further, either on tenor or amounts. We don't see a reverse repo rate hike this year and see the RBI maintaining its preference for curve flattening.

The dissenters argued for a more judicious forward guidance.

The minutes of the August meeting was of particular interest due to Professor Varma's 'dissent', the second in one year. The unease of Professor Varma arose from his assessment that:

(1) COVID is pervasive and yet impacting only a pocket of the economy. But a generic accommodative monetary policy can’t be targeted (unlike fiscal) and thus it's largely fuelling asset inflation. Forward guidance and monetary stance are getting counter-productive and can only increase inflation risk premium also as term premium.

(2) MPC's inflation target is 4 per cent, not 5 per cent, not 6 per cent. The tolerance band is to permit for estimation errors and using this flexibility overly will only cause inflation-targeting failures later (reminds us of Dr Patra’s narrative during former Governor Urjit Patel's days).

(3) Disagreement with the extent of the reverse repo rate, though it doesn't fall into the MPC’s purview. He argued that a much-needed phased normalisation of the corridor would increase the MPC’s ability to stay the repo rate at 4 per cent for a extended period.

Interestingly, the opposite silent noises seen within the June minutes made their way again. Dr Saggar, while emphasising the necessity for durable growth and policy accommodation, admitted that the danger of policy errors on either side remains, given the massive uncertainty on growth and inflation also as policy trade-offs.

He thus made a case for policy agility, should the necessity arise. He later involved the necessity to avoid inflation risks when credit demand improves – swiftly making a case for non-disruptive gradual unwinding “when the time comes” – lest making markets complacent of flush liquidity.

We even had the standard dove, Dr Goyal, using the word ‘normalisation’, whenever it starts – extending the argument that other (liquidity) normalisation can start even in an accommodative stance.

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The inflation transience continues but risks remain

The overall inflation and growth narrative was largely an equivalent because the August policy. But there have been mentions about the risks of inflation (and inflationary expectations) becoming more persistent from the so-called transient supply shocks and margin increases.

Case against higher administered fuel prices

The case against higher administered fuel prices was again stressed by a couple of members. whilst growth remains sub-par, Dr Patra noted that core inflation may stay sticky, given the COVID-related margin increases and tax hikes, even when some supply-side mismatches were easing.

The growth narrative was largely similar across the board, stressing on need for durability of recovery. Even the dissenter, Prof. Varma, agreed for a repo rate at 4 per cent on the rear of sub-par growth, albeit arguing (along with Prof Goyal) that policy accommodation and liquidity normalisation can co-exist.

Governor Shaktikanta Das, on the opposite hand, argued that the risk- reward still favours maintaining congenial financial conditions and monetary boosters.

Emerging differences may have implications for the October MPC.

While the predominant view remains the necessity to support recovery, the (dis)comfort with inflation dynamics is certainly dividing the MPC members.

The overall tone of the minutes is slightly more hawkish than the policy itself, but we still think state-based actions and guidance will lead the show within the end. We see inflation to be lower in FY22 (Emkay: 5.35 per cent; RBI: 5.7 per cent), which could give the RBI more room to manage expectations.

Interestingly, the core RBI MPC on net seems more convinced that normalising policy early would be an error – as was also seen within the recent bulletin authored by Dr Patra. It also argued the limited role of monetary policy to influence supply-driven inflation and therefore the more involved role of economic policy within the same.

The August minutes do little to vary our view that the improved VRRRs to mop up liquidity aren't to be seen as a reversal of policy stance but simply the normalization of liquidity skewness. We expect VRRRs to be gradually increased further, either on tenor or amounts, to normalize liquidity skewness. We don't see a reverse repo hike this civil year . We reckon the RBI will still strive to repair the artificially skewed yield curve and maintain its preference for curve flattening.


Foreign direct investments rise to $12.1 billion in May: Piyush Goyal

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"India has received the very best ever FDI inflow in 2020-21. It surged by 10 per cent to USD 81.72 billion and FDI during May 2021 is USD 12.1 billion, i.e. 203 per cent above May 2020," he said while addressing a gathering of various industry associations on promoting exports


Foreign direct investments into the country is on the increase , jumping to USD 12.1 billion in May this year, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said.

He also said the govt is functioning on a mission mode to realize an exports target of USD 400 billion in 2021-22.

"India has received the very best ever FDI inflow in 2020-21. It surged by 10 per cent to USD 81.72 billion and FDI during May 2021 is USD 12.1 billion, i.e. 203 per cent above May 2020," he said while addressing a gathering of various industry associations on promoting exports.

He said that exports are recording healthy growth and through August 1-14, the outbound shipments grew 71 per cent over 2020-21 and 23 per cent over 2019-20.

According to the minister, India's average applied import tariff (duty) has dropped to fifteen percent in 2020 from 17.6 per cent in 2019, and therefore the country's applied tariffs are way below the bound rate of fifty .8 percent (permissible limit under the planet Trade Organization).

Talking about employment, he said quite 54,000 startups were providing about 5.5 lakh jobs and over 20 lakh jobs are going to be created by 50,000 new startups within the next five years.

"It is time for our industry to expand our capacity, capability and commitment to develop resilient global supply chains," he said, adding that the Centre expects that the Indian industry should suggest areas for intervention through research, handholding of exporters/ manufacturers, and deeper engagement with states and Missions.

During the meeting, industry suggested steps like increasing export competitiveness, addressing logistic problems, active role of states in building capacity of exporters and developing international markets for Indian products.

They also suggested the inclusion of pharma and chemicals under Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) scheme.

Industry body PHDCCI's President Sanjay Aggarwal said these sectors are essential to realize the target of USD 400 billion exports and "it is therefore requested to think about these sectors in RoDTEP scheme".

"The government has budgeted only Rs 17,000 crore for a scheme that's alleged to reimburse embedded levies paid on inputs consumed in exports in FY'22. it's far but the government's initial estimate of Rs 50,000 crore annually . The allow the RoDTEP scheme, including all tariff lines, got to be increased," he said.

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