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Investor sentiment seems to have turned positive again as the Sensex climbed back to mount 40,000 after nearly a five-month break and hit a new record high of 40,345.

Slowdown worries, weak earnings in June quarter, FII selling, NPA concerns among other factors ruined investor confidence and dragged the index to 36,100 levels, on an intraday basis, from the peak of 40,308 on June 3, 2019.

The massive correction got the acknowledgement of the government, which introduced a slew of measure to revive the economy, as well as, earning of the India Inc. In the two months after touching the low of 36,100 levels on August 23, the index gained more than 3,900 points.

The market generally factors in all the positive and negative news sooner rather than later. Hence, one could say that the current rally is on optimism that the economy could recover from the second half of FY20 on the back of a good festive season and in line to better-than-expected earnings in September quarter.

But looking at the stock price data, the "hope rally" was driven only by few stocks and it was not a broad-based run. In fact, the BSE Midcap index fell 3.3 percent and Smallcap index dropped 10 percent in nearly five months.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that this "hope rally" was driven by only a few stocks and was not broad-based. In fact, the BSE Midcap index fell 3.3 percent and Smallcap index dropped 10 percent in nearly five months.

In the five months it took to reclaim Mount 40k, little more than 30 percent stocks in the BSE500 index were in a positive terrain.

Among those 30 percent, around half of stocks gave double-digit returns, of which, the top 20 stocks rallied between 30 percent and 99 percent.

Adani Green Energy, Shipping Corporation of India, HDFC AMC, Reliance Nippon, Berger Paints, Dr Lal PathLabs, Avenue Supermarts, ICICI Securities, SBI Life, HDFC Life, MCX, GIC Re, Colgate etc were among those 20 stocks.

However, on the other side, more than 200 stocks fell double-digit with top 35 stocks declining over 50 percent which included most of the companies that faced high debt, corporate governance, asset quality concerns etc.

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The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% as expected, but altered language in its post-meeting statements and indicated that it may pause rate cuts from here.

The Fed removed a key clause that said the Fed was committed to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that central bank officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

“We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.3% to 97.127 by 1:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT).

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. remained uncertain after Chile said it is canceling the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month due to ongoing protests. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to meet on the sidelines and possibly sign phase one of a trade deal.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2927 after the U.K. Parliament voted this week to hold an early general election on Dec. 12.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.2% to 108.66. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair jumped 0.4% and 0.6%.

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The Indian market has been witnessing volatility in the last few session as the earnings season kicked off for the Indian Inc. Concerns over US-China trade deal, stressed financial sector and expectation of a further stimulus by the government have also added kept investors on their toes.

Analysts expect the earnings to remain tepid this quarter. Meanwhile, some of the companies have already declared their earnings for the quarter ended September 2019.HUL, Infosys and Avenue Supermarts are the three companies which got a pat on the back from the brokerages after their Q2FY20 results.

Avenue Supermarts

D-Mart operator, Avenue Supermarts posted a 47.54 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 322.63 crore, while revenue increased 22.26 percent to Rs 5,998.90 crore. Its EBITDA rose 32.3 percent to Rs 515.4 crore and EBITDA margin was up 8.66 percent.

ICICIdirect reiterated reduce rating on the stock with a revised target price to Rs 1,700 from previous target price of Rs 1,450.

On the back of recent corporate tax rate cut, it revises earnings estimates upwards by 15 percent.

Hindustan Unilever

FMCG major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) registered 21 percent year-on-year jump in its net profit at Rs 1,848 crore. Its EBITDA was at Rs 2,443 crore, up 21 percent. The domestic consumer segment of the company grew by 7 percent with underlying volume growth at 5 percent.

Prabhudas Lilladher retained it accumulate rating but raised the target to Rs 2,083 from Rs 1,967 per share.

It has cut company's FY20 and FY21 EPS by 1.1 percent and 2.6 percent despite 5 percent volume growth and strong margin expansion on account of delayed rural recovery despite good monsoons, limited scope to increase margins from the current level and liquidity issues in trade channels.

ICICIdirect maintained its hold rating on stock with a target price of Rs 2,075.

Broking house feels that the company is best placed within the sector to use this windfall to balance between strengthening its competitive position and improving profitability.

Infosys

The company reported a 5.8 percent sequential growth in Q2FY20 with its net profit at Rs 4,019 crore. Revenue during the quarter rose 3.8 percent QoQ to Rs 22,629 crore, while in dollar terms revenue rose 2.5 percent at $3,210 million.

KR Choksey has reiterated accumulate rating on Infosys and revised target price to Rs 893 per share (previous target Rs 792) with an upside potential of 10 percent.

The brokerage house expects the company to continue this momentum

going forward as it plans to invest heavily in the expansion of digital segment in the areas like Data Analytics, Cloud computing and IoT.

ICICIdirect has maintained its hold rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 885.

It expect revenue growth to moderately surpass the upper guided band and margins are likely to see an improving trajectory from here on . They expect margins to expand to 23 percent in FY21E.

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The British pound gave back some gains on Wednesday in Asia after gaining overnight. A Bloomberg reported that the U.K. and European Union are close to agreeing on a legal draft of a Brexit deal.

The GBP/USD pair was down 0.2% to 1.2755 by 12:18 AM ET (04:18 GMT).

The pound spiked yesterday after European Michel Barnier said a draft legal text was being drawn up, and that an agreement “is still possible this week.”

“Our team(s) are working hard, and work has just started now today, this work has been intense over the weekend and yesterday, because even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult, to be frank, it is still possible this week,” Barnier told reporters in Luxembourg on Tuesday morning.

He added that “any agreement must work for everyone,” saying it is “high time to turn good intentions into a legal text.”

The deal however is dependent on Prime Minister Boris Johnson getting support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is uncertain. The two sides are racing to reach a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline, but remain optimistic that an agreement will be made by the end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index last was little changed at 98.042.

Tensions between the U.S. and China flared up again after the U.S. House passed four measures, including the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act”, on Tuesday in unanimous voice votes.

A similar bill is in front of the Senate.Beijing has threatened to retaliate if Congress passes a bill.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0964.

On the data front, the U.S. retail sales data are set to be released later in the day and are forecast to increase for a seventh straight month.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The AUD/USD pair lost 0.3% to 0.6731. The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.2% to 108.63.

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 The Chinese yuan traded lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia after a Bloomberg report sparked fresh concerns on the Sino-U.S. trade talk progress.

Risk appetite improved late last week after the U.S. and China announced a “roadmap to a phase 1 agreement” which included the suspension of a tariff increase planned for this week and a commitment from China to buy more U.S. agricultural product.

But the Chinese yuan gave up some of its earlier gains today as Beijing reportedly said it wanted more talks before agreeing to the deal, suggesting that not all the details are nailed down.

China now wants to hold more negotiations this month before agreeing to signing the deal, a Bloomberg report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The USD/CNY pair gained 0.2% to 7.0726 by 1:00 AM ET (05:00 GMT)

“We will carefully remind you that such a “promise” is worth nothing at all, and currently it looks more likely that running for president on an anti-Chinese agenda is better/smarter (for re-election purposes) than doing the opposite,” Martin Enlund and his analyst team at Nordea Markets wrote in a weekly preview.

On the data front, China reported on Tuesday that its producer price index fell by 1.2% year-on-year. It marked the steepest factory price decline July 2016, but was in line with expectations.

The consumer price index (CPI) increased 3% year-on-year in September, compared with the expectation of a 2.9% gain. Pork prices in China jumped 69.3% from a year ago. It is the major driver in the overall increase in CPI.

The country also reported weaker-than-expected trade data this week, which showed the sharpest drop in imports since 2016.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 98.137, down 0.03%.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.32.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were both little changed.

The GBP/USD pair rose 0.2% to 1.2629. Brexit developments remained in focus after the European Union showed some cool reaction to the U.K.’s proposals on resolving the Irish border-related elements of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly told EU diplomats at the weekend that the proposals represented an “untested” risk that were not acceptable, according to The Guardian.

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The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China.

The GBP/USD pair lost 0.3% to 1.2614 1:25 AM ET (05:25 GMT). The pound rose on Friday amid signs of a possible agreement on the Irish border problem.

Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done.”

Meanwhile, the yuan gained today after the U.S. paused its plan to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods this week. The USD/CNY pair lost 0.5% to 7.0538.

On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday.

That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August.

Analysts previously expected exports to decline by 3%, while imports were expected to drop by 5.2%.

China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 98.123. According to the partial trade deal Washington and Beijing reached late last week, Beijing will make large agricultural purchases worth as much as $50 billion and take steps on intellectual property, financial services and the yuan.

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.1% to 108.31.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair lost 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

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 The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union.

On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal.

It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections.

In early Asian trade on Monday, the dollar inched down to 108.36 yen against the yen, while the euro stood at $1.1025 (EUR=) versus the greenback, off Friday's three-week high of $1.10625.

Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual.

The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce,'" said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"This Phase 1 agreement, if inked, does little to immediately brighten the outlook for global trade and growth. While it shouldn't prevent the Fed from agreeing to cut rates by another quarter point on Oct. 30, it doesn't provide a firm pretext for significant or sustained U.S. dollar depreciation."

The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

STERLING

The British pound surged on Friday to as high as $1.2708 , its strongest level since July 1, and a five-month peak of 86.955 pence per euro (EURGBP=D4), on optimism about orderly Brexit.

The pound was last down 0.38% at $1.2600 in Asia.

The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline.

EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism.

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Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

Ministry of Corporate Affairs has been investigating three Indiabulls Group companies since about a year and will submit its final report by the end of October, according to people familiar with the matter.

Indiabulls Housing Finance, Indiabulls Ventures, Indiabulls Real Estate are being probed for potential wrongdoing by the Registrar of Companies, which is part of the ministry, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The company has disclosed in court documents that the Ministry is inspecting its books, a representative for Indiabulls said.

Separately, the ministry has also imposed travel restrictions on the founders of Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd. (HDIL), and may start inspecting the developer’s books, the people said. HDIL isn’t aware of any action against the it and its founders, company said in an exchange filing.

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The dollar rose to within touching distance of a new two-year high in early trading on Tuesday, surging against the Australian and New Zealand dollars after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key cash rate to an all-time low of 0.75%.

The dollar rose almost a cent against the Aussie after the RBA’s move, which came after the economy grew at its slowest rate in a decade in the second quarter, another spillover from the U.S.-China trade war that has damped Chinese demand for Australian commodities. It also hit a new 10-year high against the kiwi.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six developed currencies, rose to as high as 99.21, close to the two-year high of 99.33 that it hit last month. That was when it hit a 10-year high against the Aussie – a level that looks set to be tested soon.

“Further price movements may depend on Governor (Philip) Lowe's remarks at a dinner in Melbourne later today, in which he may choose to finesse expectations for future rate movements or provide more clarity on the focus on consumer spending, as opposed to the recent focus on the labour market,” Robert Carnell, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ING, said in a note to clients.

The dollar also rose against the yen after a worse than expected Tankan survey, while it inched higher against the euro and sterling as crunch time approached in the Brexit drama. The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will send his detailed plans for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland to the EU on Tuesday after his speech to the Conservative Party’s annual conference.

According to the Irish state broadcaster RTE, the plans involve a string of customs clearance centers set a few miles back from the border. That effectively creates a hard border in all but name, and thus effectively breach the Good Friday Agreement that the U.K. and EU have both promised to respect.

By 3:30 AM ET, the euro was at $1.0890, up 10 ticks from a new two-year low that it hit at the start of trading. The pound was back below $1.2300, while both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona also came under pressure after sharp drops in their national purchasing managers indexes indicated contraction in both countries’ manufacturing sectors.

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Ambani further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully fundedReliance Infrastructure (RInfra) which is sitting on a debt of Rs 6,000 crore, is on track to reduce leverage even further as it focuses to be an asset-and capital-light entity, the company said on Monday.

Addressing the shareholders at the AGM, chairman Anil Ambani also said the group's defence businesses will also follow an asset- and capital-light model.

"Our intent is to reduce the debt further. At present we are have around Rs 6,000 crore of debt but with a large networth," the RInfra chairman said, adding the will focus on the domestic market and take up more complex infrastructure and transportation projects.

"We hope to become one of the top five defence companies among the private players in the country, serving the needs of self-reliance and technological advancement and becoming a global supplier. Our defence business in partnership with global leaders will ensure optimum utilisation," he said.

He further said the four business verticals including roads, metro, energy and airport are fully funded.

"Going forward, both the growth engines of E&C and defence businesses will remain asset and capital light without the need for any further large capital infusion," he said.

On the defence opportunity, he further said the defence budget of Rs 3 trillion is a great opportunity for domestic players. "Of the Rs 3 lakh crore budget, Rs 1 trillion is for purchase of new weapons platforms and military hardware. This is a great opportunity for us to participate." The company has its presence in the defence business through two of its joint ventures with French firms Dassault Aviation and Thales.

"Both these joint ventures are operational and the factories are located in Mihan in Nagpur. Both are exporting high technology and high-value products to global markets in both civil as well as defence and aerospace area," he said.

Sounding bullish on the infrastructure space, given an outlay of Rs 100 trillion over the next five years, he said the country's infrastructure needs are very vast.

The government has announced Rs 100 lakh crore investment in infrastructure over the next five years and RInfra will participate in these large scale opportunities and projects which are complex, he said.

The company has bagged a few large orders including the Rs 7,000 crore Versova-Bandra Sealink project and a few metro projects in the megapolis.

On the Delhi Metro arbitration award which is around Rs 5,000 crore, he said, the company had already won the case five years ago and is still waiting to receive the amount.

The transaction of the proposed sale of Delhi-Agra toll roadway, which is expected to fetch RInfra Rs 3,600 crore, is likely to be closed in the next few weeks, he said.

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