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The euro nursed losses on Tuesday after weak readings on German manufacturing rattled confidence, while the dollar found broad support as investors looked for signs of progress from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.

The single currency (EUR=) shed 0.2% overnight after a survey showed European business activity stalling, and in fact going backwards in powerhouse Germany where a manufacturing recession deepened.

It held around $1.0990 in Asian hours, while the dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen to buy 107.58 yen and held its ground on the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY), the dollar edged higher to 98.621.

"The U.S. dollar is rising by default rather than anything U.S.-specific," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, adding that volumes were low as traders mostly kept to the sidelines waiting for news.

"Trade is never far from the markets' radar, but I think currency markets are increasingly expecting (U.S-China tensions) to be protracted, I think optimism has dissipated."

The British pound wallowed at $1.2431, near a one-week low, ahead of a UK Supreme Court ruling due around 0930 GMT.

The court will rule on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament just weeks before Brexit, with the case's outcome potentially complicating his plans to lead his country out of the European Union next month.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were steady ahead of a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phil Lowe at 1005 GMT, with the market expecting a dovish tone after weak jobs data last week lifted expectations of an imminent rate cut.

Both currencies sat near three-week lows, with the Aussie buying $0.6772 and the kiwi $0.6290.

"We think Lowe will provide a strong signal that the RBA is ready to cut rates again, endorsing our view for a 25bp cut in October," said Tapas Strickland, a director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"Any comments on the scope for unconventional policy will also be critical for the market."

The Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda is also due to speak today, around 0530 GMT.

Meanwhile a delicate upbeat mood broadly held, with Chinese importers' decision to buy 10 boatloads of U.S. soybeans seen as a positive sign leading in to trade negotiations next month.

China's yuan strengthened very slightly to 7.1056 in offshore trade.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox Business that discussions were scheduled in two weeks and that he and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

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• DXY is extending the consolidative theme above the 98.00 handle following another interest rate cut at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
• The immediate bullish view stays uncompromised for the time being, sustained by the 55-day SMA at 97.89 and Friday’s low at 97.86 .
• If the recovery gathers traction, the index should then target last week’s peak at 99.10.

DXY daily chart

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A country that faces nine crashes every 10 minutes has decided to act tough on drivers who cause accidents. Drivers who have so far been worried about shelling a large amount on traffic violations, would soon be dealing with another concern: ‘How would this traffic law violation impact the insurance premium on the vehicle?’

While the nine-member committee headed by Anurag Rastogi, Chief Actuary & Chief Underwriting Officer, HDFC Ergo General Insurance, charts the road-map for mapping traffic violations to the cost of insurance and tried to gauge the new parameters on which vehicle insurance are likely to be pegged.Such a linkage of insurance premium to traffic violations is expected to reduce accidents and bring about a change in driving behaviour as per the Insurance Regulatory Development Authority (IRDA), which has formed a working group to examine the system of linking premiums to traffic law violations.

Commenting on the move Sajja Praveen Chowdary, Head-Motor Insurance, Policybazaar.com, says, “The overall environment is being altered to make people more responsible when they are in public spaces. So, good drivers would be definitely paying a lower premium versus bad drivers and that is the ideal scenario any insurer would aim for.”Currently, motor insurance premiums are primarily decided by insurance companies based on the historical loss experienced for a particular category of vehicle, including the make in a specific region. But the insurance industry has been waiting for insured/driver-specific information for understanding the risk better to help in improved underwriting, according to Amitabh Jain, Head-Motor & Health underwriting and Claims at ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company (ILGIC).

Whatever changes and developments insurers have undertaken in terms of understanding the claims history of a particular vehicle category would be incomplete without gauging the circumstances under which the vehicle damage occurred. And, driving behaviour is a key parameter, giving them a peek into the probability of claim from a particular person, based on his/her driving behaviour.

“While insurance companies consistently try to improve the pricing for a vehicle by incorporating additional risk parameters such as previous claims history, vehicle safety features (such as an anti-theft device), vintage of the vehicle, and a customer’s association with an insurance company, the ideal way to price a risk would be the individual driving behaviour,” reveals Rakesh Jain, ED & CEO, Reliance General Insurance (RGIC).

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The tax authorities are faced with a steep revenue collection target for 2019-20, with advance tax mop-up posting dismal growth in the first half of the financial year, indicating a deepening economic slowdown.

The overall advance tax collection, including corporate and personal income tax, grew by 6 per cent between April and mid-September as against 18 per cent in the year-ago period, according to sources in the know.

Direct tax collection has seen a growth rate of mere 5 per cent so far this year, which means that collections will need to expand by at least 27 per cent in the remaining half to achieve the Budget target of 17.3 per cent growth.

Advance tax collection after the second instalment stood at Rs 2.2 trillion. The gross direct tax collection has touched Rs 5.5 trillion as against the full-year target of Rs 13.35 trillion.

Within the advance tax collection, corporation tax mop-up grew by 6.5 per cent and personal income tax by 3.5 per cent.

“The revenue situation remains grim on account of the economy expanding slower than expected and key industries being impacted. If the situation does not improve, meeting the collection target will be impossible,” said a government official.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth plummeted to a 25-quarter low of 5 per cent in the first quarter of FY20.

The tax buoyancy estimated this year at 1.44 is higher than 1.21 achieved last year. In simple terms, it means if nominal GDP expands by 10 per cent, direct tax collection will grow by 14.4 per cent, which appears near impossible in the current situation. Nominal GDP grew by just 8 per cent in the first quarter as against 12 per cent budgeted for FY20. Several institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), have cut India’s growth forecast.

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The yen rose from a seven week low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy on hold, in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s overnight decision to cut rates.

The dollar was down 0.44% to 107.95 yen by 2:32 AM ET (6:32 GMT) after the BoJ kept policy on hold, as expected, but signaled it could ease next month.

Central banks around the world have been loosening policy to counter the risks of low inflation and recession.

The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year on Wednesday in a 7-3 vote. The rate cut was widely expected, but the split vote has raised some concern about predicting the future path of monetary policy.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described U.S. prospects as "favourable" and the rate move as "insurance." He did not rule out future cuts, but his remarks were not as dovish as markets had hoped for.

The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1045, while the British pound was little changed at 1.2468.

Investors are awaiting a Bank of England policy meeting later Thursday. The BOE is expected to  keep rates unchanged, but uncertainty over Brexit has complicated the monetary policy outlook.

The Australian dollar was down 0.6% at 0.6786 after data overnight showing that the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in August, underlining the case for additional stimulus by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Floundering as Investors Unwind Bets against Sterling

Tuesday’s stronger than expected Eurozone data wasn’t enough to keep the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate climbing, as the Pound (GBP) remained generally appealing while investors unwound bets against it.

Since last week, hopes that a softer Brexit was still possible have led to a big Pound recovery. EUR/GBP fell over a pence last week and closed at the level of 0.8860.

This week, the Euro (EUR) has attempted to rebound but has been unable as investors are hesitant to sell Sterling too far for now.

While EUR/GBP has avoided last night’s three month low of 0.8844, the pair has only rebounded slightly and still trends low near the level of 0.8864.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Unappealing despite Signs of Improvement in Eurozone Sentiment

The Euro has remained largely unappealing overall this week, as markets are still anxious about the possibility of Germany being in recession. Signs of optimism in yesterday’s Eurozone data were not enough to boost the shared currency against a stronger Pound.

Tuesday saw the publication of ZEW’s September economic sentiment index results. While Germany’s current conditions print was even weaker than expected, the outlooks were actually less dire than predicted.

German economic sentiment lightened to -22.5 and the overall Eurozone’s sentiment index lightened from -43.6 to -22.4.

Still, continued concern about the overall health of Germany’s economy, as well as uncertainty over the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy plans limited demand for the Euro.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Sturdy as Investors Hope to Avoid Missing another Rally

Speculation that the Pound could continue a rally that started at the end of last week has kept investors from selling the British currency much so far this week.

Sterling has been highly volatile, as on Monday it briefly shed some of Friday’s gains, but rebounded and climbed again on Tuesday afternoon.

Analysts have said that the main question for the Pound outlook was whether no-deal Brexit was really off the table or not.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that while he will not break the law, Britain will be exiting the EU on the 31st of October with or without a deal.

This, as well as warnings from EU officials that no-deal Brexit was a serious risk, kept no-deal Brexit fears on the table, keeping a lid on the Pound’s potential for gains.

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Awaits Central Bank Speculation and News

While developments in UK politics and Brexit will remain the primary influence for Pound movement, expected central bank news and likely speculation will be highly influential for the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate over the coming days.

This evening’s Federal Reserve policy decision could cause some Euro movement if it surprises investors, due to the Euro’s negative correlation with the US Dollar (USD).

It will be followed by the Bank of England’s (BoE) own September policy decision tomorrow.

The BoE is not expected to show any notable shifts in tone, but if its stances have been shifted at all by data or Brexit news then the Pound could of course see some reaction.European Central Bank (ECB) speculation could influence the Euro’s movement as well, depending on today’s upcoming inflation rate stats. Overall, central bank and Brexit news is likely to influence the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate.

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The S&P BSE Sensex gained 135 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 36,620 levels. Bajaj Finance, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Asian Paints were the top gainers in the Sensex pack. The broader Nifty50 index was up 40 points, or 0.36 per cent, to 10,860 levels.

The Nifty sectoral indices, except Nifty FMCG, were trading in the green. Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, and Nifty Realty indexes all gained over 1 per cent each.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index was ruling at 13,460 levels, up 78 points, or 0.6 per cent, and the S&P BSE SmallCap index was hovering around 12,900 levels, up 48 points, or 0.37 per cent.

GLOBAL MARKETS

03:46 PM

Nifty Realty among top gainers on the NSE today

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Key indices on NSE

03:44 PM

 

RIL, SBI, ITC contribute most to Sensex's gain today

03:43 PM

 

Sensex heat map

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GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Muted as UK Inflation Misses Expectations

The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate is stuck in a narrow range this morning, in response to a weaker-than-expected CPI release from the UK.

At the time of writing the GBP/AUD exchange rate is currently trading at around AU$1.8218, virtually unchanged from the morning’s opening levels but down from a high of AU$1.8259.

UK Inflation Slows, BoE Rate Decision to Come

The Pound (GBP) is facing headwinds this morning as markets react to the UK’s weaker-than-expected consumer price index (CPI).                        

According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK inflation slowed from 2.1% to 1.7% in August, missing expectations for a modest slide to 1.9% and falling to its worst levels since December 2016.The drop in inflation is welcome news for consumers, as combined with the recent surge in wage growth, which struck 4% in July, consumer spending power is on the rise.

However, the slump in inflation could put more pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to consider lowering interest rates.

The BoE will conclude its latest policy meeting tomorrow, and while no policy changes are expected from the bank this month, could the slowdown in inflation push the BoE towards lowering interest rates after Brexit?

Could a Rise in Unemployment Prompt another Rate Cut from the RBA Next Month?

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 Substantial supply disruptions, post attacks on Saudi oil field
- Crude oil prices soar in trade
- Iran the main suspect behind the attacks, geopolitical tension escalating
- US orders release of strategic oil reserve to ease supply issues
- Huge inventory and spare capacity to make up for lost barrels
- In the short term, India could feel the heat

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 Thailand expects little impact from surging oil prices on its inflation rate and exports following attacks on Saudi oil facilities, a commerce ministry official said on Monday.

Saturday's drone assaults on Saudi oil facilities shut 5% of global crude output and caused the biggest surge in oil prices since 1991 after U.S. officials blamed Iran and President Donald Trump said Washington was "locked and loaded" to retaliate.

But the situation is not expected to drag on and should lift Thailand's inflation by just 0.01 percentage point, official Pimchanok Vonkorporn said in a statement.

The ministry is maintaining its 2019 headline inflation forecast of 0.7%-1.3%, she said, adding that the impact of oil prices on inflation is less than that of a strong baht , Asia's best performing currency this year.

The strengthening baht, which has gained 6.7% against the dollar so far this year, might keep inflation less than 1% this year, Pimchanok said.

In January-August, headline inflation was 0.87%.

Oil-related exports may improve only slightly and the ministry is sticking to the government's annual export growth target of 3% in the second half of 2019,

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