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Forex - Euro Steady Ahead of ECB, Sterling Slides

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 The euro was holding steady on Monday as investors looked ahead to a European Central Bank meeting later this week at which new stimulus is expected, while the British pound was pressured lower by Brexit uncertainty.

The euro was little changed at 1.1029 03:41 AM ET (07:41 GMT) after falling 0.1% on Friday.

The ECB is all but certain to approve new stimulus measures on Thursday to boost an ailing economy, but the exact composition of the stimulus package is still unclear.

While an interest rate cut seems like a done deal the big question is whether a resumption of asset purchases will be part of the package after some policymakers said it would be premature.

Heightened expectations for ECB easing come as other global central banks move to ease monetary policy, including the People's Bank of China, which on Friday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves.

Policymakers are rushing to bolster growth as a wide-ranging dispute between the United States and China over trade policy drags into a second year, increasing the risk of recession.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to act "as appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion in the world's biggest economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday in Zurich, confirming expectations for a rate cut at the Fed's next policy decision on Sept. 18.

Sterling traded at 1.2254, down 0.2% for the day.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 98.40.

The dollar traded at 106.97 yen, little changed from Friday.

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Forex: Traders Look to Beijing for New Stimulus

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The U.S. dollar was marginally higher Monday morning and the yuan strengthened somewhat as weak export data from China suggested Beijing might introduce new stimulus measures.

The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies was up 0.03% to 98.42 by 10:12 PM ET (02:12 GMT).The dollar got some bad news on Friday on a weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report that reported 130,000 new jobs, compared to the 150,000 Wall Street had been expecting.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the reference rate for the yuan at 7.0851, compared to Friday’s fix of 7.0855.

Chinese exports fell by 1% in August, defying expectations for a 2% increase. Shipments to the U.S. slowed down sharply as a result of the ongoing trade dispute between the two countries. The new data has led to speculation that Beijing will introduce stimulus measures beyond the cut to banks reserve requirement ratios (RRR) of 50 basis points or 100 basis points for some banks, introduced on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair traded down 0.05% at 106.85. Japan’s economy grew by 1.3% between April and June, according to data from the Cabinet Office released today. The data matched the expectations of economists polled by Reuters. The rate translates into quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3%.

The AUD/USD pair was up 0.07% at 0.6851 while the NZD/USD pair was up 0.05% to 0.6428.

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U.S jobs data supports dollar as fragile risk-on mood holds

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 Encouraging U.S. economic data gave the dollar an edge over its peers on Friday, arresting a recent flight from the greenback while also supporting Asian currencies as investors toned down recent gloom over the global economy.

Separate surveys suggested the world's largest economy is in better shape than investors had feared. U.S. service sector activity accelerated in August and private employers boosted hiring beyond expectations.

It contributed to a broad risk-on shift in money, bond and stock markets stoked by news that China-U.S. trade talks would resume next month, and supported the dollar.

"Stronger than forecast employment, factory orders and productivity numbers contradicted the recent 'slowing U.S. economy' narrative," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.

The dollar recouped some losses against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and against a basket of currencies clambered off a one-week low to hold flat around 98.419.

Traders now await the government's monthly payrolls report due at 1230 GMT on Friday for the next snapshot on the labor market's health.

"Investors are now hoping they can take this week's positivity over the finishing line, so fingers crossed the August U.S. payroll report...doesn't throw a damp towel on the proceedings," said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific  Market Strategist at AxiTrader.

Other factors supporting risk sentiment were a potential breakthrough in the Hong Kong political crisis and reduced chances of Britain crashing out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without a deal.

The pound rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than a month and held most of those gains to trade around $1.2326 in Asian hours.

That was in spite of more political chaos in Britain, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plan to kick off what is in effect an election and a Brexit campaign was overshadowed on Thursday when his younger brother quit the government.

The euro (EUR=EBS) was steady at $1.1031 at 0030 GMT. The yuan gained overnight and held in morning offshore trade around 7.1382 per dollar. The trade-exposed South Korean won hit a month high of 1,198.40 per dollar.

Sentiment has been skittish, however, since the Brexit project remains up in the air and previous progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations has failed in the past.

The yen, which was sold to a one-month low of 107.22 per dollar on Thursday, bounced a little to 106.98, a signal some caution remains.

"These moves may prove to be short term rather than the start of a fresh cycle," said Nick Twidale, director of Sydney-based brokerage XChainge.

"Both the major geo-political issues that seem to have turned over the last few days have a large degree of uncertainty associated with them over the medium, let alone long term," he said, referring to Brexit and U.S-China trade talks.

"We've seen a lot of activity on the frequent flyer accounts of both the Chinese and US trade negotiation teams before which has resulted in little in the way of progress."

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Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

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CAD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD/CAD | Momentum Shifts to the Downside, 50DMA Eyed
  • GBP/CAD | Bounce Fades, Brexit Keeps Cross Volatile
  • EUR/CAD | Key Fibonacci Support Breaks
  • USD/CAD saw its sharpest fall since January 30th as a neutral statement from the BoC had been perceived as hawkish relative to expectations, while oil prices had also surged over 4%. However, while momentum indicators may well be pointing to further downside, eyes are on whether trend signals confirm the recent shift in momentum. On the downside, support is situated at the 50DMA at 1.3188, in which a closing break below raises risk of a 1.3115 test (61.8% Fib of 1.2780-1.3660 rise). Looking ahead, market participants will be paying attention to comments from the BoC Deputy Governor at 1700BST, while external factors regarding key US data will also be in focus.

    USD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD


    Despite the recent bid in GBP/CAD, the 50DMA situated at 1.6230 has held firm, thus curbing the upside in the cross. That said, as will be the case with many GBP pairs, Brexit induced volatility is likely to cause sizeable swings. On the topside, key resistance resides at 1.6300-25, which has previously limited gains in the pair. Trend signals are relatively weak, emphasising the fact that the cross is lacking firm direction, as such, the cross may stay within a 1.60-1.63 range.

    GBP/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2019 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD


    The downtrend continues for EUR/CAD, which trades at a fresh 2 year low. A neutral BoC vs a dovish ECB that is set to announce a new stimulus package next week keeps the outlook bearish, particularly with momentum indicators also bearishly aligned. The cross has now edged below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.3017-1.6150 rise, which in turn opens-up a move towards the 1.45 handle.

    EUR/CAD Price Chart: Weekly Time Frame (Jan 2015 – Sep 2019)

    Canadian Dollar Technical Analysis Overview: USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD

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USD/IDR Flat After Negative Consumer Confidence Report

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A pile of mixed IDR banknotesThe Indonesian rupiah was flat versus the US dollar after the negative consumer confidence report.

The Bank Indonesia reported that the Consumer Confidence Index was at 123.1 in August. That was a decline from July’s 124.8. Still, the report said that the index was “in the optimistic zone”.

USD/IDR was flat at 14,160 as of 8:15 GMT today.

If you have any questions, comments, or opinions regarding the Indonesian Rupiah, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Earlier News About the Indonesian Rupiah:

  • USD/IDR Flat After Bank Indonesia Cuts Interest Rates (2019-08-22)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Climbs vs. US Dollar As Crude Oil Prices Drop (2018-12-19)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Stable After Central Bank Raises Interest Rates (2018-08-15)
  • Bank Indonesia May Intervene to Support Falling Rupiah (2018-04-25)
  • Indonesian Rupiah Weakens on Fed Interest Rate Hike Bets (2018-04-23)
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Indian rupee unlikely to gain traction as investors stay shy: Reuters poll

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The Indian rupee will not regain ground lost against the dollar in the coming year, according to strategists polled by Reuters, who believe a recent rollback of a surcharge on foreign investments will have no impact on the currency.

After gaining about 2% following a sweeping victory in the general election by the incumbent government late in May, the rupee has lost nearly 6% since a July 5 budget when a surcharge on foreign investments was introduced.

That pushed international investors to turn net sellers after being net buyers until then from February.

Although those higher taxes were withdrawn last month, the move did not alleviate the rupee's weakness and about 60% of respondents did not expect it to have any impact for the remainder of the year.

The rupee fell to 72.40 per dollar on Tuesday, its weakest this year, still suffering from data last week that showed the economy grew at its slowest pace in over six years in the last quarter.

The Aug 29-Sept 4 Reuters poll of over 50 strategists predicted the currency will trade around 72 per dollar over the coming year.

While the median forecast showed the rupee will not retest Tuesday's low, the 12-month view was the most pessimistic in Reuters polls since December.

"Although the measures by the government to rollback the surcharge is a step in the right direction, the damage is already done, as foreign investors continue to withdraw from the Indian equity market," said Hugo Erken head of international economics at Rabobank, referring to its impact on the rupee.

"Given other factors which fuel a further risk-off sentiment - such as...weak GDP print of 5% for fiscal Q1 and further escalation of the China-U.S. trade war - we feel it is difficult to attract investors to make up for the losses in portfolio flows."

That weaker rupee view lines up with a separate Reuters positioning poll which showed short bets for the currency rose to the highest since November 2018 on growing concerns about the U.S.-China trade war.

Emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, have been hit hard by the intensifying trade war. China has allowed the yuan (CNY) to weaken further beyond 7 per dollar to help offset new tariffs imposed by the United States.

"USDINR continues to watch CNY movements and broader dollar bias, which at this juncture points toward further INR weakness owing to a weak global environment," noted Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore.

Slowing growth concerns pushed central banks across a group of 37 developing economies to deliver a net fourteen interest rate cuts last month - the largest since the financial crisis.

Of those, the Reserve Bank of India was one of the most aggressive. It has lowered interest rates several times this year and is expected to do so again.

However, over 75% of strategists in response to a separate question said expected RBI rate cuts would have no impact on the rupee or be negative. The remainder said easing would benefit the currency.

"Even after the 110 (basis points of) cuts, the impact on the rupee was felt more recently when a number of other factors emerged, including the slowdown in both domestic and global demand," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale(PA:SOGN), the most accurate forecaster for Asian currencies in 2018.

"That is why interest rates as a stand-alone factor will only have a marginal effect on the rupee."

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Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

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  • Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.75%.
  • USDCAD chart shows bears starting to take control.

Q3 2019 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities


Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Stephen Poloz is expected to announce that the overnight interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.75% when the central bank meets today. At the last meeting in July, the central bank noted that while the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth, ‘the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions’. Financial markets expect no rate change today but are pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the October 30 meeting which will include the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

Live Data Webinar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Since the last BoC announcement, trade tensions – especially between the US and China – have increased with both sides announcing additional trade tariffs. This backdrop has weighed on the price of oil, which in turn has put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian energy sector accounts for around 11% of nominal GDP and produced revenues of $14.1 billion in 2017.

The daily USDCAD chart shows that the rally that started in mid-July is running out of momentum and this move may continue if the central bank’s press announcement today is more dovish than expected. This week’s price action shows two bearish ‘shooting star’ candles with a long upper shadow and very little lower shadow. Today’s bearish candlestick is more likely due to US dollar weakness, but the chart may be pointing to a retrace back to the 1.3225 – 1.3245 area. The 200-day moving average at 1.3293 stands in the way of this move lower. The CCI indicator shows the pair moving out of overbought territory. To the upside, a break and close above 1.3350 should be watched, before Tuesday’s multi-week high at 1.3383 comes into view.


Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

IG Client Sentiment data show that 34.0% of retail traders are net-long of USDCAD, a bullish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that USDCAD may soon move lower.

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FOREX-Dollar extends decline after disappointing factory data

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* Euro lifted away from 28-month lows

* Dollar weakness helps emerging market currencies

* Sterling gains on bid to stop no-deal Brexit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019

The dollar extended its fall on Wednesday following disappointing manufacturing data, helping the euro to recover from more than two-year lows.

Sterling also rallied, recovering some of Tuesday's losses after the latest parliamentary attempt to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar's pullback was prompted by manufacturing activity in the world's biggest economy contracting for the first time in three years last month, data from the Institute for Supply Management published on Tuesday showed. knocked the wind out of a previously rising greenback and spurred a further bond rally as investors increased bets on more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts before the end of 2019.

The dollar was last down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, its index at 98.803 .DXY , easing from a more than two-year high hit on Tuesday.

"Yesterday's manufacturing survey was very gloomy and confirms that the U.S. is suffering from the global trade and manufacturing downturn, along with everyone else," said Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Societe Generale The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0992 EUR=EBS , pulling further away from $1.0926 - a 28-month low - touched on Tuesday before the weak U.S. data was published.

The European single currency was little moved by the final release of the euro zone Purchasing Managers Index composite survey, which came in slightly better than expected.

The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc fell as some calm returned to markets, helped by reports that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam would on Wednesday announce the formal withdrawal of an extradition bill that triggered months of unrest. showing growth in China's service sector also boosted investor sentiment.

The yen was down 0.2% at 106.19 yen per dollar JPY=EBS . The Swiss franc dropped 0.3% versus the euro to 1.0858 francs EURCHF=EBS .

The dollar's weakness helped China's offshore yuan CNH=EBS pull away further from record lows plumbed earlier this week. The yuan was last up 0.3% at 7.1553 yuan per dollar.

Emerging market currencies were mostly up on the dollar weakness, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also seized on the greenback's weakness to rise AUD=D3 NZD=D3 .

"The expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue has increased," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"But it's not a capitulation on the dollar. It's just merely stopped the recent rise of the dollar."

The British pound, which on Tuesday fell below $1.20 and to its weakest in three-years, rose 0.5% to the day's high of $1.2157 GBP=D3 .

Against the euro it rallied 0.4% to 90.39 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Lawmakers who defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government late on Tuesday are expected to introduce a bill in parliament seeking to stop Britain from leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 without transitional arrangements.

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EUR/USD has found support and may extend its recovery to 1.1073 – Confluence Detector

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EUR/USD has bounced off the new two-year lows after US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index dropped below 50 and reflected a contraction in the critical sector. Can the world's most popular currency pair move extend its recovery?

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD enjoys significant support at 1.0965, where we see a dense cluster including the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 10-4h, the previous monthly low, the previous weekly low, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the BB 1d-Lower, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, and the BB 15min-Lower. Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.1016, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week meets the SMA 5-1d. 

Several junctures of resistance await on the way up, with the most significant one awaiting at 1.1073, which is the where we see the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the SMA 100-4h, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Below 1.0965, the next support line is 1.0890, where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1d-S3 converge.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD September 4 2019 technical confluence

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar, Yen Little Changed as Sino-U.S. Trade Tensions Ease

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The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen were largely flat on Friday in Asia as tensions between China and the U.S. seemingly eased somewhat.

The USD/JPY pair last traded at 106.46 by 11:00 AM ET (03:00 GMT), down 0.03%.

Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said China is willing to negotiate with the U.S. on trade issues “with calm attitude,” adding that Beijing will not retaliate against U.S.’s latest tariff moves for now.

His comments sent global stocks higher and was cited as headwinds for the safe-haven yen, but political crisis in Hong Kong and Middle East supported the Japanese currency.

"There are so many geopolitical risk factors now. Not to mention U.S.-China trade conflicts, we have Brexit, Hong Kong and the Middle East. So we should expect the yen to jump from time to time,U.S. President Donald Trump said some discussions were taking place on Thursday, ahead of a looming deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Sept. 1.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index was also little changed at 98.477.

Data showed overnight that U.S. second-quarter economic growth slowed to 2%, in line with expectations.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September to support the economy in the face of trade risk.

After the release of the data, Trump once again criticized the Fed for not cutting rates enough.

The GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 1.2183 as the looming prospect of a no-deal Brexit kept traders on edge. Prime Minister Boris Johnson decided earlier this week to suspend Britain's parliament for more than a month before Brexit.

The move will limit the time opponents have to derail a disorderly Brexit but also increases the chance that Johnson could face a vote of no-confidence in his government, and possibly an election.The AUD/USD pair was down 0.2% to 0.6710, while the NZD/USD pair traded 0.2% lower to 0.6292.

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