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 The U.S. dollar steadied on Wednesday in Asia after falling overnight amid Sino-U.S. trade uncertainties and an inversion of the U.S. yield curve. 

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was up 0.1% to 97.998 by 12:58 AM ET (04:58 GMT).

Developments in the trade dispute between the U.S. and China remained in focus. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Monday that Chinese officials had called and offered to resume negotiations, but Beijing claimed the next day that it is not aware the phone call took place. 

Tensions between the two sides escalated late last week after both the U.S. and China announced new tariff measures and Trump appeared to threaten to use emergency powers to force U.S. companies to stop making goods in China.

Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 2-year Treasury note fell to 1.526% overnight, creating an “inverted yield curve,” a phenomenon that has presaged several past U.S. recessions and sparked concerns among traders.

The AUD/USD pair slipped 0.2% to 0.6737, continuing its downward momentum after Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Guy Debelle said a weakening domestic currency was supporting the economy and that further falls would be beneficial.

A bleaker economic outlook in China, Australia's largest trading partner, was also cited as headwind for the Aussie dollar.

The NZD/USD pair fell 0.4% to 0.6335.

The USD/JPY pair rose 0.1%.

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The yen gained ground against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns over the latest escalation in the protracted Sino- U.S. trade war underpinned demand for safe haven assets.

Global markets have been whipsawed by developments in the trade dispute this month. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Monday that Chinese officials had called and offered to resume negotiations, an assertion that China declined to confirm.

His comments helped temper sharp losses in global markets after both sides announced new tariffs on Friday. But concerns remain about a lack of a clear path toward resolving the dispute which has seen the global economic outlook deteriorate.

The dollar was down 0.37% against the yen at 105.72 by 04:02 AM ET (08:02 GMT).

The yen, which tends to be bought in times of economic uncertainty, also rose around 0.6% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The U.S. dollar index measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.17% at 97.81.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to 1.51%. The yield curve was inverted as 2-year yields traded at 1.53%, which is commonly considered a sign of an impending economic recession.China’s onshore yuan fell to a fresh eleven-and-a-half year low, amid worries that the economy is suffering from the ongoing trade dispute.

The euro was little changed at 1.1106.

The British pound traded at 1.2243, after a 0.5% fall on Monday as investors reassessed whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had made any progress in convincing the European Union to renegotiate the Brexit agreement.

Johnson said on Monday he was prepared to take Brexit talks with the European Union down to the very last minute before the Oct. 31 exit deadline, and if necessary to take a decision to leave without a deal on that day.

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The Chinese yuan fell against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia amid conflicting signals on the Sino-U.S. trade war.

The USD/CNY pair traded 0.1% higher to 7.1610 by 11:47 PM ET (03:47 GMT).

Speaking at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he had received two phone calls from Chinese officials over the weekend urging new trade talks.

The yuan received some support following his comments, as they eased some fears over the latest escalation in the trade war. However, China’s foreign ministry later said it was not aware of any U.S. - China phone calls, raising doubts on whether the two sides would be able to resolve the trade issues in the near future.

The People’s Bank of China lowered its official onshore yuan midpoint to 7.0810 per dollar on Tuesday, a fresh 11-1/2-yaer low.The safe-haven yen recovered as the latest trade news once again tempered investors optimism. The USD/JPY pair last traded at 105.68, down 0.4%.

"The dollar rallied overnight due to optimism about a trade deal, but there's a sense that the market has gotten a little ahead of itself," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities, in a Reuters report.

"Some traders can book a little profit here. There are still so many issues that can trigger a clash between the United States and China. Treasuries shows the market is still somewhat skeptical."

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.1% to $97.893.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair were down 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

The GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 1.2209. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that he was prepared to take Brexit discussions with the European Union to the very last minute, and that he would make the decision to leave without a deal if necessary.

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• Gold edged lower through the mid-European session on Monday and slipped below the key $1500 psychological mark to hit multi-day lows in the last hour.
• Sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1400-$1535 upsurge - was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators have been gaining negative traction on hourly charts and support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide back towards testing last week's swing lows - around the $1483-81 region - nearing 38.2% Fibo. level.
 
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and might continue to attract some dip-buying interest, which might help limit further downside ahead of Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes.Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some follow-through technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards $1475 intermediate support en-route 50$ Fibo. level - around the $1467-65 region amid fading safe-haven demand.

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The U.S. dollar was hovering just below three-week highs in subdued trade on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 last month in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Financial markets are still expecting further rate cuts before the end of the year against a background of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

The minutes come ahead of the central bank's annual Jackson Hole seminar later this week, where Powell is to give an eagerly awaited speech on Friday. His comments are of particular interest after last week's inversion of the U.S. yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would cut rates again at its September meeting.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.12% to 98.17 by 03:05 AM ET (07:05 GMT) after shedding 0.2% overnight.

The index had climbed to 98.33 on Tuesday, its highest since Aug. 1, as U.S. yields bounced from multi-year lows at the week's start on signs global policymakers were ready to step up stimulus support to stave off a steep economic downturn.

U.S. yields, however, declined overnight on the prospect of more easing by the Fed.

Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute, believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "strong desire for deep rate cuts" may raise hopes among some traders of strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. But he also warned that Powell may opt to give little away in his speech as the Fed prepares for next month's meeting.The dollar rose 0.34% to 106.58 yen reversing a part of the previous day's losses, while the euro was a touch lower at 1.1089 having put on 0.2% overnight.

The single currency dipped briefly after Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday.

"Conte's resignation won't have a strong impact on the euro in the longer run as it is only a chapter in the ever-shifting Italian politics," said Kanda at Gaitame.Com Research.

In addition to the Fed, the euro also has to contend with the possibility of the European Central Bank easing policy in September.

The Bundesbank said on Monday that the German economy may have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production declined. That would mean the euro zone's biggest economy is now in recession following the second quarter's decline reported last week. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth."Germany in recession would generate a strong buzz, and there is no doubt that economic conditions in the zone would force the ECB to take its next policy steps," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

Sterling was down 0.24% to 1.2138, giving back some of the previous sessions gains.

The British pound rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would think about practical solutions regarding the post-Brexit Irish border.

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 The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia, while the Euro was also largely unchanged as Italy’s Prime Minister quit.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of other currencies was little changed at 98.107. A gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to be major directional drivers for the U.S. currency.

The Fed will release minutes of its July policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In July, the central slashed rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The euro was also near flat after Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he is resigning ahead of no-confidence vote.

The latest reports suggested that it is unclear if snap elections would be called or if parliament would be asked to try and form a new government.

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar even as stock markets traded lower amid concerns on a slowing global economy. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China relations also affected market sentiment, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to “take China on” even if it would cause short-term impact on U.S. economy.

"Somebody had to take China on," Trump told reporters during a White House visit by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. "This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it," he said.

"China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it's imperative that somebody does this," he said.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.4% to 0.6778. The NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6407.

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GOLD & SILVER PRICE TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

• Gold pullback may deepen, but constructive so far
• Silver has support not too far away to keep it bid

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, see the Q3 Gold Forecast.

GOLD PULLBACK MAY DEEPEN, BUT CONSTRUCTIVE SO FAR

Last week, gold ran into major long-term resistance by way of lows created following the 2011 spike-high, and the volatile price action last Tuesday cemented the bottom of the 1522/75 zone as a legitimate ceiling.

The decline so far has been subtle with little to no change since a week ago, a bullish development thus far. Gradual, stubborn declines following sharp run-ups into resistance are considered a good thing; it shows buying interest even at a hint of weakness.This doesn’t mean something won’t further spur gold along to the downside, but as long as it doesn’t turn outright aggressive, then weakness will be treated only as a correction within an ongoing bull-move that began since the wedge-breakout in June.

A good spot for would-be longs is the trend-line running up from late May in the vicinity of 1450/60. A decline and hold there would offer enough room back up to the resistance zone for a good risk/reward swing-trade with potential to turn it into something much larger if a breakout above 1575 were to develop.

For now, gold is still close to a major zone of resistance and at risk of correcting further or at least moving sideways for a bit longer. This takes some shine off of fresh longs, but doesn’t invoke much confidence in shorts given the generally strong nature of gold.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver price action is similar to gold, constructive so far despite last Tuesday’s volatile session. There is good support by way of a couple of directions. There is the 2003 trend-line that once acted as resistance, then there is the trend-line from July rising up near current levels. Sideways price action has silver looking like it wants to maintain and build on the rally that began at the end of May.RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

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The dollar was little changed in early trading in Europe Wednesday but starting to build momentum against the euro at the start of a day where politics is likely to dominate economics.

The euro was at $1.1079 by 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT) and looking to test last week’s low of $1.1066 ahead of a big day in the Italian parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to speak in the afternoon and is expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Snap elections are one possibility, but it is also possible that President Sergio Mattarella will ask the parties in parliamment to form a new government. Theoretically, the 5 Stars Movement and the traditional center-left Democratic Party are capable of forming a majority that could pass a budget for the coming year and perhaps take the sting out of the country’s budget dispute with the European Union. However, that would require the two parties to set aside a good deal of past animosity toward each other.

Economics are also against the euro at present, after the Deutsche Bundesbank warned in its monthly report on Monday that it expects a second straight quarter of contraction in the summer, meaning that the euro zone’s traditional engine room would be in recession for the first time in a decade.

The euro was, however, strengthening against the pound after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest initiative on Brexit underlined the distance between the U.K. and EU positions on how to manage the Irish border in future. In an open letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson again reiterated the desire for freedom to diverge from the EU’s regulatory standards in the long term, a prospect which the EU has always said will require border and customs checks to be introduced.

The pound was at 1.0927 against the euro, down 0.3% from late Monday and apparently resuming its slide, ending a short-covering rally that was triggered by hopes that lawmakers would strike a cross-party agreement to block a No-Deal Brexit.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up less than 0.1% at 98.257.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF remained well offered as the backdrop of the global slowdown forces the unwinding of carry trades and raises demand for haven currencies. Analysts note that sight deposits in the Swiss banking system have been rising at an accelerating pace over the last four weeks, something they say strongly suggests intervention by the Swiss National Bank to slow the franc’s rise. At 1.0854 to the euro, it has risen nearly 10% in the last 16 months, most of that appreciation coming in the last four months.

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USDCAD TECHNICAL HIGHLIGHTS:

• USDCAD rise marked by grinding price action, may fail
• May fail, but still need to respect channel in the meantime
• Specific levels and lines to watch in the days ahead

USDCAD RISE MARKED BY GRINDING PRICE ACTION, MAY FAIL

The U.S. Dollar has been rallying against the Canadian Dollar since last month, but the rise in USDCAD hasn’t been particularly strong and has slowed even further in recent sessions. Sluggish price action suggests a break to the downside could soon be in the works.

But before jumping the gun on shorts, the near-term upward technical structure still remains in place and needs to be snapped before sellers can start to gain the upper hand. Watch for a break of the lower parallel and a lower-low to unfold under last week’s low at 13184 (4-hr chart). Should this happen then a larger decline could be in store.

The initial target on a breakdown clocks in at the 2012 trend-line and July low (just above 13000), which should be in near confluence at the time price would arrive (daily chart). A decline to that point would be a very important test. Not only is it a long-term trend-line, but a failure to hold could lead to a sharp sell-off similar to 2017 as the grind higher since that year fully gives way to selling (weekly chart).

On the top-side, if the USDCAD can continue to maintain the channel, or at the least maintain its higher-high, higher-low form, then the next major obstacle beyond 13344 is the trend-line running down off the 2016 peak.

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The U.S. dollar was hovering near two-week highs against a currency basket on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields bounced back from recent lows amid hopes that major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus.

The U.S. dollar index, against a basket of six major currencies was at 98.05 by 03:01 AM ET (07:01 GMT), not far from the two-week high of 98.20 reached on Friday.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.57%, having pulled away from a three-year trough of 1.47% marked last week in the wake of global slowdown fears.

Falling yields last week caused the two-year/10-year Treasury curve to invert for the first since 2007, a phenomenon widely regarded as a recession signal that puts the Federal Reserve interest rate deliberations into focus.

"This week's main event is the Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chairman (Jerome) Powell's speech," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

Powell will deliver a speech on Friday at an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

"What Powell has to say is in focus as the discrepancy remains between what he said on interest rates and what the markets have come to expect the Fed will do," Ishikawa said.

Powell said after the Fed lowered rates in July that the easing was not the start of a series of cuts. But market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by another 25 basis points at the next policy meeting in September have increased.

The euro was steady at 1.1092 while the British pound edged up 0.15% to 1.2166.

The dollar was little changed against the yen at 106.37.

The Chinese yuan was slightly lower after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was not ready yet to make a trade with China.

Traders were also cautious ahead of the debut of China's new benchmark lending rate on Tuesday, which was announced at the weekend.

The People’s Bank of China on Saturday unveiled interest rate reforms to help lower borrowing costs for companies and support slowing growth, which has been hit by the trade war with the U.S.

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