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The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country's central bank, on April 7 announced a 250 basis points hike in the benchmark interest rates, taking it to 12.25 percent.

The decision was taken by the SBP at an emergency meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) called earlier in the day.

"Since the last MPC meeting, the outlook for inflation has deteriorated and risks to external stability have risen," the central bank said in a statement, adding that "heightened domestic political uncertainty" has contributed to a 5 percent depreciation in the Pakistani rupee.

This, in addition to a number of external factors including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tightening of fiscal policy by the US has compelled the MPC to revise the key lending rate which stood at 9.75 percent before the meeting, the SBP said.

"The MPC noted that the above developments necessitated a strong and proactive policy response. Accordingly, the MPC decided at its emergency meeting today, to raise the policy rate by 250 basis points to 12.25 percent. This increases forward-looking real interest rates (defined as the policy rate less expected inflation) to mildly positive territory," the statement said.

The SBP, citing the future markets, suggested that global commodity prices, including oil, are likely to remain elevated for longer and "the Federal Reserve is likely to increase interest rates more quickly" than previously anticipated.

"As a result of these developments, average inflation forecasts have been revised upwards to slightly above 11 percent in FY22 before moderating in FY23," it said, adding that the current account deficit is still expected to be around 4 percent of GDP in FY22.

The MPC was of the view that a "reduction in domestic political uncertainty and prudent fiscal policies" should help ensure that Pakistan’s robust economic recovery from COVID-19 remains sustainable, the central bank noted.

President Joe Biden’s top economic adviser said the administration has warned India against aligning itself with Russia, and that U.S. officials have been “disappointed” with some of New Delhi’s reaction to the Ukraine invasion.

“There are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India’s decisions, in the context of the invasion,” the director of the White House National Economic Council, Brian Deese, told reporters at a breakfast Wednesday hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

The U.S. has told India that the consequences of a “more explicit strategic alignment” with Moscow would be “significant and long-term,” he said.

While the U.S., Europe, Australia and Japan have piled economic sanctions onto Russia in response to its war against Ukraine, India has declined and instead has sought to continue imports of Russian oil.

New Delhi’s reaction to the invasion is complicating its relationship with Washington, where India is regarded as an important partner

in countering Chinese influence in Asia.

Deese’s comments come after Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh traveled to India last week for meetings with officials.

“What Daleep did make clear to his counterparts during this visit was that we don’t believe it’s in India’s interest to accelerate or increase imports of Russian energy and other commodities,” Press Secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this week.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t respond to a message seeking comment sent after normal business hours.

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar Wednesday again underlined the importance of New Delhi’s ties with Moscow.

Russia is an “important partner in a variety of areas,” the minister told parliament. “Like all other countries, we too are assessing the implications” of Russia’s war in Ukraine and “deciding what is best for our national interest.”

The U.S. and the rest of the Group of Seven nations will continue to collaborate with India and hope that they can align efforts to the greatest extent possible, a U.S. official said in a briefing for reporters Wednesday on new sanctions against Russia. India and the U.S. collaborate extensively on food security and global energy, the official said.

The official asked not to be identified as a condition of the briefing.

In addition to seeking Russian oil, India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has resisted entreaties from the U.S. and Australia to scale back the relationship, insisting that India needs Russian weapons to counter both Pakistan and China and that alternatives are too expensive, according to people familiar with the matter.

Click Here:- Nirmala Sitharaman hails free foodgrain scheme after IMF paper says it kept a lid on extreme poverty during COVID

Sharing the IMF paper on Twitter, the minister said, “The working paper notes that the social safety net given to the poor by way of expansion of the country's food subsidy program absorbed a major chunk of the pandemic shock.”

As reported by Moneycontrol on April 6,  extreme poverty rose to 0.86 percent in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic because of the free foodgrain scheme, the paper Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India said. Extreme poverty was 0.76 percent in India in 2019.

The World Bank defines extreme poverty as those living on under $1.9 a day in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity terms

"The expansion of India's food subsidy program rather than increasing cash transfers enabled the government to provide for free food as per the average monthly requirement to all those who were entitled to purchase the same from the PDS (Public Distribution System) system," economists Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin and Arvind Virmani said in the paper.

"Subsequently, the doubling of entitlements in 2020 helped maintain extreme poverty at the low 0.8 percent level," the paper added.

The pandemic shock was largely a temporary income shock, the economists said, adding that the fiscal policy interventions were the fiscally-appropriate way to absorb a large part of the shock.

IDFC Ltd is likely to announce the sale of its mutual fund business on Wednesday evening after the Board’s approval, sources aware of the development said.

According to media reports, a consortium led by Bandhan Financial Holdings is leading the race to acquire IDFC AMC.

Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, private equity player ChrysCapital are some of the partners of the consortium. Bandhan Financial is also the holding company of Kolkata-based private sector lender Bandhan Bank. The deal will allow the Bandhan group to enter India’s growing mutual fund business which currently manages Rs 38 trillion of assets.

IDFC Limited and IDFC Financial Holding Company Limited in its board meeting in September 2021 approved the divestment of its mutual fund (MF) business.

IDFC MF with assets under management (AUM) of over Rs 1.21 trillion as in the Jan-March quarter is one of the top ten players in the MF industry.

IDFC announced the sale of its MF business after the company faced shareholders' ire on delay in divestments and mergers.

In the last financial year, the fund house saw its profit after tax at Rs 144 crore compared to Rs 79.4 crore in FY20. Typically, deals in MFs take place between 5-7 per cent of the AUM. In many cases, valuations can increase if the fund house has a good amount of equity assets.

"The investors presentation of IDFC Limited shows that total income of IDFC AMC stood at Rs 108.4 crore for Q3FY22 as against Rs 100.7 crore in Q3FY21, a growth of 7.6 per cent. While profit after tax surged by 12.8 per cent to Rs 46.1 crore in the third quarter of last fiscal compared to Rs 40.8 crore in Q3FY21."

Also Read:- Services PMI rises to 53.6 in March on lifting of COVID restrictions

India's services activity improved in March, with the S&P Global India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to a three-month high of 53.6 from 51.8 in February.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a sub-50 print is a sign of contraction.

IHS Markit - the  compiler of the PMI - completed its merger with S&P Global on Febraury 28, leading to the renaming of the PMI for India as well as some other countries.

"Buoyed by the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, consumers were eager to go out and spend. Service providers recorded the fastest upturn in new business in 2022 so far, with an equal outcome seen for business activity," noted Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global.

While the rise in new work in March was characterised as "solid", it was driven by the domestic market, with new business from abroad declining. Worryingly, the fall in new business from abroad was the fastest since September 2021.

The real concern, however, were prices.

The increase in costs in March was the most in 11 years, with service providers experiencing higher chemical, fuel, raw material, retail, transportation, and vegetable costs.

"Inflation risks continued to curb business optimism regarding growth prospects, with sentiment among services companies remaining subdued by historical standards. This lack of confidence in the outlook also meant that employment continued to fall in March," De Lima added.

Service sector jobs fell again in March even as the PMI increased to the highest in three months. However, the loss of service sector jobs in March was "only marginal".

While some companies passed on the the higher costs to consumers, on the whole, the increase in prices paid by consumers was "moderate and broadly in line with its long-run average" as price hikes were capped by the need to obtain new work, according to anecdotal evidence.

Like the services PMI, the composite PMI for March also rose to a three-month high of 54.3. Data released on April 4 showed the S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI declined to 54.0 in March from 54.9 in February.

Climate tech is increasingly being seen as an exciting opportunity in the world of technology startups and venture capital, globally and in India. But it is not the first time that startups focused on climate and the environment are getting this attention. Over a decade ago, between 2006 and 2011, venture capitalists and PE investors poured in billions into ‘clean tech’ startups. But they never really saw the returns they were expecting. Hence, the question being asked today, and rightly so, is: is the climate tech opportunity real this time around?

Yes, the fundamentals and macro trends clearly suggest that the climate tech story will be significantly different this time. We are now seeing a unique confluence of trends in favour of climate tech. What are those key factors and macro trends?

One, the massive rise in climate-related disasters has had a significant economic and political impact. Droughts, floods, pollution, disrupted crop patterns, rise in ocean levels, destruction of bio-diversity, among other things, have been clearly destroying livelihoods, and imposing significant economic costs on nations. Two, national and international commitments to achieve net zero emissions are broadly starting to align, even if significant differences still remain. India notably also committed to achieving net zero by 2070.

Admittedly, both these factors were true earlier as well: climate-related disasters have been occurring for a long time now, and governments have claimed to be re-committed to sustainability. Yet, it is also clear that on both fronts, the ante has been upped — by nature on one hand, and by governments and non-state actors globally on the other.

Three, significant technological breakthroughs in recent years offer the biggest hope that climate tech could actually change the game this time around. Renewable energy production — especially of solar energy — has become cost effective and in many cases cheaper than fossil fuel-driven energy production. This hard economic reality is most likely to push up renewable energy production.

Also Read: AirAsia resumes flights between India and Malaysia, Thailand

AirAsia on Wednesday said it is resuming flights connecting India with Malaysia and Thailand from this month. After two years of coronavirus-induced suspension, India resumed regular international flights on March 27.

In a press release, Malaysian carrier AirAsia said flights will gradually resume on six routes between India and Malaysia. While the flights on Bengaluru-Kuala Lumpur and Chennai-Kuala Lumpur routes began on April 1, the flight on the Tiruchirapalli-Kuala Lumpur route began on April 5, it mentioned.

The flights on Kochi-Kuala Lumpur, Kolkata-Kuala Lumpur and Hyderabad-Kuala Lumpur routes will commence from April 18, April 23 and May 1, respectively, it noted. The Malaysian carrier said flights on five India-Thailand routes will begin in May.

The flights on Bengaluru-Bangkok, Chennai-Bangkok, Kolkata-Bangkok, Kochi-Bangkok and Jaipur Bangkok will commence on May 4, May 4, May 2, May 1 and May 1, respectively, it mentioned.

The asset quality of the Indian banking system is set to improve further with its gross non-performing assets (NPAs) estimated to decline to 5.6-5.7 per cent by March 2023 from 6.2-6.3 per cent in March 2022, according to ICRA.

The NPAs will decline to 1.7-1.8 per cent by end of the current financial year (FY23) as against an estimate of 2 per cent by March 2022.

However, the rating agency added a caveat saying the performance of restructured loan book poses uncertainty to asset quality. The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses macro-economic challenges related to cost inflation, higher interest rates, and exchange rate volatility, which could pressurise asset quality, it added.

The credit and other provisions are estimated to dip to 1.3-1.4 per cent of advances in FY23 as against an estimated 1.7-1.8 per cent in FY22, said Anil Gupta, vice president, ICRA.

ICRA expects the outlook for banks to be ‘stable’ in FY23, based on continued improvement in earnings driven by improved credit growth of 8.9-10.2 per cent in FY23 (8.3 per cent for FY22 & 5.5 per cent in FY21) and a decline in credit provisions.

Banking credit growth would come from the non-food segment which continues to be driven by retail and MSME segments, and partially by co-lending arrangements with non-banking finance companies (NBFCs).

The pace of deposit mobilisation is expected to slow down to 7.3-7.9 per cent in FY2023 (8.3 per cent in FY22e & 11.4 per cent in FY21).

Domestic passenger vehicle retail sales in March declined by 4.87 per cent to 2,71,358 units, as compared to the same month last year, automobile dealers' body FADA said on Tuesday. According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), PV sales stood at 2,85,240 units in March 2021.

"Passenger vehicles continue to see high demand and long waiting periods as semiconductor availability still remains a challenge, even though supplies slightly improved from previous month," FADA President Vinkesh Gulati noted. The Russia-Ukraine war and China lockdown will further dent supplies and will hit vehicle deliveries, he added.

Two-wheeler sales declined by 4.02 per cent to 11,57,681 units last month, as compared to 12,06,191 units in the year-ago period. "The two-wheeler segment was already a non performer due to rural distress. It saw further dampening due to rise in vehicle ownership cost coupled with rising fuel cost," Gulati stated.

Commercial vehicle sales were up 14.91 per cent to 77,938 units, as compared to 67,828 units in March last year. Three-wheeler sales were also up 26.61 per cent to 48,284 units last month, as compared to 38,135 units in March 2021.

The effect of the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger will be for the bigger space of the Indian financial sector and not just limited to the banking sector. The large finance companies have practically no benefit of regulatory arbitrage. Earlier, such arbitrage between banks and NBFCs was normal.

The logic of the merger is very clear — the cost of borrowing of banks is lower. The finance companies, including housing finance entities, have to rely on wholesale fund-raising from the market or borrowings from banks, both of which are relatively costly. Above a certain size, it becomes difficult to rely solely on the wholesale funding or bank borrowings.

Gradually, it may so happen that the large finance firms may eventually get converted into banks. This would be subject to Reserve Bank of India’s comfort and guidelines because shareholding of many big NBFCs is with large corporations.

The market views that there will be good cost savings and efficiency for the merged entity, especially on the infrastructure side, after witnessing the way share prices of HDFC and HDFC Bank behaved today. I do not see any regulatory issues cropping up for the merger. If there were such concerns, they would not have done it.

Another aspect about the consolidation which we have always been talking about is the need for a few large banks. The HDFC-HDFC Bank merger may trigger further consolidation in the banking sector as some banks may look for scale. In the public sector banking space, I do not think any further mergers can happen. In the private sector, I do not rule out the possibility of such activity. Maybe we are moving towards consolidation in the private sector for scale.

There is a need for India to have fewer large-size institutions, which can be counted amongst global banks. HDFC Bank is already the largest in terms of market capitalization and after the merger, it may be amongst top five-six banks globally. The merger action augments the ability to take big ticket loans and comes at a time when the capital investment is picking up.

There could be niche players supported by a digital backbone. Universal banks like HDFC operate on scale and even the digital platform requires huge investment now. The technology spend for the banks is going up and you need money.

Also Read:-  Fuel prices on April 5: Petrol, diesel prices hiked by 80 paise, total increase stands at Rs 9.20 per litre