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Credit Suisse investors’ choice: a big loss or a bigger loss

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Credit Suisse’s $4 billion fundraising was always going to be painful for shareholders, but with a deep discount on the new stock, their choice is only about how much of their ownership they want to lose.Credit Suisse Investors' Choice: a Big Loss or a Bigger Loss - Bloomberg

The capital-raising plan was unveiled last week alongside a high-risk strategic overhaul, which still only promised a weak target for a 6 percent return on tangible equity in three years’ time, if things go according to plan. That is far below the 10 percent cost of capital assumed for big banks. It means Credit Suisse expects to be destroying value when its restructuring is done.

But the details of the share sale, which the bank released on October 31, leave investors with no real choice at all. The fund raising kicks off with new shares for a group of strategic investors led by state-controlled Saudi National Bank, who together will put in about $1.8 billion for a 14.8 percent stake.

That’s to be followed by a $2.2 billion rights issue. That stock will be priced at just 2.52 Swiss francs ($2.51) per share, which is a 32 percent discount to the theoretical share price after all the new equity has been sold and based on the average share price over the final two days of last week. Having already seen new investors take a large stake, the rights issue will further dilute the claims of each share over Credit Suisse’s profit or book value by 22 percent.

Together, all the new shares lead to bottom-line dilution of earnings per share of almost 34 percent. That sounds horrible until you look at the dilution if shareholders don’t approve the strategic stake sale, which they are due to vote on at a November 23 meeting. Without the Saudi-led group, Credit Suisse would have to issue even more shares to raise the $4 billion it needs through a rights issue alone. The full dilution then would be 40 percent.

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