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Defence in 2020 | It’s been a low key, but profoundly interesting year

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The year 2020 was truly Annus Horribilis for people, governments and budgets. However, defence is probably one sector that didn’t get affected much. Buried in the year’s headlines of COVID-19, several defence deals and developments went unnoticed. Each of these was of long-term global and domestic significance.

Technologically the most important development was when Boeing Australia unveiled its ‘loyal wingman’ attack drone. Unlike current drones which have limited manoeuvrability, this is a full-fledged combat capable beast. Perhaps more importantly it thinks for itself in most situations.

The Achilles heel of the United States (and western) drone complex was that they require humans controlling them from ground stations. The problem with this is, that these drones are linked to their operators through satellite links, consuming huge amounts of incredibly expensive bandwidth for data, but also are highly vulnerable to an emerging generation of anti-satellite weapons.

The loyal wingman concept (and the similar but significantly less advanced Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B) does away with this, accomplishing large parts of its mission autonomously through artificial intelligence, but is also directly controlled by the manned aircraft it flies with, adding significantly to that aircraft’s lethality, while significantly reducing vulnerability. In many ways this concept marks the first significant step towards completely autonomous combat not dependant on humans (leaving aside the moral, legal and technological implications).

Politically, the Turkish order of a second batch of S-400 missile systems from Russia was the highlight of 2020. In a sense this decision is a microcosm of not just the deteriorating quality of decision-making in Ankara, but also the widening rift within NATO over Syria and Mediterranean gas reserves.

The year 2020 was truly Annus Horribilis for people, governments and budgets. However, defence is probably one sector that didn’t get affected much. Buried in the year’s headlines of COVID-19, several defence deals and developments went unnoticed. Each of these was of long-term global and domestic significance.

Technologically the most important development was when Boeing Australia unveiled its ‘loyal wingman’ attack drone. Unlike current drones which have limited manoeuvrability, this is a full-fledged combat capable beast. Perhaps more importantly it thinks for itself in most situations.

The Achilles heel of the United States (and western) drone complex was that they require humans controlling them from ground stations. The problem with this is, that these drones are linked to their operators through satellite links, consuming huge amounts of incredibly expensive bandwidth for data, but also are highly vulnerable to an emerging generation of anti-satellite weapons.

The loyal wingman concept (and the similar but significantly less advanced Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B) does away with this, accomplishing large parts of its mission autonomously through artificial intelligence, but is also directly controlled by the manned aircraft it flies with, adding significantly to that aircraft’s lethality, while significantly reducing vulnerability. In many ways this concept marks the first significant step towards completely autonomous combat not dependant on humans (leaving aside the moral, legal and technological implications).

Politically, the Turkish order of a second batch of S-400 missile systems from Russia was the highlight of 2020. In a sense this decision is a microcosm of not just the deteriorating quality of decision-making in Ankara, but also the widening rift within NATO over Syria and Mediterranean gas reserves.

Azerbaijan showed that the original intended purpose of drone — to attack tanks was still relevant but added a significant new paradigm of modern warfare — that drones operating in co-ordination with brigades of hired international terrorists (rather than against them) was a potent new battlefield equation.

Elsewhere Japan decided to operationalise its momentous decision to convert its ‘helicopter carrier’ into an aircraft carrier armed with F-35 fighters. Given Japan’s deep pockets, tenacity and technology, this will be the critical action that decides the balance of forces against China in this century.

Finally, there was India’s first ever lease of Reaper drones from the US. This marks the first break in the ‘buy foreign or buy Indian, but buy’ mentality of the forces. Taken to its logical conclusion, such leasing, could open up a whole new set of options in fixing India’s disturbingly deteriorating levels of combat equipment.

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