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India Q4 GDP: Inflation may have slowed down growth to just 4%, says poll

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A Reuters poll predicts India's FY22 GDP growth rate at 8.9 per cent while a Bloomberg survey suggest a growth rate of 8.7 per cent

indian economy

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the data for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Q4 FY22 and full financial year 2021-22 on Tuesday.

According to reports, Asia's third-largest economy is expected to accelerate in the January-March quarter from a year earlier.

GDP growth stood at 20.3 per cent in April-June quarter (Q1) of FY 2021-22 and 8.5 per cent in July-September quarter (Q2). During the third quarter of 2021-22, economic growth slowed to 5.4 per cent but was higher than China's GDP expansion of 4 per cent during the same period and the country retained its position as the world's fastest growing major economy.

As per the provisional estimates released in May 2021, the GDP had contracted by 7.3 per cent during 2020-21 on account of the outbreak of Covid-19 and subsequent nationwide lockdown to contain the pandemic. The NSO has also revised downward the real GDP growth number for 2019-20 to 3.7 per cent as against the earlier estimate of 4 per cent.

The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9 per cent as against a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21, according to Reuters.

According to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey, India is likely to register GDP growth of 8.7 per cent in FY 2021-22.

Earlier in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the benchmark repo rate by 40 basis points in an unscheduled meeting.

The rupee's nearly 4 per cent depreciation against the dollar this year has also made imported items costlier, prompting the federal government to restrict wheat and sugar exports and cut fuel taxes, joining the RBI in the battle against inflation.

According to a Reuters report, supply shortages and higher input prices were weighing on output in the mining, construction and manufacturing sector, even as credit growth has picked up and states are spending more.

The consumer sentiment slid in early May, dipping for the second month in a row, as rising fuel prices and broader inflation hit household finances, according to a Refinitiv.

The unemployment rate for persons of 15 years and above in urban areas slipped to 8.7 per cent in October-December 2021 from 10.3 per cent in the year-ago quarter, showed a NSO survey.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said last week that the central bank's primary focus was to bring inflation closer to its target but it could not disregard concerns around growth.

CII President TV Narendran said the Indian economy is expected to grow 7.5-8 per cent this fiscal year with exports playing a key role in the country's success story, however the country needs to remain prepared for any fallout of next wave of Covid-19 pandemic, and the impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Earlier, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have slashed India's FY23 growth forecast to 8 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively.