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With less than two months left for the U.S. presidential election, Asian investors are weighing its potential impact on markets in the region.
India and Japan are emerging as early focal points for analysts, given that benchmark stock gauges in both nations are still down for the year and trailing the 1.9% gain in the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index. Joe Biden has a 75.7% chance of winning, according to the Sept. 17 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model.
In Japan, the performance of the benchmark Topix Index has tended to weaken around the U.S. elections, mainly reflecting increased uncertainty, while the yen has often depreciated after the vote, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
A victory for Donald Trump or Republicans maintaining control of the Senate would reduce policy uncertainty, while a Biden victory and Democrats seizing control of both houses of Congress would likely mean a corporate tax-rate increase or other new policies
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