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Events to watch this week
US growth sees modest Q2 bounce-back
Fed: Balance sheet run off to commence “relatively soon”
IMF lowers US growth outlook, raises others'
US Senate debates Obamacare changes
Abe’s support slides as scandals mount
Trump backs corporate, middle-class tax cuts
The Week ahead:
Date | Country/Area | Release/Event |
Mon, 31 Jul | Japan | Industrial production |
Mon, 31 Jul | China | Non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index |
Mon, 31 Jul | eurozone | Unemployment report, consumer price index |
Tue, 1 Aug | Global | Manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices |
Tue, 1 Aug | eurozone | Q2 preliminary gross domestic product |
Tue, 1 Aug | United States | Personal income, spending, personal consumption expenditures |
Thu, 3 Aug | Global | Non-manufacturing purchasing managers indices |
For the week,Global equities rose a touch this week, with major US indices once again setting new highs. The yield on the US 10-year note rose six basis points to 2.30% on the week while the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose over $3 a barrel to $49.65. Volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), rose to 11.00 from 9.9 a week ago.
NIFTY- 10,014.50
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3192barrel
GOLD-Rs 28,580gram
Rs/$-Rs 64.15
MARKET ROUND UP
Market registered modest gains on positive global cues. The Nifty breached the psychologically important 10,000-mark for the first time. Both the Sensex, and the Nifty, attained record high levels. A bout of volatility was witnessed as traders rolled over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from July 2017 series to August 2017 series. The July 2017 derivatives contract expired on Thursday, 27 July 2017.
Overseas, US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged after the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, 26 July 2017. The Fed gave no clear signal about the chances for another increase this year or about any concerns about low inflation. But the central bank did confirm that it plans to begin to reduce its massive bond holdings relatively soon. The Fed had raised the target range for its federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1% to 1.25% during its June 2017 meeting.
Back home, the Sensex rose 280.99 points or 0.88% to settle at 32,309.88 in the week ended 28 July 2017. The Nifty 50 index advanced 99.25 points or 1% to settle at 10,014.50. Broader market trailed large caps. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index jumped 0.95%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.49%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
Macro Economic Front:
On the Economic Front,the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report on Monday, 24 July 2017, said that growth in India is expected to pick up further in 2017 and 2018 with global economic recovery remaining on track on the back of better performing emerging economies. IMF projects India to grow at 7.7% in 2018, estimating a significant increase against the backdrop of ongoing economic reforms. The IMF estimates a global growth rate of 3.5% this year, which is projected to increase to 3.6% in 2018.
In a key political development, Nitish Kumar formed new government in Bihar with the BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP). He took oath as Chief Minister of Bihar at 10:00 IST on Thursday, 27 July 2017. With oath Nitish Kumar ended his party, JDU's mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance with LaluYadav's RJD and the Congress last evening and joined hands with his former partner BJP.
Major Action &Announcement:
HDFC's net profit fell 16.84% to Rs 1555.74 crore on 3% fall in total income to Rs 8141.76 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The company announced its Q1 results during market hours on Wednesday, 26 July 2017. HDFC's board of directors at its meeting held on 26 July 2017, approved issue of secured, redeemable, non convertible debentures aggregating Rs 35000 crore on private placement basis.
HDFC Bank rose 4.26% to Rs 1,775.90 after net profit rose 20.22% to Rs 3893.84 crore on 14.81% growth in total income to Rs 22185.4 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced during market hours on Monday, 24 July 2017.
State Bank of India gained 3.05% to Rs 299.20. The bank announced on Wednesday, 26 July 2017, that its executive committee of the central board approved extension of validity period to raise the remaining additional tier I capital to the tune of Rs 2000 crore till 31 March 2018 and accordingly authorized bank to raise uptoRs 2000 crore additional tier I capital, by way of issue of Basel III compliant perpetual debt instruments in dollar and/or rupee, at par, through private placement to overseas and/or Indian investors.
ICICI Bank lost 1.73% to Rs 296 after net profit fell 8.21% to Rs 2049 crore on 0.52% growth in total income to Rs 16847.04 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 27 July 2017.
Axis Bank lost 4.66% to Rs 515. The bank's net profit fell 16.07% to Rs 1305.60 crore on 1.44% growth in total income to Rs 14052.30 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 25 July 2017.
Axis Bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 22030.87 crore as on 30 June 2017 as against Rs 21280.48 crore as on 31 March 2017 and Rs 9553.17 crore as on 30 June 2016. The ratio of gross NPAs to gross advances stood at 5.03% as on 30 June 2017 as against 5.04% as on 31 March 2017 and 2.54% as on 30 June 2016.
Maruti Suzuki India's operating EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) rose 5.3% to Rs 2331.20crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. Sales volume rose 13.2% to 3.94 lakh vehicles in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016.
Cigarette major ITC rose 0.95% to Rs 291.25 after net profit rose 7.4% to Rs 2561 crore on 4.3% growth in gross revenue to Rs 13722 crore in Q1 June 2017 over Q1 June 2016. The result was announced after market hours on Thursday, 27 July 2017.
Global Front:
In Overseas Markets,China will unveil manufacturing PMI data for July on Sunday, 30 July 2017. Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) data for July will be unveiled on Monday, 31 July 2017. US pending home sales data for June will be unveiled on Monday, 31 July 2017. US ADP non-farm employment change data for July will be unveiled on Wednesday, 2 August 2017. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data for July will be unveiled on Thursday, 3 August 2017. US Non-farm Payrolls data for May will be unveiled on Friday, 4 August 2017. US Unemployment Rate data for July will be unveiled on Friday, 4 August 2017.
Global Economic News:
US GDP rebounds from sluggish start to year
US economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, rising 2.6%, up from the first quarter’s 1.2% pace. Economists had expected a slightly stronger rebound, and the bounce is well short of expectations from earlier in the quarter. Wage pressures remain muted as hopes for sustained faster growth fade, given that pro-growth policies from Washington are looking less likely by the day. Modest growth averaging around 2% looks to be in the cards again in 2017. This should keep the US Federal Reserve on a gradual rate-hiking path.
Fed signals it’s ready to cut balance sheet soon
In a statement released after Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed indicated it is ready to begin trimming its balance sheet, which mushroomed in the wake of the global financial crisis. In a statement, the Fed said it expects to begin allowing some of its bond holdings to mature “relatively soon.” This is a shift from earlier language, released after the June FOMC meeting, that indicated a move by the end of the year. Many expect an announcement to come at the September FOMC meeting. The Fed held rates steady while acknowledging that inflation is running below its 2% target.
US health care push fizzles
Despite their effort being pronounced dead on several occasions, US Senate Republicans took up health care reform again this week after a dramatic return to the Capitol by Senator John McCain, who was recently diagnosed with brain cancer. Vice President Mike Pence broke a 50–50 tie to allow the Senate to begin debate on several Republican-sponsored legislative options. Ironically, McCain helped scuttle the final alternative, a “skinny repeal” bill that would have ended Obamacare’s individual mandate, among other provisions. Now that the health care bill has been defeated, Senate leaders hope to move on to tax reform and to passing a spending bill in order to avoid a government shutdown at the end of September.
Trump talks taxes
Amid a swirl of controversy, US president Donald Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal this week, reiterated his desire to slash the US corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% while lowering the tax burden on the middle class. Additionally, Trump kept open the option of raising taxes on upper-income earners. The president did not rule out reappointing Fed chair Janet Yellen, but said that economic advisor Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, is also under consideration for the post. In a press release on tax reform on Thursday, congressional leaders and administration officials agreed to table the border-adjustment tax that would have taxed US imports.
Moody’s sees less China bank risk
Credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded its outlook on the Chinese banking system to stable from negative. Moody's sees receding concerns over China’s massive shadow banking sector following action from regulators to curb systemic imbalances. It also expects nonperforming loans to stabilize near current levels.
GLOBAL CORPORATE NEWS
According to Thomson Reuters I/E/B/S, with 48% of the members of the S&P 500 Index reporting, second-quarter earnings are expected to rise 10.7% versus Q2 2016. Excluding the energy sector, the rise is 8%. Revenues are expected to climb 4.9%. Excluding energy, a 4.1% earnings rise is expected.
Greece returns to bond market after three-year hiatus
Having recently secured another bailout tranche from European creditors, Greece returned to the bond markets with a €3 billion five-year offering, which was more than two times oversubscribed. Greece is the rare sovereign that issues sovereign debt at a higher yield than some Greek corporates. The new issue yields 4.65% versus some recently issued corporate debt with a 3.1% yield. The extra yield reflects the political risk posed by Greece’s relatively market-unfriendly Syriza government.
NEW 52-WEEK HIGH BSE (A):
ADANIPORTS | 398.40 |
ASHOKLEY | 109.85 |
BRITANNIA | 3925.00 |
NEW 52-WEEK LOWS BSE (A):
MAJOR WEEKLY GAINERS IN BSE A CATEGORY(%):
GET&D INDIA | 21.04 |
YES BANK | 16.80 |
SUN PHARMA | 13.71 |
MAJOR WEEKLY LOSERS IN BSE A CATEGORY:
SREI INFRA | -13.23 |
LAKSHMI VILAS | -11.95 |
DR. REDDY | -10.79 |
Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:
Monday (31July)
Pending Home Sales Index
Tuesday (01 August)
PMI Manufacturing Index
Wednesday (02 August)
MBA Mortagage Applications
Thursday (03 August)
Jobless Claims & Factory Orders
Friday (04 August)
Employment Situation
TechnicalPick of the week:
Buy ACC Ltd For Target Rs.1,810.00
STOCK IN FOCUS
* ACC Ltd is in the strong up-trend as the stock price reversed after taking support of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of prior upmove (Rs1531-1597) and rose to seven day closing high.
* Rise in Stochastic post positive cross-over and reversal in RSI from sub-60 mark is also signaling strength in the stock.
* As per the current daily set-up, we believe that ACC Ltd will keep moving higher and soon record new life-time-high.
* In case of any negative surprise, the stock will find support around Rs1680, which is coinciding with the prior swing low and its shortterm moving average 20-day EMA.
* Thus, long position can be initiated at Rs1715 for the target of Rs1810 and with a strict stop loss of Rs1680.
MARKET OUTLOOK:
The market does appear to get a dizzy at heights and the late sell-off had a lot to do with the F&O expiry. While market-wide rollovers were in line with three-month average, Nifty rollovers were relatively lower than the previous three series. Nifty Open Interest is also at a calendar-year low as foreign investors The outlook is a subdued start. Global cues are mixed. While the Dow gained, the S&P and Nasdaq settled lower. Quarterly results are bringing in some swings and for the day numbers of Larsen & Toubro, Escorts and India Cements are scheduled. Investors will prefer to wait and watch before taking the plunge as the RBI policy meet takes place next week. The mid-cap segment, which has been defying gravity continues to soar higher.
Other technical observations
Nifty did gave long entry to Chopad Followers as we made high of 9919 and did 2 target on upside and close above 10000. Lets see How to trade Nifty in coming week as we approach the Monthly/RBI Policy and volatile time cycle from 31 Jul to 07 Aug.All target done on upside, for coming week above 10025 we can see fast move towards 10115/10157. Bearish below 9930 for a move towards 9877/9792.
Conclusion:
Yet another chartbuster week for the Indian equity markets as Nifty scaled past the 10000 milestone while Bank Nifty zoomed past the 25000 mark for the first time ever. Various government reforms, strengthening economy, chasing liquidity and cues from the US markets hitting fresh life-time highs have all fuelled the ongoing rally. Highlight of the week was sharp rally in HDFC, HDFC Bank, Yes Bank which gained 4-16% on decent set of results. From June lows of 9448, Nifty has rallied consecutively for the past four weeks gaining over 650 points or 7%. For the week, NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex gained by 1% each.
Besides, ongoing results season continued its impact on the market sentiment. Reliance Industries started off the week with a bang followed by decent numbers by Yes Bank and Hero MotoCorp. On the other hand, Dr Reddy’s Labs came out with dismal earnings; ONGC and ICICI Bank were a mixed bag. Furthermore, market-wide rollovers into August were just a little below average.