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The RBI’s state of the economy report enlists Franklin, Dostoyevsky, Paulo Coelho, Barack Obama, Shakespeare, and a number of lesser luminaries to drive home a message of relentless positivity

Back in January this year, RBI’s state of the economy report prognosticated that India will have a ‘glorious summer’. Seen in heartless hindsight, that remark was gloriously off the mark.

Has the devastating second wave of the pandemic changed the RBI’s tune? Well, it can hardly ignore reality. Its state of the economy report for April 2021 acknowledges the ‘ferocious rise of latest infections and mortalities’ and therefore the strained hospital facilities and vaccine supplies. But it then enlists the rather unlikely melange of Franklin, Dostoyevsky, Paulo Coelho, Barack Obama, Shakespeare, and a number of lesser luminaries to drive home a message of relentless positivity. Oh, it also has Valmiki.

Benjamin Franklin, says the state of the economy report, wont to say that energy and persistence conquer all things and once we strive to become better than we are, everything around us becomes better too.

Dostoyevsky, the guy who wrote ‘Crime and Punishment’ and ‘The Possessed’, is quoted by the report as saying that the key of man’s being isn't only to measure but to possess something to measure for. What then should we live for? The report clarifies: ‘India features a lot to measure for; among them is that the strong likelihood of being the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2021 and 2022.’

Paulo Coelho said there are some ways of going forward, but just one way of standing still. Barack Obama makes a cameo appearance within the report back to utter this homily: ‘hope within the face of difficulty. Hope within the face of uncertainty. The audacity of hope.’ Shakespeare talks of April’s spirit of youth.

If all this sounds a touch like ‘Chicken Soup for the economy’s soul’ from RBI, the state of the economy report also has Valmiki’s lyrical combat the monsoons, “the sky ‘will drink the waters of the ocean and provides birth to a liquid offspring, the elixir of life. The scorched earth will wear a robe of brilliant green.’ ’’ then, the report’s saying the forecast of excellent monsoons this year is that the ‘icing on the cake’ sounds rather flat.

What exactly is that the purpose of this quote fest? Infusing positivity into these dark times, of course. The message is to seem beyond the perilous present and transport ourselves into an excellent future. The report’s summation of the present horror show? ‘This too shall pass.’

What is the idea of the central bank’s positivity? It says, ‘It is noteworthy that economic activity in India is holding up admirably against COVID -19’s renewed onslaught. Much attention has been drawn to the wilting of incoming data within the face of the second wave and localized restrictions. Yet, it's important to notice that it's the sentiment indicators that have moderated. aside from contact-intensive sectors, activity indicators largely remained resilient in March and grew beyond pre-pandemic levels on the rear of strong momentum instead of statistical base effects.’ Yes, but that was in March. Isn’t this report alleged to provides a more up-to-date picture of the economy?

It is perfectly legitimate to supply optimistic combat the economy. There are signs that infections have peaked in some parts of the country. Analyzing seroprevalence surveys could yield some excellent news. A forecast about the pace of vaccinations would help. But the RBI report does none of that. It resolutely ignores the negatives—the lack of credit growth, or the downturn in industrial growth even before the second wave hit. All it does is say that the majority indicators were flashing green in March, but that was before the second wavelet loose havoc across the country. rather than analysis, the report offers bromides.

It is much more pessimistic when it talks of worldwide conditions, remarking that, ‘The near-term outlook remains fragile as rapid mutations of the virus, concerns over vaccine efficacy with reference to newer strains, mounting vaccine vacillation and uneven vaccine availability across economies pose downside risks. Furthermore, rallying commodity prices on demand-supply imbalances, alongside continued monetary and monetary support, entails upside risks for inflation, especially for EMEs, which squeezes policy headroom to support the recovery, going forward.’

To be fair, a couple of negatives on the domestic economy also slip through. The report says, as an example, that the growing infections and restrictions on businesses have ‘imparted high uncertainty to the outlook.’ It also warns that if the second wave isn't contained soon and therefore the restrictions linger, disruptions in supply chains could lead on to inflationary pressures.

It has the standard statutory warnings for bond vigilantes, remarking that GSAP 1.0, which it calls a Brahmastra, is simply the start, which suggests there are weapons bigger even than the Brahmastra in RBI’s arsenal. Its message for the bond markets is that they should hear central banks.

The writers of the state of the economy report know all right that it'd encounter as rather over the highest. that's why they assert, ‘one view is that we are too optimistic. Yes, confronted with a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic with no known cure thus far, with infections and deaths that have drawn comparison to the Spanish flu of 1918, we've dared to stay the religion and dream a few COVID-vanquished worlds.’

To those poetic words, they ought to perhaps have added a few of lines from Wordsworth, to form it truly epic: ‘And then my heart with pleasure fills/And dances with the daffodils.

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Experts fear the restrictions will hit economic activity and earnings of India Inc in the upcoming June quarter. Though the impact will be felt on a sequential basis, on a YoY basis, the results will be strong, they say.

 Many state governments, over the weekend, have extended lockdown as COVID-19 cases rise across the country to hit a record 3.49 lakh cases in a single day, as on April 25.

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To enable ministries/departments expedite capital expenditure, it said, the cash management guidelines issued by the Ministry of Finance under the OM of 2017 have been relaxed.

In a bid to boost the economy grappling with the fresh COVID-19 wave, the Finance Ministry has relaxed the spending guidelines to enable ministries and departments to undertake capital expenditure totalling Rs 44,000 crore envisaged in the budget for 2021-22.

According to an office memorandum (OM) issued by the Finance Ministry on Thursday, the monthly/quarterly expenditure plan (MEP/QEP) ceilings and restrictions will not apply for expenditure under the capital heads under the budget.

To enable ministries/departments expedite capital expenditure, it said, the cash management guidelines issued by the Ministry of Finance under the OM of 2017 have been relaxed.

"Monthly Expenditure Plan (MEP) or Quarterly Expenditure Plan (QEP) ceilings and restrictions on bulk expenditure items referred in the OM dated August 21, 2017, shall not be applicable for expenditure under the capital heads under the Budget. These relaxations shall take immediate effect and shall apply until further orders," it added.

According to the guidelines, the bulk expenditure items of more than Rs 2,000 crore were timed in the last month of each quarter to utilise the direct tax receipt inflows in June, September, December and March.

Similarly, big releases of Rs 200 crore to Rs 2,000 crore were timed between the 21st and 25th of a month to take advantage of the GST inflows. These restrictions have been removed with the latest OM.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Budget 2021-22 had announced a sharp increase in capital expenditure and provided Rs 5.54 lakh crore, which is 34.5 per cent more than the Budget Estimate (BE) of 2020-21.

"Of this, I have kept a sum of more than Rs 44,000 crore in the Budget head of the Department of Economic Affairs to be provided for projects/ programmes/departments that show good progress on Capital Expenditure and are in need of further funds," she had said.Over and above this expenditure, the government would also be providing more than Rs 2 lakh crore to states and autonomous bodies for their Capital Expenditure, she had said.

In the BE 2020-21, the government provided Rs 4.12 lakh crore for Capital Expenditure. It was revised upwards to 4.39 lakh crore.

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This is a big transaction and the size of the IPO is likely to be around Rs 7,700 crore, with a primary component of around Rs 4500 crores and the balance making up the secondary component. The price band is likely to be announced on April 29, sources said.

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Stocks like Apollo Hospitals rose over 4 percent, Cadila Healthcare rallied over 5 percent, and Max Healthcare witnessed profit booking after hitting a fresh 52-week high on Tuesday.

Indian markets registered a negative close for the second consecutive day in a row on Tuesday which pushed the Sensex below 48000 and Nifty50 below 14300 levels.

Selling pressure was seen in IT, FMCG, finance, and banking stocks. Pharma sector outperformed and the S&P BSE Healthcare index closed with gains of 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

Stocks like Apollo Hospitals rose over 4 percent, Cadila Healthcare rallied over 5 percent, and Max Healthcare witnessed profit booking after hitting a fresh 52-week high on Tuesday.

Here's what Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in, recommends investors should do with these stocks when the market resumes trading today:

Apollo Hospitals: Hold

This counter appears to be in a multi-week consolidation phase as it is moving in a broader range of Rs 3284 – 2787 levels for the last 8 weeks.

Hence, for the further sustainable rally, it needs a breakout above Rs 3284 levels on a closing basis. In that scenario, a bigger target of Rs 3580 can be expected.

However, failure to get past Rs 3284 may force the bulls to give up some of the gains. Nevertheless, a dip close to Rs 3000 can be a good opportunity to create fresh longs.

For time being, traders are advised to hold with a stop below Rs 3181 on a closing basis whereas, a breakout above Rs 3284 can also be considered as a fresh buying opportunity for a target of Rs 3580.

Cadila Healthcare: Book Profits

This counter registered a new lifetime high with a test of Rs 560 registered in 2017. However, momentum on the weekly charts seems to be dwindling down with indecisive formations.

Hence, short-term traders should book profits, if this counter fails to register a sustainable close above Rs 560 by the end of this week.

Any weakness from current levels may drag it down towards Rs 535 which can be considered as a buying opportunity to create fresh long positions.

If it manages a sustainable close above Rs 560 levels, then based on long-term charts a higher target of Rs 670 can be projected over a period of time.

Max Health Care: Books Profits

This counter appears to be in a short-term consolidation phase as it is moving sideways between the range of Rs 237 – 212 levels.

Even in the last trading session, it managed to get past the said resistance point on an intraday basis but encountered selling pressure at the higher end of the range. Hence, failure to register a breakout above Rs 240 on a closing basis may drag it down towards Rs 220 where one can consider fresh long positions with a stop below Rs 217 on a closing basis.In case if it manages a close above Rs 240 then a higher target of Rs 270 can be expected. For the time being, traders will be better off to book profits and wait for either a dip towards Rs 220 or a breakout above Rs 240.

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In a fresh twist to the battle for oxygen between Delhi and the Centre, the Delhi High Court has issued a notice of contempt to the country's largest medical oxygen manufacturer Inox, citing non-compliance with the court order.

On April 19, the Delhi High Court court directed Inox not to divert supplies from Delhi to other places after a petition was filed on the matter. The counsel for the Delhi government has informed the court that the company has violated the court order and did not supply it to the state.

The High Court said: "We direct M/s Inox to honour its contract with the Delhi government and hospitals and continue to supply oxygen and restore 140 metric tonnes supply immediately." However, due to the non-compliance on this, the Delhi High Court has directed Inox managing director or owner to be present in the court on April 21.

On the other hand, the company supplied Oxygen to Delhi's GTB Hospital which was running short of oxygen last night. On April 29, Delhi Health Minister Satyendar Jain had said that GTB Hospital was running out of medical oxygen. Following this, an oxygen tanker reached the hospital at around 1:30 am on April 21, saving the lives of over 500 critical COVID-19 patients. On April 20, Delhi recorded the highest single-day spike in COVID-19 cases adding 28,395 cases. Though the state had sought 700 metric tonnes of oxygen per day from the Centre, it was allocated only 300 metric tonnes.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal also asked the Centre through a tweet to provide the supply of oxygen immediately as the state is facing a serious shortage of gas. States like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh are facing a heavy shortage of life-saving gas. Hospitals in these high-burden states are having a stock of only one day off oxygen compared to three days before.

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On Thursday India reported 200,739 infections over the past 24 hours, a seventh daily record in the last eight days, while 1,038 deaths took its toll to 173,123. Its tally of 14.1 million infections is second only to the United States.

Record PHOTO: A wellbeing official draws a portion of the AstraZeneca's COVID-19 immunization fabricated by the Serum Institute of India, at Infectious Diseases Hospital in Colombo, Sri Lanka January 29, 2021. REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte/File Photo 

Subsequent to gifting and selling a huge number of COVID-19 immunization dosages abroad, India unexpectedly gets itself shy of shots as new contaminations flood on the planet's second-most crowded country. 

India penetrated 200,000 day by day diseases interestingly on Thursday, and is attempting to immunize a greater amount of its populace utilizing locally delivered shots. 

Confronting taking off cases and flooding medical clinics after lockdown limitations were facilitated, it likewise unexpectedly changed the guidelines to permit it to quick track immunization imports, having prior rebuked unfamiliar drugmakers like Pfizer. 

It will import Russia's Sputnik V immunization beginning this month to cover upwards of 125 million individuals. 

The inversion in fortunes could hamper not exclusively India's fight to contain the pandemic, yet additionally immunization crusades in excess of 60 more unfortunate nations, mostly in Africa, for quite a long time. 

The COVAX program, sponsored by the World Health Organization and Gavi antibody coalition, focuses on fair immunization access all throughout the planet, and is depending intensely on provisions from India, Asia's drug force to be reckoned with. 

However, so far this month India has just traded around 1.2 million antibody dosages. That contrasts and 64 million portions transported abroad between late January and March, as indicated by information from the unfamiliar service. 

An authority with information on India's antibody system said that accessible shots would be utilized locally while the nation confronted an "crisis circumstance". 

"There is no obligation to different nations," he said. 

India's unfamiliar service, which manages antibody manages different nations, said a week ago that Indian interest would direct the degree of fares. 

Coming about deficiencies are now being felt in certain nations in the COVAX conspire, and a U.N. wellbeing official associated with the immunization rollout in Africa said: "To be so dependent on one producer is a gigantic concern." 

The overseer of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, said recently delays in provisions from India could be "calamitous". 

Four sources associated with conversations on immunization supplies and acquisition said factors remembering delays by India and COVAX for putting in firm requests, an absence of interest underway, crude material deficiencies and disparaging the Covid flood at home had added to antibody deficiencies. 

The Serum Institute of India (SII), the world's greatest immunization producer, had pledged to convey in any event 2 billion COVID-19 shots to low and center pay nations, with almost 50% of that before the finish of 2021. 

Yet, it has additionally felt obligated to address the issues of different governments, including Britain, Canada and Saudi Arabia, in the midst of AstraZeneca's worldwide creation issues. 

The United States, in the mean time, ring-fenced the inventory of key hardware and crude materials for its own immunization producers, restricting SII's tasks and deferring by months its objective of raising month to month yield to 100 million from up to 70 million presently, said one of the sources. 

A further beginning obstacle to SII's inventory desire was India's dithering in submitting firm requests, two sources said. 

That might have permitted it to help yield of the AstraZeneca immunization early, despite the fact that controllers presently couldn't seem to endorse it. 

India went through months examining the last cost per portion, and inked an underlying buy request approximately fourteen days after India's medication controller endorsed the AstraZeneca shot, as per the sources. 

At a certain point, SII ran out of space to store delivered dosages. 

"That is the reason I decided not to pack in excess of 50 million dosages, since I knew whether I stuffed more than that, I would need to store it in my home," SII Chief Executive Adar Poonawalla told Reuters in January. 

He said he had burned through 20 billion rupees ($272 million) on the 50 million portions that the organization began accumulating since around October. 

Indeed, even now, the public authority just makes specially appointed buys from SII as opposed to concurring a more extended term supply plan, said one of the sources. 

He  has looked for more than $400 million from the public authority to build limit, however no responsibility has yet been made. 

The wellbeing office and unfamiliar service didn't react to demands for input on issues of subsidizing, buying delays and different parts of India's immunization rollout. 

COVAX CONUNDRUM 

COVAX additionally didn't green-light shipments to partaking nations from SII until after the shot got WHO freedom in mid-February, said a source engaged with the COVAX activity. 

The source said those postpones implied a huge number of extra dosages that the SII might have created among October and February won't ever emerge. 

Gavi safeguarded its choice to sit tight for appropriate endorsements prior to proceeding with firm requests. And keeping in mind that it is searching for additional providers, it yielded that much actually relied upon India's antibody creators who represent some 60% of worldwide supplies. 

COVAX has an arrangement to purchase 1 billion or more portions from the SII. Be that as it may, it has gotten not exactly a fifth of the 100 million or so portions of the SII-made AstraZeneca immunization it had expected by May. SII is likewise expected to make a huge number of portions of the Novavax went for COVAX. 

Gavi had trusted SII would completely continue antibody conveyances to COVAX in May, yet on Wednesday it said India's COVID-19 emergency could influence that. 

"We comprehend the savagery of the infection in India at the current time, by and by we trust and anticipate that deliveries should continue quickly," it said in an email to Reuters. 

On Thursday India announced 200,739 diseases in the course of recent hours, a seventh day by day record over the most recent eight days, while 1,038 passings caused significant damage to 173,123. Its count of 14.1 million diseases is second just to the United States. 

Having initially expected to cover 300 million of its most noteworthy danger individuals by August, or a little more than a fifth of its 1.35 billion populace, the public authority has now extended that by another 100 million, with the guarantee to augment it further.

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The Maharashtra government on Tuesday announced a 15-day statewide curfew from Wednesday amid the spike in coronavirus cases in the state. The curfew, which exempts essential services, will come into effect from 8 pm on Wednesday

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We suggest buying in gold around Rs 46300 with a stop loss of Rs 46100 for the target of Rs 46700, and in silver around Rs 65800 with a stop loss of Rs 65200 for the target of Rs 67000, suggest experts.

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Considering the continues long unwinding followed by short in the end of the week in the Bank Nifty, it is prudent to approach the Bank Nifty with low-risk strategy as Modified Put Butterfly.

Wide intra week swing was seen in Nifty in the previous week. Clever began the week with substantial choppiness losing around 2% in a solitary meeting. Pullback in the followed days assisted Nifty with recovering the degree of 15000 once more. 

Over the course of the week Nifty spun inside 14500-15000 level and finished the week down 0.5%. On the Nifty Fut. Open Interest (OI) side, OI Built-up was almost 5%. 

Bank Nifty was more compacted with the selling pressure throughout the week. Bank Nifty slipped right from 34000 to 32250 almost (1700 focuses), finishing the week at 32600 losing more than 4.5%. 

Taking a gander at the Nifty week after week expiry alternative information, imperative obstruction remains at 15000 level followed by the 15500 level. On the drawback, 14500 stands as prompt help level and Highest Put OI remains at 13500 level going about as the indispensable help on the lower side. 

Bank Nifty OI (Open Interest) information shows the more extensive territory for week after week expiry. Be that as it may, Call authors are more dynamic contrasted with Put journalists and seen adding position till 40000CE strike. Bank Nifty indispensable opposition remains at 33000 followed by 34000. 

As of now, Bank Nifty is exchanging at the imperative help level of 32500, further any OI Unwinding at this level could lead Bank Nifty to fall more, further help remains at 32000 level. 

India VIX has spiked more than 6% from 19.99 to 21.21. Notwithstanding, cool off in the IV from its undeniable level has given solidarity to Nifty. India VIX has declined bit by bit over the course of the week to 19.8 level from its high 21.2. VIX shut at the degree of 19.8 contrasted with 19.99 last Friday. 

Taking a gander at the nostalgic pointer, Nifty OIPCR for the week has declined from 1.358 to 1.288. Bank Nifty OIPCR over the course of the week, additionally declined from 0.88 to 0.72 contrasted with last Friday. Generally speaking information demonstrates higher Put journalists versus bring scholars over the course of the week for the Nifty and Bank Nifty. 

Moving further to the week by week commitment of areas to Nifty. IT has offered help by 133, trailed by peripheral help from Metal (40 focuses). Though PVT Bank drove the destruction by contributing - 225 focuses to Nifty. 

Looking towards the top gainer and washout loads of the week in the FnO section, JSW Steel beat by acquiring around 22%, trailed by Cadila Healthcare (17%), Lal Pathlab (16%). While UBL lost 11% followed by PVR and Bajaj Finance (- 7.5% each). 

End: Considering the proceeds with long loosening up followed by short toward the week's end in the Bank Nifty, it is reasonable to move toward the Bank Nifty with generally safe procedure as Modified Put Butterfly.

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