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India's top retailer, Reliance, has privately defended an abrupt takeover of the stores of debt-laden rival Future Retail, saying mounting dues of $634 million compelled it to act beyond expectations, a company letter shows.

The takeover was part of the race to dominate a $900-billion retail sector that set off a bitter dispute in which India's Supreme Court will decide whether Reliance or Amazon.com Inc gets to scoop up Future's assets.

The March 8 letter, seen by Reuters, reveals for the first time Reliance's stance on the events of the night of Feb. 25, when staff suddenly showed up at many of its rival's stores to take control over missed lease payments.

That move stunned not only Future but also Amazon, which has cited violation of certain contracts to legally block, since 2020, a $3.4-billion deal between the two Indian giants.

In the letter, Reliance said it went "well and truly beyond what can be expected" to keep Future "out of harm's way," as it took "significant steps" to ensure business continuity at Future and make sure there was "no impediment" to their deal.

These steps included financial support of 48 billion rupees ($634 million), comprising 11 billion rupees of unpaid lease rentals and 37 billion rupees of working capital.

Over months, Reliance had taken over the leases of more than 900 of Future's 1,500 stores, while still allowing the company to run them.

As Future proved unable to pay outstanding dues and losses in its retail operations swelled, Reliance faced "compelling circumstances" and decided to exercise its legal right to take over the stores, the letter added.

Neither Reliance nor Future immediately responded to a request for comment.

Future, which is staring at bankruptcy as its losses grow, has previously called Reliance's move "drastic and unilateral".

Before Amazon blocked it, Reliance, led by India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, had proposed a $3.4-billion deal to buy Future's retail, wholesale and logistics operations, as well as some other businesses.

But following Reliance's abrupt takeover of its stores, Future sought several assurances in a March 2 letter, also seen by Reuters, asking if Reliance would stick to the deal without changing its value or terms.

In its response on March 8, Reliance said Future's request for assurances had to be seen "in the light of the rapidly evolving circumstances".

It added, "As and when the scheme (deal) is implemented, it will be in accordance with its terms."

Also Read: Centre's fiscal deficit jumps to 82.7% of FY22 target in April 2021-February 2022

The Centre's fiscal deficit jumped to 82.7 percent of the FY22 target in April 2021-February 2022, data released on March 31 by the Controller General of Accounts showed.

The fiscal deficit had amounted to 76.0 percent of the full-year target for the corresponding period of FY21.

While the latest numbers on the government's finances continue to show the Centre is on track to meet its revised fiscal deficit target of 6.9 percent of GDP for FY22, February saw a sharp rise in the deficit.

The fiscal deficit had amounted to 58.9 percent of the full-year target in April 2021-January 2022.

In February, the Centre recorded a fiscal deficit of Rs 3.79 lakh crore, more than double of what it posted in the corresponding period last year.

Also Read: US calls India's stand on Russian sanctions 'deeply disappointing'

The U.S. and Australia criticized India for considering a Russian proposal that would undermine sanctions imposed by America and its allies, showing a deepening rift between the emerging security partners as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Delhi for talks.

“Now is the time to stand on the right side of history, and to stand with the United States and dozens of other countries, standing up for freedom, democracy and sovereignty with the Ukrainian people, and not funding and fueling and aiding President Putin’s war,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told reporters in Washington on Wednesday. She called reports of the arrangement “deeply disappointing,” while adding that she hadn’t seen details.

Dan Tehan, Australia’s trade minister who also spoke at the briefing, said it was important for democracies to work together “to keep the rules-based approach that we’ve had since the second world war.”

The comments reflect growing unease with India among fellow members of the Quad, a group of democracies seeking to counter China’s assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region that also includes the U.S., Australia and Japan. India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, and has also sought to buy cheap oil as fuel prices surge.

ALSO READ: US official warns India, others against increasing Russian oil imports

While India has supported calls for a cease-fire and a diplomatic solution, it abstained at the United Nations on votes for draft resolutions condemning Russia’s invasion that were ultimately vetoed by Moscow. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that India is weighing a plan to make rupee-ruble-denominated payments using an alternative to SWIFT after the U.S. and European Union cut off seven Russian banks from using the Belgium-based cross-border payment system operator.

The Russian plan involves rupee-ruble-denominated payments using the country’s messaging system SPFS and central bank officials from Moscow are likely to visit next week to discuss the details. No final decision has been taken.

India’s middle-ground position on the war has left to a raft of diplomacy in the past few weeks, with China’s foreign minister visiting for the first time since 2019 and now Lavrov seeking to shore up support. At the same time, the U.S. and its allies are also stepping up engagement in a bid to influence Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

ALSO READ: Steel, fuel prices to impact domestic steel demand in coming quarters: SteelMint

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Delhi earlier this month, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison also held a video summit with Modi. On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a call with his counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, to discuss “the worsening humanitarian situation in Ukraine” among other issues.

During Lavrov’s trip, India is also hosting U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics Daleep Singh and U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. Her office said she “will point to the importance of all countries reducing strategic dependency on Russia at this time of heightened global insecurity.”

India has pushed back against U.S. concerns by noting that it needs Russian arms to counter China, particularly after border clashes in 2020, and alternatives are too expensive. The strategic relationship between India and Russia dates back to the Cold War and remains robust, even as Modi has shifted the country more toward the U.S. orbit in recent years.

The domestic steel demand is expected to take a hit in the coming quarters due to "very high steel prices" and continuously rising fuel prices, according to industry consultancy SteelMint India. Steel prices in India are trading at an all-time high.

While hot-rolled coil (HRC) is quoting in the range of Rs 76,000-77,000 per tonne, cold-rolled coil (CRC) is costing between Rs 85,000-86,000 per tonne. Rebar price stands at Rs 72,000-73,000 a tonne, SteelMint India said on Thursday.

Steel prices in India are trading at an all-time high. While hot-rolled coil (HRC) is quoting in the range of Rs 76,000-77,000 per tonne, cold-rolled coil (CRC) is costing between Rs 85,000-86,000 per tonne. Rebar price stands at Rs 72,000-73,000 a tonne, SteelMint India said on Thursday.

In the domestic market, prices of HRC in the first week of March were in the range of Rs 68,000-69,000 a tonne, while CRC was at Rs 73,000-74,000 per tonne. Rebar was costing about Rs 67,500-68,500 a tonne. SteelMint said it "expects demand to be negative in coming quarters on rising steel prices and higher fuel prices, which may defer buying activities".

The government on Thursday hiked petrol, diesel prices by 80 paise a litre each, the 9th increase in 10 days, taking the total hike to Rs 6.40 a litre. Rising fuel prices will impact the logistics for the supply of steel items which may also impact the demand, the consultancy said.

According to SteelMint, domestic steel consumption is likely to be at 98 million tonnes in April 2021-March 2022.

Read Also:- Role of IT in the Stock Market

India’s economy is “vulnerable” because of its increasing fiscal deficit and retail inflation, and indirect exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war, according to a report by Nomura on Emerging Markets.

The report has analysed the resilience and vulnerability of 20 major EM economies, taking into account recent stressors and the countries’ fundamental financials.

Poor fiscal health

The report said that while budget deficits have ballooned in nearly all countries due to the pandemic, resulting in higher public debt ratios, some countries such as India are in a worse shape than others. It clubbed India with Brazil, Hungary, South Africa and China, while it grouped the better offs as Russia, Peru, Chile and Turkey. 

To control inflation and reduce its impact on poorer households, India may need to consider increased subsidies for fuel.

The report stated “large net importers of food and energy may need to impose price controls or increased food and fuel subsidies to limit the rise in inflation, thereby cushioning the cost-of-living impact on poorer households but at the cost of larger budget deficits”.

It stated, “The surge in commodity prices – notably food prices, which have a much larger weighting in the CPI baskets of EM countries than their DM counterparts – will result in more EM countries joining the double-digit inflation camp (Russia could soon join Turkey with over 50% inflation). Even in Asia, where inflation has been relatively low, prices are set to accelerate”.

The country’s indirect-exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war comes from its fertiliser imports. Thirty percent of India’s fertiliser imports come from Russia and Belarus.

Hanging on commodity prices

In the overall assessment, India has been placed among economies that have “relatively sound fundamentals and will benefit once commodity prices decline”. The other countries in this group are China, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. 

Titled ‘Beware of painting all EMs with the same brush’, the report has classified the 20 countries into three. Countries with weak economic fundamentals and high negative exposure to Russia and Ukraine via high commodity prices as vulnerable; countries with fairly healthy fundamentals, limited exposure to the two warring countries and that could benefit from high commodity prices as resilient; and countries that have relatively sound fundamentals and will benefit once commodity prices decline as ‘commodity-dependent group’

India falls in the commodity-dependent group. Hungary, Romania, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Russia fall under the ‘vulnerable’ group  and Brazil,Peru, Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia come under the ‘resilient group’.

Logistics company Delhivery aims to launch its initial public offering (IPO) in the June 2022 quarter, said investment bankers who know about the plans.

The Gurugram-based company filed in November its draft red herring prospectus with market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). It got Sebi’s approval for the IPO in January.

Challenging market conditions due to the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and Russia’s attack on Ukraine have roiled the IPO market after a record-breaking 2021.

"The market has seen an improvement in the past one week amid talks of ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. If market conditions continue to improve, we can see large issuances such as Delhivery launch their share sale," said a banker. Four IPOs have got launched in the past one week compared to just three between January and February.

Delhivery IPO is pegged to be around Rs 7,000 crore. It is India’s largest multimodal, fully-integrated logistics and supply-chain firm by revenues (FY21 basis).

Brokerage Motilal Oswal said in in a recent note the domestic logistics sector offers a large addressable opportunity as it is pegged to grow at an annualized rate of 9 per cent to $365 billion between FY20 and FY26. It expects the growth to be higher for the organised players due to their “relentless focus on technology and automation.”

At present, the logistics market is highly fragmented with organized players accounting for less than 4 per cent of market share. Motilal Oswal said the shift to unorganised to organized sector is already underway.

“This shift has gathered pace with the rollout of GST, which increased demand for national, integrated supply chain service providers with integrated warehousing and Transportation models, that allow customers to scale operations at lower fixed costs, while creating opportunities for optimizing footprints and capacity utilization, lesser inventory, and faster and cheaper fulfillment,” said Alok Deora and Dhirendra Patro, who are analysts at Motilal Oswal, in a note.

As per the brokerage, some of the key positives of Delhivery are an asset-light business model, diverse customer base, and sophisticated network infrastructure.

Motilal Oswal said Delhivery has proprietary technology systems that enable it to offer integrated logistics services to a wide variety of customers. Its technology stack consists of over 80 applications that encompass all supply chain processes.