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India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at the same annual average rate during the terms of the United Progressive Alliance and National Democratic Alliance governments, at least until the coronavirus pandemic struck.

According to new data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India's GDP grew at an annual average rate of 6.8 percent from 2004-05 to 2013-14—the 10 years Manmohan Singh was the prime minister (PM).

In the first six years of Narendra Modi's tenure as PM—before the pandemic struck and pushed India into a recession—India's GDP again grew by 6.8 percent on an average from 2014-15 to 2019-20.

If the two pandemic-hit years of 2020-21 and 2021-22 are taken into account, the average GDP growth rate under Modi drops to 5.4 percent.

The recently-released annual GDP growth data stretches back to 1951-52. Until now, comparable growth rates for the current GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year was available only till 2005-06.

The current GDP series, introduced by the statistics ministry in early 2015, attracted heavy criticism as it showed a big jump in growth even as high-frequency indicators painted a grimmer picture. For instance, the new series raised the GDP growth rate for 2013-14 to 6.9 percent from 4.7 percent under the previous series.

This number has subsequently been revised down to 6.4 percent.

The statistics ministry attributed the revision to a shift in focus to measuring value-addition based on a wider dataset of corporate earnings from volume-based growth in manufacturing.

However, comparison across years was difficult as the new series only provided growth rates starting from 2012-13. This led to calls for a 'back series'.

Back series controversy

In July 2018, the Sudipto Mundle-led committee on real sector statistics, set up by the National Statistical Commission, said India clocked a growth of 10.8 percent in 2010-11 as per the new GDP series. This was higher than the 8.9 percent estimated under the old series.

Further, the committee's estimates showed GDP growth averaged 8.0 percent per year during the 10 years of the Singh government as per the new series, while growth in Modi's first four years as PM averaged 7.3 percent per year.

These numbers spilt over into the political arena, with the Congress saying the data proved "like-for-like, the economy under both UPA terms outperformed the Modi govt (sic)".

However, a month later in August 2018, the statistics ministry said the GDP back series given by the committee on real sector statistics was not official but only "experimental results".

The official GDP back series, released in November 2018, showed GDP grew 7.4 percent per year on average from FY15 to FY18. Meanwhile, the annual average GDP growth rate for the last nine years of Singh's tenure as PM was revised to 6.7 percent, leading to another outcry and accusations of political interference in the calculation of India's official statistics, especially with the 2019 general elections just around the corner.

Full comparability

The numbers now released (external link) by the statistics ministry allow comparisons to be made across several decades. Some of the striking highlights are as follows:

The 6.6 percent contraction in the GDP in 2020-21 is the largest ever since 1951-52. The next worst year was 1979-80, when the GDP contracted by 5.2 percent.

>> Since 1951-52, India's GDP has contracted on six occasions: by 6.6 percent in 2020-21, 5.2 percent in 1979-80, 2.6 percent in 1965-66, 0.6 percent in 1972-73, 0.4 percent in 1957-58 and 0.1 percent in 1966-67.

>> The 2021-22 GDP growth rate of 8.7 percent is India's fourth-highest since 1951-52. The highest rate of growth of 9.6 percent was recorded in 1988-89. As such, India has never hit double-digit growth when it comes to real GDP.

The finance ministry has come out with draft SoP for facilitating e-commerce jewellery exports through courier route, as it looks to provide a simplified regulatory framework for manufacturers and traders who want to export jewellery.

The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) has invited feedback and suggestions from stakeholders by June 14 on the Standard Operating Procedure (SoP) for implementation of a simplified regulatory framework to facilitate export of jewellery made of precious metals and imitation jewellery through e-commerce in courier mode.

The CBIC also proposes to amend the Courier Imports and Exports (Electronic Declaration and Processing) Regulations, 2010, and related forms and come out with a notification prescribing conditions for reimport of returned jewellery and has invited views from stakeholders on the same.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had in the 2022-23 Budget announced implementation of a

simplified regulatory framework to facilitate export of jewellery through e-commerce.

Subsequently stakeholder consultations, including those with the Express Industry Council Of India (EICI), Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), e-commerce operators, members of the trade, officers working in the Directorate General Of Export Promotion, Directorate General of Systems and Customs field formations, have been held.

"The feedback received through the aforesaid consultations showed that a simplified regulatory framework is required for e-commerce exports of Jewellery through courier mode. This can be implemented through an SoP for bringing uniformity and certainty on the process and steps to be followed to facilitate such exports via International Courier Terminals (ICTs)," the CBIC said inviting comments on the draft SoP.

"This SoP is applicable on e-commerce export of jewellery made of precious metals (whether or not studded or set with precious or semi-precious stones) .... and imitation jewellery .... In the initial phase, the SoP will be implemented on ECCS (Express Cargo Clearance System) at ICT Mumbai, ICT Delhi and ICT Jaipur," the CBIC added.

AMRG & Associates Senior Partner Rajat Mohan said export of jewellery would bring foreign exchange to the country and contribute to the net disposable income of Indian designers, artisans, and skilled job workers.

"Integrating and easing jewellery export through e-commerce platforms would boost the livelihood of millions of people engaged in the sector," Mohan further said.

The new rules stipulate that jewellery export through courier mode is permitted only after receipt of full advance and photos of the export jewellery, product package/outer covering, product listing on the e-commerce platform and Hallmark certificate are uploaded on the customs system.

Reimports of physically damaged or defective Jewellery exported through courier mode are permitted subject to several conditions to keep menace makers at bay. Such restrictions are imposed to ensure that the original consignee returns initially shipped damaged goods to the original exporter within a short span of time," Mohan said.

KPMG in India Partner (Indirect Tax) Abhishek Jain said the jewellery manufacturers and traders involved in/ or intending to export jewellery out of India should closely study these SOP(s) and notifications and provide their suggestion in a timely manner.

He said that the member countries of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have let down the people of the LDCs (least developed countries) and developing nations.

"My country ramped up supplies of medical products to provide medical and health items globally. Unfortunately, the WTO could not respond with alacrity. We have let down the people of the LDCs and developing countries. The rich countries need to introspect! We need to bow our heads in shame for our inability to respond to the pandemic in time," he said.

Goyal is leading the Indian delegation for the 12th Ministerial Conference (MC) of the WTO. MC is the highest decision-making body of the WTO, and it is meeting after a gap of over four years. The meeting is being held in the backdrop of the Ukraine-Russia war and the global food and energy crisis.

He said the pandemic reinforced the importance of 'One Earth One Health', calling for global solidarity and collective action. The minister also said India strongly believes that the WTO should not negotiate rules on non-trade-related subjects like climate change and gender, which legitimately fall within the domain of other inter-governmental organisations.

The pandemic has reinforced once again the need and efficacy of food stockholding for the public good, he added. A permanent solution to the issue of public food stocks, which has already been delayed, should be the topmost priority for MC-12 before the members of the WTO move to new areas.

Nothing is more important than this for the people of the world," he noted. On the proposed agreement on fisheries subsidies, the minister said the right to life and livelihood of traditional fishermen cannot be curtailed in any manner.

On the contrary, he said, those nations responsible for depleted fish stock should assume responsibility, having exploited the oceans for far too long by giving subsidies.

"In conclusion, let me say that when the world is facing severe challenges and expects the WTO to deliver solutions, the MC12 must send a strong message that the rich care for the poor, vulnerable and marginalised people and that we have come together to give them a better future. The WTO should embrace a people-first approach to trade," he added.