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RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra on Friday exuded confidence that the monetary policy actions will be more moderate than the rest of the world, as inflation is expected to fall below 6 per cent in the January-March quarter of the current fiscal.

The Reserve Bank has already raised the key policy rate by 90 basis points in May and June to 4.9 per cent to tame high inflation, mainly due to supply disruptions on account of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Speaking at a session on 'Geo-Political Spill-overs and Indian Economy' at PHDCCI here, Patra said there are indications that inflation may be peaking.

"As monetary policy works through into the economy...inflation is expected to fall back into the threshold in the fourth quarter of 2022-23 and fall even further in the next year. This is only the baseline scenario," he said, adding that because of initiatives taken so far, the inflation may fall "sooner and faster".

"Therefore, in this world of global inflation crisis, it is possibly better to look at the change in inflation, not the level," said the Deputy Governor, who looks after the monetary policy department in the RBI.

He is also a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which decides the key policy rate (repo).

The government has tasked the RBI to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent with a two per cent deviation on either side.

While the retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 7.04 per cent in May from 7.8 per cent in April, it remained above the RBI's threshold of 6 per cent for the fifth month in a row.

"Against this backdrop, it is our hope that required monetary policy actions in India will be more moderate than elsewhere in the world and that we will be able to bring inflation back to target within a two-year time span. If the monsoon brings with it a more benign outlook on food prices, India would have tamed the inflation crisis even earlier," he said.

Observing that the decline in inflation will be very "grudging", Patra said India will "succeed in bending down the future trajectory of inflation and thereby it will win the war".

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank in its bi-monthly monetary policy review raised the benchmark repo rate -- at which it lends short-term money to banks -- by a sharp 0.50 per cent to 4.90 per cent to rein in spiralling prices. It followed an off-cycle meeting on May 4, when the central bank hiked the repo rate by 0.40 per cent.

The RBI had also raised the inflation projection to 6.7 per cent for the current fiscal year from its earlier forecast of 5.7 per cent.

The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled to take place during August 2-4, 2022.

Senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Friday criticised the government over the state of the Indian economy, asking if it was in the "pink of health" after high fiscal deficit, inflation, and the depreciating value of the Rupee. He also questioned the government for "backsliding on the fiscal deficit target for the current year.

"Within months of setting the FD target at 6.4 per cent for 2022-23, government is backsliding. Now, Government is saying it will 'try to keep the FD at 6.7 per cent', same as the level in 2021-22," the former finance minister said on Twitter.

"High FD, high inflation, huge FPI outflows, depreciating rupee, depletion of forex reserves -- what do they point to? Is the Indian economy in the pink of health," he questioned.

The Congress party and its leaders have been questioning the government's economic policies and accusing the BJP dispensation of "mismanaging" the country's economy.

The finance ministry's Department of Expenditure has argued against extending the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) beyond September or announcing any significant tax cuts, warning of the consequences for the Centre's fiscal position, a news report said.

The government in March extended the PMGKAY, the free food ration scheme rolled out during the Covid-led lockdown, for six months till September. The Centre has allocated Rs 2.07 trillion for food subsidies in the current fiscal year, while the extension of PMGKAY till September is expected to increase the subsidy bill to nearly Rs 2.87 trillion, The Economic Times reported.

If the government decides to extend the scheme further, it would cost the Centre another Rs 80,000 crore for another six months, swelling the food subsidy amount for FY23 to Rs 3.7 trillion.

Also Read: 'One Nation, One Ration Card' programme implemented across India

More tax cuts or food subsidy extensions would adversely hit the fiscal math, the union finance ministry's Department of Expenditure said in an internal note. The department said, "In particular, it is not advisable to continue the PMGKAY beyond its present extension, both on the grounds of food security and on fiscal grounds," quoted ET.

The Centre's recent decisions to extend free ration, hike fertiliser subsidy, reintroduce cooking gas subsidy, excise duty cut on petrol, diesel and cut in customs duty on edible oils have created a serious fiscal situation, the department said.

The Centre's move last month to cut excise duty on fuel to soften the blow of inflation will cause a revenue loss of about Rs 1 trillion, the note said.

To curb inflation, the Centre last month announced a reduction of excise duties on petrol and diesel by Rs 8 and Rs 6, respectively. At the same time, it also announced a subsidy of Rs 200 per domestic LPG cylinder for up to 12 cylinders in a year.

For FY23, the government has budgeted a fiscal deficit of 6.4 per cent of GDP, while Fitch Ratings expect it to be 6.8 per cent due to higher subsidies and revenue loss due to duty cuts.

Rice bran has become a sought-after commodity in India as the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to overcome an edible oil shortage caused by global supply disruptions.

A by-product in rice milling, rice bran has been traditionally used for cattle and poultry feed. In recent years, oil mills have started extracting rice oil, which is popular among health-conscious consumers but historically more expensive than rival oils.

Rice bran oil accounts for a small portion of overall vegoil consumption in India but is one of the fastest-growing among edible oils, industry officials say, and production and imports are set to increase to meet the demand.

The recent rally in global edible oil prices fuelled by Indonesia's restrictions on palm oil exports and disruptions to sunflower oil shipments from Ukraine has wiped out rice bran oil's traditional premium over rival oils. That has triggered a surge in demand for bran oil which has similar taste properties to sunflower oil.

As sunflower oil imports plunged from Ukraine, consumers started replacing it with rice bran oil, said B.V. Mehta, secretary general of the International Association of Rice Bran Oil (IARBO). India usually fulfills more than two-thirds of its sunflower oil requirements through imports from Ukraine.

"Because of COVID-19, I was looking for healthier food options. I first used rice bran oil for health benefits six months ago and since then I've been using it," said Aditi Sharma, a Mumbai-based homemaker, who switched to rice bran oil from sunflower oil.

"It tastes good and is good for health as well," Sharma said, referring to the oil's cholestrol-lowering and anti-oxidative properties.

In India, rice bran oil is now trading at 147,000 Indian rupees ($1,879) per tonne compared with sunflower oil at 170,000 rupees.

Rice bran oil usually commands around a 25% premium over other oils, but in recent months has been cheaper than imported vegetable oils, making it more affordable for the masses, according to data compiled by Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA).

Competitive prices boosted rice bran oil consumption since March and has encouraged companies to extract more oil.

Sharma said that even if premiums returned, she would still buy rice bran oil for her family of four.

FROM BY-PRODUCT TO MAIN

The demand for rice bran oil has become so strong that it has flipped the economics for rice millers, who are now prioritising bran oil output.

"For rice mills, instead of by-product, now rice bran has become a main product," said Puneet Goyal, chief executive officer at Ricela Group, the country's biggest producer of rice bran oil.

To meet rising demand Ricela is planning to increase oil refining capacity to 750 tonnes per day in the next two months from 600 tonnes, Goyal said.

With a vegetable oil shortage, oil mills are ready to pay record high prices for bran, said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association.

Rice bran prices have jumped to 30,000 rupees to 36,000 rupees per tonne compared with paddy prices of around 19,000 rupees, which is milled for rice extraction.

However, a shortage of oil processors in all rice milling areas remains a key limiting factor on bran oil supply, as rice bran must be processed into oil within 48 hours of being separated from chaff in order to be fit for human consumption.

Only 55% of bran is currently processed, with the remainder going to the lower priced feed market.

Even so, with several oil processors maximising output, the country is on course for record bran oil production of 1.05 million tonnes this year, up from around 950,000 tonnes in 2021, which should help India reduce imports of rival oils.

GROWING DEMAND

Edible oil consumption in India trebled over the past two decades as the population rose, incomes increased and people started to eat out more.

The country consumes around 23 million tonnes of vegetable oil per annum, with nearly 13 million tonnes coming from imports. Locally-produced bran oil can meet about 5% of overall vegoil consumption.

Companies such as Adani Wilmar, Emami and Cargill's Indian unit have launched their own rice bran oil brands to meet rising urban demand.

Rice bran oil brands have become popular and consumer acceptance has been rising, said Himanshu Agarwal, executive director at Satyam Balajee, India's biggest rice exporter.

"This new segment is just growing," Agarwal said, adding that companies previously offering mainly palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils were now launching rice bran oil products

Even institutional buyers such as PepsiCo and Haldirams are increasing use of bran oil for frying, said Goyal of Ricela.

But local supplies are not enough to cater to rising demand.

"A few companies are importing rice bran oil from Bangladesh, but even Bangladesh has limited surplus for the exports," said IARBO's Mehta.