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The Nifty rebounded and traded higher throughout the session to close more than half a percent higher on July 5, driven by banking & financials, metals, select auto, and FMCG stocks.

The index formed a bullish candle on the daily chart as the closing was higher than the opening level after forming a Hammer pattern on July 2. Experts feel 15,900 will be the crucial level to watch out for.

Though trading bias looks bullish, traders should wait for a close above 15,900 before creating long side bets, said Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory at Chartviewindia.in.

The Nifty50 opened higher at 15,793.40 and hit the day’s high of 15,845.95 in the final hours of trade. The index climbed 112.20 points to close at 15,834.40.

As long as the Nifty sustains above the day’s minor gap area of 15,762–15,738, it can bounce to the higher end of the range by retesting lifetime highs of around 15,915, Mohammad said.

India's manufacturing sector activities contracted for the first time in 11 months in June as rise in coronavirus cases and strict containment measures adversely impacted demand as well as resulted in job losses, a monthly survey said on Thursday.

The seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined to 48.1 in June from 50.8 in May.

The index fell below the critical 50.0 mark for the first time since July 2020. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.

The latest reading highlighted renewed contractions in factory orders, production, exports and quantities of purchases. Moreover, with business optimism fading over the month, job shedding continued, the survey said.

COVID-19 restrictions also curtailed international demand for Indian goods and new export orders decreased for the first time in ten months.

"The intensification of the COVID-19 crisis in India had a detrimental impact on the manufacturing economy. Growth of new orders, production, exports and input purchasing was interrupted in June as containment measures aimed at bringing the pandemic under control restrained demand," Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said.

Lima, however, noted that in all cases, rates of contraction were softer than during the first lockdown.

Business confidence was dampened in June by uncertainty over when the pandemic can be brought under control. Companies were at their least optimistic for almost a year. "As a result of subdued optimism, jobs were shed again in June," Lima said.

On the price front, input costs increased further in June, with firms reporting higher prices for chemicals, electronic components, energy, metals, and plastics.

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Additional cost burdens were again transferred on to clients, with goods producers hiking their fees for the tenth straight month, the survey said.

"Out of the three broad areas of the manufacturing sector monitored by the survey, capital goods was the worst affected area in June. The output here declined at a steep rate due to a sharp fall in sales.

"The sector also saw the fastest contraction in buying levels and was the only to post job shedding," Lima said.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

The dollar held firm on June 28 after slightly softer-than-expected US inflation did little to chip away investors' conviction that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy if consumer price pressures continue to intensify.

The dollar's index against six other major currencies was steady at 91.793, having recovered from Friday's low of 91.524 hit in the wake of the inflation readings.

The euro was little changed at $1.19385, struggling to recover the $1.20 level while the dollar consolidated at 110.80 yen, not far from Wednesday's 15-month high of 110.105.

The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.5% after advancing 0.7% in April.

In the 12 months through May, the so-called core PCE price index, the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, shot up 3.4%, the largest gain since April 1992.

Although inflation is expected to slow towards the year-end, signs of a tight labor market kept many investors fretting over wage-driven price pressures.

Among a raft of economic indicators due this week, Friday's payroll data is a key focus, with economists expecting an increase of 675,000 nonfarm payrolls.

"Depending on the outcome of the payroll's data, the market could start pricing in more chances of a rate hike next year," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

December 2022 Fed funds rate futures are almost fully pricing in a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the end of next year.

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The general mood around an ongoing economic recovery remained solid, as Republican Senate negotiators on an infrastructure deal were optimistic about a $1.2 trillion bipartisan bill after President Joe Biden withdrew his threat to veto the measure unless a separate Democratic spending plan also passes Congress.

Cryptocurrencies bounced back from their weekend lows but ended the week lower.

Bitcoin traded at $32,820, having declined 3.1% last week. Ether fetched $1,831, not far from Tuesday's three-month low of $1,700, and registering its third straight week of loss.

Britain's financial regulator said last week that Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, cannot conduct any regulated activity and issued a warning to consumers about the platform.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

Economic think-tank NCAER expects the Indian economy to grow 8.4-10.1 percent for the current financial year as against a contraction of 7.3 percent in the last fiscal.

Releasing its quarterly review of the economy, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has pitched for strong financial support to push economic growth.

"We estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 11.5 percent in Q1 (first quarter) and 8.4-10.1 percent for the whole year 2021–22.

"However, these high growth rates are also a reflection of strong base effect since 2021-22:Q1 follows the very steep decline in 2020-21:Q1. At the end of 2021-22 GDP, on constant prices, would still be about the same as Rs 146 trillion (Rs 146 lakh crore) as in 2019-20," the NCAER said in a statement.

The economic growth, according to NCAER's estimates, had contracted by 7.3 percent during 2020-21.

Business activity in the eurozone jumped at its fastest rate in 15 years this month, a closely watched survey said on Wednesday, as a reopened economy unleashed pent-up demand.

Economic data group IHS Markit said the "impressive progress" of vaccinations was jumpstarting the single-currency area, fuelled by eased restrictions that are at their lowest since September.

This "brightening prospect of life increasingly returning to normal has...  pushed confidence to an all-time high, fuelled greater spending and encouraged hiring," said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at IHS Markit.

Accordingly, the firm's PMI index -- which indicates trends in the manufacturing and service sectors -- said activity leaped from 57.1 in May to a booming 59.2 in June, far above the 50-point level that indicates growth.

The data set the scene for major growth in the second and third quarters, closing the chapter on a double-dip recession that came with the lockdowns of last autumn and winter, the firm said.

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The explosive growth was creating its own spillover effects, with supply chains under pressure and prices reflecting the sharp increase in demand, IHS Markit said.

"The strength of the upturn – both within Europe and globally – means firms are struggling to meet demand, suffering shortages of both raw materials and staff," Williamson said.

"Under these conditions, firms' pricing power will continue to build, inevitably putting further upward pressure on inflation in the coming months."

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

Working women are 2x more likely to be worried about availability of jobs compared to working men, says the LinkedIn Workforce Confidence Index.

The study showed that working women are also 4x less confident compared to working men, with the second wave of COVID-19 raging on.

Based on the survey responses of 1,891 professionals from May 8 to June 4, findings revealed that due to COVID-19 second wave, Indian professionals — particularly Gen Z and working women — increasingly vulnerable to the economic uncertainty in today’s evolving job market.

The latest edition of the LinkedIn Workforce Confidence Index shows that India’s overall workforce confidence has declined after peaking in early March, with a composite score of +54 today (down 4 points from +58 in March).

This dip in confidence is reflected strongly across professionals from creative industries such as Entertainment, Design, and Media & Communications, who expressed being uncertain about the future of their employers. But as several parts of the economy gradually reopen, professionals from Software & IT and Hardware & Networking are growing increasingly confident about the future of their organizations.

Gold shed more than 2 percent on June 17, precipitating a sell-off across precious metals with palladium set for its worst day in over a year, as the dollar gained ground after the US Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone on monetary strategy.

Spot gold fell 2% to $1,776.10 per ounce by 1:44 pm EDT (1744 GMT), having earlier touched its lowest since May 3 at $1,766.29.

U.S. gold futures settled down 4.7% at $1,774.80.

A majority of 11 Fed officials on Wednesday projected at least two quarter-point rates rise for 2023, although officials pledged to keep policy supportive for now to encourage a jobs recovery.

The announcement propelled the dollar to an over two-month high, eroding bullion's allure for those holding other currencies, and drove a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

"The Fed's dot plot is providing a clear change in tone, ultimately suggesting that although the Fed continues to reiterate that inflation is transitory, their formal assessment of risks to the economy is decisively more hawkish," TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said.

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Weakening physical demand and slowing speculative flows into gold, both of which began before the Fed meeting, could also help to drive a further pullback, Ghali added.

Adding to gold's headwinds, the U.S. central bank said it would consider whether it should taper its asset purchases at every subsequent policy meeting.

Jeffrey Christian, the managing partner at CPM Group, also said the scale of gold's sell-off was accentuated by bearish technicals, and that the steeper decline in gold futures "reflects the fact that you have more trading volume and more technically oriented investors in the futures market than in spot."

Palladium led the sell-off, tumbling 10% to $2,517.18, while platinum fell 6.6% to $1,048.44.Palladium could be seeing a correction in a rally that some view as overdone, Christian added.

Silver slipped 4.3% to $25.81 per ounce.

Article Source:- Moneycontrol

New Delhi, Jun 15 Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd, which operates fast-food chains Domino's Pizza and Dunkin' Donuts, on Tuesday reported over threefold jump in its consolidated net profit at Rs 105.30 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2021. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 32.53 crore in the January-March quarter a year ago, Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL) said in a regulatory filing.

Its revenue from operations was at Rs 1,037.85 crore, up 14.21 percent, during the quarter under review, as against Rs 908.75 crore in the corresponding quarter of the fiscal year 2019-20. "This was driven by Domino's Like-for-Like (LFL) sales growth (adjusted for temporary restaurant closures) of 15.1 percent and same-store growth (SSG) of 11.8 percent. Domino's witnessed continued momentum in Delivery and Takeaway channels which grew by 28.7 per cent and 76.9 per cent respectively, it said.

JFL's total expenses were at Rs 912.70 crore, up 4.31 percent in Q4/FY 2020-21 as against Rs 875 crore in the same period a year ago. During the quarter, JFL opened 50 new restaurants for Domino's Pizza adding 8 cities in its network and closed 4 stores of Domino's Pizza. It was operating a total of 1,360 restaurants across 293 cities as of March 31, 2021.

Meanwhile, the company opened one restaurant for Dunkin' Donuts and closed 4 restaurants, bringing the number down to 24 from 27 at the beginning of the period. JFL also opened one restaurant each of its new QSR Brands Hong's Kitchen and Ekdum!, taking the total count to 12 by the end of the quarter.

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