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Rise in cash in circulation for April-July stands at Rs 50,800 cr: RBI data

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The currency in circulation had jumped by over Rs 4 trillion in 2020-21, while the increase tapered to Rs 2.80 trillion in the last financial year


Photo: Bloomberg

India’s currency in circulation has increased by only around Rs 500 billion in the first four months of this financial year, which is nearly half the pace of the same period a year ago.

“Economic activity is completely back to pre-pandemic levels, and hence there is hardly any need for panic-driven cash withdrawals, which is leading to a drop in cash in circulation,” a trader with a state-run bank said.

The rise in the cash in circulation for April-July stood at Rs 508 billion ($6.38 billion), as compared to Rs 928 billion for the similar period last year and a mammoth Rs 2.25 trillion in 2020-21, the peak of lockdown, data from the  showed. The currency in circulation had jumped by over Rs 4 trillion in 2020-21, while the increase tapered to Rs 2.80 trillion in the last financial year, and market participants ex­pect another drop in the current year.

Meanwhile, India’s banking system liquidity surplus remains around Rs 2 trillion, and Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the surplus to ease to around Rs 1.50 trillion by the end of this week.

MPC hikes repo rate by 50 bps to 5.40%; Covid-era cuts reversed entirely

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Committee retains FY23 CPI forecast at 6.7%, flags uncertainty on inflation trajectory

**EDS: SCREENSHOT FROM A VIDEO POSTED BY @RBI ON WEDNESDAY, JUNE 8, 2022.** Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das digitally delivers a statement. (PTI Photo)(


The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MP) on Friday announced a 50 basis point hike in the repo rate to 5.40 per cent, citing continued upside risks to inflation.

The Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) rate is now at 5.15 per cent, while the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) Rate stands at 5.65 per cent. The SDF represents the lower band of the interest rate corridor and the MSF the higher.

A 'Business Standard' poll on Monday predicted a 35-50 basis-point increase in the repo rate at this week’s policy statement. The benchmark policy repo rate is now at the highest since August 2019.

As in its June policy statement, the MPC said this morning the rate-setting panel was focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. Given that the MPC is on a policy-tightening path, some economists had called for a shift in stance to neutral or calibrated tightening.

The latest rate action takes the total tally of rate hikes since May to 140 basis points. Accounting for the introduction of the SDF at a higher rate than the reverse repo rate in April, effective rate hikes stand at 180 bps so far in 2022.

“Spillovers from geopolitical shocks are imparting considerable uncertainty to the inflation trajectory. More recently, food and metal prices have come off their peaks,” said the MPC’s statement.

“International crude oil prices have eased in recent weeks but remain elevated and volatile on supply concerns even as the global demand outlook is weakening. The appreciation of the US dollar can feed into imported inflation pressures.”

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has remained above the upper band of the RBI’s mandated 2-6 per cent range for six straight months up to June 2022.

The June inflation print was at 7.01 per cent. The RBI’s medium-term target for CPI inflation is 4 per cent.

Upside risks to domestic inflation increased significantly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February led to a sharp rise in global commodity prices.

ALSO READ: Rate sensitive shares trade firm as RBI hikes repo rate by 50 bps to 5.4%

The RBI retained its CPI inflation forecast of 6.7 per cent for the current financial year, with risks evenly balanced. The CPI forecast assumes the average price of crude oil for the Indian basket at $105 per barrel.

CPI inflation is seen at 7.1 per cent in July-September, 6.4 per cent in October-December and 5.8 per cent in January-March. The price gauge is seen at 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24.

The RBI’s forecast point to the likelihood of the MPC failing to meet the mandate of ensuring that average inflation does not sustain above the target band for more than three successive quarters. In the event of failure, the RBI must provide an explanation to the government.

The MPC on Friday retained the real GDP growth forecast of 7.2 per cent for the current financial year. GDP growth for the first quarter of the next financial year is seen at 6.7 per cent.

Bond prices fell sharply after the policy statement with the yield on the 10-year benchmark bond climbing 10 basis points to 7.26 per cent. The bond market had hoped for a rate hike of 35 bps along with signals that the RBI may temper future rate hikes.

The rupee appreciated sharply versus the US dollar and was last at 79.07 per dollar compared to 79.47 per dollar at the previous close on Thursday.

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Fuel Prices Today on August 5: Check petrol, diesel rates in Delhi, Mumbai, and other cities

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Petrol in Mumbai is being sold for Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel for Rs 94.27. Petrol in Delhi costs Rs 96.72 and diesel Rs 89.62 a litre. Petrol and diesel are priced at Rs 102.63 and Rs 94.24 in Chennai and at Rs 106.03 and Rs 92.76 in Kolkata respectively.Fuel Prices Today on August 5: Check petrol, diesel rates in Delhi, Mumbai,  and other cities

Petrol and diesel prices held steady on August 5, the latest price notification issued by fuel retailers showed. Fuel prices have stayed unchanged for more than a month.

Petrol in Mumbai is being sold for Rs 106.31 per litre and diesel for Rs 94.27. Petrol in Delhi costs Rs 96.72 and diesel Rs 89.62 a litre. Petrol and diesel are priced at Rs 102.63 and Rs 94.24 in Chennai and at Rs 106.03 and Rs 92.76 in Kolkata respectively.

Oil marketing companies are reportedly incurring a loss of Rs 13.08 a litre on petrol and Rs 24.09 on diesel. India meets 80 percent of its fuel needs through imports.

Oil prices extend losses on demand worries

Oil prices extended losses on Friday, after hitting their lowest since before Russia's February invasion of Ukraine in the previous session, as the market fretted over the impact of inflation on global economic growth and demand.

Brent crude dropped 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $94.02 a barrel by 0047 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $88.48 a barrel, down 6 cents.

"Crude oil fell further on demand concerns on a cloudy economic outlook," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. "If commodities are not pricing in an imminent economic recession, they might be preparing for a 'stagflation' era when the unemployment rate starts picking up and inflation stays high."

Windfall tax hiked on petroleum crude, lowered on diesel, ATF exports

The windfall tax has been raised on petroleum crude, and slashed on the exports of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF), as per a government notification.

The export tax on petroleum crude has been increased from Rs 17,000 to Rs 17,750 per tonne, the notification stated.

The windfall tax on diesel has been reduced from Rs 11 to Rs 5 per litre, whereas it has been waived off on the export of ATF. Before the revision order was issued, ATF exports were taxed at Rs 4 per litre.

The government has also decided to maintain nil duty on the export of petrol.

MGL hikes CNG price by Rs 6 per kg, PNG by Rs 4 a unit

Within a month, city gas distributor Mahanagar Gas Ltd (MGL) has announced the second price hike of Rs 6 per kilogram for CNG and by Rs 4 a unit for piped natural gas (PNG) with immediate effect.

The price revision comes amidst rising prices of the natural gas at source both internationally as well as for domestically drilled gas. Rising prices have forced suppliers and distributors to cut down on industrial supplies since the past many weeks.

This is the sixth price hike since April this year. "Due to the significant increase in input gas cost, we have decided to recover the cost. Accordingly, we've increased the retail price of CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) to Rs 86 (per kilogram) and domestic PNG (Piped Natural Gas) by Rs 4/SCM (standard cubic meter) to Rs 52.50 in and around Mumbai, effective from this midnight," MGL said in a statement.

 

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