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MPC to start with a 20 bps reverse repo rate hike in February, then will change accommodative policy stance to neutral

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In the upcoming meeting, we expect Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to build a case for modest and measured policy tightening, in order to keep bond market sentiments in check.

RBI may hike reverse repo rate by 20 bps outside MPC: SBI report
Finally, it feels like we’re past the pandemic after a long-drawn encounter. It has had a scarring effect not just on our lives but also on the global economic landscape. While the fiscal and monetary impetus provided during the pandemic ensured a quick economic turnaround, in its aftermath the financial system is now left to support record-high sovereign debts and rich asset valuations with little or no central bank support. This transition from pandemic to endemic, although much desirable, is turning out to be an uncomfortable change for stimulus-addicted financial markets.

In a bid to counter the pandemic, governments across the globe had loosened the purse strings on borrowed money. In the US, notional government debt just hit a record $30 trillion, with their debt to GDP ratio at 125 percent against 104 percent just before the pandemic. In India, the notional outstanding government securities is projected to cross Rs 90 lakh crore by the end of FY23, up 50 percent from Rs 60 lakh crore in FY20. In spite of such large increases in borrowings, sovereign bond yields were thus far orderly because the bulk of these debt issuances were supported by central banks buying.

Also read: Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

This central bank support to government borrowing was a great source of market comfort while it lasted. But for every stimulus sugar rush, there is a bitter tapering pill. The ongoing transition from pandemic to endemic means that excess monetary accommodation is being scaled back. A high level of “not so transitory” inflation is only serving to accelerate this process, as central banks increasingly find themselves falling behind the curve. In other words, monetary policy normalisation is closely following our exit from the pandemic.

On the other hand, the glide path to fiscal consolidation is a relatively slow process. Hence, government borrowings are likely to remain elevated. Absent central bank buying, bond markets will now have to absorb this high supply predominantly on their own. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is concluding its asset purchase programme by March and has already signalled monetary tightening soon after. The Bank of England has delivered two consecutive rate hikes and the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently put an end to its government bond purchases.


Also read: Cut in funds for welfare schemes; no steps for inflation or job creation: Shashi Tharoor on Budget

ided the necessary emphasis on capital spending, but that has come at the cost of a large borrowing programme for FY23. Even as headline inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target band, inflationary pressures persist as oil inches up towards $100 a barrel and WPI inflation remains in double digits. With policy normalisation already underway, RBI support to bond markets is expected to remain constrained. This has weighed on bond market sentiments. However, the recent sharp rise in bond yields may already have tightened the financial conditions a bit too hastily for RBI’s comfort.

In the upcoming meeting, we expect the monetary policy committee (MPC) to build a case for modest and measured policy tightening in order to keep bond market sentiments in check. We believe the MPC will gradually normalise the repo rate-reverse repo corridor (to 25 bps) over the next two meetings, starting with a 20 bps reverse repo rate hike in February. Subsequently, the MPC will change its accommodative policy stance to neutral, eventually embarking on a gradual rate hike cycle.

Also read: Budget 2022| PSUs are due for upwards re-rating, even with the lower disinvestment target: ICICI Prudential’s S Naren

In our view, MPC guidance on liquidity normalisation may also be equally unhurried, with the introduction of incrementally longer tenor VRRRs (variable reverse repo rate) over a period. Difficult as it may be, going forward, the RBI has to deftly and non-disruptively juggle its conflicting objectives on inflation, liquidity normalisation and management of the government’s borrowing program. Along the way, sometimes the market may remain orderly, but at times it may not.


Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

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The country's largest and the only state-owned insurer LIC registered a decline of 1.58 per cent in new premium income at Rs 12,936.28 crore in January 2022, as against Rs 13,143.64 crore in the same month a year ago.

Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

The new business premium income of all the life insurance companies grew 2.65 per cent to Rs 21,957 crore in January 2022, data from Irdai showed.

The 24 life insurance companies had collected Rs 21,389.70 crore as the first year or the new business premium in January 2021. The country's largest and the only state-owned insurer LIC registered a decline of 1.58 per cent in new premium income at Rs 12,936.28 crore in January 2022, as against Rs 13,143.64 crore in the same month a year ago.

The rest 23 private sector players witnessed 9.39 per cent growth in their collective new business premium at Rs 9,020.75 crore from Rs 8,246.06 crore, showed the data from Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai).

On a cumulative basis, the new premium income of all the 24 life insurers during April-January period of 2021-22 was up 6.94 per cent at Rs 2,27,188.89 crore.

LIC's cumulative new business income during this period showed a decline of 2.93 per cent to Rs 1,38,951.30 crore. On the other hand, the private players witnessed 27.35 per cent jump in their collective cumulative new business income in April-January at Rs 88,237.60 crore, showed the Irdai data. In terms of market share, LIC held 61.16 per cent of the pie.


Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

http://sharetipsinfo.comJust get registered at Sharetipsinfo and earn positive returns

www.ShareTipsInfo.com

The country's largest and the only state-owned insurer LIC registered a decline of 1.58 per cent in new premium income at Rs 12,936.28 crore in January 2022, as against Rs 13,143.64 crore in the same month a year ago.

Life insurers' new premium income up 3% to Rs 21,957 crore in January

The new business premium income of all the life insurance companies grew 2.65 per cent to Rs 21,957 crore in January 2022, data from Irdai showed.

The 24 life insurance companies had collected Rs 21,389.70 crore as the first year or the new business premium in January 2021. The country's largest and the only state-owned insurer LIC registered a decline of 1.58 per cent in new premium income at Rs 12,936.28 crore in January 2022, as against Rs 13,143.64 crore in the same month a year ago.

The rest 23 private sector players witnessed 9.39 per cent growth in their collective new business premium at Rs 9,020.75 crore from Rs 8,246.06 crore, showed the data from Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (Irdai).

On a cumulative basis, the new premium income of all the 24 life insurers during April-January period of 2021-22 was up 6.94 per cent at Rs 2,27,188.89 crore.

LIC's cumulative new business income during this period showed a decline of 2.93 per cent to Rs 1,38,951.30 crore. On the other hand, the private players witnessed 27.35 per cent jump in their collective cumulative new business income in April-January at Rs 88,237.60 crore, showed the Irdai data. In terms of market share, LIC held 61.16 per cent of the pie.


Cut in funds for welfare schemes; no steps for inflation or job creation: Shashi Tharoor on Budget

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Initiating the discussion on the Budget in the Lok Sabha, he said COVID-19 pandemic placed the citizens in unimaginable distress and they suffered a lot of pain due to loss of lives between March and May last year.Cut in funds for welfare schemes; no steps for inflation or job creation: Shashi  Tharoor on Budget

Attacking the Centre, Congress leader Shashi Tharoor on Monday said there were significant cuts in allocation of social welfare schemes in the Union Budget and there were no measures to address rising inflation or targeted efforts towards job creation.

Initiating the discussion on the Budget in the Lok Sabha, he said COVID-19 pandemic placed the citizens in unimaginable distress and they suffered a lot of pain due to loss of lives between March and May last year.

In this context, he said, the presentation of a budget annually cannot merely be seen as purely routine economic exercise, rather it is an instrument through which the government of the day presents a political vision to manage the economy, heal the country and to set it on the path to recovery.

There is a “significant slashing of the MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act) scheme, more tokenism in credit support for the MSME sector, no changes in the personal income tax regime and no relief in terms of addressing rising inflation, no targeted efforts for job creation”, he said.

The budget has proposed creation of “inadequate” 60 lakh jobs in five years which is “a far cry from the 2 crore jobs the government had promised in the equally illusory ‘acche din’  (good days)”, Tharoor said.

He added that there are reductions in the budget for social welfare programmes, schemes for crop insurance, MSP (minimum support price) and fertlisers, which have leD many farmer groups to term this Budget a “revenge budget”.

The Congress leader also claimed a huge dip in the incomes of lakhs of people in the last five years.

While the wealth of thw richest 100 Indians soared by Rs 57 lakh crore, 4.7 crore Indians slipped into extreme poverty, he said, adding that the government has not recognised the problems which they have caused and the widespread anguish they have inflicted on the common people.

The Congress leader said that the budget has not meet the expectations of the middle class and the poor.

He said there were three broad expectations the nation had from the budget. The first one was that the government would acknowledge the problem the nation is facing, acknowledge that the country is facing unprecedented levels of unemployment which has left countless citizens, specially young and dynamic working age population, with little prospects for a brighter tomorrow, Tharoor said.

The government, he said, admitted that one-fifth of India’s population has plunged a staggering 53 per cent in the last five years in terms of their income.

The government should have also acknowledged that the Indian middle class has been left defenceless in the face of rising inflation, shrinking incomes and the consequent acceleration in household debt, besides recognising the widespread distress and anguish in the agrarian economy, he said.

On the contentious farm laws, he said the legislations drove hundreds of farmers to sit for protest in cold winters, harsh summer sun and in the soaking monsoon rain, in a cause for which over 670 of them gave their lives.

The former minister criticised the government for allegedly having scant regard for the fundamental conventions or institutions of the country that have traditionally guided India’s democracy.

Citing a couplet, he said, “We have been left bitterly disappointed by this government’s unwillingness to offer even a token recognition of the problems they have caused, of the widespread anguish they have inflicted upon the aam aadmi, the unemployed youth, our farmers who are still facing the existential crisis caused by this government.” This House, he said, has not forgotten the prime minister’s talk about zero budget natural farming, because his government “has left zero” in the budget for farmers.

Further, the Congress leader said the people were expecting the government to announce some concrete actions and corrective measures to address the “multi-pronged calamities” that it had caused them.

“… and an expectation to address the increasing unemployment crisis and declining labour force participation by developing targeted measures for job creation and strengthening existing job guarantee schemes like MNREGA,” he noted.

The people, the Congress leader said, were also expecting it to mitigate the impact of the pandemic induced crisis, reduction in income tax or at least raising the exemption slab to Rs 5 lakh.

On inflation, he said there is an unprecedented rise in the prices of basic commodities.

Tharoor said the government repeatedly increased excise duty on fuel and was not able to tackle the issue of increase in prices of basic commodities like LPG cylinders, pulses and edible oils.

LPG prices in Delhi gone up from Rs 502 to Rs 899, he said, adding “is that the ecosystem they would like to talk about?” “And where our farmers are concerned, (there was) an expectation to fix the cracks in our MSP and offer them support in terms of procurement of basic commodities like fertilisers at a time when the prices of raw materials are sky rocketing. Sadly, this government’s budget has given the nation exactly the opposite,” he said.

Tharoor also alleged that the government has failed to address the concerns of the common people.

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